scb_121961

DECEMBER 1961

survey of

CURRENTBUSINESS

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEOFFICE OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESSDECEMBER 1961 VOL. 41, NO. 12

ContentsBUSINESS REVIEW PAGE

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . < , . . . . . . . . . . . . . < . . 1

Trend of Investment * 2

EXPANSION IN PLANT AND EQUIPMENTTo continue into 1962....... 3

MANUFACTURERS EXPECT HIGHER SALES AND INVENTORIESinearly 1962 7

ADVANCE IN HOUSING CONSTRUCTION............................... 9

PATTERN OF RETIREMENT AND OTHER TRANSFER INCOME FLOW.. II

CORPORATE PROFITS AND NATIONAL INCOME 13

SPECIAL ARTICLERecent Developments in International Trade and Invest-

mentsThird Quarter Balance of International Payments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Rise in Merchandise Imports * . . * , 15

Exports Remain H i g h . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Private Capital M o v e m e n t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Other Long-Term I n v e s t m e n t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

REVISED STATISTICAL SERIES

Inventories of Retail Stores 24

MONTHLY BUSINESS STATISTICS

General... S1-S24

Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S24-S40

Suhjeet Index Inside Back Cover

U.S. Department of CommerceLuther H. Hodges

Secretary

Office of Business Economics

M. Joseph Meehandirector

Louis J. ParadisoManaging Director

Murray F. FossEditor

K. Celeste StokStatistics Edito

Billy Jo DawkinsGraphics

STAFF CONTRIBUTORSTO THIS ISSUE

Business Review and Features:Genevieve B. Wimsatt

Marie P. HertzbergLeonard G. Campbell

L. Jav AtkinsonFrank L. LewisJaequelin Bauman

Article:Walther LedererSamuel PizerJohn B. Boddie, Jr.Max Lechter

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AlUtual 2-3300.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

By Office of Business Economies

uauon

J\_ MARKED rise in consumer pur-chasing featured the expansion inbusiness activity and total output latein 1961. The fourth quarter advancein GNP is comparable in magnitude tothe gains made last spring and increasesare now more widespread. The rise inoutput in the current quarter reflectsmainly higher final purchases ratherthan the effects of changing inventorypolicy, which were prominent in theinitial upsurge.

Activity in November and earlyDecember resulted in increased employ-ment and income, and for the first timein the current recovery there was anoteworthy reduction in the rate ofunemployment.

Retail buying spurts

The most buoyant area of demandat the present time is consumer buyingat retail, which, only a short time ago,was exhibiting a sluggish tendencyrelative to increases in personal income.On a seasonally adjusted basis retailstore sales in November were 3 percentabove those in October. Like theprevious month, the latest gain reflecteda substantial increase in automobilepurchases, though virtually all lines oftrade shared in the November rise.Nondurable goods were up 2 percentfrom October and durables other thanautomobiles were also higher.

With data for 2 months of the quarteralready available, and preliminary indi-cations of good holiday buying, it isclear that retail sales in the final quarterof the year will represent not merely asizable increase over the third but arecord volume. Seasonally adjustedfourth quarter sales already averagealmost $19 billion per month as against$18.1 billion in the third quarter and$18.3 billion in the fourth quarter of

TOTAL RETAIL SALES

1960. The more pronounced gains overthe July-September period are in dur-able goods, with a 10 percent advance;nondurables are up by almost 2 percentover the average for the summer months.

Consumer purchases of automobileshave been vigorous ever since the new1962 models became generally availablelate in September. Sales in the firstfull month of the current model yearOctoberwere better than any previousmonth of 1961 and November salesRETAIL TRADE Picks Up With Income

Acceleration

Billion $20

19

18

17

16

5

4

3

2

1947180

160

140

120

100

Consumers React Favorably to NewAUTOMOBILES This Fall

AUTOMOTIVE GROUP SALES

Preholiday Buying in DEPARTMENTSTORES Reflects Freer Spending

-49=100

DEPARTMENT STORE SALES

I I I I I I I I I I 11 I M I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I 11 I 11 I I t I I

1959 1960 1961 1962Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted

Data: Census, FRB, & OBE

U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 61-12-1

were even higher. Last month dealerssold 585,000 ears, for the best Novem-ber on record.

This improved demand, combinedwith relatively low inventories indealers7 hands, and a strike-free monthfor the first time since August, liftedpassenger car assemblies in Novemberto approximately 650,000 units, thehighest monthly total since the firstquarter of 1960. Though in excess ofsales, the difference is less than iscustomary at this time of the year;thus on a seasonally adjusted basisthere has been little advance in dealers'stocks since the beginning of the fourthquarter. End-of-November inventories,were more than }{ million below theyear-ago total. In view of the strongsales pace it now appears that the ex-pected fourth quarter buildup in dealers'automobile stocks will be delayed untilthe early part of next year, a factorwhich is favorable for near-term pro-duction prospects.

Installment credit advance

The most recent data on consumerinstallment credit are also indicative ofthe freer purchasing of durables byconsumers and their willingness to gointo debt on this account. Consumerinstallment credit at the end of Octoberrose by almost $200 million over themonth, after seasonal adjustment, thelargest advance of the year. ThroughSeptember there had been no evidencein 1961 of a rise in credit outstanding,as consumers placed somewhat greateremphasis on debt repayment than onnew debt acquisitions. The improve-ment in durable goods sales in thesecond quarter had brought about aleveling out in installment credit fol-lowing the rather sharp drop in thefirst quarter; but the summer months

1Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS December 1961

witnessed a slightly downward move-ment as consumers slowed their pur-chases of durables.

Table 1.Changes in Consumer InstallmentCredit Outstanding, Seasonally Adjusted,Monthly Average l

[Millions of dollars]

I9601st quarter..2d quarter.,.3d quarter...4th quarter.^

1st quarter. _2d quarter...3d quarter. ..October

Total

409429179126

-88-4

-41184

Auto-mobilepaper

1831873832

-129-78

-10869

Othercon-

sumergoodspaper

981041034

77

-122

Repairand

mod-erniza-

tionloans

233320-1

-1055

-12

Per-sonalloans

10510511161

446263

105

1 Seasonally adjusted changes in outstanding credit de-

rived by subtracting credit repaid from credit extended.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Prominent in the October credit de-velopments was the reversal in thedownward trend of automobile paper,which rose by $70 million, after showingreductions for 10 consecutive months.(See table 1.) With the sharp increasein automobile buying, an accelerationof the credit increase may be expected.

There was also a noticeable rise inother consumer goods paper, and anincrease in personal loans, which hadbeen moving generally upward sincethe early part of the year.

Purchasing power rising

Personal income advanced sharplyagain in November to a seasonally ad-justed annual rate of $429 billion, $4billion more than October. Since theFebruary trough the rise has been morethan $25 billion.

The gains for the month were con-centrated in manufacturing payrolls,notably transportation equipment andin government, the latter reflectingprimarily higher Federal military, andState and local payrolls. On balancethere was little change in private pay-rolls other than manufacturing. Farmincome was up over the month andthere were small rises in dividends andnonfarm proprietors' income.

The $2.4 billion increase in labor in-come from October to November re-flected gains in nonfarm employment,

hours and rates of pay. The advancein manufacturing employment was thebest since June and centered in durablegoods, mainly because of rising auto-mobile production schedules. An im-portant factor in the rise in manufac-turing payrolls was the increase inweekly hoursfrom 40.2 to 40.6, sea-sonally adjusted. While there was asharp gain in hours in the transpor-tation equipment industry smaller ad-vances were prevalent among a majorityof manufacturing groups. The Novem-ber improvement brought manufactur-ing hours of work to the highest pointsince mid-1959.

Though manufacturing employmentis now showing its first gain over year-ago levels, it is not yet back to thepeak reached in the spring of 1960.Durable goods employment is still some4 percent below, with decreases mostpronounced in primary metals, trans-portation equipment and machinery.

Unemployment situation improves

After remaining in the neighborhoodof almost 7 percent since last December,the seasonally adjusted unemploymentrate showed a distinct improvement inNovember, falling to approximately 6percent. A lag of unemploymentbehind recoveries in activity has oc-curred in each of the previous postwarupturns. This year, there has been asomewhat longer lapse of time betweenthe cyclical low point in activity andthe initial marked decline in the un-employment rate. The longest previ-ous interval was the 6 months followingthe upturn in 1958.

Trend of Investment

Total gross private domestic invest-ment has shown a sharp recovery, afterfalling from an annual rate of $80billion in the first quarter of 1960 to$60 billion in the first quarter of 1961.The earlier high was marked by theheavy rebuilding of inventories thatfollowed the end of the 1959 steel strike.

