seb report: new fx scorecard sees swedish currency strengthening

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  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

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    Rkx aio imqk dboc kxw whqhiwaj nishwbimq is kxw uhgqbsh6 uuu/ng/qhg/qh/ Sjbq whpkws bq pwkcxahc gr Qliocboitbqli Hoqlbmci Giolho IG *pxgm" dkw boqsbsxsbkoim bothqskwq komr/ Bodkwnisbko ioc

    kpbobkoq akosibohc ubsjbo sjbq ckaxnhos iwh ebtho bo ekkc dibsj ioc iwh giqhc ko q kxwahq ghmbhthc sk gh whmbigmh- uh ck oks whpwhqhos sjis sjhr iwh iaaxwish kw aknpmhsh/ Ok mbigbmbsr bq

    iaahpshc dkw ior cbwhas kw a koqhyxhosbim mkqq whqxmsboe dwkn whmbioah ko sjbq ckaxnhos/ Ajioehq nir gh nich sk kpbobkoq kw bodkwnisbko akosibohc jhwhbo ubsjkxs oksbah/

    Boswkcxaboe kxw ohu QHG DZ QakwhaiwcUHCOHQCIR

    71 NIR 7097

    HCBSKWAiwm Jinnhw, 34 : 804 719 7:

    Uh iwh pmhiqhc sk pwhqhos sjh dbwqs hcbsbko kd kxw whchqbeohc Axwwhoar Qswisherinhocboe iochzpiocboehiaj bocbtbcxim axwwhoarq tiwbkxq wisboe aishekwbhq/ Dxwsjhw- uh qxnniwbvh kxwhzshochc ioimrsbaim axwwhoar dwinhukwl bo kxw DZ Qakwhaiwc *pieh 7" ubsj hiaj wisboe ewkxpuhbejshc iaakwcboe sk kxw iqqhqqnhos kd ujis sjh DZ niwlhs ubmm wheiwc iq sjh nkqsbnpkwsios ehohwim sjhnh ioc ajiwiashwbqsba/ Sjh ohu wisboe aishekwbhq iwh Timxisbko-Pkqbsbkoboe- Mbyxbcbsr- Hthos Wbql ioc Emkgim Aramh/ Pwh.hzbqsboe aishekwbhq boamxch Hakoknba

    Dxocinhosimq- Nkohsiwr pkmbar- Aipbsim Dmkuq ioc Shajobaimq/ Bo iccbsbko- pwhtbkxq wbejs qbchpiehq jith ghho nkcbdbhc sk boakwpkwish akwwhqpkocboe shzs ioc ajiwsq dkw hiaj ohu wiolboeaishekwr/ Hnhweboe niwlhs axwwhoabhq iwh boamxchc gxs jith oks rhs ghho akothwshc bosk sjhohu Qakwhaiwc/ Iq imuirq uh uhmaknh imm aknnhosq ko sjh ajioehq nich dwkn kxw whichwq/

    Wheiwcboe sjh axwwhos DZ niwlhs kxsmkkl- bs bq icnbsshcmr thwr xoahwsibo/ Hxwkph diahq ipkshosbim gwhil.xp kd sjh aknnko axwwhoar xobko xomhqq sjh HNX wipbcmr bnpmhnhosq hthonkwh qbeobdbaios- akoahwshc- ioc diw.whiajboe hakoknba ioc pkmbsbaim nhiqxwhq sk whasbdr sjhqbsxisbko boamxcboe bqqxboe Hxwkgkocq ioc nilboe pwhpiwisbkoq dkw dbqaim xobko/ Niwlhsxoahwsibosr fxqsbdbhq i chdhoqbth qswisher bo sjh aknboe nkosj/ Bd iq uh iosbabpish Ewhhahhmhasq i pwk.hxwk ekthwonhos ioc Qpibo whahbthq bsq giol whaipbsimbvisbko pialieh sjho kxwnibo qahoiwbk iqqxnhq dboioabim niwlhs qsigbmbvisbko skuiwcq sjh hoc kd Y7 ioc i whsxwo sk

    aixsbkxq ippwhabisbko gr qkxoc phwbpjhwim E90 axwwhoabhq/ Wheiwcmhqq kd wbql ipphsbsh uhhzphas HXW+XQC sk qmkumr ewboc mkuhw iq whqhwth nioiehwq jith ok imshwoisbth is pwhqhos gxssk gxr sjh ckmmiw/ Jkuhthw- sjbq bq oks sjh sbnh sk hzphas sjh XQC sk whsxwo sk bsqdxocinhosimmr fxqsbdbhc timxisbko iq bs qakwhq mkumr bo imm kxw swicbsbkoim wisboe aishekwbhq *b/h/Dxocinhosimq- Nkohsiwr Pkmbar ioc Dmkuq"/ Dboimmr- uh hzphas sjh QHL sk ippwhabish bo J77097- gxs uh jith imqk wibqhc kxw HXW+QHL dkwhaiqsq dkw sjh qinh phwbkc/

    GXR XQC TQ EGP $ FPR Uh dkwhaiqs FPR sk jith dboimmrskpphc kxs bo swich.uhbejshc shwnq/ Imsjkxej uh hzphaskomr i ewicxim wbqh bo XQC+FPR sjh wbql whuiwc bqipphimboe/

    EGP jiq ippwhabishc mishmr jkuhthw timxisbko bq oks iqisswiasbth iq bs nir ipphiw ioc sjh XL hakoknr bq qsbmm uhil/

    GXR QAIOCBHQ TQ HXW- EGP $ FPR Kthw sjh piqs dhuuhhlq qaiocbhq jith uhilhohc sk mhthmq isswiasbth dkw mkoe.shwn pkqbsbth pkqbsbkoq ieibo/ Nhioujbmh EGP bq swicboeigkth kxw qjkws. ioc mkoe.shwn dibw timxh nkchmq ioc uhwhnibo aixsbkxq ko sjh hxwk kxsmkkl/ FPR timxisbko bq thwrqswhsajhc- bo piwsbaxmiw tq/ Qaiocbhq/

    QHMM AIC+OKL Bo sjh pwhtbkxq Axwwhoar QswisherdwknFioxiwr- uh ictkaishc qhmmboe OVC+OKL iq i whmisbth swich

    ko aknnkcbsr axwwhoabhq/ AIC jiq oku whahbthc i whmisbthmrmku ewich ko pwbniwbmr i wbaj timxisbko/

    QHG DZ Qakwh aiwcSksim uhbejshc qakwh- 4 nsj kxsmkkl

    .9-8 .9 .0-8 0 0-8 9 9-8

    FPR

    AJD

    EGP

    HXW

    OVC

    AIC

    XQC

    OKL

    IXC

    QHL

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Dkwhaiqsq ioc DZ Qakwhaiwc

    DZ dkwhaiqsq77.nif Y1 97 Y3 97 Y1 97 Y3 97 Dkwhaiqsq 7

    HXW+XQC 9-7524 9-74 9-78 9-72 9-10 QHG DZ Qakwhaiwc 7

    HXW+FPR 909-42 901 908 908 904 Sjh gbe pbasxwh 3HXW+EGP 0-:0:7 0-:7 0-:9 0-:9 0-:9 XQC :

    HXW+AJD 9-7097 9-70 9-79 9-79 9-77 HXW 90

    HXW+QHL 2-0288 :-:8 :-50 :-20 :-:7 FPR 97

    HXW+OKL 5-8281 5-40 5-38 5-88 5-80 EGP 93

    HXW+CLL 5-3179 5-31 5-31 5-33 5-38 AIC 94

    HXW+WXG 12-:0 1:-2 1:-0 1:-3 12-3 IXC 9:

    HXW+PMO 3-1903 3-70 3-90 3-70 3-98 OVC 70

    HXW+JXD 724-72 728 720 775 774 AJD 77

    Awkqq wishq QHL 73

    XQC+FPR 52-35 :7 :3 :7 :7 OKL 74

    OKL+QHL 9-9258 9-94 9-95 9-9: 9-9: CLL 7:

    EGP+XQC 9-8:1 9-81 9-83 9-82 9-81 WXG 10

    XQC+AIC 9-0947 9-01 9-07 0-22 0-2: PMO 17

    XQC+AJD 0-21:5 0-28 0-25 0-23 0-2: JXD 13

    IXC+XQC 0-2271 9-00 9-01 9-01 9-03 AOR 14

    OVC+XQC 0-5440 0-58 0-58 0-:9 0-:7 Exbch sk bocbaiskwq 1:

    XQC+QHL 5-90:9 5-07 4-24 4-20 4-5: Qhiqkoim pisshwoq 12

    XQC+OKL 8-2185 4-01 8-24 8-:8 8-55 Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq 30

    XQC+WXG 19-90 10-2 10-3 72-2 72-: Akosiasq 39

    XQC+AOR 4-1799 4-7: 4-70 4-71 4-9:& Gmkknghwe qxwthr DZ dkwhaiqsq/

    AkoshosqQHG Akoqhoqxq&

    QHG DZ Qakwhaiwc- E90Uhbejsq XQC HXW FPR EGP AIC IXC OVC AJD QHL OKLDxocinhosimq 98-0( .9 0 .9 .9 ,9 ,7 ,7 ,9 ,7 ,1

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar 70-0( .9 .9 .7 .9 ,9 ,9 0 .7 0 0

    Dmkuq 98-0( .7 ,9 0 .9 ,9 ,9 .9 ,9 ,1 ,9

    Timxisbko 98-0( ,7 ,9 .3 ,9 .7 .9 .9 .8 ,7 .9

    Pkqbsbkoboe 7-8( .8 ,8 0 .8 .8 ,8 ,8 ,8 .9 .9

    Shajobaimq 5-8( ,3 .8 ,7 ,7 .3 .3 .8 .9 .1 .1

    Mbyxbcbsr 5-8( ,1 ,7 ,1 ,9 .9 .7 .1 0 .1 .1

    Hthos wbql 90-0( 0 .3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    Emkgim aramh 5-8( .7 0 .7 0 ,7 ,7 ,9 0 ,9 ,9

    Sksim uhbejshc qakwh .0-0 .0-1 .0-: .0-3 .0-1 ,0-1 .0-1 .0-4 ,0-4 ,0-9

    DZ Qakwhaiwc . Akoswbgxsbkoq sk sksim qakwh

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    OKL Uhbejshc qakwh6 0-9

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbqlMbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    QHL Uhbejshc qakwh6 0-4

    7

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    XQC Uhbejshc qakwh6 0

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    DmkuqNkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    FPR Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-:

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    AIC Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-1

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    IXC Uhbejshc qakwh6 0-1

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    HXW Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-1

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    DmkuqNkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    EGP Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-3

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    AJD Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-4

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    OVC Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-1

    1

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    I Ohu Axwwhoar Qswisher boswkcxaboe sjh QHG DZ Qakwhaiwc

    Uh iwh pmhiqhc sk pwhqhos sjh dbwqs hcbsbko kd kxwwhchqbeohc Axwwhoar Qswisherinhocboe ioc hzpiocboe

    hiaj bocbtbcxim axwwhoarq tiwbkxq wisboe aishekwbhq/Dxwsjhw- uh qxnniwbqh kxw hzshochc ioimrsbaim axwwhoardwinhukwl bo kxw DZ Qakwhaiwc *pieh 8" ubsj hiaj wisboeewkxp uhbejshc iaakwcboe sk kxw iqqhqqnhos kd ujis sjhDZ niwlhs ubmm wheiwc iq sjh nkqs bnpkwsios sjhnh iocajiwiashwbqsba/ Uh ghmbhth xomkalboe sjbq DZ niwlhs ghsi*b/h/ bchosbdrboe sjh aknnko axwwhoar cwbthw" bq xqximmrsjh nkqs whuiwcboe pwkahqq bo ehohwisboe impji/ Bsqkgfhas bq sjhwhdkwh sk hoqxwh i nkwh croinba pwkahqq-hoigmboe sjh ohu qrqshn sk ghsshw aipsxwh qjkws.shwn DZniwlhs chthmkpnhosq iq uhmm iq pwh.hzbqshos nhcbxn. skmkoe.shwn wisboe aishekwbhq/ Dkw sjbq pxwpkqh uh jithicchc Timxisbko- Pkqbsbkoboe- Mbyxbcbsr- Hthos Wbql iocEmkgim Aramh aishekwbhq sk sjkqh imwhicr hqsigmbqjhc- b/h/Hakoknba Dxocinhosimq- Nkohsiwr pkmbar- Aipbsim Dmkuqioc Shajobaimq/ Sjh DZ Qakwhaiwc ubmm gh xqhc kthw sukcbddhwhos sbnhqaimhq/ Sjh ohu ioc phwjipq nkwh wipbcmrajioeboe wisboe aishekwbhq ubmm gh iuiwchc i jbejhwuhbejs bo i qjkws.shwn Qakwhaiwc/ Kthw i phwbkc kd 1.4nkosjq *sjh chdixms phwbkc xqhc gr Axwwhoar Qswishergksj ehohwimmr ioc hmqhujhwh bo sjbq whpkws" uhbejsq ubmmcbddhw iq cbqaxqqhc ghmku ko pieh 3/

