selling wine in a global recession - final - nov2009

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Candidate number: 07003691 Selling Wine in a Global Recession November 2009 Selling Wine in a Global Recession UK Retail (Off-Trade) Perspective Introduction This report takes as its scope the wine category within the UK Retail Off-Trade 1 . This has been a booming market over the last 10 years 2 with growth resulting from a mainly price-led model which has suited broad- based retailers better than those reliant solely upon wine for their fortunes. This model was showing signs of strain even before the current recession. The intensification of pressures brought about by the recession has made it clear that a sustainable model needs to emerge for the future in which price plays only a part and retailers look to build value rather than volume growth. Sector size and structure The total UK market for wine is worth just over £9 billion with volume at 1.1 billion litres. 86% of the volume (and 65% of the value) 3 is accounted for by the off-trade. The off-trade has been gaining share from the on-trade over the last 10 years, boosted by the smoking ban in 2007. The number of off-trade outlets is around 45,000 4 ,consisting of supermarkets , convenience stores (such as Co-Op, Londis) and specialist wine outlets (both chains and independents). In addition, the internet is emerging as a new sales channel. 1 The off-trade is defined as those retail outlets, ie shops, where alcohol is purchased but not consumed (ie it is consumed off the premises, usually at home) by contrast with the on-trade, ie bars and restaurants, where alcohol is purchase for immediate, on-premise, consumption. 2 Between 1997 and 2007, the UK light wine market grew by close to 35 million 9- litre cases. AC Nielsen data reproduced by WSET for diploma slide. 3 AC Nielsen estimate for total wines, including light wines, sparkling, Champagne, fortified and vermouths. 52 weeks to 11 July 2009 for the off-trade and to May 09 for the on-trade. 83% of the value and 89% of the volume is accounted for by light wines such that the trends in this category tend to dictate the overall performance of the wine market. 4 AC Nielsen Scantrack Universe Structure May 2009 Page 1 of 16

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Page 1: Selling Wine in a Global Recession - FINAL - Nov2009

Candidate number: 07003691Selling Wine in a Global Recession

November 2009

Selling Wine in a Global Recession

UK Retail (Off-Trade) Perspective

Introduction

This report takes as its scope the wine category within the UK Retail Off-Trade1. This has been a booming market over the last 10 years 2 with growth resulting from a mainly price-led model which has suited broad-based retailers better than those reliant solely upon wine for their fortunes. This model was showing signs of strain even before the current recession. The intensification of pressures brought about by the recession has made it clear that a sustainable model needs to emerge for the future in which price plays only a part and retailers look to build value rather than volume growth.

Sector size and structure

The total UK market for wine is worth just over £9 billion with volume at 1.1 billion litres. 86% of the volume (and 65% of the value) 3 is accounted for by the off-trade. The off-trade has been gaining share from the on-trade over the last 10 years, boosted by the smoking ban in 2007.

The number of off-trade outlets is around 45,0004,consisting of supermarkets , convenience stores (such as Co-Op, Londis) and specialist wine outlets (both chains and independents). In addition, the internet is emerging as a new sales channel.

The lion’s share of this market is taken by the supermarkets at 70.6%5. Tesco dominates with a share of around one-third of the wine market6, roughly mirroring its overall share of grocery purchasing7. The power of the supermarkets is critical since they do not rely solely upon wines and can use the category as they see fit in order to fulfil their bigger mission.

