security planning and transformation arthur k. cebrowski director, force transformation 14 september...

40
Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Institutionalizing Transformation Achieving Balance The Future Force

Upload: claire-sherman

Post on 30-Dec-2015

214 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Security Planning and Transformation

Security Planning and Transformation

Arthur K. CebrowskiDirector, Force Transformation14 September 2004

Arthur K. CebrowskiDirector, Force Transformation14 September 2004

• Institutionalizing Transformation• Achieving Balance• The Future Force

• Institutionalizing Transformation• Achieving Balance• The Future Force

Page 2: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Strategic Transformation Appraisal … The TPG Process in Action

StrategicPlanningGuidance

FY2006 - FY2011

JOINTOPERATIONSCONCEPTS

November 2003

MajorCombat

Operations

Joint Operating Concept

StabilityOperations

Joint Operating Concept

StrategicDeterrence

Joint Operating Concept

HomelandDefense

Joint Operating Concept

JointTransformation

Roadmap

2003

ArmyTransformation

Roadmap

2003

NavalTransformation

Roadmap

2003

Air Force Air Force Transformation Transformation

Flight PlanFlight Plan

20032003

Strategic Transformation Appraisal

Page 3: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Continuing process

Creating / anticipating the future

Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology

New competitive areas / competencies; revalued attributes

Fundamental shifts in underlying principles

New sources of power

Changing behavior – values, attitudes, beliefs

Broad Findings … Elements of Transformation

Page 4: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

National Security is more than defense• More than responsive and punitive preventative

• More than stopping something keeping the world system up and running

• More than the “big one” the whole spectrum of military competition

• Homeland security defense in depth

• Increasing globalization and national security transaction rates compel increased internationalization and civilianization of defense

Broad Findings … Transforming the Role of Defense

Page 5: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Broad Findings … Transforming the Force

Last year … New this year … • More expeditionary • Lighter, more agile, easily deployable

units

• More networked • Knowledge-enabled warfare

• Designed to leverage the exterior positions

• Sustain on-call, global precision strike

• Leverage increasingly persistent ISR

• Persistent engagement

• Tighter sensor-shooter timelines • Improved horizontal intel distribution

• Value information superiority • Demand-centered intelligence

• Joint interoperability at the operational level

• Jointness to the tactical level

• Emphasized unmanned capabilities • Substitution of capital for labor

Page 6: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Broad Findings…Transforming the Way of War

What’s Valued … • Networking

• Sensing

• Envelope management

• Speed & maneuverability

• Numbers

• Risk tolerance

• Staying power

New this year …

Increasing the “speed of command” of a networked, distributed force contributes to more rapid force projection and engagement– High transaction rates

– Increased information rate and volume

– Increased complexity and scale of operations

– Tolerance for ambiguity and unpredictable demand

Duration

Inte

nsi

ty

Alter InitialConditions

Page 7: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

IrregularErode our power: Unconventional methods adopted and employed by non-state and state actors to counter stronger state opponents. (e.g., terrorism, insurgency, civil war and emerging concepts like “unrestricted warfare”)

Likelihood: very high; strategy of the weakVulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked

TraditionalChallenge our power: States employing legacy and advanced military capabilities and recognizable military forces, in long-established, well-known forms of military competition and conflict. (e.g., conventional air, sea, land forces and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)

Likelihood: decreasing (absent preemption) due to historic capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative leadVulnerability: low, only if transformation is balanced

Security Environment … Four Challenges

Lower

Lower

Higher

Higher

LIKELIHOOD

VU

LN

ER

AB

ILIT

Y

CatastrophicParalyze our power: Acquisition, possession and possible employment of WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against vulnerable, high-profile targets by terrorists and rogue states. (e.g., homeland missile attack, proliferation from a state to a non-state actor, devastating WMD attack on ally)

Likelihood: moderate and increasingVulnerability: unacceptable; single event could alter U.S. way of life

DisruptiveMarginalize our power: International competitors developing & possessing breakthrough technical capabilities intended to supplant U.S. advantages in particular operational domains. (e.g., sensors, information, biological or cyber warfare, ultra miniaturization, space, directed-energy, etc)

Likelihood: low, but time works against U.S.Vulnerability: unknown; strategic surprise puts U.S. security at risk

Page 8: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Total Force Balance… Security = All Else + Defense

The Close Fight:Decisive OperationsLandLittoralsLow Altitude

Winning / Maintaining the PeaceSocial Intelligence

All Sources of Power

Winning the Battle / CombatMilitary Intelligence

Combat Power

Maximum ComplexityMaximum ComplexityH

egem

onic

Str

ateg

ies

Heg

emon

ic S

trat

egie

s

Den

ial

Str

ateg

ies

Den

ial

Str

ateg

ies

Win

nin

g th

e W

ar

Global Stability Local Stability

Domain of Cooperative Engagement

Domain of Strategic Primacy

Domain of Political Victory

Domain of Military Victory

The Commons:The Strategic ImperativeHigh Seas & Air AboveSpaceCyberspace

Page 9: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Total Force Balance… Security = All Else + Defense

