seb report: commodity prices to rise in 2011

8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011

1/20

February 1, 2010

Bjarne Schieldrop(Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson(Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47

SEB Commodities MonthlyAt the mercy of the weather gods

=

General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M In 2011 commodity prices are set to benefit from robust growth in

emerging markets and a continued recovery in OECD countriessupported by plentiful liquidity

We expect temporary set-backs as commodity volatilities are low,

speculative positions high and broad commodity indicesapproaching record highs

Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M We raise our 2011 average Brent price forecast to $90/b on

improved global growth prospects, higher crude oil demandexpectations and OPEC passivity

Brent crude prices likely to weaken in Q1 as winter bull driversfade but should recover in Q2 on continued solid global growth

Geopolitical risk is elevated as long as the Egypt unrest continues Nordic power price risk is skewed to the upside unless heavy

precipitation arrives

Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Expecting new highs but mainly consolidation at the current high

price level during 2011 Industrial metals are highly sensitive to Chinese tightening efforts,

which are likely to cause several temporary set-backs in thesector over the year

Physical industrial metal ETPs is a likely bullish force in 2011 Expect demand weakness during the Chinese New Year holiday

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Receding European sovereign debt fear, potential future OECD

interest rate hikes and physical ETP outflows weigh on gold Strong Asian demand partly compensates for weak OECD

demand at the moment The current gold market weakness is likely to offer attractive long

term buying opportunities as e.g. the OECD sovereign debt loadremains alarmingly high, inflation is rising on the agenda andcentral banks refrain from selling more of their reserves

Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Sensitivity to weather related disturbances remains high as low

inventory levels, protectionism and hoarding dominates theagricultural markets

The La Nia phenomenon is forecasted to last well into the spring Improving crop prospects and fading weather related risk premia

are likely to put agricultural prices under pressure in H2-11 asconditions normalize

Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.

THE NEXT COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE PUBLISHED ON MARCH 8

N

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)=

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

jan-10

feb-10

mar-10

apr-10

maj-10

jun-10

jul-10

aug-10

sep-10

okt-10

nov-10

dec-10

jan-11

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Energy

Agriculture

=Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Equities

Commodities

Energy

Industrial

metals

Precious

metals

Agriculture

YTD(%) MoM(%)

Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=

-42

-38

-34

-30

-26

-22

-18

-14

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

Power,Nordic

Silver

Gold

LeadZinc

Power,Cont.WTI

USNat.Gas

Steel

Copper

Aluminium

USGasoline

Soybeans

Palladium

Platinum

Coffe,Arabica

Corn

CO2(EUA)

Wheat

Brent

Sugar

USHeat.Oil

Nickel

CocoaTin

Cotton

=

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==


2/20

SEB Commodity Research

N

GENERAL=

t===~===OMNN==== I= = ~=K= q= = = = ~= == ~= = ~= = =

= ~K=q=lbà= = = == == ~~= = = =K= _==~== =K=_=rp=~=b~==~= ~= = = ~= = = == ~= ~= = ~= K=j~==~=~==~=~====~====~~==W=`= ~= = ~= = ~= ~== X= br= ~= = ~=X= ~== ~= =rp= =~=~=K=`~=~==~==

~=~=~I===~I=== ~= = =~= ~~====~====~==~==`~=~====K=l~I= = ~= = == = = = =~===J==== ~= ~= = = =lbà= K= eI= = J=~=====OMNNK==p= = = = k=r_p= _D== I= = `j`f= = = ~=

~= = ~= NMBK= f= = ~= =~~= = ~= = ~= ~====rp====pCm= RMM= = = = = == = = = =I==~= ~=~= ~=~= ~I= = ~= ~= ~=~= = = = g~~K= q= rpa= == = = = I== ~= QB= = = K= rpa=~= ~= ~=~= =~= ==~===b~==~=

= = ~= = = ~=~= = cu= = = =~I=~======OMNNK=q=sfu===~===OPB=~====k==~==~=NRKRB===g~~== = = = ~=I= = = = ~= g~~= =~====j=b~K==q=~===~=== = = ~= J= = =NTB=====k=====

g~~====~=~==i~=k~K=q=====NOB== === ~=~==

=~=~===~==~===k= e= ~= ~~= `== = = = = == ~~= =~= = = =

= ~= = = == ===~===OMMSJNM==~=~K= m= ~= = ~=~= = ~= === ====I=~~==~K=q= ~=~= =~==I==NOB===I=====~= = ~= =lbà==K=q==~== ~= = I= ~= PBK=p=`= ~= = ~==~== = = = ~= = =

