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Research Scorecard March 2014

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Page 1: Scoreboard

Research ScorecardMarch 2014

Page 2: Scoreboard

2

Strong service platform

Intensive Research

Dedicated team for fundamental, derivative

and technical research

Total 26 fundamental research analysts

covering 198 companies across sectors

Customised research solutions – for

investing or trading using cash, equities or

derivatives

Dedicated equity advisors to guide you on

the markets

Online and mobile platforms for trading

and account tracking

Online reporting systems for tracking

transactions, profitability, securities

position and cash movement

Institutional services offered to our HNI

clients

Block deals

VWAP trading

Compliance reporting and monitoring

services for employee accounts

Key pillars of our equity proposition

Institutional & Corporate Services

Offer innovative and unique products

to cater to every client’s need

Provide flexibility in product and

service features

Execution

Margins

Liquidity

Innovative & flexible products

Page 3: Scoreboard

3

Research Philosophy

Page 4: Scoreboard

4

Stock selection basis

Fundamentals

Financials of the company

Growth prospects of the industry and

company

Quality of management

Competitive landscape

Valuations

Stock price vis-à-vis:

Peers

Earnings quality

Intrinsic value

Momentum

Stock price movement vis-à-vis market

and historical averages

Transaction volume

Technicals

Chart based parameters

Moving average price

Trend reversals

Historical cycles

Patterns

Page 5: Scoreboard

5

Research catering to client needs

Short term Trading

Medium term Investing

Long term Investing

Fundamentals

Intra – day Trading

Momentum Technicals

High Low Absent

Page 6: Scoreboard

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Research basket

Short term Trading

Medium term Investing

Long term Investing

Intra – day Trading

Three to five years perspective – Equity model portfolio

Twelve to 15 month perspective – Detailed company reports

Others – Muhurat Picks and Annual Strategy Picks

Three months perspective

Pick of the Week

Seven to 30 days perspective

Monthly and Weekly Calls – Technical & Derivatives

Stocks on the Move, Positional Derivatives and Volatility Insight

One to three days perspective

Daily Calls – Technical, Momentum and Derivatives

Intra-day Calls – BTST, Margin and Derivatives

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Research Performance – Long Term Investing

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Overall Basket

Coverage: 198 companies

Target achieved: 131 companies (66% strike rate)

Detailed Company Coverage

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Nano Nivesh

Initiated: 6 companies

Company Initiation price CMP Fair Value Return (YTD%) Comment Date of initiation

Atul Auto 97 354 280 264.9

The initiation fair value price had been achieved onNovember 29, 2012. This was | 160-180 and thensubsequently upgraded to | 205 and |280.These targetprices have been achieved. We have advised all long-term investors to hold on to the stock while short-terminvestors have been advised to book 50% profit in thestock.

September 14, 2012

Setco Automotive 108 89 102 -17.9

The stock is trading below the recommended price. Wehave revised our target price downwards to | 102 fromearlier fair value price of | 140-150. We continue to havea positive view on Setco

March 20, 2013

Dlink India 27 29 40 6.9We remain bullish on the stock and maintain our fairvalue assessment. Investors can continue to hold thestock

March 20, 2013

Wim Plast 329 603 480 83.3

We remain positive on the stock based on the expectedstrong earnings in the next two years and attractivemultiples. We advise our long term investors to hold onto the stock till our next update.

