Seafood Systems

James L. Anderson

Director, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems

Professor, Food & Resource Economics

University of Florida

Food is the indispensable cornerstone of human well-being

Innovative Solutions for a Productive and Healthy World

Human Nutrition &

Food Security

Aquatic Food

Systems

Terrestrial

Food Systems

James L. Anderson, Food and Resource Economics: International trade, fisheries/aquaculture economics

Frank Asche, School of Forest Resources and Conservation: natural resource economics, price analysis, industrial structure, aquaculture

Karen Garrett, Plant Pathology: impact network analysis, plant disease ecology, ecological genomics

Core ISFS Faculty Team

Arie Havelaar, Animal Science & Emerging Pathogens Institute: risk assessment of infectious diseases and food safety

Gerrit Hoogenboom, Agriculture & Biological Engineering: crop simulation and decision support

Cheryl Palm, Agricultural & Biological Engineering: tropical land use degradation and rehabilitation

Pedro Sanchez, Soil & Water Sciences: food security and tropical soils

Systems Thinking

Why?

The Blue Ribbon Panel (2013) –Assembled by The World Bank

Naoko IshiiCEOGlobal EnvironmentFacility

David OburaFounding DirectorCORDIO, East Africa

Henry DemonePresident & CEOHigh Liner Foods

H.E. Neroni SladeSecretary GeneralPacific Islands Forum

Sylvia EarleFounderMission Blue

Thiraphong ChansiriPresidentThai Union Foods

Ove Hoegh-GuldbergDir. of Global Change InstituteUniversity of Queensland

Kim Ahn NguyenProfessor Nha Trang Univ.Vietnam

Blue Ribbon Panel

“…we must recognize that the well-being of communities, viability of economies, and sustainability of ecosystems are intricately linked.”

“…solutions must be multidimensional and integrate all aspects of the socio-ecological system.”

Pirates in the Indian Ocean are there due to failure of fisheries governance, hunger,

and corruption.

Food Insecurity results in civil unrest.

Admiral Howard Commander of the multinational task

force to conduct counter-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean

Conservation solutions don’t work if the behavior of the ‘apex predator‘ is not thoughtfully

incorporated…

And we are the Apex Predator.

The Global Food System

A dynamic and increasingly complex web of:

Technology - production, processing, communication, distribution

International trade, markets, policy

Public and private institutions

Diverse cultures and values

Environmental and bio-physical interactions

Minimalist systems:

Tragedy of reductionist thinking

Extensive Systems:

Paralysis of getting lost in the weeds

Bluefin Tuna for Pet Food – missed market opportunity, lost income, waste

Salmon Disease in Chile - lost market share, lost income, unemployment, environmental damage

US Catfish & Vietman Pangasius – many US farms out of business, lost market share

Ineffective command and control fisheries: numerous examples of waste, lost income, environmental damage

Numerous Infrastructure projects without ineffective fisheries management – depleted fisheries, abandon facilities, wasted funding

Killing sparrows during China’s Great Leap Forward – increased pests, crop failure, starvation

Tragedy of reductionist thinkingSystem Minimalist

The Triple Bottom Line

New Tools… Staying out of the weeds

Economic Sustainability

Ecological Sustainability

Community Sustainability

Economics

Ecology Community

Fishery Performance Indicators

Some Big Picture Trends that require

Systems Thinking

9 Billion by 2050

Source: NIC Report (2013); FAOSTAT; U.S. Census Bureau

60%

More Food Needed

(Traditional Agriculture Only)

Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World

agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision.

ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Rome, FAO.

Focusing on The 9 billion story–leads to production-oriented ‘solutions’

– plus we won’t stop at 9 billion

What kind of food?Who will have access?

Who gets to eat it?What about nutrition? Safety?

Obesity? Disease?Waste? Efficiency?

Global trade?How will it impact the environment? Climate change?

THE FOOD STORY IS VERY BIG EVEN IF POPULATION GROWTH STOPPED

Food Production Problem?

Source: FAOSTAT, WHO

Demand for Fish and Meat

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1970

1974

1978

198

2

198

6

199

0

199

4

199

8

200

2

200

6

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

2038

204

2

204

6

2050

200

5 U

SD

/Cap

ita

WEALTH Will it Continue to Grow?

China’s per capita consumption of seafood:

1981: 5.2 kg/capita/year 2011: 33.1 kg/capita/year

• Share: 7% in US• Share: 21 % in China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

mil

lion

ton

nes

Year

China United States

Source: FAO (2016a)

China, Wealth and Seafood

Seafood supply: China and US, 1961-2011

Fish & Shellfish for Direct Human Consumption

Source: FAO FishStat (2018)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

18019

50

1953

1956

1959

196

2

196

5

196

8

1971

1974

1977

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

2010

2013

2016

MM

T

Capture Aquaculture

2016Wild 48%Farmed 52%

Global Aquaculture Production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

50

1953

1956

1959

196

2

196

5

196

8

1971

1974

1977

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

2010

2013

2016

MM

T

Aquaculture Source: FishStatJ 2018: Note: Excluding aquatic

Global Animal Protein: 1980,2015(Excludes Eggs & Dairy)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 2015

Mill

. mt

Aquaculture

Seafood (w)

Mutton

Poultry

Pork

Beef

Aquaculture Share1980: 4%2015: 20%

Source: FAOSTAT, FishStatJ 2018

Fish to 20302030 (Model Projection)

1. Aquaculture will produce about 2/3of food fish

2. China will consume nearly 40% of seafood

3. Production of tilapia, shrimp more than will double

4. Aquaculture will more than double in India, Latin America, and Southeast Asia

5. Per Capita consumption of Fish in Sub-Sahara Africa will declineS. Msangi, IFPRI

M. Kobayashi, World Bank M. Batka, IFPRIS. Vannuccini, FAOM. Dey, Univ. of ArkansasJ. L. Anderson, Univ. of Florida

1) Source new supply from farmed imports (mostly from developing countries)

2) Source new supply from a growing US aquaculture industry

So far the US has chosen #1

TWO PATHS

Source: NMFS (2017) Fisheries of the US, 2016

The US Imports Approx. 90% of Its SeafoodThe Trade Deficit is approaching $15 billion

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1976

1978

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

2010

2012

Global Seafood Trade: Quantity 1976-2013(MMT)

36% of Seafood enters International Trade60% is from Developing Countries

Source: FishStatJ 2017

Environment Management/Pollution Standards

Disease Management – Antibiotic Use

Lack of Transparency

Food Security

Potential Labor Exploitation

Fraud – origin, species, adulteration

Quality Control

Political Uncertainty

Nonnative Species Introduction

Risks of Dependence on Imports from Developing Countries

Land-based FarmingMiami Herald 3-19-2018

Atlantic Sapphire9,000 MT 1st Phase

If we fail to have sustainable systems that supply food and income from

oceans, rivers, lakes and aquaculture….

…We will see more intensive land use and increasing risk of more deforestation and biodiversity loss

…More Malnutrition…Loss of Employment and Income

ThinkRIDGE to REEF

AndSEA to PLATE

Thank You

James.anderson@ufl.eduhttp://isfs.institute.ifas.ufl.edu

Photo: J.L. Anderson