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  • 8/8/2019 Scenario Planning Basics by University of Wisconsin Cooperative

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    Scenario Planning BasicsScenario Planning BasicsUniversity of Wisconsin CooperativeUniversity of Wisconsin Cooperative

    Extension Strategic PlanningExtension Strategic PlanningNovember, 2006November, 2006

    Scenario PlanningScenario Planning -- HistoryHistoryUse in strategic planning has evolvedUse in strategic planning has evolvedfrom military applicationsfrom military applicationsTheoretical foundations developed in theTheoretical foundations developed in the1970s and early 80s1970s and early 80s complex theoreticalcomplex theoreticalmodels seen as expensive and impracticalmodels seen as expensive and impracticalbeyond academic usebeyond academic use

    Royal Dutch Shell popularized scenarioRoyal Dutch Shell popularized scenarioplanningplanning -- petroleum crisis in 1973.petroleum crisis in 1973.http://http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_plaen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planningnning

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    What is Scenario Planning ?What is Scenario Planning ?

    A method for learning about the future A method for learning about the futurebyby understanding the nature and impact understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our future driving forces affecting our future

    A group process which encourages A group process which encouragesknowledge exchange and developmentknowledge exchange and developmentof mutual deeper understanding of of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of central issues important to the future of an organizationan organization

    A tool in the strategic planning toolbox A tool in the strategic planning toolbox

    What is ScenarioWhat is ScenarioPlanning ?Planning ?

    Goal: to craft a number of diverging stories byGoal: to craft a number of diverging stories byextrapolating uncertain and heavily influencingextrapolating uncertain and heavily influencingdriving forcesdriving forcesStories and conversation about scenariosStories and conversation about scenariosincrease knowledge of organizationincrease knowledge of organization ssenvironment and widen participant perceptionsenvironment and widen participant perceptions

    of possible future eventsof possible future eventsLeads to more informed strategic decisions.Leads to more informed strategic decisions.www.well.comwww.well.com (what is scenario planning)(what is scenario planning)

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    Scenario planning is a discipline for Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the originalrediscovering the originalentrepreneurial power of creativeentrepreneurial power of creative

    foresight in contexts of accelerated foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty.genuine uncertainty.

    ---- PierrePierre Wack Wack

    Scenario PlanningScenario Planning The (A)The (A)ProcessProcess

    Select planning teamSelect planning teamDetermine the questionDetermine the questionGather background informationGather background informationDetermine key driving forcesDetermine key driving forces High level of uncertaintyHigh level of uncertainty

    High level of influenceHigh level of influence

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    Scenario PlanningScenario Planning The (A)The (A)ProcessProcess

    Identify a small number of scenariosIdentify a small number of scenarios InductiveInductive emblematic eventsemblematic events andand thethe

    official futureofficial future DeductiveDeductive building a scenario matrixbuilding a scenario matrixDevelop scenarios (beyond the two mostDevelop scenarios (beyond the two mostimportant driving forces)important driving forces) Include other driving forcesInclude other driving forces

    Systems thinkingSystems thinking Narrative developmentNarrative development Characters, catchy names, etc.Characters, catchy names, etc.

    Scenario PlanningScenario Planning The (A)The (A)ProcessProcess

    Agree on scenarios Agree on scenariosDiscuss what each scenario and theDiscuss what each scenario and thegroup of scenarios as a whole maygroup of scenarios as a whole maymean for the organizationmean for the organizationDiscuss and agree upon strategies forDiscuss and agree upon strategies forproactively addressing uncertainties inproactively addressing uncertainties in

    the organizationthe organization s futures futureOgilveOgilve and Schwartzand Schwartzhttp://http:// www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aidwww.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid =3455=34550&url=%2FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D355200&url=%2FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D35520

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    When to Use Scenario PlanningWhen to Use Scenario Planning

    High levels of uncertainty and complexityHigh levels of uncertainty and complexity

    ResourcesResourceshttp://http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenarioen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario

    _planning _planninghttp://http:// scenariothinking.org/wiki/indexscenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page.php/Main_Pagehttp://http:// www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDwww.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aidisplayServlet.srv?aid =34550&url=%2=34550&url=%2

    FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D355203Fid%3D35520http://www.resalliance.org/1614.phphttp://www.resalliance.org/1614.php


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