science roadmap

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A Science

Roadmap forFood andAgriculture

A Science

Roadmap forFood andAgriculture

Prepared by the

Association of Public andLand-grant Universities (AsPsLsU)

Experiment StationCommittee on

Organization and Policy (ESCOP)Science and Technology Committee

November 2010


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A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture p

About this Publication

To reference this publication, please use the following citation:

Association of Public and Land-grant Universities, Experiment Station

Committee on Organization and PolicyScience and TechnologyCommittee, A Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture,November 2010.

To obtain additional copies contact:Daniel [email protected]

Cover photo: FreeFoto.com

Cover and document design: Diane Clarke


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Contents

n Preamble v

n Foreword vii

n Introduction 1

n Grand Challenge 1 9We must enhance the sustainability, competitiveness, and protability of U.S. food

and agricultural systems.

n Grand Challenge 2 21We must adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change on food, feed, ber, and

fuel systems in the United States.

n Grand Challenge 3 29We must support energy security and the development of the bioeconomy from

renewable natural resources in the United States.

n Grand Challenge 4 37We must play a global leadership role to ensure a safe, secure, and abundant food

supply for the United States and the world.

n Grand Challenge 5 45We must improve human health, nutrition, and wellness of the U.S. population.

n Grand Challenge 6 55We must heighten environmental stewardship through the development of sustainable

management practices.

n Grand Challenge 7 67We must strengthen individual, family, and community development and resilience.

n Appendix A 81Crosswalking Grand Challenges

n Appendix B 85Science Roadmap Contributors

n Glossary 89


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I am honored to have been able to provide oversight to the important task of preparinga Science Roadmapfor food and agricultural research at our land-grant institutions. Manyoutstanding scientists within our community contributed to this document. This processbegan with some 250 scientists participating in a Delphi survey that helped to identifyresearch priorities to which our research community could make signicant contributions.

Once a consensus was formed, seven challenges emerged, and writing teams were assignedto each challenge area. More than 80 scientists were involved in the preparation and reviewof the seven grand challenge white papers.

The overall document was also reviewed by two long-time leaders in the land-grantsystemDrs. Colin Kaltenbach and Daryl Lundand I want to express my appreciationfor their insights and suggestions, and for their long-term guidance on many issues. Finally,my sincere thanks go to our professional editor, Diane Clarke, for her expertise in preparingthe nal report.

Given the broad and enthusiastic participation in the development of this Science Roadmap,I am condent that it will provide critical guidance to academic research administrators

and to our federal and private sector partners regarding research directions over the nextdecade. These efforts will make a difference for the future of our nation relative to howwe respond to the seven Grand Challenges. We recognize there are redundancies anddifferences of opinion among the various sections of the report; this is the nature ofscience. While the Roadmap does not prescribe solutions, it does identify direction and

course. More importantly, it is a basis for substantive discussion of concepts associatedwith, and approaches to addressing, societal issues as they relate to the food, agricultural,and environmental sciences.

I want to thank the many individuals who participated and volunteered time, creativity,and energy throughout this project. Dr. Travis Park of Cornell and other members ofthe ESCOP Social Sciences Subcommittee provided early guidance to the process usedto develop the project. I also want to thank my fellow members of the ESCOP Scienceand Technology Committee who directly contributed to the project. Finally, this editionof the Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculturewould not have been completed withoutthe coordination and leadership of Dan Rossi and his fellow Executive Directors of theregional associations of state agricultural experiment stations, including Carolyn Brooks,Mike Harrington, Arlen Leholm, and Eric Young. Their support for this endeavor wasessential.

Bill RavlinChair, ESCOP Science and Technology CommitteeSeptember 2010

Preamble


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The last Science Roadmap for the land-grant university system was prepared nearly10 years ago. There have been many changes in societal needs and priorities over thepast decade. The issues of climate change, energy and food security, environmental andeconomic sustainability, and globalization have moved to the forefront of concerns for thepublic and for policy makers in the United States. These issues are highly interdependent,and any attempt to address them will require systematic and science-based solutions. Majorinvestments in scientic research as it relates to food and energy production, utilization

of natural resources, and development of individuals, families, and communities will benecessary for the United States to remain competitive, sustainable, and socially responsive

to its citizens and the citizens of the world.

This Science Roadmapis very timely and will be an important resource not only for ouracademic leadership but also for our public and private partners and advocates. It has beendeveloped through a broad consensus of some of our best scientic leaders. As a roadmap,

it does not provide direct solutions to problems; rather, it lays out well-thought-out pathsthe scientic community can take to reach potential solutions. I am very excited about this

major accomplishment and am looking forward to development of the next steps that willbe necessary to operationalize its recommendations.

The land-grant university system is indebted to the many faculty members who contributedto this endeavor. Their insights and commitment to the land-grant mission are clearlyrepresented in this document. I thank them and the members of the ESCOP Science and

Technology Committee for the contribution of their time and expertise to this project.

Clarence WatsonChair, ESCOPSeptember 2010

Foreword


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Introduction

1Melissa D. Ho.Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension: Issues and Background (Congressional

Research Service Report for Congress). Washington, D.C., January 6, 2010.

A recently-released Congressional ResearchService Report for Congress1on agriculturalresearch, education, and extension beginswith the following statement:

Public investment in agricultural researchhas been linked to productivity gains, andsubsequently to increased agricultural andeconomic growth. Studies consistentlynd high social rates of return on average

from public agricultural research, widelyreported to be in the range of 20%-60%annually. Advances in the basic and appliedagricultural sciences, such as disease-resistant crop varieties, efcient irrigationpractices, and improved marketingsystems, are considered fundamental toachievements in high agricultural yields,increases in farm sector protability, highercompetitiveness in international agriculturaltrade, and improvements in nutrition andhuman health. Advances in agriculturalresearch, education, and extension havebeen critical factors affecting the hugeagricultural productivity gains seen in

the United States after World War II.Agricultural productivity grew on averageby about 2%-3% percent annually duringthe 1950s through the 1980s, but hasdeclined in recent decades.

The report suggests that the recent declinein agricultural productivity gains is at least inpart due to declining public investments inagricultural research.

This Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculturedescribes a challenging and excitingfuture for the nations land-grant colleges

of agriculture and state agriculturalexperiment stations (SAES). It identies

future directions for research in food andagricultural sciences and makes the casefor new investments in research to addressthe following increasingly complex andpervasive issues:

An interdependent global economy

Climatevariability Demands on the environment and the

natural resource base Renewable bioenergy sources and energy

security Health care costs Trends toward obesity

Hunger and food security for the worlds

population Challenges to individual, family, and

community well-being

A previous Science Roadmap for Agriculturewas developed in 19981999 and publishedin 2001. It was based on input fromdisciplinary experts within the land-grantsystem. That Roadmapwas updated in 2006,and key challenges and objectives werereviewed again in 2008 based on input fromDeans and Directors. The 2001 Roadmapprovided critical guidance to decision

makers in academia and in federal agenciesthat fund agricultural research.

Many of the issues identied in the

2001 Roadmap persist today. However,the context in which these issues occurhas changed. Rapid advances in science,changes in societal needs, a changingbudgetary environment, and increasingglobal economic and environmentalinterdependence justify the comprehensivedevelopment of a new Roadmap. The titlefor the new Roadmap includes the wordfood to better reect the broader mission

of the land-grant system, one that goeswell beyond the traditional denition of

production agriculture. It highlights theimportance of critical issues such as foodsecurity, food safety, and obesity.

Agriculture in the context of

this document is dened in itsbroadest sense and includesfood production and associatedactivities; natural resourcesincluding forests, rangelands,wetlands, water, and wildlife; andthe aecting social, cultural, andenvironmental factors.


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This new Roadmap reects the views of theactive land-grant scientic community. The

process for developing the Roadmapwasinclusive, bottom-up, and comprehensiveof the issues being addressed by the land-grant system. While it focuses on researchpriorities, it acknowledges the educational

context in which those priorities will beextended to the American public.

The goals of this current Roadmap are to: Chart the major directions of agricultural

science over the next 5 to 10 years. Dene the needs and set the priorities

for research. Provide direction to decision makers

for planning and investing resources infuture program areas.

Support advocates of the food and

agricultural research and education

system. Support marketing of the SAES system.

