science for defra: excellence in the application of evidence · science for defra: excellence in...

Science for Defra: excellence in the application of evidence

Defra Science Showcase Session 3

Climate Change and Environmental Quality

Chair: Professor Louise Heathwaite FRSA, FRSB, FRSE

Marine

Chair: Professor Tim Jickells


The first section considers the implications of climate change and changing working practices for environmental quality.The second section explores the use of monitoring and management for the Marine environment.Climate Change and Environmental QualityChair: Louise Heathwaite, Lancaster University How may UK air quality by impacted by a new shale-gas industry? Developing and applying evidence for a preliminary

regional assessment; Roger Timmis, Environment Agency Resilience of the natural environment: science to support climate change adaptation; Mike Morecroft, Natural England Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment; Molly Anderson, DefraMarineChair: Tim Jickells, University of East Anglia The state of our seas: monitoring then, now and in the future; David Righton, Cefas Marine protected areas and evidence needs: identification to management; Beth Stoker, JNCC Delivering evidence in partnership with academia – experience from the Marine Management Organisation; Adam Cook,

MMO


Defra Science Showcase Session 3

Climate Change and Environmental Quality

Chair: Professor Louise Heathwaite FRSA, FRSB, FRSE

Marine


How may a new shale-gas industry

impact UK regional air quality?

Roger TimmisMark Broomfield

Maria Angeles Solera Garcia


Royal Society 29-30 March 2017

Shale Gas

• Reserves in England + Scotland

• Help economy + energy security

• Environmental risks ? e.g. emissions to air ?

• Environment Agency regulates

• Assess risks e.g. regional air pollution

RegionalAir Pollution• Transboundary

pollution over 100s km

• Secondary pollution formed by chemistry

• Nitrogen Oxides, Particulates, Ozone

• Harm to health, crops, ecosystems

Strategic question: Shale impact on regional air quality?

Preliminary answer: Systematic evidence-based study

Study Design• Source – Pathway – Receptor

model for 2030 scenarios

• Compare base case (no shale) with high + low shale growth

• Source: NW England shale emissions (current technology)

• Pathway: hot summer (2006) meteorology (photochemistry)

• Receptor: monitoring sites, regional mapping, cf. standards

High Growth: 2160 wells

Low Growth: 270 wells

Results

• Percent changes in concentrations due to shale

• Change in all UK regions; most

in NW England but small1-10%

• NO2 and Particulates increase; some Ozone decreases

• Particulates increase by ~1% of standard

• NO2 increases up to 10% of standard

• May affect regulation if air-quality already poor

Change in monthly-average

Ozone for high shale growth

Nitrogen

Conclusion: shale + regional air quality

• Shale impacts are small

• But may be significant if already near limit

• Further work: local NO2

• Well-designed studies clarify risks + priorities

• Structured scenarios answer strategic questions

• Evidence is central to clear decision-making

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Isabel_from_ISS.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Isabel_from_ISS.jpg

Resilience of the natural environment:

science to support climate change

adaptation

Mike Morecroft,

Principal Specialist, Climate Change, Natural England

[email protected]

@mike_morecroft

www.gov.uk/natural-england

mailto:[email protected]

National Adaptation Programme 2013

Natural environment theme

Building ecological resilience

Preparing for and

accommodating inevitable

change

Valuing the wider adaptation

benefits the natural

environment can deliver

Improving the evidence base

There is strong evidence that climate

change is affecting UK biodiversity

Morecroft & Speakman, 2015

Climate Change Refugia:

Don’t underestimate resilience

Suggitt et al. (2014) Climate change refugia for the flora and fauna of England. Natural England Commissioned Reports 162

Gentiana verna, Upper Teesdale

Land use interactions with climate change:

Large habitat areas build resilience

In house research and monitoring

National Climate Change

Vulnerability Model

NNR Long Term

Monitoring Network

Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk AssessmentMolly Anderson

Delivery Cycle for the CCRA

Meeting the evidence challenge of the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 17

CCRA evidence deadline

UKCP18 release

CCRA Evidence Report Research Priorities


What will UKCP18 include?

