Scenarios and Extreme Events

Ernestine Fu | CEE 129

Presentation Outline

Global Climate Change and Extreme Events

Scenario Planning

Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events UncertaintyMultiple and Compound Extremes Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation

Scenario Hurricane Ernestine on Gulfport

“Climate change will further magnify disaster risk. There is major concern that increased frequency and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events will result in a corresponding increase in the number or magnitude of disasters.”

- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

Rising Frequency of Extreme Events

Severity of Event

Frequencyof event

Rising Frequency of Extreme Events

Severity of Event

Frequencyof event

X

Y1

Rising Frequency of Extreme Events

Severity of Event

Frequencyof event

X

Y1

Y2

Hurricanes: Predicted Increase

Hurricanes: Observed Increase

Solution? Adaptation and Mitigation.

Adaption: reactively adjusting to the impacts of changing climate

Mitigation: attempts to low the process of global climate change by lowering GHG levels in the atmosphere

Scenario:“a story about what

happened in the future”

Issues in Analyzing Extreme Events

1. Uncertainty

2. Multiple and Compound Extremes

3. Impacts Dependent on the Local Situation

Issue: Uncertainty in Data

Issue: Uncertainty in Terminology“Events that are “rare* at a particular place and time of

year.” “Rare” = the highest or lowest 10%.

Hurricanes Floods Storm Surges

Issue: Multiple and Compound Extremes

Issue: Impacts Dependent on Local Situation

Hurricane

Ernestine

on Gulfport

Category 4

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

August 2005

Category 5

175 mph winds

25-28 feet storm surge

1,200 fatalities

$90.9 billion (2011 USD) damage

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Ernestine (Category 4) Impacts

Winds: 131-155 mph | Catastrophic damage

Damage to warehouses

Debris and containers washed inland impact the city and surrounding area

Structural damage to top floors of apartment buildings 

Power outages for weeks to possibly months

Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies destroyed

Very high risk of injury or death to people due to flying objects and falling debris

Gulfport Storm Surge

Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge

Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge

Scenario: Gulfport Storm Surge

There’s

no benefit

to inaction.