se florida demograghic trends dick ogburn
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Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast FloridaTRANSCRIPT
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Demographic and Economic Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast FloridaCharacteristics of Southeast Florida
South Florida Regional Planning CouncilSouth Florida Regional Planning Council
www.sfrpc.com2
Overview• Population dynamics in all of Southeast Florida (the seven counties
from Monroe in the south to Indian River in the north) are driven by:o Growth – The region has consistently grown more quickly than
the nation, even if it now grows more slowly than the State of Florida as a whole.
o Mobility – International migration has been the largest source of net growth, but domestic inflows and outflows also contribute to the “pulse” of growth.
o Changes in composition – Migration, whether international or domestic, brings with it potential shifts in the age, race/ethnic and cultural make-up of the region.
o Increasing spatial integration – commuting patterns and county-to-county migration show rising levels of cross-county movement, especially within the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach MSA, but also moving north within the region.
• Despite the current downturn, when viewed on a competitive basis around the country, Southeast Florida continues to offer advantages that could position it well to resume growth when the national economy rebounds.
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Personal Income• Per capita personal income in Southeast Florida in 2009 was
$43,057, which was higher than the State of Florida ($38,965) and national ($39,635) averages. Still, the region was already feeling the economic downturn, as per capita income in 2009 was down from $43,887 in 2007 and $44,829 in 2008. o Within the region, per capita income in 2009 ranged from
$29,526 in St. Lucie County to $60,174 in Monroe County.o Southeast Florida depends on Dividends, Interest and Rent for a
larger portion of its personal income (30.0%) than either the State of Florida (26.9%) or the nation (18.0%).
o Both Indian River County and Martin County derived over half of personal income from this category in 2009, followed by Monroe County (45.4%) and Palm Beach County (43.7%).
o Transfer payments were highest as a proportion of overall personal income in St. Lucie County (27.9%) and Miami-Dade County (21.1%), compared to only 17.5% nationally.
o The per capita value of transfer payments was highest in Indian River County ($9,191) and Martin County ($8,644), where both Social Security and Medicare payments were relatively high.
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Southeast Florida Real Per Capita Income 1990-2009 ($2009)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (April, 2011).
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Monroe M-Dade Brow ard
P Beach Martin St Lucie
I River Region Florida
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Southeast Florida Per Capita Income by Source 2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (April, 2011).
26,235
21,746 24,655
24,45619,624
13,936
16,711
22,700 21,05025,548
6,637
7,6776,472
7,889
8,644
8,242
9,191
7,4437,440
6,94427,302
6,93410,058
25,11630,444
7,348
30,401
12,915 10,4757,143
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade
Broward PalmBeach
Martin St. Lucie IndianRiver
Region Florida US
Net Earnings Transfer Payments Dividends, Interest, and Rent
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Southeast Florida Per Capita Transfer Receipts by Type 2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (April, 2011).
2,588
1,608
2,042
3,1564,017
3,1144,125
2,2412,612 2,279
2,048
2,766
2,132
2,633
2,753
2,389
2,920
2,5352,192
1,629
657
1,302
755
699
617
898
633
965 916
1,277
4571,054 589
488361
723
508754 692 710
244 352334
321 276413
365 340 320 424
464 414 437 409 438 523 457 426 525 444
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade Brow ard Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River Region Florida US
Retirement & Disability Insurance Benefit P ayments Medicare
P ublic Assistance Medical Care / Other Medical Income Maintenance Benefit P ayments
Unemployment Insurance Benefit P ayments Veterans / Other Benefit P ayments
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Southeast Florida % of Population Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and 2010 American Community Survey.
10.2%
18.0%
11.5%9.9%
8.8%
13.4%
9.3%
13.8%12.5% 12.4%
11.1%
20.4%
14.6% 14.2%
10.0%
18.0%
14.6%
16.8% 16.5%15.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida US
1999 2010 % With Income Below Poverty Level
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Southeast Florida % of Elderly Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and 2010 American Community Survey.
8.8%
18.9%
10.0%
6.6%5.2%
7.7%
5.7%
11.4%
9.1%9.9%10.0%
22.4%
12.1%
7.9%6.9%
8.4%6.7%
13.8%
9.9%9.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida US
1999 2010 Elderly (65+)% With Income Below Poverty Level
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Southeast Florida % of Children Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and 2010 American Community Survey.
