scb_021984
TRANSCRIPT
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Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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1984 / VOLUME 4 NUMBER
^ Tables 3
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the BUSINESS SITUATION
IvEVISED (45-day) estimates showthat real GNP increased 5 percent atan annual rate in the fourth quarterof 1983.l Preliminary (15-day) esti-mates had shown a 4V2-percent in-crease. Inflation, as measured by theincrease in the GNP fixed-weightedprice index, was revised down from4 x/2 percent to 4 percent.
The $1V2 billion upward revision inreal GNP resulted from large, but off-setting, revisions in some of the majorcomponents (table 1). Net exportswere revised up $4 billion, mainly dueto higher estimates of merchandiseexports and lower estimates of mer-chandise imports. The upward revi-sion of $2J/2 billion in nonresidentialfixed investment was in producers'durable equipmentabout half inmotor vehicles. Residential invest-ment was revised up $1 billion. Thelargest downward revision$31/2 bil-lionwas in change in business in-ventories. Manufacturing inventories,both durable and nondurable, ac-counted for about three-fifths of therevision; wholesale inventories, pri-marily nondurable, accounted for theremainder. Personal consumption ex-penditures were revised down $2 bil-lion. In particular, estimates forautos, food, and electricity and natu-ral gas were lower. Revisions in gov-ernment purchases were quite small.
For the most part, the revisions infourth-quarter GNP do not alter thepicture of economic activity describedin the January "Business Situation."The 5-percent increase in real GNP in
the fourth quarter was smaller thanthe very strong increases in the twopreceding quarters. The slowdownwas in inventory investment. In thethird quarter, a swing in inventoriesfrom liquidation in the second quarterto accumulation had boosted the
change in GNP. In the fourth quarter,inventories accumulated at the samerate as in the third, and, thus, did notaffect the change in GNP. The moder-ate increase in inventories in thefourth quarter, coupled with a strongincrease in final sales, led to a contin-
Table 1.Revisions in Selected Component Series of the NIPA's, Fourth Quarter of 1983
GNP
Personal consumption expendituresNonresidential fixed investmentResidential investmentChange in business inventoriesNet exportsGovernment purchases
National income
Compensation of employeesCorporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adj ustmentsOther
Personal income
GNP
Personal consumption expendituresNonresidential fixed investmentResidential investment.Change in business inventoriesNet exportsGovernment purchases
GNP implicit price deflatorGNP fixed-weighted price indexGNP chain price index
Seasonally adjusted at annualrates
15-dayestimate
45-dayestimate Revision
Billions of current dollars
3,432.0
2,233.1371.2140.8
17.7-32.6701.7
2,056.0
446.3
2,834.2
3,437.3
2,227.0376.2141.510.5
-18.7700.9
2,056.3
448.6
2,835.3
5.3
-6.15.0
.7-7.213.9-.8
.3
1.7
1.1
Billions of constant (1972)dollars
1,570.5
1,032.2178.956.17.52.5
293.2
1,571.9
1,030.2181.357.13.96.3
293.2
1.4
-2.02.41.0
-3.63.80
Index numbers, 1972-100
218.53228.0
218.67227.7
.14-.3
Percent changefrom preceding
quarter at annualrates
15-dayestimate
8.6
9.925.1
-1.8
2.0
9.1
19.6
10.9
4.5
6.522.3
-5.2
-2.7"
3.94.54.6
45-dayestimate
9.2
8.731.9
.2
1.5
9.2
21.4
11.1
4.9
5.729.0
1.8
-2.1
4.24.14.4
1. Quarterly estimates in the national income andproduct accounts are expressed at seasonally adjustedannual rates. Quarterly percent changes in them areexpressed at annual rates.
1. Not at annual rates.NOTE.For the fourth quarter of 1983, the following revised or additional major source data became available: For personal
consumption expenditures, revised retail sales for November and December; for nonresidential fixed investment, manufacturers'shipments of equipment for November (revised) and December, construction put in place for November (revised) and December,and a partial tabulation of business expenditures for plant and equipment for the quarter; for residential investment, constructionput in place for November (revised) and December; for change in business inventories, book values for manufacturing and tradefor November (revised) and December; for net exports of goods and services, merchandise trade for November (revised) andDecember; for government purchases of goods and services, Federal unified budget outlays for December, and State and localconstruction put in place for November (revised) and December; for wages and salaries, revised employment, average hourlyearnings, and average weekly hours for November and December; for GNP prices, the Consumer Price Index and the ProducerPrice Index for December, unit value indexes and export and import price indexes for December, and residential housing pricesfor the quarter.
1
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS February 1984
ued decline in the aggregate inven-tory-sales ratios.
Final sales were up 5 percent inboth the third and fourth quarters.Among the components of final sales,personal consumption expendituresincreased sharply in the fourth quar-ter, following a moderate increase inthe third. About one-half of thefourth-quarter increase was accounted
for by spending on durables, particu-larly on new cars and trucks and onfurniture and equipment. A speedupin nonresidential fixed investment inthe fourth quarter was in its equip-ment component. Residential invest-ment changed little in the fourthquarter, following several quarters ofstrong increases. Both single-familyand multifamily construction contrib-
uted to the slowdown. Net exportsregistered a much sharper declinethan in the third quarter. Importswere up more than in the third quar-ter, and exports were up less. Govern-ment purchases declined after an in-crease; a decrease in Federal nonde-fense purchases was due to the oper-ations of the Commodity Credit Cor-poration.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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February 1984 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Selected National Income and Product Accounts Tables
New estimates in this issue: Fourth Quarter and annual 1983, revised.The abbreviations used in the tables are: CCAdj
IVACapital consumption adjustmentInventory valuation adjustment
NIPA's National income and product accountsp Preliminaryr Revised
The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: Statistical Tables (StockNo. 003-010-00101-1, price $10.00). Estimates for 1977-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982 SURVEY; estimates for 1980-82and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1983 SURVEY. Summary NIPA Series, 1950-82, are in the October 1983 SURVEY. These publica-tions are available from the Superintendent of Documents and Commerce Department District Offices; see addresses inside front cover.
Table 1.1-1.2.Gross National Product in Current and Constant Dollars
Gross national productPersonal consumption expenditures
Durable goodsNondurable goods.. .. ..Services
Gross private domestic investmentFixed investment
Nonresidential ... .StructuresProducers' durable equipment
ResidentialNonfarm structures .Farm structuresProducers' durable equipment
Change in business inventoriesNonfarmFarm
Net exports of goods and servicesExportsImports
Government purchases of goods and servicesFederal
National defenseNondefense
State and local
Billions of dollars
1982
3,073.0
1,991.9244.5761.0986.4414.5439.1348.3141.9206.4
90.886.01.53.2
245-23.1-1.4
17.4
347.6330.2649.2258.7179.479.3
390.5
1983 r
3,310.8
2,157.0279.1803.8
1,074.2
470.9479.6348.9131.5217.4130.7125.6
1.53.6
-8.7-3.4-5.4-7.1
336.8344.0
690.0275.2200.2
75.0414.8
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
3,090.72,008.8
243.4766.6998.9425.3430.2342.3140.0202.2
87.983.41.33.349
-2.32 6
.9346.0345.0655.7261.7183.678.1
394.0
IV
3,109.6
2,046.9252.1773.0
1,021.8
377.4433.8337.0138.6198.496.891.22.33.3
564-53.7-2.7
5.6321.6316.1679.7279.2190.888.5
400.5
1983I
3,171.52,073.0
258.5777.1
1,037.4
404.1
443.5332.1132.9199.3111.3106.7
1.33.4394
-39.0-.4
17.0326.9309.9677.4273.5194.479.1
404.0
II
3,272.0
2,147.0277.7799.6
1,069.7450.1464.6336.3127.4208.8128.4123.3
1.53.5
14 5-10.3
4 2
-8.5327.1335.6683.4273.7199.474.3
409.7
III
3,362.22,181.1
282.8814.8
1,083.5501.1492.5351.0130.9220.2141.5136.3
1.63.68.5
18.499
183341.1359.4698.3278.1201.2
76.9420.2
IV r
3,437.3
2,227.0297.4823.6
1,106.0528.2517.7376.2134.8241.4141.5136.3
1.63.7
10.517.4
-6.9-18.7352.3371.0
700.9275.6206.0
69.6425.3
Billions of 1972 dollars
1982
1,485.4970.2139.8364.2466.2194.5203.9166.1
53.4112.737.835.2
.61.9
-9.486-.8
28.9147.3118.4
291.8116.678.837.8
175.2
1983 r
1,535.11,010.9
156.2375.9478.7
218.3221.6168.649.8
118.853.050.3
.62.1
-3.36
-2.7
12.6139.3126.7293.3118.084.233.8
175.3
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
1,485.7971.0138.2364.7468.2198.4199.8163.3
53.0110.336.534.1
.51.913.1
14
24.0146.4122.4
292.2116.980.436.5
175.3
IV
1,480.7
979.6143.2366.0470.4
178.4201.1160.5
52.2108.340.637.8
.91.9
-22.7-21.1-1.623.0
136.5113.5299.7124.481.443.0
175.2
1983
I
1,490.1986.7145.8368.9472.0
190.0205.4159.9
50.3109.645.543.0
.52.0
-15.415.1-.3
20.5137.3116.8292.9118.482.735.7
174.5
II
1,525.11,010.6
156.5374.7479.4
210.0215.6163.0
48.3114.7
52.650.0
.62.15.4
-3.3-2.1
12.3136.2123.9292.1117.6
84.233.4
174.5
III
1,553.41,016.0
157.9378.1480.1230.7227.0170.149.6
120.556.854.1
.62.13.88.85.0
11.4140.7129.2295.2118.984.234.7
176.3
IV '
1,571.91,030.2
164.7381.9483.6242.3238.4181.3
50.9130.4
57.154.3
.62.13.97.4
-3.56.3
143.2136.9293.2117.185.731.3
176.1
Table 1.3-1.4.Gross National Product by Major Type of Product in Current and Constant Dollars
Gross national productFinal salesChange in business inventories
GoodsFinal salesChange in business inventories
Durable goodsFinal salesChange in business inventories
Nondurable goodsFinal salesChange in business inventories
ServicesStructuresAddenda:
Gross domestic purchases *Final sales to domestic purchasers *
3 073 030975
2451208913054' 24550085163155
78017891
911 511 1
281.0
3055630801
3 31083,319 5
87
1364113728
8754735524
5181678204
361 637 1
309.6
3317933266
3 0907
3095649
1 286 61 291 5
4 951845120
647683779 5113
1 527 22769
3089830947
3 109 6
31659564
1 264 81 321 2
56 4474 05190450
7908802 2114
1 56052843
3104031604
3 171 532109
3941 292 21 331 6
39 448275209382
80958106
12
1 58842909
315463 1939
3272 0
32866145
1 346 81 361 3
14 553685457
8981008157
571 623 4
301 9
3280532950
3 362 233537
851 38891 3804
855689555913 1
8200824 5
451 651 0
3223
3 380 533719
3 437 334269
10 51 42831 417 9
10560095873
13 6827 4830 6
311 685 8
323 2
3456 13 4456
1 485 414948
94
661 6671 0
94269 62761
653920394 9
29712 2111 6
1 456 51 4659
1 535 115384
33
687 46907
3329072926
1 8396 6398 1
1 5725 1122 7
1 522 51 5258
1 485714870
13
661 66630
1 327492716
3 23867391 3
4 6713 91102
1 461 71 4630
1 480715034
227
652 1674 8227
25642753189
39563994
38715 0113 6
1 457 71 4804
1 490 115055
15465696723154
261 32770157
395 639523
717 81154
1 469 61 4850
1 525 115305
54681 8687 2
54287 4291 137394 5396 1
17
723 01203
1 51281 5183
1 553 41 549.7
38
69906953
3 82999294 1
58399 2401 2
20727 0127 3
1 542 01 538 2
1 571 91,568.1
39711 87079
39314 43081
64397 33998
25732 5127 7
1 56571 561 8
1. Gross domestic purchases equals GNP less exports plus imports; final sales to domestic purchasers equals final sales less exports plus imports.