The aggregate is now back to a ratein excess of $75 billion, with the inven-tory turnaround a major factor in theincrease. Up to this point in thecurrent expansion, fixed investment,which includes plant and equipment

expenditures and residential construe"tion, has recorded a moderate improve-ment, from a seasonally adjusted annualrate of $64 billion to more than $70billion in the closing months of the year.Residential construction has been inthe forefront of this advance. Itreached a low in the opening quarter of1961, but by the fourth quarter wasrunning at a seasonally adjusted annualrate that was $4 billion or 20 percenthigher. The smaller share of thisyear's rise accounted for by business

INVESTMENT OUTLAYS Are Recovering FromEarly 1961 Low

Billion -$100

80

60

40

GROSS PRIVATEDOMESTIC INVESTMENT

I . , I ,

PLANT OUTLAYS Turn Around in Second HalfIncrease Scheduled for Early 196260

40

20

TOTAL PLANT AND EQUIPMENTEXPENDITURES

O Anticipatedi I t l i 1 l l I

HOMEBUILDING Has Been Moving Up SinceEarly This Year40

20

NONFARM RESIDENTIALCONSTRUCTION

I I

INVENTORY Accumulation Extends IntoFourth Quarter20

-20

CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING AND TRADEINVENTORIES

Book Value, end of Quarter

l i i 1 l I i I I

1959 1960 1961* 1962Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates

Data: SEC, Census, & QBE

*Fourth Quarter, Preliminary Estimate

U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 61-12-2Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

December 1961 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

plant and equipment expenditures re-flects the upturn in such outlays aroundmidyear and the small advances sincethen.

Fixed investment low relative to GNP

Fixed investment in 1961 appearsrelatively lower than in any otherpostwar year, averaging less than 13percent of GNP on a current dollarbasis. In the years 1958-60, this ratioranged from 13 to 14 percent, as againstan average of more than 14 percent forthe earlier postwar years, when profitswere relatively higher and demand andother influences generally more favor-able.

Most of the diminishing relativeimportance is attributable to plant andequipment investment, where excesscapacity has been comparatively com-mon since the 1958 downturn and hasconsequently dampened the two re-coveries in investment since then.Housing is now relatively more impor-tant than it was in the early postwarperiod but it is currently well belowits relative importance in 1955 and1959, which were both years of highresidential construction activity.

Near term prospects

Very near term prospects for in-vestment are favorable in view of theimprovement in profits, general mone-tary ease, and rising incomes anddemand. It is of interest, however,that during postwar expansions of totaloutput, periods of increasing real in-vestment, including inventories, havebeen comparatively brief. Since 1949the range has been from four to sixquarters, or considerably less than thelength of expansion periods.

The reasons for this lack of sustainedadvance in investment during the re-covery and expansion are related inpart to the character of inventoryinvestment, which may swing from onedirection to another rather quickly,and to the competing demands forfunds that develop during the expan-sion. Thus increases in inventory in-vestment tend to be largestasidefrom strike periodsaround the bottomturning points in total business activity,when inventory liquidation is slowing

down or giving way to inventoryincrease. While inventories continueto rise, such investment tends toincrease less rapidly and then becomesnegative as inventories are reduced.

Plant and equipment expenditureshave usually lagged the upturn inactivity, while housing has shown amore autonomous character in postwar

cycles, particularly since it has re-ceived special treatment by the Gov-ernment. However, housing has showna sensitivity to the tightening of moneythat has developed in the middle ofpast expansions, as rising demandsfor new plant and equipment and in-ventories have put pressure on thesupply of funds.

Expansion in Plant and Equipment To Continue Into 1962

BUSINESS has programed increasingexpenditures for new plant and equip-ment in the current quarter and in theopening 3 months of 1962, after seasonaladjustment. Plans reported by busi-nessmen in the latest quarterly survey,conducted jointly by the Departmentof Commerce and the Securities andExchange Commission, anticipate cap-ital outlays at an annual rate of almost$36 billion after seasonal adjustmentduring the final 3 months of 1961, a3% percent rise from the actual rate of$34.7 billion in the third quarter. Thefirst quarter 1962 projection is at aseasonally adjusted annual rate of$36% billion, back to the spring 1960cyclical high, and 6 percent aboveestimated outlays for 1961 as a whole.

Prompt turnaround

The survey data place the cyclicallow in business fixed investment at arate of $33K billion in the secondquarter of 1961; the low occurred justone quarter after the trough in grossnational product. As can be seen inthe chart, this represents an unusuallyfast response of capital outlays to anupturn in business activity. The in-vestment low in nondurable goodsmanufacturing coincided with the 1961GNP trough, while investment by themore volatile industriesdurable goodsmanufacturing and the railroadsshowed typically longer-than-averagelags.

The expected relative increase overthe first four quarters following the1961 GNP trough exceeds that in the1949-50 and 1958-59 recoveries, a

result attributable primarily to themore prompt turnaround. However,in the 1954-55 period the plant andequipment expansion was relativelylarger four quarters after the GNPtrough was reached than is indicatedin this cycle.

The realization of first quarter 1962expectations would mean a 8 percentincrease from the first quarter of 1961,the GNP trough. This is a largerrelative increase than occurred in thefirst four quarters of recovery in 1949-50 and 1958-59, mainly because of themore prompt turnaround in investment,though it is relatively less than in1954-55.

PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES:CYCLICAL COMPARISONS Upturn Has Been More Prompt in the

Current Cycle Programed Investment Back to 1960 High

Index*

120

100

80

OAnticipated

I I I J I J_- 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4

Quarters from GNP Trough

*For each cycle investment in quarter of GNP troughequals 700.

Data: SEC & QBE

U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 61-12-5Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS December 1961

The rise now underway followed amild downturn from a peak which hadfailed to reach the previous (1957) high.Outlays in the 1959-60 expansion hadrepresented a declining percentage ofgross national product. Expendituresfor new plant and equipment since 1958

Table 2.Changes in Capital Outlays inRecent Contraction and First 9 Months ofRecovery 1

All businessManufacturingMining __Railroads . _ _.. _Transportation, other than

railroadPublic utilitiesCommercial and other

Percentage change inplant and equipmentexpenditures

1960 secondquarter to1961 second

quarter

-8-8-6

-37

-17-4-5

1961 secondquarter to1962 firstquarter 2

9813

0I

17

1. In the 1960-61 cycle, the high occurred in the secondquarter of 1960, seasonally adjusted, and the low in the secondquarter of 1961.

2. Anticipated.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business

Economics and Securities and Exchange Commission.

have been substantially lower thanwould have been the case had historicalrelationships with gross national prod-uct, or with profits and cash flowi.e.,retained earnings plus depreciationcontinued to prevail. Thus, there hasbeen a noteworthy shift.

Key factors retarding investment inrecent years have been the relativelylow utilization of capacity, which hadbeen greatly enlarged during the 1955-57 investment boom and built up moreslowly since 1957, and reduced profitmargins. Rising activity this year hasgenerally resulted in a more intensiveuse of existing capacity, although pro-ductive facilities in most areas are stillmore than adequate to meet currentdemands. On the other hand, theuptrend in corporate profits, sales andnew orders, as well as rising costs, areprime considerations in businessmen'sappraisal of near-term plant and equip-ment programs. Furthermore, therestill exists substantial needs for modern-ization to take advantage of continuedtechnological progress.

Anticipations for 1961 little changedPrograms outlined in the latest

quarterly survey indicate virtually nochange in businessmen's aggregate in-vestment expectations from earlier 1961surveys. As compared with resultsreported 3 months ago, actual expendi-tures in the third quarter and expectedoutlays in the final 3 months of 1961are about unchanged in aggregate.Manufacturing companies have slightlylowered, and nonmanufacturing firmsraised, their scheduled capital outlays.

The full year 1961 totalwith onlythe final 3 months based on anticipatedfiguresis $34% billion or 3 percentbelow 1960, the same as projected bybusiness last March, though the com-ponent parts differ. Declines, bothfrom last year and from the 1957 high,centered in durable goods manufactur-ing and railroads. These reductionshave occurred as durable goods pro-duction has accounted for a decliningproportion of final output, and as therailroads have experienced further dif-ficulties in improving their profits posi-tion. In nondurable goods manufac-turing, and in communications, tradeand service 1961 capital outlays willprobably top the 1960 totals by smallmargins.

Manufacturing investmentSpending b}7 manufacturers in the

first quarter of 1962 is placed at theannual rate of $14% billion, seasonallyadjusted. Realization of these pro-grams would represent a 6 percent in-crease over this year's average and 8percent over the second quarter low.Outlays would be just under the 1960cyclical higha result attributable tothe lower rate of investment by thedurable goods group as nondurablegoods companies' expenditures arescheduled well above 1960 rates. Theuptrend in manufacturing is broadlybased, but a few key durable goodsindustries have as yet shown only littleresponse to the business recovery.

Capital spending by heavy goodsproducers declined through the thirdquarter of this year, thus reaching acyclical low later than for most otherindustry groups. Unfilled order-deliveryratios, which are historically low in

many of these industries, point to theabsence of strong pressures for addi-tional capacity from this source. Exist-ing capacity, however, includes largeamounts of older, high-cost equipmentin terms of current production. Theneed to improve market position as wellas the recent upturn in output and neworders has resulted in the programingof higher outlays for plant and equip-ment in the final quarter of this yearand in the opening months of 1962.The seasonally adjusted annual rateprojected for the first quarter of 1962is up one-tenth from this year's low.