19

Updated projections of sea-level rise

Projections over UK land areas – 3 work strands

Observational data and trends

Summary of UKCP18 data products


Observations

(UK State of the Climate)

Probabilistic Projections Global Projections High resolution

projections

Marine and Coastal

Characteristics Observed trends, long term

cl imatologies and weather

events for the preceding

year.

Updated probability density

functions (PDFs) for the 21st

century. Presented as 30-

year and annual averages.

Single ensemble of ~20

spatially coherent time series

to 2100, selected to explore

the range of future

outcomes. Specific UK focus

for analysis.

High-resolution downscaling

of global projections, at a

sca le that can provide

realistic information on

heavy ra infall events .

Updated sea level rise and

surge projections to 2100

and will include the impacts

of glaciers, ice sheets,

reservoirs and groundwater

as well as thermal expansion.

Model N/A HadCM3, CMIP5, ESM HadGEM3 NWP (used for weather

forecasting)

CMIP5, CS3, Euro-CORDEX

Scale UK UK Global UK UK

Spatial resolution 5km 25km 60km 1.5km, 2.2km or 4km Class A tide gauge sites

Emission scenarios N/A RCP2.6+4.5+6+8.5, plus

SRES A1B to allow direct

comparison

RCP8.5 ensemble (global)

And second lower derived

scenario (tbd) (UK)

RCP8.5 RCP 2.6, 4.5 & 8.5

*This information is correct as of March 2017

Derived products


Delivering CCRA3 is a community effort


Contact:

Molly Anderson

[email protected]



The state of our seas

David Righton

Monitoring then, now and in the

future

Costanza et al., 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services

@DavidRighton

In a paper published in 2014, Robert Costanza and colleagues

estimated that global marine ecosystem services were worth

Earth: Reto Stöckli (based on data from NASA and NOAA)

In 2013, fishing contributed

at first sale and direct jobs.

@DavidRighton

Source: Seafish, Fishing Industry: Key Facts and Information

Overnight stays at the

seaside are the

of the domestic tourism market,

worth

@DavidRighton

Source: Coastal Tourism Academy, Coastal Tourism Summary Report 2016

@DavidRighton

Source: Jennings et al., 2016, Aquatic food security & Seafish, Fishing Industry: Key Facts and Information.

Carbon sequestration by saltmarsh and estuarine

habitat is worth per year in Europe.

@DavidRighton

Source: Luisetti et al., 2013, Valuing the European ‘coastal blue carbon’ storage benefit

UK legislation demands that our seas are

“Clean, Safe, Healthy, Productive, Biologically Diverse”

@DavidRighton

UK Marine Policy Statement

“Monitoring is an intermittent (regular or irregular) series of observations in time, carried out to show the extent of compliance with a formulated standard or degree of deviation from an expected norm”

Brown A. 2000. Habitat monitoring for conservation management and reporting.

@DavidRighton

Future monitoring techniques I: autonomous vehicles

Cefas ‘Lyra’ waveglider

@DavidRighton

Future monitoring techniques II: eDNA

Traditional microscopy techniques for identifying plankton

020

040

060

080

0

Species Clustering

14 13 16 8 201918 1 2 3 12 4 15 5 7 9 6 1711 10

14 13 16 8 20 19 18 1 2 3 12 4 15 5 7 9 6 17 11 10

020

4060

80

LPUE by cluster

BIB

CRE

HAL

JAX

LBE

RJN

TUR

CPR

LIO

LVR

NEP

SBX

SYC

WHE

BRB

BSH

GAG

SBG

SCR

SKH

SMD

ANF

COE

DGS

FLE

GUR

HER

QSC

SAN

SHD

SOL

SQC

WHG

CRW

GRO

LEM

LEZ

LIN

MUR

PLE

RJC

SPR

BLL

COD

CTL

GUG

OCT

PIL

POK

POL

SKA

WIT

DAB

DGX

GUX

HAD

MAC

MUL

RED

RJM

BLI

BSS

DGH

GFB

HKE

RJH

SCE

XXX

TBB effort

Spatial distribution of species Clusters frm VMS data

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2

4748

4950

5152

53

@DavidRighton

Future monitoring techniques III: industry and citizen science

Logbook and VMS data (Kupschus, unpubl.)

