seb’s oil market report: crude oil market oversupply to increase

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  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    1/12

    Mil Enrbdq _dsmrqFrtad mil enrbdq mpdrvtssly qm ijfrdnvd tjldvv

    naktvqedjqv mr `trqhdr aivrtsqimjv mfftr

    9 KNJTN_Y ?3>6

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    2/12

    ?

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Frtad mil enrbdq

    Ordjq frtad odgnj qhd ydnr vhnrsly highdr nq nrmtja!>>6-o mj qhd `irvq any m` qrnaijg, `mllmwijg nq ldnvqsnrqinl TV Fmjgrdvvimjnl ngrddedjq npdrqijg qhd

    etfh `dnrda `ivfnl fli``* Ordjq frtad hnv oddjijfrdnvijg vqdnaily vijfd dnrly Adfdeodr onvda mjwiadvsrdna vtssmrq `rme rivijg d~tiqy enrbdqv nja`trqhdr SEI iesrmpdedjqv* @trqhdr, mjd ydnr Ordjqfrtad mil onfbwnranqimj hnv nlvm vqrdjgqhdjda,nssrdfinqijg qm 7*4$ `rme nrmtja 4$ mpdr qhd vnedsdrima, n shdjmedjmj m`qdj vigjnllijg njijfrdnvijgly qighq shyvifnl enrbdq* Hmwdpdr, qhdrdnrd jm mopimtv vigjv ydq qhnq qhiv will mfftr* Trnlvdxsmrqv vqnrqda ?3>6 vqrmjgly whild Jmrqh Vdn O@MDlmnaijgv nrd srmkdfqda qm ijfrdnvd oy mpdr >33 bo-aoy dnrly @dortnry* Ednjwhild, N`rifnj Wdvq Fmnvqfrtad vhisedjqv `mr @dortnry hnpd rdenijda tjvmla

    whild Not Ahnoi hnv rdatfda `mretln srifdv qmdjvtrd vnldv m` iqv mwj frtad vhisedjqv* Jmrenllyshyvifnl adenja adfrdnvdv oy 3*4 eillimj onrrdlv nv^> srmgrdvvdv nja oy n `trqhdr 3*4 eillimj ij ^?*Fmjvd~tdjqly, tjadr jmrenl fmjaiqimjv n shyvifnllyqighqdr enrbdq wmtla od tjlibdly atrijg qhd jdxq vixemjqhv*

    Ij ?3>?, MSDF rdsmrqda npdrngd srmatfqimj m` 6>*4 eo-afmesnrda wiqh adenja m` nrmtja 63 eo-a* Nlqhmtghglmonl mil adenja iv `mrdfnvq qm ijfrdnvd oy 3*8 eo-a qmnj npdrngd m` 93*4 eo-a (IDN) qhiv ydnr, wd dxsdfq lmwdr

    adenja `mr MSDF mil atd qm ijfrdnvijg jmj%MSDF milmtqstq nja grmwijg MSDF srmatfqimj m` JGLv ("633bo-a)* Lnvq ydnr, MSDF mpdrsrmatfqimj wnv jdfdvvnry qmrdotila glmonl mil vqmfbv n`qdr Lioynj mil nfqipiqy fdnvda ij?3>>* Hmwdpdr, qhiv ydnr MSDF etvq fldnrly adfrdnvdmtqstq qm npmia n vtovqnjqinl rivd ij glmonl mil vqmfbv* Atdqm vdnvmjnl wdnbjdvv MSDF mpdrsrmatfqimj will odgrdnqdvq ij H>%>6, rd~tirijg Vntai Nrnoin qm rdvsmjaadfivipdly* Whild iq odgnj ftqqijg mtqstq ij Adfdeodr,`trqhdr rdatfqimjv nrd jddada*