    GBE PBASXWH KXSMKKL I CHDHOQBTH PHWBKC

    IJHIC GXS DKW JKU MKOE; Bo kxw miqs Axwwhoar

    Qswisherpxgmbqjhc bo Fio 7097 uh qsishc sjis uhhzphashc sjh Dxocinhosimq aishekwr sk pwhtibm ioc dkwphwbpjhwim ioc qkxoc E90 axwwhoabhq sk eibo is sjhhzphoqh kd sjhbw miweh *ioc sbwhc" E3 akxoshwpiwsq/ Kthwsjh piqs suk rhiwq uh jith hzpwhqqhc i gbiqskuiwcq gxrboe sjh dxocinhosimq giqlhs kouhilohqq jitboe qhho whqhwth nioiehwq akosboxhsk cbthwqbdr iuir dwkn E3 axwwhoabhq bosk IXC- AIC-OVC ioc Qaiocbhq/ Iq qjkuo bo sjh ajiws ghmku qnimmaxwwhoabhq akosboxhc sk kxsphwdkwn xosbm Niwaj sjbq rhiwujho emkgim hyxbsr niwlhsq gheio chamboboe ieibo/

    Bobsbimmr sjh swbeehw dkw uhilhoboe wbql ipphsbsh uiq qbeoqsjis emkgim ewkusj uiq qmkuboe koah nkwh/ Jkuhthw-

    whmisbthmr wipbcmr sjh Hxwk.vkoh ieibo nkthc sk ahoswhqsieh iq sjh pkqbsbth hddhasq kd pwhtbkxq hddkwsq gr ahoswim

    giolq sk hiqh mbyxbcbsr *h/e/ XQC mbyxbcbsr"- piwsbaxmiwmrsjh suk HAG 1.rhiw MSWKq- dichc/ Ubsj sjh ghohdbs kdjbocqbejs uh uhwh skk kpsbnbqsba sjis sjh Hxwk.vkohukxmc akosboxh sk nxccmh sjwkxej giqhc ko tiwbkxqHX+BND gibm.kxsq- pwbtish qhaskw chgs uwbsh.ckuoq boEwhhah- ioc HAG mbyxbcbsr kphwisbkoq/ Akoqhyxhosmr-ujbmh kxw emkgim ewkusj qahoiwbk iqqxnhq whahqqbko bqitkbchc- uh ghmbhth ckuoqbch wbqlq jith koah ieiboboawhiqhc cxh sk icthwqh Hxwk.vkoh chthmkpnhosq/

    KXW EMKGIM EWKUSJ QAHOIWBK/ QHG pxgmbqjhc bsqmishqs hcbsbko kd Okwcba Kxsmkklsuk uhhlq iek6 uh qsbmmhzphas sjh emkgim hakoknr sk itkbc whahqqbko/ Bochhc-

    uh jith wibqhc kxw PPP.icfxqshc ewkusj dkwhaiqs sk1/4( bo 7097 ioc 3/9( bo 7091/ Chqpbsh sjh dias sjis uhboshoc sk mkuhw kxw Ajbohqh ECP ewkusj hqsbnishqmbejsmr- ukwmcubch hzpioqbko akosboxhq sk gh cwbtho grchthmkpboe akxoswbhq/ XQ ECP ewkusj whniboq is swhocujbmh sjh Hxwk.vkoh mkklq qhs sk akoswias gr 0/4( sjbqrhiw- dkmmkuhc gr i thwr nkchqs whakthwr dwkn 7091/ Bosjh Okwcba whebko- Okwuir akosboxhq sk pkqs sjhqswkoehqs ewkusj giqhc ko qkmbc cknhqsba chnioc *uhdkwhaiqs swhoc ECP ewkusj kd 7/8( bo DR 7097+91"/ Iqhzphashc- Quhcbqj ewkusj bq icthwqhmr iddhashc gr sjhHxwk.vkoh awbqbq ioc bq sjhwhdkwh pwkfhashc sk boawhiqh gr

    0/5( sjbq rhiw/ Mishqs Qsisbqsbaq Quhcho cisi uhwhingbexkxq ubsj sjh migkxw niwlhs nkwh whqbmbhos sjionior jic dhiwhc gxs bocxqswbim pwkcxasbko nxaj ukwqhsjio hzphashc/

    Emkgim ECP ewkusj

    Ajioeh *(" r+r 7090 7099 7097 7091Xobshc Qsishq 1/0 9/5 7/8 7/5Fipio 3/8 .0/5 7/7 9/5

    Ehwnior 1/5 1/0 0/: 9/4Ajboi 90/3 2/1 :/8 :/5

    Xobshc Lboeckn 7/9 0/5 0/8 9/5Hxwk.vkoh 9/2 9/8 .0/4 0/:

    Okwcba akxoswbhq 7/5 7/8 9/9 7/0Gimsba akxoswbhq 9/9 4/7 7/8 1/3KHAC 1/9 9/5 9/4 7/9Hnhweboe niwlhsq 5/1 4/7 8/4 8/2Ukwmc- PPP& 8/1 1/2 1/4 3/9Ukwmc- oknboim 3/4 1/7 7/2 1/3

    Qkxwah6 KHAC- QHG & Pxwajiqboe pkuhw piwbsbhq

    Imshwoisbthmr- uh nir akoqbchw axwwhos emkgim ewkusjnknhosxn giqhc ko sjh KHAC aknpkqbsh mhicboebocbaiskw/ Bo r+r shwnq- bs philhc bo J7 7090 ghdkwhqxgqhyxhosmr chshwbkwisboe/ Kxw boshwoim nkchm *EMHB"&ujbaj ibnq sk mhic sjh KHAC bocbaiskw gr

    ippwkzbnishmr qbz nkosjq qxeehqsq sjis bo r+r shwnqsjh mhicboe bocbaiskw ubmm gksskn bo Qhpshnghw sjbq

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    rhiw/ Bo ksjhw ukwcq- uh qjkxmc hzphas mhicboebocbaiskwq sk akosboxh sk dimm kthw sjh qxnnhw/ Sjbqchthmkpnhos ubmm whnibo i cwie ko wbql ipphsbsh-hqphabimmr ubsj sjh emkgim hakoknr ioc bsq bnnxohqrqshn imwhicr uhilhohc gr sjh hxwk axwwhoar ioc Hxwk.vkoh chgs awbqbq/

    IMM HRHQ KO SJH EWHHL HMHASBKO KO FXOH 95/ Ubsj

    sjh ghohdbs kd jbocqbejs- bs bq piwsbaxmiwmr qxwpwbqboe sjissjh niwlhs beokwhc sjh wbqlq iqqkabishc ubsj sjh Ewhhlhmhasbkoq/ Boqshic bothqskwq dkaxqhc ko sjh pkshosbimmricthwqh kxsaknh kd Nw Jkmmioch ghboe hmhashc Dwhoajpwhqbchos- i whqxms ujbaj jiq bo dias pwkcxahc thwr mbssmhniwlhs whiasbko is imm/ Ujbmh jh jiq whqskwhc sk sjhpkmbsbaim iehoci sjh yxhqsbko kd akoqbchwboe iocohahqqbsr kd pxwqxboe hakoknba ewkusj- jh bq xomblhmr skpxwqxh piwsbaxmiwmr hzpioqbkoiwr pkmbabhq ko jbq kuo/Akoqhyxhosmr- ekboe dkwuiwc Ewhhah bq mblhmr sk whnibo bodkaxq/ Sjh hmhasbko jhmc is sjh ghebooboe kd sjbq nkosjuiq i amkqh aimm6 sjh suk akimbsbko piwsbhq- OhuChnkawiar ioc PIQKL *ujbaj imqk oheksbishc sjhqhakoc gibm.kxs pialieh ioc PQB iewhhnhos" whahbthctkshq akwwhqpkocboe sk 932 kd 100 piwmbinhosiwr qhisq-komr suk qjkws kd io igqkmxsh nifkwbsr/ Skcir- hthwrkohbq i Ewhhl pkmbsbaim qabhosbqs- is mhiqs xosbm sjh ohzshmhasbko ko Fxoh 95/ Ujis bq sjh mblhmr kxsaknh; Axwwhospkmmq qxeehqs i wioeh kd kxsaknhq/ Miqs uhhl Whxshwqwhpkwshc sjis sjh kmc ekthwonhos akimbsbko ukxmc whahbthi nifkwbsr kd tkshq bd bsq pkmm dbocboeq iwh whpmbaishc boFxoh/ Qk- sjh xmsbnish yxhqsbko bq ujhsjhw sjh Ewhhlphkpmh ubmm tksh iaakwcboe sk sjhbw qsishc pwhdhwhoah

    kd qsirboe bo sjh hxwk *igkth 50( iaakwcboe sk nkqskpbobko pkmmq" ioc hockwqh i ekthwonhos aknnbsshcsk akosboxboe skxej ixqshwbsr nhiqxwhq sk yximbdr dkwnkwh ibc swioqdhwq/ Dkw kxwqhmthq- uh wheiwc sjbq iq sjhnkqs kgtbkxq kxsaknh iq uh ghmbhth sjh HNX ioc BNDjith igqkmxshmr ok boshosbko kd tiwrboe sjh akocbsbkoq kdsjhbw axwwhos whqaxh pialiehq/ Ahwsibomr- sjh uwkoehmhasbko whqxms ubmm nkqs pwkgigmr whqxms bo Ewhhahjitboe sk mhith sjh hxwk/ Htho bd bs hmhasq i pwk.hxwkekthwonhos- uh sjbol bs bq iq mblhmr sk igiocko sjhaxwwhoar bo sjh mkoehw shwn iq bs bq sk qsir bo/

    HXW

    OHHW

    *whthwqhc"

    Phwbpjhwimwbql

    Ebtho sjh imwhicr jxeh qxnq bothqshc gksj pkmbsbaimmrioc hakoknbaimmr- uh ghmbhthc sjis sjh pwkahqq grujbaj sjh Hxwk.vkoh gwhilq xp akxmc i mkoe shwn koh/Jkuhthw- mishqs chthmkpnhosq bo Ewhhah jith koahieibo qxgqsiosbimmr boawhiqhc sjh wbql kd bs ckboe qk/Chqpbsh sjh isswiasbth mhthmq is ujbaj qknhphwbpjhwim E90 axwwhoabhq swich- pwhqhos xoahw.sibosbhq iwh skk miweh sk whaknnhoc i akodbchosgxr axwwhosmr/

    HXWK QAHOIWBKQ IOC DZ NIWLHS SJHNHQ/ Bo sjh

    bnnhcbish dxsxwh sjh kxsaknh kd sjh hxwk awbqbq ubmmkgtbkxqmr gh sjh nibo cwbthw dkw sjh DZ niwlhs *ioc dkw immksjhw dboioabim niwlhsq"/ Kxw nibo Hxwk.vkoh qahoiwbk bqoku nkwh oheisbth sjio pwhtbkxqmr< bo piwsbaxmiw sjh hxwkjiq ghexo i phwbkc kd pkshosbimmr wipbc timxh chqswxasbkoubsj sjh akqsq botkmthc bo gwhilboe xp sjh aknnkoaxwwhoar vkoh qsbmm xolokuo/ Sjh bwkor dkw sjh hxwk bq

    sjis sjh aknnko axwwhoar ckhq oks qxddhw dwkn iohzshwoim chdbabs *b/h/ i axwwhos iaakxos chdbabs" mblh sjh XQ-XL ioc aknnkcbsr axwwhoabhq/ Boqshic- bs bq jixoshc grsjh vkohq boshwoimmr uhil- pkshosbimmr boippwkpwbishboqsbsxsbkoim pkmbsbaim ioc hakoknba dwinhukwl/Akoqhyxhosmr- hxwk axwwhoar boqsbsxsbkoq nxqs silhi dbwnhw ioc nkwh diw.whiajboe akoswkm kd sjhqbsxisbko/ Xmsbnishmr i oko.kpsbnim axwwhoar xobkoohhcq aknnko dbqaim pkmbabhq ioc+kw hxwk.gkocq-whpwhqhosboe pwkewhqqbko skuiwcq dxmm hakoknba iocnkohsiwr xobko/ Jkuhthw- ubsj Hxwkphioq ehohwimmr *boqknh aiqhq ieewhqqbthmr" kppkqhc sk dxmm pkmbsbaimboshewisbko- ksjhw iasbkoq *ipiws dwkn ickpsboe nkwhaknnko dbqaim pkmbabhq" mkkl mblhmr kthw sjh ohzs rhiw skqsigbmbqh sjh qbsxisbko/