Facilitate the building of partnerships for

a stronger coalition to solve problems.

n ConceptualFramework

Balancing Research and its Impacts on

Society.The land-grant university system,through their colleges of agriculture,Agricultural Experiment Stations, and

Cooperative Extension Services, has along tradition of solving societal problemsby balancing strong science with benets

and consequences to society. It can doso because it has the broad disciplinaryexpertise to address both the bench-scienceand human dimensions of issues.

This Roadmapcapitalizes on thiscapacity. It directs investments into bothfundamental and translational research.The translational research is integratedwith teaching and outreach to effectively

address societal needs. For maximumimpact the research must be integratedbeyond traditional outreach and throughto commercialization. Further, strongscience needs to serve as the basis forsound agricultural and natural resourcepolicy. It can do so if it is produced in anenvironment that recognizes its impactsbeyond the research laboratory, greenhouse,or eld. Both research and education must

also be sensitive to the factors that inuence

adoption, including the scale dependenceof new technologies.

Taking a Global View and a Systems

Approach in Existing and Future Research.ThisRoadmap reects comprehensive thinking

about the future of agricultural sciences.However, it is not an exhaustive descriptionof all agricultural research currently beingconducted at land-grant institutions. Manycurrent productive research programsneed to be continued and sustained. TheRoadmapestablishes a global view of issuesthat includes multiple dimensionse.g.,the natural sciences and the environmental,economic, and social dimensions. Researchpriorities are framed in the context ofsustainability, including economic efciency,

environmental compatibility, and social

acceptability. In many cases, a systemsapproach will be necessary to address themultiple dimensions and interrelationsamong the variables.

Framing the Needs and Identifying theGrand Challenges.This Roadmapis framedaround the following societal needs: The need for U.S. food and agricultural

producers to be competitive in a globalenvironment.

The need for food and agricultural

systems to be economically,

environmentally, and socially sustainable. The need for U.S. agriculture to adapt toand contribute to the mitigation of theeffects of climate variability.

The need to enhance energy security and

support a sustainable bioeconomyinthe United States.

The need for safe, healthy, and

affordable foods. The need to address global food security

and hunger. The need to be good stewards of the

environment and natural resources. The need for strong and resilient

individual, families, and communities. The need to attract and develop the next

generation of agricultural scientists.

These needs are reected in a series of

grand challenges facing society. For eachgrand challenge, a series of specic research

priorities was identied. However, the

grand challenges are highly interdependent,


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Introduction

and many of the research priorities maycontribute to more than one of thechallenge areas. It is also important to notethat the grand challenges and correspondingresearch priorities cut across geographicboundaries. Land-grant university researchadministrators constantly need to strike a

balance among local, regional, national, andglobal research priorities.

n The RoadmapProcess

IDENTIFYING CHALLENGE AREAS AND

RESEARCH PRIORITIES

In the winter of 2009, the ExperimentStation Committee on Organization andPolicy (ESCOP), which serves as the

governing body of the Experiment StationSection of theAssociation of Publicand Land-grant Universities, decidedto initiate a new Science Roadmap. The taskof developing the Roadmapwas assignedto the ESCOP Science and TechnologyCommittee. The Committee met jointlyin March of 2009 with the Social ScienceSubcommittee and prepared a proposalto initiate development of the Roadmapthrough the use of the Delphi process foridentifying and conrming grand challenge

areas and respective research objectives.The Delphi process gathers the ideas ofexperts and moves them and their ideas toconsensus. The Science and TechnologyCommittee received approval to engageDr. Travis Park of Cornell University toconduct the survey process and analyze thedata.

ESCOP Chair Steve Pueppke sent a letterto Deans and Directors of Research,Extension, and Academic Programs inthe land-grant system, requesting theirparticipation and asking for the nominationof up to ve researchers or Extension

educators from their institutions toparticipate in the process. The participatingresearchers and educators were to havethe perspective, experience, and expertiseto provide quality input about identifyinggrand challenges and research prioritiesfor the next 10 years within each of thechallenge areas. A total of 457 individualswere nominated from a broad array ofinstitutions and disciplines.

Participants were asked to complete fourrounds of Delphi surveying regardingfuture directions for agricultural researchover the next 5 to 10 years. Usinginformation from the previous Roadmapasthe starting point, participants were asked

to identify new research priorities andamend current priorities. The rst three

rounds involved participants responses toproposed research priorities presented ina summated rating scale format in which5 equaled strongly agreeand 1 equaledstrongly disagree. The nal round consisted

of a dichotomousyes-noformat, in whichrespondents answered the question ofwhether or not to include each particularproposed research priority in the updatedRoadmap.

The rst round was initiated on June 10,and 264 individuals participated. More than100 research priorities were suggested byrespondents during the rst three rounds.

The fourth and nal round was completed

on August 10 and included 246 participantsA total of 13 grand challenge areas and 64research priorities were identied.

Recognizing the need to further focus thechallenge areas, the ESCOP Science andTechnology Committee analyzed the 13challenges and performed a crosswalkof

these with agricultural research challengeareas identied by other organizations andagencies. (A summary of this crosswalkprocess is presented in Appendix A.) Asa result of this process, a consensus wasformed around the seven grand challengesfor food and agriculture presented in thisRoadmap.

IDENTIFYING HOW SCIENCE CAN

CONTRIBUTE

Having identied the seven challenge areas

and associated research needs through the

inclusive process described above, it wasthen necessary to analyze these areas andidentify how science can contribute to themFor each challenge area, it was necessaryto frame the issue, explain its importance,assess current capacity and science gaps,identify research needs and priorities, anddescribe the expected outcomes of newresearch investments.


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Teams of key scientists from the land-grantsystem were assigned the task of preparingshort white papers for each of the challengeareas. These scientists are leaders in theirrespective disciplines but also broadthinkers who understand the larger picture.Members of the ESCOP Science andTechnology Committee participated onthe teams to help provide coordinationto the overall effort. Finally, the regionalresearch Executive Directors providedadditional support and coordination to theteams. The names of the approximately50 research scientists and administratorswho participated in the preparation ofthese white papers are listed in AppendixB. The white papers were reviewed byadditional scientists to insure accuracy andcompleteness and were then integrated into

a comprehensive document. The documentwas reviewed by the ESCOP leadershipin July 2010 and then by the ExperimentStation Research Directors at their annualmeeting in September 2010.

The following summarizes the sevenchallenge areas and their associated researchpriorities that have been identied for this

new Science Roadmap for Food and Agriculture.

n The Seven Grand

ChallengesChallenge 1: We must enhance thesustainability, competitiveness,and protability of U.S. food andagricultural systems.

Agricultural and food production systemsare increasingly vulnerable to risingenergy costs, loss of key fertilizer sources(e.g., phosphorus deposits), and climatevariability. We need new approaches forecological management and more energy-efcient agricultural practices to meet

food needs, provide sufcient economicreturns to producers, and deliver multipleenvironmental benets. Our areas of

scientic focus should be:

Developing protable agriculturalsystems that conserve and recycle waterthrougho innovative methods to capture and

store rainfall and runoffo use of impaired waters for irrigationo development of new crop varieties

with enhanced water-use efciency

o increased productivity of rain-fedagricultural systems

o development of livestock grazingsystems that have increased exibility

and resiliency to drought Developing institutional mechanisms

that create incentives for sharingagricultural water and that increasepublic support for balancing therequirements for food production on theone hand and the life-quality issues ofsociety on the other

Developing new plant and animal

production systems, products, and usesto increase economic return to producers

Improving the productivity of organic

and sustainable agriculture Improving agricultural productivity by

sustainable means, considering climate,

energy, water, and land use challenges

Challenge 2: We must adapt to andmitigate the impacts of climatechange on food, feed, ber, and fuelsystems in the United States.

The impacts of climate change and climatevariability on agriculture, food systems,and food security will have socioeconomic,environmental, and human healthimplications. Public and private decisionmakers need new technologies, policy

options, and information to transformagriculture into an industry that is moreresilient and adaptive to climate variabilityand climate change. Our areas of scientic

focus should be: Improving existing and developing new

models for use in climate variabilityand change studies; addressing carbon,nitrogen, and water changes in responseto climate; assessing resource needsand efciencies; identifying where

investments in adaptive capacity will bemost benecial; and addressing both

spatial and temporal scale requirementsfor agricultural decision making Developing economic assessments to

provide more accurate estimates ofclimate change impacts and the potentialcosts and benets of adaptation, and to

validate and calibrate models Incorporating advances in decision

sciences that could improve uncertaintycommunication and the design ofmitigation and adaptation strategies

Developing new technologies, including


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social networking tools, for moreeffective communication to selectedtarget audiences

Identifying appropriate policies to

facilitate both mitigation and adaptation,and identifying how these policiesinteract with each other and with other

policies

Challenge 3: We must support energysecurity and the development of thebioeconomy from renewable naturalresources in the United States.