Table 1.5-1.6.Gross National Product by Sector in Current and Constant Dollars
Gross national product
Gross domestic productBusiness
NonfarmNonfarm less housingHousing
FarmStatistical discrepancy
Households and institutionsPrivate householdsNonprofit institutions
GovernmentFederalState and local
Rest of the worldAddendum:
Gross domestic business product less housing
3073 0
30257259462520022526
26747415
107076
9943241101 12230
47.3
2,318.4
3 3108
3264128027273172,438 8
29297101
114982
1067346610612404
46.7
3 09073 044 22 610 12536622659
2707709
2 51085
77100 83257100 72250466
3 1096
3063 52619 12539122610
278 1758
4 21108
7810293337104 22295460
3 171 53 127 22 67552*601823179
28407491 2
112280
104 2339510562338443
3 272 0
3227 9276982 700 52 411 0
28967273 5
114 18 1
106 0344 11060238 144 1
3 362 23 314 12*849*82779 02483 3
29576832 5
115 68 2
107 4348 8106 2242648 1
3 437 3
3 387 22 915 62 84522 543 1
302 167 92 5
117 884
1094353 9106 6247 250 1
1 485 41 462 31 259 61 22041 078 3
142 13902467
Q O43 4
156 150 5
105623 i
1 1162
1 coc i
1 513 41 309 91 273 21 1256
147 7366
Q
47 53 5
44 1156 150 8
105221 7
1 4R* 7
1 463 12 260 41 223 41 0807
142 73571 2
46 83 343 5
156050 5
105 422 6
1 400 7
1 458 61 255 91 213 21 0689
144 3406
2 046 93 3
43 5155850 7
105 122 1
1 J.QA 1
1 469 21*26611 227 51*081 9
145 639 2g47 13 443 7
155 950 8
105 121 0
1 59^ 1
1 504 41 301 21*265 11 1182
146 937 71 6
47 33 4
43 9156 050 8
105 120 7
1 ^^ A.
1 531 11 327 51 290 91 1426
148 335 5i i
47 63 5
44 1156 0
en Q105 222 3
1 ^71 Q
1 549 01 344 71 309 41 159 6
149 934 1
^ -^48 03 5
44 5156 3
CA 0
105 423 o
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-
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS February 1984
Table 1.13.Gross Domestic Product of Corporate Business in Current Dollars and Gross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Businessin Current and Constant Dollars
Gross domestic prod-uct of corporatebusiness
Capital consumption allow-ances with CCAdj ....
Net domestic productIndirect business tax and
nontax liability plusbusiness transfer pay-ments less subsidies
Domestic incomeCompensation of em-
ployeesWages and salariesSupplements to
wages and salaries ...Corporate profits with
IVA and CCAdjProfits before tax
Profits tax liability ..Profits after tax
DividendsUndistributed
profitsIVACCAdj
Net interestGross domestic
product of finan-cial corporatebusiness
Gross domesticproduct of non-financial corpo-rate business
Capital consumption allow-ances with CCAdj
Billions of dollars
1982
1,897.1
222.0
1,675.1
187.6
1,487.5
1,282.21,065.8
216.4
143.0
152.459.293.254.4
38.884
-1.162.3
120.4
1,776.7
210.0
1983 r
2,061.5
231.6
1,830.0
206.9
1,623.1
1,363.41,126.3
237.2
204.8
183.475.7
107.762.0
45.79 4
30.954.8
142.7
1,918.8
218.2
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
1,909.4
224.5
1,684.9
188.4
1,496.5
1,290.81,072.9
217.9
147.8
156.660.895.855.5
40.3-9.0
.158.0
122.6
1,786.8
212.3
IV
1,903.2
227.7
1,675.4
191.4
1,484.0
1,289.21,070.3
218.9
137.8
143.454.089.456.7
32.610 34.7
57.1
128.2
1,775.0
215.1
1983
I
1,954.2
228.3
1,725.9
195.6
1,530.3
1,313.61,086.9
226.7
161.6
149.561.588.060.6
27.4-1.713.955.1
136.5
1,817.6
215.3
II
2,036.5
229.8
1,806.7
207.3
1,599.4
1,347.61,114.1
233.5
197.7
182.876.0
106.762.9
43.9-10.6
25.654.0
144.1
1,892.4
216.7
III
2,102.5
233.1
1,869.4
211.0
1,658.4
1,379.11,138.5
240.5
225.0
205.784.9
120.762.3
58.4-18.3
37.654.3
144.7
1,957.8
219.6
IV r
235.0
213.8
1,413.41,165.5
247.9
62.2
-7.146.555.9
221.1
Table 1.11. National Income by Type of Income
National income
Compensation of employ-
Wages and salariesGovernment and gov-
ernment enterprises ....Other
Supplements to wages
Employer contribu-tions for social in-surance
Other labor income
Proprietors' income withIVA and CCAdj
Farm ..Proprietors' income
with IVAPPArli
NonfarmProprietors' incomeIVACCAdj
Rental income of personswith CCAdj
Rental income of per-
CCAdjCorporate profits with IVA
and CCAdjCorporate profits with
IVAProfits before tax
Profits tax liability ..Profits after tax
Undistributedprofits
IVACCAdj
Net interest
Addenda:Corporate profits after
tax with IVA andCCAdj
Undistributed profitswith IVA and CCAdj
2,450.4
1,865.71,568.1
306.01,262.1
297.6
140.9156.6
109.021.5
29.9-8.487.484.2-.63.9
49.9
86.3-36.5
164.8
165.9174.259.2
115.168.7
46.4-8.4-1.1
261.1
105.668.7
37.0
2,648.4
1,990.21,664.1
325.71,338.3
326.1
152.7173.4
128.620.9
29.3-8.4107.797.4
911.1
54.8
93.2-38.4
227.3
196.4205.975.7
130.273.3
56.9-9.430.9
247.5
151.673.3
78.3
2,458.9
1,879.51,579.8
307.71,272.1
299.7
141.5158.2
103.615.8
24.28 4
87.884.5
74.1
50.9
87.6-36.7
168.5
168.3177.360.8
116.568.8
47.7-9.0
.1
256.4
107.668.8
38.9
2,474.0
1,889.01,586.0
314.51,271.5
302.9
142.5160.4
116.226.0
34.68 6
90.286.0-.84.9
52.3
87.4-35.2
161.9
157.2167.554.0
113.570.4
43.110 34.7
254.7
107.970.4
37.5
2,528.5
1,923.71,610.6
319.21,291.5
313.1
148.8164.3
120.622.2
30.68 4
98.491.0-.27.6
54.1
91.6-37.5
181.8
168.0169.761.5
108.271.4
36.71 7
13.9
248.3
120.371:4
48.9
2,612.8
1,968.71,647.1
323.31,323.8
321.6
151.5170.1
127.221.0
29.4-8.4106.296.8
-1.110.5
54.8
92.237.4
218.2
192.7203.376.0
127.272.0
55.210 625.6
243.8
142.272.0
70.1
2,686.9
2,011.81,681.5
328.41,353.1
330.3
153.9176.4
126.715.5
23.984
111.2100.6
1 512.2
53.9
94.040.0
248.4
210.8229.184.9
144.173.7
70.4-18.3
37.6
246.1
163.473.7
89.7
2,056.31,717.0
332.11,384.9
339.3
156.6182.7
139.925.1
33.4-8.3114.8101.3-.714.2
56.2
94.8-38.6
75.9
7 146.5
251.9
75.9
Net domestic product ....Indirect business tax and
nontax liability plusbusiness transfer pay-ments less subsidies
Domestic incomeCompensation of em-
ployeesWages and salariesSupplements to
wages and salaries...Corporate profits with
IVA and CCAdj ...Profits before tax
Profits tax liability ..Profits after tax
DividendsUndistributed
profitsIVACCAdj
Net interest
Gross domestic prod-uct of nonfmancialcorporate business-
Capital consumption allow-ances with CCAdj
Net domestic productIndirect business tax and
nontax liability plusbusiness transfer pay-ments less subsidies
Domestic income
Billions of dollars
1982
1,566.8
179.01,387.8
1,198.6997.3
201.3
124.0
131.541.290.357.2
33.1-8.4
.865.2
1983 r
1,700.6
197.21,503.4
1,269.01,048.9
220.1
175.0
151.955.196.864.7
32.194
32.559.4
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
1,574.5
179.61,394.9
1,205.61,003.1
202.6
127.5
134.442.092.458.5
33.99 o2.1
61.8
IV
1,559.8
182.41,377.4
1,201.2998.2
203.0
114.3
117.933.684.459.2
25.1-10.3
6.761.9
1983
I
1,602.3
186.41,415.9
1,222.41,012.0
210.4
133.9
119.741.877.963.3
14.51 7
15.959.7
II
1,675.7
197.61,478.1
1,253.91,037.2
216.7
165.7
149.055.094.065.6
28.410 627.358.6
III
1,738.2
201.11,537.1
1,283.71,060.4
223.3
194.5
173.863.9
109.865.1
44.8-18.3
39.058.9
IV r
203.7
1,316.11,085.9
230.2
64.9
7 i47.860.6
Billions of 1972 dollars
857.7
96.8
760.9
94.2666.6
893.8
100.4
793.4
98.5695.0
859.5
97.2
762.3
94.0668.3
846.4
98.2
748.2
93.9654.3
856.0
98.9
757.2
96.4660.8
885.8
99.8
786.0
97.5688.4
909.4
101.1
808.3
99.1709.2
101.9
100.9
Table 1.7.- Relation of Gross National Product, Net National Product,National Income, and Personal Income
Gross national product
Less:Capital consumption al-
lowances with CCAdj...Capital consumption al-
lowancesLess- CCAdj
Equals: Net national prod-uct
Less:Indirect business tax and
nontax liabilityBusiness transfer pay-
mentsStatistical discrepancy
Plus: Subsidies less currentsurplus of governmententerprises
Equals: National income
Less:Corporate profits with
IVA and CCAdjNet interestContributions for social
insuranceWage accruals less dis-
bursementsPlus:
Government transfer pay-ments to persons... .
