securenv – future security threats and the environment: from bioengineering to environmental crime...
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SECURENV – Future security threats and the environment: from bioengineering to environmental crimeEssen Security Innovation Symposium
Irina Comardicea | adelphiEssen, 5 October 2010
Tonia Pöppler / pixelio.de RSA .orgThe Sydney Morning Herald
1. The SECURENV project
a. Goals
b. Preliminary findings
2. State of Foresight process
a. Delphi Survey
b. Scenario-building workshop
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Agenda
The SECURENV Project
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“Assessment of environmental accidents from a security perspective”
Funding: EU FP7 “Coordination and support” action
Duration: 2 years May 2009 – April 2011
Consortium of 3 Partners:
• Geonardo Environmental Technologies Ltd. – Hungary
• adelphi – Germany
• Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) – Sweden
The SECURENV Project – Goals
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Review and analyse past environmental accidents, catastrophes and events
&Identify novel and emerging threats on the environment
as well as the technological opportunities
Develop an appropriate foresight methodology for developing potential scenarios involving environmental terrorism
Provide policy recommendations to European policy-makers and relevant expert and practitioner communities
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SECURENV Inspiration
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SECURENV Inspiration
From accidents to intentional attacks
Manipulating the environment is not new
‘Security’ and ‘environment’ linked in space and time
• Agriculture, animal domestication, plant cultivation: foundations for complex societies
• Environment as a target or a weapon during times of war
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SECURENV Selected Findings
Environmental crime Environmental terrorism“Forest Jihad”?
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SECURENV Selected Findings
Agroterrorism
Increased vulnerability
Open access infrastructure for food and water
Intense farming and livestock rearing
Damages to food supply, health, authority
Hoaxes!
Kansas Farm Bureau
University of Pennsylvania
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SECURENV Selected Findings
Synthetic Biology
Artificially created organisms, etc.
Exponential technological advances
Biohacking and democratisation of knowledge
Unknown consequences and poor system understanding
Hoaxes!
Source: after Matthews and Turner, 2009
Human Intervention
En
viro
nm
enta
l Im
pac
ts
unintentional action
additional intentional action
Low system understanding
High system understanding
The SECURENV Project – Goals
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Review and analyse past environmental accidents, catastrophes and events
&Identify novel and emerging threats on the environment
as well as the technological opportunities
Develop an appropriate foresight methodology for developing potential scenarios involving environmental terrorism
Provide policy recommendations to European policy-makers and the intelligence community
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SECURENV Foresight
Why a Foresight?
Future challenges and changes can come from abrupt shocks as well as long-term trends
Shocks can be the product of long-term trends can be anticipated
SECURENV uses foresight methods and scenario-building techniques
“a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process”
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SECURENV – Delphi Survey
April 2010Delphi
Round 1
June 2010Delphi
Round 2
Nov 2010Scenario
Workshops
Jan 2011Final
Workshop
Background Research
• Based on the background research, brainstorming
• Used as input to the scenario workshop
• Included more than 740 experts in round 1 and more than 120 in round 2
• 12 questions covering a range of topics
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SECURENV – Delphi Survey
• 3-4 November, Stockholm
• Around 40 experts from environment and security fields
• Looking at Delphi topics in the context of 3 established European security scenarios (FORESEC), among which:
• Environmental infrastructures
• Geoengineering technologies
• Genetically modified organisms
• Expect the output of priority challenges for the EU and the creation of 2-3 SECURENV-specific scenarios
April 2010Delphi
Round 1
June 2010Delphi
Round 2
Nov 2010Scenario
Workshops
Jan 2011Final
Workshop
Background Research
Thank you!
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SECURENVBalazs Bodo | Project Coordinator
Geonardo, Budapest Hungary
www.securenv.eu
adelphiIrina Comardicea | Project Manager
adelphi, Berlin Germany