12.2%
23.2%
15.7%14.6% 14.3%
21.2%
14.3%
18.9%17.6%
16.6%
8.7%
25.4%
19.7%
22.7%
10.5%
28.8%27.2%
22.9% 23.5%21.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida US
1999 2010 Children (0-17) % With Income Below Poverty Level
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The Economic Downturn• As the economy slowed down, both in the nation and in Southeast
Florida, the job picture worsened dramatically:o Between Dec/07 and Jan/10, over 213,000 jobs were lost in the 7-
county region, a reduction of 7.1%.o Of that total, almost 143,000 jobs were lost in South Florida
(6.6%) and over 70,000 were lost in the Treasure Coast Region (8.4%).
o During that period, the region’s unemployment rate rose from 4.7% to 11.0%. In Aug/10, the unemployment rate reached 12.1% in South Florida and 13.0% in the Treasure Coast. As of Dec/11, the region’s rate was still at 9.7%.
o There were over 310,000 unemployed in Dec/11, down from 397,000 in Aug/10, but up from 147,000 in Dec/07 (111%).
• Since December 2007, the number of Southeast Florida residents enrolled for public assistance rose as well. In Nov/11, there were 654,000 households receiving food stamps worth almost $156 million, three times the $51 million in Dec/07.
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Southeast Florida Employment, 2007-11
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
South Florida
2.00
2.02
2.04
2.06
2.08
2.10
2.12
2.14
2.16
2.18
Jan-07M
ar-07M
ay-07Jul-07S
ep-07N
ov-07Jan-08M
ar-08M
ay-08Jul-08S
ep-08N
ov-08Jan-09M
ar-09M
ay-09Jul-09S
ep-09N
ov-09Jan-10M
ar-10M
ay-10Jul-10S
ep-10N
ov-10Jan-11M
ar-11M
ay-11Jul-11S
ep-11N
ov-11
Mill
ion
s
Treasure Coast
0.74
0.76
0.78
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.86
Jan-07M
ar-07M
ay-07Jul-07S
ep-07N
ov-07Jan-08M
ar-08M
ay-08Jul-08S
ep-08N
ov-08Jan-09M
ar-09M
ay-09Jul-09S
ep-09N
ov-09Jan-10M
ar-10M
ay-10Jul-10S
ep-10N
ov-10Jan-11M
ar-11M
ay-11Jul-11S
ep-11N
ov-11
Mill
ion
s
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Southeast Florida Unemployment Rate, 2007-11
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
South Florida
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan-07A
pr-07Jul-07O
ct-07Jan-08A
pr-08Jul-08O
ct-08Jan-09A
pr-09Jul-09O
ct-09Jan-10A
pr-10Jul-10O
ct-10Jan-11A
pr-11Jul-11O
ct-11
Treasure Coast
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan-07A
pr-07Jul-07O
ct-07Jan-08A
pr-08Jul-08O
ct-08Jan-09A
pr-09Jul-09O
ct-09Jan-10A
pr-10Jul-10O
ct-10Jan-11A
pr-11Jul-11O
ct-11
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Southeast FloridaMonthly Value of Food Stamp Benefits, 2007-11
Source: Florida Department of Children and Families (December, 2011)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Jan-07F
eb-07M
ar-07A
pr-07M
ay-07Jun-07Jul-07A
ug-07S
ep-07O
ct-07N
ov-07D
ec-07Jan-08F
eb-08M
ar-08A
pr-08M
ay-08Jun-08Jul-08A
ug-08S
ep-08O
ct-08N
ov-08D
ec-08Jan-09F
eb-09M
ar-09A
pr-09M
ay-09Jun-09Jul-09A
ug-09S
ep-09O
ct-09N
ov-09D
ec-09Jan-10F
eb-10M
ar-10A
pr-10M
ay-10Jun-10Jul-10A
ug-10S
ep-10O
ct-10N
ov-10D
ec-10Jan-11F
eb-11M
ar-11A
pr-11M
ay-11Jun-11Jul-11A
ug-11S
ep-11O
ct-11N
ov-11M
illio
ns
Treasure Coast Region
South Florida Region
Issuance ($)
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Southeast FloridaMedian Housing Value ($), 2005-2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Monroe Miami-Dade Brow ard
Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie
Indian River Florida United States
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Resident Population Growth, 2000-10
Growth MonroeMiami-Dade Broward
Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie
Indian River
SoutheastFlorida Florida US
Absolute -6,499 242,656 125,048 188,943 19,587 85,094 25,081 679,910 2,818,486 27,323,632
(%) -8.2% 10.8% 7.7% 16.7% 15.5% 44.2% 22.2% 12.3% 17.6% 9.7%
Source: US Bureau of the Census
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida US
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Southeast Florida – Components of Population Change2000 to 2010
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (May, 2011)
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade Brow ard Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida
Natural Increase Net Migration
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Southeast FloridaPlace of Birth, 2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey.