April 2, 2013

Siyaram Silk Mills 306 309 406-449 1.0Keeping the low liquidity nature of the stock in mind,investors can use dips to rationally buy the stock

December 13, 2012

Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances 262 299 335 14.1 March 3, 2014

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Equity Model Portfolio (rejigged on December 27, 2013) – Large CapEarlier Now

Name of the company Weightage(%)Auto 9Maruti Suzuki 5Tata Motors DVR 4BFSI 22HDFC 6HDFC Bank 6SBI 6Axis Bank 4Infrastructure 5L & T 5FMCG 13Nestle 3ITC 10Metals & Mining 4Coal India 2Hindustan Zinc 2Oil and Gas 11ONGC 3Reliance 8Pharma 7Lupin 3Sun Pharma 4IT 18Infosys 6TCS 8Wipro 4Telecom 4Bharti Airtel 4Media 4Zee Entertainment 4Retail 3Titan 3Total 100

Name of the company Weightage(%)Auto 12Maruti Suzuki 5Tata Motors DVR 4Bajaj Auto 3BFSI 19HDFC 6HDFC Bank 6SBI 3Axis Bank 4Power, Infrastructure & Cement 8L & T 5Ultratech Cement 3FMCG 13Nestle 3ITC 10Metals & Mining 3NMDC 3Oil and Gas 10Reliance 10Pharma 7Lupin 3Sun Pharma 4IT 19Infosys 7TCS 8Wipro 4Telecom 3Bharti Airtel 3Media 3Zee Entertainment 3Retail 3Titan 3Total 100

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Equity Model Portfolio (rejigged on December 27, 2013) – MidcapEarlier Now

# Indicative diversified portfolio has 70% weightage to large cap and 30% to midcap

Name of the company Weightage(%)Auto 6Exide Ind. 6IT 12Info Edge 6Eclerx 6BFSI 16J&K Bank 8Yes Bank 8FMCG 20Kansai Nerolac 8Dabur India 6Tata Global Beverages 6Pharma 16Cadilla 8Glenmark 8Retail 6Navneet Publications 6Media 6Sun TV 6Capital Goods 6Cummins 6Realty/Infrasturcture 12Container Corporation of India 6Oberoi Realty 6Total 100

Name of the company Weightage(%)Auto 8Bosch 8IT 6Info Edge 6BFSI 16J&K Bank 8IndusInd Bank 8FMCG 20Kansai Nerolac 8Dabur 6Tata Global Beverages 6Pharma 14Cadilla 8Natco Pharma 6Retail 6Navneet Publications 6Media 6Sun TV 6Capital Goods 6Cummins 6Realty/Infrasturcture/Cement 18Container Corporation of India 6Oberoi Realty 6Shree Cement 6Total 100

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Equity Model Portfolio

Performance (return since inception)#

All the three portfolios continue to outperform their respective benchmark indices, indicating that

our picks have been more consistent and stable vis-à-vis their respective indices on an average

As on March 31, 2014

# includes the dividend yield

44.7

26.2

39.4

27.5

11.9

20.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

Large Cap Midcap Diversified

%

Portfolio Benchmark

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Value as on March 31, 2014

SIP in all three portfolios (large cap, midcap and diversified portfolio) continue to outperform

their SIP in the respective index

Assuming | 1,00,000 invested as SIP at the end of every month

Start date of SIP is June 30, 2011

SIP in Model Portfolio

3,40

0,00

0

3,40

0,00

0

4,19

8,53

6

4,26

5,97

5

4,18

6,87

6

3,89

6,06

2

3,80

7,76

1

3,40

0,00

0

3,82

3,81

1

2,600,000

2,800,000

3,000,000

3,200,000

3,400,000

3,600,000

3,800,000

4,000,000

Largecap Midcap Divesified

|

Investment Value of Investment in Portfolio Value if invested in Benchmark

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Recommended on October 29, 2013

Muhurat Picks – Recommended in October, 2013

Reco price Exit price/CMP Return (%) StatusSBI 1705 1872 9.8 Booked ProfitBajaj Electricals 155 280 80.6 Booked ProfitEntertainment Network 290 360 24.1 Booked ProfitWipro 478 570 19.2 Booked ProfitBajaj Auto 2075 2023 -2.5 Open

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Recommended on December 27, 2013

