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School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro- poor urban futures May 18/19, 2010 Climate change and adaptation planning Dr. Jake Piper

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Page 1: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Globalisation, climate change and urban

governance: balancing the scales for both

efficient and pro-poor urban futures

May 18/19, 2010

Climate change and adaptation planning

Dr. Jake Piper

Page 2: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Overview

• Comparison UK : Brazil

• National attributes of relevance to CC exposure & adaptation

• Climate change

• Adapting to climate change

• Phases experienced

• Future phases: Barriers and barrier busters

Page 3: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Comparing populations (= pressure on environment)

UK: 59 millionEngland: 49 million – 383/km2SE England: 8 million – 421/km2

England = 54% size of SP state ( UK approx. size of SP state)

• Brazil – 186 million – 22/km2• Sao Paulo state – 38 million – 160/km2

Page 4: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

National attributes of relevance to CC exposure & adaptation

UK BrazilTemperate to boreal climate Temperate to tropical climates

Geophysical stable, long exploited land; v little natural environment

Exploited for less time, larger proportion of “natural” environment

“Mature” economy Fast growing developing economy

Politically stable - ? Has become politically stable

Short of space (pressures) Land rich, but pressures in urban areas

Relatively wealthy (£ and choices) Greater diversity of wealth and choices

Resource poor? Resource rich

Ageing population (median age 39) Young population (median age 29)

Participation in D-making? ?

Established spatial planning system ?

Etc., etc

Page 5: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Comparison of cities by size….largest seven

London 7.2 million

Birmingham 992 000

Leeds 720 000

Glasgow 560 000

Sheffield 512 000

Bradford 467 000

Edinburgh 450 000

Sao Paolo 11.0 m Rio de Janeiro 6.2 m Salvador 3.0 m Brasilia 2.6 mFortaleza 2.5 m Belo Horizonte 2.5 m Curitiba 1.9 m

(43 cities larger than Edinburgh)

Page 6: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Climate change projections: Brazil (Marengo, undated – CREAS project)

Page 7: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Climate change and the UK

School of the Built Environment

•Warmer wetter winters•Hotter drier summers•Unpredictable weather•Rainfall more intense•Risk of more storms•Sea level rise

Page 8: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Developing response to CC

• Awareness of CC

Impact assessment

Mitigation (emissions reduction) Adaptation

-health/comfort-economy, transport-biodiversity

1960-1980

Science evolves EU heatwave (2003)

drought UK 2004/6Floods UK

2007

Whilst recent weather events are not proof of climate change, it is very likely that once climate change is fully apparent it will be accompanied by extreme events.

C capture.. Geo-engg.

Page 9: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Adaptation process

• Climate projections

• Identify impacts of changed climates for receptors

• Identify cumulative and interacting effects

• What measures would alleviate adverse effects or enhance desirable effects?

• What policies would help bring in these measures?

• Monitoring

• Risk assessment

• Enhance projections

(Research: impacts, risks, responses)

Policy development – Policy implementation (Re-evaluate)

Page 10: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Planning for climate change, building resilience

• Early warning systems• “Room for rivers” to reduce flood impacts• Protection of coastline / realignment• Be aware of urban : rural interdependence

(e.g. Retain & extend forests for M & A)• Re-settle people away from coastal and other

hazardous areas e.g. slopes• Protect vulnerable/fragile areas• Enable rainfall to infiltrate / sink in (Rural

washlands; Urban green infrastructure)• Assess location of vital infrastructure, inc.

transport, energy & emergency infrastructure • Community planning• Urban Design, e.g. areas for shade, water for

cooling, buildings with high thermal capacity

• Early warning systems• Provision of shelters• Preparation (food, water,

blankets)• Cool rooms for heat• Focus on poor

School of the Built Environment

Pro-poor issues

Page 11: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Factors contributing to appropriate adaptation

• Knowledge of changes (identification, measurement, understanding)

• Knowledge of environment ( “” “” “”)

• Assessment of impacts (severity, direction)

• International treaty as support/authority

• Political cohesion – acceptance of need to adapt

• Authority and levers for control / participation

• Financial strength

• Economic diversity

• Awareness across society and government

• (hierarchies, institutions, cities & rural areas)

• Research strength

• Good communications across all media

Science

Politics

Economics

Education/society

Page 12: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Motives & motivators for adaptation

• Economic and financial reasons

• Security

• Health

• Environmental and ethical reasons

Barriers to adaptation• Agreement between parties about issues and way forward

• Knowledge

• Technology

• Economic barriers

• Social barriers

• Political barriers

(Trudgill – Barriers to a better environment)

Page 13: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

What is needed - barrier busters: policies, tools, etc.