= = = ~= ~= =====K==_==~=~==~======OMNMI===PQB=~=POB= K= q= ~= = ~== ~= = = = i~= k~== =JOMNMK= i~=k~= ~== ~= = ~~= == I= = = ====~=~K=f=~=~=~= = ~= = = ~K= `=

~= ~= ~= = =~=~=~~===OMNNI=~==~==~~===~=I== ~= = ~= ~~=K= q= = ~= = = = == = g~~= J= =~=~==~==~=rp=== K=eI====NO====~=~==~= ~= = = ~= = lbà== = = = = =K= t= = = =~=

======J==~~= = = J=~= K= q= = = = ~= =~===~=rp=~~=~==OMNMI=~=~==~==SB=~=~K=`= I= ==_= == = ONB= =OMNMK=t== = ==_===~===ANMML=~===~~=====K=c=OMNNI= = ~= ~= ~~= = = AVML== _= = ~= ~= == = = = ~= = =K= f~= ~= ~= = = =

==~= == ==~=~===K==


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O

ENERGY==

t=~= ~== OMNN= ~~=_==~==AURL==AVML====~= = I= = f~~=b=^=Efb^F=~=~==

= ~= = = ~= ~= = ~= == ~= ~= ~= ~= =lmb`==~===K=l===k~= ~= j~~~= ~= ~~= =~= ANMMLI= _= = ~= = == ~= = = = = = lmb == ~= = = = = ~=AVMLK= lmb = ~= = = ~=~= ATMJUMLK= t= = ~~====~===~=== = ~= = ~= == = = = ~= = ~K=

eI=lmb`=~=~=~=====~=====~==~== = = = ~= = ===~===K=t==_== = ~= = AVML= = nNJNN= ~=~~= = = =~= ~= = = = =K= f= ~I= = = ~~==`= = ~==== == = = ~= ~= ~= = = ==~====I== = = = = =~= = = = ~K=

p~= = = = == = ~= = = = ~= =~= = = = = ~=~I=~====~== ~K= kI= = = = =~= = _= = = = ~= ANMML===I====~====~==~=~==~= = = k= ^~= ~= =j=b~I=== ~=bK=t= = = = = = = =~= = nOJNN= = = = rp=

=~=~===~===~==K=t=~========~===== ~= = K= ^= ~= == = = ~= ~=== ~=I=KK= _= ~= tqfI= ~= ~= lmb`==~====~==== = = ~K= q= = ~====~=`=~== = = = ~========K=k=~=lmb`==~==== = ~= ~= = = =

p~=^~~==c~=OOK==

_= = ==k=~= = ==g~~I= _= = = NSBK= q= ~=~== = ~= ~~= ~= == = ~= = ~=

~= = ~= = rp= =I= = b~= = = =~=~=~=`==~=~~=== = ~K= f= = ~= ~=~=~=~=~======~~= = = = _= ~=tqf= = = lmb = = ATMJUML= ~K=q= = ~= = = =~= = `= = ~= ~== = = = = =~= = ~= = = === =~= ~====~=

OMMSJNM==~=~===~K=l==~=I=~==== = = = = K= ^= == = = g~~I= = = = =====~I=~===bI= = ~~= = = p= ~=~=====~=====~=~= ~= ~= = f~I= = =~= ANMML= ~~K= q= ~= =_=~=tqf=~==~=~== = = OMNM= = = = g~~= =~I= ~= = = = ~= ~~=

==`=El~~FI==== = tqfI= ~= ~~= ~= =b~= = = = = ^~=~K= f= ~I= ~= ~= ~~== = _I= = ~= =~~= ~= ~= = ~= =~=rp=K=`~===~=~= = = = kI= = = tqf= ~=_= = = ~=~=~~==I= = = = = = = = =tqf= = = ~= ~= ~I===~K==