Multiple specialists’ share fell from 10.5% in 2005 to 8.5% in 20078. High Street names such as Oddbins, Thresher and Wine Rack have undergone the upheaval of ownership changes and have struggled in their attempts to compete with supermarkets. Majestic9, by contrast, appears to have a viable formula as does

1 The off-trade is defined as those retail outlets, ie shops, where alcohol is purchased but not consumed (ie it is consumed off the premises, usually at home) by contrast with the on-trade, ie bars and restaurants, where alcohol is purchase for immediate, on-premise, consumption.2 Between 1997 and 2007, the UK light wine market grew by close to 35 million 9-litre cases. AC Nielsen data reproduced by WSET for diploma slide.3 AC Nielsen estimate for total wines, including light wines, sparkling, Champagne, fortified and vermouths. 52 weeks to 11 July 2009 for the off-trade and to May 09 for the on-trade. 83% of the value and 89% of the volume is accounted for by light wines such that the trends in this category tend to dictate the overall performance of the wine market.4 AC Nielsen Scantrack Universe Structure May 20095 AC Nielsen estimates given at WSTA conference September 20096 AC Nielsen 52 weeks to 27 January 2007 showed the share of wine at 32.4%7 AC Nielsen Homescan 52 weeks to 13 June 2009 indicates Tesco’s share of total liquor to be 34.3% and total purchasing 32.6%8 AC Nielsen data reproduced by WSET for diploma lecture slide.9 Majestic announced Preliminary Profits of £12.7M for the year to March 2009. This performance was down on the prior year yet appeared robust by comparison with their competitors in the specialist sector.

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Bargain Booze10 at the other end of the price spectrum (and notably trading in a broader base of products than just wine). A number of independents11 continue to carve out a living, catering to a niche clientele.

Today’s market

The UK market over the last 10 years can be depicted as a “virtuous circle”12 whereby global oversupply of wine 13 has found its way to UK supermarkets at competitive prices. With little regulation of pricing and promotions14, the supermarkets have used price to attract new customers to the category. In turn, the attractive growth picture that has been created 15 has drawn suppliers around the world to compete for a foothold in the UK market, fuelling the continued rise of price-driven growth. The fragmented nature of the wine category on the supplier side has enabled the major retailers to hold the balance of power in negotiations.

Market growth

Supplier focus on UK

Price competition

Rise of supermarkets

Broadening consumer

base

Rise of foodie culture & wine

interest

Receptivity to wines from any

country

Improved production techniques

Oversupply

Figure 1: Current Model of UK Wine Market (Off-Trade)

Today’s supermarket sees shelves full of Half Price and 3 for £10 offers - enticing consumers to pop wine into their shopping trolley along with the baked beans. Whilst retailers do express fear of potentially tougher future legislation16, commercial drivers appear to have led to only limited steps being taken to self-regulate around pricing and promotional activity17.

10 In its issue dated 9 October 2009, Off Licence News reported that Bargain Booze showed a pre-tax profit of £11.2 million on turnover of £357 million in their latest accounts logged at Companies House.11 IGD/William Reed Business Media Ltd records 1592 independent off-licences in their supplement to The Grocer “Grocery Retail 2008”. 12 Figures 1 and 2, depicting models for the market, are of my own devising.13 OIV 2007 statistics for global surplus 1995-200614 Although the devolved Scottish Parliament has started to pass more restrictive laws in 2009, retailers in the rest of the UK remain free to, for instance, sell below cost, sell alcohol in multiple bottles and build displays of alcohol outwith the specific section of the store.15 OIV 2007 and AWBC Winefacts 2007 referenced in diploma lecture slides shows the UK as either number 1 or 2 for wine imports behind Germany 16 Nick Room of Waitrose said: “Excessive regulation in spite of the new EU regs is a concern.” – in response to my questionnaire 24/9/09.17 Retailers increasingly include responsible drinking messages in-store but continue to price promote heavily within the legal framework with only the “Buy one, get one free” mechanic having been voluntarily dropped in recent years.

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A key characteristic of the UK wine retail market is the sheer variety of wines on offer. Living in a country without significant wine production of its own, the UK consumer has historically been open to trying a broad spectrum of wines from different countries. This is helpful to the retailer because, if one country becomes more expensive, there is the possibility of steering consumers towards an alternative.

Brands owned by large wine companies such as Constellation have increased in importance. However, suppliers have tended to take the lead of supermarkets and market their brands on a price-led basis unlike, for instance, global spirits brands which have been built on a premium positioning.

