scenario building process & purpose

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS & PURPOSE

Scenario building is a process for creating and evaluating distinct, but differing possible futures for a planning area. The process allows the evaluation of differing built forms for a community, but also the evaluation of a number of indicators related to each scenario ,such as population, employment, housing mix, age mix, capital and operational costs, tax revenues ,and wage potential.

The process typically encourages the scenarios to be developed in a manner that follows a fairly strict set of guiding principles for each in order to clearly understand the maximum performance of each scenario related to the indicators. Once those

outcomes are evaluated and

understood, a hybrid, “preferred”

scenario is developed that

focuses on the key components

of each scenario that are in

alignment with a community’s

desired future. Those desired components may include a certain age mix, housing mix, level of employment, or population.

Several steps were included in the process of developing Frisco’s Growth Scenarios. First, the consultant determined the areas remaining to become variables in the development of each scenario. To accomplish this, a map was created that indicated all existing development. Then parcels that are platted and/or in the approval process were added. Those areas are considered the “baseline base” (see map on page 11), with little chance of being developed in a significantly different pattern. Finally, constrained areas (floodplain and surface water) were added to the map to indicate areas that would not be developed in the future due to those specific constraints.

The areas that remained within the city limits and extraterritorial jurisdiction of Frisco (areas for future annexation) were the sites to be considered for creating and evaluating differing futures for Frisco. The gray areas on the map on the following page indicate those areas that were considered for differing development types in Frisco’s alternative scenarios.

Not included in these scenarios, but to be discussed with the preferred scenario are implications related to parkland dedication, fire and police stations and staffing, etc. That detailed level of analysis will only be performed on the final, preferred scenario. These components will impact the population and employment calculations and outcomes for the updated Future Land Use Plan.

Scenario

Wildcard

Trends

Preferable

Probable Plausible Possible

Scenario Building to Project Possible Futures

PhysicalOpportunities

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Scenario Building to Project Possible Futures

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Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics,CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP,swisstopo, and the GIS User Community

LegendDevelopment

Baseline Base

Developed

Water Lines

Flood Insurance Risk Zones

0.2 PCT ANNUAL CHANCE FLOOD HAZARD

Floodway

Parks

Thoroughfare Plan

Developed

ETJ

City0 1 20.5Miles

COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATE

BASELINE BASE

City of Frisco - 9.2014

NOTE: Baseline Base represents “Committed” development that is yet to be constructed


SCENARIO A | BASELINE



The “Baseline” scenario explores the implications of

a future for Frisco based upon current trends and

policies. The scenario reflects future development pattern if this current trends continue and existing policies remain in place. It focuses development of those parcels available for future scenario building as identified on the baseline base map, and applies place types that generally reflect the current zoning categories on those parcels that are currently zoned with any category, except for agricultural. For those parcels that are zoned agricultural or located within the extraterritorial jurisdiction (currently outside the city boundaries, but intended for future annexation), the scenario applies place types that generally reflect the uses indicated for those parcels in the 2006 Future Land Use Plan.

Under this scenario, much of the undeveloped property along the Dallas North Tollway would develop as commercial, with the exception of key nodes at the intersection with Main Street and north of Panther Creek which would develop as mixed-use neighborhoods. The State Highway 121 corridor would also have an emphasis on commercial uses, with the exception of small pockets of TOD and mixed-use developments near the intersection of SH 121 and Spring Creek.

The US 380 Corridor would primarily have light industrial uses; however, key intersections with Coit Road, Preston Road, Legacy Drive, and FM 423 would have retail development. The intersection with the DNT would be the location for a major retail development and for transit-oriented development.

The area between Main Street, Eldorado Parkway, Preston Road, and Coit Road would become a major urban node within Frisco with a focus on mixed-use and urban neighborhood development. The majority of the remaining areas of the community would focus on suburban neighborhood place types with commercial at the corners of primary intersections.