Plant and equipment spending byindividual durable goods industries inrecent years are shown in the chart.All of the component industries showactual investment in the 1960-61 periodand projected outlays in early 1962below 1957 rates with the exception ofelectrical machinery. During the sameperiod sales of durable goods manu-facturers expanded substantially, andthe difference in trends largely reflectsthe bunching of capital goods buyingin the 1955-57 period.

One of the sharpest percentageadvances projected for the currentPLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES

IN EARLY 1962Scheduled 6 Percent Higher Than 1961 Rate

Billion Dollars, SeasonallyAdjusted, at Annual Rates0 10 20 30 40 50

TOTAL

Manufacturing

Commercial &Miscellaneous

PublicUtilities

NonraiiTransportation

Railroads

1962 '1st Qfr.

196?

6% Increase

10% Increase

- 2% Decrease

-2% Decrease

4% Increase

6% /ncre-ose

Data: SEC & QBEU.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 61-T2-6



recovery is in primary metals (seechart). This industry had shown arelatively weak rebound during the1959-60 expansion, but currently itis concentrating on expanding invest-ment designed to increase efficiency,and on the development of new productsto improve its competitive positionwith other suppliers of basic materials.Still, planned capital expenditures forthe opening quarter of 1962 will bebelow the corresponding period of 1961.

The programed pickup by nonelec-trical machinery manufacturers is alsosubstantial. Expenditures by thiscapital-goods supplying industry areexpected to approach $!} billion at aseasonally adjusted annual rate in thefirst quarter of 1962, exceeding the 1960high quarter. In contrast, actual andplanned expenditures for fixed assets byelectrical machinery producers haveheld relatively steady since the firstquarter of 1961at a rate just underthe all-time high in 1960.

Motor vehicle producers expect capi-tal outlays in this quarter and in early1962 to be up moderately from thethird quarter, after seasonal allowances.Projected annual rates, however, willbe well under those of 1960 and lessthan one-half the record 1956 total.Among durable goods industries pri-marily supplying the construction in-dustrylumber, fabricated metal prod-ucts, and stone, clay and glassthelow in investment occurred early in1961 and capital expenditures show asteady recovery.

Investment by nondurable goodsproducers is expected to reach $7.8billion, at a seasonally adjusted annualrate, early next year. This is within5 percent of the 1957 high and upalmost one-tenth from the first quarterlow in 1961.

Higher capital outlays for the fourthand first quarters over those of the thirdquarter of 1961 were reported by allmajor industries within the nondurablegoods group, with the exception of thepetroleum and rubber industries whereexpenditures are held close to thirdquarter rates. Rubber manufacturers'project outlays at about record rates.Investment by petroleum producerscurrently is about one-fifth under thatin 1956-57 when great efforts to enlarge

petroleum output were stimulated bythe Suez crisis.

Although current capacity is inexcess for some types of chemicals,the industry as a whole appears to beresuming the uptrend in investmentwhich began in early 1959 and wasinterrupted by a drop only in the firstquarter of this year. At an annualrate of nearly $1% billion, programsin the first quarter of 1962 would behigher than in any period, except thethird and fourth quarters of 1957.Producers of paper products anticipatea substantial rise from the third quarter1961 low to the first quarter of 1962.

The increase will not, however, bringseasonally adjusted investment backto the 1960 high quarter.

Textile manufacturers have enlargedcapital budgets, with plans for newfacilities in excess of $} billion in theopening quarter of next yearaboutthe same rate as at the height of the1960 expansion. Capital outlays bythis industry had not exceeded the$% billion rate between 1951 and 1960.Moderate increases planned by thefood-beverage group will raise spendingto a rate of about $1 billion. Invest-ment in excess of $1 billion was recordedby the industry only in the early post-

PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURESMost Major IndustriesShow Recovery but Planned Increases Are as Yet Moderate

Biliion $4

PRIMARY METALS

MOTOR VEHICLES

MACHINERY (Exc. Electrical)

[Mi

Biliion $

PETROLEUM

I11

xx/ --0-0-

-

1 1 , , , 1 , , , 1 , , ,

CHEMICALS

-

I1

^ v^ o-o

-

I I , , , ] . , , ! . , .

PAPER

- M

ill 1 , , , 1 , , , 1 , , ,

4

3

2

}

0

3

2

}

0

2

1

0

2

1

0

ELECTRICAL

1957 1960Year

MACHINERY

0 o

, 1 , , i 1 , , ,1961 1962

FOOD& BEVERAGES

1957 1960Year

Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, at Annual Rates

1961

Anticipated

U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

1962

Data: SEC & OBE

61-12-7Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

6 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS December 1961war period when the developments infrozen foods required additional fa-cilities.

Record in nonmanufacturingexpected

Current plans by firms engaged innonmanufacturing activities call for in-vestment at a record seasonally ad-justed annual rate of $22 billion in thefirst quarter of 1962. Sectors whichhave been strongest in the businessinvestment picture in recent yearscontinue to pace the field and to beprimarily responsible for the expectedhigh expenditures, i.e., communicationsand commercial firms.

While not bulking large in the total,outlays by the railroads have been inthe limelight because of their financialplight and of the importance of therails to the economy. Investment bythe railroads has been in a decliningtrend through 1961. Total outlays forthe year 1961 will be somewhat higherthan previously estimated, and pro-grams for the first quarter of 1962

indicate a stepped-up rate from 1961.Even so, the expected rate as 1962starts will be less than half that of 1957.

In transportation other than rails,trucking firms have also revised up-wards estimates of total outlays for1961 and budgeted a rise in capitalspending for the first quarter of nextyear. Airlines, on the other hand, willnot equal earlier 1961 anticipations,and a rather sharp drop in investmentis expected in the first quarter, to a rateabout two-thirds the record in late1959 when payments for the acquisitionof jet planes were at their peak. Jetcarrying capacity for most of the majorairlines now appears ample in theshort-run with the consequent lesseningof pressures for additional planes.Utility programs lower

Utility companies expect to reduceoutlays in the first quarter of 1962 fromthe seasonally adjusted rates in the lasttwo quarters of this year. For thegroup as a whole, plant and equipmentexpenditures during the final 3 monthsof this year will be up 6 percent from

the first quarter low; spending in theopening quarter of next year wouldstill be 3 percent over the low. Totalpurchases for the year 1961, at $5.6billion, are little changed from 1960,and about one-tenth under last March'sprojection for this year.

The first quarter 1962 dipas wellas most of the year's setback in pro-gramscentered in gas utility com-panies. Here there have been sub-stantial postponements in plans asprospective marketing areas are beingrestudied. Electric power companies'outlays for new facilities have shownminor fluctuations during the quartersof 1961. First quarter schedules arejust above those rates for the closingquarter of this year, after seasonalallowances, but are not quite equal tothe 1960 high.Peak commercial outlays

Investment by commercial firms andcommunication companies is expectedto be $13 billion, on a seasonally ad-justed annual basis, in the first quarterof 1962. This volumeif achieved

Table 3.Expenditures on New Plant and Equipment by U.S. Business J, 1959-62[Billions of dollars]

Manufacturing industries

Durable goods industriesPrimary iron and steelPrimary nonferrous inetaL _ _ ._ _ . _ _ _ __ _Electrical machinery and equipment _ _ _Machinery, except electricalMotor vehicles and parts _ . _ __ . . ._ _. . __ _Transportation equipment, excluding motor yehi^I '-sStone, clay, find glassOther durable goods 3 ._ __ _ _ . . - - . .

Food a n d beverage _ _ _ - _ - _ _ _ _ _Textile - - -PaperChemicalPetroleum and coalRubberOther nondurable goods *

Mining

Railroad

Transportation, other than rail

Public utilities

Communication _ __

Commercial and other 5

Total ._ _ - - _ - _ -

Annual

1959

12.07

5.771.04.31.52.91.04.39. 53

1.44

6 9.S3.41. 03

1 232 49

.19

.51

.99

92

2.02

5.67

2.67

8 21

32.51

1960

14. 48

7.18l .GO.31.68

1.10.89.42. 62

7 30po

. 53

. 75.1.602. 64.23. 64

.99

1. 03

1.94

5.68

3.13

8.44

35.68

1961 2

13.72

6.271.15.26.70

1.0974

!39. 50

1.44

7 45. 97. 51. 68

1.622.79.22. 67

.99

.67

1. 84

5.56

t 11.71

34. 50

Unadjusted

1961

Jan.-Mar.

3.00

1.41.28.07. 15

\\\.09. 11.30

1 59.23

. 16

.33

. 56

.05

. 14

. 21

.17

.41

1.09

! "[ 1.947.57

Apr.-June

3. 46

1.5828

.07

. 17

.28

.20

. 10

. 12

. 36

1.88

. 12

.174?

'.70.05.17

.26

.18

.48

1.39

.81

2.04

8.61

July-Sept.