STATUSi

WhatWhereWhenWhichWho

STATUSi+1


STATUSj


Assessment

How, Why How, Why

Ecosystem function

Management of marine activities

Status, trend and

process

@DavidRighton

Image credits

@DavidRighton

Cefas images: Lauren Biermann (UK satellite), Simon Armstrong (fishing vessel, scallops, wind turbines), Dave Pearce (Lyra), Rachel Beckett (plankton), Sven Kupschus (fish community structure)

View of the earth: Reto Stöckli (based on data from NASA and NOAA)

Icons in Cefas ‘Evolution on monitoring’ tree: Cezary Lopacinsky (jellyfish), Mohit Arora (waves), Angel Santos Freyta (benthos), Raymond Felix (fish), Rafa Bosch (molecule), Joey Hiller (drinks can), Konrad Michalik (shrimp), Timothy Dilich (microbe), all from the Noun Project.

Marine Protected Areas and evidence

needs: identification to management

Beth Stoker (JNCC)

Sue Ware (Cefas)

Neil Golding (JNCC)

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

Science for Defra: Excellence in the application of evidence

29th March 2017

Marine Protected Areas in the UK

• 293 MPAs (March 2017)

– > 1,200 designated features

• Evidence is critical to each

stage of the MPA

management cycle, but the

type of evidence needed

changes

Identification

Designation

MP

A m

an

agem

en

t cyc

le

Objectives

Monitoring

Assessment

Management

Example: East of Haig Fras MCZ

Identification

Designation

Objectives

Monitoring

Assessment

Management

Identification

Designation

Objectives

Monitoring

Assessment

Management


Identification

Designation

Objectives

Monitoring

Assessment

Management

The General Management Approaches for the

protected features of East of Haig Fras MCZ are:

Moderate energy

circalittoral rock

Recover to favourable

condition

Subtidal coarse

sediments/Subtidal mixed

sediments mosaic

Subtidal sand

Subtidal mud


Challenges

• High number of number of

designated features

• Multi-use MPAs – disentangling the causes of change

• Networks of MPAs

• Application of risk-based decision making

Evidence priorities

• Feature relevant metrics and

indicators

• Evidence to support adaptive management

• Improved understanding of natural

variability

• Improved understanding of

impacts of human activities

Delivering evidence in partnership with

academiaExperience from the Marine Management Organisation

Adam Cook

29th March 2017

What does the MMO do?

Marine licensing

Marine nature conservation management

Fisheries management

EMFF administration

Compliance and

enforcementMarine

Planning

Challenges of partnerships

Lot’s of questions that need answering

MMO

• What is out there

• Who is doing (or planning) relevant work

Academics

• What does the MMO do

• What is wanted (and what isn’t!)

• How will it be used

• Why should I engage

• Strategy part I: 2015 – 2020

– What the MMO does

– What scientific evidence the MMO

uses

– Where this evidence comes from

– How it is applied

– What more we need (themes)

• Strategy part 2: 2015 – 2020

– How will we deliver

• Knowledge Exchange

• Partnership

• Influencing research of others

MMO Evidence Strategy

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/evidence-strategy-for-the-marine-management-organisation-

mmo

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/evidence-strategy-for-the-marine-management-organisation-mmo

• One for each of the 60 evidence

requirements

– Requirement detail

– Aims and objectives

– Related requirements

– How it will be used

– External interest

– Existing evidence and current activity

– How it will be delivered and by when

MMO Evidence Delivery Plans

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/evidence-register-and-reports#delivery-plans

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/evidence-register-and-reports#delivery-plans

MMO-NERC KE Fellowships

• Science Alignment workshop revealed lots of activity and

lack of awareness

• Science-Management “ambassadors” needed

• 2 fellows equivalent to 1.2 FTE funded by NERC

• Successes in first 6 months

– New contacts

– New projects

– PhD students?

– More KE Fellows?

Questions that needed addressing

Evidence Strategy

MMO

• What is out there

• Who is doing (or planning) relevant work

Academics

• What does the MMO do

• What is wanted (and what isn’t!)

• How will it be used

• Why should I engage

Delivery Plans KE Fellows

Thank you and any questions?

[email protected]


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