SCALING UP RENEWABLE ENERGY (SURE) II System Planning to Scale Up Renewables

Dorian Mead, USAID

Victor Bedoya, Tetra Tech

Pramod Jain, Innovative Wind Energy, Inc.

May 27, 20211

Scaling Up Renewable Energy (SURE) Goals

Strategic Energy

Planning

Circular Economy of

RE

Grid Integration

of RE

RE Innovation

Fund

Competitive Procurement

of RE

Integrate emerging considerations into traditional planning processes to improve power sector performance

Procure clean energy at competitive prices and promote private investment

Systematically address grid integration issues to avoid costly curtailment of renewables and other sources

Support the transition toward a more circular economy for renewable energy

Harness open innovation and partnering approaches

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Agenda1. Planning approaches for renewable development

2. Strategic energy planning and resource adequacy

3. Development of RE zones

4. Q&A

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USAID’s SURE aims to help partner countries' institutions leverage emerging best practicesfor strategic energy planning that can result in the successful scale-up of renewable energy.

• Socialize emerging best practices and experiences in strategic energy planning

• Improve capacity on strategic power sector planning in high RE and energy efficiency(EE) scenarios

• Link strategic energy planning approaches to investment and implementation programssuch as RE competitive procurement programs

• Encourage the private sector, including developers, prosumers, network operators,service providers, legislators, investors, and aggregators to participate in energyplanning.

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Objectives

3/5/2021

Today’s Webinar

This is a 50-minute presentation followed by a 10-minute Q&A. For questions, please enter them in the Q&A box.

The webinar will be recorded and housed on SURE’s training and events page. Visit usaid.gov/energy/sure/energy-planning for more resources following this webinar!

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Victor Bedoya. Electrical Engineer, MSc. Tetra Tech – Energy Sector Senior Associate Victor.bedoyarestrepo@tetratech.com

Experience: USA, Colombia, Kenya, Ukraine

Strategic energy planning, climate change policies, integration of renewable energy sources into power systems, preparation and supervision of investment operations in the energy sector.

Pramod Jain, Ph.D. President, Innovative Wind Energy, Inc.Pramod@i-windenergy.com

Experience: USA, Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan), Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Caribbean, Guyana, Lebanon, Mongolia, Myanmar, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Zambia

RE zones, wind and solar resource assessments, renewable energy grid integration studies, power markets, digitalization of power systems.

Speaker Biographies

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Planning Approaches for Renewable Development

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What is affecting renewable energy development?

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Climate Change

Toward net zero emissions

Most countries aren’t hitting 2030 climate goals. COP26 will bring parties together to accelerate action toward

the Paris agreement goals.

Countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions ASAP to achieve a climate-neutral

world by mid-century.

COP26 Glasgow in November 2021

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Solar reaches US 1.04 c/kWh in UAEStorage + PV are hitting US 5 to 6 c/kWh

Grid modernization to accommodate all rapid technology changes

Carbon Footprint - Technology Prices - Grid Modernization – COVID-19

Solar/wind 4-6 gCO2e/kWh Coal: (109g) Gas: (78g)

Covid-19

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Electricity market monitoring is based on system planning. Energy markets must be monitored always to maintain electricity security standards.

The post-market eraGeneration additions and retirements are based on market signals. Can the electricity market solve all energy issues on its own?

Renewable energy (RE) comes with variability,which brings the need for multiple planning tools and market improvements

Operational Security

Adequacy

Reliability

Resilience

Robustness

Stability

Keeping the Lights On

Electricity Security

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Resource Adequacy Assessment

Assess the overall adequacy of the power system to

supply current and projected demand

Energy Transition StrategyLow-carbon action plan in the power sector to start leading

change and meeting sustainable goals

Grid Modernization PlanIdentifies the investments and

changes in the grid to manage a large RE fleet, DERs.

Development of RE ZonesIdentifies the zones with the highest potential for low-cost

RE development

Flexibility and Reserves Plan

Determine how much flexibility exists in the power

system and reserves required

Integrated Resource & Resilience Planning

Determine the adequacy of generation and transmission

resources to achieve reliability standards

Green RecoveryGreen action plan to prioritize

renewable energy, efficiency, grid modernization and electric

vehicles, even considering low oil and gas prices

Network Development Plan, RE Component

Identifies the transmission facilities needed to meet the

requirements of a growing RE fleet

RE Procurement PlanVolume and approach used for procuring renewable energy as

technology prices drop

Energy Planning Approaches for Renewable Development

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Strategic Energy Planning & Resource Adequacy

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Colombia

Case Studies

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Energy System Description: Colombia

Energy system reliability is challenging due to high hydropower share and water inflow uncertainty

Peak demand 10 GWEnergy demand 198 GWh-day

Active interconnection with EcuadorDiscontinued interconnection with Venezuela

Future interconnection with Panama

Current installed capacity 17,532 MW

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Strategic Energy Planning: Colombia

El Niño is a weather phenomenon without standard periodicity that brings drought in

Colombia

Hydropower Inflows During El Niño

Total Reservoir Capacity

Draught experienced between 1992 and 1993 resulted in almost one year of power shortages

El Niño phenomenon

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• Colombia’s electricity market began in 1994

• The electricity market is composed of long-term and short-term transactions.