3. 3 1

1.50.26. 06. 17

.' 19

.0912

. 36

1.84. 24. 12. 16.40. 70.06.16

.25

.16

.47

1.50

.78

2.16

8,65

Oct.-Dec.2

1.79

.'0621

'.31.20.11.14.42

2.13

'. To. 18.46.84.06.20

.27

.16

. 49

1.59

1 3.24

9.67

1962

Jan.-Mar.2

3.17

1.45.26.05. 14

27! i f i.09. 12.35

1.7294

1. 05.20

.22

.17

.40

1.10

3.04

8.11

Seasonally adjusted at annual

1961

Jan.- | Apr.-Mar. { June

13.75

6.501.35.30.70

1.1,5.70.40

7.25.95.50.75

E

.95

.70

1.75

5.35

11.30

33.85

13. 50

6 201 05

2570

1 108040

7. 30.90.45.70

1 . 652. 75

1.00

.70

1.80

5.50

11.05

33. 50

July-Sept.

13.65

6.101.10

^ 7 01.05.70.35

1.00.50.65

1 . 652.85

1.00

.65

1.90

5.65

11.85

34,70

Oct.-Dec.2

14. 00

6.351.10.25.70

1.10

.40

7.6.51.00. 55.65

1. 652. 85

rates

1962

Jan.-Mar.2

14. 55

6. 701.30

'. 701. 20

. 75

. 40

7.851 . 00. W. 70

1.702. HO

1.00

.60

1.90

5.70

12.65

35.90

1.00

.70

1.80

5.50

12. M

36.50

1. Data exclude expenditures of agricultural business and outlays charged to current ac-count.

2. Estimates for the year 1961 are based on actual capital expenditures for the first threequarters and anticipated capital expenditures for the final quarter of the year. These datawere reported by business in late October and November 1961. The anticipated data havebeen adjusted when necessary for systematic tendencies.

3. Includes fabricated metal, lumber, furniture, instrument, ordnance, and miscellaneousIndustries.

4. Includes apparel, tobacco, leather, and printing and publishing.5. Includes trade, service, finance, and construction. The anticipated expenditures and

the seasonally adjusted data also include communications.Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. Data for earlier years were published

in the June 1956, March 1958, and March 1960 Survey of Current Business.Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and Securities

and Exchange Commission.Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


would be 10 percent higher than theenlarged investment of 1961 and willexceed the previous peak.

Trade firms are primarily responsiblefor the growing investment of the group.Persistant growth of suburban shoppingareas combined with downtown reno-vation plans have resulted in makingthis area currently one of the mostdynamic sources of demand for capital

goods. Expenditure estimates for 1961have been pushed steadily upward dur-ing the year. First quarter 1962 plansmark a substantial further advance.

Investment by communications com-panies continue as a major investmentinfluence, posting another record highin 1961. Expenditures tended upwardthroughout 1961 and are expected torise in the opening months of next year.

Manufacturers Expect Higher Sales and Inventories in Early 1962LANUFACTUEEES have experi-

enced substantial advances in salesfrom last winter's lows and now lookforward to further gains in the near-term, according to the latest quarterlysurvey of manufacturers' anticipationsconducted in November. Further in-ventory accumulation is also expected,although the moderateness of the pro-jected rise points to a continuation ofthe rather conservative inventory in-vestment policy that has been so evidentin recent years. The survey finds thatmanufacturers viewed their inventorycondition at the start of the currentquarter as considerably more favorablethan in earlier periods of 1961.

Sales in early 1962 are expected tobe about 4 percent higher than theactual value of shipments during thethird quarter of this year on a season-ally adjusted basis. The anticipatedinventory expansion during the 6months period from September 30,1961, to March 31, 1962, would approx-imate 3 percent, or SI.8 billion, season-ally adjusted. Manufacturers7 stockswere virtually unchanged in the secondquarter of 1961 and rose $1 billion inthe third quarter.

Projections for the fourth quarter ofthis year arc fairly well in line withavailable data on sales and inventorychanges for October and early indica-tions for November. Manufacturers intheir first quarter projections look for-ward to a somewhat larger inventoryaccumulation, and a smaller gain insales, than anticipated in the final 3months of this year.

Record sales ahead

If factory shipments advance inaccordance with producers expecta-tions, the fourth and first quartertotals would represent successive newhighs. Expected shipments in the firstquarter 1962 total $97.3 billion, season-ally adjusted, 4 percent higher than

the cyclical peak reached in the firstquarter of 1960. Practically all of theadvance would represent larger volumeas there has been little change in overallfactory prices over the period.

The recovery in manufacturers' ship-ments since the cyclical low early thisyear has been faster in the volatiledurable goods industries than in non-durables, as is typical in early stagesof recoveries. Anticipations from thepresent survey indicate that this differ-ential rate of advance will continueinto early 1962.

Paced by transportation equipment,steel and fabricated metals producers,total heavy goods deliveries are ex-pected to move up 3 percent from thethird to the fourth quarter, and thenincrease another 2 percent in the open-ing 3 months of 1962; sales had risen3 percent in the third quarter of this3^ear. Deliveries at the expected vol-ume in the first quarter would be more

MANUFACTURERS EXPECT HIGHER SALES AND INVENTORIESInventories Have Risen Less Than SalesRealization of Anticipations Would Further Reduce Stock-Sales Ratios

Billic40

30

20

10

Rati

2.5

2.0

1.5

3n $ (ratio scale) Billion $DURABLE GOODS PRODUCERS

Inventories

Sales

1, ,.! I ' I 1 ! 1 I 1 L I. 1 .1 L . 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1

0

NONDURABLE GOODS PRODUCERS

InventoriesX

S0/05

-

i ! 1 .. 8 i ! 1 ! > I 1 1 ! 1 ( ! i I 1 1 L

40

30

20

10

Ratio

Inventory Sales Ratio

. , . 1 , , , 1 , , , 1 , , , 1 . , , 1 , , .1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

_

Inventory Sa/es Ratio

/

, . , 1 , , . I , , . 1 , , , ! , , , 1 , , ,1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962

2.5

2.0

1.5

Quarterly , Seasonally Adjusted0 AnticipatedNOTE: Inventories are book values ; sales, Monthly average for quarter

U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 61-12-8Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Dei-ember 1901

than one-sixth higher than the cyclicallow a year earliera somewhat smallerincrease than occurred in the previouspostwar recovery periods.

Soft-goods shipments are expectedto expand about 1 percent, seasonallyadjusted, in each of the current andnext quarters, according to the surveyresults; this compares with an almost2 percent rise in the third quarter ofthis year. Larger-than-average salesincreases from third quarter rates areprojected by chemicals, oil, rubber andpaper companies. As in the case ofdurables, the expected advances wouldraise first quarter deliveries well overprevious highs. The rate of recoveryfor sales of these industries has beenji l i t t le slower than in 1958-59 butfaster than in 1954-55.

Accumulation larger in durables

Two-thirds of the anticipated inven-tory increases in the fourth and firstquarters are accounted for by durablegoods manufacturing companies. Forthis group, inventory book values areexpected to rise $600 million during the

current quarter, after allowance for sea-sonal influences. This rate of accumu-lation would be somewhat smaller thanthe actual increment in the third quar-ter. The expected rise of an additional$600 million in the first quarter wouldbring the erid-of-March book value forthe heavy goods group to $32} billion,back to the previous high in June 1960.

Expected additions to inventories bysoft-goods manufacturing companies inthe fourth quarter would be $300 mil-liona larger rise than occurred duringthe third quarter. Book values of theseproducers is anticipated to increase a n -other $}s billion in the first 3 months of1962. These additions would continuethe long uptrend which began in late1958. During the 1960-61 downturnthere was no net liquidation of stocksby the soft goods group but book val-ues held on a plateau, from mid-1960through early 1961.

The slightly larger advances expectedin sales than inventories impty somefalling off in inventory-sales ratios dur-ing the last quarter of this year andthe first quarter of next. By early1962 stocks-sales ratios will be about

Table 4.Manufacturers'* Inventories andSalesj Actual and Anticipated

[Billions of dollars]

CHANGES IN MANUFACTURERS' SALES AND INVENTORIESActual Compared With Businessmen's AnticipationsSurveys Thus Far Have Fairly Well Predicted Short-Term Movements

Billion $

1

0

-1

2

1

n

-1

pr

- ':[} ^i Anticipated**.Xm

_

- p7F$$

11 If

H TTT TV

1959

INVENTORIES

F~S 1 Actual

M nil S"'"

SALES

_

I Wn. ~ ill H^ 1 1 "

i n n i i s r i n i n T s z : !I960 1961 1962

Unadjusted1901 I

IIIII.. -IV i

1902 I *Seasonally ad-justed

IQ^I iIIHIIV *

19021 i

Inventories, endof quarter

_^

'

53 853. 053. S55.3

50. 8

5 353. 454.455. 3

50. 3

1

30 S30. 530. 031.5

32 8

30 330. 231. 131.7

32. 3

%

"

Sales, tota forquarter

'jr.

5

23 0 1 86 4 39 723.1 93.2 4 4 . 923. 123.9

24 0

93 o23.223. 323. 0

92.0 | 43.090. 0

90. 1

S7 2

40.7

40. 7

40 991.8 43.494. 090. 0

24. 0 97. 3

44.840. 3

47. 2

't '

o X

40 048. 349.049. 8

49. 5

47 148. 449. 149.7

50. I

1. Anticipations reported by manufacturers in Octo 1 >er andearly November. Inventories have been corrected for syste-matic tendencies in anticipatory data. Anticipated inven-tories as reported before adjustment for either seasonal varia-tions or for systematic tendencies at the end of December are.(in billions of dollars): total $53.8, durables $30.0, nondur-ables $23.2. The comparable anticipations for March 31,1902are $54.1, $31.0, and $23.1, respectively.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of BusinessEconomics.