Monthly global demand estimates= 2010

(mb/d)Revision

(kb/d)2011

(mb/d)Revision

(kb/d)IEA 87.70 +280 89.10 +360

EIA 86.60 +220 88.00 +240

OPEC 86.10 +160 87.30 +210

=d~= = ~= ~= = = =====~=====~=K=q=fb^====~=I==OMNM==~= UTKT=L= E= OUM= LF= ~= OMNN=~= UVKN=L= E= PSM= LFK= lmb`= = OMNM=

~= NSM= L= = ~= USKN= L= ~=OMNN= ONM= L= = ~= UTKP=L== =


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P

rp= b= f~= ^~= Ebf F== OMNM= ~= OOM=L= = ~=USKS=L=~=OMNN=OQM=L==~=UUKM=LK=q=fb^========~= = = = = ~=~=~==K=t=~=

~= = OKT= L= L= = OMNMI= ~= == = = = =~= =EUTKT= LFK= q= = ~= ~=~= = OMNN= = NKQ= LK= q~= = ===PMM=L==UUKN=L==a== == =~==lmb`==~= ORM= L= = OVKS= L= ~= =~~==~=~=====~===~= = K= Ì= lmb`==~=~~===QKV=LK==

^= = = fbÎ= lbà= ===UKP===OTQO===k=ERUKT=~=FK=q=~=~===K= m~= ~~= = a=~= ~= ~~= K= p= =~= ~= = = SQ== ~= = = =k= = RS= = ~= ~= K= d~I=lbà===~=~===== = ~= ~K= eI= ==~=~==~=~===~K=c==~=~~= ~I=rp= = = = =~= =a= == = =g~~I= = = = NVKN= = = ~=PQMKS=K=`~I==~==== ~= = = ~= ~K= l= = ~=I= ~= = ~= = TKS===NSRKT===~==== NVKV= = = OPMKN= K= rp= = ~=~= ~= = g~~= ~= =~===~K==q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW= _= = ====~=J=K=f====~=ANMMLI=~====

=OMMU=SNKUB=c=~=I===~========~=~= ~= ~~L~K= m= = =j~=OMNM==~==a=J==~=AVMKOM=~== ==~== = =~=~~=~=AUQ=~======J~===AUMLK==

k=m

==k= = = ~= ~= ~== = ~= = ~= =

~= = ~K= m= = =~= = a= = = ~~= =

~= ~= =~= ~=~= ~~= = ~= ~= ~~K=a= ~==aI= ~= == ~= = = = ~K= e==~=~=~~====~==~=~===K=

q===~===g~~=~==~=~=~=~==~== `~= ~=k= v~= ~K= p== = k= = ~= == ~= ~= = K=Ì= = = = ==~==~=K==q= = = = = a= = ~=bro= UNKSRLjt= EH= bro= OSKUTLjt= LFI== = = ~~= = = =~= ~= ~= = = NVVMK= p=

~= c~= = = = = ~=~~=bro=NMLjt=~===K= f= g~~= = ~= ~= ~=~= I= ~= ~= ~=~= p= ~= = ~= =~~K= q= g~~= = = = ~=bro=SVKSO=Ljt======p= ~= c~= I= = ~== = = = = = K= q=d~= = = ~= bro= RRKRRLjt= EH=bro= TKMOLjt=LF= =a=~= bro=RMKNPLjt==g~~K==q=~=~=~=~=~==a=== ~= = ~=== = ~= ~JK= nNJNN= = = PRB=LI==~=bro=UQKPMLjt==`~JNN== ONB= LI= = ~= bro= SOKMMLjtK=_= ~= ~= = ~= ~=K=f=g~~==~==~==~= = = ~= = ~= ~= == = = aK= m= ~=~= = = = ~= ~= ~===~~===~=== ~= K= t= = =

= ==nOJNN= ~= `~JNO== ==~=~==~=== K= c= = ~= ~= == = = ~= ~~== = ~K=nNJNN= = ~=bro= RMKRRLjt= ~= `~JNN= ~= bro=QSKPRLjt==g~~=PNK==


5/20


Q

CRUDE OIL=

Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120130

140

150

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

NYMEXWTI

ICE Brent

=

US crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

j f m a m j j a s o n d

2006-2010 avg.

2010

2011

=

OIL PRODUCTS=

Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

NYMEXGasoline

NYMEXHeating oil

=

Gasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Gasoline 2006-2010 avg.

Gasoline 2011

Distillate fuel oil 2006-2010 avg.

