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Scientific Methods for Management Science
Alexander SettlesHigher School of [email protected]
Class Web Site
http://hse.ru/edu/courses/8375505.html
All reading and schedule posted there
Schedule
1. Introduction to the Class – September 7th
2. From Theory to Research & Introduction to Research Reviews – September 14th
3. Review of Most Citied Corporate Governance Research – September 21st
4. Research Design Choices and Causal Inferences – September 28th
5. Inferences Validity and Reliability – October 5th
6. Experiments & Quasi-experiments – October 12th
7. Review of Most Citied Management Research – October 19th
8. Survey Development & Qualitative Research Methods – October 26th
9. Models and Simulation Analysis & Levels of Analysis – November 2nd
Course Objectives
Learn how to use the scientific method
Discuss your topic with fellow students
Find literature sources on management
Develop scholarly writing skills Develop critical thinking skills Instill research ethics
Course Objectives
Investigate professors that are potential dissertation advisors
Learn about human subjects issues Develop bibliographic organization
and citation skills Prepare dissertation proposal
Purpose of this Seminar
Introduction to international research practices
Improve results of your dissertation work and encourage you take an entire year to work on your papers
Gain a working knowledge of methods of scientific analysis
Common mistakes of HSE students in pursuing research
Making the blanket statement that things in Russia are different so social science practices do not apply
Poor literature reviews No methods – summaries of work
experiences or essay format No data to support or reject
hypotheses No conclusions
Course Requirements
Homework Assignment – Research review
Research Proposal Exam Class attendance and participation
Overview of Course Structure
Introduction to the Class and Intro to Research Paper Structure
From Theory to Research Research Design Choices and Causal Inferences Validity and Reliability Research Ethics and Content Analysis Research Experiments Quasi-experiments Survey Development Qualitative Research Methods Models and Simulation Analysis Levels of Analysis
Terms
applied research basic research belief-based
explanation circular explanation
(or tautology) commonsense
explanations confirmation bias deductive reasoning
hypothesis pseudoscience rational method research Science scientific method variable
Is Management a Science?
Falsification and common sense
Falsification is a crucial concept. And the hypothetico-deductive method is the only method for theory verification in all the empirical sciences (Elster, 1983)
It is not incompatible with “common sense”
Theory construction is different from theory verification
Methodological ¨naïveté”
Naïve rationalism: the position that the aim of a scientific theory is to ‘explain’ observed phenomena
Naïve empiricism: belief that for a statement to be scientifically meaningful, it must be logically constructible out of terms which refer to immediate experience.
Naïve pragmatism: the idea that scientific knowledge should be immediately ‘useful’, possibly coming directly from experience, and that the sooner it is used, the better
Contents of a typical research paper
Title page : abstract, contents Introduction Literature Review Description of work done and methods. Results and Discussion. Conclusions and Recommendations. References and Bibliography. Appendices.
Introduction
Define what the problem is The questions you are addressing Outline personal/specific
considerations that lead to this investigation
How it differs from previous work What the report will contain Perhaps some (hint) of the
conclusions
Methods
Describe the method or approach.
Justify that it is appropriate.
Establish constraints or assumptions.
Enable others to repeat the work and check the conclusions.
Link with the research question.
Motivate the work - what is its importance?
Establish approaches used in previous research - the literature search.
Where to Begin: Knowing thingsWhere to Begin: Knowing things
Not so much about what we know, but HOW we know
Most of what we know is matter of belief and agreement “Everybody knows that…” But everybody “knew” the world was flat once
Other way of knowing…direct experience, observation But when experience conflicts with agreement… There is good chance that we’ll surrender our experience in
favor of agreement
Methodology: special approach to inquiry The science of finding out How social scientists find out about human social life
Errors in inquiryErrors in inquiry
Inaccurate observations Most daily observations are casual… not precise Scientific observation is a conscious activity Ex: instructor’s clothes; football toss
Overgeneralization Assuming that a few similar events are evidence of a general
pattern Scientists guard against this by REPLICATION of inquiry
Selective observation We assume a pattern exists then focus on future events that
fit the pattern
Illogical reasoning “Exception that proves the rule” WHAT?...how can that be logical?