1.7, according to the surve\T, or a littleunder the rate which has existed sincemid-1961. It would be well under the1.8 in the first quarter of 1961 at thecyclical low of activity. For the dur-able goods industries the anticipationdata imply a decline in the ratio to2.0well below the 2.2 figure obtaineda year earlier. (See chart.) Soft goodsproducers have held inventories closerto sales and have shown less fluctua-tion in stock-sales ratios than was thecase in durables. The expected ratio

Table 5.Manufacturers' Evaluation of theCondition of Their Inventories as of:1

[Percent distribution]

Total manufacturingHigh\bout rightLow

Durable goodsHigh.About rightL o w . . .

Nondurable goodsHighAbout rightLow -

:o

sJc3

*5

10031672

1003960

1

10090

3

June

30

1003563?

1004957

1

100?6713

1960

ro

o*GO

10099701

10036631

100?078

CO

1

1009x711

1003967

1

100??77

1

CO

;-'

Dec-ember 1061 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 9

in the first quarter of next year fornondurables would be a little underthe 1.5 figure for the opening 3 monthsof this year.

Inventory position favorable

As a regular part of the survey manu-facturers were asked to indicate whetherthey considered their inventory positionas of September as "high", "aboutright", or "low" in light of their recenttrends in sales and unfilled orders.Producers holding 86 percent of totalfactory inventories felt that stocks wereabout in line. Companies accountingfor 12 percent of total stocks felt thatinventories were "high" and 2 percentof stocks were considered to be "low".These results represent a substantialdrop in the proportion of "high"inventories from the previous survey,when about 18 percent of total stockson June 30, 1961, were so classified.(See table 5.)

The proportion of stocks considered"high" declined about equally amongthe durable and nondurable goodscompanies. In both areas the "high77proportion was substantially smaller

than in any other period during the 4years over which this survey has beenmade. Both groups also reported anincrease in the proportion of stockswhich were considered "low" relative torecent sales and orders positions.

In evaluating the projections in thisreport, it should be noted that thesesurveys have thus far fairly well pre-dicted the direction and size of salesand inventory movements after allow-ance for systematic tendencies in theanticipatory figures. (See chart.)They are still exploratory in nature,however, and there are special factorsaffecting sales and inventory fluctu-ations not completely subject to man-agements7 control. Appraisal of in-ventory movements in the next fewquarters may be affected not only bythe requirements of expanding outputbut also by such temporary factors asthe uncertainties arising from thecoming wage negotiations in steel.The survey does not cover a large partof inventoriesthose in the hands ofnonmanufacturing firms which makeup 45 percent of the total. In thissegment, as well, there are specialfactors such as the relatively low stocksof new cars in retail dealers' hands.

Advance in Housing Construction

J[ HE year 1961 has been one of risingactivity in housing. On the basis of10 months7 data, private nonfarm startsare 1.3 million on an annual basis,somewhat above the 1960 total withthe monthly pattern tracing a reversemove from that recorded in the earlieryear. Last winter, starts reached alow point of around 1 million at aseasonally adjusted annual rate, andsince then they have moved irregularlyhigher, to a 1.4 million anmal rate inOctober.

The current upturn in housing re-sembles the earlier turns in its broadsetting, but the recent rise has featureda greater proportion of conventionally-financed housing and more multiple

61948661 2

units. The recent pattern of housinghas differed from that in the earlierpostwar years when backlog demandswere insistent. So far, the rise hasbeen somewhat less vigorous, reflectingthe more adequate housing supplyafter the extension of the postwar highrate of home construction for 15 years.An important difference from 1958 inthe cyclical component of housing de-mand is that the most recent businessrecession came more quickly after ashorter and incomplete business re-covery in 1959-60. As a consequence,it did not follow a protracted period oflow housing starts as was the case in1958.

Furthermore, the housing legislation

of 1961 was somewhat later (June 30)relative to the recession than in 1958(April 1), and did not contain the largesum of special assistance FNMA "par"funds wiiich brought a rush of applica-tions for commitments in 1958.

The further rise in the proportion ofconventionally-financed housing standsout in 1961 developments. This trendhad been noticeable in the 1958 upturn.FHA-VA application or appraisal re-quests for new housing had shown largerises in the 1949 and 1954 upturns anda substantial expansion in 1958. Inthe recent period, such applicationswere rather stable on a seasonallyadjusted basis in the latter half of1960 and the first half of this yearbefore showing an upturn in the thirdquarterthough this has been con-siderably less than in earlier recoveries.Starts under these programs remainedbelow the relatively low rates of a yearearlier until October, averaging onlyabout one-fourth of total starts.

Conventional starts have been gen-erally above a year ago since the firstquarter, and, in recent months, havebeen about as high as in the correspond-ing months of the boom year 1959.

More apartment building

Another distinguishing feature of thisyear is the advance in apartmentbuilding. Earlier in the postwar periodapartments had played a relativelyminor role in residential construction.They had experienced a minor boomleta decade ago when unusually liberalfinancing under FHA's Section 608 wasespecially attractive. After the lapseof this section, apartment constructiondeclined to low rates for a number ofyears. The recent expansion has beenin two phases. Apartment house con-struction reached a high in early 1959,before declining for about a year.Then, moving against the generaldecline in single residence building in1960, apartment starts moved generallyupward and have shown a more markedexpansion this year to a new high.

Developers are taking advantage ofthe accelerated amortization provisionsof the 1954 Federal Revenue Act, some-times making use of syndicates forequity financing. Apartment buying isbeginning to receive some attentionDigitized for FRASER

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

10from real estate investment trustsorganized under the new real estatetrust law of 1960.

Apartment construction is, of course,primarily an urban activity, but morespecifically it is quite concentrated ina few of the big metropolitan areas.Six large metropolitan areas accountfor half of the total multi-family startsas compared with only about one-fifth of1-family starts. Nevertheless, the cur-rent rise is a rather broad one, withthe expansion outside the six largemetropolitan areas keeping pace withthe big-city gain.

A related development that is a sig-nificant influence affecting economicactivity as well as the urban landscapeis the new boom in hotel and motelconstruction. The "non-housekeeping"group has shown a further advance thisyear following the rising trend that, inthe last 5 years, has brought a doublingin the rate of such spending.

Single-family housing starts haverisen during the course of this year.As shown in the accompanying chartthey dropped very sharply late in 1960and remained Jow at the beginning ofthis year. The forward move in thespring and early summer was morethan seasonal, and the gains have beenheld. In recent months, such activity

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

has been about even with a year ago,but the total for the first 9 months isa little below the similar period of 1960.Thus, those supplying industries whichare principally related to 1-family hous-inge.g. lumber producershave expe-rienced a market for 1961 as a wholewhich is not much different in the aggre-gate from the rather disappointing 1960season.

Just as the year 1961 has been ratherunusual in terms of the character andthe trend of residential starts andactivity, so the financing has not fol-lowed the general pattern of otherrecover}' years. It was similar, how-ever, in that the flow of savings intolending institutions was high and therelatively low credit requirements ofbusiness (and consumers) left a goodsupply of funds available for residentialfinancing.

Maximum interest rates for FHAloans were reduced in two steps from5?4 to 5M during the first half of theyear. This was a period of easing inthe money market, and there was ageneral reduction in the effective yieldson FHA mortgages. An increase oc-curred in existing house financing withFHA-guarantee, but FHA-VA newhome loans closed declined to anunusually low rate in the first half ofthe .year, falling even below earlier

HOUSING CONTRIBUTES TO RECENT ECONOMIC ADVANCEThousand Units

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

PRIVATE NONFARMHOUSING STARTS

New Series ,

Ten - Month Average(At annual rate)

O October

I I i I I I I i

1946 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62Annual

U.S. Department of Commerce,, Office of Business Economics

1959 1960 1961 1962Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, at Annual Rates

Data: Census61-12-3

December 1961

periods of tight money. Some smallrise occurred in the autumn, but anyconsiderable rise must await a morepronounced upturn in FHA-VA starts.Among institutional lenders, FHA-VAnet acquisition of loans was limited

Table 6.Private Nonfarm Housing[Thousands, unadjusted at annual rate]

1959IIIIIIIV

1960IIIIIIIV

1961IIIIII

Conven-tionalstarts

9101,2501,170

890

7701,090

970760

7201, 100

FHA-VA

Starts Applica-tions

370540490360

280400380290

2503,50350

690920620460

480520460400

470SCO530

Loansclosed

390400390380

330300340320

270250280

Sources: Bureau of the Census, Federal Housing Admin-istration, and Veterans Administration.

chiefly to mutual savings banks, andto a lesser extent to savings and loanassociations. Life insurance companiesand commercial banks, which hadacquired considerable quantities of suchloans in other recovery years, havemade only limited net acquisitions in1961.