Challenges being faced by the sector

The model of a market growing primarily on the appeal of price has its limitations. There is ultimately a consumer threshold for wine consumption and there are various pressures on the consumer in this regard, as well as pressures on other parts of the model, particularly the feasibility of maintaining low retail prices.

This model has worked well enough for supermarkets who can afford to sell wine at reduced margins with the prospect of recouping on the total shopping basket. However, specialists reliant on wine for their profits have found it a challenge to compete with the supermarkets. Those who have competed head-on (such as Threshers of whom more later in this report) tend to have floundered.

The recent slowing of growth in the UK wine market may have started to make it less attractive to suppliers18. With Asian markets opening up to wine, UK retailers are perhaps starting to experience a weakening of their negotiation position.

Consumption patterns

69% of the adult population regularly drink wine (with a further 14% drinking it occasionally)19. Penetration growth has slowed considerably in recent years and Wine Intelligence believes the “natural ceiling” to be 71%20. A slowing of market volume growth since 2005 appears to bear this out21.

There are particular factors moderating against further increases in alcohol consumption, either per capita or in terms of increased penetration:

Publicity campaigns to encourage more responsible consumption of alcohol are ongoing, funded by government and lobby groups as well as the alcohol industry itself, coerced by government under the threat of more draconian legislation.

18 Off Licence News reported on 17 July 2009 that agents and producers were concerned about operating in the UK market. Johnny Powell of Stevens Garnier was quoted as saying “The promotional demands on margins are forcing all but the major producers to look for markets other than the UK” and a South African producer said “Producers from South Africa are considering their involvement in the UK long-term as there is simply no money to be made in the volume category”.19 Wine Intelligence UK, April 200920 “The 2015 Wine Consumer Behaviour Model” by Lucie Halstead, Wine Intelligence Ltd, April 2005. Total penetration was at 68% in 2004 and, in Wine Intelligence’s most recent report in 2009, it has climbed to only 69%, so far backing up the predictions in this 2005 report.21 Still light wine volume sales slowed to 1% in 2006 compared to typical rates of 6% each year since 1997 and 10% in the period 1991 to 1997. ACNielsen data shown in graph produced by WSET for diploma lecture.

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Perhaps in response to this, per capita total alcohol consumption is reducing22. The lack of historical wine culture means that wine’s place in the drinking repertoire is not guaranteed. It has to compete with other drinks categories supported by strong marketing investment, especially spirits but also beer and cider23.

Pressure on Retail Prices

Although oversupply has continued so that low cost prices can sometimes be secured by the retailer, there are other issues putting pressure on the retail price:

Duty increases have become steeper in recent years, giving the UK one of the highest levels of excise duty in Europe24. It seems likely that improvements in viticultural and vinification techniques are starting to plateau with diminishing returns in terms of cost reductions that can be passed on to the retailer.Other costs such as packaging and shipping have also been subject to price increases.

The particular challenges of global recession

The full force of the global recession started to be felt in the UK from Autumn 2008. Its effect has been to intensify the factors already putting pressure on the “virtuous circle” and to tip ailing businesses over the edge. Prime examples are the specialist chains run by First Quench and Wine Cellar, both of whom had posted profit losses prior to the recession and were eventually forced into administration in October 2009.

The extra challenges created by the recession are described below.

Changes in consumer attitudes to spending

The recession has led to a rise in unemployment 25and a fearfulness amongst consumers26. Whilst expenditure has been reined in mainly on big-ticket items, grocery shoppers have displayed an increased interest in deals and there is evidence of switching to different supermarkets27 and trading down within categories.

With wine having come to be seen as a regular part of the shopping basket, the impact could have been expected to be relatively minor. However, luxury segments such as Champagne were bound to suffer in a more cost-conscious climate28.

