Scenarios Prospecting: Latin American Energy Matrix 2030

Joyce Penagos Mendez

1. INTRODUCTIONLatin America has a precious heritage of energy resources, a region that has abundant resources for self-sufficiency and the export of primary resources. Historically the use of these has varied according to the region and specific zone, since the energy potential is related to the geographical position in a given point of the terrestrial globe. "Energy is essential to attain economic objectives interrelated to sustainable development; To achieve this goal, the types of energy produced will have to change, since environmental damage occurs rapidly, leading to inequality and the global economic growth will be adversely affected "(UNDP, 2000).

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) represent 4% of primary energy production worldwide; The internal matrix is mainly characterized by the primary oil supply 44.3%, natural gas 22%, biofuels 18% and 9.9% hydropower (OLADE, 2015), with the participation of other renewables and nuclear energy. A glance at its general energy matrix (Figure 1) may reveal the majority share by fossil fuels in different sectors.

Figure 1. Latin American Energy Matrix 2014

The percentage of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) is due to the characteristic level of these reserves in the region, accounting for approximately 20% of world production, with 329.6 mmbbl (million barrels) of proven reserves; of which Venezuela has more than 90%, which gives a margin of reserves for over a hundred years compared to reserves worldwide. (OLADE, 2015).

The main oil energy producers in the region are: Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador and Peru (Figure 2); Thus showing a high regional competitiveness and an overview of the main countries involved when it refers to a future energy diversification.

Figure 2. Energy Production Comparison (Crude Oil), LAC 2014

The energy supply must be sufficient, continuous and its price must be competitive (CONANT, GOLD 1981), these are deeply priority to be reviewed in the following decades due to energy demand factors; which it is closely linked to the regional growth and thus with increasing living standards of citizens as a manifestation of development (PENAGOS, MOLINA 2015).

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is the developing region that has registered the fastest urbanization in the world. The percentage of urban population increased from 41% in 1950 to 80% in 2010. Simultaneously, the region shows a significant concentration of economic activity in their cities. At present, between 60% and 70% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) is produced in urban centers (IDB 2011). Other trends of economic growth projections set standards for energy production in the region, as well as the industrial economy, consumption of raw materials, basic infrastructure, per-capita energy levels and environmental degradation; In addition to technological changes, which are decisive factors for the exploration, exploitation and exportation of energy resources.

Analyzing the final regional consumption by sector, it is interesting to relate the effect of urbanization with motorization and industrialization, which correspond to more than 68% of energy demand (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Final Consumption by Sector and source, LAC 2014

The transportation sector stands out because of its importance. Its contribution of 35% of emissions linked to the use of fuel is the highest compared to other regions of the world. High rates of motorization, rapid urbanization, the slow renewal of the fleet of vehicles and the relatively low standards in fuel economies have led to a rise in carbon dioxide emissions from transportation over the past decade to a rate faster than any other energy-consuming sector (IDB 2011).

In addition to the above, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, more generally of carbon dioxide, is widely known as a generator of climate change, raising the planet's temperature by 0.8C from pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2014). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its fifth report, there is projected an increase in average global temperature of 2C by 2100 from pre-industrial levels, an effect that would influence negatively both environmental and the economical stability in the world. Latin America is only responsible for 12.5% of emissions, but would be one of the regions most affected by the global temperature increase; According to the Latin American Development Bank, among the main effects of climate change in Latin America, can be highlighted:

• Rainfall reduction in Patagonia, Central Brazil, the Caribbean and Central America.

• Increased drought across the region, a fact that would undermine the agro-industrial production and reduce the production capacity in Latin America.

• Increase in the level of the oceans that would put at risk populations installed in the sea front.

These issues, combined with the high dependence on raw materials, lack of diversification and internal financing capabilities, do not contribute to the improvement of productive integration and energy sustainability (OLADE, 2015); also, generating economic and social collapse in the region, despite the its increasing trend of its resources utilization to ensure higher income levels.

Energy is not only necessary to ensure the quality of life of the population in cities, it is also a factor of production of the economy (IDB 2011). Especially the supply of electricity must be considered as a relevant right for the full effectiveness of certain economic and social rights (BIAZATTI; ROBADEY, 2016). The current average coverage, according to BID studies, is that there is 95% of access to electricity. The second point is to address the challenge of mobilizing material, financial and human resources to create an infrastructure that will be needed to meet the growing demand for universal access to electricity (which is expected to double in the next 20 years), and replace obsolete infrastructure.