SCENARIO A | BASELINE

Key Characteristics

• Scenario reflects future development pattern, if current trends and existing policies remain

• Reflects uses indicated under current zoning and in the 2006 Future Land Use Plan

• DNT would develop as strip commercial with mixed use neighborhoods

• Small pockets of TOD and mixed use along SH 121

• 380 corridor to be primarily light industrial with some strip commercial

• DNT / US 380 to be a major retail development for Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

• Major urban nodes would focus on mixed-use and urban neighborhood development


SCENARIO B | URBAN SPINE



The “Urban Spine” scenario explores the implications of a future for Frisco if development is encouraged to follow a pattern of an intense, linear, urban spine along the DNT corridor with decreasing development intensity to the east and west. It applies place types that generally reflect a much higher density and intensity of development along the major corridors, but keeps the suburban character for interior parcels.

Under this scenario, all of the undeveloped property along the Dallas North Tollway (DNT) would develop as an urban core. Parallel and immediately adjacent to this corridor, mixed use and urban neighborhood place types would act as a transition for the highest density development along the DNT into the surrounding community. The State Highway 121 (SH 121) corridor would have an emphasis on mixed-use development with the retail component taking advantage of the visibility that this corridor provides, and the higher density residential component to provide additional support for the retail in the area.

The US 380 corridor would primarily have blended light industrial types of uses that are needed to support a major employment hub. Infill development along Preston Road would primarily focus on urban neighborhood development, with the exception of the area along Preston Road between Main Street, Eldorado Parkway, and Hillcrest Road. This area would become an urban node within Frisco with a focus on town center, mixed-use neighborhood and urban neighborhood development types between Preston and Hillcrest, and transitioning to single family neighborhoods between Hillcrest and Coit. The majority of the remaining areas of the community would focus on suburban neighborhood place types with commercial nodes at the corners of primary intersections.

SCENARIO B | URBAN SPINE

Key Characteristics

• Pattern of intense, linear development along the DNT spine

• Decreasing intensity to east and west of the DNT

• Urban core densities along the DNT

• Adjacent mixed-use and urban neighborhood place types running parallel to the DNT

• SH 121 corridor primarily mixed-use place types

• US 380 corridor to be primarily industrial park place type

• Mixed-use and mixed residential place types at Preston Road between Main Street, Eldorado Pkwy and Coit Road.


SCENARIO C | DISTRIBUTED CENTERS



SCENARIO C | DISTRIBUTED CENTERS

The “Distributed Centers” scenario explores the implications of development that is encouraged to follow a pattern of community centers, at a variety of scales of intensity and located throughout Frisco. This scenario focuses on centers scattered throughout the community with differing scales and character depending on locations and adjacencies.

Primary nodes in this scenario (those nodes with the highest intensity and density) are located at the intersection of the DNT and US 380, and at the DNT and Main Street. The overall scenario could also support this type of development at the intersection of the DNT and SH 121, but only in a future redevelopment scenario. Under this scenario, all of the properties in these nodes would develop as an urban core. Between these nodes along the DNT, secondary nodes would develop with business park place types near the intersections with Panther Creek Parkway and Lebanon Road.

Secondary nodes would also be located along US 380 with a number of place types including mixed-use neighborhood, commercial, and industrial park types. SH 121 would also be the location of a number of secondary nodes with mixed-use neighborhood, commercial, and urban neighborhood place types infilling and completing the development pattern along this corridor. Additionally, a mixed use neighborhood node would be located at the intersection of SH 121 and Spring Creek adjacent to the rail corridor to support adjacent TOD development in this area.

Another primary node would be located in the area between Main Street, Eldorado Parkway, Preston Road and Coit Road. This area would become a major Higher-Ed Campus with supporting tech/research campus development. This development would be a major catalyst that could change the development direction for this part of Frisco.

The majority of the remaining areas of the community would focus on suburban neighborhood place types.

Key Characteristics

• Development pattern of mixed-use centers at a variety of scales and intensity throughout Frisco

• Primary nodes at intersections of DNT / US 380 and DNT / Main Street

• Nodes will develop as urban core densities

• Mixed-use Higher Ed/Tech Campus node between Main Street, Eldorado Parkway, Preston Road and Coit Road.

• Secondary nodes to develop as business park along the DNT

• Along US 380 secondary nodes will include mixed-use neighborhood, urban neighborhood and industrial park place types

scenario building process & purpose

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