To meet theincreasing demands of agrowing world population, we must providerenewable energy and other potentialbioproducts in an efcient, environmentally-

sustainable, and economically-feasiblemanner. Research is needed to ensure the

vibrancy, resiliency, and protability ofour agricultural system and to secure neweconomic opportunities resulting from theproduction of energy, fabrics, polymers,and other valuable chemicals in the formof renewable bioproducts from agriculturalmaterials. Our areas of scientic focus

should be: Developing technologies to improve

production-processing efciency of

regionally-appropriate biomass intobioproducts (including biofuels)

Developing agricultural systems that

utilize inputs efciently and create fewerwaste products

Assessing the environmental,

sociological, and economic impactsof the production of biofuels andcoproducts at local and regional levelsto ensure sustainability

Expanding biofuel research with respect

to non-arable land, algae, pest issues thatlimit biofuel crop yields, and emissionsof alternative fuels

Restructuring economic and policy

incentives for growth of the next-

generation domestic biofuels industry

Challenge 4: We must play a globalleadership role to ensure a safe,secure, and abundant food supply forthe United States and the world.

Rapid increases in the worlds population,climate change, and natural disasters willchallenge the use of natural resources

and necessitate concomitant increasesin food production, nutritional quality,and distribution efciencies. New

scientic knowledge that enhances food

commodities, minimizes contamination,ensures a secure food supply, and supportseffective and reasonable regulatory policieswill be needed. Our areas of scientic focusshould be: Developing technologies and breeding

programs to maximize the genomicpotential of plants and animals forenhanced productivity and nutritionalvalue

Identifying plant compounds that

prevent chronic human diseases (e.g.,cancer), and developing and encouragingmethods to enhance or introduce theseplants and compounds into the foodsystem

Developing effective methods toprevent, detect, monitor, control,trace the origin of, and respond topotential food safety hazards, includingbioterrorism agents, invasive species,pathogens (foodborne and other), andchemical and physical contaminantsthroughout production, processing,distribution, and service of food cropsand animals grown under all productionsystems

Developing food supply and

transportation systems and technologies

that improve the nutritional values,diversity, and health benets of foodand that enhance preservation practices,safety, and energy efciency at all scales,

including local and regional Decreasing dependence on chemicals

that have harmful effects on people andthe environment by optimizing effectivecrop, weed, insect, and pathogenmanagement strategies

Challenge 5: We must improvehuman health, nutrition, and wellness

of the U.S. population.

Rapidly escalating health care costs, rates ofobesity, and diet-related diseases are issuesof highest national concern. We need asystematic and multidisciplinary approach tounderstanding the role of healthy foods andlifestyle in preventing, mitigating, or treatingobesity and chronic diseases, includingdiabetes, arthritis, and certain cancers. Ourareas of scientic focus should be:


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Investigating the potential of nutritional

genomics in personalized preventionor delay of onset of disease and inmaintenance and improvement of health

Identifying and assessing new and more

effective nutrient delivery systems formicronutrients and antioxidants

Identifying, characterizing, and

determining optimal serving size andfrequency of intake for health benets

of the consumption of specic foods

containing bioactive constituents Developing community-based

participatory methods that identifypriority areas within communities,including built environments, thatencourage social interaction, physicalactivity, and access to healthy foodsespecially fruits and vegetablesand thatcan best prevent obesity in children and

weight gain in adults Understanding factors, including

biological and psychological stresses, thatcontribute to chronic diseases and theaging processes

Challenge 6: We must heightenenvironmental stewardship throughthe development of sustainablemanagement practices.

Management decisions made by agriculturallandowners and producers impact not

only the food, ber, ornamental plants,and fuel products of agriculture but alsoecosystem goods and services, such asnutrient cycling, the circulation of water,regulation of atmospheric composition,and soil formation. Research emphasismust be placed on the interaction betweenagricultural production practices and theirregional and global impacts. Our areas ofscientic focus should be: Assessing the capacity of agricultural

systems to deliver ecosystem services,including trade-offs and synergies among

ecosystem services Reducing the level of inputs andimproving the resource use efciency of

agricultural production Enhancing internal ecosystem services

(e.g., nutrient cycling, pest control, andpollination) that support productionoutcomes so that chemical inputs can bereduced

Developing ecologically-sound livestock

and waste management productionsystems and technologies

Developing systems-oriented and

science-based policy and regulation forsustainable agricultural systems

Challenge 7: We must strengthenindividual, family, and communitydevelopment and resilience.

Factors such as globalization, climatechange, rapid changes in technology,demographic changes, and new familyforms and practices are resulting inincreased pressures on todays families.Stress is especially severe among vulnerablepopulations, including many living in ruralcommunities. Rigorous research mustguide the development of a strong and

resilient rural America. This research mustbe balanced and must focus on the tiesbetween community viability and familyresilience. It must build understanding ofthe adjustments occurring in rural areas andthe consequences of these changes. Ourareas of scientic focus should be:

Understanding the relative merits

of people-, sector-, and place-basedstrategies and policies in regionaleconomic development and improvingthe likelihood that rural communitiescan provide supportive environments

for strengthening rural families andspurring a civic renewal among people,organizations, and institutions

Modeling of poverty risks and

outcomes to disentangle the inuences

of characteristics of poor individualsfrom the inuences of their families,

communities, and other organizationaland institutional factors

Understanding how local food systems

actually work, particularly for smallproducers and low-income consumers,and how local food productioncontributes to the local economy, tosocial and civic life, and to the naturalenvironment

Assessing the role of broadband and the

accelerated investment being made inbroadband penetration in rural Americaas a community economic developmentstrategy

Understanding the links among

individual behavior, communityinstitutions, and economic, social, andenvironmental conditions


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n Conclusion

This new Science Roadmap for Foodand Agriculturewill be essential in itscontribution to fullling the land-grant

mission to extend cutting-edge researchto solve critical problems for the public

good. It establishes a benchmark for futuredialogue around these crucial societalchallenges. It provides a justication for

continued and even expanded publicinvestment in research in these GrandChallenge areas over the next 10 years.


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n Framing the Issue

The achievement of sustainability, inbroad terms, requires striking a balance

among social, environmental, andeconomic dimensions to navigate the manychallenges that will be outlined below. Thisconcept is illustrated in the EcologicalParadigm (Figure 1), which was adoptedby the College of Food, Agricultural, andEnvironmental Sciences at The Ohio StateUniversity to visualize the strength derivedfrom the collaborative interrelationshipsamong production efciency, economic

viability, social responsibility, andenvironmental compatibility from localto global scales. Overlooking or omittingconsideration of these interdependencies in

addressing any one of these dimensions willnot provide sustainable pathways.

Sustainable agriculture is neither aphilosophical position nor a specic set

of practices. Rather, it is a national andglobal imperative. Although denitions of

sustainability abound, common elementsinclude 1) social, environmental, andeconomic dimensions are thoroughlyconsidered and addressed in a balancedmanner, and 2) relevant time scales spangenerations into the future. Given the

degree of complexity that comes withmultiple dimensions, and with time framesbeyond the careers of most scientists, werequire scientic approaches that are based

in an understanding of system behaviorand long-term change and that deal withuncertainty and unpredictable changes inthe environment (Holling 2001). Moreover,beyond static sustainability, agriculturalsystems must also have resiliencei.e., theability to adapt to unpredictable changes

Grand Challenge 1

in the social, political, natural, and physicalenvironments (Folke et al. 2003). Thiskind of resilience requires anticipatingthe possibility that the environment could

change in unpredictable ways to the extentthat existing agricultural productionsystems would no longer be capable ofproviding the needs of future generations.Adaptation to such drastic changes wouldneed to be based on all available science andtechnology (Holling et al. 2002). Assuringthe resilience of agriculture thus requiresincreasing diversity in terms of bothhuman knowledge and biology/genetics toaugment and improve the array of buildingblocks needed to develop new capabilities.The next several paragraphs highlight someof the specic challenges and needs with

regard to sustainability, competitiveness,and protability of food and agricultural

systems in the United States.