11,349
1,302,205
558,399
306,611
13,15539,588 16,202
2,247,509
3,658,043
311,374
1,848,428
7,961,693
21,824 812,645 564,889379,317 39,659
95,01639,612 1,952,962
6,635,477
39,955,854
83,418,099
609,515
579,110
38,452
91,832 138,073
80,072
181,747,947
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade Brow ard Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River Region Florida US
Foreign born Born outside the US
Born in other state in the US Born in state of residence
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Southeast FloridaForeign-Born Population, 1980-2010
Sources: US Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses, 2010 American Community Survey.
766,329
441,614
1,207,943
598,427
1,806,370
441,139
2,247,509
2,728,795
538,665
3,267,460
445,696
3,713,156
258,305
3,971,461
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 Change 1980-90 1990 Change 1990-00 2000 Change 2000-10 2010
Foreign-born Native
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Origin of the Foreign-Born• In 2010, 87.2% of the region’s 2.2 million foreign-
born residents came from Latin America. That included 1.1 million from the Caribbean, 434,000 from South America, and 329,000 from Central America.
• Countries of origin for the largest number of foreign-born residents of the region included Cuba (647,000), Haiti (193,000), Colombia (154,000), Jamaica (128,000), and Nicaragua (95,000).
• Other countries with a significant presence in 2010 included Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, Peru and the Dominican Republic, each with more than 50,000 residents.
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Southeast FloridaJourney to Work Flows, 2009
County of Residence
County of Work – Primary Jobs
Indian River St Lucie Martin
Palm Beach Broward
Miami-Dade Monroe
Out of Region
Total Workers
Indian River 23,272 3,755 1,082 2,558 2,181 1,647 32 10,274 45,101
St. Lucie 4,401 35,625 12,219 10,451 3,802 3,072 66 14,928 84,564
Martin 441 4,351 19,227 10,294 2,423 1,911 40 9,049 47,736
Palm Beach 1,075 3,058 4,892 292,921 61,418 27,818 413 56,989 448,584
Broward 897 1,580 1,469 57,346 414,218 129,533 1,004 68,322 674,369
Miami-Dade 777 1,5019 1,489 24,591 94,575 656,220 3,533 59,119 841,805
Monroe 38 68 82 1,002 2,790 4,918 20,259 2,865 32,022
Out of Region 9,682 9,833 6,555 51,771 66,470 59,072 2,064 205,447
Total Jobs 40,583 59,771 47,015 450,934 647,877 884,191 27,411 221,846 2,379,628
Source: US Bureau of the Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, On the Map.
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Changing Composition - Race/Ethnicity
• There is enormous diversity within the categories we use to present data on race and ethnicity. The Black or African American population includes a large number of people from the Caribbean and Central and South America, and the Hispanic or Latino population is very diverse within.
• Between 2000 and 2010 there was continued rapid growth of the Hispanic (658,000) and non-Hispanic Black or African American (218,000) populations in Southeast Florida, and an absolute decrease in the non-Hispanic White population (-229,000).
• In 2010, the race/ethnic composition of Southeast Florida was made up of 39% Hispanic or Latino, 38% non-Hispanic White, 19% non-Hispanic Black or African American, and 4% other non-Hispanic. About 40% of the Hispanic population was born in the United States.
• In 2000, the non-Hispanic White population represented 47% of the regional total, down from 57% in 1990. In other words, the non-Hispanic White population of Southeast Florida ceased to be the majority sometime in the 1990s, due mostly to the growth of the Hispanic population in Miami-Dade County.