In the conventional loan market,commercial banks have had some netacquisition of home mortgages since thefirst quarter of the year and life in-surance companies have increased mort-gage lending during the year. Butthe largest increase in mortgage lendinghas been by the savings and loanassociations. With a large flow ofsavings, they have stepped up lendingaided by borrowing from the FederalHome Loan Banks. Their commit-ments for loans have reached highrates in recent months. Despite somelag in single-family starts as comparedwith a year earlier, savings and loanfinancing of new construction, whichis limited largely to houses, has showna significant increase this year.

The average interest rate of savingand loan mortgages showed a gradualdecrease during the first several monthsof the year with rates on new homesdeclining from a little above 6 percentDigitized for FRASER


Dec-ember 1961 SURVEY OF CUEKENT BUSINESS 11

to a little below in most areas ofthe country. In recent months someincreases in rates have been common.The average amount of mortgages in-creased appreciably in the first ninemonths of 1961. The rise this yearhas occurred at a time when the aver-age permit value for all new homes hasshown little change, and the averagemortgage value for new units guaran-teed or insured by FHA-VA has de-clined a bit.

At the end of July, the Federal HomeLoan Bank Board made a considerableliberalization in maximum saving andloan mortgages for houses costing over$20,000, and a larger proportion oflending may be made in the mortgagesrequiring lower downpayments. Anyconsiderable movement by the savingsand loan associations toward the maxi-mum loans permitted under the newregulations would reduce the demandfor junior mortgage financing. How-ever, the distribution of loans actuallymade by the saving associations upto the time of the recent liberalizationshows that most associations weremaking few loans in the most liberal

RESIDENTIAL ACTIVITYOne-Family Housing Starts Predominatebut Multi-Family Now at a High Rate

Thousand Units

140

120

TOO

80

60

40

20

ONE - FAMILY UNITS

1959 ;

1960 1959

I I I l i t

categories permitted under prior Regu-lations.

As construction has tended upwardduring the year, mortgage lending hasincreased in volume. An easy moneymarket has continued and the inflowof funds into savings institutions re-mains at a high rate, only moderatelybelow the unusually large inflow in thefirst half. With only a limited increasein business demands for credit, thefunds available for housing financing

have remained in good supply at onlyslightly advancing interest rates inrecent months. The supply of creditappears adequate to finance furthereconomic expansion; and the businesscredit requirements implied in thepresent projected capital programs donot appear to impinge upon residentialcredit sources. Moreover, the risingmulti-family sector is traditionally lesssensitive than 1-family housing tochanges in interest rates.

Pattern of Retirement and Other Transfer Income Flow

J F M A M J J A S O N OData: Census

U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 61-12-4

ITH the economic recovery wellunderway, and the advance to yearendboth sharp and substantial, it is anappropriate time to review the role ofthe transfer payments portion of thepersonal income flow in the most recentbusiness cycle. Transfer payments rep-resent individuals' money receipts forwhich no current services are rendered;benefits paid under major governmentsocial insurance programs bulk largein these payments. The highlights arepresented in the accompanying chartwhich reveals that such income is nowapproaching an annual rate of $35billion, or 8 percent of all personalincome.

About one-fourth of the rise in trans-fer incomes from the third quarter oflast 3^ear to the same period this yearreflects increased payments to the un-employed, but a larger part is due tothe continued long-run growth in re-tirement programs. The Unemploy-ment Compensation Program operatesas a countercyclical measure, while thegrowth of the latter operates as astabilizing influence on buying powerduring recessions. The chart illustratesthe large postwar increase in theseretirement programs, as well as thefluctuations in the flow of unemploy-ment benefits. In most recent months,retirement income has continued toadvance, offsetting since this spring thedecline in unemployment benefits whichhas accompanied the business recovery.

Within the past year, as reviewed inearlier issues of the SUJRVEY, theFederal Government took special actionto bolster the flow of income, not onlythrough stepped-up unemployment ben-efits but through an acceleration ofNational Service Life Insurance divi-dend payments by $150 million inMarch, and a special payment of $219million in July.

Cyclica I fluctua tionsDuring the contraction phase of each

of the postwar cyclical movements inbusiness, personal income from currentproduction has declined, but transferincome has risen sharply and has con-tinued up during the early stages ofrecovery. About the time that incomefrom current production has reattainedits prerecession highs, the advance hasbeen temporarily arrested but only forone or two quarters.

Though a definite pattern of transfermovements is apparent in the postwaryears, the relative offsets to the declinesin "earned" income from current pro-duction have not been uniform, asindicated in table 7. The cyclical peaksand troughs used in table 7 are thosemarked out by income earned fromcurrent production. Quarterly dataare used in order to eliminate some ofthe irregularities in the monthly figures.These as well as monthly figures indi-cate generally that transfers have offsetDigitized for FRASER


12

an increasing proportion of the declinein income from production.

Transfers in the 1960-61 contractionoffset about two-thirds of the $3-billionfall in "earned" income from the thirdquarter of 1960 to the first quarter of1961 (seasonally adjusted annual rate).The proportion offset would be aboutfive-sixths if the special NSLI dividendwere included. As a result of the step-up in transfers, total personal incomecontinued to advance into the fourthquarter of 1960 after which it was offonly slightly in the first quarter of1961. As the chart indicates, the cycli-cal decline was comparatively mild andshort-lived.

In the 1953-54 and 1957-58 cyclicaldownturns, earned income was reducedfrom peak to trough by $4 and $5 bil-lion, respectively, at seasonally adjustedannual rates, with transfer income off-setting about 50 percent of the decline.In the 1953-54 downturn, moreover,total personal income bottomed out onequarterly period earlier than the netmeasure as the result of rising transfers.

The 1948-49 downturn in income wasthe sharpest of the postwar declines.From the fourth quarter of 1948 to thethird quarter of 1949, personal incomefrom current production fell by $9 bil-lion, on an annual basis, while totalpersonal income fell roughly $7 billion;thus the increase in transfers offsetsomewhat more than one-fifth of thefall in incomes from current production.

Recession effect of unemploymentbenefits

Among transfer payments unemploy-ment benefits, consisting of separateState programs administered within abroad framework of Federal regulations,and the Federal railroad unemploymentinsurance program, stand out as a prin-cipal stabilizing device. In the 1948-^9contraction, unemployment insurancebenefits increased about $1 billion atannual rates, offsetting 13 percent ofthe drop in earned income. In the1953-54 and 1957-58 contractions thesebenefits rose by roughly $1% billion andin 1960-61 by about $1 billion, off-setting in each case about one-third ofthe much smaller reductions in income(see table 7).

Amendments to the various State

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

programs have been important factorsin the improved performance of unem-ployment compensation programs incontractions. Effective in 1956, theFederal unemployment tax law was ex-tended to include firms employing fouror more workers in at least 20 weeks of

PERSONAL INCOME

December 1901

the year; previously, the program hudbeen restricted to firms employing eightor more persons. Individual Stateshave also made improvements on theirown, increasing maximum allowablebenefits and their duration. It shouldbe noted that the two Federal tempo-

Transfer Income Approaching $35 Billion Annual RateEight Percentof Personal Income

Rise in Transfer Portion in Past Year ReflectsContinued Substantial Growth in Retirement Programs and Paymentsof Unemployment Benefits

BiHion

30

20

10

OTHER

VETERANS BENEFITS

CIVILIAN RETIREMENTBENEFITS

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITSI

1947 49 51 53 55 57 59Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, at Annual Rates

61

Billion $

Transfer Income Has Cushioned Declines in "Earned" Income Due to Production Cuts

CHANGES FROM PEAK TO TROUGH IN TOTAL INCOME FROM PRODUCTION

-104th Qtr. 1948 -3d Qtr. 1949

Qtr. 1960 -Qtr. 1961

CHANGES FROM TROUGH TO REATTAINMENT OF PREVIOUS PEAK

10

3d Qtr. 1949 -2d Qtr. 1950

Seasonally Adjusted, at Annual Rates

U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business EconomicsDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1 tec/ember 1961 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 13

niry unemployment benefit programsIn 1958 and 1961 had their impact afterthe trough in "currently earned" incomewas reached.

Large expansion in OASI

The chart also makes clear thedominance of the many programs notspecifically related to cyclical changesin business. Growth here has beenparticularly significant under the vari-ous government civilian retirementprograms mentioned earlier, consistingof Federal, State and local governmentretirement and pension benefits, rail-road workers retirement disbursementsand payments under the Federal oldage insurance system.

In 1961, civilian benefits amountingto $16 billion were paid out, as com-pared with the $1 billion of 1947; thisrise has centered largely in paymentsunder the OASI program, with benefitsin 1961 of $13 billion. The large ex-pansion reflects not only normal growth,

Table 7.Changes in Personal Income andTransfer Portion in Recessions and EarlyRecovery

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]A. FROM PEAK TO TROUGH IN PERSONAL

INCOME FROM PRODUCTION

Decline in personal income ex-cluding transfers

Increase in total transfers

Unemployment benefitsCivilian retirement benefitsVeterans' benefitsPublic assistance and other

Decline in total personal income.