Environmental challenges to protability

include dwindling cheap fossil fuel supplies,on which current agricultural systems arevery dependent, and a changing climate,with higher average temperatures and, inmany places, less water. Even more criticalto protability are the expected greater

extremes in temperature and precipitation,as well as the ongoing struggle to avoid

degrading soil and water resources, all ofwhich can affect agricultural productivity.In addition, the realities of higher energycosts and the need for food security atcontinental scales are running counterto recent extremes in globalization ofthe economy: for any continent, foodsecurity, or at least a balance between foodexports and imports, is a more likely pathto sustainability than reliance on distantand increasingly unreliable sources of this

11We must enhance the sustainability,competitiveness, and protability of U.S. food andagricultural systems.

Figure 1. The Ecological Paradigm.

Economic

Viability

SocialR

esp

onsib

ility

EnvironmentalCompatibility Produc

tion

Ef

cien

cy


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Grand Challenge 1

basic necessity of life. Given dwindlingsupplies of cheap transportation fuel, agrowing societal emphasis on localizationof food systems, and the need forincreased self reliance for food at local toregional scales, more opportunities existfor new and sustainable economic activity

in locally-focused agriculture than incontinuous competition for global exports.In addition, a key impact of investing inlocal food systems is the benecial social

dimension of reintegrating agricultureinto culture, with greater understandingand appreciation among consumers forwhat it takes to produce food and a greaterunderstanding among producers of whatpeople really want and need. Fostering andmaintaining viable communities aroundfarming is a current challenge and keyingredient for sustainable and protable

food and agricultural systems. The roleof protability is critical for farms of all

sizes in order to develop food systems thatsustain the health of communities, thenation, and natural resources while meetingthe many other challenges of this Roadmap.

Demographic trends clearly indicate thatthe global population is becoming moreurbanized as well as more concentratedin coastal communities, and these coastalcommunities are more vulnerable to severeweather, rising sea levels, and a lack of

fresh water. These trends are accompaniedby continued global population growth,with expectations that we will reach apopulation of 9 billion globally and 440million in the United States by 2050.Inevitably, these demographic shifts willlead to increased demand for food, energy,water, and sanitation infrastructure tomeet societys needs and prevent furtherenvironmental degradation. Meanwhile,the urban and ecosystemdemands ofpopulation growth will continue to movewater away from agricultural use, increasingproduction vulnerability and reducing ourability to sustainably meet future globalfood needs.

The dramatic spike in world food prices andthe resulting food riots in 2008 brought intosharp focus not only the interconnectednature of the global economy but also thefragile balance that exists between foodsupply and demand on the one hand andthe threat of hunger on the other. However,

the food price increases provided onlytemporary reprieve for American farmers,who on average continue to earn loweconomic returns. Recent data indicate acontinued hollowing out of agriculturalproducers in the middlethose farmerswith annual farm sales of more than $2,500

but less than $1 million (Figure 2).

This trend has important implications notonly for the farmers themselves but also forthe communities in which they once livedand farmed and thus supported a rangeof thriving local businesses. Even as totalfarm numbers continue at a gradual (albeitslowing) rate of decline, in recent decadesthe nation has been facing the paradoxof both rising food insecurity and hungeramong vulnerable populations alongsidevery high obesity rates. While the present

unprecedented level of food insecurityin the United States and the attendantdemands on public programs such as theU.S. Department of Agricultures (USDA)Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program(SNAP) may be the passing result of thecurrent recession, and while rising adult(but not child or minority) obesity rates areprojected to stabilize (Basu 2009), it is clearthat the average American diet has becomeless than optimal. In particular, the human,social, and economic costs of obesity arestaggering.

The concomitant issues of price, availabilityand quality of food and ber launched the

term sustainable agriculture in the late1980s. Today, the concept of sustainabilityhas matured to become an integral part ofthe agricultural mainstream. Its terminologyand research information ow across thelandscape, providing fodder for eld days,

conferences, and the day-to-day work ofproducing the nations food, ber, fuel,

and owers. In the last 20 years, State

Agricultural Experiment Station andUSDA-Agricultural Research Service(ARS) projects containing references tosustainability, as recorded on the USDA-National Institute of Food and Agriculture(NIFA) Current Research InformationSystem (CRIS), have grown from lessthan 50 to more than 7,510. In addition,the USDA-NIFA Sustainable AgricultureResearch and Education (SARE) programhas funded more than 3,000 competitiveresearch and education grants nationwide

Sustainability is more than abuzzword. It involves:

n Enhancing environmentalquality and the natural

resource base upon which theagricultural economy depends

n Enhancing ecient useof nonrenewable and on-farm resources and, whereappropriate, integrating naturalbiological cycles and controls

n Sustaining the economicviability of farm operations andthe entire agricultural industry

n Improving the quality of life forfarmers, ranchers, and societyas a whole

n Providing for adaptivemanagement that can meetclimatic changes or othermegatrends


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Grand Challenge 1

to producers, scientists, and agricultural

support professionals. The resultingtechniques and practices have, in turn, beencommunicated to other producers andagricultural professionals. An exponentialspread of new knowledge has resulted, withnumerous sustainable benets, including

improved soil, increased adoption ofintegrated pest management (IPM), reducedpesticide use, higher prot margins, cleaner

and more abundant water, stronger localcommunities, environmentally friendly pestcontrol, improved marketing, and a host ofbiological cycles and processes that reducecostly inputs into agricultural operations.

In spite of these advances, there is anever-increasing need for further researchthat centers on the sustainable use oflimited high-quality cropland, limited watersupplies, critical crop nutrients, and limitedenergy supplies. There is also a need forresearch that focuses on preserving andoptimizing the genetic resources of plantand animal systems. In addition, moreattention must be paid to the off-farmimpacts of research-based managementpractices. Specically, cutting-edge research

must be centered upon the basic principles

of sustainability in its broadest sense.

n Current Capacity andScience Gaps

Agriculture needs to be analyzed by lookingat the whole system, since agricultureconsists of many interlinked physical,biological, economic, and human variables.

For example, rather than focusing on theefciency of production systems entirely

in terms of the labor input required, werely increasingly on methods such as lifecycle analysis, which can be employedto evaluate the sustainability of differentagricultural production, processing, and

distribution systems with respect to theirtotal energy demands and the likelihoodof meeting these demands in the future.Likewise, analyzing water use and land usechanges on a global scale, as well as theirimpacts on both the global food systemand biodiversity, must be a key componentof evaluating sustainability. Thesesystem-level approaches are necessaryto effectively evaluate how agriculturalproduction systems can and should respondto various population growth scenariosand future food needs. Additionally, such

approaches must be available to evaluateand balance multiple and diverse foodproduction systems (both centralized anddecentralized), using either economies ofscope or economies of scale as the driversfor efcient production. This balance

will require well-articulated strategies andtechniques for analyzing, describing, andquantifying the many trade-offs inherent insuch complex systems with their multiplebenets and costs to various constituencies.

The success of agricultural systems has

traditionally been analyzed by employinga narrow focus on productivity alone,based on current policy and energy andlabor costs, and utilizing economic returnsas the key metric. In order to keep upwith the rapid pace of environmentalchange, and given the fundamentally localnature of agriculture, better approachesand techniques for managing the wholeknowledge system are needed. Theseapproaches and techniques must include noonly scientic methods for generating new,

evidence-based knowledge, but they must

also capture practitioners tacit and localknowledge. Despite the general recognitionof the value of holistic and systemsapproaches for evaluating agriculture, thedata and analytical tools for evaluating,comparing, and developing agriculturalsystems as combinations of interlinkedphysical, biological, and social variableshave not been well developed. Agriculturalknowledge continues to accumulate throughsingle-discipline-based research, with less

Figure 2. (USDA 2007 Census of

Agriculture; adjusted for farm price

ination.)

Change in Farm Numbers by Sales Category, 19972007

Agriculture consists of manyinterlinked physical, biological,economic, and human variables.