Figure 4. Electrical Coverage LAC 2013

Within this regional context, the strategic importance of Brazil as an energy reference is established, the production of oil and natural gas currently determine the country's future. Among the principles and objectives of the National Energy Policy, key factors for strategic planning in the energy sector, cataloged by Filho (2009) are set as: 1) supply reliability 2) rates affordability; 3) supply universalization; 4) expansion at mini cost, considering the environmental variable; 5) respect for existing contracts; 6) planning strengthening; 7) matrix

diversification; 8) national integration; 9) national, renewable and competitive sources, 10) technological development and 11) South American integration.

In this context, fossil fuel reserves provide a key picture of the situation in the south of the continent. The discovery of Pre-salt, a province composed of large accumulations of light crude, of excellent quality, with high commercial value (Petrobras, 2015), with an estimate of 8-12 billion barrels of oil equivalent (MME, 2015), provides a strategic part in regional geopolitics of oil.

Figure 5. Pre-salt area. PETROBRAS, 2015

Pre-salt, an area with approximately 800 km of extension and 200 km of width, between the coast of Santa Catarina and Espírito Santo states, corresponding to almost three and a half times the state of Rio de Janeiro (PETROBRAS, 2015), with a total area of (149 thousand km2). The reserves of this province are 300 km of the Southeast region, which concentrates 55% of the country GDP.

To relate and understand the projects as well as the different energy matrices in the region, it is necessary to apply the concept of geopolitics of energy, which according to Oliveira (2012) can be understood as the analysis of a set of strategic geopolitical elements that influence exploration, structure, transportation and end use of energy resources.

2. ENERGY SECTOR TRENDS LATIN AMERICA 2050• At the global level, governments play a crucial role, as they provide frameworks for the

design and operation of energy markets (WEC, PSI, 2013). Also as seen in the COP21 (United Nations Climate Change Conference) the participation of countries in global agreements is increasing and accelerating the implementation of previous agreements (UNFCCC, 2015 ).

• Increase in the urbanization process with a current 79% of urbanization (WEC, PSI, 2013); Implying the need for investments in the areas of transportation and electrification, for equitable and controlled growth.

• Regarding carbon mitigation, an energy transition from carbon to natural gas is projected in the electricity generation sector. Nevertheless, fossil fuels continue to represent a significative share in the regional energy matrix.

• Access to energy resources may be more available due to technological innovations in the energy sector.

3. 2030 SCENARIOS PROSPECTIONThe creation of the following three scenarios was carried out using the GBN (Global Business Network) method, which requires experience in the field; presenting characteristics as the little systematization, greater flexibility and creativity; thus being more intuitive and less complex.

They were used three models of reference scenarios, due to the structural complexity of the subject; among them, the one proposed by the World Energy Council, which establishes two world scenarios (Jazz and Symphony), not antagonistic in objectives, however its approach diverges in the sustainability and the acquisition of the resources, as well as the economic strategies (neo-liberal or nationalist). Another model adopted is the one proposed by the Stockholm Environment Institute, exemplified by GALLOPIN (1997), where there are three scenarios (Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, Great Transitions) each with two slopes according to the proposed variables: population, economy, environment, equity, technology and conflict).

In parallel, for a more regional approach, the model presented in the National Energy Plan 2030: Global Macroeconomic Scenarios, has three basic elements of uncertainty: the pattern of globalization, the structure of economic political power, and the solution of conflicts (MME, EPE 2007).

In this perspective, the objective was to have a generalized vision of the possible changes of the Latin American energy matrix for the year 2030, having as a reference Brazil, due to its political and economic influence in the region.