Yearly Strategy picks – Fundamental

Scrip Name Reco Pricexit price/CMP Return (%) StatusBajaj Auto 1935 2023 4.5 OpenIndusInd Bank 422 505 19.7 Booked ProfitIdea Cellular 168 146.6 -12.7 OpenITC 322 345 7.3 OpenMarico 221 211 -4.5 OpenShree Cements 4399 5080 15.5 Booked ProfitOberoi Realty 231 218 -5.6 OpenTitan Industries 229 263 14.8 Open

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Yearly Technical picks

Technical Outlook 2014

• Recommendations: 10

• Open: 3

• Strike Rate: 100%

• Average Return on positive calls: 19.00%

Rec. Date Stock Recommen Rec Price Target Stoploss % Profit/Loss CommentJan-14 Ipca Lab 700.0 890.0 595.0 27.0 Target AchievedJan-14 Cummins India 458.0 575.0 380.0 26.0 Target AchievedJan-14 Kesoram Ind 68.0 95.0 51.0 19.0 Profit booked at 80.75Jan-14 Bosch 9600.0 12350.0 8000.0 18.7 Profit Booked at 11300Jan-14 CMC 1510.0 1940.0 1290.0 17.0 Book profit at 1765Jan-14 Tata Motors 368.0 440.0 315.0 13.0 Book 50% profit at 415Jan-14 TCS 2090.0 2500.0 1860.0 12.0 Book 50% profit at 2340Jan-14 JB Chemical 120.0 170.0 97.0 OpenJan-14 Colgate 1282.0 1580.0 1140.0 OpenJan-14 Tata Global 145.0 225.0 115.0 Open

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Research Performance – Medium Term Investing

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Techno Funda picks

As on Date Performance

Recommendations: 25

Open: 3

Strike Rate: 77%

Average Return on positive calls: 17.0%

Average Return on negative calls: -4.3%

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Research Performance – Short Term Trading

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Technical Breakout

As on Date Performance

Recommendations : 71

Open: 0

Strike rate:69%

Average return on positive calls: 14.5%

Average return on negative calls: -7.5%

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Technical Delivery Call

March Performance

Recommendations : 25

Open: 4

Strike rate:84%

Average return on positive calls: 10.5%

Average return on negative calls: -3.5%

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Monthly Technical Sectoral

March Performance

Recommendations : 7

Open: 0

Strike rate: 100%

Average return on positive cash calls: 11.3%

YTD Performance

Recommendations : 76

Open: 0

Strike rate:82%

Average return on positive cash calls : 10.2%

Average return on negative cash calls : -4.1%

Average return on positive future calls : 7.0%

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Monthly Call

March Performance

Recommendations : 4

No Trade: 0

Strike Rate: 100%

Average return on positive calls : 9.0%

YTD Performance

Recommendations : 30

No Trade: 4

Strike rate:83%

Average return on positive calls : 7.5%

Average return on negative calls : -2.9%

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Weekly Call

March Performance

Recommendations: 11

No Trade: 2

Strike Rate:86%

Average return on positive calls : 7.0%

Average return on negative calls : -4.0%

YTD Performance

Recommendations : 107

No Trade: 25

Strike rate:81%

Average return on positive calls : 6.0%

Average return on negative calls : -2.8%

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Weekly Technical Calls

March Performance

Recommendations: 7

Strike Rate: 86%

Average return on positive cash calls : 12.0%

Average return on negative cash calls : -2.0%

YTD PerformanceRecommendations : 79

Closed at cost: 5

Strike rate:84%

Average return on positive cash calls : 9.0%

Average return on negative cash calls : -3.2%

Average return on positive future calls : 3.7%

Average return on negative future calls : -2.8%

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Monthly Derivatives

March Performance

Recommendations: 5

Strike Rate: 80%

Average Return per call: 6%

Average Profit per call : |15540

YTD Performance

Recommendations: 55

Strike Rate: 84%

Average Return per call: 4.5%

Average Profit per call: |12200

Page 27: Scoreboard

March Performance

Number of strategies recommended: 8

Positive payoff: 4

Not initiated/Exit at cost : 1

Strike rate: 58%

Net profit/(Loss): | 14575

Weekly Derivative Calls

Number of strategies recommended: 92

Positive payoff: 59

Not initiated/Exit at cost: 23

Strike rate: 86%

Net profit: | 378000

Average profit per call: | 5040

YTD Performance

Page 28: Scoreboard

YTD Performance

Strike rate : 83%

Return per call: 7.4%

Stock in focus

YTD Performance

Date Instrument Action Price Target Stop Loss Closure date Exit Price Retrun % Profit/Loss

