scatter workshop, milan, 24 october 2003 testing selected solutions to control urban sprawl the...

SCATTER workshop, Milan, 24 October 2003

Testing selected solutionsto control urban sprawl

The Brussels case city

2

SCATTER workshop, 24 October 2003

The Brussels case study

Brussels metropolitan area : About 2.7 millions inhabitants About 1.2 millions jobs

Brussels-Capital Region : About 1 million inhabitants Lost 120 000 inhabitants in 30 years About 650 000 jobs

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Brussels Metropolitan area : 2.7 millions inhabitants – 1.2 million jobs

Brussels-Capital Region : 1 million inhabitants – 650 000 jobs

4


The RER project High quality, rapid and frequent train services within a

radius of 30 km around the centre of Brussels

Also serving the Brussels-Capital Region

Investment cost : about 900 millions €

Risk : re-launch of urban sprawl

Short run impact on mobility : strong modal shift towards PT,shorter road travel

times; strong reduction of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions

Long run impact on spatial structure : risk of re-launch of urban sprawl; increased

land consumption; longer trips; rising of the fuel consumption; road congestion

springing up again within the next 20 years

Necessity to implement accompanying measures

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Short run impact on mobility : strong modal shift towards PTLong run impact on spatial structure : risk of re-launch of urban sprawl

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Objectives of the accompanying measures

Reinforce the modal shift from private car towards public transport

Counterbalance the long run negative effect of the RER which incites households to out-migrate towards the periphery

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Where households andcompanies do locate,according to :– accessibilities– real estate market prices– regulations– land taxes

Which mode, which pathdo the users use, accordingto :– transport networks– and their quality of service

Travel times and costsbetween locations

LU model TR model

Transport demand : persons and goodsflows from one point to another

Integrated land use/transport modelling

8


Simulated accompanying measures to the RER (1/5)

Increase of car use cost : Increase of the cost per km (+ 50 %) Increase applied only to drivers using a company car (+100 %) Cordon pricing (7.5 €/day)

Parking restriction : Restriction of parking capacity alone Capacity restriction + pricing Test of spatially different implementations of the policy

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HOV dedicated lanes on 5 radial motorways

Regional express buses on radial highways (19 lines) – dedicated lanes

In both cases : together with reduction of capacity for (single occupancy) private cars

Increase of the commercial speed of public transport In the Brussels-capital Region In periphery (local buses driving users to the RER stations)

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Implementation of park & ride facilities

Improving intermodality at railway stations

(decrease of access time)

Alternative operating scheme for the RER

Changes in the fares of public transport (-20 %, +20 %)

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Improvement of quality of life in residential neighbourhoods in the inner city within the Brussels-Capital Region (5 communes)

Corollary of the previous policy : implementation of a hierarchy in the road network of the Brussels-Capital Region reduction of network capacity (by 15 %)

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Territorial fiscal measures applied to households/residential developments :

Fiscal incentive (annual tax reduction) in urban areas + annual tax in suburban/rural areas

Territorial fiscal measures and regulatory measures applied to companies :

Inspired from the ABC theory Applied to the sector “services to business”

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Two stages of simulation and evaluation

First stage : Simulation of individual measures

Second stage : Combination of measures :

Combination of priority measures selected by the Administration = new reference scenario

Combination of other measures tested on the new reference

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Synthesis of results – Individual measures (1/3)

Most effective policies – reduction of urban sprawl : Road pricing Fiscal measures related to land use Regulatory land use measure

Indirect effects of land use policies : Household-targeted policies : indirect effects on employment Employment-targeted policies : indirect effects on population

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Scenarios :2021 RER alone PT quality of service and intermodality Specialisation of the roadParking restriction PT fare networkHOV lanes, regional express buses Car use cost Land use(RER bus)

* The effect of the RER is calculated by comparison with the 2021 reference scenario without RER.

The effect of the other scenarios is calculated by comparison with the scenario 2021 with RER.

Fig. 8 : Effect of the measures on the number of induced householdsin the Brussels-Capital Region

630 577 754

-4 289

-9 137

-15 441

2 235

-633

20 687

7 379

-6 963

-10 098

-500

2 876 1 056

5 918

550

-2 497

685 1 605

13 634

-120 3 944

-5 296

3 306

-270

-17 725

7 495

-4 355

4 101

53 378

55 455

73

-30 000

-20 000

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000R

ER

alo

ne

*

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

5.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

7.1

7.2

8.1

8.2

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

10

.1

10

.2

10

.3

11.1

12

.1

13

.1

13

.2

14

.1.1

14

.1.2

14

.2

Scenario

Var

iati

on

in

th

e n

um

ber

of

ind

uce

d

ho

use

ho

lds

in B

CR

Effect on the number of households in the Brussels-Capital Region

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* The effect of the RER is calculated by comparison with the 2021 reference scenario without RER. The effect of the other scenarios is calculated by comparison with the scenario 2021 with RER.