Distillate fuel oil 2011

=

POWER=

Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=


6/20


R

CO2 NATURAL GAS=

EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=

84

8586

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

Brent(ICE, $/b)=

85

8687

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

==

Heating oil(NYMEX, /gal)=

228

232

236

240

244

248

252256

260

264

268

272

276

280

284

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=

4,00

4,25

4,50

4,75

5,00

5,25

5,50

5,75

6,00

feb-11

jun-11

okt-11

feb-12

jun-12

okt-12

feb-13

jun-13

okt-13

feb-14

jun-14

okt-14

feb-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=


7/20


S

=INDUSTRIAL METALS==

t= = ~= ~= = = == = ~= = ~= ~= ~=~= = OMNN= ~= = = = = `== = ~= = lb`a= =

K= eI= = OMMV= ~= OMNM= =~==J====I==~== == =~=~= ~==K=t======~=~==~==~===~=~== = K= q= = = ~= =~~=~====~=~=~= =`~= = == == = = ~= = ~======I==dam===VKUB=L==nQ=~=~==QKSB=L= = aK= f~= = =

= = = ~I= = ~== == ~= = = OMB= =~= = = = = ~=~I= = ~= ~= K= `~I=~= ~~= ~= =~========~= = K= f= = = ~=~=~==~=====~=~I=~=~==~=~==~==~=~=~== = K= eI= = = = =~= ~K= ^= = ~= = = == ~= = ~= = ~=

~=~=bqcK=q==~==~=OMNM=~=~===~=~~=~===OMNNK=f===I==`=k=v~=~====~==c~=====~=~=~=~=K=q===~= = ~= = =^~~= == = ~= = = = =~===K=l===~=J=== ~= ~= = = ~= == ~= ~= = ~= =~==~==~====j~K=

=f~= ~= = = = = === =a=~=g~~K=m==~===b=~==rp===I====~= = = = = = K= b=^~~= = ~= ~= = = ========~=~=~== ~= ~= = ~= ~=~K= `~= = ~= = =`~= a~= ~= = ~=~~= = == = ~= ~= = ~= = ~=~~= =~==K=e~= ~= = ~= = ~= == = = = ~= ~= =

_= = = ~= K=^= ~= I====~=~=~===~=====OMNN=~==~=~=~===~===~=====

K=p====kI==~=== = = = = ~= ~== EHONKOBFI= = = = EHNRKSBFI== EHNPKRBFI= = EHNNKNBF= ~= ~=EHNMKRBFK= `I= ~= =I=~==VKQBK==

LME prices and inventories m/m

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Aluminium

Copper

Nickel

Zinc

Lead Ti

n

Steel

Price (%) Inventories (%)

=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

^

==^===rpa=OPMMJORNML==

a=~=g~~I====VKQB== ~= rpa= OQSSLK= e~= ~= =a= ~= ~= ==~= I=~= = = ~= = ~== = = g~~K= `~= ~~=~= ~= ~= = g~~=E= ~= PKUBFK= j= = = = = ijb=~== =~=~~==~====Jijb==ijb== ~= ~= ~= = ~= =K=^~~==~=~==~= ~= = I= =

=I=~==== ~= ~K= q~I= `= ~~== ~= ~= = = K=o= ~= = = = = =~= K= `= = ~====~=~=~==== = = ~= ~= ~=K= d~I= = = = =~= = = ~=~= = ~= == ~= = = = = ~== = = AOMMML= = = =~~= = K=t= = ~== ~=

=`==~=~==~=== ~= = = = = =~I= = = = = = rpa=


8/20


T

PMMML= ~= AOMMML= = = = = = ~K=q~=~~=ENNMNOUFW=^=~== = = = = = ~= ~~= = ~=~= ~= = K= eI= = g~~==~=~== ~====~==OMMU= SNKUB= c= ~L~= = ~=

AORTULK=pJ======~~===~===~==~K=q==~=J==K=m===a=J===AOPTTL====~=~~=~=AOOQVLK==

`

==`= = = rpa= URVPJVTOUL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =NPKRB= = ~= rpa= VRQVLK= q= = == = = = = ~=