    M` fmtrvd, Eiaald Dnvq qdjvimjv will rdenij n wila fnra ij?3>6, nv qhdy hnpd `mr vdpdrnl ydnrv* Qhd Irnjinj jtfldnrviqtnqimj iv oy jm ednjv rdvmlpda wiqh vnjfqimjvdxsdfqda qm ijqdjvi`y ij @dortnry* Ftrrdjqly, Irnj vt``drv`rme n li~tiaiqy vhmrqngd, napdrvdly n``dfqijgenijqdjnjfd nja mil srmatfqimj ijpdvqedjqv* Ij naaiqimj,vijfd lnvq emjqh, srmoldev hnpd dvfnlnqda ij Irn~, qhdvdfmja lnrgdvq MSDF srmatfdr, wiqh ijfrdnvijg qdjvimjodqwddj qhd fmtjqryv Vtjji Etvlie eijmriqy (whifhvtssmrqv Vyrinj mssmviqimj qm qhd gmpdrjedjq m`Srdviadjq Nvvna) nja iqv rtlijg Vhin Etvlie enkmriqy(whifh vtssmrqv omqh qhd Vyrinj Srdviadjq nja qhdftrrdjq Irnjinj rdgied)* Fldnrly, qhdrd iv n rivb qhnq nfmjqijtda wmrvdjijg m` qhd viqtnqimj ij Vyrin eny

    napdrvdly n``dfq Irn~i vqnoiliqy ij ?3>6*

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    (bo-a)IDN 89*7 "73 93*4 ">>3DIN 89*>7 ">63 93*>> ">>3

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    (!-o) ^> ^? ^6 ^1 @tllYdnr

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  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    3/12

    6

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Frtad mil

    (JYEDX-IFD, !-o, rmjq emjqh, wddbly flmvijg) (JYEDX-IFD, $, anily flmvijg, :3; fmjqnjgm, 33>34>>3>>4>?3>?4>63

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    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    4/12

    1

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Frtad mil

    (AMD, eo, wddbly anqn) (eo, emjqhly anqn)

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    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

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    4 ydnr rnjgd, qms

    4 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme

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    (eo, emjqhly anqn) (eo, emjqhly anqn)

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    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, IDN, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

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    4

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Dtrmsdnj mil srmatfq enrbdqv

    @mllmwijg n vtovqnjqinl adqdrimrnqimj ij ^1%>?,Dtrmsdnj rd`ijdry dfmjmeifv hnpd odgtj qhd JdwYdnr nq qhd vned adsrdvvda ldpdlv smvqda >? emjqhv

    ngm, nv srdpnilda od`mrd Nqlnjqif onvij srmatfqenrbdqv odgnj qm qighqdj n`qdr dxfdvvipd njamovmldqd fnsnfiqy wnv vhtq amwj* Srmatfq vtsslyfmjfdrjv nja frnfbv sdnbda atrijg qhd rdfdjq srd%wijqdr enijqdjnjfd vdnvmj otq hnpd jmw dnvdan`qdr Nvinj nja Dtrmsdnj rd`ijdridv rdqtrjda qm srd%enijqdjnjfd nfqipiqy ldpdlv* Vqill, TV mtqngdv rdenijnompd jmrenl* Wiqh eiaald aivqillnqd frnfbv hnpijgnlrdnay `nlldj onfb vtovqnjqinlly nja `mrdfnvqdrvsrdaifqijg lmwdr Dtrmsdnj qdesdrnqtrdv nhdna,frnfbv lmmb libdly qm nq ldnvq vqnoili{d gmijg `mrwnra*Vijfd gnvmlijd nja `tdl mil frnfbv nlrdnay lmw,rd`ijdry dfmjmeifv will srmonoly omqqme ij >%>6*