The structural variables were determined as following:

• Integration Vs Disputes • Technological innovation • Pre-salt • Environmental Degradation, linked to the non-use of low carbon technologies

The interrelated driving forces are categorized as:

• Regional geopolitics • Technology • Climate change mitigation • Social expectations • Access to resources and capital • Political regulations • Economic growth • Energy demand

The last two factors are taken as frequent and growing within the scenarios. Uncertainties were classified as: geopolitical, technological, political (current availability for new climate and environmental regulations) and economical (investment and access to capital).Within the proposed approach, three scenarios were established: Latinoamérica ko'ãgagua jehecha , is 1

developed within a business as always framework, in which there are no big surprises, discontinuities, or fundamental transformations in society and is characterized by the Jevons 2

paradox. The next scenario is Wakllikuma described as a Malthusian catastrophe of the 3

previous scenario, of institutional disintegration and economic collapse; finally Yapajíamu , 4

scenario of possible visionary and non-idealistic results of social and economic organizations based on eco-efficiency and the precautionary principle . 5 6

One of the important points is to know that, in terms of raw materials, natural resources are the basis for generating energy scenarios, such as the role of new alternative and sustainable sources, which present a series of characteristics, such as the temporal and geographical variability, thus setting up important challenges as it becomes a choice of supply in the electricity sector for society.

1. It means "Latin America, a current vision" in the Guarani language, official language of Paraguay

The principle that states as technological progress increases, the efficiency of that resource utilization, 2

consumption will increase.

It means "Crisis" in Kichwa language, spoken in Ecuador, Colombia and Peru3

It means the "Change" in the Achuar language, spoken in Ecuador and Peru4

An approach that seeks to minimize environmental impacts by maximizing material and energy efficiencies of 5

production.

In environmental terms, means coordinating economic development and the profit motive with the need to 6

maintain resilient ecosystems.

3.1. LATINOAMÉRICA KO'ÃGAGUA JEHECHA

This is a Latin America with processes of regional integration, but also with geopolitical disputes, with a constant step in innovation and apparent stabilization of environmental degradation, coupled with an attempt at energy transition, where the Pre-salt is a key In-game, as well as other natural gas reserves in the bloc.

Geopolitical, cultural and technological changes (especially in the information sector) have created new markets with private investment directed towards a mercantile integration, due to the gradual economic growth and the socio-economic convergence between nations of the region, where industrial capitalism, globalization and overconsumption (individualism) are the preponderant characteristics. Migration (both from the Middle East and local rural areas) continues, but exponentially to the cities, creating 6 megacities with 10 million inhabitants like Mexico City, Bogotá, Lima, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires (IDB7x, 2015). Phenomenon that contributes with the competition of the natural resources, with the increase in energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions. Infrastructure and technology have expanded to provide modern and sustainable energy services for developing countries, in particular for small island developing states and landlocked developing countries (VIERA, 2015).

Brazil's energy production increases to 115% while consumption grows to 72% (BP, 2015), the national energy matrix is dominated mainly by oil and natural gas, with a strong participation of conventional renewables (hydroelectric plants); also ethanol production for consumption in the transportation sector for domestic supply of electricity, plays an important role in the national energy scenario, as well as the increase of the insertion of electricity generated from cane (MME, EPE, 2013).

New regulatory frameworks are established for oil and gas exploration in the Pre-salt area. A new oil company emerged: a camouflaged state-owned company, which promotes the definitive development of the oil platform in the Santos Basin, with the installation of eleven SPUs (Stationary Production Units) (MME, 2015). The transition from oil to natural gas has been more evident due to the opportunity to halve carbon dioxide during production and the use of the Pre-salt, one of the largest discovery in the region's oil industry. Which has left in a privileged position economically as much politically to Brazil; additionally, the creation of a Social Development Fund, which maintains the distribution of royalties, reaching positive levels of development at the local and state level.

There is a continuity with Brazil's national energy policy, where conservation of the national interest, the promotion of development and the expansion of the labor market, as well as the exploitation of energy resources are the anthem of the nation (CNPE, 2014). In this way binational integration projects are more frequent, the diversification of its energy matrix and innovation applied to industry correspond to the new energy horizon of the country, acting as an Energy Decision Center (OLIVEIRA, 2012) in the region.

Regarding the supply and production of natural gas, the construction of a gas pipeline for the connection of Venezuelan reserves to the Brazilian market is a fact; also, with the expansion of Gasbol (Bolivia-Brazil Gas Pipeline). In the same way, the exploitation of Peruvian natural gas reserves has started especially in the Camisea region. The supply of LNG from countries such as Trinidad & Tobago and Nigeria (MME, EPE, 2007) is evaluated and accepted.

