Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane OutlooksSeasonal Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks

Dr. Gerald BellDr. Gerald Bell

Lead Seasonal Hurricane ForecasterLead Seasonal Hurricane ForecasterClimate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center

Joint Collaboration With National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Research Division

27 May 200827 May 2008

Archive of past outlooks and seasonal analyses Archive of past outlooks and seasonal analyseshttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/

Atlantic Hurricanes: Things to KnowAtlantic Hurricanes: Things to Know

1. The hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

2. Most hurricanes form during August, September, October.

3. We are in a high-activity era that began in 1995.

4. Scientists study climate patterns (weather patterns that last for months or longer) to make seasonal hurricane predictions.

5. Hurricane preparedness is very important for people in coastal and near-coastal regions, and should be done regardless of the seasonal hurricane forecast.

NOAA 2009 Atlantic Hurricane OutlookNOAA 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Near Near NormalNormal

50%50%

Below Below NormalNormal

25%25%

AboveAboveNormalNormal

25%25%

70% probability for each range

Named Named StormsStorms 9 - 149 - 14

HurricanesHurricanes 4 - 74 - 7

Major Major HurricanesHurricanes 1 - 31 - 3

An average season features 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

About NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane OutlooksAbout NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks

• What the Seasonal Hurricane Outlook is:A general guide to the expected overall strength of the upcoming

hurricane season.

• What the Seasonal Hurricane Outlook is NOT:It is not a prediction of how many hurricanes might affect the United States, or how many might affect any particular region.

How People Should Respond to the Seasonal Outlook:People that could be affected by a hurricane should prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.

When Atlantic Hurricanes FormWhen Atlantic Hurricanes Form

Most hurricanes form during August, September, and October

Comparing the Strength of Hurricane SeasonsComparing the Strength of Hurricane Seasons

We see more hurricanes in some decades than others.

We have been seeing more hurricane activity since 1995. This is called a high-activity era.

Hurricane Tracks Show Where Hurricanes Form and Move Hurricane Tracks Show Where Hurricanes Form and Move

High Activity Era Low Activity Era

Many more hurricanes form in the green box during an active hurricane season.

Scientists watch these storms carefully, because they can sometimes affect the United States.

More People Now Live Near the OceanMore People Now Live Near the Ocean

It is good to have a plan. Know what to do if a hurricane threatens.

High activity era

Lowactivity era

High-activity era

1900 1920 1950 1970 1994

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Hurricanes Can Sometimes Produce Heavy Rainfall in Many States, even in the Midwest.

Colors show heavy rain from a hurricane.

Inland flooding is now the leading cause of death from hurricanes

SummarySummary

1. Scientists study climate patterns (weather patterns that last for months or longer) to make seasonal hurricane predictions.

2. One of those climate patterns tends to last for decades (25-40 years).

3. We remain in an high-activity era that began in 1995.

4. We are not sure how long this increased activity will last, perhaps another decade or longer.

5. Hurricane preparedness is very important for people in coastal and near-coastal regions. This should be done regardless of the seasonal hurricane forecast.

6. Make a plan and be prepared. Do this before the season starts. It’s a very good thing to do.