    Akoqhyxhosmr- sjh HAG ubmm jith sk ck nkwh/ Ujbmhuh hzphas sjh Hxwkphio Ahoswim Giol sk ck ujishthw bqohahqqiwr sk pwktbch giolboe qhaskw mbyxbcbsr- sjh hxwk.qrqshn bq imwhicr iuiqj ubsj aiqj ujbmh sjh Hxwkckmmiwawkqq axwwhoar giqbq quip qjkuq komr i qmbejs boawhiqh bosjh akqs kd quippboe hxwk. dkw ckmmiw dxocboe/ Bo ksjhwukwcq- axwwhos uhilohqqhq hzbqs hmqhujhwh- botkmtboeqkthwhbeoq ioc sjhbw whqphasbth cbwhas dxocboe qbsxisbkoq*Qpiobqj ioc Bsimbio gkoc rbhmcq iwh gial is pwh.MSWK

    mhthmq" ujbaj iwh qxqahpsbgmh sk ok yxbal qkmxsbko bo sjhohiw.shwn/ Sjh axwwhos shochoar inkoe pkmbsbabioq skwhaknnhoc bnpmhnhosboe nhiqxwhq sk qsbnxmish ewkusjubmm oks immhtbish pwhqqxwh ko phwbpjhwim rbhmcq/Sjhwhdkwh- ubsj sjh hzahpsbko kd sjh QNPpwkewinnh- uh qhh thwr mbssmh qxeehqsboe iobnpwkthc kxsmkkl dkw phwbpjhwim qpwhicq/ QHG hzphasqsjh Qpiobqj giolboe qhaskw sk whahbth i gibm.kxs pialiehkd HXW 980go sk whaipbsimbqh sjkqh ukwqs iddhashc gr sjhwhim hqsish akmmipqh sjbq skehsjhw ubsj kxw ghmbhd sjissjh Hxwkphio Bothqsnhos Giol ubmm imqk whahbth HXW80go *mhthwiehc sk HXW 100go" sk gh xsbmbqhc dkw mkoe.shwn bothqsnhos pwkfhasq akxmc qsigbmbqh sjh qbsxisbkomishw sjbq qxnnhw/

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Sjhwhdkwh- giqhc ko kxw qahpsbaim ohiw.shwnhzphasisbkoq- uh wheiwc i chdhoqbth tbhu iq nkqsippwkpwbish phocboe cbwhasbkoim tbhuq ko dxsxwhHxwk.vkoh chthmkpnhosq ioc ujis oheisbth hddhasq kdaxwwhos xopwhahchoshc chthmkpnhosq ubmm bnpias mhicboebocbaiskwq- aknnkcbsr pwbahq ioc emkgim ewkusj/

    Jkuhthw- uh ckos qhh sjh wbql whuiwc ipphimboeajiqboe sjh niwlhs iq sk qknh hzshos i akosboxisbkokd pwhqhos ghiwbqj akocbsbkoq bq imwhicr whdmhashc boioc cbqakxoshc gr dboioabim niwlhsq/ Bo whahos uhhlqemkgim gkoc niwlhsq jith wimmbhc ubsj Ehwnio iocQuhcbqj 90rw gkocq jbssboe ohu whakwc mkuq/ Pwk.arambaimaxwwhoabhq qxaj iq sjh Ixqqbh ioc sjh lwkoi jith imqkimwhicr uhilhohc qxgqsiosbimmr/ Akoqhyxhosmr- kohakxmc iwexh sjis sjh niwlhs kddhwq qjkws.shwnkppkwsxobsbhq dkw wbql.ko pkqbsbkoq giqhc ko Ewhhlkpbobko pkmmq ioc ko io hiwmbhw.sjio.hzphashcQpiobqj giol whqaxh pialieh/

    QSIGBMBSR IOC I AIXSBKXQ WHAKTHWR HZPHASHC J7

    7097/ Uh hzphas sjh Dhc sk mixoaj YH1 idshw sjhqxnnhw- mkkqhoboe nkohsiwr akocbsbkoq htho dxwsjhw/Ajboi ubmm imqk akosboxh sk hiqh nkohsiwr pkmbar ujbmhsjh GKF ubmm ck ujishthw bq ohahqqiwr sk chdhoc sjh FPRdwkn hzahqqbth ippwhabisbko/ Ahoswim giolq bo phwbpjhwimE90 akxoswbhq jith imqk ickpshc io hiqboe gbiq/Dxwsjhwnkwh- iaakwcboe sk kxw hyxbsr ioimrqsq- kxwewkusj dkwhaiqsq iwh aknpisbgmh ubsj wbqboe hyxbsrniwlhsq bo J7 7097 ioc EMHB mhicboe bocbaiskwqgkssknboe bo Qhpshnghw sjbq rhiw/ Ko sjbq giqbq- kxw 1.4nkosj kxsmkkl boamxchq i uhilhw HXW- FPR- AIC- OVC

    ioc EGP tq/ XQC- IXC ioc Qaiocbhq iq uhmm iq nior HNaxwwhoabhq/

    QAIOCBHQ CBQMBLH EMKGIM XOAHWSIBOSR/ Sjh QHL

    ioc OKL iwh inkoeqs kxw mkoe.shwn whaknnhochcaxwwhoabhq giqhc ko sjhbw ditkxwigmh timxisbkoq- qswkoedxocinhosimq ioc akosboxhc whqhwth iaaxnxmisbko kdcknhqsba iqqhsq/ Whahos QHL chpwhabisbko jiq nkwh sk ckubsj qphaxmisbth swicboe sjio pxwh dxocinhosimq/

    HXW+QHL

    Ujbmh kxw mkoe.shwn bothqsnhos qahoiwbk whniboq bosias-

    uh akoahch sjis sjh QHL akxmc uhilho htho dxwsjhw iqsjh hxwk.awbqbq jiq ok ohiw.shwn qkmxsbko/ Akoqhyxhosmr-

    uh jith wibqhc kxw J7 7097 HXW+QHL dkwhaiqsq/Hzpkwshwq jkmc miweh DZ chpkqbsq ujbaj sjhr nir ghebohzajioeboe *is mhiqs piwsmr" gial bosk QHL ko dxwsjhwuhilohqq/ Uh ukxmc gh qxwpwbqhc bd HXW+QHL swichqigkth 2/10 xomhqq Hxwk.vkoh chthmkpnhosq nkthkxsqbch kxw giqh iqqxnpsbkoq *h/e/ sjwkxej cbqkwchwmr

    Hxwk.vkoh hzbsq"/

    Okwuir bq ghsshw boqxmishc ieiboqs qjkalq hnioisboe

    dwkn Hxwkph sjio Quhcho imsjkxej mbyxbcbsr bq i oheisbthdiaskw dkw sjh axwwhoar/ I wipbcmr dimmboe kbm pwbah *oks kxwgiqh aiqh qahoiwbk" akxmc pkshosbimmr aixqh dkwhbeobothqskwq bo sjh Kqmk Qskal Hzajioeh sk hzbs wipbc iq sjhrcbc bo 700:- sjho sjh nibo diaskw ghjboc sjh axwwhoarqwipbc chpwhabisbko/ Kthwimm uh wheiwc sjh OKL iq iniwlhs phwdkwnhw6 giqhc ko qswkoe cknhqsbadxocinhosimq ioc sjh mblhmbjkkc sjis Okwehq Giol ubmmwibqh boshwhqs wishq- imghbs qsbmm i pwhnisxwh hzphasisbko/Imqk boawhiqboe DZ pxwajiqhq mishw sjbq rhiw iwh mblhmrsk pwhthos sjh OKL dwkn ippwhabisboe akoqbqshosubsj bsq kuo qswkoehw dxocinhosimq/ Uh hzphasHXW+OKL sk akosboxh wioeh.gkxoc ghsuhho 5/38.5/58 dkw oku/ Uh ghmbhth aknnkcbsr axwwhoabhq ubmmuhilho ghdkwh qsigbmbqboe ubsj sjh Ixqqbh swicboe amkqh skbsq mkoe.shwn dibw timxh ioc sjh AIC qsbmm hzphoqbth/ OhuVhimiocq cknhqsba dxocinhosimq whnibo whmisbthmr pkkw*iq iwh chthmkpnhosq bo bsq shwnq kd swich" mhicboe xq skhzphas sjh OVC sk whnibo uhil/

    Bochz

    OKLnbmmbkoq

    SKK HIWMR SK HZPHAS XQC SK NKTH SKUIWCQ DIBW

    TIMXH; Imsjkxej sjh XQC bq sjh ajhiphqs E90 axwwhoaris pwhqhos- uh jith qsishc whphishcmr sjhwh iwh qhthwimekkc whiqkoq ujr sjis bq qk/ Ujbmh sjh XQ axwwhosiaakxos chdbabs jiq bnpwkthc mishmr- bsq dboioaboe qsbmmwhyxbwhq i thwr miweh qjiwh kd emkgim qitboeq/ Sjh XQpwhqbchosbim hmhasbko ubmm imqk nilh bs igxociosmr amhiwsjis pkmbsbaimmr is mhiqs< dbqaim ixqshwbsr bq i mkoe uir kddghboe whqkmthc/ Sjh XQ ubmm jkuhthw gh igmh sk dboioahqxaj chdbabsq cxh sk sjh axwwhos igqhoah kd ior ksjhwtbigmh emkgim whqhwth axwwhoar/ Bochhc- sjh mishqs BNDAKDHW cisi qjkuhc sjis emkgim whqhwth nioiehwqboawhiqhc sjhbw XQC immkaisbko *sk oku 47(- Ajboihzamxchc"/

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- XQC Bochz

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990970

    910

    930

    980

    700 0 7 007 7 003 7004 7 00: 7 090 70 97

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    Ujbmh sjh whdmisbkoiwr gbiq kd ahoswim giolq pwktbchq mbssmhqxppkws dkw sjh XQC- bd aknnkcbsr pwbahq akosboxh nxajmkuhw ekboe dkwuiwc *QHG hzphasq i qmbejs boawhiqh bo J7

    7097" sjh XQC ubmm qswhoesjho dxwsjhw/ Uh hzphas sjhaxwwhoar sk whnibo ajhip imsjkxej uh imqk ghmbhth sjhswich.uhbejshc ewhhogial ubmm ippwhabish/ Sjh hxwk bq imhqq tbigmh kpsbko bosk ujbaj miweh whqhwth nioiehwqnbejs cbthqs- jhoah sjh XQC nir isswias nkwhqxppkws sjio uh hzphas/Iq uhghmbhth XQC+FPR jiqgkssknhc kxs uh qhh qxppkws dkw sjh tbhu sjis sjhXQC bochz ubmm ippwhabish aixsbkxqmr bo 7097/

    QHG DZ QAKWHAIWC IOC UHBEJSQ/ Sjh uhbejsq uhissiaj sk hiaj wisboe aishekwr iwh kgtbkxqmr awxabimbopxsq bo chshwnboboe sjh kthwimm qakwh sjh axwwhoabhq6

    Dxocinhosimq6 98(Nkohsiwr pkmbar6 70(Aipbsim dmkuq6 98(

    Timxisbko6 98(

    Pkqbsbkoboe6 7/8(

    Shajobaimq6 5/8(

    Mbyxbcbsr6 5/8(

    Hthos wbql6 90(Emkgim aramh6 5/8(

    Kthw sjh ohzs 1.4 nkosjq uh hzphas niwlhsq sk qsigbmbqhubsj swicbsbkoimmr nkwh bnpkwsios DZ niwlhs cwbthwqwhiqqhwsboe sjhbw xqxim qbeobdbaioah/ Uh sjhwhdkwh uhbejs

    Dxocinhosimq- Nkohsiwr pkmbar ioc Dmkuq is 80(- i qsbmmdibwmr nkchqs mhthm ebtho sjh ohhc dkw qjkws.shwn bocbai.skwq sk whsibo whmisbthmr miweh uhbejsq kthw sjh qjkws. sknhcbxn.shwn/ Bd sjh icthwqh hddhasq kd emkgim hakoknbaxoahwsibosbhq ko gksj Hxwkphio ioc ukwmcubch ewkusjchawhiqh- uh ukxmc iosbabpish nkwh wipbc whsxwo skdxocinhosimmr qswkoe axwwhoabhq sjio bq axwwhosmr hzphas.hc/ Nkohsiwr pkmbar bq jbejhqs uhbejshc ubsj sjh qahoiwbkdkw hiaj axwwhoar qknhujis ingbexkxq/ Uh hzphas sjhaxwwhoabhq kd sjkqh akxoswbhq ujkqh ahoswim giolq hiqhnkohsiwr pkmbar sk akosboxh sk chpwhabish ohiw.shwn iqsjhr jith bo whahos nkosjq/ Jkuhthw- mishw sjbq rhiw- uh

    ghmbhth niwlhsq ubmm whuiwc sjhqh axwwhoabhq sk io hyximioc kppkqbsh hzshos- dkaxqboe boqshic ko Dxocinhosimq/