Personal interest income-Personal dividend income.Business transfer pay-
ments
Equals: Personal income
Billions of dollars
1982
3,073.0
359.2
312.6466
2,713.8
258.3
14.1.5
9.5
2,450.4
164.8261.1
253.0
0
260.4366.266.4
14.1
2,578.6
1983 r
3,310.8
377.1
367.794
2,933.7
285.9
15.5.1
16.2
2,648.4
227.3247.5
272.34
388.1366.370.5
15.5
2,742.1
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
3,090.7
363.0
317.5455
2,727.7
259.9
14.32.5
8.0
2,458.9
168.5256.4
254.3
0
366.1364.8
66.4
14.3
2,591.3
IV
3,109.6
368.3
329.5-38.8
2,741.3
264.8
14.74.2
16.6
2,474.0
161.9254.7
255.4
0
384.3363.167.9
14.7
2,632.0
1983
I
3,171.5
370.8
341.8-29.1
2,800.7
270.6
15.0-1.2
12.3
2,528.5
181.8248.3
265.4
0
383.6357.268.8
15.0
2,657.7
II
3,272.0
373.3
359.0-14.3
2,898.7
285.8
15.3-3.5
11.8
2,612.8
218.2243.8
270.1
-1.3
390.0357.169.3
15.3
2,713.6
III
3,362.2
381.7
378.53.2
2,980.5
291.1
15.72.5
15.8
2,686.9
248.4246.1
274.4
-.4
386.8369.970.9
15.7
2,761.9
IV r
3,437.3
382.5391.7
9.2
3,054.8
295.8
16.1
24.8
""251.9
279.1
0
391.9381.0
72.9
16.1
2,835.3
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
February 1984 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Table 2.1.Personal Income and Its Disposition Table 2.2-2.3.Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of
Personal income
Wage and salary disburse-mentsCommodity-producing
ManufacturingDistributive industries ..Service industriesGovernment and govern-
ment enterprises
Other labor income
Proprietors' income with IVAand CCAdj
FarmNonfarm
Rental income of personswith CCAdj
Personal dividend income
Personal interest income
Old-age, survivors, disabil-ity, and health insurancebenefits
Government unemploymentinsurance benefits
Veterans benefitsGovernment employees re-
tirement benefitsOther transfer paymentsAid to families with de-
pendent childrenOther
Less: Personal contribu-tions for social insurance .
Less: Personal tax andnontax payments
Equals: Disposable personalincome
Less: Personal outlaysPersonal consumption ex-
pendituresInterest paid by consumers
to businessPersonal transfer payments
to foreigners (net)Equals: Personal saving
Addenda:Disposable personal
income:Total, billions of 1972 dol-
larsPer capita:
Current dollars1972 dollars
Population (millions)Personal saving as percent-
age of disposable person-al income
rroauct in current ana constant uouarsBillions of dollars
1982
2,578.6
1,568.1
509.2383.8378.8374.1
306.0
156.6
109.021.587.4
49.9
66.4
366.2
374.5
204.5
24.816.4
54.274.6
13.461.2
112.0
402.1
2,176.5
2,051.1
1,991.9
58.1
1.1
125.4
1,060.2
9,3774,567232.1
5.8
1983 r
2,742.1
1,664.5
529.7402.8397.2411.5
326.2
173.4
128.620.9
107.7
54.8
70.5
366.3
403.6
222.8
25.616.7
58.680.0
14.365.7
119.5
406.5
2,335.6
2,220.9
2,157.0
62.7
1.1
114.7
1,094.3
9,9694,671234.3
4.9
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
2,591.3
1,579.8
508.9384.8381.9381.2
307.7
158.2
103.615.887.8
50.9
66.4
364.8
380.4
209.3
24.916.3
55.174.9
13.361.6
112.7
399.8
2,191.5
2,068.4
2,008.8
58.5
1.1
123.0
1,059.3
9,4304,558232.4
5.6
IV
2,632.0
1,586.0
499.5377.4383.5388.5
314.5
160.4
116.226.090.2
52.3
67.9
363.1
399.0
216.5
32.216.6
55.877.9
13.564.3
112.9
404.1
2,227.8
2,107.0
2,046.9
59.1
1.0
120.8
1,066.1
9,5624,576233.0
5.4
1983
I
2,657.7
1,610.7
508.6385.4386.4396.4
319.2
164.3
120.622.298.4
54.1
68.8
357.2
398.5
217.4
29.016.9
56.678.7
14.164.5
116.5
401.8
2,255.9
2,134.2
2,073.0
60.2
1.0
121.7
1,073.8
9,6614,599233.5
5.4
II
2,713.6
1,648.4
522.2397.4394.3407.3
324.6
170.1
127.221.0
106.2
54.8
69.3
357.1
405.3
221.1
30.016.6
58.379.3
14.464.9
118.6
412.6
2,301.0
2,209.5
2,147.0
61.4
1.1
91.5
1,083.0
9,8344,629234.0
4.0
III
2,761.9
1,681.9
537.8409.2398.9416.4
328.8
176.4
126.715.5
111.2
53.9
70.9
369.9
402.5
223.8
22.616.6
59.380.2
14.366.0
120.5
400.1
2,361.7
2,245.9
2,181.1
63.6
1.2
115.8
1,100.1
10,0694,690234.6
4.9
IV T
Personal consump-1J17.0 tion expenditures
5500 Durable goods
409.1 Motor vehicles and parts ...425^9 Furniture and household
equipment..009 -( Other1827 Nondurable goods
Food139.9 Clothing and shoes25 i Gasoline and oil
114^8 Other nondurable goodsFuel oil and coalOther
56.2 Services72.9 .Housing
001 n Household operationElectricity and gas
^Qg i OtherTransportationOther
228.8
20.916.5
Personal consump-60.1 tion expenditures81.8
Durable goods14.467.4 Motor vehicles and parts ...
Furniture and householdequipment
122.5 Other ...
Nondurable goods411.4
FoodClothing and shoes
2 424 0 Gasoline and oilOther nondurable goods
2,294.0 Fuel oil and coalOther
2,227.0Services
65.8Housing
1 2 Household operationElectricity and gas
129 9 OtherTransportationOther
Billions of dollars
1982
1,991.9
244.5
109.9
93.541.1
761.0
396.9119.091.5
153.520.0
133.5
986.4
334.1144.376.368.068.4
439.6
1983 r
2,157.0
279.1
133.2
102.043.9
803.8
421.8125.590.8
165.621.1
144.5
1,074.2
363.6154.181.472.772.5
483.9
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
2,008.8
243.4
109.4
93.540.5
766.6
400.4119.291.3
155.620.9
134.8
998.9
337.8145.276.269.069.8
446.1
IV
2,046.9
252.1
116.1
94.941.0
773.0
404.5119.691.1
157.920.2
137.7
1,021.8
345.2147.176.870.369.2
460.3
1983
I
2,073.0
258.5
118.4
97.342.9
777.1
411.7120.087.3
158.117.7
140.4
1,037.4
352.6145.974.171.870.1
468.8
II
2,147.0
277.7
133.9
100.843.1
799.6
419.6126.490.3
163.321.2
142.1
1,069.7
359.5155.482.872.670.9
483.9
III
2,181.1
282.8
135.6
102.944.3
814.8
426.4125.193.1
170.223.0
147.2
1,083.5
367.2155.883.372.574.0
486.6
IV *
2,227.0
297.4
144.7
107.245.4
823.6
429.8130.692.6
170.722.3
148.4
1,106.0
375.2159.185.373.875.2
496.5
Billions of 1972 dollars
970.2
139.8
57.4
59.722.7
364.2
184.084.425.670.23.5
66.6
466.2
171.363.524.938.631.7
199.6
1,010.9
156.2
67.9
64.623.7
375.9
190.987.326.371.4
4.067.5
478.7
176.463.824.739.131.5
207.1
971.0
138.2
56.4
59.622.3
364.7
184.884.125.370.63.7
66.9
468.2
171.763.524.738.832.0
201.0
979.6
143.2
60.5
60.222.5
366.0
186.484.525.270.03.4
66.6
470.4
172.463.023.939.131.4
203.5
986.7
145.8
60.9
61.723.3
368.9
188.284.726.369.73.3
66.4
472.0
174.061.923.039.031.2
204.8
1,010.6
156.5
69.1
63.923.4
374.7
189.488.426.370.74.1
66.6
479.4
175.564.225.139.131.4
208.2
1,016.0
157.9
69.1
65.223.6
378.1
193.186.126.372.6
4.368.3
480.1
177.164.325.438.931.7
207.0
1,030.2
164.7
72.7
67.624.3
381.9
193.190.026.172.74.1
68.5
483.6
178.864.925.539.331.6
208.3
! 121 3 Table 5.1. Gross Saving and Investment
10,3094,769235.1
5.4
Billions of dollars
1982 1983 rSeasonally adjusted at annual rates
1982
III IV
1983
I II III IV r
Table 7.7.Current-Dollar Cost and Profit Per Unit of Constant-DollarGross Domestic Product of Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current-dollar cost and profit perunit of constant-dollar gross do-mestic product 1
Capital consumption allowances with CCAdj...Net domestic product
Indirect business tax and nontax liabilityplus business transfer payments lesssubsidies
Domestic incomeCompensation of employeesCorporate profits with
IVA and CCAdjProfits tax liabilityProfits after tax with IVA and CCAdj ...