25-Apr-13 Dabur Cash 142 165 132 7-May-13 163 15% Profit booked16-May-13 IDFC Cash 157 180 147 31-May-13 147 -6% SL Triggered

Page 29: Scoreboard

March Performance

No. of Calls : 16

Open : 4

Strike rate: 100%

Average return per call : 12%

Stock trader

YTD Performance

Number of strategies recommended: 65

Positive payoff: 47

Open : 4

Not initiated/Exit at cost: 4

Strike rate: 84%

Net profit: | 1139825

Average return per call: 6%

Page 30: Scoreboard

YTD Performance

No. of Strategies: 18

Open : 1

Strike rate (YTD): 75%

Average profit per call (YTD): | 2400

Alpha Trades

YTD Performance

No. of Strategies: 38

Open : 1

Strike rate (YTD): 76%

Average profit per call (YTD): | 4550

Volatility Insights

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Research Performance – Intra Day Trading

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March Performance

Trading Calls

Strike rate of 75%

Trading Derivatives/Margin CallsTotal calls 442Positive Payoff 328Open 3Strike rate 75%

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Disclaimer

ICICI Securities Ltd., Member of National Stock Exchange of India Ltd., SEBI Regn. No. INB 230773037 (CM),

SEBI Regn. No. INF 230773037 (F&O),SEBI Regn No. INE230773037 (CD), Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd., SEBI

Regn. No. INB011286854 (CM) , SEBI Regn No. INF010773035 (F&O). AMFI Regn. No.: ARN-0845, Corporate

Agent of ICICI Prudential& ICICI Lombard, Composite Corporate Agent License No. 2613930. Registered office

of I-Sec is at ICICI Securities Ltd. - ICICI Centre, H. T. Parekh Marg, Churchgate, Mumbai - 400020, India.

Kindly read the Risk Disclosure Documents carefully before investing in Equity Shares, Derivatives or other

instruments traded on the Stock Exchanges. Please note that Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market

risks, read the all scheme related documents carefully before investing for full understanding and detail.

Insurance is the subject matter of solicitation. ICICI Securities Ltd. does not underwrite the risk or act as an

insurer. ICICI Securities is a distributor of Insurance and Mutual funds and acts as a Syndicate, Sub -Syndicate

member for IPO. The contents herein above shall not be considered as an invitation or persuasion to trade or

invest. Investors should make independent judgment with regard suitability, profitability, and fitness of any

product or service offered herein above. I-Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any

kind arising out of any actions taken in reliance thereon. ICICI Securities Limited is not providing the service of

Portfolio Management Services (Discretionary or Non Discretionary) to its clients.

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Disclaimer

The information provided is not intended to be used by investors as the sole basis for investment decisions,

who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions

and needs of specific investor. The information provided may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of

independent judgment by any investor. The investor should independently evaluate the investment risks and

make independent judgment with regard suitability, profitability, and fitness of any product or service offered

herein above.

Some of the products described hereinabove may be developed and offered by third parties ('third party

products'), which I-Sec may be making available to you. I-Sec does not endorse or guarantee these third party

products in any manner and will not be liable for their performance or otherwise. Investors' capital may not be

guaranteed and they could lose all or substantial portion of their investment. The products described in this

document may not be protected against sovereign risk including risks arising from any changes in applicable

Indian or other relevant laws, represent speculative investments and may involve a high degree of risk.