= = a= ~= == = = = g~~K= `~=~~= I= ~= ~= =EQKUBFK=f=OMNN===~=~=== ~I= = ~=rpa= NMMMML= ~== == ~K=k= ~== === ~= OMNP= = = ~= ~======K=^==~== = = I= = =~= ~= ~= = ~= = == = = = = = ~~= ~== = ~= = = K=t~= = = `= k= v~=~= = = = =K= q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW=p==~===g~~==~== = = RJ~= =~= ~==~====I==~=~~=~= K= ^= ~= = = ~= ~=AVRTVL===~=====~K==

k

==k= = = rpa= OPRMSJOSSMML= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =

NRKSB== ~=rpa= OSSMMLK= q==== = = ijb= = = == = ~= ~= ~= = g~~K= `~=~~=~= = =QKPBK=d~I= ==~==~===~== = = ~K= q= ~= =~~= = ~~K= m= = =~==rpa=ORMMML====^~~==~= == ~= ~= == ==EkmfF==K=m==`=~= = = = ====kmf===~=

~= = = = ~I= = ===~~==K=q===

== = =~==~~=====kK=q~=~~=ENNMNOUFW= k= = =~== = ~=~~= E= ~= AOOSVQLFK= ^= = = =g~~=====~===K=q==== ==OMNM=

~= = =AOTRVRLI= == = OMMTJMU=RMB=~===APMPORL==== ~K=m= ~= = = ~= ~~=~=======~K==

w

==w= = = rpa= ONRUJOQTNL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =NNKNB= = ~= rpa= OPQOLK= q= = ~========= ijb= = = ~~= ~=

~= = aK= `~= ~~= == = = g~~= ~= MKQBK=w= ~== ~= = = = ~= =OMNN= = = = OMNO= ~= ~=====OMNPK=q==~=~== ~= = ~= = = ^~~== = = = = ~=======~==K=c=I======= = = ==rpa= OMMMLK= q== = = = = =~= = == = = kK= q~= ~~=ENNMNOUFW=w===~==~=~~===K=q=OMMVLNM=~=~==~=~====I====~===~==~=~===~======~=~==l= ~= = AOSPVLK= f= I= = OMMSJMU= RMB=~= = = AOUMVL= = = =~K=eI===~==J=c== ~= APOOPJPOOTLI= = = ~= =~= ~= ~= APTRPL= K= m= =ANMNV===~K==

p

==ijb=====rpa=RNPJRVOL==a==g~~I====RKQB== ~= rpa= RSRLK= q= = ~= =====`==~===`= === =OMNMK=q= ijb= = ~= = ~= ~= == = l= OMNM= ~= = =~I=====~=K=`==~= ~= ~= = = = =k= = = ~= ~== = `= = = ~=

~= = = ~= ~= =~=K=p=I==~==ijb==~===K=f=


9/20


U

=====~==~==f~===~===== = = ^~~= = = ~=~= ~= = ~= = ~= =~~K=^==~= ==I==~====lb`a==

= ~= ==k=^~=eo`== ~=QQB= =k=NK=t=~== = ~= = ijb= ~= ~=`= = K= p= = == = = = K= f= = ~== = = = ^~~= = ~==~~K=f~====~====~====~==== K= c~I= = =lb`a===~====== =ijb=K= ijb= = ~= ====g~~=T=~=====

= = ~= = = I= =~I= k= ^~= eo`K= q= `=k= v~= ~= = ~= ijb= =~= = = = K= t= ~====ijb==~====~K=


10/20


V

ALUMINIUM=

Aluminium price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Aluminium inventories(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SHFE

COMEX

LME

==

COPPER=

Copper price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Copper inventories(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SHFE

COMEX

LME

=

NICKEL=

Nickel price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

3500040000

45000

50000

55000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Nickel inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=


11/20


NM

ZINC=

Zinc price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Zinc inventories(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1100000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SHFE

LME

=

LEAD=Lead price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Lead inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

250000

275000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

TIN=

Tin price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

30000

33000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Tin inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=


