Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC Annual Meeting

Palm Springs, California

1-2 June 2015

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Welcome to Palm Springs!

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Goals of the Annual Meeting

• Discuss SCEC collaborative research

– Learn about new advances in earthquake science

– Share research results and collaboration plans

• Assess progress on key objectives of the Science Plan and

prepare for the final year of SCEC4

– Six fundamental problems of earthquake science (Beroza)

• Special Fault Study Areas

• SCEC Community Models

– Communication, Education & Outreach (Benthien)

• Gear up for the SCEC5 proposal

– To be submitted to NSF & USGS by Oct 1, 2015

• Have some fun in the sun!

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Dynamic Fault Rupture

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Physics of the Geotechnical Layer

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Tsunami generation

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Building performance

Southern California

Earthquake Center

• 568 pre-registrants

• 140 first-time attendees

• 295 poster abstracts

Scientific sessions:

Monday:• Special Fault Study Areas

• SCEC Community Models

Tuesday:• Earthquakes—From the Lab

to the Field

• Physics-Based Forecasting

and Ground Motions

Wednesday:• Connecting Hazard to RiskWe request that session chairs and speakers make a special effort to

encourage the participation of students and early-career scientists in all

discussions!

Southern California

Earthquake Center

• AVAILABLE FOR

DOWNLOAD

• http://scec.org/sites/default/fi

les/SCEC2015Program.pdf

Southern California

Earthquake Center

New SCEC Website!• Drupal-based content management system

• Supports development of

Science and Collaboration Plans

Proposal submission and review process

Project reporting and publications

Help us add content to the new site: individual profiles, working group activities, etc.

In SCEC5, the website will serve as curated archive of Center knowledge and

resources, as well as a virtual meeting place for researchers and other users to

discover experts, research results, and useful knowledge for promoting community

preparedness and resilience.

Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC Member Institutions (Sept 1, 2014)

10

For those of you attending this meeting who don’t

see your institution on this list, please note that it’s

easy to apply.

We just need a letter from a cognizant official (e.g., your

department chair or dean) that requests this status and

appoints an institutional representative who will act as the

point-of-contact with SCEC.

• One new core institution:

– Texas A&M University (Patrick Fulton),

effective February 1, 2016

• Two new participating institutions:

– University of Canterbury, NZ (Brendon Bradley)

– University of Bristol, UK (Max Werner)

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Southern California Earthquake CenterCore Institutions & Board of Directors

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Southern California Earthquake CenterExternal Advisory Council

CEO Planning Committee

Southern California

Earthquake CenterSCEC4 OrganizationSCEC Director

Board of Directors

Planning

Committee

External Advisory

Council

CEO Program

Earthquake Geology

Tectonic Geodesy

Seismology

Fault & Rupture

Mechanics

Earthquake

Forecasting &

Predictability

Stress & Deformation

Over Time

SoSAFE

Unified Structural

Representation

Eqk Engineering

Implementation

Interface

K-14 Earthquake

Education Initiative

Experiential

Learning & Career

Advancement

Working Group on

California Eqk

Probabilities

Community Modeling

Environment

Collaboratory for

the Study of Eqk

Predictability

Special ProjectsDisciplinary

Groups Focus Groups CEO Activities

Collaboratory for

Interseismic Sim

& Modeling

Center

Administration

Information

Technology

Public Education

& Preparedness

Ground Motion

Prediction

Computational

Science

Central California

Seismic Project

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Southern California Earthquake CenterScience Working Groups & Planning Committee

Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC Special Projects

• Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) by

WGCEP

• Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

• Community Modeling Environment (CME)

– Broadband platform

– CyberShake platform

– F3DT platform

– High-F platform

SRL Special Focus on

the BBP, Jan 2015

Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC Special Project Initiatives

• Advancing Extreme-Scale Computing for Earthquake System Science (AXCESS)

– Awarded a $2.2M SI2 grant by NSF/ACI

• Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM)

– Awarded a $2.0M grant by the W. M. Keck Foundation

• Central California Seismic Project (CCSP)

– An evolving partnership with PG&E

• Executive Science Director for Special Projects

– formulate and manage special-project plans

– coordinate special projects with the core program

– develop new special projects

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Millions

ServiceUnitsonNSFTeraGrid/XSEDEResources

CPUHoursonBlueWaters

ServiceUnitsonNSFYellowstone

ServiceUnitsonDOEINCITEResources

ServiceUnitsonUSCResources

NSF XSEDE

NCSA Blue Waters

NCAR Yellowstone

DOE INCITE

USC HPCC

362M SUs

Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC Executive Science Director for Special Projects

Christine Goulet

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Intensity

MeasuresGround-Motion

Prediction EqnEarthquake Rupture

Forecast

Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM)