Renewable energy projects such as wind and solar energy have skyrocketed in the region due to the approval of subsidies and financing mechanisms, countries like Chile in the Atacama region, Mexico in the Baja California (PENAGOS, Et al, 2014) have implemented photovoltaic generation projects, likewise in Argentina, Brazil and Colombia; investments in wind energy have tripled and co-generation as well as wind farms in rural areas are common. Geothermal energy has taken place, with only 5 established producing countries, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica (BRUNI, 2014), however countries such as Bolivia, Chile and Colombia have started geothermal energy projects.

Nuclear power has reduced its participation in the matrix due to the lack of control, planning and integration process by the UNASUR (Union of South American Nations) , especially 7

between Argentina and Brazil, the only countries to continue with the production of nuclear energy in South America, according to international parameters established. Nevertheless, Argentina continues with a growth and increase of projects in the creation of nuclear power plants in collaboration with Russia and China.

The construction of hydroelectric power plants in the Amazon continues, due to its abundant resources, in addition to its strategic location as the heart of the continent; which resulted in the conclusion of projects such as the hydroelectric plant Inambari, South America's fifth largest hydroelectric plant with 2.5 GW of installed capacity (GOMEZ, 2014). On the other hand, new frameworks for environmental and social assessments have been adopted after the re-structuring of a national law promulgated by the civil society and indigenous communities, due to institutional weakness and lack of follow-up of previous projects, that led to the establishment of a multi-sectoral agreement for the approval of new projects in the Amazon.

Opportunities for regional dialogue, monitoring and compliance with the Agenda 2045 have become more widespread and common, such as the Forum of Latin American and Caribbean Countries on Sustainable Development, as well as the various regional meetings where Latin American youth have taken force for the formulation of youth and climate public policies.

The region has taken slow but significant steps to develop natural gas and alternative energy low carbon production, leading to interesting prospects in the medium term.

Is an intergovernmental regional organization comprising 12 South American countries7

3.2. WAKLLIKUMA

Scenario with widespread environmental degradation, competition and geopolitical conflicts for energy resources including strategic international allies; who wish to exercise sovereignty over reserves as the pre-salt, low innovation and use of low-carbon technologies.

The limits of the carrying capacity of the system are almost reached, leading to a decline in the socio-environmental system, despite the intense regional industrial activity, there is widespread energy poverty outside certain exclusive areas in the metropolis, due to an extraordinary increase in prices of electricity; technological innovation is in the hands of few private industries away from the public domain, the access to resources has gradually been limited, leading to social polarization. The environmental, economical and social imbalances of the cities generate insurmountable barriers of inequality for the sustainable development of the countries; thus impeding regional integration, depending on large scale on international economy, establishing unequal alliances with nations outside the region and destabilizing the constitutional order of oil producing nations by third parties.

The risks of climate disasters are more evident, due to the lack of resilience: adequate infrastructure and a transparent governance. Adaptation to climate impacts is increasingly difficult, the collapse of sanitation and transport systems due to lack of planning and mismanagement, leads to a phenomena such as motorization to the limit, caused by the poor quality of public transportation, moreover by a combination of factors including the increase in GDP per capita, the downward trend in the cost of owning a car (IDB, 2011), due to the continued liberalization of tariffs and trade neoliberalism with China and other emerging Asian nations.

Corruption, authoritarian planning dominated by political interests and by a business elite influences the quality of services, inadequate pricing structures make large industrial producers to put pressure on alternative sources of supply, affecting levels of aquifers and other important reserves.

Since about 70% of the hydroelectric potential to be exploited is in the Amazon and in the Cerrado, biomes that cover approximately two-thirds of the Brazilian national territory (MME, EPE, 2007), environmental management policies and practices are being challenged by the massive expansion of hydroelectric projects, evading socio-environmental supervision, leading to the uprising of indigenous populations and the union of these peoples, creating strong ethnical, cultural and social conflicts; leaving sequels in the paradigm of consumption and regional energy production.

A characteristic of the few bi-national or multilateral projects is the irregularity and institutional weakness due to the fair distribution of the revenues from the co-generation. This has led to the gradual limitation of regional geopolitical trust; also to the new regional hegemony: Brazil, generating inequalities and impeding local integration processes. This nation has a strategic political-economic position after its economic growth due to the

exploitation of the Pre-salt and the militarization of it by means of consortiums with foreign private companies.

