science, technology and innovation outlook 2016 - ec/oecd launch event

THE OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016

EC/OECD joint event for the launch of the OECD STI Outlook 2016

Andrew Wyckoff, OECD Director of STI

8 December 2016 Brussels, Belgium

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Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

“What’s new in the field of science, technology and innovation policy? “

International review based on latest policy information and indicators

Unique policy questionnaire

A 20-year tradition. Every 2 years.

New in 2016’s edition:

10-15 year horizon scan

Megatrends for STI

Key emerging technologies

Future research systems

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ONLINE CONTENT

~ 40 policy profiles

Cross-country comparison of key STI policy orientation,

instruments and governance


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BOOK and eBOOK

Megatrends for STI

Future technology trends

The future of science systems

Recent trends in STI policies

International benchmarking and recent national STI policy

developments

52 country profiles

ONLINE CONTENT

STI e-Outlook

STI Policy mapping Statistical platform

ONLINE INFRASTRUCTURES


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8 Megatrends for STI

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Megatrends & Technology

Trends for STI


Urgency of policy action

Science and innovation are key

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Changing demand for innovation

• Ageing societies, areas of population growth (esp. Africa) and a growing middle class (esp. Asia) will impact innovation demand and markets.

• Societal shifts in behaviours and expectations are expected as well.

Changing supply factors

• Materials less abundant => STI for less resource-intensive production and a circular economy.

• Different labour profiles required => new STI and complementary skills.

• Fast-changing portfolios of productive assets, i.e. new technologies, new practices in management, marketing, datasets (‘big data’) etc.

Changing context for R&D

• Need for interdisciplinarity, international R&D cooperation, international technology diffusion, public-private partnerships.

• BUT greater inter-state competition and insecurity could lead to protectionism, and a slowdown in international R&D cooperation and technology diffusion.

What do these challenges mean for STI and policies?


10 Emerging Technology Trends

Nanomaterials Additive manufacturing

Advanced materials

Advanced energy storage tech.

Micro and nanosatellites

Energy and environment

Blockchain

Artificial intelligence (IA)

Internet of Things (IoT)

Big Data and analytics

Neurotechnologies

Synthetic biology

Biotechnologies

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Digital


10 Emerging Technology

Trends 8


Launch history and projection for nano- and microsatellites, 2009-20

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(re)Distributing the benefits

• Technological change creates winners & losers. Policy should address distribution effects and ensure inclusive access to new technology-based benefits (e.g. training, competition policy, etc.).

• Support to technology diffusion, e.g. through extension services, is often as important as novel technology development.

Good policy governance

• Emerging technologies carry several risks and uncertainties – how should they be governed?

• Addressing issues related to security, privacy, integrity and ethics.

• International cooperation is key.

Support to public research

• Public research plays pivotal roles in underpinning all of these technologies by producing new knowledge and nurturing skills.

• Fostering open science to improve efficiency and effectiveness of public R&D.

How can we realise the potential of these technologies?


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Trends for STI


Capacity of governments to intervene?

Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?)



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R&D has fallen behind other policy priorities in many countries

Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds; OECD National Accounts Database.

Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of total government expenditures, 2000 and 2015

http://www.oecd.org/sti/rds

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Public R&D budgets are likely to plateau around current ratios

Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of GDP

Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.



Could increasingly generous R&D tax incentives jeopardize our fundamental research?

Change in R&D tax costs (% annual growth) and the share of public support going to firms (% point) , 2006-14 or nearest years available

Source: Based on OECD R&D Tax Incentive Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/rd-tax-stats.htm, July 2016; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.htm, June 2016; OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.

There is emerging evidence of more public support going to firms – and away from public research -

due to more generous R&D tax incentives

More support given to firms (and less to public research)

More generous tax concessions

http://www.oecd.org/sti/rd-tax-stats.htm





http://www.oecd.org/sti/msti.htm


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Public research has shifted towards universities …

Public R&D, OECD, % of GDP

Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, June 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.

Higher

education

Government

Funding by industry, OECD, USD million 2010 PPP

… that are increasingly relying on private funding

http://www.oecd.org/sti/msti

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The trend is poised to last: STI policy is focusing on immediate economic imperatives

and policy efficiency gains

Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database

STI policy priority index, 2016 compared to 2014

https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database





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Trends for STI


Capacity of governments to intervene?

Competing policy priorities and agendas (financial resources?)

Shaping future R&D and innovation policy agendas?

Opening science

Building international cooperation



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More responsible R&I policies encourage a greater intertwining of science and citizen

Policy mix for addressing societal challenges

Gender balance

Building an innovation

culture

New RRI governance arrangements

Percentage of policy initiatives newly introduced, substantially revised or repealed over the period 2014-16

Source: Based on country responses to the EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP), https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database






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Open science is on the march

Number of papers, 2000-13

Source: Based on Laakso, M. and B.-C. Björk (2012), “Anatomy of open access publishing: A study of longitudinal development and internal structure”, BMC Medicine, Vol. 10, p. 124, http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/124, and website of the Open Access Scholarly Publications Association (OASPA), http://oaspa.org/growth-of-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/.

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/124




http://oaspa.org/growth-of-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/




















International knowledge networks are more diverse

20 Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013: Innovation for Growth, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2013-en.

Internationally co-authored articles


http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2013-en







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Highest expected citation impact of scientific authors by mobility profile Based on the median Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) score of 2013, mobility patterns over 1996-2013

Source: OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en.

International mobility is a major channel for knowledge circulation, if not the first









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http://oe.cd/STIOutlook

• Global megatrends and societal challenges highlight the need for some big solutions and radical changes, including in our STI policies.

• There is a risk of greater protectionism that could threaten future international cooperation for R&D and innovation and international mobility.

• At the same time, new and emerging technologies will have a deep impact on economies and societies. Although we can already anticipate their disruption, it is still difficult to know precisely what form and scale this will take.


• There are serious concerns about declining public funding for R&D and innovation, and the situation could deteriorate further with austerity and ageing societies.




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Thank you for your attention Please see the participant’s package for further details

Contact us at [email protected]


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