Net interest
Dollars
1982
2.072
.2451.827
.2091.6181.397
.145
.048
.097
.076
1983 r
2.147
.2441.903
.2211.6821.420
.196
.062
.134
.066
Seasonally adjusted1982
III
2.079
.2471.832
.2091.6231.403
.148
.049
.099
.072
IV
2.097
.2541.843
.2151.6271.419
.135
.040
.095
.073
1983
I
2.123
.2521.872
.2181.6541.428
.156
.049
.108
.070
II
2.136
.2451.892
.2231.6691.416
.187
.062
.125
.066
III
2.153
.2411.911
.2211.6901.412
.214
.070
.144
.065
IV r
Gross saving
Gross private savingPersonal savingUndistributed corporate
profits with IVA andCCAdj
Undistributed profitsIVACCAdj
Capital consumption al-lowances with CCAdj:
CorporateNoncorporate
Wage accruals less dis-bursements
Government surplus ordeficit ( ) NIPA's
FederalState and local
Capital grants received bythe United States (net)
Gross investment
Gross private domestic in-vestment
Net foreign investment
Statistical discrepan-
Billions of dollars
1982
405.8
521.6125.4
37.046.4
-8.4-1.1
222.0137.2
0
115 8-147.1
31.3
0
406.2
414.5-8.3
.5
1983 r
438.5
570.2114.7
78.356.9
-9.430.9
231.6145.6
0
-131.7-182.8
51.1
0
438.6
470.9-32.3
.1
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
397.9
524.9123.0
38.947.7
-9.0.1
224.5138.5
0
-127.0158331.3
0
400.5
425.3-24.8
2.5
IV
351.3
526.6120.8
37.543.11034.7
227.7140.5
0
175 3-208.2
32.9
0
355.5
377.4-21.9
4.2
1983
I
398.5
541.5121.7
48.936.7
-1.713.9
228.3142.6
0
-142.9-183.3
40.4
0
397.4
404.1-6.7
-1.2
II
420.6
535.091.5
70.155.2
-10.625.6
229.8143.5
0
-114.4166.151.7
0
417.1
450.1-33.0
3.5
III
455.4
587.5115.8
89.770.418.337.6
233.1148.6
0
131.8-187.3
55.5
0
457.9
501.1-43.2
2.5
IV r
""129.9
7.146.5
235.0147.6
0
0
481.9
528.2-46.3
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS February 1984
Table 3.2.Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures Table 7.1.Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Receipts
Personal tax and nontaxreceipts
Income taxesEstate and gift taxesNontaxes
Corporate profits tax accru-als
Indirect business tax andnontax accruals
Excise taxesCustoms dutiesNontaxes
Contributions for socialinsurance
Expenditures
Purchases of goods andservices
National defenseNondefense
Transfer paymentsTo personsTo foreigners
Grants-in-aid to State andlocal governments
Net interest paidInterest paid
To persons and busi-ness
To foreigners. .Less: Interest received
Subsidies less current sur-plus of governmententerprises
SubsidiesLess: Current surplus of
government enterprises .
Less: Wage accruals lessdisbursements
Surplus or deficit(-), NIPA's
Social insurance fundsOther
Billions of dollars
1982
617.4
304.7296.7
7.6.3
46.5
48.332.48.67.3
217.9
764.4
258.7179.479.3
321.1314.8
6.3
83.984.9
107.7
89.518.222.8
15.814.9
-.8
0
-147.1
-29.0-118.0
1983 r
643.6
295.9289.7
5.9.3
59.3
54.036.59.18.5
234.4
826.4
275.2200.275.0
345.1338.7
6.3
86.596.5
121.1
103.417.724.6
22.619.8
-2.9
-.4
-182.8
-28.8-154.0
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
III
615.2
300.6293.0
7.3.3
47.8
47.931.7
8.47.8
218.9
773.5
261.7183.678.1
325.9320.1
5.8
83.088.6
111.7
92.818.923.1
14.213.5
-.8
0
-158.3
-34.3-124.1
IV
612.6
303.0296.7
6.0.3
42.1
48.332.48.37.6
219.3
820.9
279.2190.888.5
344.8337.2
7.6
85.089.1
112.6
93.818.823.5
22.817.9
-4.9
0
-208.2
-43.9-164.3
1983
I
623.3
297.7291.7
5.7.3
48.6
48.633.37.57.7
228.5
806.6
273.5194.479.1
340.3335.3
5.0
85.888.4
113.0
95.417.624.6
18.616.4
-2.3
0
-183.3
-32.0-151.4
II
652.6
304.2297.8
6.1.3
59.8
56.038.68.98.4
232.6
818.7
273.7199.474.3
347.0341.0
6.0
86.791.8
116.0
98.617.424.2
18.217.7
-.5
-1.3
-166.1
-31.4-134.7
III
645.2
286.9280.2
6.3.4
66.6
55.537.09.88.8
236.2
832.5
278.1201.276.9
343.5337.5
6.0
87.2101.0125.8
108.117.724.8
22.317.8
-4.5
-.4
-187.3
-25.9-161.4
IV r
295.0289.1
5.5.4
55.936.910.09.0
240.2
847.8
275.6206.069.6
349.6341.2
8.3
86.4104.7129.6
111.618.024.9
31.427.2
-4.2
0
-25.7
Table 3.3.State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures
Receipts
Personal tax and nontaxreceipts
Income taxesNontaxesOther
Corporate profits tax accru-als
Indirect business tax andnontax accruals
Sales taxes.Property taxesOther
Contributions for social in-surance
Federal grants-in-aid...
Expenditures
Purchases of goods andservices
Compensation of employ-ees
OtherTransfer payments to per-
sonsNet interest paid
Interest paidLess: Interest received
Less: Dividends received
Subsidies less current sur-plus of governmententerprises
SubsidiesLess: Current surplus of
government enterprises-
Less: Wage accruals lessdisbursements
Surplus or deficit(-), NIPA's
Social insurance fundsOther
439.1
97451836492
127
210.0955851293
35 1839
4078
3905
22301675
45619829949.7
2.3
635
6.7
o
31.3
33.21 9
483.2
110 559441 1100
164
231.9105994431 6
37 9865
432 1
4148
24041743
49322733856.6
2.8
655
7.0
o
51.1
36.1150
442.8
99353037094
130
212.096586429 1
35 4830
411 4
3940
22501690
46019930650.5
2.4
635
6.7
o
31.3
33.52 1
4507
101 253538195
119
216.6980888298
36 1850
417 8
4005
22951710
47 121 131 552.6
2.5
625
6.7
o
32.9
34.21 2
461 7
104 155 139396
129
222.0100 4912305
36 9858
421 3
4040
2338170 1
48322032354.3
2.6
635
6.8
o
40.4
34.95 5
4787
108 458040499
162
229.91050935313
37 5867
427 0
4097
238 1171 5
49022533355.8
2.7
645
6.9
o
51.7
35.616 1
4927
113 361 541710 1
184
235.61080955321
38 2872
437 i
4202
2426177649423034357.3
2.8
655
7.1
o
55.5
36.618 9
116 463 1430103
240.01100973327
38 9864
442 9
4253
24721780
50723435458.8
3.0
675
7.2
o
37.3
Gross national product
Personal consumptionexpenditures
Durable goodsNondurable goodsServices
Gross private domesticinvestment
Fixed investmentNon residential
StructuresProducers' durable equipment ..
ResidentialNonfarm structuresFarm structures ,Producers' durable equipment ..
Change in business inventories
Net exports of goods andservices
ExportsImports
Government purchases ofgoods and services
FederalNational defenseNondefense
State and local
Index numbers, 1972=100
1982
206.88
205.3174.8209.0211.6
215.3209.7265.8183.1240.2244.0245.9168.7
236.0278.9
222.5222.0227.7210.0222.9
1983 r
215.67
213.4178.7213.8224.4
216.4206.9264.0183.0246.6249.6251.2172.5
241.7271.5
235.2233.2237.7222.0236.6
Seasonally adjusted1982
III
208.03
206.9176.1210.2213.4
215.3209.6264.3183.3240.9244.9242.4169.8
236.3281.8
224.4223.8228.3213.9224.7
IV
210.00
209.0176.1211.2217.2
215.7209.9265.4183.2238.4241.5249.9171.1
235.6278.5
226.8224.4234.3205.7228.5
1983
I
212.83
210.1177.3210.6219.8
215.9207.7264.0181.8244.9248.2248.2171.7
238.0265.4
231.3230.9234.9221.7231.6
II
214.55
212.5177.5213.4223.1
215.5206.3263.7182.1243.9246.8249.8171.5
240.2270.7
234.0232.7236.7222.6234.8
III
216.44
214.7179.1215.5225.7
217.0206.3263.7182.7249.0251.9251.5172.4
242.5278.1
236.5233.8238.8221.7238.3
IV r
218.67
216.2180.6215.7228.7
217.1207.4264.6185.1248.0250.8254.7174.4
246.0271.0
239.1235.4240.22222241.5
Table 7.2.Fixed-Weighted Price Indexes for Gross National Product,1972 Weights
Gross national product
Personal consumptionexpenditures
Durable goodsNondurable goodsServices
Gross private domesticinvestment
Fixed investmentNonresidential
StructuresProducers' durable equipment ..