22 WSTA cited evidence of declining alcohol consumption in their 2009 budget submission to HM Treasury.23 Although starting from a low base, cider has remained in growth during recession with ACNielsen reporting 16% value growth in the 52 weeks to 8 August 2009 24 In their press release of 12 March 2008, published on their website, the WSTA said “people in Britain now pay more tax on wine than in any other European Union country”. According to the European Commission’s Excise Duty Tables dated July 2009 on www.ec.europa.eu, the UK is currently the second highest after Ireland for Sparkling Wines and the third highest after Ireland and Finland for still wines.25 Office for National Statistics26 AC Nielsen report “It’s the Consumer, Stupid!” by Tony Walsh June 2009. The report shows big decreases in consumer confidence and increases in concern over job security and the economy.27 “...discounters are performing well ahead, with +16% growth, indicating that shoppers are looking for alternatives in the current economic climate”. “Discounter Update” by Gillian Slowly of AC Nielsen October 200828 AC Nielsen Off-trade data for the 52 weeks to 11 July 2009 shows champagne sales falling by 14%.

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Further taxation

The chancellor levied an additional duty increase on 1st December 2008 just as recession was biting in the UK economy. Although accompanied by a VAT reduction, for the average bottle of wine, this duty increase outweighed the VAT cut29. Adding this extra duty increase to the usual springtime increases, by April 2009, duty had risen by 21% (28p per bottle) in just 13 months30.

The fall in sterling

The value of sterling on the global currency markets fell steeply from October 2008. This has made the cost of wine rise in both the Euro-zone31 and for wines purchased in US dollars (USA and South America). The Australian economy has remained strong, causing the value of sterling to drop against the Australian dollar32, increasing the cost of Australian wines and having a significant impact since they represent over one-fifth33 of wine sold in the off-trade.

Tactics for surviving the downturn

It could be argued that the recession has forced businesses both to refocus and to become more innovative. Successful tactics have included further competition in price promotions and a range of more creative approaches.

Price promotions

Despite the combined hit of an extra duty increase and unfavourable exchange rates, retailers quickly became more aggressive in their promotional activity with the onset of recession. Alcohol promotions increased overall with wine accounting for 63.4% of promotions compared to 41.4% in 200834. The main mechanics, seemingly still very effective, have continued to be Half Price and 3 for £10 in the major supermarkets.

Retailers not already offering this depth of deal, have taken the opportunity to strengthen their offers during recession, for instance Waitrose ran half price offers for the first time on Hardy’s Crest.

Special parcels – taking advantage of continued oversupply

Cheap wines have continued to be available from regions with excess supply.

29 The VAT reduction only cancelled out the duty increase at a retail price of £6.24. At an average bottle price at the time of £4.12, retailers gained 7.7p in VAT but lost 11.7p in duty (my calculations).30 UK Duty figures Wine & Spirit Trade Association31 The Euro reached a high of 86p in June 09, a considerable increase on its reasonably steady position between 60p and 70p between 2000 and 2007. “Industry Analysis – Market Monitor”, Off-Licence News 3 July 200932 From 2.35 (Nov 08) to 1.79 (Oct 09) per currency exchange websites.33 Off Licence News Wine Report 2009 puts Australian wine’s volume market share at 22%.34 Assosia quoted in The Grocer 10 Oct 2009

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Tesco has been able to find sources of wine from Spain and Italy, package them in tetrapak and price at £3.99 per litre. Wines from Hungary and Bulgaria also remain on supermarket shelves at this price level.Fortuitously for retailers, there has been an excess supply of New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc. This wine style was growing in popularity at a premium price but has been discounted in 2009 (as low as £3.99 in Tesco; inclusion in “3 for £10” in Sainsbury’s). New Zealand is the only country which has seen its average bottle price reduce in the last year, albeit from a high base (£6.53 to £6.34). Volume has grown by 30%35.Specialists such as Majestic and Avery’s have offered special prices on parcels of wine where particular wineries have needed to clear stock through36. Marketed as genuine deals on limited stocks, these have met with a positive customer response.

Range reviews

The recession has resulted in ranges being reassessed, based on the current cost of wines and their role within each retailer’s particular business.

