self sufficiency, food security and food and environment ... · future of self sufficiency, food...
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Self sufficiency, Food security and Food safety
in Sri Lanka
Dr WMW Weerakoon
Director / Senior Agronomist
Field Crop Research and Development Institute,
Mahailluppallama
Presented at IPS – IFPRI – National Consultation Workshop at the IPS Auditorium, July 2015
Food security ……
When all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 1996)
Are we producing enough food?
• Excess production of rice
- Vulnerable to seasonal fluctuation
• Production of OFC’s does not meet the requirement
• Year round production of vegetables ???
– Quality??
• Seasonality in fruit production ??
Demand for all food crops would increase significantly in the future…….
Consumption pattern Per capita consumption kg/ year • Rice - 107 kg
• Rice based food - 8.8 Kg
• Wheat flour - 25 kg
• Vegetables - 40 kg
• Fruits - 30 kg
• Oil - 4.7 liters
+ 86 coconuts
• Chicken - 5.7 kg
– Population - 900 billion
– Rate of increase in food production is on the decline
– Food for energy generation - Bio fuel ???
– Rising income, urbanization and changing food habits
– Declining subsidies
– Increasing cost of inputs and restrictions
– Diminishing land availability and productivity
– Climate Change
Global Crisis …….
Competition for food is increasing We must produce our own food
Daily consumption, g
2013* 2020 2030
Rice 319 270 220
Pulses 6.5 30 50
Nuts (G’nut) 3.3 8 12
Meat based
products 24 35 43
Rice consumption should be decreased, Consumption of pulses and nuts should be
increased
Food requirement, tons / year
2013 2020 2030
Rice 2,432,637 2,192,242 2,018,291
Pulses 51,115 253,135 461,437
Nuts 26,639 68,139 111,790
Meat based
products 233,260 362,190 486,685
Oil 403,720 573,135 783,571
Food Requirement
National Rice production • In 2012 Paddy production decreased by 0.2% to 3.88 million tons
compared to 2011.
• 2013 – Excess production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2020 2030
Year
Production Requirement
Trend in Asweddumized Extent, Annual Cultivated Extent, Production and Average Yield of Rice in Sri Lanka ( 1950 - 2013)
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 6 8 10 12
Asw
edd
um
ized
Ext
. & C
ult
ivat
ed E
xt. (
mill
. ha)
, P
rod
uct
ion
(m
ill. t
) &
pro
du
ctiv
ity,
t h
a
Year
Cultivated Extent Annual Production Average Yield Asweddumized Extent
Some rice growing eco-systems in Sri Lanka
Ecosystem Season Area
‘ 000 ha
Present
average t/ha
Realizable
Potential
t/ha
Target yield, t/ha
2015 2020 2030
Dry&Intermediate zone
major irrigation
Maha 253,027 5.14 8 6.00 6.50 7.00
Yala 163,256 4.85 7 5.50 6.00 6.50
Dry&Intermediate zone
minor irrigation
Maha 112,766 4.19 8 5.20 5.50 6.50
Yala 47,441 3.77 7 5.00 5.50 6.00
Dry Zone rainfed Maha 47,214 3.55 6.5 3.80 4.00 4.50
Yala 1462 3.2 5.5 3.80 4.00 4.50
Intermediate zone rainfed Maha 44,190 3.73 6 4.00 4.50 5.00
Yala 21,801 3.26 6 4.00 4.50 5.00
Wet Zone Maha 82,075 3.39 5 4.00 4.00 4.50
Yala 68,462 3.22 5 4.00 4.00 4.50
Cultivated extent, average, potential and target yield for
different eco systems during Maha & Yala seasons
Trends in OFC technology in Sri LAnka
1950s
1980s
today
2020’s
2030s
Establishment of Dry zone research
Self-sufficiency
• Green revolution
Year-round production ?? Quality ??
