scientific introduction: air quality and what really · pdf file1/27/2014 ·...

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Scientific Introduction: Air quality and what really matters

E. Pisoni, P. Thunis Air and Climate Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Joint Research Centre, European Commission

9-10 January 2014, Forum-AE

Outline

Background • The air quality current situation• The air quality policy and its review

Jrc scientific activity

2

Outline



3

The good news: emissions…

4

EU MS have made progress in cutting emissions of several air pollutants.

Courtesy, Paul McAleavey, EEA

5Courtesy, Paul McAleavey, EEA (2011 data)

…but still high exposure

EU air quality standards

WHO air quality guidelines

Percentage of the EU’s urban population exposed to exceeding PM10 limits

PM10 concentration

81 %

In red: above EU limit values

21 %

Source: EEA Air Quality report 2012

NO2 concentration

7 %



In red: above EU limit value

7 %


Percentage of the EU’s urban population exposed to exceeding O3 limits

Ozone concentration

17 %

97 %



In red: above EU target value


Air pollution effects

9Courtesy, Paul McAleavey, EEA

What is the problem, in summary

10Courtesy, Thomas Verheye, DG-ENV

Outline



11

The International Air Quality Policy Framework• The UNECE, Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

(e.g. the Gothenburg Protocol with national emission ceilings)

The EU Air Quality Policy Framework. • Common strategic objectives: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution• National emission limits: NEC Directive• Local air quality limits: Ambient AQ Directives• Source-specific legislation: IED, Fuel quality standards, Euro

standards for vehicles and machinery, eco-design standards, etc.

At national level• National and local legislation and instruments

Policies in place

Focus on Air transport Main impacts:• Air quality • Climate change• Noise

Main issues:• ICAO technical standards limit emissions.• EU Directive 2008/50/EC establishing limit values (NOx and

particulates) apply at and around airports just as they do everywhere• Local air quality concerns concentrate on effects created during LTO

13

New AQP

Objectives- Short term: define actions for resolving present compliance

problems by 2020 at the latest- Mid term: define new targets and actions up to 2030- Long term: objective of no AQ significant impacts in 2050

The package- A new clean air programme for Europe- Revised NECD- New MCP directive- Non-regulatory actions on urban areas, agriculture, …

14

Outline



15

Monitoring: JRC’s European Reference Laboratory for Air Pollution

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• Scientific and technical support for the implementation and development of European air policies

• Classical monitoring and research activities related to innovative measurement and assessment techniques

• Harmonisation and Standardisation activities in collaboration with Member States and Accession Countries expert laboratories

F30

IVL

EP

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LAN

UV

AW

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ISS

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AB

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FMI

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LAP

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#T

Laboratory

Dev

iatio

n, %

Phenanthrene

Anthracene

Fluoranthene

Pyrene

Benzo[a]anthracene

Chrysene

Benzo[b]fluoranthene

Benzo[j]fluoranthene

Benzo[k]fluoranthene

Benzo[e]pyrene

Benzo[a]pyrene

Perylene

Indeno[1,2,3,-c,d]pyrene

Dibenzo[a,h]antracene

Benzo[g,h,i]perylene

*Chrysene+Triphenylene

*Benzo[b.j,k]fluoranthene

25

-500

250

100

50

10 010

-25

500

-250

-100

-50

Courtesy, Annette Borowiak, JRC

Laboratory testing at controlled wind/temperature/humidity conditions with varying air pollutant and interfering substance concentrations

Field validation studies: obtaining results through modelling sensor response according to influencing parameters

With “special treatment” some sensors can measure air quality (O3, NO2) within data quality requirements of EU Directives.

Courtesy, Annette Borowiak, JRC

Monitoring: Testing/validation of micro-sensors for air pollution

Integrated Assessment Modelling

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Combining scientific knowledge to provide information for the management of AQ and its impacts

TIER 1IAM assesses the impacts of

proposed actions

Scenario analysis

TIER 2IAM identifies effective

emission reduction measures

Optimization approach

Emissionscenario AQIs

Measures: • Technical• Energy measures• Structural

• Activities• Projections

• Emission reduction costs• External costs,• Health exposure,• Ecosystem exposure

• Expert judgement• Source-apportionment

(RESPONSES)

• Traffic• Industry• Residential

combution• …

(DRIVERS)

Emission inventory(PRESSURES)

- S/R relationships- CTM simulations

(STATE)

• Reduction costs• Dose-response functions• ….

(IMPACTS)

Courtesy, Marialuisa Volta, UNIBS

Scenario analysis

Emissionscenario AQIs

Measures: • Technical• Energy measures• Structural

• Activities• Projections

• Emission reduction costs• External costs,• Health exposure,• Ecosystem exposure

• Expert judgement• Source-apportionment

(RESPONSES)

• Traffic• Industry• Residential

combution• …

(DRIVERS)

Emission inventory(PRESSURES)

- S/R relationships- CTM simulations

(STATE)

• Reduction costs• Dose-response functions• ….

(IMPACTS)


Optimization

•Emission inventories and projections

•Emission reduction measures•Technical•Non Technical

•CTM simulations

Input databasesInput databases

•Source Receptor models

•Scenario analysis•Cost-effectiveness•Multi-objective analysis

Decision ModelDecision Model

•Efficient policies•Objective values•Post-processing

OutputOutput


Riat+ methodology

minX

AQIn(E(X))

C(X) L

minx

J(E(x)) minx

AQIn(E(x)) C(E(x))

Multi-objective approach

Cost-effective approach


Riat+ optimization approach

Nonlinear functions: based on Neural NetworksInput data for training:• emissions -> simulations -> concentrations (PM, NO2, O3)

set of air quality simulations: • Design of Experiments (run with CTMs)


AQI objective

Cost objective

Emission reduction costs• Technical measures• Energy measures


Ex-post analysis

GHG budget (CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases)

External costs (mortality and morbidity) for PM10• YOLL• Respiratory problems• Cardiovascular deseases• …


Optimal AQI and emissions maps

List of optimal measures to be appliedOptimal costs and emissions per ms

Examples


CLE: Current Legislation

leg

isla

tion Air Quality

Cost

rein

forc

emen

t

Role of JRC

reg

ion

al/

loca

l ap

pro

ach

Capacity building for compliance

• We have discussed:• Background

• Current AQ situation…still challenges• New AQP

• JRC research activities• Monitoring• Modelling

• Can the FORUM_AE community benefit from this expertise?

• Are there possible interactions with the JRC?

Conclusions

scientific introduction: air quality and what really · pdf file1/27/2014 ·...

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