sec fimsac: bbb market for corporate credit in 2020...50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 fallen...

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Kumar Venkataraman Professor of Finance, Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University SEC FIMSAC: BBB Market for Corporate Credit in 2020

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Page 1: SEC FIMSAC: BBB Market for Corporate Credit in 2020...50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Fallen angel debt (right scale) Speculative-grade returns composite (left scale) Investment-grade

Kumar VenkataramanProfessor of Finance, Cox School of BusinessSouthern Methodist University

SEC FIMSAC: BBB Market for Corporate Credit in 2020

Page 2: SEC FIMSAC: BBB Market for Corporate Credit in 2020...50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Fallen angel debt (right scale) Speculative-grade returns composite (left scale) Investment-grade

Fallen Angels point to heightened credit stress

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Record downgrades:

Jan – July 2020: $329 B

Forecast for 2020: $640 B

Ratio of BBB non-financial downgrades to outstanding BBB non-financials:

June 2019: 1.3%

June 2020: 4.5%

Source: S&P Global Ratings Report (Credit Trends: BBB Pulse), Aug 27, 2020

Page 3: SEC FIMSAC: BBB Market for Corporate Credit in 2020...50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Fallen angel debt (right scale) Speculative-grade returns composite (left scale) Investment-grade

Abundant liquidity for corporate issuers

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Corporate Bond issuances

Record issuances in the second quarter of 2020.

Revolving credit facilities

Either fully or partially drawn in record numbers by US corporations.

Source: S&P Global Ratings Report (Credit Trends: BBB Pulse), Aug 27, 2020

Page 4: SEC FIMSAC: BBB Market for Corporate Credit in 2020...50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Fallen angel debt (right scale) Speculative-grade returns composite (left scale) Investment-grade

Fed Reserve’s liquidity facility calmed the market

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Source: S&P Global Ratings Report (Credit Trends: BBB Pulse), Aug 27, 2020