Tesco shifted their focus to keep their wine offer in line with their overall positioning as “Britain’s biggest discounter” manifesting in a reduction of the range by some 200 wines 37(an 18% cut), mainly at the premium end.Changes in suppliers’ price lists encouraged David Lawson of independent specialist, Chez Vin, to look hard at sales patterns and revise the range to suit his customers’ preferences but also to offer something new.

Creativity

Several retailers have capitalised on the trend for eating-in by offering “Meal Deals” encompassing a bottle of wine. In addition, some retailers report an increase in average bottle price on the back of this trend38.A range of initiatives have been used to encourage consumer experimentation, for instance Tesco’s food-matching initiative “Tastes Great With” and their trial of an electronic “Virtual Wine Advisor”. Waitrose has used ”Buyer’s Favourite” and “If you like this, try that” barkers and ran a promotional period focussed on Mediterranean wine and food.As a way to maintain or boost wine consumption in a responsible way, the industry is showing a willingness to explore lower alcohol wines39. Waitrose used cost-effective bulk shipping and lightweight glass in its launch of “Virtue” wines, communicating a green message as well as hitting a £3.99 price point.From 1st September 2009, Majestic took the bold step of amending its core proposition. Following a successful pilot, it reduced its minimum purchase from 12 to 6 bottles across all stores. This appears

35 AC Nielsen 52 weeks to 8 August 200936 Chris Hardy of Majestic was quoted by The Drinks Business in their report on 19 October 2009: “A lot of desperate producers will need to turn more stock into cash so there are lots of keen prices out there.”37 Harpers Wine & Spirit interview with Pierpaolo Petrassi of Tesco – 21 August 200938 Nick Room of Waitrose and David Lawson of Chez Vin both reported this trend in interviews conducted in September 2009. Martin West, Marketing Director of Oddbins, was quoted in The Grocer on 15 August 2009: “If people are staying in for the evening, they are happy to spend an extra £1 or £2.”39 On 1st October 2009, following the change in EU law to permit alcohol reduction, the WSTA held a well-attended conference specifically on this topic.

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to be a logical move in line with the times, lowering the hurdle rate for existing shoppers, thus retaining their loyalty, and opening up the prospect of attracting new customers.

Opportunism

With sterling remaining strong against the rand, retailers have been able to source South African wine at good prices. The average retail price for South African wine has only risen by 2% against an average of 4%. As a result, South Africa has seen the biggest growth of all countries of origin with 35% value growth40.Chez Vin took advantage of the closure of a nearby beer specialist to expand into local ales, a diversification which helps to secure the future for the core wine business.With property costs falling, for those retailers with sufficient resources, the recession has offered opportunities to expand (eg Lea & Sandeman opened a new branch in Chiswick and Northern independent chain, Corks Out, expanded; Bottle Apostle became a new independent on the scene in London). Within the supermarket arena, Waitrose has been buying up property in a push into the convenience sector and the Co-Op is in the process of converting stores acquired from Somerfield.

Conclusion and personal commentary

Headline statistics for the off-trade wine sector suggest that damage-limitation has been successful.

Individual retailer success may be measured in different ways. The main goal of supermarkets is to deliver positive shareholder returns on their overall business and recent results suggest they are achieving this. We may look at the wine category in Tesco and surmise that they have lost some premium wine customers with their shift of focus back to low prices and promotional deals. However, Tesco plc 41 posted positive sales and profit results in October 2009 as did Sainsbury’s42, Morrison’s and Co-Op. In terms of the wine category, analysis suggests that supermarkets may have to reappraise it as a less abundant source of profit albeit important for attracting customers to their stores.

Specialists who have differentiated themselves from supermarkets appear to have been the most successful and the concept of survival of the fittest has been played out in this channel with the loss of weak players.

As we move through recession, there is some evidence of creativity, so we may look back and see the pressures of this period as a positive force for change. It is becoming apparent that the old virtuous circle, which was already under strain, needs to be re-modelled post-recession to provide a sustainable future to the industry.