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emphasis on well-reasoned and multi-and interdisciplinary strategies aimed atunderstanding complex system dynamics.Meanwhile, system-oriented research toolscurrently being developed in engineering,natural resource, and social science elds

are continually improving and can provide

excellent resources if they are adapted andfocused to benet agriculture. For example,

analyses of systems in terms of energy andlife cycle assessment require more detailedmodel development and data before theycan be applied to the wide variety ofexisting agricultural production, processing,and distribution systems. Analyses thatproduce complete economic accountingof the multifunctional costs and benets

of agriculture are relatively rare. Andresearch on the impacts of agriculture andfood systems on global land use change,

biodiversity, and production capacity, forexample, has not tended to guide policy.

Although improvement of IPM, soilbuilding, and animal and plant managementstrategies for sustainable productionhave long been goals of agriculturalresearch, future challenges will require thediscovery of additional new approachesfor ecological management and moreenergy-efcient agricultural practices thatwill meet food needs, provide sufcient

economic returns to producers, and deliver

multiple environmental benets. Resiliencedemands constant innovation to developnew approaches and ways of thinking, andit requires the capacity to communicate andspread innovations quickly in response tounexpected challenges.

WATER RESOURCES WILL PRESENT

MAJOR CHALLENGES

Global change and future climate variabilityare expected to have profound impacts onwater demand and supplies, water quality,and ood and drought frequency and

severity. Crop and livestock productionsystems are vulnerable to drought andsevere weather events. Increasing theresiliency of these systems will be essentialto maintaining productive agriculturalsystems under changing climate conditions.

Food production currently utilizes morethan 70 percent of the total freshwaterwithdrawals that occur globally, and the

percentage is slightly higher than thatin the United States. At the same time,urban communities continue to demanda larger share of freshwater. With riversover-appropriated and major groundwateraquifers being steadily depleted, we aremoving toward a signicant scarcity of

water resources and an increased potentialfor conict over those diminished resources

The result is that the projected need, ascommonly expressed, to double foodproduction by 2050 must largely be fullled

on the same land area but with a reducedwater footprint.

To meet these challenges, we must developprotable agricultural systems that both

conserve and recycle water. This includesnding innovative methods to capture and

store rainfall and runoff, using impaired

waters for irrigation, developing newcrop varieties that have enhanced wateruse efciency, increasing the productivity

of rain-fed agricultural systems, anddeveloping livestock grazing systems thathave increased exibility and resiliency to

drought. Additionally, new institutionalmechanisms must be developed and testedthat create incentives for sharing agriculturawater and that increase public supportfor balancing the requirements of foodproduction on the one hand and the lifequality issues of society on the other.

n Research Needs andPriorities

WATER RESOURCES

Water use efciency and productivity. Developcrop and livestock systems that requireless water per unit of output; systemswith increased resilience to both ooding

and drought as well as interruptions insupply; institutional arrangements to

facilitate water sharing across sectors;and water pricing and other market-based approaches.

Groundwater management and protection.

Develop new management andinstitutional arrangements to sustaingroundwater systems, including real-time data networks and decision supportsystems to optimize conjunctive use ofsurface water and groundwater. Developwatershed management systems that are


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more effective in capturing water duringincreasingly intense precipitation eventsand storing it for use during droughts.

Wastewater reuse and use of marginal water

for agriculture. Develop cropping systemsand irrigation strategies that use impairedand recycled water while protecting soil

health and quality; address institutionalbarriers to the use of non-conventionalwaters; assess public health issuesrelated to pathogens and heavy metalcontamination; explore marginal watertreatment technologies and methodsto reduce energy requirements fortreatment; investigate use of brackishwater to supplement freshwaterresources; consider new approachesto reduce costs for desalination; anddevelop salt-tolerant crops.

Agricultural water quality. Develop

new approaches to reduce nutrients,pathogens, pesticides, salt, and emergingcontaminants in agricultural runoff andsediments; determine socioeconomicbarriers to adoption of new waterquality practices and develop innovativeapproaches to encourage and sustainadoption; develop methods for onsitetreatment of tile drainagewater; andexplore new methods to reduce waterquality impacts from animal waste.

Water institutions and policy. Develop riverbasin-scale institutional and planning

approaches that integrate land use, water,and environmental and urban interestsfor robust management solutions;investigate policy needs to sustainagricultural water supplies and increaseinstitutional and administrative exibility.

PLANT PRODUCTION AND INTEGRATED

SYSTEMS

On-farm productivity of crops can beimproved in a manner similar to thatachieved for corn. However, sustainedinvestment is required for research on

responsiveness of crops to fertilizer(organic and nonorganic); herbicide andinsecticide resistance; drought and frosttolerance; improved hardiness in the faceof handling, processing, and shipment; andother important aspects of production,such as mechanical harvesting in the case ofcertain tree fruits.

Integrated biosystems modeling workthat combines economic and biologicalfactors is needed to better understandand fully exploit synergies that may befound by coupling crop and livestockenterprises within the same farm. Thisrepresents an important shift away fromcompartmentalized, discipline-specicresearch (Gewin 2010), and the returns onsuch research are potentially signicant.

Further, signicant research needs exist

in the bioengineering eld for developing

composters/digesters and biofuels-basedenergy generators that allow farmers to sellinto the local electricity grid, providing themwith additional revenue streams. A sizeablenew research frontier has opened up inthe area of renewable energy sources thatprovides potentially important new avenuesof income for farmers. Effectively taking

advantage of this frontier requires advancesin technology as well as new research inthe areas of policy, market, and consumeracceptance.

A critical need exists to developtechnologies and marketing strategies acrossdifferent crops that are appropriate forfarms operating at vastly differing scales,including the very small to the very large,while not ignoring the vulnerable farms inthe middle. Especially in the case of fruitand vegetable production, opportunities are

widely believed to exist on the fringes ofurban areas, where access to fresh productsis critically important and also perceivedto be of high value by consumers. Asinterest in urban gardening grows (includingrooftop and vertical gardens), the need foradaptation of crop production for thesevenues and the need for bioremediationin urban environments are also pressingissues. While important advances haveoccurred in our understanding of emergingmarket institutions such as CommunitySupported Agriculture(e.g., Brown andMiller 2008) or Farm-to-School programs(e.g., Schafft et al. 2010), a more science-based understanding of the causes andconsequences of these institutions in thewider context of local and regional foodsystems is urgently needed in light of theconcerns about obesity and access to qualityfood for all segments of the population.

Water problems threateningagricultural sustainability include:

n Reduced, marginal, and less-reliable water supplies

n Water quality problemsrelated to agricultural runo


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Grand Challenge 1

DEVELOP NEW PLANT PRODUCTS, USES,

AND CROP PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

Improve crop productivity with limited

inputs of water and nutrients throughenhanced efciencies, plant biology,

IPM, and innovative management

systems. Develop strategies to enhance energy

efciency in agricultural production

systems. Develop technologies to improve

processing efciency of crop

bioproducts (e.g., biofuels,pharmaceuticals, and functional foods).

Investigate the interdependency of

multiple land-use decisions, includinguses for food, ber, biofuels, andecosystem services.

Assess the benets and costs of

decreasing the dependency on synthetic,petroleum-based chemicals in theagricultural industry.

Conceive new markets for new plant

products and new uses for those crops.

ANIMAL PRODUCTION

Domestic livestock, poultry, and aquacultureproducts make up the major proportionof food consumed in the United States.Advances in agricultural research in thelast 40 years have revolutionized the wayanimals are produced and processed, leading

to signicant increases in productionand substantial improvements in productquality. These advances have often allowedproducers to keep up with demandeven while reducing their environmentalfootprint. In recent years, however, anumber of challenges have led to reducedprotability, threatening the sustainability

of animal agriculture while simultaneouslythreatening food abundance, safety,and security. The leading challenge, theglobalization of the world economy, hasrecast international expectations for food

production and transport and created aconcomitant change in market patterns.Domestically, recent changes in utilizationof grains for bioenergy have createdshifts in animal nutrition managementand animal production systems, requiringdietary adjustments for food animals thatare based on price and availability of grainsand grain products (e.g., distiller grains).These stresses occur within a potentiallyshifting and changing climate that increases

the complexity of managing what arealready complex animal systems. Animalproduction practices need to be developedthat incorporate sustainability of theirsupport system (feed supplies, etc.) andconsideration of environmental variability.

