SCENARIO 1: CURRENT MIX CO2 Emissions: 2.039 billion metric tons Financial Cost: $492.4 billion

•Gross Consumer Cost: $489.2 billion•Indirect Costs: $3.2 billion

–Infrastructure: $0.7 billion–Conversion: $2.5 billion

The Automotive Fuel Sustainability ModelABSTRACT

While gasoline and diesel are the most commonly used automotive fuels, they contribute significantly to global warming through greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, scientists and engineers around the world are working to develop alternative fuels that have significantly fewer emissions. In order to make an appropriate comparison between the cost of using traditional fuels and alternative fuels, the entire lifecycle of each fuel must be considered, including production, transportation, and usage. For example, even though electric cars produce no emissions while running, the generation of that electric power may originate from highly polluting sources such as coal. This project team has designed a model that minimizes the total cost of automobile operations per year in a given country, using a linear programming optimization technique. The total cost is a weighted sum of the three primary cost areas of each fuel: gross consumer cost (P), environmental cost (E), and indirect costs (I). The weights are comprised of “country priorities,” which is a numerical interpretation of the importance of P, E, and I to that country. The model’s output is the optimal fuel mix a country should have given its unique costs, priorities, and constraints. The model can perform a large number of different scenario analyses, which renders the model ideal for use as a policy analysis tool. The most relevant model finding is that gasoline is not in the portfolio of optimal fuel mixes unless the user places a high weight on minimizing indirect costs.

AUTHORS: TEAM 8Can Ediboglu (ediboglu@seas.upenn.edu)Hande Erfus (handee@seas.upenn.edu)

Brandon Hedvat (bhedvat@seas.upenn.edu)Guli Zhu (guliz@seas.upenn.edu)

ADVISORSDr. Peter Scott

Mr. Walter Sobkiw

DEMO TIMESThursday, April 22, 2010

9.00 | 9.30 | 10.00 | 15.00

Special Thanks ToMr. Philip D. Farnum

Dr. Ken LakerDr. Raymond Watrous

Mathematical Representation of the Model

Comparison of Fuel Types

LPG• Current Price:

$3.72/GGE• Emissions: 397

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

0.06%

E85• Current Price:

$3.21/GGE• Emissions: 381

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

0.15%

CNG• Current Price:

$1.86/GGE• Emissions: 405

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

0.05%

B20• Current Price:

$2.63/GGE• Emissions: 345

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

0.16%

GASOLINE• Current Price:

$2.64/GGE• Emissions: 474

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

69.7%

DIESEL• Current Price:

$2.54/GGE• Emissions: 401

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

28.8%

ELECTRIC• Current Price:

$1.82/GGE• Emissions: 352

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

0.02%

HYBRID ELECTRIC• Current Price:

$2.64/GGE• Emissions: 343

grams CO2/mile• Y2007 Vehicles:

1.7%

Scenario Analysis

Diesel, 46.9%Hybrid

Electric, 48.9%

B20, 4.1% Electric, 0.02%

Hybrid Electric, 99.9%

B20, 0.1%

Electric, 0.02%

Electric, 10.4%

LPG, 3.7%

E85, 39.7%

CNG, 2.7%

B20, 43.5%

Gasoline, 69.1%

Diesel, 28.8%

Electric, 0.02%

Hybrid Electric, 1.7%

LPG, 0.06% E85, 0.15%

CNG, 0.05%B20, 0.16%

Key FindingsSystems Methodology

Gasoline, 72.3%

Diesel, 19.5%

Electric, 0.02%

E85, 0.07%

B20, 8.2%

In order to use linear programming to determine an optimal fuel mix, the lifecycle of each alternative fuel must first be evaluated. The main costs associated with each fuel can be grouped into three primary cost areas: gross consumer cost (P), environmental cost (E), and indirect costs (I). The following diagram details the most prominent factors that contribute to each cost field. Many of these variables are interdependent, but when analyzed together, they yield a mix that accounts for the subsystems embedded in each stage of the lifecycle of each fuel:

SCENARIO 2: BASE CASE Weights: P = 33%, E = 33%, I = 33% CO2 Emissions: 1.666 billion metric tons Financial Cost: $437.3 billion

•Gross Consumer Cost: $393.8 billion•Indirect Costs: $43.5 billion

–Infrastructure: $4.6 billion–Conversion: $38.9 billion

SCENARIO 3: NO FUEL CAP Weights: P = 33%, E = 33%, I = 33% No constraint on rate of fuel adoption CO2 Emissions: 1.801 billion metric tons Financial Cost: $432.7 billion

•Gross Consumer Cost: $390.6 billion•Indirect Costs: $42.0 billion

–Infrastructure: $8.4 billion–Conversion: $33.7 billion

SCENARIO 4: ONLY ALT. FUELS Weights: P = 33%, E = 33%, I = 33% No constraint on rate of fuel adoption No pure gasoline/diesel vehicles CO2 Emissions: 1.544 billion metric tons Financial Cost: $453.2 billion

•Gross Consumer Cost: $394.1 billion•Indirect Costs: $59.1 billion

–Infrastructure: $0.0 billion–Conversion: $59.1 billion

SCENARIO 5: IMPROVED I.C.E Weights: P = 10%, E = 10%, I = 80%Gasoline/Diesel Emissions: -25%Gasoline/Diesel MPGGE: +25%

CO2 Emissions: 1.558 billion metric tons Financial Cost: $500.9 billion

•Gross Consumer Cost: $495.9 billion•Indirect Costs: $5.1 billion

–Infrastructure: $5.1 billion–Conversion: $0.0 billion

SCENARIO 6: PRO-ENVIRONMENT Weights: P = 10%, E = 80%, I = 10%Gasoline/Diesel Price: $10/gallonCarbon Cost: $50/metric tonElectric Emissions: -50%

CO2 Emissions: 1.636 billion metric tons Financial Cost: $749.3 billion

•Gross Consumer Cost: $524.7 billion•Indirect Costs: $224.6 billion

–Infrastructure: $73.8 billion–Conversion: $150.8 billion

The scenarios below provide the optimal fuel mix for T = 10 years in the future given the Y2007 mix of fuels and level of infrastructure in the United States. It is assumed that 250 million vehicles will traverse 3.5 trillion miles in at time T. Scenario 2 (base case) yields the lowest gross consumer cost Scenario 3 (no fuel cap) yields the lowest overall financial cost Scenario 4 (only alternative fuels) yields the lowest CO2 emissions Scenario 5 (improved I.C.E.) yields the lowest indirect costsIn each scenario, changes in assumptions and constraints significantly alter the optimal fuel mix. It is interesting to note that unless the user places a high weight on minimizing indirect costs, gasoline is not part of any optimal fuel portfolio. This result implies that diesel is a better traditional fuel in terms of overall price and environmental emissions. In general, given some user input of assumptions and constraints, usually one or two fuels dominate the optimal fuel mix.

Key:MPGGE – Miles Per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent | WTW – Well-to-Wheel (from production to consumption) | I.C.E. – Internal Combustion Engine Red – scenario-specific assumption | Green – Lowest cost in category

Gross Consumer Price (P)

• Price per GGE• Subsidies• Annual Demand• Number of Vehicles• Miles Driven

Environmental Cost (E)

• CO2-Equivalent Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (Well-to-Wheel)

• Cost per Metric Ton of Carbon• Miles Driven

Infrastructure Costs (I)

• Cost of Adding or Upgrading Fuel Dispensers

• Incentives (Tax Credits)• Number of Fueling Stations• Compounded Growth Rate of

Each Fuel

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIASCHOOL AND ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCEDepartment of Electrical and Systems Engineering

Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET Model