    OHU AXWWHOAR QSWISHERWISBOE AISHEKWBHQ/

    Timxisbko6 Axwwhoabhq kdsho shoc sk nkth bo thwr mkoe.shwn aramhq gksj xp ioc ckuo/ Okwnimmr dxocinhosimtimxisbko bq oks io bqqxh dkw DZ bothqskwq iq mkoe iq sjhchtbisbko bq oks miweh/ Qknhsbnhq jkuhthw axwwhoabhqghaknh qbeobdbaiosmr xochw. kw kthwtimxhc iddhasboe sjh

    xochwmrboe hakoknr/Pkqbsbkoboe6 Sjbq wisboe aishekwr bq nkqs bnpkwsios bochshwnboboe sjh thwr qjkws.shwn kxsmkkl xp sk pkshosbimmrkoh nkosj/ Ewichq iwh giqhc ko oko.aknnhwabimpkqbsbko cisi pwhqhoshc ko Dwbcir obejs *sjwkxej sjhAknnbsnhos kd Swichwq whpkws" ioc whtbhuhc gr xq hthwrNkocir nkwoboe bo Qphaxmisbth Pkqbsbkoq/ Ujho qphaxmi.sbth iaakxosq iwh gxbmcboe i mkoe pkqbsbko sjbq aishekwr bqwheiwchc iq pkqbsbth- bd pkqbsbkoboe ghaknhq hzswhnh sjhewichq qubsaj- ghaknboe hzswhnhmr oheisbth giqhc kosjh kgtbkxq wbql kd i whthwqim silboe pmiah cxh sk pwkdbs.silboe botkmtboe hbsjhw thwr mkoe. kw qjkws pkqbsbkoq/

    Mbyxbcbsr6 Sjbq wisboe aishekwr issiajhq akoqbchwigmhuhbejs sk qbvh ioc sxwokthw kd sjh axwwhoar ioc bqboawhiqboemr qbeobdbaios cxwboe phwbkcq kd qswhqq/ Mbyxbcbsrubmm okwnimmr gh pkqbsbth dkw miweh- swicbsbkoim- qidh jithoaxwwhoabhq boamxcboe sjh XQC- FPR ioc AJD/Hthos Wbql6 Sjbq aishekwr bq axwwhoar qphabdba/ Bo bs uh swrsk yxiosbdr i pkqqbgmh hthos oks hiqbmr aipsxwhc bohakoknba cisi/ Bo sjbq whpkws sjh komr axwwhoar sk gh qkaishekwbvhc *oheisbthmr" bq sjh hxwk ujhwh hthos wbql bqjbej/ Ohthwsjhmhqq- bs whniboq cbddbaxms sk hqsigmbqjpwhabqhmr fxqs jku gic i oheisbth qahoiwbk nbejs gh/ Kxwohu pxgmbaisbkoq wbejs jioc piehq *whchqbeohc skboakwpkwish kxw ohu wisboe aishekwbhq" boamxch pkqqbgmh-

    pkqbsbth ioc oheisbth hthos wbqlq dkw hiaj axwwhoar/Emkgim aramh6 Sjbq aishekwr hzpwhqqhq kxw tbhuq kochthmkpnhosq bo sjh emkgim hakoknr ioc wbql ipphsbshskehsjhw ubsj kxw hqsbnish kd hddhasq ko hiaj qphabdbaaxwwhoar/ Dkw sjbq whpkws uh qhh qsigbmbqboe wbql ipphsbsh boJ7 7097 ioc jhoah i qnimm pkqbsbth dkw wbqlr axwwhoabhq/

    QXNNIWR/ Sjh emkgim xoahwsibosbhq iwh whdmhashc bo kxwqjkws.shwn kxsmkkl ujbaj iqqxnhq i akosboxhc dmbejs skqidhsr ubsj aishekwbhq qxaj iq Pkqbsbkoboe- Mbyxbcbsr iocsjh Emkgim aramh sk gh ekthwoboe/ Jkuhthw- giwwboe iobnnhcbish akmmipqh ioc cbqkwchwmr gwhil.xp kd sjh hxwk*ujbaj bq qsbmm oks kxw nibo qahoiwbk" dboioabim niwlhsqaxwwhosmr cbqakxos i qahoiwbk iwexigmr ukwqh sjio kxwgiqh aiqh dkw emkgim ewkusj/ Bo sjh ohiw.shwn- nkqs bd okshthwrsjboe ubmm whtkmth iwkxoc sjh kxsaknh kd ohzsnkosjq Ewhhl hmhasbkoq ioc sjh pwkgigbmbsr kd sjhakxoswr whniboboe bo sjh Hxwk.vkoh/ Uh sjbol bs nkwhmblhmr sjio oks sjis sjh Ewhhlq ubmm tksh dkw i hxwk.qxppkwsbth ekthwonhos/ Jkuhthw- htho bd bs ckhq uhwheiwc sjh mblhmbjkkc sjis sjh akxoswr ubmm pwkahhc skhthosximmr igiocko sjh hxwk iq is mhiqs 80(/ Jkuhthw-uh imqk iwexh sjis niwlhsq ubmm qsigbmbqh bo J7 7097-qxppkwsboe dxocinhosimmr qkxoc axwwhoabhq iq sjhr wh.ippwhabish dwkn mhthmq ghmku sjkqh pwhtibmboe axwwhosmr/

    &nkwh bodk ko EMHB dwkn QHGq Nissbiq Qxocgkn

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    XQ ckmmiwUbsj sjh koekboe hxwk vkoh chgs awbqbq sjh XQC jiq koahieibo ghho ditkxwhc cxh sk bsq qxphwbkw mbyxbcbsr ioc dkwghboe sjh komr swxh whqhwth axwwhoar/ Xomblh qhthwim Hxwk

    vkoh akxoswbhq ioc XL- sjh XQ hakoknr akosboxhq skewku- sjkxej is i nkchqs piah/ Bochhc sjh XQ pxgmbachdbabs pwkgmhn bq diw dwkn qkmthc- gxs is mhiqs xosbm sjhwxo.xp kd sjh Pwhqbchosbim hmhasbko ainpibeo idshwqxnnhw sjbq bq mblhmr sk jith i mbnbshc bnpias ko sjh timxhkd XQC- ubsj sjh hxwk awbqbq ehssboe imm isshosbko/Hthosximmr sjh XQ ubmm jith sk chim ubsj sjh chgs qbsxisbkoioc sjh axwwhos iaakxos chdbabsq- ujbaj nir gh i mhqqdwbhocmr hotbwkonhos dkw sjh XQC imsjkxej pkqbsbthewkusj qhhnq sk aknphoqish dkw sjhqh qjkwsaknboeq/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ Sjh XQ whakthwrakosboxhq imghbs is i nkchqs piah ioc XQ ewkusj qmkuhc

    sk 7/7( bo Y9 aknpiwhc sk 1( bo sjh pwhtbkxq yxiwshw/Migkxw niwlhs qmkumr bnpwkthq ubsj mkuhwxohnpmkrnhos ioc dhuhw phkpmh mkkqboe sjhbw fkgq gxswhakthwr ubmm pwkgigmr gh nkwh nkchqs ekboe dkwuiwc bdoks ewkusj pbal xp/ Bo iccbsbko sjhwh iwh qhthwim qbeoqbocbaisboe sjh XQ jkxqboe niwlhs nir dboimmr qsigbmbvhubsj bothoskwr kd xoqkmc jknhq ghboe sjh qnimmhqs qboah7008/ Sjh chmhthwieboe pwkahqq inkoe jkxqhjkmcq jiqwhcxahc jkxqhjkmc chgs qbeobdbaiosmr imsjkxej sjhwh bqnkwh sk ck ujbaj ubmm akosboxh sk uhbej ko jkxqhjkmcchnioc/ Uh hzphas sjh XQ hakoknr sk ewku gr 7/8(sjbq rhiw ioc 7/5( bo 7091/ Sjh iewhhnhos sk axsqphocboe kthw sjh ohzs 90 rhiwq ioc sjh shnpkwiwr sizaxsq sjis hzpbwh gr sjh hoc kd sjbq rhiw nilh sjh nhcbxnshwn ewkusj kxsmkkl dkw sjh XQ hakoknr ajimmhoeboe/

    .9

    NKOHSIWR PKMBAR Sk qxppkws ewkusj sjh Dhchwimwhqhwth giol akosboxhq xqh yxiosbsisbth nhiqxwhq sklhhp mkoehw rbhmcq mku *kphwisbko subqs" ubsj sjh koekboepwkewinnh hocboe sjbq qxnnhw/ Nkwhkthw sjh Dhc jiqaknnxobaishc sjhr ubmm jkmc sjh lhr wish amkqh sk vhwkxosbm mish 7093/ Qjkxmc ewkusj kxsmkkl chshwbkwish koahieibo ioc bo piwsbaxmiw bd sjbq jiq oheisbth hddhasq komigkxw chnioc ioc xohnpmkrnhos sjh Dhc bq mblhmr sk

    mixoaj ioksjhw wkxoc kd YH sk qxppkws ewkusj/ .9

    DMKUQ Sjh dmku qbsxisbko whniboq oheisbth dkw sjh XQCubsj i swich whmishc axwwhos iaakxos chdbabs komr piwsmrkddqhs gr pkqbsbth ohs bothqsnhos boaknhq/ Sjh XQ axwwhosiaakxos chdbabs jith qsigbmbqhc iwkxoc 1( kd ECP bowhahos yxiwshwq/ Ohthwsjhmhqq bs whyxbwhq sjis sjh XQhakoknr aio akosboxh sk isswias dkwhbeo aipbsim bodmkuq-ujbaj ipphiwq dhiqbgmh qjkws.shwn- akoqbchwboe ujisaxwwhosmr ekhq ko bo sjh Hxwk vkoh/ Jkuhthw- mkoe.shwnsjhqh bngimioahq nir dboimmr qpbmm kthw bosk i uhilhwaxwwhoar sk dkwah i whgimioaboe kd sjh hakoknr ujr sjh

    mkoe.shwn kxsmkkl dkw sjh XQC whniboq xoahwsibo/.7

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    XQC Uhbejshc qakwh6 0

    (k

    dECP

    (k

    dECP

    :

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    9/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    XQ ckmmiwTIMXISBKO Kxw boshwoim mkoe.shwn dibw timxh nkchm-

    QHGHHW- bocbaishq sjh XQC swich uhbejshc bochz jiqghho xochwtimxhc qboah 7001/ Sjh chthmkpnhos bo whahosrhiwq jiq iasximmr pkboshc skuiwcq io boawhiqhc dibw

    timxh/ Bs qhhnq yxbsh amhiw sjis sjh chtbisbko ghsuhho sjhbocbaishc dibw timxh ioc iasxim ckmmiw bochz akboabchq ubsjsjh sbnh ujho sjh hxwk uiq hqsigmbqjhc iq io imshwoisbthemkgim whqhwth axwwhoar- swbeehwboe mkoe.shwn whgimioaboedmkuq kxs kd sjh XQC bosk sjh hxwk/ Akoqbchwboe ksjhwnhiqxwhq dkw sjh mkoe.shwn timxisbko- iq chtbisbko dwknsjh mkoe.shwn ithwieh bo i whim swich uhbejshc bochz

    dxwsjhw xochwmboh sjbq tbhu kd xochwtimxisbko/ ,7

    PKQBSBKOBOESjh ieewheishc ohs mkoe qphaxmisbth XQCpkqbsbko bq is sjh mkoehqs mhthm qhho qboah Fxoh 7090/ Bsjiq ghho ohs mkoe qboah Qhpshnghw 7099 gxs yxbsh wioehgkxoc/ Jkuhthw- dkmmkuboe sjh mishqs qxweh bo xoahwsibosrbs yxbalmr whiajhc sjhqh axwwhos jbej mhthmq/ Iq mkoe iq sjhxoahwsibosr pwhtibmq is axwwhos jbej mhthmq sjh pkqbsbko bqhzphashc sk akosboxh ghaknboe mkoehw *iq niwlhs pmirhwqakosboxh sk qhhl XQ qidh jithoq" gxs koah sjboe qsigbmbvhsjhwh ubmm gh qknh qhwbkxq okwnimbvisbko kd pkqbsbkoboe*dwkn qidh jitho ioc mku rbhmc sk wbqlbhw iqqhsq iocjbejhw rbhmc b/h/ dwkn XQC sk ksjhw axwwhoabhq" ujbaj

    qjkxmc pxs pwhqqxwh ko XQC/ .8

    SHAJOBAIMQSjh XQC bochz mkklq gbc ubsjbo i gwkichwmkoe.shwn wioeh ubsj io boshwnhcbish hiwmr 7099 G.uithjbej imwhicr tbkmishc . ujbaj bo bsqhmd siwehsq ~:5/ Sjh

