second quarter 2008 - air canada · system traffic growth matches increase in capacity (y-o-y...
TRANSCRIPT
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August 8, 2008
Second Quarter 2008
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Table of Contents
• Operating Statistics
• Revenue Highlights
• Expense Highlights
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2nd Quarter EBITDAR of $249 mln
(millions)
Q2 2008
Q2 2007
Change Fav./(Unfav.)
Oper. Revenue $ 2,782 $ 2,639 $ 143
Oper. Expense 2,775 2,551 (224)
Oper. Income $ 7 $ 88 $ (81)
EBITDAR $ 249 $ 299 $ (50)
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(millions)
Q2 2008
Change
Fav./(Unfav.)
Net Interest Expense $ (55) $ (20)
Gain on Disposal 7 (7)
Other Non-Oper. Income (Exp.) 176 188
Total Non-Oper. Income $ 128 $ 161
Q2 Net Interest Expense Increased $20 mln
- fair value adjustment on derivatives
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Q2 2008Actual vs Prior Year
ASMs RPMs PLF Yield RASM Rev
Canada 2.3% 2.2% 0.0 PP 4.1% 4.0% 6.4%
US Transborder 5.8% 7.7% 1.6 PP 5.5% 3.5% 2.5%
Atlantic 0.8% 0.7% 0.0 PP 1.6% 1.6% 2.4%
Pacific 2.5% 3.5% 0.9 PP 0.9% 0.1% 2.6%
Latin Amer. & Other 25.0% 28.8% 2.3 PP 3.4% 6.5% 33.1%
Total 2.4% 2.4% 0.0 PP 2.5% 2.6% 5.1%
Total Expense 8.8%
Total CASM 6.3%
Total CASM excl. Fuel -1.7%
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Capacity Growth Slows on Domestic Services and Decreases in the U.S.
(Y-O-Y Changes in Capacity)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Canada U.S. Int'l Total
Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007
% Change in ASMs
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System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity
(Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Canada U.S. Int'l Total
Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007
% Change in RPMs
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International Yield Resumes Growth
(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Yield)
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
Canada U.S. Int'l Total
Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007
% Change in Yield
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(Y-O-Y Changes in Revenue per ASM)
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%
Canada U.S. Int'l Total
Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007
% Change in RASM
Solid RASM Performance on All Services
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Solid Domestic & International Revenue Performance While U.S. Revenues Contract
(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Revenue)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Canada U.S. Int'l Total
Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007
% Change in Revenue
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0
2
4
6
8
-2
0
2
4
Canada –Q2 RASM Increases 4.0% all on Higher Yield
% Change
0
2
4
6
8
-2
0
2
4
6
Yield RASM
Load Factor
% Change
PP Change
% Change
Capacity (ASM)
Y-O-Y Change
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-5
0
5
10
-2
-1
0
1
2
US Transborder –RASM Improves 3.5% All on Yield as LF Declines 1.6 Points
% Change
-5
0
5
10
15
Yield RASM
Load Factor
% Change
PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)
% Change
Y-O-Y Change
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
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-4
-2
0
2
Atlantic –Tight Capacity Improves LF and Yield
-2
0
2
4
6
8
% Change
-10
-5
0
5
-8-6-4-2024
Yield RASM
Load Factor
% Change
PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)
% Change
Y-O-Y Change
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
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Pacific –RASM Flat as Better Load Factor Offsets Soft Yield
-4
-2
0
2
4
% Change
-10
-5
0
5
10
-6-4-202468
Yield RASM
Load Factor
% Change
PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)
% Change
Y-O-Y Change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
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-4
-2
0
2
4
Caribbean, Latin America & Australia –RASM Jumps 6.5% on Strong Yield and LF
05
1015202530
% Change
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
Yield RASM
Load Factor
% Change
PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)
% Change
Y-O-Y Change
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
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-6-4-202468
CASM RASM
-1
0
1
Total – System RASM Lifts 2.6% All on Higher Yield – Total CASM Incr. 6.3% All on Fuel – Ex. Fuel CASM Down 1.7%
0
2
4
6% Change
0
1
2
3
4
Yield RASM
Load Factor
% Change
PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)
% Change
Y-O-Y Change
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008
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Average Salary Up 1%; Employee Levels Up 353 or 1.5%
(Y-O-Y Change – Average Salaries & Employees)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08
Average Salaries Employees
% Change Y-O-Y
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08
Fuel Productivity (ASMs/Lt) Fuel Cost (Cdn cts/Lt)
% Change Y-O-Y
Cost/Litre Up 32.6% While Fuel Productivity Improves 1.8% Reflecting the New 777's and the Removal of Two Freighters
(Fuel Productivity & Unit Cost)
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RPM
s
ASM
s
S W
& B
A/C
Fuel
Own
ersh
ip
Com
miss
.
User
Fee
s
Mtc
e.
Com
& IT
Food
/ Ba
r
Cap.
Pur
ch.
Oth
er
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
"Other" Cat. Incr. 1.8% on Higher ACV Gr. Pkg. Costs, Credit Card Fees & Advertising
% Change Y-O-Y
Q2 2008/2007
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-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08
Unit Cost Up 6.3% as Positive 777 Impact, Currency Benefit and Other Cost Reductions More Than Offset by Soaring Fuel – Ex Fuel Unit Cost Down 1.7%
(Cost Per ASM)
% Change Y-O-Y
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Caution Regarding Forward-looking InformationAir Canada’s public communications may include written or oral forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Such statements are included in this presentation and may be included in filings with regulatory authorities and securities regulators. Forward-looking statements relate to analyses and other information that are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. These statements may involve, but are not limited to, comments relating to strategies, expectations, planned operations or future actions. These forward-looking statements are identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “anticipate", “believe", “could", “estimate", “expect", “intend", “may", “plan", “predict", “project", “will", “would", and similar terms and phrases, including references to assumptions.
Forward-looking statements, by their nature, are based on assumptions and are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Any forecasts or forward-looking predictions or statements cannot be relied upon due to, amongst other things, changing external events and general uncertainties of the business. Results indicated in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results due to a number of factors, including without limitation, energy prices, general industry, market and economic conditions, currency exchange and interest rates, competition, war, terrorist attacks, epidemic diseases, insurance issues and costs, changes in demand due to the seasonal nature of the business, the ability to reduce operating costs, employee and labour relations, pension issues, supply issues, changes in laws, regulatory developments or proceedings, pending and future litigation and actions by third parties as well as the factors identified throughout this presentation and, in particular, those identified in the “Risk Factors" section (Section 17) of Air Canada’s 2007 MD&A dated February 6, 2008 and section 13 of our second quarter MD&A dated August 8, 2008. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent the Corporation’s expectations as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. However, the Corporation disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities regulations.
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