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    A u s t r A l i A n C e n t r e o n C h i n A i n t h e W o r l d

    Anu Cg

    Aa & PaccPrepared by Scott Dewar

    Australia and China and the United States

    Responding to changing great power dynamics

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    Aaa C Ca W (CiW) 3

    C o n t e n t s

    Introduction 3

    Chinas rise - the story so far 3

    Implications for Australia 5

    Implications for others 6What about America? 7

    The question 9

    Hugh Whites argument 9

    Whites analysis 10

    Whites policy recommendation 13

    A aav 15

    In conclusion 19

    Notes 20

    Scott Dewar is an employee o the Australian Department o Foreign Aairs and Trade(DFAT). This paper was prepared while he was a Visiting Fell ow at the Australian Centre on

    China in the World, where he was on secondment rom DFAT. He previously worked in the

    Oces o Prime Ministers Rudd and Gillard. The views expressed in this piece are his own

    personal views and do not represent the views o the Australian Government, the AustralianCentre on China in the World or The Australian National University.

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    Australia and China and the United States 5

    From an overall judgement, 2009 was a year where the new situation in i nternational relations,new problems and new trends were not uncommon. It was also a year where Chinas voice

    and power steadily grew. It was a year where Chinas level o participation in regional and global

    aairs constantly deepened. And it was a year where China rode the wind o the great 60 year

    celebration, continued to undertake the work o a responsible great power, continued to play apositive role, and received more positive assessments domestically and abroad.23

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    Chinas international prestige and i nfuence grew signicantly [over the period o the last Five-Year Plan]. We played an important and constructive role in international aairs; eectively

    saeguarded our national sovereignty, security and development interests; and made major

    progress in our all-around diplomacy.24

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    Ca pmac acvm, vpm a gba cmc gagm av b accmpab gca cag C am c, Pp lba Am (PlA). t mb m a am a c wg a c 1980 a 1990.18 B ag w Cagwg afc, c bg a a gw. A naa Pp Cg Mac 2011, wa ac a c bg w ca 12.7 p c v pv a cga g- ag aa ca c bg.19 Ca acg w a cagpca capab. t fg a -ga g-g cmba aca a xamp. t av xpag a vpg aca ca, w c m a bgvp a sc A Cp (Ca agc m cp) vg vpm w agc wap. C c a a vp. t PlA g ak ab Pp

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    Australia and China and the United States 9

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    Australia and China and the United States 13

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    Australia and China and the United States 19

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    Aaa C Ca W (CiW) 21

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