But this context is only part of thechallenge. The public has becomeincreasingly concerned about howproduction and consumption of animalproducts affects human health, theenvironment, and animal welfare. Publicconcerns about issues such as antibiotic usehumane practices, and manure managementand odor control in the livestock andpoultry industries are increasing. Sometimeswe lack the knowledge to respond to theseconcerns in an accurate and responsiblemanner. As we learn more about the genetic

code of all living species, our understandingof the cell biology, biochemistry, physiologyand genetics of animals and humans willaccelerate dramatically. The challengefor the future is to effectively utilize thisinformation to advance animal biology inpursuit of more protable and efcient

animal management practices, to formulatenew approaches to improve human healthand ght disease, and to improve the

interfaces between animal agriculture andlandscapes (natural, managed, and urban).

New initiatives to characterize the geneticarchitecture and resources of variousagriculture animals and aquaculture speciesare needed, including: Understanding gene networks that

control economically important traitsand enhancing breeding programs.

Making genetic enhancements for

growth, development, reproduction,nutritional value, disease resistance,stress resistance and tolerance, and meatquality and yields. Such enhancementsrequire preservation of genetic diversityin livestock and related species.

Enhancing feed conversion efciencyof livestock, poultry, and aquaculture.

Our knowledge of animal biology isgrowing and will continue to grow withnew advances in understanding. The keyis to ensure that traditional and necessarydisciplines and areas of study that arerelevant to livestock industries (e.g.,reproduction, genetics, and nutrition)


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Grand Challenge 1

grow not as discrete research activities butrather as integrated endeavors that considermechanistic and holistic understandings ofanimals and their human consumers. Theseemerging areas of holistic explorationare the new priority areas that shouldunderpin future animal agriculture. Thus,

the challenge of animal agriculture becomesnot how to remake or to redevelop itstraditional aspects but how to integratethese aspects and their advances with thewhole environment, of which humans arean integral part. Researchers then becometrue stewards of the environment byresearching and managing their particularfoci, including aspects of plant and animalagriculture, in ecological contexts.

DEVELOP NEW ANIMAL PRODUCTION

TECHNOLOGIES, PRACTICES,

PRODUCTS, AND USES

Enhance animal productivity by

maximizing their genome capacitiesand developing new animal breeds andstocks; by optimizing their relationshipwith the environment; and by adoptinginnovative management systems.

Develop technologies for animal health,

well-being, and welfare in all productionsystems to enhance nutrition, efciency,

quality, and productivity.

Develop technologies and strategies toenhance energy and nutrition efciencies

in animal production systems. Develop technologies for animal waste

utilization and management to reducethe impact of agricultural production onthe environment.

IMPROVE THE ECONOMIC RETURN TO

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS

While returns on previous publicinvestments (e.g., in the form of highproductivity growth of crops such as corn)have been nothing short of spectacular(Huffman and Evensen 2006) (Figure 3),these investments need to continue just tomaintain yields at current levels (Alstonet al. 2009). In addition, new investmentsin input-reducing and output-enhancingtechnologies are needed in emergingpriority areas to maintain the nationsoverall standard of living. These priorityareas include a variety of crops such asfruits and vegetables, where technologicalinnovations need to be complementedwith research on new policies, markets, anddistribution systems that deliver foods fromdiverse farms while balancing low costs toconsumers and fair returns to farmers.Social sciences research is shifting froman exclusive focus on individuals (farmers,consumers, entrepreneurs, intermediaries) to

a science-based understanding of the roles,positions, and interactions of individualswithin networks (Borgatti et al. 2009).This allows for a more comprehensiveanalysis and understanding of producerand consumer incentives, behaviors, andperformance, and it has the potential toprovide powerful insights into how bestto spawn the innovation that will keepU.S. agricultureand the U.S. economymore generallyat the frontiers of globalcompetitiveness.

Even as the economy recovers, acontinuation of current trends can beexpected in terms of high obesity rates,with associated rising health care costsand the coexistence of hungry and food-insecure populations, unless systems toaddress these issues are employed. Fooddeserts will continue to spread acrossthe nation, exacerbating the hunger-with-obesity problem among disadvantagedpopulations. Within the agricultural sector, aFigure 3. (USDA-Economic Research

Service)

Technological advances brought about by agricultural research and

development have both improved yields and reduced input requirements.Public agricultural research investments are responsible for about half ofthe measured productivity gain in U.S. agriculture.

CROP EXAMPLE


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Grand Challenge 1

hollowing-out will continue, and rural areaswill continue to experience economic andsocial decline.

Innovations in a number of areasare centrally important to futurecompetitiveness and will eventually dene

how we provide a more healthy foodsupply to the citizens of this country.Important related questions come to thefore: Will expansion of local and regionalfood systems improve food security andsustainable production methods? Will thecritical mass of farms needed to sustainviable agricultural input and output marketsbe retained? What is the tipping point inloss of farmland and farmers that couldnegatively impact various areas of thecountry, and what does this mean to thequality of life in this country? Infrastructure

constitutes an important public good tothe extent that it is part of sustainable foodsecurity for the United States. In light of allof these challenges, we need to Develop sustainable production systems

that are protable and productive and

that include integration of crop andlivestock production.

Provide evidence-based

recommendations for alternatives tothe current price support system thatwill encourage diverse agriculturalproduction.

Explore the use of alternative economicmodels for stimulating farming, e.g.,the use of innovative farmer supportprograms in addition to traditional pricesupports.

Support the development of marketing

infrastructure for crop bioproducts. Explicitly value ecosystem services

provided by agricultureand multi-functionality in general.

IMPROVE THE PRODUCTIVITY

OF ORGANIC AND SUSTAINABLEAGRICULTURE

Many specic practices have been

proposed as consistent with a sustainableapproach to agriculture. However, giventhe generational time scales inherent inconsidering sustainability, the evaluation ofthe sustainability of food and agriculturalsystems may have more to do with anability to evaluate complex systems andtrade-offs than simply an ability to classifythe system. In contrast, organic agriculture

has been dened in terms of a specicset of practices that can be certied. The

approaches and practices associated withorganic production and food systems offera number of options that agriculture mayemploy in facing the challenges of predictedglobal changes in climate and in the use

of energy, water, and land. Therefore, thenational agricultural science agenda needsto focus on the costs and benets of

organic production according to the holisticevaluation framework suggested above, andit needs to sponsor research that will helpshape the future of organic agriculture as achanging, more resilient body of practices.

Organic agriculture provides a uniqueopportunity to invent systems that aresustainable in the face of currentlypredicted future constraints to production.

These new systems can be more resilient inthe face of future unpredictable challengesto agriculture and can address manyof the needs described above. Organicsystems deserve more attention in thenational research agenda, because theyare less reliant on fossil fuels than othersystems (particularly due to eliminationof synthetic nitrogen and pesticides) andbecause established organic systems canbe as productive per unit of land area asmore fossil-fuel-intensive systems. Specic

concerns about organic systemsfor

example their reliance on cultivation forweed control, which leads to soil loss andhigher energy costscan be addressedthrough systems research and development.Furthermore, the historically holisticand systems orientation of the organicmovement and organic farming (Stinner2007) could help inform and facilitate theintegration of more systemic approachesinto research carried out to develop moresustainable agriculture in general.

IMPROVE AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTIVITY BY SUSTAINABLE

MEANS, CONSIDERING CLIMATE,ENERGY, WATER, AND LAND USE

CHALLENGES

Improve efciency and sustainability

of agricultural production systemsthrough systems-level evaluation thatuses metrics such as energy (i.e., life cycleor emergy), human and social capital,ecosystem services, and human healthoutcomes, along with more standardeconomic measures.


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o Quantify and analyze the trade-offs of different policy options fordifferent constituencies.

o Develop collaborative researcher-stakeholder analyses of these trade-offs, and rapidly integrate scientic

results with stakeholder/practitioner

discoveries and local adaptations.o Explore agricultures role in the

transition from a continuous growthto a steady stateeconomics model.

