second quarter 2008 - air canada · system traffic growth matches increase in capacity (y-o-y...

22
August 8, 2008 Second Quarter 2008

Upload: others

Post on 02-Oct-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

August 8, 2008

Second Quarter 2008

Page 2: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Table of Contents

• Operating Statistics

• Revenue Highlights

• Expense Highlights

Page 3: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

2nd Quarter EBITDAR of $249 mln

(millions)

Q2 2008

Q2 2007

Change Fav./(Unfav.)

Oper. Revenue $ 2,782 $ 2,639 $ 143

Oper. Expense 2,775 2,551 (224)

Oper. Income $ 7 $ 88 $ (81)

EBITDAR $ 249 $ 299 $ (50)

Page 4: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

(millions)

Q2 2008

Change

Fav./(Unfav.)

Net Interest Expense $ (55) $ (20)

Gain on Disposal 7 (7)

Other Non-Oper. Income (Exp.) 176 188

Total Non-Oper. Income $ 128 $ 161

Q2 Net Interest Expense Increased $20 mln

- fair value adjustment on derivatives

Page 5: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Q2 2008Actual vs Prior Year

ASMs RPMs PLF Yield RASM Rev

Canada 2.3% 2.2% 0.0 PP 4.1% 4.0% 6.4%

US Transborder 5.8% 7.7% 1.6 PP 5.5% 3.5% 2.5%

Atlantic 0.8% 0.7% 0.0 PP 1.6% 1.6% 2.4%

Pacific 2.5% 3.5% 0.9 PP 0.9% 0.1% 2.6%

Latin Amer. & Other 25.0% 28.8% 2.3 PP 3.4% 6.5% 33.1%

Total 2.4% 2.4% 0.0 PP 2.5% 2.6% 5.1%

Total Expense 8.8%

Total CASM 6.3%

Total CASM excl. Fuel -1.7%

Page 6: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Capacity Growth Slows on Domestic Services and Decreases in the U.S.

(Y-O-Y Changes in Capacity)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007

% Change in ASMs

Page 7: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity

(Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007

% Change in RPMs

Page 8: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

International Yield Resumes Growth

(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Yield)

-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007

% Change in Yield

Page 9: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

(Y-O-Y Changes in Revenue per ASM)

-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007

% Change in RASM

Solid RASM Performance on All Services

Page 10: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Solid Domestic & International Revenue Performance While U.S. Revenues Contract

(Y-O-Y Changes in Passenger Revenue)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Canada U.S. Int'l Total

Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007 Q2 2008/2007

% Change in Revenue

Page 11: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

0

2

4

6

8

-2

0

2

4

Canada –Q2 RASM Increases 4.0% all on Higher Yield

% Change

0

2

4

6

8

-2

0

2

4

6

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP Change

% Change

Capacity (ASM)

Y-O-Y Change

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Page 12: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

-5

0

5

10

-2

-1

0

1

2

US Transborder –RASM Improves 3.5% All on Yield as LF Declines 1.6 Points

% Change

-5

0

5

10

15

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)

% Change

Y-O-Y Change

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Page 13: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

-4

-2

0

2

Atlantic –Tight Capacity Improves LF and Yield

-2

0

2

4

6

8

% Change

-10

-5

0

5

-8-6-4-2024

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)

% Change

Y-O-Y Change

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Page 14: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Pacific –RASM Flat as Better Load Factor Offsets Soft Yield

-4

-2

0

2

4

% Change

-10

-5

0

5

10

-6-4-202468

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)

% Change

Y-O-Y Change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Page 15: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

-4

-2

0

2

4

Caribbean, Latin America & Australia –RASM Jumps 6.5% on Strong Yield and LF

05

1015202530

% Change

-5

0

5

10

-10

-5

0

5

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)

% Change

Y-O-Y Change

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Page 16: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

-6-4-202468

CASM RASM

-1

0

1

Total – System RASM Lifts 2.6% All on Higher Yield – Total CASM Incr. 6.3% All on Fuel – Ex. Fuel CASM Down 1.7%

0

2

4

6% Change

0

1

2

3

4

Yield RASM

Load Factor

% Change

PP ChangeCapacity (ASM)

% Change

Y-O-Y Change

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Page 17: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Average Salary Up 1%; Employee Levels Up 353 or 1.5%

(Y-O-Y Change – Average Salaries & Employees)

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08

Average Salaries Employees

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 18: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08

Fuel Productivity (ASMs/Lt) Fuel Cost (Cdn cts/Lt)

% Change Y-O-Y

Cost/Litre Up 32.6% While Fuel Productivity Improves 1.8% Reflecting the New 777's and the Removal of Two Freighters

(Fuel Productivity & Unit Cost)

Page 19: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

RPM

s

ASM

s

S W

& B

A/C

Fuel

Own

ersh

ip

Com

miss

.

User

Fee

s

Mtc

e.

Com

& IT

Food

/ Ba

r

Cap.

Pur

ch.

Oth

er

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

"Other" Cat. Incr. 1.8% on Higher ACV Gr. Pkg. Costs, Credit Card Fees & Advertising

% Change Y-O-Y

Q2 2008/2007

Page 20: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08

Unit Cost Up 6.3% as Positive 777 Impact, Currency Benefit and Other Cost Reductions More Than Offset by Soaring Fuel – Ex Fuel Unit Cost Down 1.7%

(Cost Per ASM)

% Change Y-O-Y

Page 21: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007

Caution Regarding Forward-looking InformationAir Canada’s public communications may include written or oral forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Such statements are included in this presentation and may be included in filings with regulatory authorities and securities regulators. Forward-looking statements relate to analyses and other information that are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. These statements may involve, but are not limited to, comments relating to strategies, expectations, planned operations or future actions. These forward-looking statements are identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “anticipate", “believe", “could", “estimate", “expect", “intend", “may", “plan", “predict", “project", “will", “would", and similar terms and phrases, including references to assumptions.

Forward-looking statements, by their nature, are based on assumptions and are subject to important risks and uncertainties. Any forecasts or forward-looking predictions or statements cannot be relied upon due to, amongst other things, changing external events and general uncertainties of the business. Results indicated in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results due to a number of factors, including without limitation, energy prices, general industry, market and economic conditions, currency exchange and interest rates, competition, war, terrorist attacks, epidemic diseases, insurance issues and costs, changes in demand due to the seasonal nature of the business, the ability to reduce operating costs, employee and labour relations, pension issues, supply issues, changes in laws, regulatory developments or proceedings, pending and future litigation and actions by third parties as well as the factors identified throughout this presentation and, in particular, those identified in the “Risk Factors" section (Section 17) of Air Canada’s 2007 MD&A dated February 6, 2008 and section 13 of our second quarter MD&A dated August 8, 2008. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation represent the Corporation’s expectations as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. However, the Corporation disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable securities regulations.

Page 22: Second Quarter 2008 - Air Canada · System Traffic Growth Matches Increase in Capacity (Y-O-Y Changes in Traffic)-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% ... Q2 2007/2006 Q3 2007/2006 Q4 2007/2006 Q1 2008/2007