12/20


NN

STEEL=

Steel price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

maj-10

jul-10

sep-10

nov-10

jan-11

=

Steel inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

jul-08

sep-08

nov-08

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

maj-10

jul-10

sep-10

nov-10

jan-11

=

FUTURES CURVES=Aluminium(LME, $/t)=

2250

2275

2300

23252350

2375

2400

2425

2450

2475

2500

2525

2550

2575

2600

2625

2650

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

feb-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

Copper(LME, $/t)=

6900

7100

7300

7500

7700

7900

8100

8300

8500

8700

8900

9100

9300

9500

9700

9900

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

feb-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

==

Nickel(LME, $/t)=

21000

21500

22000

22500

23000

23500

2400024500

25000

25500

26000

26500

27000

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

feb-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

Zinc(LME, $/t)=

20752100212521502175220022252250227523002325

23502375240024252450247525002525

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

feb-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~


13/20


NO

=PRECIOUS METALS==

q= = ~= = = ~= = = ~=K= t= = = ~=~==~=~=~==~====~==~=~===

=~==~==b~=== I= ~= = ~= = bqc== K= t~= ~= = =`=k=v~= ~==lbà= =~=~==~~==~=K= q= = ~= == ~= ~~= ~= = =^~= ~= ~= lbà= ~= ~I== ===== == = = KK= = b~== I= `= ~I= ~=~= = ~= ~= lbà= ~I=

~~===~= K=f=`=~====I=====~=~I=~=~======~=~====I= = ~= = = = ~===~==~=~=K==f=a= ~= g~~= = = ~==~= = ~= = = ~~I= =~= ~= = I= ~= b~== = ~= ~= ~K= q=`ljbu====PKSB==ANPPRLK=l== ~= = = ~= = = PKVBK=m~=bqc==~=~==~= = = = = K= `== ~I= = = = ~= ~= =~= = ~= = = lbàK=^=~===QKSB=L==a== RKNB= = kI= = = = = ==~~K=j=~===OMB== ~= = = = ~= ~I== ~= ~= = = ~===~=~==~=~=K= ^= = = = g~~I= = = ~== = = = = ~= rp=

nQ=dam=~==b~==~~K==^====mffdp==~=~===~=b~=~==~====b~=c~~=p~=c~=EbcpcF= = ~~= ~= = =~= =~K=f= ~I== =b= = ~= = = g~~I==~==~==~=b=K= ^= I= g~~= = OMB= = =bro= R= K= eI= = = = ~=~= = ~= ~= == =

==~~K=m~=~==== = ~= = ~= ~K= fI==~====mffdp===

~==~==~==~===~K= f= ~I= ~= ~= = == = = bcpc= = = ~====~==~I=~==

d~=~==K===m~==bqc==~=~==~=~~= RP= = = OMPU= = = ===kK=q~===~=~=~==~=~=~==K=l==~== = = ~= = =`ljbu= = = = ~= == = ~= ~==~=~=~=~=K==p= = == = ~= == g~~I= ~= ~= ~= ~= =

aK= eI= = `ljbu= = == = MKUB= =AOTKVRL= ~=~= = ~=g~~= K= ^= ~= bqc==~=~=~I==NTS= ==NQSMQ=I=rp===~==~========g~~K=p= `= = ~= ~= =K=p===~=~=== = = ~= ~= bqc= =~===~==K===q~=~~I==ENNMNOUFW=t=~=RJJ

RJJR==~==~=~==~=~= ~= = ~K= ^= = = =ANPORL==~=======OS= EJ~F= ~~= = g= OMMVK= ^= == = = ~= ~= = ~== ~=~= = = = = = OMMUJOMNN= =~I= ~= = = = ~= ~= ~~I= ~=~= = = ANOSPJNPMRL=~~K= m= ~==J~===~=ANPSMJNPSR=~=== = = ~= = = = =K==

Gold and selected currencies vs. USD

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

YTD (%) MoM(%)

=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==


14/20


NP

GOLD=

Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

12001300

1400

1500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Gold to silver ratio(front month, weekly closing)=

44

48

52

56

60

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=

Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

300

550

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300

Palladium(left axis)

Platinum(right axis)

==

FUTURES CURVES=

Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=

1325

1350

1375

1400

1425

1450

1475

1500

1525

1550

1575

1600

1625

1650

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

feb-15

maj-15

aug-15

nov-15

feb-16

maj-16

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)

27,0

27,5

28,0

28,5

29,0

29,5

30,0

30,5

31,0

31,5

32,0

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

mar-15

jun-15

sep-15

dec-15

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=


15/20


NQ

AGRICULTURE=

q= ~~= = ~= == = ~~= ~= ~=~= = i~= k~= ~=~= ~= = = = =

= = = k= e= K=a= = = = = = ~=~~= I= ~= == = = = ~=~K=t= ~= ~~= ~J~======~===~== nNJNN= ~=~= = =nOJNNI= = = = = = =~K= q= = ~~= ~====~==OMNN==~~==~=~= ~= ~= = ~== = = = =