Due to this accentuated divergencies, and to the disintegration of Mercosur (Southern Common Market) ; greater integration is reflected with Asian countries, thus increasing the 8

dependence on fossil fuels importations from these countries, process known as the degradation of energy security (IEA, 2015). Similarly the technological innovation diminishes its quality due to factors of a production with low competitiveness, therefore low qualification of the technical labor.

The polarization in the global political and economical structure has led to the creation of unproductive alliances in the growth of the region, deeply dividing Latin American nations and their interests to be allies of the West or the East bloc. It was a growing concern for the United States China's presence in South America, for control of mineral and energy resources, such as Mutum's iron reserves and existing natural gas reserves in Bolivia, Patagonia and of course the Guarani Aquifer, the third largest reserve of groundwater in the world, located in the countries that made up the Mercosur (BANDEIRA, 2008).

New fleets of SOPs (Special Operation Forces) in the South Atlantic with the initiative to establish maritime security in the southern hemisphere, such as reconnaissance missions, formerly known as humanitarian missions, as described by Bandeira (2008), are now the routine. The fight among the titans takes place in Latin America, the new world, the world with infinite resources. Brazil is not interested in going to war with a technologically superior power and likewise if it is involved in a conflict that reaches its borders and, consequently, affects its national security, as in Bolivia, involving Venezuela. In the same way, this nation remains absent in the disputes of East and West in the continent, being in favor of the two blocs.

On the other hand, certain groups of new leaders, intellectuals and stratagems have came out with a plan for the re-stabilization of the bloc, from a private perspective; ideas and projects ranging from the use of alliances as a strategy for technology transfer, to create a Latin American space agency (use of outer space), advances in technologies such as hydrogen and nuclear energy based on Thorium (whose reserves abound in the region), and the creation of nanotechnology materials companies (abundant raw material). Generating interesting offers for the return of professionals who left the bloc looking for higher quality of life and research. Once with the raw material, technical labor and a new plan, the region could face the crisis and regain sovereignty of its resources.

Mercosur or Mercosul, is a sub-regional bloc. Its full members are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay8

3.3. YAPAJÍAMU

A perspective of what Latin America is consistent to achieve with a high integrationist profile, generating technological innovation, diversification of the energy matrix towards low carbon sources; With a promising future, one side economic development and the other with sustainable development, but with the same vision, as well as the god of Roman mythology Janus.

The precautionary principle and eco-efficiency are the official motto in today's society, the concept of economic growth is no longer trivialized to the mere exploitation of resources, but to a revision of the production chain from beginning to end, to avoid negative externalities. A socio-environmental de-construction took place for new actors to lay the foundations for an abundant energy development, both economically and socially logical. A circular and solidarity economy are part of the local production. Regional integration has progressed towards directions that are not limited to commercial logic, rather an integration of energy, transportation, communication, security and defense infrastructure even cultural integration started taking place.

Challenges such as climate change, weak governance and fluctuating economy, generated a change in social expectations, thus producing greater citizen participation in relation to energy issues, from planning to the execution of new companies. This led indirectly to the search for expertise through multilateral institutions, generating several binational and cross-border companies, as well as regional development banks and funds for financing; promoting technological transfer in a favorable environment of research and development, through universities and academic centers.

Other initiatives such as pollutant taxes, creating regional conferences and legally binding climate agreements, been promoted by private entities as a key tool for what the industry calls Climate Capitalism, an approach to the idea of making profit by having social and environmental responsibility; situation that has so far favored a diversified energy matrix in low carbon as well as increased energy efficiency in industry, buildings and mobility.

With the implementation of PPPs - Public Private Partnerships, which possess enough experience in the design of contracts, regulating private sector participation and coordination of public policies (IBRD, 2014), has been possible to include integrated planning in the transportation sector, increasing energy efficiency, facilitating investments in public transportation infrastructure, supporting public transportation networks and creating strong alternatives such as safe car sharing, walking or cycling. This reduction in transportation demand took place in the use of communication technologies (IEA, 2015); which are part of the new concept of smart cities through the application of interconnectivity and social engineering. Gradually the region understood the imperiousness in the investment of space technology to control and have its own access to the information, besides the creation of regional technology and the monitoring to facilitate the sovereignty of natural resources, enough arguments for the creation of the Latin American Space Agency.