Develop management strategies and

tools that improve agricultural pest,weed, and disease control; soil building;and green manures and crop rotation;improve integrated animal-plant andother management strategies forsustainable production.o Ensure that agricultural production

systems build and maintain soil

structure and diverse biologicalcommunities both above and belowground.

o Integrate animal and plant systemsfor efcient closed-loop nutrientcycling, with energy generation as anadditional opportunity for managingnutrient cycles without waste orleakage.

o Meet the challenge of providingsufcient nitrogen to maintain

productivity while reducing oreliminating reliance on fossil fuels for

the production of inorganic nitrogen.o Create plant and animal breedingprograms that allow for coexistenceand producer choice betweendecentralized resources and prot

(e.g., Seed Savers) and centralizedresources and prot (e.g., Monsanto);

or create plant and animal breedingprograms that address problemsin the public domain that are notaddressed by the for-prot sector

(e.g., disease resistance in open-pollinated varieties that allow seedsaving and sharing among resource-poor farmers).

o Develop IPM that is independent ofpurchased inputs from centralizedsources (i.e., that instead involvesbiologically- and ecologically-basedmethods).

o Develop pest control inputs thatare very selective and therefore notecologically disruptive, that improveprotability for producers in both

the short and long term, and that areaccepted by society as being equitableand just in their costs and benets.

o Promote parallel resistance, inwhich the agroecosystem stays aheadof the increasing rate of penetrationby invasive species.

o Encourage equipment developmentand adaptation through producer/user innovation and recycling, andencourage investment in large-scaleand inexpensive production forequipment innovations.

Examine the multifunctional costs and

benets of certied organic agriculture,

including environmental conservation,production, health and nutrition,protability, and energy efciency.

o Assess the trade-offs between organicand conventional agriculture using

metrics such as energy (i.e., life cycleor emergy), human labor inputs, andhuman health outcomes.

o Examine the optimal conservation,environmental, and productionoutcomesincluding sustainability,nutrition content, protability, and

energy efciencyfor organically

produced agricultural products.o Evaluate ecosystem service

marketplaces and organic labelingas methods of returning value toproducers for environmental benets.

MAINTAIN A SUSTAINABLEENVIRONMENT

Develop efcient and sustainable

farming and food processing systemsthat rely on renewable energy systemsand decrease the carbon footprint,particularly those systems that convertagricultural wastes into biomass fuelsthat further improve the efciency of a

systems production. Develop environmentally friendly crop

and livestock production systems that

utilize sustainable feeding and IPMstrategies.

Develop methods to protect the

environment both on and beyond thefarm from any negative impacts ofagriculture through optimum use ofcropping systems, including agroforestry,phytoremediation, site-specicmanagement, multicrop diversied

farms, and perennial crops.


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Grand Challenge 1

Develop innovative technologies

for reducing the impact of animalagriculture on the environment.

Develop strategies, ecological and

socioeconomic system models, andpolicy analyses to address conservation,biodiversity, ecological services, recycling,and land use policies.

Develop agricultural systems that create

fewer waste products. Create a clear understanding of the

principles and facets underlying theconcept of sustainability as it relates tourban and rural agriculture.

n Expected Outcomes

Without the investments described above,agricultural systems that continue to have

a narrow focus primarily on productivitywill be highly vulnerable to increasesin energy costs, loss of key fertilizersources (e.g., phosphorus deposits), andclimate variability. Even in the absenceof these challenges, a business-as-usualapproach to agriculture will continue todegrade soil and water resources and haveadverse impacts on biodiversity, air quality,and other aspects of the environment.Agriculture will become increasinglyunsustainable and will ultimately not beeconomically viable. Decisions about land

use changes will be divorced from a societalappreciation of the importance of foodproduction, and ultimately productioncapacity itself will be reduced as agriculturalland is sold for development. Withoutdevelopment of data sets and holisticanalytical tools with which to evaluatesustainability in agriculture, we will not beequipped to meet the enormous challengesanticipated in the near future. However,with investment in, and adaptation of, thesenew and universal approaches, agriculturewill be subject to evaluation and assessmentusing the same set of tools and metrics andthe same vocabulary as that used to evaluateenergy use, carbon footprints, fair trade,etc., in a variety of land uses. Evaluatingagriculture using a framework that placesagricultural production, and ultimatelystewardship, within this broader context willbenet farmers as well as consumers.


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n References

Alston J.M., J.M. Beddow, and P.G. Pardey. 2009. Agricultural research productivity andfood prices in the long run. Science325(5945):12091210.

Basu, A. 2009. Forecasting distribution of body mass index in the United States: Is theremore room for growth?Medical Decision MakingDOI: 10.1177/0272989X09351749.

Borgatti, S.P., A. Mehra, D.J. Brass, and G. Labianca. 2009. Network analysis in the socialsciences. Science323(5916):892895.

Brown, C. and S. Miller. 2008. The impacts of local markets: A review of research onfarmers markets and community supported agriculture (CSA).American Journal of

Agricultural Economics90(5):12981302.

ERS (Economic Research Service). 2010. Food and Fiber Sector Indicators.Amber WavesStatistics Tables: 50.

Folke, C., J. Colding, and F. Berkes. 2003. Synthesis: building resilience and adaptive capacityin social-ecological systems. InNavigating Social-Ecological Systems, edited by F. Berkes, J.Colding, and C. Folke. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 352387.

Gewin, V. 2010. Cultivating new talent.Nature464(7285):128130.

Holling, C.S. 2001. Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and socialsystems.Ecosystems4:390405.

Holling, C.S., L.H. Gunderson, and D. Ludwig. 2002. In quest of a theory of adaptivechange. In Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems, edited byL.H. Gunderson and C.S. Holling. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 322.

Huffman, W.E. and R.E. Evenson. 2006. Do formula or competitive grant funds havegreater impacts on state agricultural productivity?American Journal of Agricultural

Economics88(4):783798.

Jordan, N., G. Boody, W. Broussard, J.D. Glover, D. Keeney, B.H. McCown, G. McIsaac,M. Muller, H. Murray, J. Neal, C. Pansing, R.E. Turner, K. Warner, and D. Wyse. 2007.Sustainable development of the agricultural bio-economy. Science316(5831):15701571.

Schafft, K., C. Hinrichs, and D. Bloom. 2010. Pennsylvania farm-to-school programs andthe articulation of local context.Journal of Hunger and Environmental Nutrition 5:2340.

Stevenson, G. and R. Pirog. 2008. Values-Based Supply Chains: Strategies for AgrifoodEnterprises of the Middle. In Food and the Mid-Level Farm: Renewing an Agriculture of the

Middle, edited by T. Lyson, G. Stevenson, and R. Welsh. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press,119143.

Stinner, D.H. 2007. The science of organic farming. In Organic Farming: An InternationalHistory, edited by W. Lockeretz. Wallingford, UK: Centre for Agricultural BioscienceInternational (CABI).


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22Grand Challenge 2

We must adapt to and mitigate the impacts ofclimate change on food, feed, ber, and fuelsystems in the United States.

n Framing the Issue

Climate change has become an even moredaunting, more grand challenge since the

last Science Roadmap analysis 10 years ago.Today, the evidence that climate changeis already upon us is well documented,including substantial evidence that plants,animals, insects, and other living thingsare already responding. Climate modelsand their spatial resolutions have beenimproved, allowing regional climateprojections at a smaller geographic scale andenabling an increased understanding of theearths climate. While the climate is alwayschanging, these models tell us that the paceof change within this century is likely tobe faster by several orders of magnitude

than the most recent ice age transitionif society follows a business-as-usualscenario of fossil fuel-based emissions. Inits Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change2007, the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC,www.ipcc.ch),an international panel of leading climatescientists, concluded that there is a greaterthan 90 percent chance that rising globally-averaged temperatures are primarily due tohuman activities, and that by mid-century(2050), temperatures across most of theUnited States will likely increase by between

3 and 6F, based primarily on a continuingincrease in atmospheric greenhouse gases.There will also be changes in rainfallpatterns and, potentially, increases in stormintensity resulting in higher risks of cropfailures, natural disasters, and migration ofaffected populations.

The impacts of climate change onagriculture, food systems, and food security

will have socioeconomic, environmental,and human health implications. How canthose involved in agriculture be preparedto take advantage of opportunities and

minimize the risks and inequities of climatechange impacts? What technologies,information, and decision-making toolsare needed to guide our responses to helpensure sustainable agriculture systems?This challenge is different from thosethat agriculture and agricultural scientistshave had to address in the past for severalreasons, some of which are discussed briey

below.

Climate change is a global problem.Thesolution requires coordinated action by allpeople and all nations. Costs of mitigationand adaptive actions must be borne in thepresent but will have benets in the distant

future, making action politically difcult.