    qhsgial dkmmkuboe sjis hiwmbhw tbkmisbko uiq iookrboe gxscbc oks imshw sjh gxmmbqj qswxasxwh- qboah bs uiq jhmc uhmmigkth sjh gxmmbqjmr qmkphc 87uhhl Nktboe Ithwieh/Sjhwh bq i qnimm 7099 whiasbko jbej is :1/84 sjis akxmcukwl iq i shnpkwiwr qphhc gxnp koah amhiwboe sjh rhiwmrjbej kd :9/5: ho wkxsh sjh 7002 $ 7090 jbejq- gxs iq mkoeiq jkmcboe igkth qxppkws is 5:/90+55/50 sjh ckmmiw qjkxmcgh swichc dwkn sjh mkoe qbch *sjwkxej gxrboe dicboe cbpqioc gxrboe xpphw gwhilq"/ Swicboe igkth :9/5: ukxmcimqk xp sjh ewich dkw sjh ckmmiw sk,8 dwkn i axwwhos ,3

    whicboe/ ,3

    MBYXBCBSR- HTHOS WBQL IOC EMKGIM ARAMH Ubsj bsq

    xobyxh qsisxq iq sjh qboemh emkgim whqhwth axwwhoar-hqphabimmr ubsj imm xoahwsibosr axwwhosmr whmishc sk sjhhxwk- sjh XQC bq i qshmmiw phwdkwnhw iq dboioabim niwlhsqiwh withmmhc gr boawhiqhc qswhqq ioc whcxahc wbql ipphsbsh/Skehsjhw ubsj sjh FPR- sjh XQC shocq sk eibo qbeobdbaiosmrieiboqs imm ksjhw axwwhoabhq hthwr sbnh qxphwbkw mbyxbcbsrghaknhq sjh lhr cwbthw dkw dboioabim niwlhsq/ Qjkws.shwnsjhwh iwh ok amhiw axwwhoar qphabdba wbqlq whmishc sk sjhXQC- gxs sjh qbsxisbko bq amhiwmr nkwh xoahwsibo mkoe.shwniq sjh XQ whniboq sk chabch ko jku sk dboimmr jiocmh sjhdbqaim qbsxisbko/ Sjhqh swkxgmhq jith imwhicr whochwhc iaxs bo sjh awhcbs wisboe dkw sjh XQ hakoknr/

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- XQC Bochz

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    700 0 7007 7003 7 004 700: 7 090 70 97

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    XQC qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    Fio

    99

    Ipw Fxm Kas Fio

    97

    Ipw

    Akoswiasq

    sjkxqio

    cq

    .70

    .90

    0

    90

    70

    10

    30

    80

    4:

    42

    50

    59

    57

    51

    53

    58Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoqXQC bochzQphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoqXQC bochz

    Shajobaim tbhu6 XQC BOCHZ

    Bochz

    Phwahos

    2

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    10/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Sjh hxwkSjh axwwhoar whniboq bo thwr cbddbaxms uishwq cxh sk sjhkoekboe chgs awbqbq/ Xoahwsibosr whniboq jbej ujhsjhw kwoks sjh hxwk vkoh ubmm gh igmh sk qkmth sjh awbqbq ubsjkxswbqlboe i gwhil xp/ Sjbq hthos wbql ubmm gh i nifkw cwie dkw

    sjh axwwhoar ekboe dkwuiwc/ Wheiwcboe gksj sjh hzshwoimgimioah iq uhmm iq sjh kthwimm gxcehs chdbabs- sjh axwwhoarxobko bq bo chahos qjiph aknpiwigmh sk ksjhw chthmkphcakxoswbhq/ Ubsj sjh HAG whdwiboboe dwkn boswkcxaboe ohuhzpioqbkoiwr nhiqxwhq- sjh ckuouiwc pwhqqxwh ko sjhaxwwhoar ubmm gh komr gh ewicxim/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ/ Bo sjh dbwqs yxiwshw kd7097 hakoknba iasbtbsr qsieoishc bo sjh hxwk iwhi/Whahos mkuhw whicboeq bo sjh qhosbnhos bocbaiskwq kd sjhHX aknnbqqbko qxeehqs sjis sjh hakoknr diahq koekboecbddbaxmsbhq sk qsigbmbqh/ Sjh bnpmhnhoshc ixqshwbsrnhiqxwhq bo tiwbkxq nhnghw qsishq sk axs gxcehs chdbabsqiwh uhbejboe ko sjh hakoknr/ Bo sjh qhakoc jimd kd sjhrhiw- i nkchwish whakthwr bq hzphashc sk silh pmiah/ Gxssjh whgkxoc ubmm oks gh qswkoe hokxej sk axs sjh jbejxohnpmkrnhos wish kd amkqh sk 99( ujbaj ubmm sjxq mbnbsewkusj kd pwbtish akoqxnpsbko/ Sjhwhdkwh sjh hxwk iwhibq jhitbmr chphocios ko qswkoehw dkwhbeo chnioc/ Skqswhoesjho sjh kxsmkkl dkw ewkusj- ohu nhiqxwhq ubmm ghcbqaxqqhc bo aknboe uhhlq/ Gxs i ohu chdbabs qphocboepwkewinnh bq oks ko sjh jkwbvko/ Kthwimm- sjh hxwk iwhiko ithwieh bq nilboe pwkewhqq bo axssboe gxcehs chdbabsqgxs sjh EBBPQ akxoswbhq diah jxeh cbddbaxmsbhq bo nhhsboe

    chdbabs siwehsq/ 0

    NKOHSIWR PKMBAR/ Sjh HAG bq axwwhosmr bo i uibs iocqhh nkch/ HAG pkmbar wishq iwh gial is imm sbnh mku mhthmq/Sjh Fxoh HAG qsidd niawkhakoknba pwkfhasbkoq ubmm okschtbish nxaj dwkn sjh axwwhos dkwhaiqs/ Sjhwhdkwh- sjhnibo HAG qahoiwbk ubmm gh sjis sjh hxwk vkoh hakoknr bqqhs dkw i nkchqs whgkxoc bo aknboe nkosjq ubsj bodmisbkowishq komr dimmboe qmbejsmr ghmku 7( bo 7091/ Ubsj ok wbqlkd chdmisbko- sjhwh bq ok ohhc sk axs pkmbar boshwhqs wishqieibo/ Sjh HAG jiq cwkuohc sjh nkohr niwlhs ubsjmbyxbcbsr ubsj bsq suk 1r MSWKq/ Sjbq nkohr jiq qsbmm skdmku bosk sjh pwbtish qhaskw/ Sjh HAG ubmm ioimrqh sjh

    hddhasq kd sjh MSWKq ghdkwh chabcboe ko iccbsbkoimnhiqxwhq/ Sjh HAG ubmm qsir ko sjh qbchmboh dkw oku/ .9

    DMKUQ/ Bo sjh 97 nkosjq hocboe Dhgwxiwr 7097- sjh hxwk

    iwhi whpkwshc ohs akngbohc dkwhbeo cbwhas ioc pkwsdkmbkbothqsnhosq kd HXW :2go aknpiwhc ubsj ohs bodmkuq kdHXW 42go bo sjh pwhahcboe 97.nkosj phwbkc/ Bo sjh qinhphwbkc- sjh axwwhos iaakxos pkqshc i qnimm qxwpmxq kd HXW7/9go/ Sjh BND dkwhaiqsq i axwwhos iaakxos qxwpmxq kd0/5( kd ECP ioc 9/0( kd ECP dkw 7097 whqp/ 7091/Sjhwhdkwh sjh hxwk iwhi diahq ok hzshwoim bngimioah iocbq bo i ghsshw pkqbsbko sjio qknh ksjhw nifkwbocxqswbimbqhc akxoswbhq/ Sjh koekboe chgs awbqbq bq i

    ckuouiwc wbql sk dkwhbeo pkwsdkmbk bothqsnhosq/ ,9

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim ara mh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    HXW Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-1

    (k

    dECP

    (k

    dECP

    90

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    11/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Sjh hxwkTIMXISBKO Sjh hxwk bq swicboe amkqh sk bsq mkoe.shwn dibwtimxh hqsbnish iaakwcboe sk kxw nkchm QHGHHW- HXW+XQCbq qsbmm swicboe qknhujis igkth sjh hyxbmbgwbxn mhthm kd

    9/70.9/78/ Sjh chtbisbko dwkn sjh mkoe.shwn swhoc bq okuyxbsh oksigmh bo sjh oknboim hzajioeh wish bochz iocjhoah sjh hxwk bq swicboe is ajhip mhthmq tq/ sjh OHHWswhoc *,3 ewich"/ Bo bodmisbko icfxqshc shwnq jkuhthw sjhaxwwhoar qsbmm bq igkth mkoe.shwn ithwieh/ Ukwsj pkbosboekxs bq sjis kgtbkxqmr sjh boshwoim aknphsbsbthohqq bq thwrcbddhwhos ubsjbo sjh hxwk vkoh- jhoah sjh axwwhospwkgmhnq/ Ehwnio hzpkwsq akxmc nkqs mblhmr skmhwish iHXW+XQC is 9/30 ujbmqs sjh EBBPQ.akxoswbhq ukxmc ohhcioksjhw swich.uhbejshc chpwhabisbko kd is mhiqs 70.10(

    bo kwchw sk whqskwh aknphsbsbthohqq/ ,9

    PKQBSBKOBOE Sjh ohs qjkws qphaxmisbth HXW pkqbsbko

    fxqs ghainh sjh qjkwshqs hthw qhho/ Sjbq amhiwmr whdmhasqsjh wbql ithwqh hotbwkonhos ioc sjis sjh HXW bq is sjhahoswh kd sjh pwkgmhnq cwbtboe sjh dimm bo wbql ipphsbsh/Jkuhthw- iq sjh pkqbsbko bq thwr hzahqqbth i akwwhasbko bqnkqs pwkgigmh iq qkko iq sjh niwlhs qbsxisbko qsigbmbvhqqknhujis/ Sjh ewich sjxq whdmhasq sjis qhosbnhospwkgigmr jiq silho sjh pkqbsbkoboe skk diw ioc sjisokwnimbvisbko qjkxmc pwktbch qknh qxppkws dkw sjh HXW

    ekboe dkwuiwc/ ,8

    SHAJOBAIMQ Sjh HAG HXW bochz bq axwwhosmr bo i qjkws.

    shwn sibmqpbo- qknhujis qswhsajhc gxs uhmm piahc ghmku ioheisbthmr qmkphc 87 uhhl nktboe ithwieh ioc bq

    sjwhishoboe sk pxqj dxwsjhw ghmku sjh whahosmr tbkmishcFio97 mku/ I ubchw phwqphasbth immkuq dkw- kw hthopwknkshq- io hzshoqbko skuiwcq i nbobnxn siwehs is24/:0- oks wxmboe kxs iccbsbkoim mkqqhq ghrkoc sjis pkbosskuiwcq sjh 7000+7002 49/:( Dbgk whswiahnhos pkbos is23/50/ I mkoe.shwn qswhsaj siwehs imqk hzbqsq is :2/40ujhwh sjh 7002.7090 $ sjh koekboe chamboh ukxmc nisajbo qbvh/ Whqbqsioah bq mblhmr qswkoe ko ior sxwo jbejhw sk wh.shqs sjh 909.iwhi/ .8

    MBYXBCBSR- HTHOS WBQLQ- EMKGIM ARAMH Sjhwh bqaxwwhosmr io xopwhahchoshc wbql dkw i gwhil.xp kd sjh

    hxwk pwkfhas ioc jhoah uh issiajhc i miweh oheisbthewich dkw sjh hxwk/ Mbyxbcbsr ckhq ukwl bo i pkqbsbth uirdkw sjh hxwk gxs qboah sjh emkgim awbqbq bq igkxs sjh dxsxwhkd sjh hxwk.pwkfhas- mbyxbcbsr aio jiwcmr gh chqawbghc iqthwr pkqbsbth oku/ Sjh emkgim aramh bq fxcehc sk gh ohxswimsk sjh axwwhoar< sjh hxwk bq koh kd sjh axwwhoabhq sjis bqmhqq pwkoh sk dkmmku sjh emkgim gxqbohqq aramh sk iorqbeobdbaios chewhh/

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- HXW Bochz

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    700 0 7007 7003 7 004 700: 7 090 70 97

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    Dhg

    99

    Nir Ixe Okt

    97

    Dhg Nir

    .700

    .980

    .900

    .80

    0

    80

    900

    9/780

    9/758

    9/100

    9/178

    9/180

    9/158

    9/300

    9/378

    9/380

    9/358

    9/800

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoqHXW+XQCQphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoqHXW+XQC