Winning / Maintaining the PeaceSocial IntelligenceAll areas of power

Winning the Battle / CombatMilitary Intelligence

Combat Power

Maximum ComplexityMaximum ComplexityH

egem

onic

Str

ateg

ies

Heg

emon

ic S

trat

egie

s

Den

ial

Str

ateg

ies

Den

ial

Str

ateg

ies

Win

nin

g th

e W

ar

Global Stability Local Stability

Domain of Cooperative Engagement

Domain of Strategic Primacy

Domain of Political Victory

Domain of Military Victory

Technology Sharing / Transfer

Economic Access / Trade

Technology InsertionEconomic Construction

Economic DominanceTechnology Dominance

Economic DestructionTechnology Denial

The Close Fight:Decisive OperationsLandLittoralsLow Altitude

The Commons:The Strategic ImperativeHigh Seas & Air AboveSpaceCyberspace

Page 10: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Total Force Balance… Security = All Else + Defense

Winning / Maintaining the PeaceSocial Intelligence

Political Power

Domain of Cooperative Engagement

Domain of Strategic Primacy

Domain of Political Victory

Domain of Military Victory

Winning the Battle / CombatMilitary Intelligence

Combat Power

Global Deployment PatternsStrategic Posture

Deter ForwardAllied Interoperability

Assuring AlliesStrategic Influence

StabilizationReconstructionPolitical Access

Strategic PowerSpace Superiority

Information SuperiorityDissuade Competition

Power ProjectionProtectionCombat Access

Maximum ComplexityMaximum ComplexityH

egem

onic

Str

ateg

ies

Heg

emon

ic S

trat

egie

s

Den

ial

Str

ateg

ies

Den

ial

Str

ateg

ies

Win

nin

g th

e W

ar

Global Stability Local Stability

The Close Fight:Decisive OperationsLandLittoralsLow Altitude

The Commons:The Strategic ImperativeHigh Seas & Air AboveSpaceCyberspace

Page 11: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Trends in Security Competition

• Short Cycle Time• New Competencies• Adaptive Planning • Coherently Joint • Interdependent

Information Age

• Developed Rules• Mature Markets• Narrowing Customer Base• Security = Defense

Globalization II(1947 – 199X)

• Emerging Rules• Market Opportunities• New Customer Base Emerging• Security = All Else + Defense

Globalization III(199X – 20XX)

• Long Cycle Time• Well Developed Tools / Processes• Deliberate Planning• Deconflicted Joint• Tortured Interoperability

Industrial Age

Page 12: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Strategic Posture/BalanceForces forwardDeploy from home Allies

Operational Maneuver

From forward garrison From the seaFrom strategic distances

Deter Forward2d derivative forceSustaining forceConstabulary/Nation-building force

Forces Forward(Garrison Forward)(Sea-based)(Hubs)

Strategic DeployFrom Home

(Reactive)

Alliances

Strategic Distances(CONUS and Hubs)

Sea GarrisonForward

Security System Balance? … Major Movements

Page 13: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

FunctioningFunctioning

FunctioningFunctioning

Functioning

Functioning

FunctioningFunctioning

Functioning

Mostly Non-Integrating Gap

Evac’s Peace/Relief Contingency Positioning Show of Force Combat

U.S. Military Responses to Situations, 1990-2002

Strategic Posture … Exporting security

The Red Zone… …Our Response

Page 14: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Top Level Issues … Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes

Event Focused Continuous

Punitive Preventative

Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory

Citizen SoldierVolunteer (Recruited) Force Professional

Warrior + Enforcer + “Systems Administrator”

Projecting Power Exporting Security

Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle}

Page 15: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Global Trends and Implications of Exporting Security

Policy choices:• Engagement

policy• Culture &

organizations• Substitution of

capital for labor • Increased

civilian component

• Increased international component

Page 16: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Transactions vs Resources

TRANSACTIONS

RESOURCES

TIMEt1 t2

Anticipating Perfectly Predictable Surprises

t3

Page 17: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

The Collection – Analysis Gap … Managing the inevitable

Policy Choices:• Automate Triage• Automate Analysis • We all become analysts

Policy Choices:• Automate Triage• Automate Analysis • We all become analysts

Page 18: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

The Advance to Baghdad

1. Rate of Advance outruns logistics communications and transportation

2. Logisticians shift to “push” system – use models, SitReps, to “sense” supply needs

3. Tactical Units shift to cross-supply to fill gaps

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

03-20-03 03-22-03 03-24-03 03-26-03 03-28-03 03-30-03 1/4/2003 3/4/2003 5/4/2003

Mil

es t

o B

agh

dad

Day of Conflict

Page 19: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Transforming Defense … Corporate Strategy

