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Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps in Japan
Nobuyuki Morikawa
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), JAPAN
Example of SESMs
The Kego fault zone (south-east part)
・・・ The first application of the revised-version of ‘Recipe’
Characterized source model Fault length (L) by the long-term evaluation ⇒ Outer source parameters
(Added to the revised-version of ‘Recipe’)
Formulae
M = (log L +2.9) / L
(4) log M0 = 1.17・M + 10.72
(2)’ S = 2.23・10-15・(M0×107)2/3 (M≧7)
(3)’ S= 4.24・10-11・(M0×107)1/2 (M<7)
(5) W = S / L
(6) Lmodel = S / Wmodel
(7) Smodel = Lmodel・Wmodel
Characterized source model Outer source parameters ⇒ Inner source parameters
For details, see ‘Recipe’
(http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/JSHIS2/text/news_en.html)
Deep sediments structure model
(Vs=1.1km/s) (Vs=1.4km/s) (Vs=1.7km/s)
(Vs=2.1km/s) (Vs=2.7km/s) (Vs=3.1km/s)
Seismic bedrock (Vs=3.1 km/s) ~ engineering bedrock (Vs = 0.6 km/s)
Results-1 Peak velocity distribution on the engineering bedrock
・ peak velocities at
near source fault in
cases 1a and 1b are
larger than cases 2a
and 2b
・ large peak velocity
region extends to
southeastern of the
source fault in cases 1b
and 2b
(forward directivity
effect and
amplifications by
sediments)
Results-2 Comparison of calculated peak velocity on the engineering bedrock
with an empirical attenuation relation by Si and Midorikawa (1999)
・ Calculated peak
velocities have a
tendency small
compared with the
attenuation relation. The
depth to seismic bedrock
is shallow (200m or
less) at most of the
calculated region.
・ Forward directivity
effect and amplifications
by sediments causes
some large velocities in
cases 1b and 2b.
Results-3 Examples of velocity waveforms on the engineering bedrock
(point A: Locate just on the source fault)
○ cases 1a & 1b (1 asperity model)
large amplitudes with short duration
○ cases 2a & 2b (2 asperities model)
relatively small amplitudes with long
duration
Results-4 Examples of velocity waveforms on the engineering bedrock
(point C: Located in a direction extending from the source fault)
○ cases 1a & 2a
small amplitudes
○ cases 1b & 2b
large pulse with period of about 3s
(forward directivity effect
+ amplification by sediments)
Results-5 Examples of velocity waveforms on the engineering bedrock
(point E: Located on very thick sediments)
○ all cases
remarkable later phases with large
amplitudes and periods of 5s
○ cases 1b & 2b
relatively large amplitude
(forward directivity effect)
Calculation of JMA seismic intensity
(IJMA) on the ground surface
Waveforms on the
engineering bedrock
IJMA on the engineering
bedrock
IJMA on the ground
surface
Engineering
geomorphologic
classification
Amplification factor
for peak velocity
Site amplification factor
for IJMA
Relation between
peak velocity and IJMA
Consideration of surface structure
(engineering bedrock ~ ground surface)
Average S-wave
velocity up to 30m
depth (AVS30)
Surface structure model
Site amplification factor for IJMA from engineering bedrock (Vs=0.6km/s)
to the ground surface
Engineering
geomorphologic
Classification
(Wakamatsu &
Matsuoka, 2008)
Amplification
factor for peak
velocity
(Fujimoto &
Midorikawa, 2006)
AVS30
(Matsuoka &
Wakamatsu,
2008)
Results-6 JMA seismic intensity distribution on the ground surface
・ Large amplification
in basins causes very
large JMA seismic
intensity on the ground
surface for all cases.
・ Difference between
basin and mountain
regions is more
remarkable compared
with peak velocity on
the engineering
bedrock.
IJMA
Conclusions Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps
・・・can understand strong ground motion distribution if the target
earthquake occurs,
・・・are considered the influences of the rupture processes of the
source fault and detail underground structure, especially the deep
sedimentary layers structure.
Problems remain:
・ It is not enough to consider uncertainties in strong-motion
evaluations because only one or few cases are carried out for a target
major active fault.
・The underground structure models should be improved much more.
・SESMs for large subduction-zone earthquakes are also required.
・Forward directivity effect may be overestimated because simple
rupture propagation (circular rupture propagation with a constant
rupture velocity) is assumed in the simulation.
Thank you for your attention !