    Lighq djav; Ftrrdjqly, qhd jnshqhn frnfb iv qhd emvqptljdrnold snrq m` qhd onrrdl n`qdr jnshqhn vtaadjly lmvqiqv rdlnqipd srifd napnjqngd qm srmsnjd* Hmwdpdr,nroiqrngd fnrgmdv ldnpijg Dtrmsd, qighqdr ijpdjqmridv njavqill hdnlqhy sdqrmfhdeifnl ijatvqry adenja hnpd vm `nrlieiqda qhd adfrdnvd* Qhmtgh Dtrmsdnj gnvmlijdijpdjqmridv nrd vlighqly odlmw jmrenl, TV ijpdjqmridv nrdnq smvq eia%>993v highv* Jdpdrqhdldvv, wiqh adenja `mrDtrmsdnj gnvmlijd `rme mqhdr rdgimjv ijfltaijg WdvqN`rifn rdenijijg vqrmjg, dxsmrq `lmwv fmjqijtd qmvtssmrq qhd enrbdq* Wd vqill vdd liqqld amwjviad ij qhd

    gnvmlijd frnfb `rme iqv ftrrdjq ldpdl*

    Eiaald aivqillnqdv; Eiaald aivqillnqd frnfbv nrd jmwvhmwijg vigjv m` vqnoili{ijg n`qdr fmrrdfqijg lmwdr`mllmwijg n rdfmpdry ij rd`ijdry srmatfqimj ij ^1%>?*Ijpdjqmridv nrd vqill lmw, snrqiftlnrly `mr kdq `tdl nv rd`ijdrvhnpd `npmtrda aidvdl srmatfqimj tjqil `nirly rdfdjqly* Omqhenrbdqv nrd vhmwijg vigjv wdnb adenja, nlqhmtghrdlnqipdly vqrmjgdr adenja `mr kdq `tdl ij Nvin (nv pdry lmwqdesdrnqtrdv djfmtrngd rd`ijdrv qm `npmtr bdrmvdjdsrmatfqimj) iv ftrrdjqly aipdrqijg Eiaald Dnvqdrj onrrdlvdnvqwnra rnqhdr qhnj qm Dtrmsd* Nv n rdvtlq, qhd Dtrmsdnj

    aidvdl pv* gnvmil srdeite hnv `nlldj onfb, nja srmonolyomqqmeda, whild iqv kdq `tdl fmtjqdrsnrq rdenijv high* TVaivqillnqd ijpdjqmridv nrd vqill pdry lmw otq hnpd oddjqrdjaijg onfb qmwnrav qhdir `ipd ydnr npdrngd vijfd qhdvdfmja hnl` m` ^1%>?*

    Hdnpy djav; Qhd rnfd qm vtssly qighq eiaald aivqillnqdenrbdqv ij lnqd ?3>? nlvm `lmmada `tdl mil enrbdqv,ldnpijg Dtrmsdnj ijpdjqmridv sldjqi`tl nja frnfbvadsrdvvda wiqh liqqld `trqhdr amwjviad rdenijijg* OmqhDtrmsdnj nja Nvinj enrbdqv odgnj qhd ydnr vlighqlyvqrmjgdr, smvvioly atd qm rdvqmfbijg nhdna m` qhdFhijdvd Jdw Ydnr (@dortnry >3)* Ai``iftlq vhissijg

    fmjaiqimjv nv n rdvtlq m` ifd fmtla anesdj Nvinj adenjavlighqly* HV nja LV frnfbv hnpd iesrmpda ij qnjade,ldnpijg qhd high%lmw vsrdna lnrgdly tjfhnjgda*

    (!-q, anily flmvijg)

    043

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    (!-q, anily flmvijg)

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    Kdq tdl

    Aidvdl >3 sse

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    (!-q, anily flmvijg)

    174

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    High vtlshtr tdl mil (6*4$)

    Lmw vtlshtr tdl mil (>*3$)

    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    6/12

    0

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Mil srmatfqv

    (AMD, eo, wddbly anqn) (JYEDX, -gnl, rmjq emjqh, anily flmvijg)

    >>3

    >?3

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    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    Gnvmlijd 4 ydnr npdrngd

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    Aivqillnqd tdl mil 4 ydnr npdrngd

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    8>

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    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    ?337%?3>> npg*

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    >>3IFD Gnvmil 3*>$ (ldq)

    Kdq tdl srdeite (righq)Aidvdl >3 sse srdeite (righq)

    (!-o, anily flmvijg) (!-q, anily flmvijg)

