schoellhamer iie convention talk.pptx
TRANSCRIPT
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Dr. David Schoellhamer Visiting Fulbright Professor, National Institute of Technology
Karnataka Research Hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Sacramento,
California USA
Adjunct Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of California Davis
http://www.ucdavis.edu/ -
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Question: Over the coming century of global
climate change, how might the local
environment change?
Motivation: Adapt to changes in climatology,
hydrology, coastal processes, fisheries, andagriculture
Modeling challenges: Time and space
domains, downscaling, emissions scenarios,
multidisciplinary, indicators
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Indian Network of Climate Change
Assessment (INCCA)
Developed 2030s scenario for 4 sensitive regions:
Himalayas, North-eastern Region, Western Ghats,
and Coastal Region.
Impact on key climate-dependent economic sectors:
agriculture, water, natural ecosystems and
biodiversity, and human health
18 institutions and 43 scientists
November 2010 report
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Jim Cloern
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hydroclimatology
watershedhydrology
fish
biology
oceanography
environmentalengineering
numerical
modelingdata
analysis
estuarine
ecology
sediment
dynamics
environmentalengineering
About the Authors
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San Francisco Bay
and Watershed
Diversion of drinking
water for 25M (250
lakh) people
Agricultural irrigation$400B/yr ($40000 crore)
economic activity
Drains 40% of California
Habitat for fish and birdsUrbanized estuary
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Global
Circulation
Models
Downscaled
to Region
Watershed Model
Delta Models
Approach
3
Sea Level Golden Gate
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PCM = National Center for Atmospheric Research's Parallel Climate Model 1GFDL = NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab's GFDL CM2.1 model
B1
historical
B1 slowing emissions; moderate warming with PCM
A2accelerating emissions; fast warming with GFDL
Two Scenarios
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these are not predictions!
Results annual mean values
Faster Slower
+ 4 C
+ 1 C
- 250 mmno change
+ 110 cm
+ 89 cm
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- 7 km3 (~ 15%)
no change
- 10%
- 4%
Faster Slower
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+ 2.5 C
+ 0.8
C
+ 2.9 C
+ 1.0 C
+ 4
+ 3
- 25 mg/L
- 26 mg/L
Faster Slower
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Results extreme values per decade
www.water.ca.gov/
goldengatebridge.org
Faster Slower
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FUTURE VISIONS
Trends of increasing sea level, air and water
temperature, salinity intrusion
Trends of decreasing snowmelt and
sediment supply
Uncertainty about changes in precipitation
and runoff (annual variability will remain high)
Todays extremes will become tomorrows
norm
Magnitude of change depends on rate ofglobal warming
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ADAPTATION PLANNING
Environmental conditions beyond the range
of historical observations
Multi-year droughts and extreme floods
Anticipate surprises
Its more than climate change
Project planning geared to future climates,
not todays
Need for adaptation will depend on rate ofclimate change
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Thank you
Dr. Shrihari National Institute of Technology Karnataka
Institution of Engineers, Mangalore Local Centre, and Institute
of Valuers, Mangalore Branch
Institution of Engineers, Environmental Engineering Division