Foundations of social science:Foundations of social science:logic and observationlogic and observation
Theory, not philosophy or belief Social theory has to do with what is, not with what should
be...not so for many centuries. Science cannot settle debates about values
Social regularities Social affairs do exhibit a high degree of regularity, despite
exceptions
Aggregates, not individuals Regularities that social scientists study generally reflect the
collective behavior of many individuals
A Variable Language Attributes: characteristics or qualities that describe an object Variables: logical groupings of attributes
Independent and Dependent VariablesIndependent and Dependent Variables
Two concepts are implicit in causal or deterministic models
A dependent variable “depends” on an independent variable
That is, a change in the independent variable will produce a change in the dependent variable
Dialectics of Social Research:Dialectics of Social Research:
Inductive and Deductive TheoryInductive and Deductive Theory
Inductive Reasoning that moves from the particular to the
general...from…
1. a set of observations to…
2. the discovery of a pattern that represents some degree of order among all the given events
Deductive Reasoning that moves from the general to the
specific...from…
1. a pattern that might be logically or theoretically expected to…
2. observations that test whether the pattern actually occurs
Dialectics of Social Research:Dialectics of Social Research:
Quantitative and Qualitative DataQuantitative and Qualitative Data
Most simply put, difference is the distinction between numerical and non-numerical data
Every observation is qualitative at the outset We quantify it to make it easier to aggregate,
compare and summarize the data
Both types of data are useful and legitimate in management research
Elements of Social TheoryElements of Social Theory
Law: universal generalization about classes of facts
Ex: law of gravity—bodies are attracted to each other in proportion to their mass and in inverse proportion to their distance
No social scientific laws that claim universal certainty
Theory: a systematic explanation for observations that relate to a particular aspect of social life...
For example someone might offer a theory of strategy, firm competitiveness, organization, etc.
Elements of Social Theory, Elements of Social Theory, p.2p.2
Proposition: specific conclusions about the relationships among concepts that are derived from axiomatic groundwork
Hypothesis: a specified testable expectation about empirical reality that follows from a more general proposition
Research is designed to test hypotheses Null hypothesis suggests that there is NO relationship
among the variables under study
Traditional model of scienceTraditional model of science
Theory
Operationalization Specification of the exact operations involved in
measuring a variable
For the researcher testing an hypothesis, the meaning of variables is exactly and only what the operational definition specifies
Must be specified with clarity in a way to make observation precise and rigorous
Observation Systematic and rigorous gathering of data to test the
hypothesis
Research DesignPurposes of Research
Exploration:Exploration: typically done for three purposes:
to satisfy the researcher’s curiosity and desire for better understanding
to test the feasibility of undertaking a more extensive study
to develop the methods to be employed in a subsequent study
Description:Description: describe situations and events Census is good example of descriptive research
Explanation:Explanation: the “why?” of events, situations, behavior, attitudes, etc.
Logic of Nomothetic Explanation
NomotheticNomothetic explanation refers to the explanation refers to the accounting of many variations in a given accounting of many variations in a given phenomenonphenomenon
In contrast to…In contrast to…
Idiographic Idiographic explanation that seeks an in-explanation that seeks an in-depth understanding of a single casedepth understanding of a single case
Criteria for Nomothetic Causality
Correlation:Correlation: the variables must be correlated the variables must be correlated
Time order:Time order: the cause takes place before the the cause takes place before the effecteffect
Non-spurious:Non-spurious: the variables are non-spurious the variables are non-spurious
Spurious relationship:Spurious relationship: a coincidental statistical a coincidental statistical correlation between two variables, shown to be correlation between two variables, shown to be caused by some third variablecaused by some third variable
Correlation
Some relationship---or correlation—between the Some relationship---or correlation—between the variables must exist before we can consider variables must exist before we can consider causalitycausality
Correlation:Correlation: empirical relationship between two empirical relationship between two variables such that…variables such that…
Changes in one are associated with changes in Changes in one are associated with changes in the otherthe other
Particular attributes of one variable are Particular attributes of one variable are associated with particular attributes of the associated with particular attributes of the otherother
False Criteria for Nomothetic Causality
Complete causationComplete causation Causation is incomplete and Causation is incomplete and
probabalisticprobabalistic
Exceptional casesExceptional cases Exceptional cases do not disprove Exceptional cases do not disprove
general overall pattern of causationgeneral overall pattern of causation
Majority of casesMajority of cases Causal relationship may be true even if Causal relationship may be true even if
they don’t apply to the majority of they don’t apply to the majority of casescases
Necessary and Sufficient Causes
NecessaryNecessary cause represents a condition that cause represents a condition that mustmust be present for the effect to follow be present for the effect to follow
Ex:Ex: must be female to become pregnant must be female to become pregnant
Ex:Ex: must take college courses to get a must take college courses to get a degree…but…degree…but…
Simply taking courses is not a sufficient causeSimply taking courses is not a sufficient cause Must take the right onesMust take the right ones
Necessary and Sufficient Causes
Sufficient Sufficient cause represents a condition that, cause represents a condition that, if it is present, if it is present, guarantees the effectguarantees the effect in in questionquestion
Not saying that sufficient cause is only Not saying that sufficient cause is only possible cause for effectpossible cause for effect
Ex:Ex: skipping exam in course would be skipping exam in course would be sufficient cause for failing, but students could sufficient cause for failing, but students could fail in other ways, toofail in other ways, too
So, cause can be sufficient but not necessarySo, cause can be sufficient but not necessary
Units of Analysis
No limit to what or whom can be studied
Common social science units of analysis:
Individuals Groups Organizations Social artifacts.
