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Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

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Page 1: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Seasonal Forecastsusing

Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Page 2: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years
Page 3: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years
Page 4: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Seasonal Forecastsusing

Objectively Chosen Analog Years

•The Technique

•2011-12 Verification

•Analogs for Upcoming Winter

•The Forecast

Page 5: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…

Page 6: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…• Look for past years that are similar to

this year …

Page 7: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…• Look for past years that are similar to

this year …• Use what subsequently happened in

those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Page 8: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Analog Seasonal Forecasting

• Look at this year so far…• Look for past years that are similar to

this year …• Use what subsequently happened in

those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

Page 9: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Climate IndicesPNA (Pacific North American Index)

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

Jones NAO

EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation)

TNH

ONI

NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index)

CAR (Caribbean Index)

MEI

BEST

Nino 3

Nino 1+2

Nino 3+4

Nino 4

Pacific Warm Pool

Tropical Pacific SST EOF

TNA

TSA

WHWP WP (West Pacific Index)

QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)

PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)

PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode)

NP (North Pacific Index)

NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone

Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular

momentum

Page 10: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years
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Not just the index…But sensible weather…IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

Page 14: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Not just the index…But sensible weather…IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

Page 15: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Automate the Process

• Compare each previous year to this year…

• Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number…

• Sort “Goodness of Fit”…• Print/Save results…• Do this for multiple indices…• Find “Consensus” analog years

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Last Year’s

Page 18: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

2011/12 Forecast Summary

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Temp:

Precip:

Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near

Forecast:

Page 19: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

2011/12 Forecast Summary

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Temp:

Precip:

Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near

Forecast:

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Temp:

Precip: Near Below Above Below Above Above

Observed:

Below Below Near Near Below Below

Page 20: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

2011/12 Forecast Summary

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Temp:

Precip:

Above Near Near Below Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Near

Forecast:

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Temp:

Precip: Near Below Above Below Above Above

Observed:

Below Below Near Near Below Below

P PP P

Page 21: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

2011/12 Verification

• 4 “Hits”• 6 One-category errors• 2 Two-category errors

Page 22: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

On to Next Winter…

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On to Next Winter…

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On to Next Winter…

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Indices

CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, and the QBO.

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Composites

December…

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Composites

January…

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Composites

February…

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Composites

March…

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April May

Page 52: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

April May

Page 53: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

April May

http://weather.jimlittle.net/2012 Winter Forecast Graphics

Page 54: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Portland/Willamette Valley

Month by Month…

Page 55: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years
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Median

Median

Page 64: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Median

Median“Near”

Page 65: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years
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Summary

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Temp:

Precip:

Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near

Page 72: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Cascades

Page 73: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Summary

Climate Division 4 – North Cascades

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Temp:

Precip:

Near Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Below Above Above Below

Page 74: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st

2009 21 21 20 19 19 19 19 26 26

2001 56 56 54 52 50 50 50 50 48

1996 53 65 64 67 67 68 71 52 50

1986 6 8 8 8 7 6 6 11 11

1968 54 55 46 46 52 60 65 70 74

1963 8 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 3

Government Camp SnowDecember

Snow Depth in Inches

Page 75: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st

2009 21 21 20 19 19 19 19 26 26

2001 56 56 54 52 50 50 50 50 48

1996 53 65 64 67 67 68 71 52 50

1986 6 8 8 8 7 6 6 11 11

1968 54 55 46 46 52 60 65 70 74

1963 8 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 3

Government Camp SnowDecember

Snow Depth in Inches

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23d 24th 25th 26th 27th 28th 29th 30th 31st

2009 21 21 20 19 19 19 19 26 26

2001 56 56 54 52 50 50 50 50 48

1996 53 65 64 67 67 68 71 52 50

1986 6 8 8 8 7 6 6 11 11

1968 54 55 46 46 52 60 65 70 74

1963 8 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 3

Government Camp SnowDecember

Snow Depth in Inches

4 of 6 Years Great! 2 of 6 Marginal

Page 77: Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

Questions?

Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Temp:

Precip:

Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near

[email protected]@odf.state.or.us

http://weather.jimlittle.net/2012 Winter Forecast Graphics


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