The debate has become highly politicized,making it difcult for farmers, the public,

and policymakers to sort through theinformation for decision-making purposes.

Decision making under uncertainty.Thechallenge of coordinated global action ismade more difcult by the fact that, despite

improvements in our models,there remainsconsiderable uncertainty about some

aspects of climate change, such as futureemissions scenarios, precipitation patterns,and regional variation in the magnitudeof change to expect this century. Thisuncertainty has fueled the public debateabout whether there is really a threat andabout what type of adaptation or mitigationcost today is warranted to avoid negativeeconomic costs in the future.

Weather vs. Climate: What is theDierence?

Weather is the atmosphericcondition (e.g., temperature,precipitation, humidity, wind) atany given time or place. In mostplaces, weather is highly variableand can change from hour to hour,day to day, and season to season.In contrast, climate refers to long-term weather averages. This caninclude the average frequencyof extreme events, such as theaverage number of heat waves peryear over several decades. The

World Meteorological Organizationconsiders the statistical meanand variability of factors such astemperature and precipitation overa period of 3 decades to evaluateclimate trends, but climate canrefer to other periods of time,sometimes thousands of years,depending on the purpose.


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Timescale issues in agricultural decisions and

policies.Many decisions in agriculture aremade on a short time scale in response toweather and weather extremes. The daily toseasonal time horizon commonly used byfarmers for weather information is in sharpcontrast to the time horizon of 50 to 100

years or longer discussed in most climatechange literature. However, many importantdecisions that farmers make do considera longer (i.e., decades-long) time horizon,such as investing in an irrigation or tiledrainage system; new livestock facilitiesor renovations; purchasing or selling land;and planting tree crops and forests. Somepolicy decisions relevant to agriculture,such as taxpayer investment in large-scalewater management projects or investmentin research, will operate on longer timehorizons. Furthermore, many research

efforts that might address adaptation toclimate change require longer-term projectson the order of a decade or two.

Complexity and interconnectedness of supply

chains. Chains of production, distribution,and marketing of agricultural productsare highly complex. The actors associatedwith each of these links in the chain makedecisions based on unique types of dataand have their own sensitivities to climatechange and climate change policy. Changesin climate may result in a need to transform

entire chains of production and marketingsystems.

Nonclimate factors affecting agriculture

and adaptive capacity. Climate is not theonly change that agriculture is faced with.Population growth, land use change, energycost, and demand for biofuels collectivelywill lead to transformations in agriculture insome regions.

Pressures for mitigation as well asadaptation. Concern about climate changeplaces pressure on all industries, includingagriculture, to engage in mitigationefforts. There are many opportunitiesfor agriculture to contribute to a goal ofreducing greenhouse gas emissions andsequestering carbon.

n Rationale andJustication

EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Evidence of climate change relevant to

agriculture is already apparent acrossmost of the United States. In addition toincreases in air and water temperatures,observations have shown a reduction in thenumber of frost days, increased frequencyand intensity of heavy rainfall events, risingsea levels, and reduced snow cover. Sincethe 1970s, temperatures across the UnitedStates have risen faster in winter, particularlyin the Midwest and High Plains, wherewinter temperatures average more than 7Fwarmer than they did three decades ago.Similarly, climate projections indicate that

increasing winter precipitation will be offsetby small increases or decreases in summerrainfall. Changes in other hydrologicparameters, such as glaciation, stream ow,

and snowmelt, have also been documentedand are already affecting water availabilityfor agriculture, particularly in the West.In addition to physical evidence of climatechange, there is substantial evidence that theliving world is responding to recent climatechange. The peer-reviewed literature is lled

with well-documented examples of earlierspring bloom dates for woody perennials,earlier spring arrival of migratory insectsand birds, and range shifts to higher latitudeand elevation for many insect, plant, andanimal species. Some aggressive invasivespecies, such as the notorious Southernweed kudzu, are projected to benet by

future climate change and to spread theirrange northward.

These trends are likely to continuethroughout this centuryregardlessof the future emissions of greenhousegasesdue to the inertia of the climate

system (e.g., inertia associated with factorssuch as warmer oceans and the longevityof carbon dioxide emissions in theatmosphere). If greenhouse gas emissionscontinue in a business-as-usual trend,average annual temperatures are expectedto increase by as much as 10F by 2100,particularly across the central parts of theUnited States. As mentioned above, bymid-century, temperatures across most of


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Grand Challenge 2

the United States will increase by between3 and 6F. Again, to put these projectionsin perspective, they represent a pace ofwarming that is about 100 times greaterthan the pace during the most recent iceage transition. There are also importantregional differences in climate change across

the United States that must be understoodin order to develop region-specic societal

response options.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Assessments of climate change impacts onU.S. agriculture by the U.S. Climate ChangeScience Program (www.sap43.ucar.edu),as well as numerous regional analyses, haveidentied a number of key climate-related

impacts. Some of these are described briey

below:

Increasing carbon dioxide levels can stimulateplant growth and yield, particularlyof plants with the C

3photosynthetic

pathway (a pathway for carbon xation

in photosynthesis), but the magnitudeof response varies greatly among speciesand can become negligible under hightemperature stress or nutrient deciency.

Many aggressive, fast-growing C3

weeds benet more than crop plants

from rising carbon dioxde and becomeresistant to control by glyphosate, themost commonly used herbicide.

Warmer summers and longer growing seasonscould provide opportunities to obtainhigher yields and/or to explore marketsfor new crops, especially in high latituderegions. Negative impacts will include:increased seasonal water and nutrientneeds; more generations per season ofsome insect pests; and a longer growingseason for weeds.

Increased frequency of summer heat stresswillhave negative effects on the productivityor quality of many crop species. Inaddition, heat stress has negative effectson productivity and survival of livestock

and reduces milk production by dairycows.

Warmer winterswill expand the wintersurvival and range of many weed, insect,and disease pests. Winter chillingrequirements of perennial fruit andnut crops may no longer be met insome warmer growing regions, reducingproductivity, while historically coolerregions may be able to grow new fruit

or nut crop varieties or new winter covercrops that were previously restricted bycold temperatures.

Increased frequency of heavy rainfall eventscan have direct negative effects on croproot health and yield. They also delayplanting, harvesting, and other farm

operations; increase soil compaction;wash off applied chemicals; and increaserunoff, erosion, and leaching losses.

Increased frequency of summer droughtwill bring more frequent drought-related yield or quality losses due tothe increased crop water requirementsthat will occur with warmer summertemperatures, lower summer rainfall, orboth.

Most western high-value agriculture dependson irrigation provided by snowmelt, so aswinter and spring temperatures warm,

less water will be available from thissource, increasing the tension betweenagricultural and municipal uses of water.

Frequency of extreme weather events and

seasonal variabilityhave a major impacton agriculture but remain difcult

for climate modelers to predict. Forexample, winter temperature variabilitycan cause de-hardeningor prematureleaf-out and owering of perennial

plants, increasing the risk of freeze orfrost damage despite overall warmingtrends.

n Current Capacity andScience Gaps

Building adaptive capacity for agriculture

will require addressing uncertainties inclimate model projections regardingprecipitation, frequency of extremeevents, and temporal and spatial climatevariability.

Farmers need better decision tools for

determining the optimum timing and

magnitude of investments for strategicadaptation to climate change. We needto engage the agricultural communitymore completely in research programsthat lead to agricultural technologies,practices, and policies for increasingresilience and adaptive capacity. Suchcapacity will not only lessen the impactsof climate change on agriculture butwill also provide improved strategies fordealing with year-to-year natural climate

Given a number of potentialclimate-related impacts, U.S.agriculture will not continuebusiness as usual.


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Grand Challenge 2

variations. New social science researchneeds to be integrated into research onagricultural practices and policies tohelp overcome some of the barriers toprogress in this area.

Research on how farmers and other

decision- and policymakers should

respond to weather variability andclimate change needs to consider thewide range of planning horizons.Advances coming out of the decisionsciences on topics such as riskperception, temporal discounting,decision making under uncertainty,participatory processes, decisionarchitecture, equity, and framing havenot been taken into account in thedesign of effective adaptive agriculturalmanagement mechanisms or programsdesigned to inuence behavior to reduce

greenhouse gas production. Thesecognitive and cultural factors have amajor inuence on the communication

of, understanding of, and response to,scientic information.

A transdisciplinary, s

science roadmap

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