= ~K= t= = == = = ~= ~= = = ~=~=====~==~=~~=K===q=~~= =~===a= ~= g~~= = = r_p=_= `j`f= = = = ~= =NTKPBK= Ì= ~= ~= ~= ~= == = ~= = = =EHOUKQBF= = = = EHOOKNBF= =~=~==EHNPKNBFK=^==== = ~= = = = = I=~====i~=k~J~=~= ~= ~= ~= =~=k=^~====~= ~= = = ~= == = = ~~= K= p=~= = = = == = = ~= =~===~=~~=~=~~=~==~===K==

`

==`===RRRJSRVL==a=~=g~~I====OOKNB==~=SQQLK= ^= = = `cqÌ= ~== = = = = ~= = == K= g~~= t= ^~=p=~=a~=b~=Et^pabF=== rp= a~= = ^= Erpa^F=====QKTM=== ~=UNSKMN= K= a= = ~= = ~== = = = = PKMM= = = NOTKMM=K= ^= ^~= = = == ~= = = = =

= ~K= k= ~= = rp=b~= m= ^= ~=

~=~= NRB= ~=== = =~===OMMN=~=OMMSI=~=~=bNR== = ~= = SMB= = = rp= ~= K=q~=~~= ENNMNOUFW=^=RJJP=~==

=K=l=I=~=~== EPJ~= = ~F= = ~~====~JR==~==~=~==OMMU=TSRL=K==

t~

==t~= = = TQMJURSL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =OUKQB= = ~= UPRLK= ^= = =`cq I= ~= = = = ~== ~= ~= = = = =

= OMMVK= f= = g~~= t^pabI= =~==~==MKSV===~=SQRKUO=K= v~= = = = == NKOT= = = NTTKVV= = = = ==~=~==~J==~=~K= e= ~= ~= ~= =~==~~=~=~====~= ~~= == ==~=~====i~=k~=~=~=~== = ~= = ~K=q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW= q= OMMULMV= RMB=~= = = ~= ~~= ~= ~=

~=~~==~==OMMU=_J~===VRPL=~==~=J=VUTJVVUL=c===~=~K=l=====~=~~I==~=SSMI====~==~K==

p~

==p~= = = \NOUOJNQOOL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =NPKNB= = ~= NPVULK= ^= = =`cqÌ= ~= = = = ~== ~= = = = K= f= =g~~= t^pabI= = ~= =~==OKOR===~=ORRKRP=K=a==~=I=~===== = NKUQ== = RUKOU=K=a= = =^~=~=~= ~= === ~= = = ~= _~~= ~=~= I= ~=~= = ==~K= q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW= q== = ~= = ~= = =K=m==~==_J~==~=NQVML= = ~= = ~= = OMMU===NSSPLK=


16/20

NR

=

CORN=

Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Corn year end inventories(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

mt

days of supply

==

WHEAT=

Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Wheat year end inventories(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

mt

days of supply

=

SOYBEANS=

Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Soybean year end inventories(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

20

40

60

80

100

120

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

mt

days of supply

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa =


17/20

NS

=

SUGAR COFFEE=

Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

=

Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

=FUTURES CURVES=

Corn(CBOT, /bu)=

470480490

500510520530540550560570580590600610620630640650660670

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

==

Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=

1100

11201140

1160

1180

120012201240

12601280

1300

13201340

1360

1380

14001420

1440

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

=

Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=

161718192021222324

2526272829303132333435

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

10-11-30

10-12-31

11-01-28

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa =


18/20

NT

=

COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next

Industrial production (%, YoY) 7,7 2010-11-30 7,1 2010-10-31 2011-02-14

Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,3 2010-11-30 0,8 2010-10-31 2011-02-14

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 80,0 2011-03-31 78,1 2010-12-31

Manufacturing PMI 56,9 2011-01-31 57,1 2010-12-31 2011-02-01Real GDP (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-09-30 2,0 2010-06-30 2011-02-15

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,3 2010-09-30 1,0 2010-06-30 2011-02-15

CPI (%, YoY) 2,2 2010-12-31 1,9 2010-11-30 2011-02-28

CPI (%, MoM) 0,6 2010-12-31 0,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-28