4Q1948-3Q

1949

9 2

2.0

1 2.1. 1.6

-7.2

3Q1953-

2Q1954

4 2

2.0

1 4.500

2 2

3Q1957-

1Q1958

5 2

2.6

1 6.53

.3

2.6

3Q1960-

1Q1961

3 1

2.6

1 1.62

.8

.5

B. FROM TROUGH TO REATTAINMENT OF PEAKIN PERSONAL INCOME FROM PRODUCTION

Increase in personal income ex-cluding transfers

Increase in total transfers

Unemployment benefitsCivilian retirement benefitsVeterans' benefitsPublic assistance and other

Increase in total personal in-come . _ _ . _ _ _

3Q1949-2Q

1950

11.9

2.4

32

.42.1

14.3

2Q1954-

4Q1954

5 6

1.01

. 7

.3 . 1

6.6

1Q1958-3Q

1958

8 8

2.7

1 7.9

. 1.2

11.5

1Q1961-2Q

1961

7 7

.9Q

.81

.6

8.6

as the program moves toward maturity,but also the effects of legislative amend-ments providing increased benefits,extended coverage, and liberalized re-tirement requirements.

In 1961, total veterans7 benefitsamounted to about $4.5 billion. Whilethis was about $2 billion lower than thepeak year of 1947, there has beensome increase in recent years. As aconsequence of veterans' unemploy-ment programs in recessions, and thelong-run growth in veterans' retirementand pension benefits, total veterans'payments have shown some firming inbusiness contractions.

Role in business expansions

The underlying secular growth inpayments under the various noncyclicalprograms has been the major expan-sionary factor behind transfers in theearly recovery phase of cycles. Inaddition, unemployment benefits havenot fallen as soon as income has recov-ered because of the lag in unemploy-ment rates behind turning points inpersonal income. In the past tworecoveries, unemployment benefits haveincreased substantially for one or twoquarters beyond the low quarters in

(Continued on p. 23)

Corporate Profits and National Income

NOTE: Detail may not add due to rounding.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business

Economics.

1 HIRD-QUARTER corporate earn-ings reached a seasonally adjustedannual rate of $47 billion, an increaseof $1% billion from the second-quarterrate of $45% billion. This gain, whichfollowed a sharp rise of $5% billionfrom the first quarter cyclical low,reflects a corresponding slowdown in theadvance of total GNP. A substantialincrease in production and a continuingrise in profits are expected in the finalmonths of the year.

Profits, including inventory valua-tion gains and losses due to pricechanges in addition to earnings fromcurrent production, rose from $45.2billion in the second quarter to $47.2billion in the third. The somewhatlarger increase in this measure of profitsreflected a shift from inventory valua-tion losses to gains.

With taxes taking about half oftotal corporate income, profits aftertaxes increased $1 billion to $23.8billion in the third quarter.

Dividend payments which have heldsteady over the cycle have shown onlva slight rise so far this year, leaving thebulk of the increase in the after-taxtotal as undistributed profits. Thelatter advanced to $9% billion in thethird quarter, a rise of about $1 billionover the second quarter and of about$3% billion over the first.

By the third quarter, total corporateearnings had virtually regained thecyclical peak of the first quarter of1960, but the recovery was unevenindustrially. Third quarter earningsfor most major industrial groups ex-ceeded those of last year. Profits indurable goods manufactures and trans-portation, which had sustained thelargest losses in the subsequent down-turn, were exceptions. Though scoringthe sharpest rises since this year's firstquarter low, they were still aboutone-seventh below earnings in early1960. In manufacturing, the lag cen-tered in the primary metals, machiner}7,and automobile industries; in trans-portation, it reflected mainly the un-favorable experience of the railroads.

With third quarter profits data nowavailable, national income is estimatedat an annual rate of $434 billion. Thistotal is $8 billion above the secondquarter of the yearthe previous high.In addition to the rise noted in corpo-rate earnings, compensation of employ-ees expanded $6 billion, at an annualrate, as employment, hourly earnings,and the workweek all increased. Pro-prietors' income and net interest roseslightly, while rental income was un-changed.


14 SUEVEY OF CUEKENT BUSINESS December 1961Table 8.National Income by Type of Income (1-8, 1-9)


National income

Compension of employees

Wages and salaries -PrivateMilitaryGovernment civilian

Supplements to wages and salaries _ _ _ .Employer contributions for social

insurance. __ _ __ _Other labor income

Employer contributions to privatepension and welfare funds

Other

Proprietors' income

Business and professionalIncome of unincorporated enterprises..Inventory valuation adjustment

Farm

Rental income of persons

Corporate profits and inventory valuationadjustment __

Profits before tax _Profits tax liabilityProfits after tax

Dividends, . . .Undistributed profits _

Inventory valuation adjustmentNet interest

1958

367.4

257.1

239.8196.6

9.833 5

17.3

8.09.4

7.32.1

46.1

32.532.6 . 113.5

12.2

37.2

37.418.618.812.46.4

-.3

14.8

1959

399.6

278.4

258.5213.2

9.935.4

20.0

9.710.3

8.02.3

46.3

35.035.2j11.3

11.9

46.4

46.823.123.713.410.3

e

16.6

1960

417.1

293.7

271.3223.0

9.938.5

22.4

11.510.9

8.52.4

48.2

36.236 3 112.0

11.7

45.1

45.022.322.714. 18.6

.0

18.4

1960

III IV

1961

I II III

Seasonally adjusted atannual rates

419.0

296.0

273.2224.2

9.939. 1

22.7

11.810.9

48.7

36.3

12.4

11.7

44.1

43.221.421.714.17.6

.9

18.6

416.5

294.0

271.3221.6

10.039.7

22.7

11.511.2

49.0

36.3

12.7

11.7

42.9

42.621.121.414.37.2

.3

18.9

412.2

292.6

270. 1219.7

10. 140.3

22.5

11.710.8

48.9

36.0

12.9

11.5

40.0

39.619.620.014.25.8

.4

19.2

426.0

300.2

277.3226.0

10. 141.2

22.9

12.010.8

49.2

36.3

12.9

11.5

45.5

45.222.4

14! 28.6

.3

19.6

434.3

306.2

282.7230.7

10.241.9

23.4

12.211.2

49.4

36.6

12.8

11.5

47.0

47.223.323.814.39.5

2

20.2

Table 10.National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Formof Organization (1-14)


Table 9.National Income by Industry Division (1-11)[Billions of dollars]

All industries, totalAgriculture, forestry, and fisheries

ManufacturingDurable-goods industriesNondurable-goods industries

Wholesale and retail trade

Finance, insurance, and real estate

Transportation

Communications and public utilities. -

Services

Government and government enter-prises

Other

1958

367.418.3

103.860.843.0

61.1

37.6

16.4

14.2

41.9

46.6

27.4

1959

399.616.3

119.671.548.0

66.4

40.1

17.6

15.3

45.9

49.0

29.3

1960

417.117.2

121.572.549.0

68.8

42.3

17.8

16.6

50.0

52.5

30.3

1960

III IV

1961

I II III


419.017.5

120.871.449.3

69.2

42.5

17.7

16.8

50.5

53.3

30.8

416.517.8

117.569.248.3

68.5

42.8

17.3

17.0

51.0

54.0

30.4

412.217.9

113.165.447.7

68.2

42.9

16.9

17.0

51.3

54.8

30.0

426. 018.0

120.770.849.9

70.8

43.3

17.1

17.3

52.0

55.8

31.0

434.318.2

123.673.150.5

72.0

43.6

17.6

17.5

53.5

56.7

31.7

National income

Income originating in corporate busi-ness _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ _

Compensation of employeesWages and salariesSupplements to wages and

salaries

Corporate profits and inventoryvaluation adjustment l

Profits b^f )r3 tax 'Profits tax liabilityProfits aft^r tax 1

Inventory valuation adjust-ment _ _ - _ _ -

Net interest - _ _

Income originating outside corporatebusiness. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . ...

1958

367.4

195.8

159.5147.4

12.1

35.435.618.617.0

-.3

1.0

171.6

1959

399.6

219.8

174.2160.2

14.0

44.645.023.121.9

-.5

1.0

179.8

1960

417.1

226.5

182.4166.9

15.5

43.243.222.320.8

.0

.8

190.6

1960

III IV

1961

I II III


419.0

226.5

183.3167.6

15.7

42.441.421.420.0

.9

.8

192.6

416.5

222.5

180.8165.2

15.6

40.940.521.119.4

.3

.8

194.0

412.2

217.5

178. 9163. 6

15.3

37.837.419.617.8

.4

.8

194. 6

428.0

228.5

184.2168. 6

15.6

43.543.222.420.8

.3

.9

197.6

434,3

233.5

187.6171. a16.0

45.045. 123.321.8

-.2

,9

200.9

1 Excludes corporate profits originating in ths rest of tha world S3ct:>r.

Table 11.Sources and Uses of Gross Saving (V-2)[Billions of dollars]

Gross private saving

Personal savingUndistributed corporate profitsCorporate inventory valuation

adjustmentCapital consumption allowanceExcess of wage accruals over dis-

bursements

Government surplus on income andproduct transactions

FederalState and local

Gross investment

Gross private domestic invest-ment. _ _ _ _

Net foreign investment

Statistical discrepancy

1958

6X5

24.76.4

.338.6

.0

11.4

9.42.1

56.6

56.6.1

1.5

1959

74.0

23.410.3

.540.8

.0

2.2

1.8.4

70.1

72.42.3

1.7

1960

74.6

22.98.6

.043.1

.0

1.9

3.31.4

73.9

72.41.5

2.6

1960

III IV

1961

I II III

Seasonally adjusted at annualrates

76.4

24.67.6

.943.2

.0

.5

1.41.9

71.9

70.51.4

4.0

73.9

22.77.2

.343.7

.0

1.9

.42.3

69.1

65.63.6

2.9

74.0

23.75.8

.444.2

.0

7.9

5 52 4

63.5

59.83.7

2.6

79.7

25.88.6

.345.0

.0

6.6

4.32 3

71.3

68.82.4

1.8

81.6

26.89.5

.245.5

.0

6.@

3 12.9

74.1

73.2.9

1.5

Table 12.Corporate Profits (Before Tax) and Inventory ValuationAdjustment, by Broad Industry Groups (VI-10)


All industries total

Manufacturing

Durable-goods industriesNondurable-goods industries

Transportation, communications, andpublic utilities. . .