ResidentialChange in business inventories
Net exports of goods andservices
ExportsImports
Government purchases ofgoods and services ,
Federal. ..National defenseNondefense
State and local
Addenda:Gross domestic purchases1Final salesFinal sales to domestic purchas-
ers1
Personal consumption expendi-tures, food
Personal consumption expendi-tures, energy . .. . . .
Other personal consumption ex-penditures
Gross domestic productBusiness
Nonfarm
Index numbers, 1972 = 100
1982
214.7
213.2181.2219.0218.9
231.5225.7246.2214.0242.4
244.1309.4
226.4230.6236.7215.0223.6
218.9214.7
218.9
217.3
363.7
198.1
214.7215.2215.2
1983 r
223.9
221.9185.9223.3233.0
234.8230.3248.5219.9243.4
249.2299.4
236.9238.1244.1222.9236.1
227.1223.9
227.2
221.8
365.6
208.7
224.0223.6
Seasonally adjusted1982
III
216.2
214.7182.3220.1220.8
232.8227.2246.9215.9243.3
244.2306.7
227.5230.8236.6215.8225.3
220.2216.3
220.3
218.2
366.8
199.7
216.3216.8
IV
218.7
217.4182.9221.7225.3
232.5228.6248.2217.4240.0
243.9306.1
231.4235.6241.9219.7228.6
222.7218.8
222.8
218.4
374.9
202.6
218.8218.8
1983
I
220.6
218.3183.9220.0228.5
235.6229.9248.1219.4246.5
245.8303.2
233.7237.0242.9221.7231.5
224.3220.6
224.3
219.5
357.0
205.1
220.6220.8
II
222.9
220.9184.8222.7231.6
235.2230.1247.5220.1244.9
247.4298.2
235.2236.2241.8221.9234.5
226.1222.9
226.2
222.3
362.9
207.4
223.0223.0
III
225.5
223.3186.6224.4234.8
237.4230.9248.4220.8249.7
249.8299.4
238.3238.7244.7223.3238.0
228.7225.5
228.7
221.6
370.4
210.2
225.5225.6
IV r
227.7
225.6188.4226.0238.0
237.6231.9250.1221.4248.6
253.7298.6
240.6240.4246.6224.6240.6
230.6227.8
230.7
223.6
372.2
212.7
227.8227.8
Table 7.1-7.2:1. Gross domestic purchases equals GNP less exports plus imports; final sales to domestic pur-
chasers equals final sales less exports plus imports.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
February 1984 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
Table 8.1.Percent Change From Preceding Period in Gross National Product in Current and Constant Dollars, Implicit Price Deflators, andPrice Indexes
Gross national product:Current dollars ....1972 dollarsImplicit price deflator ..,Chain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Personal consumption expenditures:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Durable goods:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorsChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Nondurable goods:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed- weighted price index
Services:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price index
Gross private domesticinvestment:
Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflator
Fixed-weighted price index
Fixed investment:
1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price index
Nonresidential:Current dollars .1972 dollarsImplicit price deflator
Fixed-weighted price index ...Structures:
Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price
Producers' durableequipment:
Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflator
Fixed-weighted priceindex
Residential:Current dollars1972 dollarsPh c ' HPFixed-weighted price index ...
Exports:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorP1 t\ Vit H ' ' H
Imports:
1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Percent
1982
4.01.96.06.56.4
7.31.45.85.95.7
3.5.9
4.54.75.0
3.7.5
3.23.22.9
11.22.98.18.48.6
127-14.5
-3.8-6.9
3.35.24.7
-1.1-4.7
3.85.85.6
6.41.84.65.1
4.1
-5.7-7.5
2.06.2
6.7
-13.01542.93.23.1
-5.7-7.8
2.22.62.4
-3.61.4
-5.020
-3.1
1983 r
7.73.34.24.44.3
8.34.23.94.24.1
14.211.72.22.32.6
5.63.22.32.22.0
8.92.76.06.26.5
13.612.2
9.28.7.5.6
1.4
.21.5
-1.31.12.0
7 3-6.7_ 7-'.5
.9
5.35.4.0
2.3
2.8
44.040.32.7
-1.5.4
-3.1-5.4
2.42.32.1
4.27.0
-2.72.2
-3.2
Percent at annual rates
Seasonally adjusted1982
III
2.7-1.0
3.75.95.9
7.5.9
6.56.46.7
.73.74.52.93.5
6.41.35.15.55.9
10.12.17.88.18.4
65-5.8
-11.7-9.6-2.3
2.32.3
-11.3-8.8-2.8
3.03.7
10 9-7.2-4.1
1.2
1.4
-11.6-9.6-2.2
4.2
5.2
-13.0-13.0I
-.1-.2
-18.9-19.2
.4g
-1.0
17.74.5
12.6-3.0
32
IV
2.51.33.85.04.7
7.83.64.15.15.1
15.115.2-.11.51.4
3.41.51.92.62.9
9.51.97.48.08.3
-38.0-34.6
3.42.7
.6
.5-.5
-6.0-6.6
.62.02.4
4 0-5.5
1.61.4
2.0
-7.4-7.1-.32.4
2.6
46.953.24 i
-5.2-5.4
-25.3244
-1.12
-.5
-29.6-26.1-4.6-.9-.8
1983
I
8.22.65.53.63.4
5.22.92.22.31.6
10.77.62.82.12.1
2.13.21 1
-1.9-3.1
6.31.44.85.75.9
31.528.6
9.28.8
.42.85.4
-5.7-1.5-4.2
.52.3
156-13.9-2.0-2.7
1
1.85.0
-3.02.8
3.8
75.357.311.411.211.4
6.82.44.33.63.2
7512.1
-17.5-2.6
38
II
13.39.73.34.34.3
15.110.04.64.74.9
33.232.6
.51.11.9
12.16.45.35.35.1
13.06.46.25.25.5
53.949.8
20.521.5-.8
-1.0-.7
5.17.9
-2.6-.5
.3
-15.314 9-.5
-2.9
1 0
20.619.8
.71.1
1.2
76.779.5
-1.62 5
-2.6
.2-3.2
3.63.12.6
37.426.88.3
-3.0-6.3
III
11.57.63.64.54.7
6.52.24.24.24.4
7.63.73.73.64.1
7.83.64.12.83.1
5.3.6
4.75.45.7
53.645.1
26.222.72.92.63.7
18.818.7
.1
.71.4
11.211.10.5
1.6
23.622.01.3.8
1.3
47.535.98.68.08.0
18.213.73.94.23.9
31.518.111.31.41.5
IV r
9.24.94.24.44.1
8.75.72.84.34.3
22.218.33.33.83.7
4.44.1.3
2.62.9
8.53.05.45.75.6
23.521.7
22.121.8
.3
.3
.5
31.929.02.21.11.7
12.511.01.41.9
2.7
44.537.15.4
.7
1.1
.21.8
-1.6-1.7-1.7
13.87.36.06.46.3
13.625.9
-9.8.1
-1.0
Government purchases of goods andservices:
Current dollars1972 dollars
Chain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Federal:
1972 dollars
Fixed-weighted price index
National defense:
1972 dollars
Chain price indexFixed-weighted price index ...
Nondefense:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflator .Chain price indexFixed-weighted price index ...
State and local:Current dollars1Q79 rl nil a TOImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Final sales:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Final sales to domestic purchasers:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Gross domestic product:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflator..Chain price indexFixed-weighted price index ,
Business:Current dollars1972 dollars -.Implicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed- weighted price index
Nonfarm:Current dollars1972 dollarsImplicit price deflatorChain price indexFixed-weighted price index
Disposable personalincome:
Current dollars ,.1972 dollars
Percent
1982
9.01.87.07.26.7
12.95.66.97.37.3
16.57.18.88.27.5
5.42.72.75.56.6
6.6
7.17.16.3
4.4-1.0
5.46.05.7
5.5-.76.36.56.4
5.9.2
5.66.05.8
4.2-1.7
6.06.56.4
3.4-2.0
5.66.16.0
3.6-2.2
5.96.461
6.3.5
1983 r
6.3.5
5.75.34.6
6.41.25.14.03.3
11.66.94.43.93.1
-5.410.65.74.23.7
6.2.1
6.26.15.6
8.64.53.93.93.8
7.22.94.14.44.3
8.04.13.83.93.8
7.93.54.24.44.3
8.04.03.94.13.9
8.44.33.9
7.33.2
Percent at annual rates
Seasonally adjusted1982
III
16.19.46.25.85.3
32.126.34.63.83.6
20.814.05.93.83.0
64.659.83.03.75.4
6.8 41.27.16.4
7.11.65.55.75.6
1.9-1.5
3.45.96.0
6.21.05.25.75.6
3.2-.53.75.96.0
2.5-.53.15.75.8
2.4-.22.6
6.13
IV
15.510.64.47.27.0
29.528.31.07.68.7
16.55.1
10.88.79.2
64.692.5
-14.55.07.3
6.8-.16.96.95.9
1.8-1.1
3.04.94.6
9.44.54.75.04.7
8.84.83.84.94.6
2.6-1.2
3.85.04.7
1.4-1.4
2.84.23.8
.4-3.3
3.8
6.82.6
1983
I
13-8.8
8.24.74.0
8 0-18.0
12.23.82.3
7.86.51.23.11.7
-36.0-52.6
35.05.33.8
3.5-1.8
5.45.45.2
6.73.33.33.02.8
5.8.6
5.23.63.4
4.31.23.02.92.7
8.62.95.53.63.4
8.93.35.43.83.6
10.34.85.2
5.12.9
II
3.6-1.1
4.73.62.6
.3283.2
.6-1.2
10.77.43.1
.2-1.8
22.223.5
1.81.5.3
5.805.85.75.3
16.912.34.13.73.4
9.86.82.84.34.3
13.39.33.73.73.4
13.59.93.24.34.3
14.911.53.04.14.1
16.112.82.9
8.23.5
III
9.04.44.45.65.3
6.64.61.94.94.2
3.603.65.34.8
14.916.9
-1.73.72.6
10.74.36.16.26.1
12.87.94.54.34.5
8.45.13.24.64.7
9.75.44.14.34.5
11.17.33.64.64.7
12.18.43.44.54.7
12.18.43.4
11.06.5
IV r
1.5274.44.23.9
-3.5602.72.72.9
10.07.42.33.03.1
32.833.5
.92.02.4
4.955.45.24.6
9.26.32.83.73.5
9.04.84.04.34.2
9.06.32.63.73.5
9.14.74.24.34.1
9.65.34.14.34.0
9.95.83.8
11.07.9
NOTE.The implicit price deflator for GNP is a weighted average of the detailed price indexesused in the deflation of GNP. In each period, the weights are based on the composition ofconstant-dollar output in that period. In other words, the price index for each item (1972=100)is weighted by the ratio of the quantity of the item valued in 1972 prices to the total output in1972 prices. Changes in the implicit price deflator reflect both changes in prices and changes in
the composition of output. The chain price index uses as weights the composition of output inthe prior period, and therefore reflects only the change in prices between the two periods.However, comparisons of percent changes in the chain index also reflect changes in thecomposition of output. The fixed-weighted price index uses as weights the composition of outputin 1972. Accordingly, comparisons over any time span reflect only changes in prices.