• Ecological zone based crop cultivation
• Less dependence on hazardous chemicals
Self sufficiency, High quality produce, Efficient input use, eco-friendly
• Cutting-edged technologies, climate smart agric
• Labor-saving, quality improvement
Safety, functionality, value-added OFC
• Improvement of public health
• Leisure living, Healthy nation
Self sufficiency ???? Environment security
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
ann
ual
req
uir
emen
t a
nd
pro
du
ctio
n
year
Requirement PRODUCTION
Requirement and Production (000’ tons) of maize in Sri Lanka
• Large millers - 04
• medium and small millers - 17 Total compound Animal Feed requirement
Poultry 802,000 tons
Dairy 140,000 tons
Poultry feed production
2013 - Maize Usage in feed 189 000 tons >25%
Requirement
2014 @ 25% 240 000 tons
@ 35% 275000 tons
@ 50% 480000 tons
Dairy feed production
2014 – 140 000 tons
Feed Industry in Sri Lanka
0
1
2
3
4
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
pro
du
tivi
ty, t
/ha
ann
ual
ext
ent
and
pro
du
ctio
n
year
Annual extent PRODUCTION AVERAGE YIELD
Maize Annual extent (ha), Production (tons) and National average yield (tons /ha)
National requirement and production of OFC’s
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Maize Big onion Soybean
2013 requirement 2020 requirement 2013 prodution
National requirement and 2013 production of OFC’s
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000P
rod
uct
ion
, to
ns
2013 requirement prodution 2013
In 2013 …….. Total OFC Requirement - 912,000 tons. Total production - 506,000 tons
More food from less Land
Water
Labor
Agro chemicals
The Greatest Challenge is to achieve MORE from LESS
“Challenges in the Dry Zone Agriculture - worse”
Cu
ltiv
atio
n b
ase
d o
n A
gro
Ec
olo
gica
l Zo
ne
More Crops must be produced on less land
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Pe
r ca
pit
a ag
ric.
Lan
d a
rea
Agr
ic.
lan
d a
rea,
ha
Year
Agricultural land area (ha) per capita agri land area, ha
Mahailluppallama
Climatic Regions of Sri Lanka
Crop National Average yield, t/ha 2013
Realizable potential, t/ha
Research potential, t/ha
in 2013
Land requirement with present national average
yield, ha
Land req. (ha) with increased
avg. yield
2013 2015 2015 Green chillie 4.7 8 32 15,455 15,455 10,000 Dry chillie 1 2 7 44,050 45,000 22,500 Red Onion 12.1 14 18 5,877 6,623 5,714 Groundnut 1.8 2 2.8 15,876 19,337 17,500 Mungbean 1.3 1.5 2.5 16,706 19,309 16,348 Cowpea 1.3 1.5 2 12,436 9,325 8,206 Blackgram 0.8 1.2 2.2 16,256 17,073 11,667 Finger millet 1.2 2 4 6,926 8,449 4,943 Sesame 0.8 1 1.6 17,129 18,072 15,000 Maize 3.1 5 8 67,778 129,450 80,000 Big onion 16.5 20 37 14,455 15,152 12,500 Soybean 1.7 2.2 3.5 102,941 117,647 90,909
Total 335,885 420,891 295,287
Land requirement with present productivity and realizable potential to meet the total OFC need
Highest annual extent cultivated with OFC over the last 30 years - 277,124 ha
Bridge the yield
gap
Crop Present national
average yield,
t/ha
Yield
achieved in
2014, t/ha
Targeted realizable
yield, t/ha
2018 2025
Green chili 4.7 32 35 40
Maize 3.1 7.0 7.5 9.0
Big onion 16.5 37 40 45
Red onion 12.1 18 14.0 16
Ground nut 1.8 2.8 2.5 2.8
Finger millet 1.1 4.0 4.0 4.5
Black gram 0.9 2.2 2.5 3.0
Green gram 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.0
Cowpea 1.3 2.5 2.8 3.0
Soybean 1.7 3.5 4.0 4.5
Increase productivity
Further Increase yield potential
Unrealized Yield Gaps in OFC (Dry Zone)
Yie
ld (
t/ha)
Unrealized Yield Gap
Biotic stresses (Pests & Diseases)
Abiotic stresses (Drought, Nutrient deficiency
Poor Crop Management
Presence of optimum field conditions in all eco systems is an unrealistic target. Varieties should be able to withstand stresses without affecting yield