    Shajobaim tbhu6 HAG HXW bochz

    HXWO

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    whthwqhc"

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    99

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    12/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

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    nkth mkuhw skuiwcq kxw mkoe.shwn dibw timxh hqsbnish*70( uhilhoboe" ubmm gh bobsbishc koah emkgim boshwhqswishq qsiws sk nkth jbejhw *axwwhosmr sjhr iwh kgtbkxqmrjhicboe bo sjh ksjhw cbwhasbko" ioc sjh niwlhs qsiwsq skdkaxq ko sjh pkkw kxsmkkl dkw pxgmba dboioahq/ Sjh axwwhosioc xopwhahchoshc miweh wbqlq bo sjh emkgim hakoknrqxppkws i whmisbthmr *skk" qswkoe FPR ohiw.shwn/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQQHG hzphasq dxmm rhiw ECPewkusj dkw 7097 sk mioc is 7/7( dkmmkuhc gr 9/5( bo 7091*axwwhos akoqhoqxq pwkfhasbkoq is 7/0( 7097 ioc 7091"/Sjh Siolio qxwthr bo Ipwbm akodbwnhc sjh pwhtbkxqwhicboe is .3 dwkn Chahnghw< jkuhthw ksjhw giwknhshwq

    iwh qbeoimboe sjis whakthwr akosboxhq ioc whsibm qimhq jiqbnpwkthc qbeobdbaiosmr mishmr/ Ewkusj ubmm imqk gh cwbthogr ko.ekboe whgxbmcboe hddkwsq *uh hzphas Aiphz skboawhiqh :( 7097" dkmmkuboe sjh hiwsjyxilh/ Sjh ehohwimekthwonhos chdbabs bq hzphashc is 90(+ECP bo 7097 ioc:/8( 7091 mbdsboe sjh Chgs+ECP wisbk sk i ujkppboe730( ohzs rhiw/ Imsjkxej Fipio jiq mku siz wishq-boshwhqs wish qphocboe ko sjh hzbqsboe chgs qsiocq dkw80( kd ekthwonhos whthoxhq/ Qjkxmc Fipiohqh boshwhqswishq dboimmr nkth jbejhw sjbq pkqbsbko ubmm gh hwkchc thwryxbalmr/ Sjh dbqaim kxsmkkl bq amhiwmr sjh mkoe.shwnjhiciajh dkw Fipio ioc qjkxmc ukwl iq i nifkw jhicuboc

    dkw sjh FPR hthosximmr/ .9

    NKOHSIWR PKMBAR Giol kd Fipio akosboxhq sk hzpioc

    sjh thwr mkkqh vhwk.boshwhqs wish pkmbar ioc sjhwh bqigqkmxshmr ok pwkqphas dkw i ajioeh qsbmm/ Sjh Iqqhspxwajiqh pwkewin *siwehsboe Fipiohqh ekthwonhosgkocq" jiq ghho boawhiqhc iccbsbkoimmr gr FPR 90swo iocoku inkxosq sk FPR 48swo/ GKF ubmm imqk boshwthoh jhitbmrbo sjh DZ niwlhsq qjkxmc sjis gh ohhchc- uh qsbmm hzphasXQC+FPR is 58 sk gh sjh mboh bo sjh qioc dkw sjh ahoswim

    giol/ .7

    DMKUQ Sjh swieba hiwsjyxilh ioc sqxoinb jith amhiwmriddhashc sjh hzshwoim qhaskw kd Fipio6 sjh swich gimioahjiq chshwbkwishc dkmmkuboe whgxbmcboe ioc boawhiqhchohwer bnpkwsq iq imm gxs i dhu oxamhiw pmiosq jith ghhoamkqhc/ Chqswkrhc pwkcxasbko aipiabsr ioc sjh ko.ekboeehohwim Iqbio qmkuckuo jith uhilhohc Fipiohqhhzpkwsq/ Sjh qswkoe rho akoswbgxshq sk sjbq chthmkpnhosioc Fipiohqh hzpkwshwq jith qjbdshc pwkcxasbko kxsqbchsjh akxoswr/ Uhil swich uhbejq ko sjh axwwhos iaakxosgimioah ujbaj dhmm sk i whakwc mku bo Fioxiwr/ Imsjkxej-uhilhw cknhqsba qitboeq *iehboe pkpxmisbko" ubmmpkshosbimmr pwkcxah ko kthwimm chdbabs hthosximmr *thwroheisbth dkw FPR ebtho sjh dbqaim kxsmkkl"- sjh qbeobdbaios

    ohs bothqsnhos pkqbsbko is 40(+ECP ubmm mblhmr akosboxhsk pwkcxah io kthwimm qxwpmxq *dwkn bothqsnhos boaknh"dkw sjh sbnh ghboe/ Dmkuq jith sjxq chshwbkwishc gxs

    akxmc gh hzphashc sk gh pkqbsbth bo sbnhq kd qswhqq/ 0

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    FPR Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-:

    (k

    dECP

    (k

    dECP

    97

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    13/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Fipiohqh rhoTIMXISBKO Sjh rho bq kthwtimxhc iaakwcboe sk suk kdkxw sjwhh cbddhwhos nhiqxwhq dkw timxisbko/ Sjh mkoe.shwndibw timxh nkchm *QHGHHW" qsbpxmishq sjis XQC+FPR qjkxmc

    swich is 990/ Sjh chtbisbko dwkn mkoe.shwn ithwiehq imqkwhthimq io boshwhqsboe dhisxwh kd sjh FPR/ Bo oknboim shwnqsjh FPR bq thwr qswhsajhc igkth mkoe.shwn dibw timxh iqbocbaishc gr kxw DZ Qakwhaiwc/ Jkuhthw bo whim shwnq sjhFPR bq amkqh sk sjh mkoe.shwn ithwieh/ Jhoah- sjh FPR bqkomr hzphoqbth bo oknboim shwnq- gxs ujho icfxqshc dkwbodmisbko cbddhwhosbimq sjh kthwtimxisbko aiqh bq mhqq

    ipphimboe/ .3

    PKQBSBKOBOESjh ohs qjkws qphaxmisbth FPR pkqbsbko jiq

    whahosmr ghho hzahqqbthmr qjkws gxs jiq sjh miqs nkosj kwqk akosboxkxqmr ghho okwnimbvhc/ Iq sjh pkqbsbko bq okshzahqqbth ior nkwh sjh ewich bq whmisbthmr mku/ Jkuhthw-

    sjh qhosbnhos skuiwcq FPR bq pkqbsbth ujho fxceboe gr sjhpkqbsbkoim ajioehq silboe pmiah mishmr/0

    SHAJOBAIMQ Sjh GKH FPR bochz bq ko i qjkws.shwn

    ubooboe qswblh- igmh sk whphishcmr nkth bosk i qswhsaj iocsjbq qjkuq qjkws.shwn chnioc ko sjh dkwh/ Ictioah bqimqk qhho piahc igkth i pkqbsbthmr qmkphc 87uhhlNktboe Ithwieh ioc sjbq whochwq i pkqbsbth ewicboe dkwsjh rho/ Gxs i gwkichw uith akxos nir gh piqqhc i philujbaj bq bocbaisboe sjis i miwehw akwwhasbkoim I.G.A bq bosjh nilboe *axwwhosmr bo bsq G.mhe bo mboh ubsj sjh pwbkwswhoc" ioc sjbq jbochw i ghsshw qakwh sjio ujis axwwhosmrbq sjh aiqh/ Ghmku 951 ukxmc aimm dkw i qxg.942 shqs bo i

    qjkws.shwn phwqphasbth/ ,7

    MBYXBCBSR- HTHOS WBQL IOC EMKGIM ARAMH Ghboe iqidh.jitho axwwhoar- mbyxbcbsr bq io bnpkwsios iocpkqbsbth aishekwr dkw sjh Fipiohqh axwwhoar- sjh pkkwdbqaim kxsmkkl ubmm mbnbs sjbq ajiwiashwbqsba kthw sbnh/ Bo sjhaxwwhos sxwgxmhos ioc xoahwsibo sbnh sjh ohhc dkw mbyxbcbsrubmm imqk ukwl iq i giwwbhw sk i nkwh wipbc chpwhabisbko bosjh rho ujbaj sjh dxocinhosimq ioc timxisbko qxppkws/Giol kd Fipio qsiocq whicr sk boshwthoh bo sjh axwwhoar/Ksjhw pkshosbimmr oheisbth qxwpwbqhq iwh dkxoc ubsj sjhawhcbs wisboe iehoabhq qjkxmc sjhr ajkkqh sk mkuhw sjh

    wisboeq dxwsjhw *Q$P ioc Dbsaj axwwhosmr jith i oheisbthkxsmkkl"/ I thwr icthwqh qahoiwbk bo sjh hxwk.vkoh akxmcpkshosbimmr mhic sk miweh ioc diqs bodmkuq ieibo bosk sjhFPR- jhoah bo sjh qjkws.shwn hthos wbqlq dkw sjh axwwhoarbq qlhuhc bo i qnimm pkqbsbth cbwhasbko/ Sjh shochoar kdsjh FPR sk qswhoesjho iq emkgim ewkusj qmkuq dxwsjhwqxppkwsq sjbq gbiq/

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- FPR Bochz

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    7000 7007 7003 7004 700: 7090 7097

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    Shajobaim tbhu6 GKH FPR bochz

    Hddhasbthhzajioehwish*GkHBochz"

    Uhbejshcboshwhqswishqpwhic-

    (

    91

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    14/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Gwbsbqj pkxoc qshwmboeHxwk uhilohqq jiq qxppkwshc sjh EGP kthw sjh miqs rhiw-ujbmh sjh qshwmboe jiq qsirhc dibwmr wioeh gkxoc ieiboqssjh XQC/ Sjbq jiq pxqjhc sjh EGP bosk nkwh ohxswimshwwbskwr akoqbchwboe bsq timxisbko/ Uhil dxocinhosimq

    whmishc sk qmku ewkusj ioc hddkwsq sk axs chdbabsq- sjh wbqlkd dxwsjhw YH dwkn sjh GKH ioc i oheisbth dmku qbsxisbkoiwh mblhmr sk uhbej ko sjh EGP is pwhqhos timxisbko/ SjhKmrnpba Einhq bo Mkocko sjbq qxnnhw nir ehohwish ishnpkwiwr gkkqs sk sjh hakoknr ioc qxppkws sjhaxwwhoar- gxs uh ckxgs sjbq hddhas bq qxqsiboigmh/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ Idshw whpkwsboe i qhakocakoqhaxsbth yxiwshw ubsj dimmboe ECP sjh XL hakoknr bqgial bo bsq qhakoc whahqqbko qboah 700:/ Imsjkxej sjhECP hqsbnish nir gh qxgfhas sk xpuiwc whtbqbkoq sjhewkusj oxnghw amhiwmr whdmhasq sjh uhilohqq kd sjhGwbsbqj hakoknr iq jkxqhjkmcq qswxeemh ubsj i jxeh chgsgxwcho inbc dimmboe jkxqh pwbahq- jbej xohnpmkrnhosioc dimmboe whim uiehq/ Qboah 7099 sjh ekthwonhos jiqpxqjhc sjwkxej tiwbkxq nhiqxwhq boamxcboe jbejhw sizhqsk whcxah sjh pxgmba chdbabsq- ujbaj axwwhosmr silhq sjh skmmkd cknhqsba chnioc/ Qbnxmsiohkxqmr chnioc bq uhil kolhr hzpkws niwlhsq bo Hxwkph ubsj qhthwim hakoknbhq bowhahqqbko/ Qk diw sjhwh bq thwr mbssmh bocbaisboe io bnnbohoswhakthwr bo XL- imsjkxej sjhwh iwh qknh pkqbsbth qbeoq iqPNB6q fxqs igkth 80/ Ohthwsjhmhqq- ewkusj bq mblhmr sk

    whnibo uhil dkw qhthwim yxiwshwq sk aknh/ .9

    NKOHSIWR PKMBARDimmboe wipbcmr dwkn igkth 8( bo sjh

    sjbwc yxiwshw 7099- bodmisbko jiq whahosmr ipphiwhc qsbalbhwsjio ujis uh ioc sjh GKH hzphashc fxqs i dhu nkosjqiek/ Bo bsq Nir BW sjh GKH whtbqhc bsq bodmisbko dkwhaiqsioc APB.bodmisbko bq oku hzphashc sk qsir igkth sjhsiwehs dkw nkwh sjio i rhiw- ujbaj nhioq bodmisbko jiqghho igkth sjh siwehs dkw 3 rhiwq/ Inbc chmhthwieboe bosjh pwbtish qhaskw gwkic nkohr ewkusj jiq whnibohcoheisbth dkw nkwh sjio i rhiw chqpbsh iccbsbkoim gkocpxwajiqhq gr sjh GKH ubsj sjh siwehs dkw sjh pwkewinaxwwhosmr ghboe jhmc is 178go/ Ubsj dimmboe nkohr qxppmrioc io hakoknr gial bo whahqqbko koh qjkxmc okwnimmrhzphas sjh ahoswim giol sk qxppkws sjh hakoknr gr

    dxwsjhw nkohsiwr pkmbar hzpioqbko/ Sjis nir hthosximmrgh sjh aiqh dkw sjh GKH iq uhmm gxs nkqs mblhmr uh ohhc skqhh bodmisbko dimmboe ghmku sjh GKH dkwhaiqs sk swbeehw

    dxwsjhw YH dwkn sjh GKH/ .9

    DMKUQ Phwqbqshos swich ioc axwwhos iaakxos chdbabsq

    akngbohc ubsj pkwsdkmbk kxsdmkuq akosboxh sk pibos i thwrgmhil dmku qbsxisbko dkw sjh EGP/ Chqpbsh rhiwq kd pkkwcknhqsba ewkusj ioc i uhil axwwhoar sjh XL hakoknrjiq oks nioiehc sk whgimioah iuir dwkn sjh hzshwoimchdbabsq iq chnioc bo lhr hzpkws niwlhsq whniboq fxqs iquhil iq cknhqsba chnioc/ Dxwsjhwnkwh- pkkwpwkcxasbtbsr ewkusj jiq hddhasbthmr whcxahc sjh XL

    aknphsbsbthohqq bo emkgim niwlhsq ujbaj nilhq bs hthonkwh cbddbaxms sk kgsibo sjh qswxasxwim qjbds/ Akoqbchwboehzshwoim bngimioahq sjh XL hakoknr qjkxmc qsir ubsj iuhil axwwhoar sk qxppkws sjh ohahqqiwr whgimioaboe kd

    sjh hakoknr/ .9

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    EGP Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-3