Progressively was reduced the use of less efficient plants, especially coal-fired plants, until they were finally banned, and the percentage of subsidies directed to the consumption of oil has been greatly diminished, reducing greenhouse gas emissions since the first transition, which took place towards the production of natural gas.

Bolivia is currently the energy center of the region, its policy establishes a sustainable integrationist development, highlighting the use of energy resources as a factor of regional integration through mechanisms that address economical asymmetries arising from the effects of trade relations with industrialized countries of market economies, a concept revived by the Lima Convention for the Integration of Energy in Latin America and the Caribbean (OLADE a, 2015). At the same time, UNASUR, as a promoter of regional energy integration, is being strengthened through the consolidation of previously abandoned energy integration projects, such as the research and creation of a nuclear reactor based in Thorium, as this technology does not represent risk of nuclear proliferation being the fuel 3 to 4 times more abundant than uranium, widely distributed in the region (IAEA, 2005).

Other interesting proposals are being carried out as well as the replacement of road transport by waterways, which emit less pollutants, lower risk of accidents and lower cost per kilometer (CNT, 2013). In relation to solid urban waste and livestock waste, the use of energy from locally generated biogas is no longer an unusual idea; it has become a common practice even as it represents an important availability of energy supply in rural development. In this way, legislation and technical capacity have favored distributed generation at the local level.

On the horizon, the availability of the fourth generation of nuclear reactors , as well as the 9

expansion of the production and use of geothermal energy, can be seen; marking the second energy transition of the century where the region is participant and beneficiary. Strengthening autonomous regionalism and searching for new paradigms for the Latin American society re-thinking the concept of development, with a horizon towards Sumak Kawsay (Buen Vivir) . 10

Generation IV reactors are a set of nuclear reactor designs currently being researched for commercial applications 9

by the Generation IV International Forum. They are motivated by a variety of goals including improved safety, sustainability, efficiency, and cost.

Translates into "good living" rooted in the worldview of the Quechua peoples of the Andes, describes a way of 10

doing things that is community-centric, ecologically-balanced and culturally-sensitive.

4. RECOMMENDATIONSThe multiplication of sustainable energy access programs contributes to regional and subregional implementation of cooperation and technical assistance programs among Latin American and Caribbean countries (OLADE, CANADA PROJECT, 2015). Adopting transparent and participatory decision-making in the energy sector. Implementing the construction of institutional frameworks that allow greater productive processes, linked to each other, favoring the development of competitiveness and integrative capacities (OLADE, 2015).

Among the opportunities for reducing greenhouse gases from energy use, especially in the transportation, industry and electricity generation sectors that are posed by Lucon, et al. (2014), stand out: the creation of incentives and systems to assess and improve efficiency in industries through the use of carbon metrics, increasing synergies between climate and energy policies, as well as processes with national and international policies. In addition, a carbon tax should be included as an instrument to encourage efficiency, in addition to other policy instruments focused on mitigation opportunities. RAUBENHEIMER (2014).

To begin with, prevent new coal plants from going on line. Let's remember that per kWh produced, natural gas emits ~half the CO2 as coal. This is not a footnote, this is a game changer (ARAMBURU, 2015).

Within the non-exclusive corporate strategies to mitigate climate change in energy production are: decarbonization (investment in low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency), energy diversification, risk delegation and evasion of active carbon assets (IEA, 2015).

Establish an integrated socio-environmental analysis of the impacts of energy generation projects, as established by the Energy Expansion Ten-Year Plan 2022, with priority topics such as: indigenous populations, protected areas, aquatic biodiversity, and active vegetation. Incorporating technical and legal-institutional aspects considering the strategic importance of energy security for the country to be evaluated (MME, EPE, 2013).

It is important to keep information on energy potentials always updated, which would help in advancing the sustainable energy agenda, as well as accumulating knowledge as a virtuous cycle, for the analysis of investments and risks, as well as qualifying the regional technical staff (GVces, 2016).

Understand the political, sectoral, supra-sectoral and macroeconomic constraints that keep limited the construction and the use of full economic capacity of the international interconnections, a key factor for the regional integration dynamics.