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS February 1984
Reconciliation and Other Special Tables
Table 1.Reconciliation of Changes in Compensation Per Hour in the Business Economy OtherThan Farm and Housing and Average Hourly Earnings in the Private Nonfarm Economy,Seasonally Adjusted
1. Compensation per hour of all persons in the business economy other than farm and housing(percent change at annual rate) 1
2 Less* Contribution of supplements
4. Less: Contribution of employees of government enterprises and self-employed and unpaid familyworkers ..
5. Equals: Wages and salaries per hour of employees in the private nonfarm economy (percentchange at annual rate)
7 Less' Contribution of non-BLS data detailed weighting and seasonal adjustment8. Equals: Average hourly earnings, production and nonsupervisory workers in the private
nonfarm economy (percent change at annual rate)
I
7.11 l
3
.2
5.5
- 3
2
5.9
19
II
4.5
.33
.1
3.7
-.5
.5
3.7
33
IIP
4.1
.4
2
.2
3.4
-.4
.9
2.9
IV
3.7
.5
o
.4
3.6_ .1
-1.9
5.6
r Revised.
p Preliminary.
1. BLS estimates of changes in hourly compensation in the nonfarm business sector for the four quarters are 6.8, 4.3, 3.8, and4.5 percent.
Table 2.National Defense Purchases of Goods and Services
National defense purchases..
Durable goodsMilitary equipment
AircraftMissilesShipsVehicles .Electronics equipmentOther
Other durable goods
Nondurable goodsBulk petroleum productsAmmunitionClothing and textilesOther nondurable goods
ServicesCompensation of employees
MilitaryCivilian
Other servicesContractual research and developmentTravelTransportationCommunicationsDepot maintenanceOther ....
StructuresMilitary facilitiesOther
Addenda:Total purchases less compensationTotal purchases less compensation and bulk petro-
leum
Seasonally adjusted at annual ratesBillions of dollars
1982
IV
190.8
53.642.918.06.15.73.83.36.0
10.7
15.010.62.5
.71.2
118.170.642.228.447.514.42.73.31.07.5
18.5
4.12.51.6
120.2
109.6
1983
I
194.4
55.345.518.07.85.83.73.46.99.7
14.810.12.6
.91.2
120.371.542.429.148.816.22.43.11.07.6
18.4
3.92.31.6
122.9
112.8
II
199.4
60.149.821.16.77.34.33.56.9
10.2
14.09.52.31.01.1
120.771.742.529.249.015.92.63.41.18.0
18.1
4.62.91.7
127.7
118.1
III
201.2
58.548.419.67.46.94.23.66.7
10.0
13.78.82.9
.91.2
124.271.842.629.352.416.22.63.71.28.4
20.3
4.73.01.7
129.3
120.5
IV
206.0
62.452.921.29.27.54.83.66.69.5
12.67.62.9
.91.1
126.272.142.729.454.117.52.84.01.19.0
19.7
4.83.11.7
133.9
126.3
Billions of 1972 dollars
1982
IV
81.4
22.817.76.82.42.31.31.83.15.1
3.01.2
9.4.5
53.834.120.014.119.75.91.11.4.6
2.68.1
1.81.2
.7
47.3
46.2
1983
I
82.7
23.518.96.53.62.31.31.83.54.6
3.11.2
9.5.5
54.334.220.014.220.1
6.61.01.3
.62.58.0
1.71.1
.7
48.5
47.3
II
84.2
25.220.47.92.82.91.51.93.44.8
3.11.2
9.5.5
53.934.220.014.219.76.31.11.4.6
2.57.7
2.01.3.7
50.0
48.8
III
84.2
23.719.06.43.22.71.41.93.34.7
3.11.110.5.5
55.434.220.014.221.26.51.11.6
.72.78.7
2.01.3
.7
50.0
48.9
IV
85.7
24.920.56.83.93.01.61.93.34.4
3.0.9
10.5.5
55.934.220.014.221.6
6.91.21.7.6
2.98.3
2.01.4.7
51.5
50.6
Percent change from preceding period at annual rates
Implicit price deflator
1982
IV
10.8
4.66.5
.936.74.1
.86.1
-1.03.7
9.06.6
122-2.9
6.9
12.113.915.511.68.87.81.4
-2.299
26.27.6
1.1.6
3.3
8.5
6.5
1983
I
1.2
-.5-2.425.9
-45.71.7
11.32.81.2
.7
-21.9210172.4
-5.2
4.13.6
.78.04.43.664
-2.525.814.62.8
4.31.37.3
8
1.6
II
3.1
5.96.0
15 546.33.4-.82.75.24.1
-14.325588
.83.6
4.3.9.7
1.210.39.68.05.159
21.19.1
4.57.03.5
3.5
6.7
III
3.6
15.318.674.0
-11.75.61.2
-1.3.1
2.7
-8.63.8
15 106.1
.51.21.11.2
-3.3-.8
-3.6-19.7
.9-2.3-.8
7.08.85.0
4.9
7.1
IV
2.3
6.56.2
10.15.72 41.42.81.7
3
-13.7.9
149.95
3.01.2
.62.04.74.41.34.83.1495.2
1.51.92.6
2.1
5.5
Fixed-weighted price index
1982
IV
10.0
8.210.016.913.46.74 42.002.0
1.0.4
66-.70
11.814.015.511.67.7
12.02.8
-3.62.9
12.76.1
5.47.22.0
6.9
7.6
1983
I
2.4
4.44.27.6
-6.15.41.03.72.25.2
-16.023910504.3
3.73.5
.78.04.12.5451.32.98.56.9
7.99.25.4
1.6
4.5
II
1.6
3.13.32.1
13.2.7
3.01.43.02.7
-14.6-21.2
141.33.5
2.5.9.7
1.25.76.14.38.6
55.45.4
10.313.44.3
2.1
4.5
III
1.7
6.68.4
16.71.11.19.3
.5
.7
.6
-8.8-13.1
170.3
.71.21.11.3
-.4-.352
-14.4.9
-.45.1
11.213.76.2
2.1
3.5
IV
4.8
12.916.738.51 0
6-1.5
4.14.2
1.80
1230.3
2.31.1.6
2.04.78.56.21.23.3
.23.5
1.1.5
2.5
7.8
8.5
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-
By JOSEPH C. WAKEFIELD and RICHARD C. ZIEMER
Federal Fiscal Programs
THE fiscal year 1985 budget, pre-sented to Congress in early February,continues the basic fiscal policy intro-duced by the administration in 1981.According to the administration, thispolicy will provide for sustained long-term economic growth without rapidinflation. The main features of thenew budget are:
A continued rapid increase in na-tional defense spending;
A continued reduction in thegrowth of nondefense spending;
Adherence to a policy of no majortax increases.
National defense spending increasesover 14 percent in 1985 (over 9 per-cent in real terms, according to theadministration). Increases are pro-vided for virtually all weapons-sys-tems projects already underway; nonew projects are proposed. Otherlarge increases are for operations andmaintenance and for research and de-velopment.
Nondefense spending increases 6percent; in real terms the increase is1 percent. Major increases are insocial security and medicare and innet interest. Major declines are incommerce and housing credit and innatural resources and environment.
The new budget does propose sometax increases, but on a moderatescale$7.9 billion in 1985. Instead ofproposing major tax increases, the ad-ministration looks forward to reformand simplification of the tax codes.The main goals are to close loopholes,improve taxpayer compliance, andbroaden the tax base so that rates can
NOTE.Hermione A. Anglin, Gary W. Davis,David T. Dobbs, Kathleen M. Downs, Karl D.Galbraith, Thomas M. Holloway, Robert T.Mangan, Donald L. Peters, and Deloris T.Tolson assisted the preparation of this article.
be cut. The Department of the Treas-ury currently is reviewing threemajor options: (1) a "consumption"tax, which would tax what a personspends rather than earns; (2) a broad-based income tax, which would elimi-nate many deductions, exclusions, andexemptions; and (3) a value-added orretail sales tax.
The budget incorporates a newtreatment of outlays for retired mili-
tary personnel under provisions of theFiscal Year 1984 Defense Authoriza-tion Act. This act established a mili-tary retirement trust fund, effectiveOctober 1, 1984, to be financed largelyby employer contributions; militarypersonnel will not contribute. In fiscalyear 1985, all benefits to military re-tirees and survivors will be paid fromthe trust fund and recorded in theincome security function of the
Table 1.Economic Assumptions Underlying the Fiscal Year 1985 Budget
GNP:Current dollars1972 dollars
Incomes:Personal income
Wages and salaries.Corporate profits before taxes
GNP in current dollars:Annual averageFourth quarter
GNP in 1972 dollars:Annual averageFourth quarter
GNP deflator:Annual average .... . .Fourth quarter
Consumer price index:Annual averageFourth quarter
Unemployment rate:Annual averageFourth quarter
Insured unemployment rate: lAnnual averageFourth quarter
Interest rate:91-day Treasury bills 210-year Treasury notes
Calendar year
Actual
1982 1983
Estimates
1984 1985
Billions of dollars
3,073.01,485.4
2,578.61,568.1
174.2
3,309.51,534.8
2,741.91,664.4
205.3
3,642.41,616.0
2,977.81,802.1
255.2
3,973.81,682.2
3,223.51,945.8
291.9
Percent change from preceding year
4.02.6
1 9-1.7
CyT4.4
6.04.5
7.710.4
3.36.1
) 4.2[ 4.1
3.02.9
10.19.8
5.34.5
4.55.0
4.44.5
9.18.9
4.14.0
4.84.7
4.64.7
Percent
9.510.5
4.75.2
10.713.0
9.58.4
3.83.3
8.611.1
7.87.7
3.33.3
8.510.3
7.67.5
3.33.3
7.79.2
1. Insured unemployment under the State regular unemployment insurance program, excluding recipients of extendedbenefits, as percentage of covered employment under that program.