Consumer confidence -11,2 2011-01-31 -11,0 2010-12-31 2011-02-17

USA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,9 2010-12-31 5,6 2010-11-30

Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,8 2010-12-31 0,3 2010-11-30 2011-02-16

Capacity utilization (%) 76,0 2010-12-31 75,4 2010-11-30 2011-02-16

Manufacturing PMI 58,5 2010-12-31 58,2 2010-11-30 2011-02-01

Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,8 2010-12-31 3,2 2010-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 3,2 2010-12-31 2,6 2010-09-30 2011-02-25

CPI (%, MoM) 1,5 2010-12-31 1,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-17

CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,5 2010-12-31 0,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-17

OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,7 2010-11-30 102,2 2010-10-31

Consumer confidence (Michigan) 74,2 2011-01-31 74,5 2010-12-31 2011-02-11

Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 103 2010-12-31 71 2010-11-30 2011-02-04

JAPAN

Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,6 2010-12-31 5,8 2010-11-30 2011-01-31

Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 3,1 2010-12-31 1,0 2010-11-30 2011-01-31

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 86,7 2010-11-30 85,3 2010-10-31


Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 5,3 2010-09-30 3,5 2010-06-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,1 2010-09-30 0,7 2010-06-30 2011-02-14

CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-01-31 -0,1 2010-12-31 2011-02-25

CPI (%, MoM) -0,3 2010-12-31 -0,3 2010-11-30


Consumer confidence 40,2 2010-12-31 40,6 2010-11-30 2011-02-09

CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,5 2010-12-31 13,3 2010-11-30 2011-03-11


Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,8 2010-12-31 9,6 2010-09-30 2011-04-20

CPI (%, YoY) 4,6 2010-12-31 5,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-15


Consumer confidence 102,9 2010-11-30 103,8 2010-10-31

Bank lending (%, YoY) 19,9 2010-12-31 19,8 2010-11-30

Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30

OTHER

OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-11-30 102,6 2010-10-31

Global manufacturing PMI 55,0 2010-12-31 53,9 2010-11-30Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=


19/20

NU

=PERFORMANCE==

Closing YTD(%)

1 m(%)

1 q(%)

1 y(%)

5 y(%)

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1387,93 1,9 1,9 11,8 28,5 46,5UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1306,04 1,9 1,9 11,8 28,4 31,3UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1652,50 2,0 2,0 12,1 32,6 75,4UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1487,61 3,2 3,2 14,5 20,7 22,1

UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1291,72 0,2 0,2 10,0 26,7 64,0UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2026,51 -6,3 -6,3 0,6 29,1 139,6UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 2027,05 3,1 3,1 12,0 50,5 125,8Baltic Dry Index 1137,00 -36,7 -36,7 -57,5 -61,6 -45,0

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 89,34 -2,2 -2,2 9,7 21,3 30,7Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 99,42 4,9 4,9 19,6 37,8 49,3Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2472,00 0,1 0,1 5,5 17,3 -1,5Copper (LME, $/t) 9530,00 -0,7 -0,7 16,2 38,2 96,9Nickel (LME, $/t) 26620,00 7,6 7,6 15,8 45,1 73,7Zinc (LME, $/t) 2354,00 -4,1 -4,1 -2,8 9,1 2,4Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 560,00 -1,8 -1,8 11,9 33,3 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1340,70 -5,7 -5,7 -1,2 23,7 137,0Corn (CBOT, /bu) 644,00 2,4 2,4 10,7 78,0 195,8

Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 825,75 4,0 4,0 15,1 69,6 139,2Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 1398,00 0,3 0,3 14,0 50,0 133,5

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==

Date Source

Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov

American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org

CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov

US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov

International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report February 10 www.oilmarketreport.com

OPEC, Oil Market Report February 10 www.opec.org

Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook February 8 www.eia.doe.gov

US Department of Agriculture, WASDE February 9 www.usda.gov

International Grains Council, Grain Market Report February 24 www.igc.org.uk

OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 2 www.opec.org

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

CONTACT LIST==

COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Terje Anderson Global Head ofCommodities

[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76

RESEARCH

Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30

Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84

CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82

Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10

Katarina Johnsson Head of Corp. Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02

Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27

INST. SALESArne Boberg Head of Inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67

Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76

Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95

Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64

TRADING

Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78

Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39=

TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Anders Sderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Mller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9


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seb report: commodity prices to rise in 2011

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