    %?4

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    Jnshqhn GnvmlijdKdq tdl Gnvmil 3*>$Lmw vtlshtr tdl mil High vtlshtr tdl milAidvdl >3 sse

    %>4%>3%434

    >3>4?3?46364131443

    4403047374

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    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    7/12

    7

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Mil srmatfqv

    (!-o, anily flmvijg) (bq, emjqhly anqn)

    %0%1%?3?108

    >3>?>1>0>8?3???1?0?8636?61

    6068131?

    knj%>>

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    Nvin (Eijnv)TV (WQI)Dtrmsd (Ordjq)Sdrvinj Gtl (Atoni)

    ?3

    63

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    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    1 ydnr rnjgd, qms

    1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme

    ?3>?

    1 ydnr npdrngd

    (bq, emjqhly anqn) (bq, emjqhly anqn)

    133

    143

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    443

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    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    1 ydnr rnjgd, qms

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    ?3>?

    1 ydnr npdrngd

    >33

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    633643

    133

    143

    433

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    733

    743

    833

    843

    933

    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    1 ydnr rnjgd, qms

    1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme

    ?3>?

    1 ydnr npdrngd

    (bq, emjqhly anqn) (bq, emjqhly anqn)

    >333>>33>?33>633>133>433>033>733>833>933?333?>33??33?633?133?433?033?733?833?93363336>33

    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    1 ydnr rnjgd, qms

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    1 ydnr npdrngd133

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    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    1 ydnr rnjgd, qms

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    1 ydnr npdrngd

    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, SKB Ijqdrjnqimjnl, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    8/12

    8

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Mil srmatfqv

    (AMD, eo-a, wddbly anqn) (AMD, eo-a, wddbly anqn)

    >6,1

    >6,0

    >6,8

    >1,3

    >1,?

    >1,1

    >1,0

    >1,8

    >4,3

    >4,?>4,1

    >4,0

    >4,8

    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    4y npg*

    ?3>>

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    8,7

    8,9

    9,>

    9,6

    9,4

    9,7

    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    4y npg*

    ?3>>

    ?3>?

    (AMD, eo-a, wddbly anqn) (!-q, anily flmvijg)

    1,3

    1,?

    1,1

    1,0

    1,8

    4,3

    4,?

    4,1

    4,0

    k ` e n e k k n v m j a

    4y npg*

    ?3>>

    ?3>?

    %?3

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    %8%1

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    Hdnqijg mil-Gnvmil

    Kdq tdl-Bdrmvdjd

    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    9/12

    9

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    _dlnqda djdrgy enrbdqv

    (JYEDX, !-EEOqt, rmjq emjqh, wddbly flmvijg) (IFD, rmjq emjqh, wddbly flmvijg)

    >

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    64

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    44

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    74

    83

    84!-EEOqt (ldq nxiv)

    GOs-qhdre (righq nxiv)

    (Jmra Smml, -EWh, rmjq ~tnrqdr, wddbly flmvijg) (DDX, -EWh, rmjq ~tnrqdr, wddbly flmvijg)

    ?3

    ?4

    63

    64

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    14

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    64

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    4

    7

    9

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    74

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    84

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    6

    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    10/12

    >3

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    Enrbdq ijaifnqmrv

    (wddbly flmvijg) (srifd ijadx, wddbly flmvijg)

    033

    733

    833

    933

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    (emjqhly, SEIv :43 dxsnjvipd) (emjqhly anqn)

    61

    60

    68

    13

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    10

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    43

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    41

    40

    48

    ?337

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    6?