2. Average rate on new issues within the year. The estimates assume, by convention, that interest rates vary with the rate ofinflation. They do not represent a forecast of interest rates.
Source: "The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1985."
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10 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS February 1984CHART 1
Federal Fiscal Position: Surplus or DeficitBillion $0
-50
-100
-150
-200
HIPACyclically Adjusted, NtPAUnified Budget
1975 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84* 85*Fiscal Year
* Estimates from the Office of Management and Budget, and BEA.NOTE.The cyclically adjusted surplus or deficit is based on a middle-expansion trend GNP.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
budget (rather than in the nationaldefense function). A monthly paymentto the trust fund by the Departmentof Defense (DOD), equal to 51 percentof military basic pay, will cover allcosts associated with future retire-ment liabilities of current employees.In addition, the Department of theTreasury will make annual paymentsto the trust fund over the next 40-50years to cover the unfunded retire-ment liability built up before estab-lishment of the trust fund; i.e., tocover past liabilities of retirees andcurrent employees.
The effect of the legislation is toput in place a mechanism to handlemilitary retirement that is similar tothat for civilian retirement. In theFederal sector of the national incomeand product accounts (NIPA's), Gov-ernment payments to the civil serviceretirement trust fund, which are fornewly created liabilities and arebased on current employment levelsand payrolls, are treated as employercontributions for social insurance andthus as employee compensation. Be-cause, as mentioned above, theannual military payment is for liabil-ities already existing at the establish-
ment of the fund and is based onforce levels and payrolls of the past,treatment similar to the civil servicetrust fund carries implications formilitary compensation for earlier pe-riods. Accordingly, BEA decided totreat the military trust fund transac-tions as intragovernmental transac-tions until the next comprehensive re-vision of the NIPA's. Meanwhile,BEA will review alternative treat-ments, including one that would treatthe monthly and annual payments asemployer contributions for social in-surance and as military compensa-tion, (1) with the estimates reflectingthe monthly payments beginning inthe fourth quarter of 1984, and (2)with revisions in the historical esti-mates to reflect the annual payments'funding of the retirement system asthough the payments were made asthe liabilities accrued.
Economic assumptionsThe economic assumptions underly-
ing the fiscal year 1985 budget areshown in table 1. GNP in constantdollars is forecast to increase 4.5 per-cent from the fourth quarter of 1983
to the fourth quarter of 1984 and 4percent to the fourth quarter of 1985.The forecast for 1984 assumes a sub-stantial increase in real businessfixed investment. State and local gov-ernment purchases of goods and serv-ices are also assumed to contributemore to real GNP growth than in1983. Some slowdown is expected in1984 in the growth of personal con-sumption expenditures, residentialconstruction, and inventory invest-mentnormal developments in asecond year of economic recovery.Prices, as measured by the GNP de-flator, increase 5.0 percent to thefourth quarter of 1984 and 4.7 percentto the fourth quarter of 1985. Accord-ing to the Council of Economic Advis-ers, the increase in the rate of infla-tion in 1984 "reflects the view that1983 inflation was depressed to somedegree by cyclical factors and two spe-cial factors that seem unlikely torecur in 1984. The two special factorswere the decline in energy pricesearly in 1983 and the continuing ap-preciation of the foreign exchangevalue of the dollar over the year."The unemployment rate is forecast tobe 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of1984 and 7.5 percent in the fourthquarter of 1985.
Unified budgetThe unified budget deficit decreases
from $183.7 billion in fiscal year 1984to $180.4 billion in fiscal year 1985(table 2 and chart 1).
Table 2.Federal Government Receipts andExpenditures[Billions of dollars]
Unified budget
ReceiptsOutlays
Surplus or deficit ( )National income and product
accounts
ReceiptsExpenditures
Surplus or deficit ( )Cyclically adjusted surplus or
deficit ( ) l
I
Actual
1983
60067960
1954
63078164
-1857
1306
''iscal yeai
Estin
1984
67018538
1837
6913875 5
-1842
1680
lates
1985
7451925 5
1804
7792947 8
-1686
173 0
1. The cyclically adjusted budget is based on a middle-expansion trend GNP. A discussion of the middle-expansiontrend GNP and the cyclical adjustment of the Federal Govern-ment budget is presented in the December 1983 SURVEY OFCURRENT BUSINESS.
Sources: "The Budget of the United States Government,Fiscal Year 1985," and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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February 1984 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 11
Receipts increase $75.0 billionor11.2 percentin 1985, to $745.1 bil-lion. Receipts in 1984 are $670.1 bil-lion, up 11.6 percent from 1983. Taxreductions provided under the Eco-nomic Recovery Tax Act of 1981(ERTA) reduce receipts $165.0 billionin 1985 and $133.6 billion in 1984. Tax
Table 3.Relation of Current Services Budgetto Unified Budget
[Billions of dollars]
Receipts
Current services estimate . .
Plus: Proposed legislation:Petroleum overcharge fundTaxation of health insurance premi-
umsCurtailment of tax abuseStructural tax reformOther
Equals: Unified budget
Outlays
Current services estimate
Plus: Proposed program increases:International security assistanceOther
Proposed program reductions:National defenseNondefense:
Net interest paidMedicaidMedicareCivilian pay raisesFederal employee retirement and
disabilityFood and nutrition assistanceNatural resources and environment.Other
Equals: Unified budget
Fiscal year
1984
666.6
2.0
.8
.8-.1
670.1
854.0
.3
.2
1
-.1
2-.1
3
853.8
1985
737.3
3.93.21.1
2
745.1
944.9
3.02.5
-12.9
1810
-1.010
7-.6-.554
925.5
Source: "The Budget of the United States Government,Fiscal Year 1985."
Table 4.Relation of Federal Government Re-ceipts in the National Income and ProductAccounts to the Unified Budget
[Billions of dollars]
Unified budget receipts
Less' Coverage differences
Plus: Netting differences:Contributions to govern-
ment employees retire-ment funds .. .
Other
Timing differences:Corporate income taxFederal and State unem-
ployment insurance taxes-Withheld personal income
tax and social securitycontributions
Excise taxesOther
Miscellaneous
Equals: Federal Government receipts,NIPA
Fiscal year
1983
600.6
1.4
12.29.4
4.1
1.4
3.3.6.4
0
630.7
1984
670.1
1.7
13.012.1
-5.1
.5
2.4-.2
.1
0
691.3
1985
745.1
1.9
14.413.5
3.2
.9
4.0-.2
.1
0
779.2
increases provided under the TaxEquity and Fiscal Responsibility Actof 1982 (TEFRA), the Highway Reve-nue Act of 1982, and the Social Secu-rity Amendments of 1983 raise re-ceipts $52.7 billion in 1985 and $45.7billion in 1984. Receipts are reducedan additional $2.4 billion in 1985 and$2.6 billion in 1984 by the Interestand Dividends Compliance Act of1983. This act repealed the withhold-ing of income taxes on interest anddividends as provided for by TEFRA.Proposed legislationincluding tax-ation of employer-paid health insur-ance premiums and the curtailmentof tax abuseraise receipts, on bal-ance, $7.9 billion in 1985 and $3.5 bil-lion in 1984.
Outlays increase $71.7 billionor8.4 percentin 1985, to $925.5 billion.Outlays in 1984 are $853.8 billion, up7.3 percent from 1983. Almost one-half of the increase is for the nationaldefense function and another one-fourth is for a newly created function-al category, social security and medi-care. Four other functionsnet inter-est, international affairs, agriculture,and healthmore than account forthe remainder of the increase. Allother functions decline on balance.The administration is again proposingvarious outlay reductions; these total$24.9 billion in 1985 and most requirelegislation.
Current services estimates
Current services estimates showwhat receipts and outlays would bewithout policy changes. They are nei-ther recommended amounts nor fore-casts, but rather are a base withwhich administration or congressionalproposals can be compared. The levelof outlays is that needed to maintainongoing Federal programs and activi-ties at 1984 levels in real terms. Themajor exception is for the military ac-tivities of DOD. For those activities,the 1985 estimate is from the admin-istration's request at the 1984 midses-sion review.
Unified budget receipts in 1985 are$7.9 billion higher than current serv-ices receipts, reflecting proposed taxincreases of $9.0 billion and tax re-ductions of $1.0 billion (table 3). Themajor proposed tax increases for 1985are the taxation of health insurancepremiums ($3.9 billion) and curtail-
ment of tax abuse ($3.2 billion). Theadministration proposes, effectiveJanuary 1, 1985, that employees paysocial security and income taxes onemployer-paid health insurance pre-
(text continued on p. 16)
Table 5.Relation of Federal Government Ex-penditures in the National Income and Prod-uct Accounts to the Unified Budget
[Billions of dollars]
Unified budget outlays
Less: Coverage differences:GeographicOff-budget Federal entities:
Federal Financing Bank....Strategic petroleum re-
serveOther
Other
Financial transactions:Net lendingOther
Net purchases of land:Outer Continental ShelfOther
Plus: Netting differences:Contributions to govern-
ment employees retire-ment funds
Other
Timing differences:National defense purchasesOther
Miscellaneous
Equals: Federal Government expendi-tures, NIPA
Fiscal year
1983
796.0
4.9
-10.4
-1.6-.3
.5
16.70
-7.4.1
12.29.4
1.0.1
.1
816.4
1984
853.8
5.1
-12.7
-2.2-1.3
.5
20.9.3
-5.1.1
13.012.1
.61.7
.1
875.5
1985
925.5
5.2
-10.2
-1.730.1
15.7.1
-4.0.1
14.413.5
-1.91 2
0
947.8
Table 6.Breakdown of Changes in FederalReceipts, NIPA Basis
[Billions of dollars]
Total receipts
Due to tax basesDue to tax changes l
EnactedProposed
Personal tax and nontax receiptsDue to tax basesDue to tax changes
EnactedProposed
Corporate profits tax accrualsDue to tax basesDue to tax changes
EnactedProposed
Indirect business tax and nontax ac- ....cruals
Due to tax basesDue to tax changes
EnactedProposed
Contributions for social insuranceDue to tax basesDue to tax changes
EnactedProposed
Change frompreceding fiscal year
1983
3.0
31.8-28.8-28.8
-15.125.5
-40.6406
3.04.7
-1.7-1.7
.4-5.5
5.95.9
14.77.17.67.6
1984
60.6
75.5-14.9
1863.7
6.837.330531 3
.8
20.523.4
-2.9-3.8
.9
5.9-.76.64.62.0
27.415.511.911.9
1985
87.9
84.73.2235.5
38.748.91021464.4
18.720.0
-1.3-2.0
.7
-1.2.7
-1.9.1
-2.0
31.715.116.614.22.4
1. Consists of all tax changes since fiscal year 1981.
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12 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS February 1984
The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981.The EconomicRecovery Tax Act (ERTA) was enacted in August 1981; acomplete description of ERTA is in the August 1981SURVEY.