Fig. 9: Effect of the measures on the number of induced households in urban zones

785 1 0082 044

3872 135

66

14 991

-13 773-13 342

-4 555-676

31 356

27 299

-1 648-3 556

-1 440

5 425

-542

3 557

-956 -2 236-712

-4 143 -3 452

316

3 383

-4 459

1 318

-422

-12 384

-753-3 685

1 6377 239

4 676

5 384

-980

-20 000

-15 000

-10 000

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000R

ER

fe

rré

*

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

5.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

7.1

7.2

8.1

8.2

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

9.7

9.1

f

9.2

f

9.3

f

10

.1

10

.2

10

.3

11.1

12

.1

13

.1

13

.2

14

.1.1

14

.1.2

14

.2

Scenario

Va

ria

tio

n o

f th

e n

um

be

r o

f in

du

ce

d

ho

us

eh

old

s in

urb

an

zo

ne

s

Effect on the number of households in the urban areas

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19


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Fig. 10 : Effect of the measures on the number of induced jobsin the Brussels-Capital Region

1 345 634

-19 649

13 673

-625

1 348

80 945

12 99514 689

189

-1 980-4 088

3 620

-485

3 369

845

-121

37765

-259-249-506

-7 032

105

13 282

5 342

-185

5 6487 824

901 -87

-518 -1 281

-35 000

-15 000

5 000

25 000

45 000

65 000

85 000

RE

R a

lon

e*

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

5.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

7.1

7.2

8.1

8.2

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

10

.1

10

.2

10

.3

11.1

12

.1

13

.1

13

.2

14

.1.1

14

.1.2

14

.2

Scenario

Va

ria

tio

n o

f th

e n

um

be

r o

f in

du

ce

d jo

bs

in B

CR

Effect on the number of jobs in the Brussels-Capital Region

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* The effect of the RER is calculated by comparison with the 2021 reference scenario without RER. The effect of the other scenarios is calculated by comparison with the scenario 2021 with RER.

Fig. 11: Effect of the measures on the number of induced jobs in the urban zones

370 128 583 84

30 252

-3 312 -682

-74-1 706-701

-326 -818

6 579

-8 162

5 819

374189 190

4 154

-423

2 181 1 814

-172

-2 711

9731 7691 034

-164

544

-914

8781 598 3911 875

392

6 0426 948

-15 000

-10 000

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

RE

R f

erré

*

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

5.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

7.1

7.2

8.1

8.2

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

9.7

9.1f

9.2f

9.3f

10.1

10.2

10.3

11.1

12.1

13.1

13.2

14.1

.1

14.1

.2

14.2

Scenario

Va

ria

tio

n o

f th

e n

um

be

r o

f in

du

ce

d jo

bs

in

the

urb

an

zo

ne

s

Effect on the number of jobs in the urban areas

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All policies decreasing the generalised transport cost incite to urban sprawl :

Improvement of PT commercial speed Reduction of PT fare Decrease of access time to rail stations

Decrease of the generalised transport cost limited to the central area makes it more attractive :

See the results of the policy improving the PT commercial speed within the Brussels-Capital Region

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Most effective policies – environmental impacts : Road pricing Parking pricing + parking capacity restriction Express buses

Road pricing : Increase of cost per km / cordon pricing

Parking policy : Local negative effect on employment Hence : spatial competition to be carefully considered when

implementing such a policy

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Fig. 15 : Effect of the measures on the number of vehicle-km travelled by carin the study area

(morning peak period (7h-9h), all trip purposes, including commuters from outside and out-going)

