science update: understanding the ipcc findings lee r. kump · 2 in the atmosphere could raise...
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Science Update:Understanding the
IPCC Findings
Lee R. Kump
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“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century is verylikely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(United Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
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“Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or
irreversible, depending on the rate or magnitude of climate change”
IPCC Chairman Pachauri Speech to World Economic Forum, Davos, January 2008
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“As global average temperature increases exceed 3.5oC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe”
IPCC Chairman Pachauri Speech to World Economic Forum, Davos, January 2008
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Overview of Talk• What is the greenhouse effect?
• Why the fuss over CO2when water vapor does so much more?
• What do we know about high CO2 worlds?
• What else is happening to the climate system?
• Can we trust models? What do they predict?
• What’s ocean acidification?
• Where are the critical gaps in scientific understanding needed for policy decisions?
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Svante Arrhenius (1896)Performed numerical calculations that suggested that doubling the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could raise global mean surface temperatures by 5-6°C.
Joseph Fourier (1827)Recognized that gases in the atmosphere might trap the heat received from the Sun.
James Tyndall (1859)Careful laboratory experiments demonstrated that several gases could trap infrared radiation. The most important was simple water vapor. Also effective was carbon dioxide, although in the atmosphere the gas is only a few parts in ten thousand.
Argued that rising levels of carbon dioxide were responsible for measurable increases in Earth surface temperatures. Estimated that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere could raise global mean surface temperatures by 2°C.
Guy Callendar (1939)
Discovery of the Greenhouse Effect
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What is the “Greenhouse Effect”?
Mann and Kump (Dire Predictions, 2008
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Mann and Kump (Dire Predictions, 2008
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Mann and Kump (Dire Predictions, 2008
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NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT
57oF vs. 0oF
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Anthropogenic GREENHOUSE EFFECT
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Anthropogenic CO2 forces climate; water amplifies
Mann and Kump (Dire Predictions, 2008
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Historical CO2 measurements
Began in 1958 We know this is anthropogenic
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Vostok Ice Core
Prehistoric Greenhouse Gas Measurements
‘Business as Usual’scenario
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Zachos et al. (2001, Science 292: 686-693)
Polar temperatures for the last 65 million years
PETM
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Polar Temperature
Atmospheric CO2
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Historical Trends
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Glacial Retreat
2007
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Glacial Retreat
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Tipping Points
Arctic Sea Ice Decline
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Tipping PointsIce Sheet Collapse
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Tipping Points
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Tipping Points
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Tipping Points
Ocean ‘Conveyor belt’collapse
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Should We Trust Climate Models?
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Should We Trust Climate Models?Natural Factors
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Should We Trust Climate Models?Natural Factors
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Should We Trust Climate Models?Human Factors
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Should We Trust Climate Models?Natural and Human
Factors
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Projected Future Warming
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This large star coral (Montastreaannularis) was being attacked by black band disease in 1988 and was mostly dead by 1998. (Courtesy E. Shinn)
1988
2001http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/african_dust/grecianrocks3.html
Live coral coverage in Florida Keys
decreasing at 10% per decade . . . why?
1998
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Scientific American March 2006
A number of stressors, including warming, nutrients, disease, but also CO2
Fossil Fuel CO2Uptake by Ocean
Doney (2006)
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CO2 + CO32- + H2O 2 HCO3
-
Carbon dioxide reacts with carbonate in water to form bicarbonate
Carbon Chemistry in Seawater
CO32-
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Observations at the Hawaii Ocean Times Series Station
3
4
5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Year
slope = -0.022±0.08 (95% CI) y-1
C. Langdon
CO
3C
once
ntr
atio
n (
x sa
tura
tion
)
Chris Langdon
Ca2+ + CO32- CaCO3
Corals need calcium and carbonate to form their skeletons
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Effect of atmospheric CO2 on community calcification (Biosphere 2)
y = 62373.77x -1.24
R2 = 0.61
0
40
80
120
0 200 400 600 800
pCO2, μatmC. Langdon
todaybefore humans
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)Chris Langdon
2100?
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Stabilization?
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realclimate.org
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Conclusions• Greenhouse effect is real, always had it, just intensifying
it
• Atmospheric CO2 and temperature have co-varied through Earth history
• Climate models best tool we have to project future climate; key gaps: nonlinearities, downscaling
• Tipping point behavior a real risk, not clear where tipping points reside. Key observations?
• Ocean acidification likely consequence of CO2 buildup. Need in situ experiments.