Major provisions are: An across-the-board reduction in individual income tax
rates over 33 months5 percent on October 1, 1981, 10percent on July 1, 1982, and 10 percent on July 1, 1983.These reductions compound to a reduction of 23 per-cent. Starting in 1985, income tax brackets, the zerobracket amount, and the personal exemption will be ad-justed for inflation as measured by the Consumer PriceIndex.
An accelerated cost recovery system that provides sub-stantially faster depreciation write-offs for business.The new system assigns depreciable lives of 3 years formost vehicles, 5 years for most equipment, 10 years forcertain public utility property, and 15 years for mostdepreciable real estate and some long-lived public util-ity property.
Incentives for persons who put savings in specified sav-ings accounts and repeal of the exclusion from grossincome of interest and dividends.
A substantial reduction in estate and gift taxes. An increase in the windfall profit tax credit for quali-
fied royalty recipients.
The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982.The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act [TEFRA]was enacted in September 1982; a complete discussion ofTEFRA is in the September 1982 SURVEY.
Major provisions are: Withholding of 10 percent on interest and dividend pay-
ments, effective July 1, 1983. (This provision was re-pealed by the Interest and Dividends Tax ComplianceAct of 1983, summarized later.)
Strengthening of compliance provisions, such as the re-porting of State and local government income tax re-funds.
Modification of the deductions for medical expenses andcasualty losses, generally effective January 1, 1983.
Repeal of modified coinsurance transactions, effectiveJanuary 1, 1982, and introduction of other changes thatreduce insurance industry taxes.
Repeal of safe-harbor leasing, effective January 1, 1984,and enactment of various other modifications and re-strictions for leasing that are generally effective July 1,1982.
Modification and tightening of regulations governinglong-term contract accounting, effective January 1, 1983for new contracts.
Temporary increases in airport and airway taxes, ciga-rette taxes, and telephone taxes.
An increase in the wage base and tax rate for unem-ployment taxes, effective January 1, 1983.
Extensions of hospital insurance coverage under medi-care to Federal employees, effective January 1, 1983.
Table 7.Selected Tax[Billions of
Line
1
2
34
56789
101112131415
16
17181920
2122232425
26
Direct impact on Federal sector deficit, NIPA basis 1
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Kconomic Recovery Tax ActWithheld
Rate reductions:October 1981July 1982July 1983
Other
Declarations and net settlementsRate reductionsMarried couples deductionAccelerated cost recovery system
Other
Estate and gift taxes
Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility ActWithheld
Interest and dividendsOther
Declarations and net settlementsInterest and dividendsIncreased enforcementDeduction for medical expensesOther
Estate and gift tax
Fiscal year
1983
-48.8
-74.1
78 1-54.6
-18.6-27.3-7.5
-1.2
-21.1-8.0-2.7-2.9-1.2-6.3
2 4
9.26.64.91.7
2.4-.21.6.1.9
.2
1984
-63.7
-104.6
-113.1-82.4
-20.0-29.3-31.5
-1.6
-27.0-8.9-5.4-4.3-.3
-8.1
37
15.525.022.42.6
-9.8-14.8
1.31.62.1
.3
1985
-60.5
-114.8
1332-95.8
-22.4-32.6-35.1
35-2.2
-32.5-10.6-5.4-5.7
-10.8
49
13.324.121.23.0
-11.1-17.4
1.31.53.5
.3
Calendar year
1981
7.2
-4.8
48-4.5
-4.4
-.1
-.3-.1
-Y
1982
-25.9
-41.0
-41.0-32.2
-18.0-13.4
-.8
-8.2-3.7_ 2
-L73
-2.3
6
1983
-52.2
-82.1
-86.8-62.9
-18.9-27.6-15.1
-1.3
-21.1-8.0-2.7-2.9
1 2-6.3
28
17.214.512.22.3
2.4-.21.6.1.9
.3
1984
-60.7
-106.9
-115.5-84.5
-20.5-30.0-32.3
-1.7
-27.0-8.9-5.4-4.3
3-8.1
40
13.422.920.22.7
-9.8-14.8
1.31.62.1
.3
1985
-63.9
-119.7
139.3-101.5
-23.1-33.6-36.2
632.3
-32.5-10.6-5.4-5.7
-10.8
53
13.724.521.53.0
-11.1-17.4
1.31.53.5
.3
1981
I
13.4
II
12.4
III
10.8
-.6
-.6
-.6-.2
-A
IV
-7.8
-18.6
18.6-18.0
-17.6
-.4
-.6-.2
-'.4"
See footnotes at end of table.
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February 1984 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 13
The Highway Revenue Act of 1982.This legislation wasenacted in January 1983. The major provision of this actwas to increase the existing excise tax on gasoline anddiesel fuel by 5 cents per gallon (from 4 cents to 9 cents)from April 1, 1983, through September 30, 1988.
Other provisions are: Repeal of taxes on automobile tires, small truck tires,
non-highway use tires, inner tubes, and tread rubber. Repeal of taxes on lubricating oil and retail sales of
lightweight trailers and trucks. An increase in taxes on heavy-duty trucks and trailers.
The Social Security Amendments of 1983. This legisla-tion was enacted in April 1983; a more complete discus-sion is in the February 1983 and April 1983 issues of theSURVEY.
Major provisions, effective January 1, 1984, are: Acceleration of previously scheduled rate increases. A 0.3-percentage-point reduction in the employee share
of the rate increase in 1984. An increase in the self-employed tax rate to 100 percent
of the combined employer-employee rate for social secu-rity and the combined medicare rate. Previously therate had been 75 percent and 50 percent, respectively,of the combined rates. A 2.7-percentage-point reductionwas, in effect, provided in 1984; a reduction of 2.3 per-centage points was provided in 1985 and of 2.0 percent-age points in 1986-89.
Mandatory coverage of new Federal civilian employeesand employees of nonprofit organizations. ParticipatingState and local governments will no longer be allowedto withdraw.
Taxation of 50 percent of social security benefits whenincome exceeds $25,000 for single taxpayers and $32,000for married couples. Previously, these benefits had beenexempt from Federal income tax.
Changes, NIPA Basisdollars]
The Interest and Dividends Tax Compliance Act of1983. This legislation was enacted in August 1983. Themajor provision of this act was repeal of the 10-percent in-terest and dividend withholding provision of TEFRA. Thisact replaced the 10-percent withholding provision with a"backup withholding" of 20 percent for recipients who failto provide accurate taxpayer identification information tospecified payers of interest and dividends. Other provi-sions provided for tax incentives on expenses incurred inattending business conventions in qualifying CaribbeanBasin countries.
The Railroad Retirement Revenue Act of 1983. Thislegislation was enacted in August 1983. This legislationwas necessary, as were the social security amendments, toprovide for the long-term financial soundness of the em-ployee retirement system.
Major provisions are: An increase in railroad retirement payroll taxes for em-
ployers and employees. An increase in railroad unemployment insurance taxes
effective January 1, 1984. Taxation of retirement benefits in excess of contribu-
tions.
Calendar year
Seasonally adjusted at annual rates1982
I
-7.7
-23.5
-23.5-18.3
-17.7
-.6
-5.1-1.6-.2
-1.4
-1.9
^
II
-11.8
-26.5
-26.5-18.7
-18.0
-.7
-7.7-3.0-.2
-1.6-.8
-2.1
-.1
III
-40.5
-55.0
-55.0-45.7
-18.1-26.7
-.9
-9.1-4.4-.2
-1.8.4
-2.3
-.2
IV
-43.6
-59.0
-59.0-46.1
-18.2-26.9
-1.0
-10.9-5.8-.2
-2.0
-2.9
-2.0
1983
I
-35.1
-64.3
-68.9-46.6
-18.4-27.1
-1.1
-20.0-7.5-2.7-2.4-1.7-5.7
-2.3
4.62.1
2.1
2.2
1.5
.7
.3
II
-35.2
-67.7
-72.2-47.3
-18.7-27.4
-1.2
-22.3-7.8-2.7-2.7-3.0-6.1
-2.6
5.02.2
2.2
2.5
1.6
.9
.3
III
-67.8
-97.0
-101.7-78.3
-19.1-27.8-30.0
-1.4
-20.6-8.2-2.7-3.1
1-6.5
-2.8
24.521.919.52.4
2.3-.41.7.1.9
.3
IV
-70.7
-99.4
-104.4-794
-19.4-28.1-30.4
-1.5
-21.5-8.5-2.7-3.4
-6.9
-3.5
34.731.829.32.5
2.6-.41.6.3
1.1
.3
1984
I
-62.4
-103.1
-110.4-81.2
-19.7-28.9-31.1
-1.5
-25.6-8.6-5.4-3.7-.5
-7.4
-3.6
14.322.520.02.5
-8.5-13.3
1.31.61.9
.3
II
-60.2
-107.5-114.0-83.3
-20.2-29.6-31.9
-1.6
-26.9-8.7-5.4-4.1-.8
-7.9
-3.8