    (k

    dECP

    (k

    dECP

    93

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    15/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Gwbsbqj pkxoc qshwmboeTIMXISBKO Idshw i qbeobdbaios chpwhabisbko bo 7005+0:pxqjboe sjh EGP skuiwcq amhiwmr xochwtimxhc mhthmq iakngboisbko kd dimmboe mkoe.shwn dibw timxh ioc i whgkxoc

    bo sjh oknboim EGP.bochz jith nkthc sjh EGP skuiwcqbsq hqsbnishc mkoe.shwn dibw timxh/ Jhoah- axwwhosmr sjhEGP bq whiqkoigmr timxhc iaakwcboe sk QHGHHW/ Sjbq imqkdbs dibwmr uhmm ubsj ksjhw nhiqxwhq kd timxisbko iq sjhchtbisbko dwkn i mkoe.shwn ithwieh bo oknboim kw whimswich uhbejshc bocbahq bocbaisboe sjh EGP bq whiqkoigmr

    timxhc ieiboqs bsq swicboe piwsohwq/ ,9

    PKQBSBKOBOE Sjh ohs mkoe qphaxmisbth EGP pkqbsbko bq

    amkqh sk ghboe sjh mkoehqs qhho bo i rhiw/ Sjh hzahqqbthpkqbsbko jiq imwhicr ghexo sk gh okwnimbvhc/ Sjh ewich bqoheisbth iq sjh okwnim pisshwo bq dkw qxaj i okwnimbvisbko

    sk akosboxh ioc sjxq pxs pwhqqxwh ko sjh EGP/ .8

    SHAJOBAIMQ Sjh GKH EGP bochz jiq icnbsshcmr ghho

    immkuhc sk iaahmhwish dxwsjhw ioc diqs sjio ujis uiqpwhtbkxqmr hzphashc *ubsjbo i mkoe.shwn ghiwbqjqswxasxwh"/ Sjh nkth igkth hiwmbhw skpq is :7/10 $ :1/90jiq aioahmmhc i ghiwbqj swbioemh aiqh ioc jiq kphohcdkw iccbsbkoim eiboq qjkxmc sjh 7002 jbej kd :3/50 dibm skisswias niqqbth qhmmboe/ Sjh nkth jbejhw bq imwhicr qjkws.$ nhcbxn.shwn qswhsajhc *ujbaj xweh dkw aixsbko ko mishmkoeq"- gxs bs bq imqk uhmm piahc uir igkth i gxmmbqjqmkpboe 87 uhhl nktboe ithwieh/ Sjbq jkmcq pwkfhasbkopkbosq is :5/:0 kw htho iq jbej iq :2/40 ko sjh wiciw ismhiqs iq mkoe iq oks gwhilboe gial ghmku sjkqh whahosmr

    tbkmishc pwbkw skpq is :1/90+:7/10/ ,7

    HTHOS WBQL- MBYXBCBSR IOC EMKGIM ARAMH

    Swicbsbkoimmr sjh qshwmboe ipphiwq sk gh imnkqsxoakwwhmishc ubsj ajioehq bo emkgim wbql qhosbnhos ioc qkjiq ghho sjh aiqh kthw sjh miqs nkosjq iq uhmm/ Boiccbsbko ubsj bsq miweh dboioabim niwlhsq sjh EGP ghmkoeqinkoe sjh nkqs mbyxbc axwwhoabhq bo sjh ukwmc ioc iqqxaj shocq sk gh imnkqs xoiddhashc ujho dboioabimniwlhsq iwh isswiashc gr mbyxbcbsr/ Jhoah- qakwhq whmishcsk hthos wbql- sjh gxqbohqq aramh ioc mbyxbcbsr iwh kthwimmohxswim dkw sjh EGP/

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

    0

    78

    80

    5890 0

    97 8

    9/980

    9/700

    9/780

    9/100

    9/180

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    HXW+XQC

    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- EGP Bochz

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    700 0 7007 7003 7 004 700: 7 090 70 97

    40

    50

    :0

    20

    900

    990

    970

    910

    930

    EGP qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    Dhg

    99

    Nir Ixe Okt

    97

    Dhg Nir

    .50

    .80

    .10

    .90

    90

    10

    80

    9/878

    9/880

    9/858

    9/400

    9/478

    9/480

    9/458

    Qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoqEGP+XQCQphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoqEGP+XQC

    Shajobaim tbhu6 GKH EGP bochz

    Bochz

    Phwahos

    98

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    16/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Aioicbio ckmmiwGr imm kxw nhiqxwhq sjh Aioicbio ckmmiw ipphiwqkthwtimxhc ioc timxisbko pwkgigmr pkqsq sjh gbeehqsmkoe.shwn sjwhis ieiboqs sjh axwwhoar/ Jkuhthw- ghboekoh kd komr i dhu E90.hakoknbhq ubsj iaahpsigmh

    dxocinhosimq iq dbwn ewkusj kxsmkkl- i dibwmr qnimm pxgmbachdbabs ioc chnioc dwkn jkxqhjkmcq sjh jbej timxisbkonir pkqh i mbnbshc sjwhis sk sjh axwwhoar ohiw shwn iqpkwsdkmbk bodmkuq iwh mblhmr sk akosboxh/ Qjkxmc sjh GKAwhnibo ubsj bsq jiulbqj qsioah ioc hthosximmr qsiws skjblh wishq- sjbq ukxmc dxwsjhw qxppkws sjh axwwhoar/Jkuhthw- i pwhakocbsbko bq pwkgigmr i qsigbmbqisbko bo sjhHxwk iwhi- ujbaj imqk ukxmc qxppkws wbql ipphsbsh/ Jhoah-bo i nkwh ghobeo emkgim qahoiwbk sjh XQC+AIC qjkxmcnkth mkuhw/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ Bo Y3 jkxqhjkmc chniocqxwpwbqhc iq sjh nkqs pkqbsbth akoswbgxskw sk Aioicbioewkusj/ Ubsj bsq amkqh mbolq sk sjh XQ hakoknr sjhwhakthwr bo XQ akoswbgxshq pkqbsbthmr imsjkxej qmkupwkcxasbtbsr ewkusj ioc i dibwmr qswkoe axwwhoar iwhoheisbth dkw sjh oisbkoq aknphsbsbthohqq/ Sjh cknhqsbachnioc jiq ghho qxppkwshc gr dimmboe xohnpmkrnhos bowhahos nkosjq- ubsj xohnpmkrnhos axwwhosmr is sjhmkuhqs mhthmq qboah sjh dboioabim awbqbq bo 700:/ Iq iakoqhyxhoah sjh oxnghw kd phkpmh hnpmkrhc bq uhmmigkth pwh.awbqbq mhthmq/ Whqbchosbim nkwseieh awhcbsewkusj qjku thwr dhu qbeoq kd qmkuboe- axwwhosmr ewkuboegr nkwh sjio 5( iooximmr/ Gxqbohqq qxwthrq qjku iqmbejsmr nbzhc pbasxwh gxs bocbaishq sjis gxqbohqq

    qhosbnhos whniboq igkth sjh jbqskwbaim ithwieh ujbmhbothqsnhos boshosbkoq bocbaishq akosboxhc aipbsim

    qphocboe/,9

    NKOHSIWR PKMBAR GKA jiq whnibohc ko jkmc qboah

    Qhp/ 7090 lhhpboe sjh pkmbar wish is 9( sk qxppkwshakoknba ewkusj ioc pwhthos sjh axwwhoar dwkn ehssboeskk qswkoe/ Bo bsq mishqs NPW sjh GKA pwkfhashc jhicmbohbodmisbko sk qmku skuiwcq sjh 7( siwehs cxwboe 7097/ Kosjh ksjhw jioc sjh giol bq ukwwbhc igkxs qswkoe awhcbshzpioqbko ioc is bsq Ipwbm nhhsboe sjh giol qxwpwbqhc gr ijiulbqj skoh bo bsq qsishnhos bocbaisboe sjh giol wishnbejs iasximmr gh wibqhc imwhicr sjbq rhiw/ Qboah sjhnhhsboe niwlhs pwbaboe bocbaishq i pkqbsbth pwkgigbmbsr dkwjbejhw wishq ioc uh ukxmc oks hzamxch jblhq imwhicr sjbqrhiw xomhqq sjh Hxwk.vkoh awbqbq jxwsq emkgim ewkusj/

    ,9

    DMKUQ Uhil aknphsbsbthohqq akosboxhq sk ehohwishswich chdbabsq imsjkxej sjh axwwhos iaakxos jiq bnpwkthcdkw sjwhh akoqhaxsbth yxiwshwq sk mhqq sjio 7/8( kd ECPbo Y3 7099/ Ohthwsjhmhqq sjh ohhc sk isswias dkwhbeopkwsdkmbk bodmkuq whniboq ioc qk diw pkwsdkmbk bodmkuqwhmishc sk hyxbsbhq ioc gkocq jith nkwh sjio dxmmraknphoqishc dkw sjh axwwhos iaakxos chdbabsq/ Aioiciq

    dibwmr qswkoe dxocinhosimq ubmm pwkgigmr akosboxh skisswias dkwhbeo pkwsdkmbk bodmkuq sk akthw sjh axwwhos

    iaakxos chdbabsq/,9

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

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    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

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    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

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    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

    Dxocinhosimq

    AIC Uhbejshc qakwh6 .0-1

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  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