    61

    60

    6813

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    11

    10

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    40

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    TV

    Dtrm{mjd

    Fhijn_ddrdjfd

    ($, y-y, emjqhly anqn) (emjqhly, >33 fmrrdvsmjav qm lmjg qdre qrdja grmwqh ij ijatvqrinl srmatfqimj)

    %??%?3%>8%>0%>1%>?%>3%8%0%1%?3?108

    >3>?>1>0>8?3

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    TV

    Dtrm{mjdFhijn

    96

    91

    94

    90

    97

    98

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    Fhijn

    Dtrm{mjd

    MDFA

    TVN

    _ddrdjfd

    Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, MDFA, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh

  • 7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase

    11/12

    >>

    VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq

    FMEEMAIQY _DVDN_FH AIVFLNIED_

    Qhiv vqnqdedjq n``dfqv ymtr righqvQhiv rdsmrq hnv oddj fmesilda oy VDOv Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh, n aipivimj wiqhij Vbnjaijnpivbn Djvbilan Onjbdj NO (stol) (VDO),

    qm srmpiad onfbgrmtja ij`mrenqimj mjly* Iq iv fmj`iadjqinl qm qhd rdfisidjq, njy aivvdeijnqimj, aivqriotqimj, fmsyijg, mr mqhdr tvd m`qhiv fmeetjifnqimj iv vqrifqly srmhioiqda*

    Gmma `niqh & lieiqnqimjvMsijimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja dvqienqdv fmjqnijda ij qhiv rdsmrq rdsrdvdjq qhd ntqhmrv srdvdjq msijimj nja nrd vtokdfq qm fhnjgdwiqhmtq jmqifd* Nlqhmtgh ij`mrenqimj fmjqnijda ij qhiv rdsmrq hnv oddj fmesilda ij gmma `niqh `rme vmtrfdv odlidpda qm od rdlinold,

    jm rdsrdvdjqnqimj mr wnrrnjqy, dxsrdvvda mr ieslida, iv enad wiqh rdvsdfq qm iqv fmrrdfqjdvv, fmesldqdjdvv mr nfftrnfy m` qhdfmjqdjqv, nja qhd ij`mrenqimj iv jmq qm od rdlida tsmj nv ntqhmriqnqipd* Qm qhd dxqdjq sdreiqqda oy lnw, VDO nffdsqv jm linoiliqywhnqvmdpdr `mr njy airdfq mr fmjvd~tdjqinl lmvv nrivijg `rme tvd m` qhiv amftedjq mr iqv fmjqdjqv*

    AivflmvtrdvQhd njnlyviv nja pnltnqimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja `mrdfnvqv fmjqnijda ij qhiv rdsmrq nrd onvda mj n jteodr m` nvvtesqimjv njadvqienqdv nja nrd vtokdfq qm fmjqijgdjfidv nja tjfdrqnijqidv2 ai``drdjq nvvtesqimjv fmtla rdvtlq ij enqdrinlly ai``drdjq rdvtlqv*Qhd ijfltvimj m` njy vtfh pnltnqimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja `mrdfnvqv ij qhiv rdsmrq vhmtla jmq od rdgnrada nv n rdsrdvdjqnqimj mr

    wnrrnjqy oy mr mj odhnl` m` qhd VDO Grmts mr njy sdrvmj mr djqiqy wiqhij qhd VDO Grmts qhnq vtfh pnltnqimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja

    `mrdfnvqv mr qhdir tjadrlyijg nvvtesqimjv nja dvqienqdv will od edq mr rdnli{da* Snvq sdr`mrenjfd iv jmq n rdlinold ijaifnqmr m``tqtrd sdr`mrenjfd* @mrdigj ftrrdjfy rnqdv m` dxfhnjgd eny napdrvdly n``dfq qhd pnltd, srifd mr ijfmed m` njy vdftriqy mr rdlnqdaijpdvqedjq edjqimjda ij qhiv rdsmrq* Qhiv amftedjq amdv jmq fmjvqiqtqd ijpdvqedjq napifd nja iv odijg srmpiada qm ymt wiqhmtq

    rdgnra qm ymtr ijpdvqedjq mokdfqipdv mr firftevqnjfdv* Njymjd fmjviadrijg qnbijg nfqimjv onvda tsmj qhd fmjqdjq m` qhivamftedjq iv trgda qm onvd ijpdvqedjq adfivimjv tsmj vtfh ijpdvqignqimjv nv qhdy adde jdfdvvnry* Qhiv amftedjq amdv jmqfmjvqiqtqd nj m``dr mr nj ijpiqnqimj qm enbd nj m``dr, mr vmlifiqnqimj m`, njy m``dr qm vtovfriod `mr njy vdftriqidv mr mqhdr `ijnjfinl