Long-term: Bilateral contracts

Short-term: Spot market and secondary reserve market.

• Reliability charge is a mechanism to ensure power supply duringdroughts. The generators participate in an energy auctionprocess and are compensated for availability during theawarded period.

Reliability remuneration mechanism

Long-term transactions

Short-term transactions

Strategic Energy Planning: Colombia

Electricity Market

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Resource Adequacy: Colombia

• Colombia’s Mining and Energy PlanningUnit (UPME) is responsible for thesustainable development of thecountry’s energy sector.

• UPME provides an indicative RA studyfor the electricity market based onleast-cost generation planning (LCGP).It focuses on energy security supply(system resilience) and systemreliability.

The Colombian government supports the highest scored scenario

Resource Adequacy (RA)Scenarios evaluated according to:

Resilience

CAPEX and OPEX

Greenhouse gas emissions

Generation mixes based on:

Country resources

Registered projects

Projects with connection request

LCG

P

SDDP: Stochastic Dual-Dynamic Programming

OptGen: Mixed Integer Programming (MIP)

Energy Planning Tools Used by UPME

Linear programming (LP) and MIP for economic dispatch.

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Toward net zero emissions by 2050: Colombia increased from 20 percent to 51percent its ambitious target for reducing greenhouse gases by 2030. Carbon taxes arecurrently evaluated by the government.

Emerging technologies: The country has recently auctioned and signed powerpurchase agreements (PPAs) for more than 2200 MW of RES by the end of 2022 andit is procuring 50 MW in batteries to be commissioned in 2022.

El Niño phenomenon: The resource adequacy considers critical hydropower inflowsdue to El Niño. The objective is to identify the most resilient generation mixes.

Environmental restrictions for hydropower plants: The country is studying newrestrictions related to environmental flows (Eflows) that affect water utilization andoperational flexibility.

Available resources in the country: The resource adequacy considers registeredprojects and projects with connection requests from private investors.

Resource Adequacy: Colombia

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Strategic Energy Planning and Resource Adequacy: Colombia

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tech

nolo

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Future scenarios considered in the Colombian power system according to their Resource Adequacy Study

coalWind WindOff Geother Hydro DHydro Therm D

Fuel oilBiomass

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Scenario considering carbon tax

Scenario considering EFlows

Generation by technology ---- Installed capacity by 2050: 44,144 MW

Installed Capacity 2034 – 30,143 MWGeneration by technology

Installed Capacity 2034 – 29,058 MWGeneration by technology

Ukraine

Case Studies

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Strategic Energy Planning: Ukraine

Ukrainian peak demand: 18,500 MW Energy demand: 395 GWh-day

Ukraine’s mainland is currently interconnected with the Russia-Belarus system. Burshtyn energy Island is interconnected with ENTSO-E.

Ukraine is preparing its whole power system to be interconnected with ENTSO-E by 2023

Current installed capacityUkraine’s interconnections

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• USAID and the Energy Security Project (ESP), which is implemented by Tetra Tech, are supporting Ukraine on its plan to join the European Union and ENTSO-E by 2023.

• Ukraine restructured its wholesale electricity market in mid-2019, including bilateral contracts, day-ahead, intraday,balancing, and ancillary services markets.

• Ukraine is preparing its integrated power system (IPS) to operate in island mode as one of the main steps necessary prior to interconnection with ENTSO-E.

• The electricity sector is also preparing its energy planning studies according to EU standards.

• Ukraine is aiming to get to net zero emissions by 2060.

European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) represents

42 electricity transmission system operators from 35 countries

Strategic Energy Planning: Ukraine

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• ERAA has been developed in line with the principles of electricitymarket operation. The methodology helps to ensure that safe andsustainable generation, energy storage, and demand response operateon equal footing in the electricity market.

• The methodology is based on central reference scenarios for demandversus supply, economic assessment, energy efficiency,interconnection targets, and system resilience.

• The assessment is performed until the reliability standard (RS) isfulfilled. If the RS is not fulfilled, a RA concern is identified and shouldbe addressed by improvements to the market rules or by theintroduction of a temporary capacity mechanism.