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Southeast FloridaRacial and Ethnic Composition of the Population, 2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St.Lucie Indian River Region Florida US
White NH Black, African American NH
Asian NH Other Race NH
Two or More Races NH Hispanic or Latino (all races)
"Hispanic or Latino" includes people of all races. All racial data refer to those who answered "Not Hispanic or Latino" (NH). Individual racial categories reflect totals only for those who marked a single racial category, except the one labeled "Two or More Races NH."
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Southeast FloridaChange in Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000-10
Source: US Bureau of the Census.
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St.Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida US
White NH Black, African American NH
Asian NH Other Race NH
Two or More Races NH Hispanic or Latino (all races)
"Hispanic or Latino" includes people of all races. All racial data refer to those who answered "Not Hispanic or Latino" (NH). Individual racial categories reflect totals only for those who marked a single racial category, except the one labeled "Two or More Races NH."
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Southeast Florida Age Distribution, 2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River SE Florida Florida UnitedStates
Under 5 5 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 84 85 or more
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Southeast Florida - Median Age, 1990-2010
Source: US Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Monroe Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River Florida US
1990 2000 2010
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Southeast FloridaChange in Age Composition by Gender, 2000-10
Source: US Bureau of the Census
-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years
70 to 74 years
75 to 79 years
80 to 84 years
85 years and over
Male
Female
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Southeast Florida Growth, 1920-2040
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (June 2011)
Year Resident Absolute New Residents Average Annual
(April 1) Population Period Growth per Day Rate of Growth
1920 93,978
1930 247,346 1920/30 153,368 42.0 10.16%
1940 428,723 1930/40 181,377 49.7 5.65%
1950 763,521 1940/50 334,798 91.7 5.94%
1960 1,626,555 1950/60 863,034 236.3 7.86%
1970 2,404,094 1960/70 777,539 212.9 3.98%
1980 3,494,804 1970/80 1,090,710 298.6 3.81%
1990 4,475,531 1980/90 980,727 268.5 2.50%
2000 5,519,950 1990/00 1,044,419 285.9 2.12%
2010 6,199,860 2000/10 679,910 186.1 1.17%
2020 6,793,500 2010/20 593,640 162.5 0.92%
2030 7,390,900 2020/30 597,400 163.6 0.85%
2040 7,898,800 2030/40 507,100 138.8 0.67%
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Changing Composition - Age• Current projections indicate that, over the next 2
decades, the population 65 and older in Southeast Florida will grow more than any other age cohort, as it absorbs the “baby boom” generation.
• The Region’s elderly are expected to increase by over 688,000 (58%), to over 1.7 million, rising from 16.6% of the total in 2010 to 23.3% of the total in 2030.
• The increase will be more pronounced in the Treasure Coast, where the elderly are projected to represent 28.4% of the total by 2030.
• In South Florida, the elderly are projected to reach over million (20.7% of the total) in 2030, up from 14.2% in 2010.
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Southeast Florida Projections by Age2000-2030
Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research (February, 2012).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 5-19 20-34 35-64 65 and up
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Southeast Florida Population 65+, 2000-2030
Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research (February, 2012).
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
s
South Florida Treasure Coast
Population 65 and over
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Growth - Uncertainties
Factors that could affect future growth:• Economic Recovery - The pace in the recovery of
employment growth will contribute to the pace of population growth.
• Affordability – The high cost of insurance and property taxes, combined with relatively low wages, could make less expensive regions of the State and elsewhere in the US more attractive than Southeast Florida, unless there are adjustments in the coming years.
• Hurricanes / Insurance – If the region is hit repeatedly by hurricanes in the coming years, the disruption, the cost of repairs and increasing insurance costs could discourage residents from staying in Southeast Florida or coming here from other parts of the US.
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Growth - Uncertainties
Factors that could affect future growth (continued):• Changes in immigration laws and enforcement – Some of
the legislative changes under consideration, if approved, along with more aggressive enforcement, could both affect the number of international in-migrants.
• External Events – As the earthquake in Haiti demonstrated, demographic flows into Southeast Florida are strongly affected by external events. Political and economic unrest in South and Central America and the Caribbean can generate unpredictable surges in international migration.
• Sea Level Rise – Although the most severe direct impacts of sea level rise appear to be beyond the 2030 timeframe that is the focus of this presentation, the need to prepare for its impacts starting now will have important consequences for the way the Region grows going forward.