-131 394

-16 776

-99 931

72 275

-248 197 -86621

-721 042

-289 970

-2 751-196 047

-713 349

-532 144

-191 932

-101 135

-183 884-133 338

136 406

92 504

-374 928

-179 648

-604 666

-446 189

-309 841

-151 602

-1 243 136

-774 989

-154 972 -142 311

-1 239 233

-1 207 542

-463 297

-1 507

-17 675

-1 400 000

-1 200 000

-1 000 000

-800 000

-600 000

-400 000

-200 000

0

200 000

400 000

RE

R a

lon

e*

2.1

2.2

2.3

3.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

5.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

7.1

7.2

8.1

8.2

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

10

.1

10

.2

10

.3

11.1

12

.1

13

.1

13

.2

14

.1.1

14

.1.2

14

.2

Scenario

Var

iati

on

of

the

nu

mb

er o

f v

ehic

le-

km b

y ca

r

Effect on the vehicle-km by car

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Criteria for the design of packages

Criteria chosen in order to express the objectives :

Minimise the car mileage (proxy for the fuel consumption)

Maximise the urban concentration i.e. the part of households and employment located in urban areas, including the Brussels-

Capital Region and the peripheral urban centres

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Selected policy package

Components of the selected package :

Increase of car cost per km (+ 50 %) congestion pricing : increase of car use cost during the peak hours in

the RER area

Decrease of PT fare for trips to work place (- 20 %) Fiscal measure on residential developments

impact fee on new residential site developments fiscal reduction in urban areas

Fiscal measure on services to business annual impact fee per employee when located in areas poorly served

by public transport

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Types of scenarios:2015 RER network Decrease of PT fare Fiscal measure on housholdsPriority measures Increase of car use cost Fiscal measure on services to business(new 2015 reference) Combination of measures

(1) The effect of the RER network is calculated in comparison with the 2015 reference scenario

(2) The effect of the priority measures is calculated in comparison with the 2015 RER scenario

(3) The effect of the priority measures is calculated in comparison with the 2015 reference scenario

The effects of the other meaures are calculated in comparison with the priority measures

Effects of the measures on the number of induced households in the urban zones of the study area

7 925

4 917

-2 187

-12 384

4 844

12 575

-3 620

-14 571

8 0766 778

-20 000

-15 000

-10 000

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

RE

R n

etw

ork

(1

)

prio

rity

me

asu

res

(2)

resu

lt o

f th

ep

riorit

y m

ea

sure

s(3

) 9.4

bis

10

.2 b

is

13

.2 b

is

14

.2 b

is

Co

mb

ina

tion

1:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

2:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

4.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

3:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2 +

14

.2

Scenario

Ch

ang

e o

f th

e n

um

ber

of

ind

uce

d

ho

use

ho

lds

Effect on the number of households in the urban areas

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Effects of the measures on the number of induced jobs in the urban zones of the study area

11 518

6 193

3 2934 154

1 021

12 311

179

7 447

6 5505 490

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

RE

R n

etw

ork

(1

)

prio

rity

me

asu

res

(2)

resu

lt o

f th

e p

riorit

ym

ea

sure

s (3

)

9.4

bis

10

.2 b

is

13

.2 b

is

14

.2 b

is

Co

mb

ina

tion

1:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

3.2

.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

2:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

4.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

3:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

3.2

.2+

14

.2

Scenario

Ch

ang

e o

f th

e n

um

ber

of

ind

uce

d j

ob

s

Effect on the number of jobs in the urban areas

29







(*): Vehicle-kilometers made by private car in the study area, including the entering and outgoing traffic, at the morning peak hour (7 a.m.-9 a.m.), for all travel purposes

Effect of the measures on the number of vehicle - kilometers made by private car in the study area (*)

-1 245 923

-1 361 451

55 371

-840 032-774 989

-4 187

-1 365 907

-163 660

-1 615 021

-1 416 744

-1 800 000

-1 600 000

-1 400 000

-1 200 000

-1 000 000

-800 000

-600 000

-400 000

-200 000

0

200 000

RE

R n

etw

ork

(1

)

prio

rity

me

asu

res

(2)

resu

lt o

f th

ep

riorit

y m

ea

sure

s(3

) 9.4

bis

10

.2 b

is

13

.2 b

is

14

.2 b

is

Co

mb

ina

tion

1:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

2:

10

.2 +

9.4

+ 1

4.2

Co

mb

ina

tion

3:

10

.2 +

9.4

+1

3.2

.2 +

14

.2

Scénario testé

Var

iati

on

en

véh

icu

les-

km

Effect on the vehicle-km by car

scatter workshop, milan, 24 october 2003 testing selected solutions to control urban sprawl the...

Documents

scatter workshop

jobs slide

policy slide

periphery slide

business slide

combination of measures

regulatory measures

brussels case city slide