Physics-based

simulations

Ground

MotionsGround Motion

Simulator

extended

ERF

CyberShakesynthetic

seismograms

Earthquake Rupture

Simulator

RSQsim

Empirical

models

UCERF3 NGA GMPEs response

spectra

Comprehensive forecast

• Develop a collaboratory where interdisciplinary teams can

create system-specific models for time-dependent

earthquake forecasting that are comprehensive, physics-

based, data calibrated, and prospectively testable

– Develop rupture simulators and ground-motion simulators

using California as the primary test bed

– Combine time-dependent earthquake rupture forecasting

models with ground motion prediction models to forecast

exceedance probabilities

– Test models in CSEP and by other means

• Develop a high-performance, workflow-oriented

cyberinfrastructure that facilitates model verification,

simulation, validation, and data assimilation

– Provide researchers with advanced tools for integrating

heterogeneous sets of scientific software modules into

testable forecasting models

– Maintain a high-performance computing environment in

which system-level models can be rapidly executed and

analyzed

• Initiate WMKF Fellowships in Earthquake Forecasting

Research

– Sponsor CISM participation of early-career scientists

Funded for period 2015.07-2018.07 by a $2M grant from

W.M. Keck Foundation

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Central California Seismic Project

Study Area

F3DT

domain

CyberShake

domain

• Scientific Goal:

– Assess effectiveness of physics-based seismic

wavefield modeling in reducing the epistemic

uncertainties in path effects and other hazard-estimation

components at low exceedance probabilities, using

Central California as a natural laboratory

• Objectives and Tasks:

1. Gather new data from the land environment

2. Gather new data from the marine environment

3. Analyze data for information on source and path effects

and invert for anelastic structure using F3DT

4. Assimilate data into seismic hazard forecasts

5. Use basic research results to improve physics-based

seismic hazard models

6. Measure and validate reduction of epistemic uncertainties

in seismic hazard forecasts

Southern California

Earthquake Center

2015 ShakeOut Earthquake Drills

Participation History (worldwide)2014: 26.5 million (+ NM, KS, FL, Quebec, Yukon,

more)

2013: 25.0 million (+ Southeast, Northeast, MT, WY,

CO)

2012: 19.5 million (+ Japan, New Zealand, UT, WA, AZ)

2011: 12.5 million (+ Central US, BC, OR)

2010: 8.0 million (+ Nevada and Guam)

2009: 6.9 million (+ Northern California)

2008 5.4 million (Southern California)

2015 Official ShakeOut Regions28 Regions worldwide

22 U.S. regions spanning 51 states & territories

55 additional countries with independent

registrations (individuals, schools, etc.)

Key Facts

• Participants practice “Drop, Cover, and Hold On”

and other aspects of their emergency plans.

• Register at www.ShakeOut.org

• Largest component “America’s PrepareAthon,”

sponsored by FEMA

States, Territories, Provinces & Countries Participating in

the 2015 Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills

Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC/CEO Assistant Director for Strategic Partnerships

Sharon Sandow

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Southern California Earthquake CenterManagement and Staff

Southern California

Earthquake Center

SCEC5 Proposal

• Science Plan developed by the non-USGS members of the SCEC

Planning Committee and Board of Directors

– Extensive input from tiger-team white papers and the community at large

– BoD-PC committee abstracted a strategic framework for prioritizing SCEC5

research objectives

– Cast in terms of 5 basic questions of earthquake science

– Questions addressed through an interdisciplinary program comprising 14

topics in 4 main thematic areas

• Proposal to be submitted by Oct 1, 2015

– Site review is scheduled for January 11-14, 2016

– Funding decision before next Annual Meeting?

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Five Basic Questions of Earthquake Science

Q1. How are faults loaded on different temporal and spatial scales?

Q2. What is the role of off-fault inelastic deformation on strain

accumulation, dynamic rupture, and radiated seismic energy?

Q3. How do the evolving structure, composition and physical

properties of fault zones and surrounding rock affect shear

resistance to seismic and aseismic slip?

Q4. How do strong ground motions depend on the complexities and

nonlinearities of dynamic earthquake systems?

Q5. In what ways can system-specific studies enhance our general

understanding of earthquake predictability?

Southern California

Earthquake Center

Topics of the SCEC5 Science Plan

A. Modeling the Fault System

1. Stress and Deformation Over Time

2. Special Fault Study Areas: Focus on

Earthquake Gates

3. Community Models

4. Big Data

B. Understanding Earthquake Processes

5. Beyond Elasticity

6. Modeling Earthquake Source Processes

7. Ground Motion Simulation

8. Induced Seismicity

C. Characterizing Seismic Hazards

9. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Analysis

10. Operational Earthquake Forecasting

11. Earthquake Early Warning

12. Post-Earthquake Rapid Response

D. Reducing Seismic Risk

13. Risk to Distributed Infrastructure

14. Physics of the Geotechnical Layer

Southern California

Earthquake Center

The SCEC Partnership

National

Partners

International

Partners

Core

Institutions

Participating

Institutions

Southern California

Earthquake Center

End