scenario plannning for local government in south africa 2011
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SCENARIO PLANNING FOR CITIES AND TOWNS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Shahid Solomon
September 2011Silimela Development Services
www.silimelaafrica.com
City and Regional (Territorial)Scenario Planning manages creative tensions:
Forecasts and Projections Models
Collective Imagining Scenarios
Collective Deciding Visions
Why is long term city planning a world wide trend?
→Most cities have grown on the assumption of limitless fossil fuel
→No modern city in current form can be regarded as truly sustainable over the next 20 years
→Example: Vancouver: working back from “bust”
→Few cities may even be feasible as they are now, by 2100!
CURRENT Challenges of local government in South Africa
→Class 1: Very high vulnerability : 25%→Class 2: High vulnerability: 25%→Class 3: Medium vulnerability: 25%→Class 4: Low vulnerability: 25% (excl 6 metros)
Many communities risk being left behind by the future 1
→Global warming and desertification →World’s highest fossil fuel / GDP consumption ratios in big
cities and huge distances between small cities, towns and villages
→Major shifts in technology will reshape urban systems →Sustained tourism boom for at least another 50 years→Globalisation will leave behind those towns, cities and regions
which are not “smart”
Many communities risk being left behind by the future 2
→Water and food scarcities→The widening divide between “haves” and “have not’s”→Failing education system in context of a world moving into a
knowledge economy
Current planning systems are weak
→The compulsory Integrated Development Plans (IDPs)are for only 5 years
→General lack of strategic and research capacity to do IDPs
→The vision for the municipality is political “motherhood and apple” pie
→Access and communication difficulties for less educated communities struggling with basic need issues
Benefits of local government scenario planning
→ Captures different points of view→ Is imaginative and captures interest of youth→ Attracts key government and business decision
makers→ De-politicises the future→ Emphasizes the need for partnership → Attracts innovative ideas → Common language for debate
Huge strategy integration challenge of local government planning
Coping with uncertainty
Steps in the Scenario Planning Process
Process
Mainstreaming: connecting the plausible future with where we
are now
Bringing it all together
Local Governance Partnerships are at the heart of change
Case Study 1: Gauteng City Region Vision 2055
Objectives:→ Use scenario planning → Base debate on best available analysis, supported with
global benchmarking → Get key decision makers involved from the beginning→ Define a vision based on best case attainable scenario→ Agree on the strategic choices → Implement the choices in ongoing strategic processes
Process Design
Strengths• Largest urban economy in Africa: the only true Global City
Region• Logistics hub of the SADC region of 200 million (growing to
300 million by 2030)• English speaking• Political, academic and cultural centre• Gateway between Africa and the world• Established City Region structures• Massive investment in Gautrain and Bus Rapid Transport• Significant revitalisation of Inner City
Weaknesses• Highest levels of inequality and violent crime in the
world• 3m people earning less than 1 $ per day, living in
shacks & hardest hit by crime & disease • 1 ½ million structurally unemployed• Chronic and deepening skills shortage• Weak alignment between government departments
and spheres• Very high fossil fuel dependency• Inefficient urban structure
The Big Surprises→The Gauteng City Region doubles from its
current size of 12-14 m to 25m people by 2055→Half of the South African population lives in the
City Region by 2055→At the same time the population of the African
continent doubles to 2 billion people and is the world’s fastest growing region
Best Case Scenario: African Knowledge Capital
African Vision: 2009 – 2014: The City Region was positioned and geared for the
anticipated ”long boom” in commodity prices and the higher levels of investment in Africa by setting itself up for
business as a gateway to the African economy.
African Trade and Manufacturing Hub: 2015 – 2024: Because it laid the foundation by getting the basics right in the 2009 to
2014 years, the City Region used its strengths to become a booming African trade and manufacturing centre.
African Gateway: 2025 – 2034:
Because it was successful as a trade and manufacturing hub, Gauteng began to diversify and became a gateway of
services, information and connections to Africa.
African Knowledge Capital: 2035 – 2055: Because of its gateway role, Gauteng was able to develop into a global hub for African knowledge,
technology and creative industries.
Business As Usual Scenario: African Mega Conurbation
African Dream: 2009-2014 Following the recession of 2009, the thousands of workers who lost
their permanent jobs in Gauteng joined the long queue of the million people who had not had a job in the past three years.
African Shopping Centre: 2015 – 2024:Because the City Region did not have the foundations in place, it
struggled to compete with the new rules of sustainability, energy efficiency and changing trade opportunities.
The “long emergency” of escalating energy prices, draconian regulations for cutting carbon emissions, and intensifying climate change had arrived
African Mega Conurbation Continued African Island: 2025 -2034: Because Gauteng was not a trusted gateway to Africa, the City Region became
more isolated from the opportunities being created on the continent.Gauteng had been overtaken by a poverty trap too vast to deal with in any five-
year term of government. The high carbon emission rating of “Made in Gauteng” goods closed off major export markets.