Part I: Continuous small steps

Part II: Many exploratory jumps

Part III: A few big bets

Big Bets We Are Making• Joint network-centric warfareJoint network-centric warfare

• Directed energyDirected energy

• Seabasing => Joint OMFTSSeabasing => Joint OMFTS

• Demand-centered intelligenceDemand-centered intelligence

Big Bets We Have Not Made … Yet• Joint seamless machine-to-machine integration

• Joint re-directed energy

• Demand-centered logistics

• Tactically responsive space

“If you are not making big bets you are a fixed strategic target at risk.”

Page 20: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Identify Issues of Regret … Candidates for Action Now

Warfare Elements• Fire – non-lethals, directed energy, redirected energy• Maneuver – seabasing, vertical battlefield, lift for operational maneuver• Protection – urban operations, “biomedical countermeasures” cycle time• C2&C – joint interdependency vs. interoperability• ISR – demand-centered intelligence, tactically responsive space• Logistics – joint demand-centered logistics

Risk Management (creating on-ramps)• Joint S&T – broaden the capabilities base, create generational depth• Joint concept development & experimentation – short cycle time / rapid

iteration, concept-based / technology-enabled• Joint training – live / virtual / constructive / distributed• People – culture and organizations

Page 21: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Approaches to Logistics

Prime Metric: Days of Supply

Prime Metric: Flow Time

Prime Metric: Speed / Quality of Effects

Mass-Based

More is better Mountains of stuff measured

in days of supply Uses massive inventory to

hedge against uncertainty in demand and supply

Mass begets mass and slows everything down

Sense and RespondJust-in-Time

Adaptive is better Inventory is dynamically

positioned throughout Uses transportation

flexibility and robust IT to handle uncertainty

Supports distributed, adaptive ops

On-time is better Inventory is reduced to a

minimum and kept moving Uses precise demand prediction

& static optimization to purge uncertainty

Works great, except when it doesn’t

Network-Centric Warfare

Global Information

Grid

Page 22: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

What’s the Behavior Telling Us?

“ “Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain”Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain”

Current Logistics ConceptsCurrent Logistics Concepts(Predominant Approach)(Predominant Approach)

““Adaptive, responsive demand networks”Adaptive, responsive demand networks”

Sense & Respond LogisticsSense & Respond Logistics(Predominant Approach)(Predominant Approach)

Sources of Stuff(Theater, CONUS, etc)

Joint Force Capabilities

Packages

Army Stuff

Navy Stuff

USAF Stuff

USMC Stuff

Common Stuff

Other Stuff

Distributed Operations

““TraditionalC2”TraditionalC2” ““Context & Context & Coordination”Coordination”

Transition from Transition from linear supply chain linear supply chain to adaptive demand to adaptive demand

networknetwork

Page 23: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

• Rebalance focus from “Traditional” to “Irregular,” “Catastrophic” and “Disruptive” challenges

• Adopt cost as a strategy – Both cost of war and program costs

– Create cost-suppressing strategies

– Transform non-discretionary areas

– Address cost imposing strategies against our adversaries

• Transform management of key functions– Realign information activities management under CIO

– Achieve demand-centered joint intelligence

– Organize joint logistics around the battlefield, not around the supplier

– Make generational S&T integral to the defense strategy

Recommendations

Page 24: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Strategic Approach to Cost

The Need:

Since this is the age of the small, fast and many, we need organizations, processes and a strategic approach to cost capable of delivering the requisite capabilities.

An Approach:

– Strategies for divestiture and devolution of capabilities

– Suppressing the monetary cost of war

– Cost imposing strategies

– Mitigation of cost imposing strategies

– Reversing the current trend of paying more for decreasing returns

New metrics create opportunities for new cost dynamics!

Page 25: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Key Elements:• Decrease operational costs• Achieve better ROI for less• Broaden the capabilities base• Create and preserve future options• Manage divestiture• Transform non-discretionary areas• Impose cost to adversary• Develop counter-cost imposing strategies

Strategic Approach to Cost

New metrics create opportunities for new cost dynamics!