All other industries

1958

37.2

18.3

9.09.3

5.6

13.3

1959

46.4

24.8

13.211.6

6.4

15.2

1960

45.1

23.3

12.011.3

6.8

15.0

1960

III IV -

1961

II III

Seasonally adjusted at annualrates

44.1

22.6

11.411.3

6.6

14.9

42.9

21.6

10.710.9

6.8

14.6

40.0

18.8

8.510.4

6.5

14.6

45.522.311.211.2

7.1

16.1

47.0

23.612.111. C

7.3

16.1


BY WALTHER LEDERER, SAMUEL PIZER, JOHN B. BODDIE, AND MAX LECHTER

Recent Developments in International Trade and InvestmentsThird Quarter Balance of International Payments

FAR in 1961 the balance on ourforeign transactions has been betterthan in 1960, but the substantial im-provement during the early part of theyear has not been held, as businessactivity at home recovered, and therate of economic expansion in some ofthe major countries abroad sloweddown.

After adjustment for seasonal factorsand certain special transactions, the ad-verse balance in our international inter-change during the third quarter wasclose to $800 million, or $3.1 billion atan annual rate.

During the second quarter that bal-anceadjusted for seasonal variations,but omitting receipts from extraordinarydebt repaymentswas adverse by $1.9billion at an annual rate, and in thefirst quarter by $1.4 billion.

For the first three quarters, the for-eign transactions of the United Statesincluding the receipts from the extraor-dinary debt repayments of $650 mil-lion, resulted in a payments balanceof $1.5 billion at an annual rate. Thiscompares with the larger amounts of$3.5 to $4 billion per year in the periodfrom 1958 to 1960.

The balance in our internationaltransactions as defined here shows thechanges in the international liquidityposition of the United States and ismeasured by changes in holdings ofgold and convertible currencies by ourmonetary authorities and the changesin outstanding liquid liabilities.

Before adjustments, the net declinein liquidity during the third quarterwas about $910 million composed of areduction in our combined stock of goldand convertible currencies by close to$270 million, and the rise in liquidliabilities by close to $640 million.

The acceleration in the "deficit" onour foreign transactions appears to havebeen due to several major factors, asindicated in the following tabulation.

The major items having an adverseeffect in the third quarter on the balancewere the substantial rise in merchandiseimports; the sharp reduction in theinflow of foreign capital (other thanliquid funds); and some decline, scat-tered over various items, in the balanceon services transactions. To a majorMajor Recent Changes in the Balance of

International Payments[Billion dollars at annual rates]

Selected items affecting thebalance of payments:

Merchandise importsForeign investments in the

United StatesBalance on services, exclud-

ing military expendituresand sales

Merchandise exports, ex-cluding those financed byGovernment grants andcapital outflows

Balance on unrecordedtransactions

Balance on all items excludingspecial transactions

19

Secondquarter

13.6

1 l

2 4

17.2

1.6

1.9

61

Thirdquarter

15.4

0

1 8

17.3

.5

3.1

Changesresultingin an im-

prove-ment (-+-)or deteri-oration(-)in

the bal-ance

1.8

i i

. 1

2.1

1.2

extent the change in the balance onthese transactions was offset by theshift in the balance on unrecordedtransactions. The rise in merchandiseexports was due largely to highershipments financed under the variousforeign aid programs. Other exportsrose only moderately and their changethus did not provide a major offset tothe adverse effects resulting fromchanges in other items.

To some extent the recent develop-ments in the balance of payments con-form to the pattern one might expectfrom the rise in domestic businessactivity and the slowdown in the rateof economic expansion in some of the

major industrial countries abroad. Toa certain extent, however, changeswhich normally could be expected as aresult of cyclical forces were modifiedby other factors, accelerating the dete-rioration in our liquidity position.These other factors, however, appear toreflect changes in temporary ratherthan in structural conditions.

Rise in Merchandise Imports

Merchandise imports rose from anannual rate of $13.6 billion in the sec-ond quarter to $15.4 billion in the third.An attempt has been madeas shownin the chart on page 17to determinewhat part of that change can be attrib-uted to the increase in domestic busi-ness activity during that period. Thefirst panel in that chart shows the rela-tionship between GNP and imports byquarters over the period from 1950 tothe third quarter of 1961. Percentage-wise, imports rose somewhat slowerthan GNP. Several factors may beresponsible for this. In particular, im-ports of the large foodstuff and bever-age component contributed to theslower pace of total imports since theyrise more in line with the increase inpopulation rather than the increase inincomes.

As the scatter of the individual quar-terly relationships from the regressionline in the first panel indicates, changesin GNP do not explain all of the changesin imports. An examination of the dif-ferences of the actual quarterly importswith those calculated from the regres-sion equation indicated a distinctcyclical pattern.

Various business indicators with astrong cyclical tendency were comparedwith the pattern of the residuals, andchanges in non-farm inventories ap-peared to have the closest similarity.The relationship is shown in the secondpanel. This indicates that everything

15Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS December 1961else being equal, imports will changesubstantially in periods of significantshifts in inventory investment.

A comparison of seasonally adjustedimports with the values calculated onthe basis of a multiple correlation withGNP and nonfarm inventory move-ments is shown in the third panel andthe differences between the two linesin the fourth.

For the period as a whole the cal-culated values seem to follow relativelyclosely the actual import movements,but actual imports fell somewhat shortof the calculated amount in the fourthquarter of 1960 and the first quarter ofthis year. In the second quarter thatshort-fall widened considerably as GNPand inventories rose, but a correspond-ing rise in imports did not materialize.However, imports rose sharply in thethird quarter recovering to the positionindicated by the calculated relationship.Thus, the third quarter rise repre-sented to a large extent a lagged reac-

tion to the advance in domestic businessactivity.

A large part of the import rise in thethird quarter occurred in July. DuringAugust and September imports wereapproximately at a $15 billion rate.The sharp rise in July and the subse-quent leveling out at a lower rate mayhave been due to some extent to theshipping strike at the end of Junewhich could have retarded the arrivaland unloading of ships. The largeshift in the "errors and omissions"from missing net debits of about $400million (quarterly amount) in thesecond quarter to missing net creditsof $125 million in the third quarter,may reflect the shift in imports to theextent that payments for third quarterimports were actually made during thesecond quarter.

To a certain extent, the change inthe deviation of actual from calculatedimports from the second to the thirdquarter appears to have been due to

Table 1.Analysis of U.S. Balance of Payments, Seasonally Adjusted 1(Millions of dollars)

U.S. payments, recorded .Imports:

Merchandise _ _ _Military expendituresOther services. _ _

Remittances and pensionsGovernment grants and capital outflows

Transactions involving no immediate dollarout floiv from the United States 2 . _ _

Dollar payments to foreign countries andinternational institutions

U.S. private capitalDirect investments _Long-term portfolioShort-term

U.S. receipts, recordedExports:

MerchandiseFinanced by Government grants and capital.

Services and military salesRepayments on U.S. Government loansForeign capital other than liquid funds

Excess of recorded receipts or payments ( )On goods, services, remittances, and pensions.On Government grants and capitalOn private U.S. and foreign capital (other

than liquid funds) _ _ _ . _Unrecorded transactions _ __ _Total net receipts (+) or payments ( ) (bal-

anced by changes in holdings of gold andconvertible currencies by U.S. monetaryauthorities and changes in liquid liabilities).Major special transactionsTotal, excluding special transactions . _ _

Calendar year

1959

29, 74315, 2943,1095,134

7913,040

na

na2,3751,372

92677

25, 47216, 282

na7,4271, 054

709-4,271

-619-1,986-1,666

528

-3, 743

335-4, 078

1960

31,41214, 7223,0485,557

8483,3812,1551,2263, 8561,694

8501,312

28, 13119, 4091,8207,891

631200

-3,2813, 125

-2,750-3,656

-648

-3,929-524

-3,405

January September

1960

23, 19811. 2892,3214,213

6182,3681,506

8622,3891,010

606773

21, 02414, 414L2575, 833

scb_121961

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