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Maximum realized yield underoptimum conditions
National average yield
Maize
Past achievement Before 1950’s - All traditional varieties ( about 300)
- Tall plant type (>1-2 meters) - Lodging - Long maturity period (>5 month) - Fertilizer non-responsive - Susceptible to rice blast (a disease) - good grain quality (for local standards)
- Predominantly one crop a year (photosensitive mawee varieties) - Low productivity (1 t/ha) Heenati, Hondaravalu, Murungakayan, Muthu samba
Suduru samba etc. Rice Sector
Trends of Rice Extent, Annual Production, Average Yield, Rice Imports and Population
growth over past seven decades ( 1940 – 2013 ) in Sri Lanka
Decade
Population
(millions)
Production
(ton. millions)
Cultivated
Extent
(ha. millions)
Yield
(t./ha)
Rice Imports
as a % of
requirement
1940 6.0 0.26 0.25 0.65 60
1950 7.5 0.52 0.38 1.56 50
1960 9.9 0.90 0.59 1.86 40
1970 12.5 1.60 0.75 2.63 25
1980 14.7 2.12 0.85 2.94 10
1990 16.3 2.50 0.85 3.18 5
2000 18.5 2.86 0.87 3.86 <1
2010 20.0 4.25 1.10 4.5 <1
2013 21.0 4.62 1.13 4.33
Increase
over 1940 decade 3.3 fold 17.0 fold 4.5 fold 6.66 fold 60
New varieties and associated technologies
1. Develop new varieties for both Favourable and unfavourable eco systems – Maximize production from high potential eco systems
– Optimum production from medium potential eco systems
2. Varieties for specific purposes • Increase functional properties
• Increase palatability
3. Varieties / crops for specific AEZ’s
- Further exploit available germplasm -Introduction -Reverse engineering -Conventional crop improvement methods -Use of new tools
Mid century average temperature and precipitation
Maha season
GCM models used (20) 1. CCSM4 (E), 2. GFDL-ESM2M (I), 3. HadGEM2-ES (K), 4. MIROC5 (O), 5. MPI-ESM-MR (R)
Batalagoda
Bombuwela
Yala season
Do we have the necessary germplasm, Adaptation measures …
Some of our rice varieties are adaptable to diverse eco systems
Optimum temperature for different crop species – tropical environment
Crop Optimum temp. Rice - 310C (sterility - pollen death when spikelet T 0 - > 320C)
Maize - 310C (high temp + moisture stress - empty pods)
Chilli - 28 0C (above 330C – flower drop, poor pod setting)
Soybean - 30 0C (> 400C – empty pods)
Grain crops will be most affected with increasing air Temp.
Water.. Excess? Deficit?? • Water is becoming an scarce resource
– Global per capita availability (1959 – 2005) decreased by 34 – 76%
• Share of water for agriculture is fast declining
• Rice consumes about 50% of irrigation water in Asia
• Farming is becoming vulnerable to changes in rain fall…. Excess??? Deficit???
Total water flow and amount diverted in Mahaweli
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Inflow Diversion Courtesy of Mahaweli authority
Diversify well drain paddy lands with other crops
Alternatives to water shortages
Agronomic water management
Tolerant varieties
Methods of establishment
Screening for moisture stress
PULSES
Item Water requirement, L/Kg
Beef 3798
Pork 1546
chicken 959
peanut 650
Soybean 442
Pigeonpea 88
Water efficient crops
Climate Smart Agriculture
• Adaptation of climate smart measures for the Dry Zone tank eco systems – Reuse ground water with alternative
irrigation systems
• Increasing Resilience of Upland Cropping Systems to CC Impacts through a Modified conservation farming technologies – Incorporate the concept of precision farming
Modified alley cropping
Dead storage phase
• Climate-resilient cultivars, coupled with climate-smart production practices
Need modification
Sterility
We must be ready with new varieties and adaptation technologies
Screening for high temperature
Do you think that the crops that we eat are safe?