Research about the application of nuclear technology thorium in the region, as part of a groundbreaking process of technological expansion into the energy leadership in the global picture is necessary, creating new possibilities of international cooperation (PENAGOS; MOLINA, 2015). Nuclear is grouped with renewable energy as the key elements of a low-carbon energy system, along with carbon dioxide capture and storage -CCS (IPCC, 2014).

A technological development integrated by systems such as communication technologies, satellite information, the dynamics of cities and energy systems, is a clear approach for the consolidation of an interconnected and self-sufficient region; it corresponds to governments p facilitate these integrative pathways and control the process.

It is necessary to invest in the regional technical labor, for the production of Latin-American own technology, thus reducing the productive costs of outsourcing; by empowering the regional workforce, especially young people, strengthening employment, study and training opportunities.

5. CONCLUDING REMARKSThe private sector is essential for the implementation and enforcement of new energy regulations, as well as the importance of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) as a strategy to mitigate the risks of a project (transportation, infrastructure, etc.). Providing additional resources for financing, experience, private sector analysis and innovation, as well as a long-term investment perspective among others (IBRD, 2014).

The incorporation of technologies for sustainable development, capacity to meet growing demand, and independence of external variables; are changes consistent with the future as well as the needs of the present, representing an interrelation between people, resources, environment and development (PENAGOS, et al 2014).

A transformational change in the energy sector can be a very long process, reflecting the need to configure both the supply infrastructure and the end use of energy (IEA, 2015).

Without technological changes, the accumulation of energy surpluses will be less dynamic and expanded, which has considerable environmental implications, depending on the technologies adopted (HERMAN, 2010).

The transition to a low carbon economy depends on the current challenges and the appropriate strategy for innovators and investors within a suitable market structure. Government intervention is necessary to create sustainable markets for low carbon technologies, bridging gaps in innovation, research and development, enabling structure and promoting international collaboration (IEA, 2015).

Innovation is important in the economic development of Latin America, since it simply has effects at two levels, on the one hand, increasing the productivity of the current economy, but at the same time it is fundamental for the development of new companies such as technology-based businesses.

According to the WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION (2015), the human influence on climate change leading to global warming is evident; political responses have been directed by international negotiation, but have been characterized as indecisive at the national level, and to date largely ineffective. Nuclear power is rarely recognized as the most significant means to limit the rise in concentrations of greenhouse gases while allowing access to abundant electricity.

Regional nuclear integration contributes to the versatility of the energy matrix as a national security strategy to mitigate dependence on external energy supply. It also provides an opportunity to exercise sovereignty over regional resources and technological independence (PENAGOS, MOLINA, 2015).

To witness the birth of an international project as desired as the Energy Integration in Latin America, it is imperative to create awareness focused on the need for a strong assessment of the current situation; having a high potential for clean energy production, the potential to

lead the global energy market, and thus, strongly contributing to the growth of sustainable development of the planet (PENAGOS et al. 2014).

Latin America's energy integration may be a mechanism for a better geopolitical positioning of the region in the international arena. In addition, building a common energy market is still a challenge to realize the political will that prevails in the region (RUIZ, 2006).

The concept of energy integration goes beyond the liberal conception of commercial and economic unification of energy resources between countries, also takes into account the development and capabilities between states and organizations for the utilization of energy resources in sustainable and efficient way (OLADE b, 2015).

According to OLIVEIRA (2012), in order to guarantee the energy security of a state, the main strategies that can be implemented by the Energy Decision Center are classified as: energy self-sufficiency, diversification of the energy matrix, decentralization of infrastructure and energy innovation. Strategies that in turn are adequately matched to the meet future energy demand, global, political and economic changes, providing an approximation to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from energy production.

There is no single comprehensive solution to the problem of energy supply. On the contrary, each of the individual parts of this challenge must work to achieve the global goal of sustainability, affordable and safe energy for all (World Energy Council, PSI, 2013).

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The analysis was self-authored as a work submission to the EKLA Contest for the International Student Energy Summit 2017, the slides and video of the publication can

be found here:

https://climateactuality.wordpress.com/energy/

Joyce Penagos Mendez

joycenajmaldin@icloud.com