Page 26: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Budget Strategy

• Fixed Metrics

• Reduce Total Expenditures

• Decreasing ROI

• Greatest margin / transaction

• Reduce transactions to reduce cost

Strategic Approach to Cost

Cost Strategy

• Flexible metrics

• Reduce individual entity cost

• Increasing ROI

• Greatest number of transactions with positive margin

• Maximize transactions proportional to entity cost

Page 27: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Operationally Responsive Space Experiment

TACSAT 11969

2 stories high9 ft in Diameter

TACSAT 12003

20” high41” in Diameter

• Design, build and launch operationally relevant satellite in less than 1 year

• Less than $15M including launch

Page 28: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Global UtilitiesOperational Needs

Cost

Mission Criticality

Risk

Capability

Complexity

Requirements

Centralized Control

Classification

Competing Users

Launch Challenges

National

National Strategic TacticalOperational

Page 29: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Demand Driven

Military Capability

Autonomous

Networked

Decentralized Control

Reduced Classification

Broadened User Base

Decreased Cycle Times

Risk Tolerant

Operational

NationalStrategicTactical Operational

Military Space“Demand Driven”

Page 30: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Relay Mirror System …The Killer App for HELs

• Attributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror SystemAttributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror System– Extended range of engagement for air, land and sea-based systemsExtended range of engagement for air, land and sea-based systems

– Improved engagement timelineImproved engagement timeline

– Increased field of regardIncreased field of regard

– Improved battlefield standoff for manned systemsImproved battlefield standoff for manned systems

• Low cost force multiplierLow cost force multiplier– High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems offer early operational High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems offer early operational

capability for high value missionscapability for high value missions

Page 31: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Re-Directed Energy

• Objective:– Re-direct laser energy beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) via airborne relay mirror system

– Build an experimental system compatible with the High Altitude Airship (HAA) ACTD that creates a technical means to provide indirect laser propagation geometries

• Unarticulated Need:– Over horizon active defense, communication and sensing

Re-Direct laser energy to over-the-horizon objectives i.e. cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aircraft, artillery, and ground targets

Re-Direct laser energy to operational nodes within the optical communications footprint Direct line image relay without optical to electronic conversion

• Approach:– The FY05 rapid field experiments will determine the operational viability and

prepare a functional surrogate to accurately redirect laser energy through the ARMS payload suspended from a crane.

– In FY06 the system will be upgraded to include light weight components and higher power levels for operational effects and conduct concept-driven operational experimentation onboard a persistent low altitude airborne platform High-risk components and subsystems experiments will be performed A functional surrogate will be configured for the prospective HAA ACTD

Page 32: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Operational Maneuver From the SeaAdvanced Intermodal Mobility (AIM)

Page 33: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Shallow Draft / High-Speed Sealift 6000 - 8700 nm, 60-100 knots, 5000 ton payload

• Tactically Survivable: Agile maneuverability … speed / angles• Carbon fiber/ Kevlar strength, inherent multi-dimensional stealth &

networked defense

• Operationally Feasible: Modular missions … rapid reconfiguration• Electronic keel and support service standards & protocols, mission-oriented

mobility systems, reconfigurable payloads

• Strategically Viable: Adaptable mobility … speed of response• High Payload-fractions, sustained tempo / reduce foot print ashore

Page 34: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

• Cultural barriers– Speed of understanding vs speed of doctrine

Cognitive interoperability and exploitation of shared awareness

– Values, attitudes and beliefs

• Physical barriers– Speed of mass (lift and mobility)– Speed of information (connectivity & interoperability)

• Fiscal barriers– Willingness and ability to devalue and devolve– Discretionary versus non-discretionary

• Process barriers– Transformation of the management of defense (not addressed)

Key Barriers to Transformation … challenges for the Department

Page 35: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Key Barriers to Transformation … Example of a Cultural Change

• Large indivisible units

• Transformation for the future (a destination)

• Independence

• Transformation for a few

• Smaller, modular, multi-functional units

• Transformation as a change today (a journey)

• Interdependence

• Transformation for everyone

Cultural change is a matter of leadership

Page 36: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Indicators of Cultural Change … Within the next 10 years

… some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Per

cen

t of

Res

pon

dan

ts

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2000“Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation,” Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons Naval War College, 2002

Strongly Disagree Unsure Strongly Agree

Page 37: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Indicators of Cultural Change … Within the next 10 years

… some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites.

20022000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Per

cen

t of

Res

pon

dan

ts

1 2 3 4 5 6 7“The Limits of Transformation: Officer Attitudes toward the RMA,” Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons, NWC, 2003

Strongly Disagree Unsure Strongly Agree

Page 38: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Elements of Transformation

Continuing process

Creating / anticipating the future

Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology

New competitive areas / competencies and revalued attributes

Fundamental shifts in underlying principles

New sources of power

Changing values, attitudes, beliefs

Page 39: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

TransformationDown at the grange they’re teachin’ a new way of plowin’ Ya’ goin’?

Nope!I already don’t plow as good as I know how ...

www.oft.osd.mil

Page 40: Security Planning and Transformation Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 14 September 2004 Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation

Office of Force Transformation

Q & A