Important:Important: what you ““call”call” a given unit of analysis is almost irrelevant—but you must be clear what that unit “is”“is”
Country level effects or the firms that operate in that country? Firm level strategy or country level strategy? Efficiency of the hotel or the satisfaction of customers?
Reductionism
Tendency to explain everything in terms of a Tendency to explain everything in terms of a particular, narrow set of conceptsparticular, narrow set of concepts
Remember paradigms that predispose Remember paradigms that predispose researcher to a particular explanationresearcher to a particular explanation
Definition of order by coercion, shared values, Definition of order by coercion, shared values, exchangeexchange
Conceptualization, Operationalization & Measurement
ConceptualizationConceptualization The refinement and specification of abstract The refinement and specification of abstract
conceptsconcepts A specific agreed-upon meaning of the A specific agreed-upon meaning of the
concept under studyconcept under study
OperationalizationOperationalization The development of specific research The development of specific research
procedures (operations) that will result in procedures (operations) that will result in empirical observations representing those empirical observations representing those concepts in the real worldconcepts in the real world
Indicators and Dimensions
IndicatorIndicator An observation that we consider as a An observation that we consider as a
reflection of the variable under studyreflection of the variable under study Ex: attending church as an indicator or Ex: attending church as an indicator or
religiosityreligiosity
DimensionDimension A specific aspect of a conceptA specific aspect of a concept Ex:Ex: actionaction aspects of religiosity (attending aspects of religiosity (attending
church, giving money) and church, giving money) and contemplativecontemplative aspects (prayer, etc)aspects (prayer, etc)
Basic Research Outline*
The ProblemThe Problem
PresentPresent a clear, brief statement of the problem, with concepts defined where necessary
ShowShow that the problem is limited to bounds amenable to treatment or test
DescribeDescribe the significance of the problem with reference to specific criteria
Source: Miller, Delbert C. 1991. Handbook of Research Design and Social Handbook of Research Design and Social Measurement, 5th EditionMeasurement, 5th Edition. Newbury Park: Sage Publications, pp. 15-16.
Basic Research Outline
The Theoretical FrameworkThe Theoretical Framework
DescribeDescribe the relationship of the problem to a theoretical framework
DemonstrateDemonstrate the relationship of the problem to previous research
PresentPresent alternate hypotheses considered feasible within the framework of the theory.
Basic Research Outline
The Research Question/HypothesesThe Research Question/Hypotheses
Clearly stateClearly state the research questions or the hypotheses selected for test. (Null and alternate)
IndicateIndicate the significance of test hypotheses to the advancement of research and theory.
DefineDefine concepts or variables (preferably in operational terms).
DescribeDescribe possible mistakes and their consequences.
NoteNote seriousness of possible mistakes.
Basic Research Outline
Design of the Experiment or InquiryDesign of the Experiment or Inquiry
DescribeDescribe ideal design or designs with particular attention to the control of interfering variables
DescribeDescribe selected operational design
SpecifySpecify statistical tests including dummy variables
Basic Research Outline
Sampling ProceduresSampling Procedures
DescribeDescribe experimental and control samples
SpecifySpecify method of drawing or selecting sample
Basic Research Outline
Methods of Gathering DataMethods of Gathering Data
DescribeDescribe measures of quantitative variables showing reliability and validity when these are known. Describe means of identifying qualitative variables
IncludeInclude descriptions of questionnaires or schedules
DescribeDescribe interview procedure
DescribeDescribe use made of pilot study, pretest, trial run.
Basic Research Outline
Working GuideWorking Guide
PreparePrepare working guide with time and budget estimates
EstimateEstimate total person-hours and cost
Basic Research Outline
Analysis of ResultsAnalysis of Results
SpecifySpecify methods of analysis
Basic Research Outline
Interpretation of ResultsInterpretation of Results
DiscussDiscuss how conclusions will be fed back into theory…OR…
InformInform policy/practice.
Basic Research Outline
Publication or Reporting Publication or Reporting Plans...Communication PlansPlans...Communication Plans
MonographMonograph, Executive summary
TestimonyTestimony to policy makers.
PresentationsPresentations to institutions, non-governmental agencies, media, public.
JournalJournal publication