• Adaptation policies

• Government CC policy by sector and cross-cutting

• Spatial planning policy at all levels

• Incorporation of CC into sectoral policies

• Assessment tools (financial, environmental, health impact , risk…)

• Information – e.g. national and LCLIP

• Also:

• Mitigation policies

• Carbon capture plans

Page 14: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Five “policy options” to be explored by sector (framework suggested by on-going EC policy work)

• Regulation / legislation

• Markets: market-based instruments

• “Soft” actions (communications, governance, collective action)

• Insurance schemes

• R&D

Taking care to avoid maladaptation, i.e. Inefficient use of resources Measures which displace vulnerability Ineffective measures (i.e. designed for risks that do not subsequently occur)

Page 15: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

What constrains us

• Uncertainties (science, planning, responses)• Skills shortages• Resources• Authority to require changes• Political time horizons• Boundaries – e.g. to sectors, admin. units, etc.• Public support?

Page 16: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Green rooftops

Urban tree planting

Increased farmland irrigation

Forest pest control

Sea wall defence

New desalination plants

Large dams

Wind turbines

Low-till cultivation

Afforestation

Biofuels

Improved building insulation

Ex-situ conservation

Win-Win-Win

Lose-Win-Win

Win-Lose-Win

Flood control infrastructure

Species translocation

Win-Lose-Lose

Lose-Win-Lose

Win-Win-Lose

Positive

Forest conservation

NegativeEffect on biodiversity

Source: Paterson, Berry, Araujo, Piper and Rounsevell, 2008 Conservation biology

Mitigation –adaptation - biodiversity

Develop to show efffects on poor?

Page 17: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Page 18: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Market-based instruments (preserve and extend choice)

• Biodiversity offsets, habitat banking• Providing incentives or removing disincentives or perverse

incentives• Reduce “market friction” via subsidy of renewable energy

generation with biodiversity component (e.g. small hydro)• Fiscal/price disincentives (e.g. on sale of land with habitat

value)• “Revolving funds” for properties with high nature conservation

value

Page 19: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Soft actions – governance, guidance, communications

• Codes for biodiversity (e.g. via Codes for Sustainable Homes, and Green Building Council)

• Codes for low energy use – add biodiversity issues?• Recognition/awards (European Green Capital + upgrade)• Skills development (GIS, taxonomy….)• Raising awareness: Natuurkalender, Springwatch• Subsidy for renewable energy use – to include biodiversity-related criteria?• Community engagement e.g. via residents’ groups, wildlife groups, business

and CSR

Page 20: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Local Climate Impacts Profile

• Why do an LCLIP?

• To gather information about current vulnerability to weather and climate as a catalyst to further awareness and action.

• The creation of a Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) has proved to be effective tool for organisations at developing this understanding.

• For local authorities, doing an LCLIP is one way to meet the requirements of NI188, Level 1. See information about the national policy context here.

• Demonstrates not only the potential impacts of climate change but also the extent to which an authority, community or organisation is prepared and able to respond now (i.e. to deal with current weather events). One LCLIP uncovered unplanned costs to a local authority from weather events of £16.4 million over the previous decade (in emergency provisions, insurance claims and road repairs).

Page 21: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Case study: Oxfordshire LCLIP• Aims were (in line with signing of the Nottingham Declaration),

• to assess the likely impacts of climate change on council services and also • To encourage adaptation in the wider community.

• Approach:• Media search• Interviews with council officers (15)• 3 month period, database created of 260 weather related incidents from a 10 year

period, such as:• Flooding on the road networks• Flooding of properties• Crop fires exacerbated by high summer temperatures

• Results: • raised awareness of adaptation internally • gathered substantial evidence that the council was vulnerable to a number of

weather related impacts.• lent weight to adaptation agenda• Identified that the cost associated with weather incidents over a decade was

estimated to be £16.4 million. ( extensively quoted in local press, though often misrepresented as the “cost of climate change”. ) But taken to be an underestimate.

Page 22: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Climate change projections: UK Key findings for South East England, 2050s, medium emissions scenario. Probabilities of change

The wider range is defined as the range from the lowest to highest value of change for all emissions scenarios and all three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

• Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 3.8ºC.

•Under medium emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 5.2ºC.

•Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than –5% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –6% to 6%.

•Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 16%; it is very unlikely to be less than 2% and is very unlikely to be more than 36%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1% to 40%.

•Under medium emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –19%; it is very unlikely to be less than –41% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from –43% to 16%.

• (25 km grid squares)

Page 23: School of the Built Environment Globalisation, climate change and urban governance: balancing the scales for both efficient and pro-poor urban futures

School of the Built Environment

Who must adapt?• Hierarchies of government and other institutions (providing vision and

policy, legislation, regulation, research)• National, regional, local

• Spatial planners: set regional/local policy, bring in spatial plans that control relevant activities – location and design of development, transport, retrofitting of city areas

• Public and private institutions• Sectors (e.g. tourism, manufacturing, health)• Professionals: architects, engineers, etc.• Cities and communities• Individuals

Some general research needs• How we are affected, how our environment is affected• How we exacerbate climate change by our processes (e.g.

procurement, energy use, etc. )• Interactions with other drivers, e.g. population and consumption growth• Effectiveness of potential responses

Consensus?