sea level rise inundation risk
DESCRIPTION
Kiribati is a country in the front line of vulnerability. This presentation by Dr Robert Kay was given at the COP 15 meeting in Copenhagen, 9 December 2009.TRANSCRIPT
Structured risk assessment based on:
◦ Sea-level rise scenarios (permanent inundation) ◦ Storm surge and wave run-up (temporary inundation) ◦ Using all mapping data from Government ◦ 1 m spaced contours (processed to 0.1m spacing +/- 0.5m)
With infrastructure
Base Image
2030 Spring High Tide
IPCC A1FI
2050 Spring High Tide
IPCC A1FI
2070 Spring High Tide
IPCC A1FI
2100 Spring High Tide
IPCC A1FI
2100 1-in-10 year storm
IPCC A1FI
Risk Levels 2070
Source: CZM, 2009: KAP II
What the I-‐Kiribati Working Group said:
◦ Capacity building opportunity and integration of skills, knowledge and ideas
◦ Risk assessment outcome will assist in decision and policy making in Kiribati
2100 Low
IPCC B2
2100 High
IPCC A1FI
What if higher sea-‐level rise scenarios eventuate?
How can we help visualize impacts and assist decision making
Key outcomes: ◦ Building cadre of technical specialists ◦ Shown extreme sensitivity to sea-‐level rise ◦ Input into community adaptation decisions ◦ SigniDicant progress on assessing one part of the risk picture ◦ Shown data constraints & outlined next technical steps
What will be my future?