scaling and modeling of larval settlement satoshi mitarai oct. 19, 2005
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Scaling and Modeling of Larval Settlement
Satoshi Mitarai
Oct. 19, 2005
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GOAL OF “FLOW”
• Assess larval dispersal scales using idealized simulations of California Current
• Develop simple modeling to establish source-destination relationships– Without fluid dynamics simulations, which are
time consuming
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WHAT’S NEW?
• Weak upwelling case is added
• Larval dispersal scales are quantified
• A simple model to establish source-destination relationships is proposed– Accounts for spatial scales properly
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TEMPERATURE FIELD(TOP VIEW)
Strong upwelling Weak upwelling
Summer Winter
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MEAN TEMPERATURE FIELD(SUMMER)
Simulation CalCOFI
Shows reasonable agreement with CalCOFI data
(Averaged over 6 realizations)
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MEAN TEMPERATURE FIELD(WINTER)
Simulation CalCOFI
Shows a good agreement with CalCOFI data
(Averaged over 6 realizations)
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LARVAL TRAJECTORIESSummer Winter
Eddies sweep larvae into “packet” which stays together thru much of pelagic stage
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LAGRANGIAN STATISTICS
3.4 / 4.340 / 484.2 / 4.6Poulain et al
(1998)
4.3 / 4.532 / 382.9 / 3.5Swenson et al
(2001)
1.6 / 1.829 / 296.9 / 5.7Winter
Simulations
3.1 / 4.131 / 353.7 / 3.7Summer
Simulations
Diffusivity
Zonal / Merid
Length Scale
Zonal / Merid
Time scale
Zonal / MeridData Set
Winter shows more correlation in time
& less diffusivity
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LARVAL TRANSPORT& SETTLEMENT
Summer Winter
More settlers are observed in winter
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ONLY SETTLERSSummer Winter
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ALONGSHORE DISPERSAL KERNEL
Summer Winter
Gaussian fitting
More alongshore travel distance in summer
(Obtained from 6 realizations)
AVG = -122 km, STD = 103 km AVG = -80 km, STD = 92 km
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CROSS-SHORE DISPERSAL KERNEL
Lognormal fitting
Summer Winter
More offshore travel distance in summerSettlers move out nearshore habitat before settle
(Obtained from 6 realizations)
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ARRIVAL DIAGRAMSummer
15 days
21 days
43 km
64 km
Using variogram …
Winter
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CONNECTIVITY MATRIXSummer Winter
48 km 53 km
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SUMMARY
• Travel distance & survivability shows difference between summer & winter– More travel distance in summer
– Lower survivability in summer
• Settlement scales do not show much difference between summer & winter– Arrival length ~ 50 km
– Arrival time ~ a few weeks
– Connectivity length ~ 50 km
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CONNECTIVITY MATRIX MODELDiffusion model Spiky kernel model
Neither one accounts for spatial structures
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A NEW MODEL FOR CONNECTIVITY MATRIX
• Idea: model settlement events as a summation of “settlement packets”– Number
– Size
– Source locations
– Travel distance
Rossby radius (~50 km)
Randomly (uniform distribution)
Randomly (dispersal kernel)
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• Determine # of settlement packets N = (T/t) (L/l) f (D/l)
NUMBER OF SETTLEMENT PACKETS
T: Larval release duration t: Lagrangian correlation time L: domain size l: Rossby radius f: survivabilityD: standard deviation of dispersal kernel
Total # of released packets
# of settlement events per packet
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MODEL PREDICTIONSSummer Winter
Accounts for spatial structures
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DIFFUSION LIMIT
Packet model
1 season 6 seasons 12 seasons 120 seasons
1 season 6 seasons 12 seasons Diffusion
Flow simulation Diffusion model
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NEXT STEPS
• Use proposed model in F3 model
• Investigate effect of larval behavior– Preliminary study has been already done
• Investigate effect of coastal topography
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LAGRANGIAN STATISTICS
3.4 / 4.340 / 484.2 / 4.6Poulain et al
(1998)
4.3 / 4.532 / 382.9 / 3.5Swenson et al
(2001)
1.6 / 1.829 / 296.9 / 5.7Winter
Simulations
3.1 / 4.131 / 353.7 / 3.7Summer
Simulations
Diffusivity
Zonal / Merid
Length Scale
Zonal / Merid
Time scale
Zonal / MeridData Set
Simulations: 6 realizations, 6000 particles
Swenson et al (2001): late spring to early fall, 1985-1990, 124 drifters, 18N-40N
Poulain et al (1998): early spring to late fall, 1985-1986, 29 drifters, 18N-36N