    ijvqrtedjqv*

    Fmj`lifqv m` IjqdrdvqVDO hnv ij slnfd n Fmj`lifqv m` Ijqdrdvq Smlify advigjda, nemjgvq mqhdr qhijgv, qm srmemqd qhd ijadsdjadjfd nja mokdfqipiqy m`rdsmrqv srmatfda oy iqv _dvdnrfh adsnrqedjqv, whifh nrd vdsnrnqda `rme qhd rdvq m` VDO otvijdvv nrdnv oy ij`mrenqimj onrridrv2 nv

    vtfh, rdvdnrfh rdsmrqv nrd ijadsdjadjq nja onvda vmldly mj stolifly npnilnold ij`mrenqimj* Ymtr nqqdjqimj iv arnwj qm qhd `nfq qhnqn edeodr m`, mr nj djqiqy nvvmfinqda wiqh, VDO mr iqv n``ilinqdv, m``ifdrv, airdfqmrv, deslmyddv mr vhnrdhmladrv m` vtfh edeodrv (n)

    eny od rdsrdvdjqda mj qhd omnra m` airdfqmrv mr vieilnr vtsdrpivmry djqiqy m` qhd fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij (o) eny, qm qhddxqdjq sdreiqqda oy lnw, hnpd n smviqimj ij qhd vdftriqidv m` (mr msqimjv, wnrrnjqv mr righqv wiqh rdvsdfq qm, mr ijqdrdvq ij qhdvdftriqidv m` qhd fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij mr eny enbd n enrbdq mr nfq nv srijfisnl ij njy qrnjvnfqimjv ij vtfh vdftriqidv (f)

    eny, nfqijg nv srijfisnl mr nv ngdjq, adnl ij ijpdvqedjqv ij mr wiqh fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij, nja (a) eny `rme qied qm qiedsrmpiad ijpdvqedjq onjbijg, tjadrwriqijg mr mqhdr vdrpifdv qm, mr vmlifiq ijpdvqedjq onjbijg, tjadrwriqijg mr mqhdr otvijdvv `rme

    qhd fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij*

    _dfisidjqvIj qhd TB, qhiv rdsmrq iv airdfqda nq nja iv `mr aivqriotqimj mjly qm (I) sdrvmjv whm hnpd srm`dvvimjnl dxsdridjfd ij enqqdrv rdlnqijgqm ijpdvqedjqv `nllijg wiqhij Nrqifld >9(4) m` qhd @ijnjfinl Vdrpifdv nja Enrbdqv Nfq ?333 (@ijnjfinl Srmemqimj) Mradr ?334 (Qhd

    Mradr) mr (II) high jdq wmrqh djqiqidv `nllijg wiqhij Nrqifld 19(?)(n) qm (a) m` qhd Mradr (nll vtfh sdrvmjv qmgdqhdr odijg rd`drrda qmnv rdldpnjq sdrvmjv* Qhiv rdsmrq etvq jmq od nfqda mj mr rdlida tsmj oy sdrvmjv ij qhd TB whm nrd jmq rdldpnjq sdrvmjv* Ij qhd

    TV, qhiv rdsmrq iv aivqriotqda vmldly qm sdrvmjv whm ~tnli`y nv enkmr T*V* ijvqiqtqimjnl ijpdvqmrv nv ad`ijda ij _tld >4n%0 tjadr qhd

    Vdftriqidv nja Dxfhnjgd Nfq m` >961* T*V* sdrvmjv wivhijg qm d``dfq qrnjvnfqimjv ij njy vdftriqy aivftvvda hdrdij vhmtla am vm oyfmjqnfqijg Vbnjaijnpivbn Djvbilan Onjbdj NO (stol) (VDONO)* VDONO nffdsqv rdvsmjvioiliqy `mr qhd fmjqdjq m` qhiv rdsmrq ij

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