SDGs and the importance of labour market data & research

Lawrence Jeff JohnsonDeputy Director, Research DepartmentInternational Labour Organization (ILO), Geneva

28 to 29 October 2015Tbilisi, Georgia

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I. Introduction

II. Regional labour market trends

III. Data gaps

IV. Global experience on jobs diagnostics, strategy and implementation

Research Department, ILO - 2015

Outline

Global Employment Trends Model 3

I. Introduction

Building on the progress of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)Target 1B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

• Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex

• The share of working poor (US$1.25 a day) in total employment

• Labour productivity

• Vulnerable employment

Global - vulnerable employment and rate (%)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

40.0

50.0

60.0

Vulnerable Employment (thousands) Vulnerable Employment Rate (%)

Vu

lner

ably

Em

plo

yed

(t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Tota

l Share

of V

uln

era

bly

Em

plo

yed in

Tota

l E

mplo

yed (%

)

Source: ILO - Trends Econometric Models, July 2015.

UNEMPLOYMENTis only the tip of the iceberg

Without workAvailable for workSeeking work

VULNERABLE EMPLOYMENT

Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS1 out of 5 are vulnerably employed

Global Employment Trends Model 6

Post-2015 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Decent work for all - at the heart of achieving the SDGs in the next 15 years

Sustainable Development Goal 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all

Global Employment Trends Model 7

Although the ILO's primary focus and lead will be on Goal 8, its actions will also have an impact on other goals and targets:

Post-2015 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

8Research Department, ILO - 2015

II. Regional trends: growth performance

Source: ILO Research Department based on the Conference Board.

Average GDP growth in Central Asia and Eastern Europe

9Research Department, ILO - 2015

Wage and salaried employment comprise close to 80 per cent of all employment in the region

Source: World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO), May 2015.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1991 2000 2007 2014

Wag

e an

d sa

lari

ed e

mpl

oym

ent

(% o

f tot

al e

mpl

oym

ent)

10Research Department, ILO - 2015

Meanwhile, labour force participation rates are the lowest in Moldova (compared to the 6 countries in consideration)

Source: ILO Statistics 2015.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Armenia 59 58.5 59.2 61.6 62.1 62.6 63 63.3

Azerbaijan 64.2 64.2 64.8 64.5 65 65.6 66.1 66.6

Belarus 55.5 55.1 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.7 56 56.2

Georgia 63.4 63.5 63.8 64 64.3 64.7 65 65.4

Moldova 44.4 43.9 42 41 41.6 40 40.7 41.3

Ukraine 58.2 58.3 58.4 58.6 58.9 59.1 59.4 59.6

Note: * ILO estimates and projections

Labour force participations rates (%), selected countries

11Research Department, ILO - 2015

Vulnerable employment in Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS has been trending downwards

Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2015p29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

Vulnerable employment (millions) - Total Share of vulnerable employment in total employment (%) - Total

Vul

nera

ble

empl

oym

ent (

mill

ions

)Share of vulnerable em

ployment in total em

ployment (%

)

Vulnerable Employment: 22.4 % (2000)

Vulnerable Employment: 18.9 % (2015)

12Research Department, ILO - 2015

While the ILO’s forecast show that youth unemployment rate is expected to edge up in the coming years

Youth unemployment rate in Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS (%)

Source: Trends Econometric Models, ILO Research Department 2015.

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Yout

h un

empl

oym

ent

rate

(%)

13Research Department, ILO - 2015

Labour productivity growth has been among the highest in the 6 countries we are examining today

Note: the bars refer to growth in labour productivity per person employed.

Source: ILO Research Department based on the Conference Board.

A moment of clarity…

Virtuous Spiral

Increased Productivity

Increased Real Wages

Increased Earnings

Poverty Alleviation

Productivity & Output Growth

Increased Well-Being & Diminished Inequality

Increased Investments & Demand

Sustainable & Expanding Growth

Decent Work & Employment

Growth

Poverty Alleviation

IncreasedReal Earnings & Social Benefits

Technological Improvements

Increased Demand, Increased Output

Increased Demand & Well-Being

Increased Technological Change

17Research Department, ILO - 2015

III. Data gaps

Data availability – ILO Statistics

Micro-data Yearly Indicators* Short-term IndicatorsSchool to Work Transition Surveys (SWTS)

Labour Force Survey 2014Labour Force Survey 2008

Azerbaijan Labour Force Survey 2011 Yes Yes (latest: 2015 Q1) Yes (2005)

BelarusDecentralized state statistical records 2014

Yes Yes (latest: 2015 Q2) No

Georgia Yes Yes (latest: 2014 Q3)** NoEarnings and labour cost survey 2013Labour Force Survey 2010

Yes

Notes: * Frequency of coverage varies by country and indicator** Only includes earnings indicator

Ukraine Yes (latest: Q1 2014) Yes (2013)

Armenia Yes Yes (latest: Q4 2013) Yes (2012 & 2014)

Moldova Yes Yes (latest: 2015 Q1) Yes (2013)

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Highlights from the World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) 2015:

• Standard employment model has become less and less dominant (less than one in four jobs)

• Changing nature of work and rising incidence of non-standard employment and the challenge of rising income inequality.

Research Department, ILO - 2015

IV. Global experience from ILO research

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• The need for labour market policies and institutions to adapt to take into account new forms of employment relationships.

• The importance of social protection -- providing coverage to non-standard forms of work through policy innovations.

Research Department, ILO - 2015

IV. Global experience from ILO research (contd.)

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The World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) 2016 will look at:

Progress since the MDGs and challenges that lie ahead to achieve the SDGs by 2030

The challenge of reducing extreme poverty ($1.25 per day) by 2030 and the role more and better jobs play

Research Department, ILO - 2015

IV. Global experience from ILO research (forthcoming)

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For comments/suggestions, please contact me at: johnsonl@ilo.org

Research Department, ILO - 2015

Thank you!!