African Mega Conurbation: 2035 -2055 Because Gauteng had become fragmented and isolated, it became a loose
collection of parts that competed with each other for growth, trade and investment and at the same time avoided having to deal with social and environmental issues.
The City Region was unable to deal with the energy and food security crises, and daily life became increasingly fragile for the “brave” who continued to visit and live in the world’s most dangerous City Region.
Case Study Two: King Sabata Dalindyebo Municipality: Eastern Cape
Local Development Challenges 1
→ Very high unemployment…up to 60%→ Youth, old age and poverty dependency→ Major disparity between rural and urban → Spatial remoteness→ Institutional complexity
→ Mthatha as a former homeland capital
Local Development Challenges 2
→ Municipality struggling to come to terms with
→Basic service delivery→Infrastructure backlogs→Financial viability →Short and long term planning
The Process Intent Bring together the views and insights of
→Government→Local business→Civil society organisations→Research institutions
…in an inclusive and effective manner in order to be able to stimulate a useful perspective on the long term (2030) future.
Key Steps in The Process
Research Foundation →Probabilistic Analysis→Past KSD socio-economic trends→Three SA scenario exercises
→Presidency→Dinokeng→COFISA Eastern Cape
→Many international studies and scenario exercises
Proto Scenarios
Participants were asked: tell us how these three toddlers in different settings grow up to 2030?
Example→Lulama, born 15 October
2008 in Ngangelizwe Township in Mthatha
→22 years old in 2030
What happens to Lulama...
→ Completed Matric in Ngangelizwe→ Received bursary from KSD→ Has honours in Environmental Science→ Registered for a Masters degree→ Learned business skills from local role models→ Working as a consultant in environmental management→ Has contributed towards improving natural assets, esp.
Rivers→ Passionate about rebuilding and reclaiming Mthatha→ Also runs an office in Durban, works remotely→ Lives in her own flat close to the CBD
What happens to the setting: Mthatha Othathayo 2030
→ Economic infrastructure has improved esp. the completion of Mthatha-Kokstad rail line
→ Public transport system is good→ Airport Upgrades→ Improved Agriculture – food security→ Rail networks links products to markets→ ICT Development→ Use CCTV (Close Circuit Television)- to fight crime→ Water is clean and recreation areas are good, clean air,
contributing towards good quality of life→ Better housing – through mixed use high density development→ Mthatha has grown due to its strategic location between East
London, Kokstad, Queenstown and enhanced rail system
Participants were then asked: To make the good things in these stories come true, what needs to happen in KSD?
Product = 7 Directions for the Future
1. Fix Mthatha
2. Boost Farming
3. Pull Social Development Together
4. Drive Technology- knowledge
5. Launch Tourism
6. Connect up Rail and Road
7. Build Collective Leadership
Participants asked again: How will the 7 Directions play out in the 4 Proto Scenarios?
Product = 4 probable and collectively imagined scenarios
→ Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)→ Gxaba Gxabiso (Quick Results)→ Intlakohlazo (Greener than Usual) → Inkqubela Phambili Sibambisene (Sustainable
Development)
BIG BOX OLD TECH GREEN TECH
ON
GRI
D
O
FF G
RID
SERVICE DELIVERY IN
VEST
MEN
T A
ND
TE
CHN
OLO
GY
People-driven Social capital focusRecyclingCultivates local investmentCommunity TechnologySmall farm collectives
Some pilot projectsOnly a few benefitRural community left behindGreen town & villagesRelies on government
Gated development Big Malls
Mega-farmsMass-resorts
Depends on outside investors
Infrastructure Backlogs Subsistence Farms
Grudge Tourism Little private investment
Relies on government
Scenario Implications
→identified key strategic choices that KSD needs to make.
Reflection and Closure
Final Steering Committee workshop:→distilled key learning’s from the
process in regard to long term planning for KSD
→Suggested replication of the process in other communities in South Africa....concept of scenario planning toolkit
LESSONS LEARNED 1
→Solid research base is critical: no short cuts→Both engagement processes were successful
and can be replicated→high level of interest and participation →Consensus reached quickly on
→future threats and opportunities→the choices which need to be made soon
→Both processes stalled once government had to start digesting approvals
LESSONS LEARNED 2
→ Extending the conversation to the broader community: in Gauteng this is starting....
→ Managing powerlessness: government struggles to work with itself
→ Fragmented delivery of social development services, when this is core issue
→ Inability to drive creative industries and developmental tourism
→ Education is the Achilles Heel:→Early Childhood Development→Primary Schooling →Vocational Skills
LESSONS LEARNED 3
→Capable long term local partnerships are the key to unlocking the future....and we don’t know how to make them happen
→The “sustainable development” scenario needs to be:
→translated into concrete 5/10/15 year milestone indicators
→coupled with local IDPs and other government programmes
→supported by business, academia and community organisations