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    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Aioicbio ckmmiwTIMXISBKOBo swich uhbejshc shwnq sjh Aioicbio ckmmiwipphiwq qxgqsiosbimmr kthwtimxhc dwkn i mkoe.shwnphwqphasbth/ Kxw boshwoim mkoe.shwn dibw timxh nkchm

    bocbaishq sjh AIC axwwhosmr bq 98.70( kthwtimxhc ieiboqsbsq swich uhbejshc bochz ioc sjh GBQ whim hddhasbthhzajioeh wish pkbosq bo sjh qinh cbwhasbko whmisbth bsqjbqskwbaim ithwieh/ Sjh timxisbko qakwh bq axwwhosmr sjhnkqs oheisbth dkw sjh Aioicbio ckmmiw ioc mkoe.shwn sjh

    timxisbko ubmm uhbej ko sjh AIC/ .7

    PKQBSBKOBOE Sjh ohs mkoe qphaxmisbth AIC pkqbsbkojiq whahosmr qsiwshc sk dimm dwkn io hzahqqbthmr mkoe mhthm/Sjwhh uhhlq iek bs uiq sjh mkoehqs qhho bo sjh miqs 87uhhlq gxs bs jiq qboah sjho aknh ckuo sk ghboe sjh 1wcmkoehqs/ Sjh ewich whdmhasq sjis sjbq okwnimbvisbko kd sjh

    hzahqq pkqbsbko kxejs sk akosboxh/ .8

    SHAJOBAIMQSjh GKH AIC bochz jkmcq i pkqqbgbmbsr kd idxmm :( mkqq bo i nhcbxn.shwn phwqphasbth ghaixqh bd sjhqxeehqshc uith qswxasxwh piohq kxs iq sjkxejs iakwwhasbkoim G *kw 7" uith jbej bq bo pmiah- iwexboe dkw iohyxim mkqq sk ujis uiq boaxwwhc gial bo 7099 sk xodkmcieibo- bchimmr siwehsboe sjh nbc.907q qknhsjboejbejmbejshc gr miqs uhhlq oksigmr ghiwbqj amkqh ghmku sjh87uhhl Nktboe Ithwieh/ Io imshwoisbth ioc mhqq ghiwbqjkgfhasbth ck hzbqs iwkxoc sjh 7090+7099 904/30+908/:0

    mkuq/ .3

    HTHOS WBQL- MBYXBCBSR IOC EMKGIM ARAMH

    Jbqskwbaimmr sjh Aioicbio ckmmiw jiq shochc sk akwwhmishpkqbsbthmr ubsj wbql ipphsbsh ioc sjh phwdkwnioah bo sjhXQ hyxbsr niwlhs- qswhoesjhoboe iq wbql ipphsbshbnpwkthq/ Jkuhthw- sjbq amiqqbaim akwwhmisbko jiqipphiwhc mhqq amhiw bo sjh dbwqs yxiwshw sjbq rhiw- imsjkxejbo whahos uhhlq bq qhhnq sk jith boawhiqhc ieibo ioc sjhAioicbio ckmmiw qjkxmc sjhwhdkwh akosboxh sk xochwphwdkwn iq mkoe iq wbql ipphsbsh chshwbkwishq/ Dkw kxwnhcbxn shwn dkwhaiqs jkwbvko uh hzphas wbql ipphsbsh skbnpwkth bo sjh qhakoc jimd kd 7097 ujbaj ubmm gh pkqbsbthdkw sjh AIC/ Ghboe koh kd sjh qnimmhw axwwhoabhq inkoesjh E90 axwwhoabhq sjh mkkobh bq qsbmm mbyxbc hokxej sk oks

    gh qhthwhmr pxobqjhc iq bothqskwq qaimh gial kohzpkqxwhq bo sbnhq kd boawhiqhc qswhqq bo dboioabimniwlhsq/ Is sjh nknhos sjhwh iwh ok axwwhoar qphabdbawbqlq whmishc sk sjh Aioicbio ckmmiw/

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

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    78

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    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- AIC Bochz

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    900990

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    95

  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    18/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Ixqswimbio ckmmiwIxqswimbi jiq dkw qhthwim rhiwq ghohdbshc dwkn qswkoechnioc ko aknnkcbsbhq ioc jbej aknnkcbsr pwbahq-ujbaj jiq ghho sjh nibo cwbthw kd Ixqswimbio ewkusj ioc

    jiq uiwwioshc io kthwtimxhc axwwhoar/ Qjkxmc jkuhthwaknnkcbsr pwbahq gh mhqq qxppkwshc ioc chnioc dwknIqbi qmku- ewkusj bo Ixqswimbi ubmm gh nkwh amkqhmr whmishcsk cknhqsba chnioc ioc nioxdiasxwboe hzpkwsq- ujbajajioehq sjbq qbsxisbko/ Whahos axsq gr sjh ahoswim gioljith imqk whcxahc sjh miweh boshwhqs wish eip ieiboqsksjhw axwwhoabhq- ujbaj dxwsjhw whcxah sjh qxppkws dkw sjhaxwwhoar/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ Qxppkwshc gr qswkoechnioc dkw aknnkcbsbhq sjh gkkn bo sjh Ixqswimbiowhqkxwahq qhaskw jiq qhwthc iq sjh hoeboh dkw ewkusj/Aipbsim qphocboe akosboxhq sk ewku wipbcmr ioc

    bothqsnhos boshosbkoq whnibo is whakwc jbej mhthmqbocbaisboe ewkusj bq mblhmr sk akosboxh/ Bo Y3 miqs rhiwbothqsnhosq ewhu gr iwkxoc 70( dwkn sjh pwhtbkxq rhiw/Qswkoe chnioc dkw aknnkcbsbhq jiq gkkqshc oisbkoimboaknh/ Sjh hakoknr jkuhthw whniboq cbtbchc ubsjqhaskwq kxsqbch sjh whakxwqhq qhaskw diaboe nkwhajimmhoeboe akocbsbkoq ubsj i qswkoe axwwhoar iocaixsbkxq jkxqhjkmcq sjis pwhdhw sk qith wisjhw sjioqphoc/ Jkxqhjkmc qhosbnhos bq ghmku bsq jbqskwbaimithwieh iq jkxqh pwbahq qjku qbeoq kd chamboboe iocmigkxw niwlhs akocbsbkoq iwh xoahwsibo/ Sjh qbsxisbkonir jkuhthw ghaknh nkwh chniocboe bd emkgim ewkusj

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    kxsmkkl/,7

    NKOHSIWR PKMBAR Dkmmkuboe suk axsq mish miqs rhiw

    sjh WGI chabchc sk axs sjh aiqj wish gr 80 gpq sk 1/58(bo Nir/ Sjh chabqbko sk axs wishq uiq whmishc sk uhilhwchnioc akocbsbkoq cknhqsbaimmr ioc dwkn igwkic ioc iqjiwp cwkp bo bodmisbko sk 9/4( bo Y9 ioc xochwmrboebodmisbko amkqh sk sjh 7( siwehs/ Ubsj ghobeo bodmisbkosjhwh qhhnq sk gh wkkn dkw dxwsjhw axsq ioc sjh niwlhsaxwwhosmr pwbahq ioksjhw 0/58( axs bo sjh aiqj wish/ Cxh

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    ictiosieh/,9

    DMKUQ Whakwc jbej shwnq.kd.swich ioc qswkoeaknnkcbsr chnioc jith ehohwishc swich qxwpmxqhq iocisswiashc DCB bodmkuq ujbmh qswkoe dxocinhosimq isswiasqgkoc.bodmkuq/ Bo akoswiqs whsxwo ko dkwhbeo bothqsnhosqakosboxhq sk ehohwish akoqbchwigmh oheisbth kxsdmkuqghboe sjh nibo whiqko dkw sjh axwwhos iaakxos chdbabsq/ Qkdiw sjh swich qxwpmxq ioc ohs pkwsdkmbk bodmkuq jith ghhomiweh hokxej sk ehohwish i IXC qxppkwsbth dmku qbsxisbko

    gxs nir gh mhqq qk bd swichq uhilhoq/,9

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

    .7 8

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    78

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    Sjh mial kd qbeobdbaios xpqbch pwkewhqq boHXW+XQC nilhq sjh axwwhos qxgqsiosbim ohsmkoe qphaxmisbth pkqbsbko i gxwcho/ Qjkxmcsjh qxg.9/72.iwhi gh whtbqbshc- qphaxmisbthmkoeq ubmm jith sk gh whcxahc/

    .0-: .0-4 .0-3 .0-7 0-0 0-7 0-3 0-4 0-:

    Emkgim aramh

    Hthos wbql

    Mbyxbcbsr

    Shajobaimq

    Pkqbsbkoboe

    Timxisbko

    Dmkuq

    Nkohsiwr pkmbar

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    IXC Uhbejshc qakwh6 0-1

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  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    19/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Ixqswimbio ckmmiwTIMXISBKO Ghboe koh kd dhu axwwhoabhq iasximmr

    kddhwboe i pkqbsbth aiwwr sjh ixqqbh jiq isswiashc miwehaipbsim bodmkuq bo sjh koekboe pwkahqq kd whgimioaboe kxs

    kd dxocinhosimmr uhil axwwhoabhq/ Bo iccbsbko jbejaknnkcbsr pwbahq jith isswiashc dkwhbeo bothqsnhosbodmkuq/ Imskehsjhw sjbq pxqjhc sjh IXC sk i qswhsajhctimxisbko/ Jkuhthw- mishmr boawhiqhc xoahwsibosbhq whmishcsk sjh Hxwk.vkoh chgs awbqbq ioc sk ewkusj bo Ajboi jithdkwahc sjh WGI sk axs wishq- uhbejboe ko sjh timxh kd sjhaxwwhoar bo piqs uhhlq/ Imsjkxej sjh IXC bq diw dwknxochwtimxhc skcir- timxisbko qhhnq sk gh mhqq kd io

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    pkqbsbko jiq ghho gxbmc xp dwkn sjh mishqs mku kaaxwwboeidshw sjh dimm bo wbql ipphsbsh bo hiwmr dimm 7099/ Gxs iq sjhpkqbsbko akwwhmishq jbejmr ubsj wbql ipphsbsh bs jiq sxngmhcbo pwhtbkxq uhhlq/ IXC+XQC jiq swialhc sjh ohs pkqbsbkoyxbsh amhiwmr ioc sjh axwwhos pkqbsbkoboe *ujbaj jiq qhhoi nkwh wipbc dimm sjio bo 7099" whdmhasq io IXC+XQCswicboe is 0/28/ Jkuhthw- sjh axwwhos pkqbsbko bq hzswhnhioc i whdmhasbko kd sjh qhthwh xoahwsibosr uh jith wbejsoku/ Bo aiqh kd i okwnimbqisbko sjh ohs mkoe IXC pkqbsbkobq mblhmr sk boawhiqh ieibo/ Qxaj okwnimbqisbko kd sjhhzswhnh pkqbsbkoboe ukxmc ebth qxppkws sk sjh IXC ioc

    sjxq sjh ewich bq thwr pkqbsbth dkw IXC/ ,8

    SHAJOBAIMQ Sjh GKH IXC bochz jiq pbalhc xp qjkwsioc nhcbxn shwn ckuoqbch nknhosxn ioc i dibw siwehsbo i qjkwshw phwqphasbth aknhq ubsj sjh Y103 mku ohiwsjh 900.jiocmh *gxs oks wxmboe kxs iccbsbkoim mkqqhq"-dkmmkuboe tbkmisbko ghmku io iqahocboe 700:+7099swhocmboh/ Sjh 87uhhl Nktboe Ithwieh jiq whahosmrickpshc i oheisbth qmkph ujbaj imqk jbejmbejsq sjhIxqqbhq nhcbxn.shwn pwhcbainhosq/ I mhqq hzphashcnkth gial igkth 90:/80 ukxmc whcxah ckuoqbch wbqlq/

    .3

    HTHOS WBQL- MBYXBCBSR IOC EMKGIM ARAMH Ubsj bsq

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    Axwwhosmr sjhwh bq ok nifkw hthos wbql whmishc sk sjh IXCqphabdbaimmr/

    HXW qphaxmisbth pkqbsbkoq

    03 08 04 05

    Akoswiasq*sjkxqiocq"

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    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- EGP Bochz

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    Q$P800Bochz

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  • 7/31/2019 SEB report: New FX Scorecard sees Swedish currency strengthening

    20/44

    Axwwhoar Qswisher

    Ohu Vhimioc ckmmiwSjh Hxwkphio chgs qbsxisbko- i Ajbohqh qmkuckuo-uhilhw Ixqswimbio cisi- dimmboe aknnkcbsr pwbahq ioc iqswkoe axwwhoar iwh imm jhicubocq dkw sjh OV hakoknr

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    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ Xosbm whahosmr sjhcknhqsba hakoknr jiq jhmc xp wisjhw uhmm ubsj ewkusjbnphsxq aknboe dwkn io bnpwktboe jkxqboe niwlhs iocsjh whakoqswxasbko idshw sjh Aioshwgxwr hiwsjyxilh/ Kosjh ksjhw jioc i qxgcxhc emkgim kxsmkkl ioc dimmboe cibwrpwbahq bo piwsbaxmiw iwh akoahwoq/ Nkwhkthw- sjh Ipwbm

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    03 08 04 05

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    QHGHHW Dibw timxh- OVC Bochz

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    QOG ubmm akosboxh sk chdhoc sjh nbobnxn hzajioeh wishkd sjh AJD ieiboqs sjh hxwk is 9/70/ Mishqs xpuiwcwhtbqhc ewkusj pwkfhasbkoq qxeehqs sjis sjhwh bq ok ohhcsk wibqh sjbq dmkkw/

    HAKOKNBA DXOCINHOSIMQ Sjh LKD hakoknbagiwknhshw- sjh nkqs bnpkwsios mhicboe bocbaiskw jiqqjkuo i whniwligmh sxwo i wkxoc bo piqs dkxw nkosjq/Sjh whicboe kd 0/30 bo Ipwbm pkbosq sk io hzpiocboehakoknba iasbtbsr bo aknboe nkosjq/ Iaakwcboe sk BNDpwkfhasbkoq- sjh hakoknr ubmm ewku gr 0/:( ioc 9/5( bo7097 whqp/ 7091/ Bodmisbko bq dkwhaiqshc ubsj .0/8( ioc,0/8( bo sjh dkwhaiqs phwbkc/ Sjh kxsmkkl qxeehqsq sjis

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