(Regulation (EU) 2019/ 943 This study is ongoing in Ukraine)

Resource Adequacy: ENTSO-E

Methodology of the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA):

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Resource Adequacy: ENTSO-E

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ERAA methodology is based on three concepts:

Development of Renewable Energy Zones

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Source: David Hurlbut, Ilya Chernyakhovskiy, and Jaquelin Cochran, Renewable Energy Zones: Delivering Clean Power to Meet Demand, NREL, 2016 27

Example of RE Zone in Texas, USA

5/20/2021

Project duration: 2005–2014 Power evacuation capacity added:18.5 GWLength of new 345 kV T-Lines: 3,862 Km Project cost: $6.9 billion

What is an RE zone?“An RE zone is a geographic area that enables the development of profitable and cost-effective grid-connected renewable energy”

5/20/2021

Source: “Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) Transmission Planning Process: A Guidebook for Practitioners”,

September 2017 28

Introduction to Renewable Energy (RE) Zone

Desirable properties of RE zones:

• High resource density

• Large land area to hold 500 to 1000 MW

• Grid and logistics infrastructure

• Environmentally approved

• Pre-approved licenses and land permits

• Clearly defined land parcels for auctions

Objectives of RE zones:

• Provide lower cost RE to the grid: procurement

tariff and grid integration cost

• Attract private capital by lowering risk

• Prepare for successful auction

• Increase RE penetration while minimizing its

impact on the grid

Parameter weightsZone scoring

Other considerations

Resourcemeasurement campaign

Transmission upgradeAuction

Parameter binsRanking of bins

Resource densityTransmissionLogisticsEnvironmental

Identify parameters

Ranking of zones

Scoring of zones

RE Zone development

Methodology for RE Zone Development

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Parameters Used to Assess RE Zones

Uzbekistan

Case Studies

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GIS-Based Selection of High Resource Areas

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GIS-Based Selection of High Resource Areas HIGH WIND AREAS HIGH SOLAR AREAS

• Layers from SRTM data are used for elevation and slope calculations• Substation locations are used compute closest distance to areas• Layers from WDPA database is used exclude environmentally sensitive areas

SRTM: Shuttle radar topography mission, WDPA: World database of protected areas 33

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Methodology for Ranking RE Zones

Example of parameters and parameter bins

Example of ranking of RE zones

Wind Zone Parameters Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 Rank 5Power density (W/m2) >=700 >=650 >=600 >=550 <550Constructability/ Slope (in %) <=0.05 <=0.1 <=0.2 <=0.30 >0.3D_T (Km) <=100 <=200 <=300 <=400 >401Environment Clear/Not Clear

RE ZONE RANKING. TOTAL RANKING OF “NC” SIGNIFIES THE ZONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AREA

ZONES RESOURCE DENSITY CONSTRUCTABILITY DISTANCE, D_T ENVIRONMENT

RE Zone 1 1 4 1 CRE Zone 2 5 2 2 C…

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Methodology for Scoring RE Zones

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RE ZONE RANKING. TOTAL RANKING OF “NC” SIGNIFIES THE ZONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AREA

ZONESRESOURC

E DENSITY

CONSTRUCTABILITY

DISTANCE, D_T

ENVIRONMENT

RE Zone 1 1 4 1 CRE Zone 2 5 2 2 C…

PARAMETERS WEIGHT (WIND) WEIGHT (SOLAR)

RESOURCE DENSITY/PVOUT 0.825 0.783CONSTRUCTABILITY 0.05 0.05D_T 0.125 0.167

WIND ZONE RANKING. TOTAL RANKING OF “NC” SIGNIFIES THE ZONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AREA

ZONES RESOURCE DENSITY

CONSTRUCTABILITY DT

ENVIRONMENT

TOTAL RANK

RE Zone 1 1 1 4 C 1.38RE Zone 2 2 1 1 C 1.83RE Zone 3 2 1 2 NC NC

Additional Considerations

• Importance of geographical diversification

• Hybrid zones: Areas that have both significant wind and significant solar resources

• Accounting for transmission line voltage or substation available capacity

• Social impact: Indigenous populations (IP) and involuntary resettlement (IR)

• Land ownership: Government, private, or community

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• Preliminary RE zones form the basis for:

– Resource measurement campaign to verify the resource maps

– Power systems study—Check line congestion, bus voltages, static and dynamic stability

– Logistics study—Estimate cost of installation

– Environmental impact assessment—Dig deeper into impact on wildlife, vegetation, neighboring residents

– Social and cultural impact study—Dig deeper into impact on cultural sites, IP, IR

– Power system upgrades

– Land acquisition

– Licenses, permits, approvals

Next Steps in RE Zone Development

Auction Ready RE Zones

Logistics, EIA

Power system

Res. Measure

ment

Preliminary RE Zones

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Thank you! Questions?

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