Rice Blast
Bacterial Leaf Blight
Brown Plant Hopper
Gall Midge
Rice (Oryza sativa)
Major pests and diseases Chilli
Chillie
Grain legumes
“people of the world must decide that we either use agricultural chemicals
and use them wisely,
in the right amount and
the right kind, to produce the food
or we all starve.”
Dr. Norman Borlaug
Biologically efficient • Highly selective • Fast impact • Optimal residual effect • Good plant tolerance • Low risk of resistance development
User friendly • Low acute toxicity • Low chronic toxicity • Good formulation characteristics • Safe application method • Long store stability
Environmentally sound • Low toxicity for non target organisms • Fast degradation in the environment • Low mobility in soil • No residue in food and fodder • Low application rate
Economically viable • Good cost : profit ratio for the farmer • Broad use • Applicability in integrated Crop + Pest Management • Innovative product, Competitive and Patentable
Pe
rfe
ct A
gro
Ch
em
ical
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
% In
sect
icid
e u
sage
Year
Class 1 class 11 Class 111 Class 1V
Insecticides used in Sri Lanka over the years
Low Toxic chemicals but farmers application window is very short
Agro chemical cost
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Rs
pe
r ac
Pesticide cost 2002-2013 maha season
Paddy chilli Red onion Green gram
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rs
pe
r ac
Pesticide cost 2002-2012 yala season
Paddy Soya bean chilli Big onion Red onion
Import of Agro chemicals to the country, mt year
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Insecticides Herbicides Fungicides
Formulation, tons
• Management options – Time of planting
– Integrated pest management approaches
– Judiciary use of fertilizer
–Use of resistant varieties
reduced number of sprays from more than 4 to less than 1
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
1970 2010
Chemical usage
insecticides Fungicides Weedicides
Usage of insecticides decreased Usage of weedicides increased
Rice is a much safer food than any other major food that we eat
Agro chemical usage by farmers for OFC
Spraying intervals adopted by farmers, yala 2009
Spraying interval % of farmers
<4 days 26
4 – 6 days 46
7 – 9 days 20
10-14 days 8
Crop Recommended Spraying interval, days
Interval practiced by farmers, days
Chilli 10 - 14 4
Legumes 10 - 14 3 sprays
Onion 10 4
Maize 3-5 WAP (once) Weekly application
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Ch
em
ical
ap
plie
d.
Ml h
a
Days after planting
with sprinkler without sprinkler farmer practice
Chilli
Reduce Biotic stresses – Develop resistant varieties and associated technologies
• Continue identification of resistant / tolerant lines
• Integrated pest and disease management packages for major OFC
• Use of biotechnology to increase variety resistance
• How much of the chemicals apply endup in the biological cycle “Detection of Toxicological impurities in food, feed and water”
Food Security, Self sufficiency at what cost ??
Future food security and Self sufficiency depends on Further increase in
Yield potential
with varieties and associated technologies having
Higher input use efficiencies and
Resistance / Tolerance to
biotic and abiotic stresses
Those have it - will win
Those who don’t have it ????
Thank you
Constraints for OFC cultivation
• Increasing yield gap between potential and realized by farmers
• Lack of high yielding varieties
• No specialized varieties for specific food items - Changing food habits
• Variable weather patterns / climate change
• Diminishing natural and other resources
• Increasing pest and disease impacts
• Diminishing labour availability and increasing cost of labour
• Concerns about the environments
• Variable market status - gluts and scarcities
• Variable remuneration between crops
• Changing world trends in food production