Successful damage limitation but at the expense of profit?

40 ACNielsen 52 weeks to 8 August 200941 www.tescoplc.com Tesco plc Interim Results 09/10 published on 6 Oct 09 (Results for 26 weeks to week ending 29 Aug 09: Tesco Group sales +8.3%; Group Trading Profit +14%). 42 www.j-sainsbury.co.uk (Second Quarter Trading Statement for 16 weeks to 3 October 2009: Total sales growth +3.2%).

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Modest growth in light wines (+2% in volume and +6% in value43) has compensated for declines in Champagne and fortified wines, such that wine overall has held on to its share of alcohol beverage sales in the off-trade 44. Particular styles of wine have proved resilient, notably Pinot Grigio45, still rosé wines 46and sparkling wines other than Champagne47.

The average retail price for a 75cl bottle of wine has increased from £4.08 to £4.2648 and the proportion of wine sold at over £5 has increased by over 2 percentage points. However, wine at £5 or below still represents 79.5% of all wine sold in the off-trade with 50% at £4 or below49.

Duty as a proportion of the average price of a bottle sold rose from 33% in 2006 to 38% in 200950, indicating that suppliers and retailers are continuing to absorb some of the duty increases and failing to recover other cost increases. If this continues, retailers may have to start accepting that maintaining low retail prices will be at the cost of profit. The alternative will be to ease off the price-led activity and reduce expectations around future volume growth.

Consumer habits

It will be interesting to see whether habits formed in recessionary times become permanent or are discarded once consumers feel more financially comfortable, for instance being tempted back to the on-trade.

The anecdotal changes in behaviour towards a little less wine but at a higher price may conceivably continue, particularly as government anti-alcohol campaigns persist.

The trend towards purchasing all kinds of goods online continues apace and I would expect future generations to see this as the default option. Selling wine online remains a definite growth opportunity51.

The future for supermarkets

For the foreseeable future, it seems that a majority of consumers will still seek to buy wine at below £5 and decisions will be deal-led52. Quality is likely to be compromised to maintain these low price points although consumers may overlook or accept the compromise. Already some creative ideas are being explored as ways to avoid compromising quality, notably the 50cl bottle size which enables desirable price points (albeit not price per litre) to be held as well as coinciding with health messages around restricting alcohol intake.

43 AC Nielsen 52 weeks to 8 August 200944 At 44.2%, this is just a 0.1% drop in value share year on year. AC Nielsen 52 weeks to 8 August 200945 A Wine Intelligence survey in July 2009 found that the number of consumers saying they drank Pinot Grigio had increased to 54% from 47% in October 2008.46 AC Nielsen 52 weeks ending 8 August 2009. Rosé wine grew by 12.1% and now accounts for over 12% of the light wine market by volume.47 Although sparkling wine has lost 1% in volume, it has seen a 7% growth in value, suggesting a willingness to spend more on a sparkling wine which will still cost less than a Champagne. AC Nielsen 52 weeks ending 8 August 2009. Dave Thornton of Waitrose Wine Direct gave me his perspective: “Prosecco has been a runaway success story in 2009”.48 Off Licence News Wine Report 2009 based on Nielsen Scantrack data 52 weeks to 16 May 200949 AC Nielsen 52 weeks to 8 August 200950 My calculations based on data per footnote 4751 Michelle Russell reported for www.just-drinks.com on 16 June 2009 that Majestic had announced online sales growth of 16% compared to 2.4% overall and that Tesco and thedrinkshop.com were quoting growth rates of 8% and 9% respectively. TNS state for the 52 weeks to 22 March 2009, total grocery online sales grew at 35%.52 In The Wine Intelligence Briefing November 2008, the research company summarises that “nowhere else in the world is the promotional offer behind the wine so important as in the UK” with their study ranking it the most important factor in decision-making, level with the grape variety.

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The future for specialists

A minority of discerning consumers will seek quality along with education and inspiration. These need to be the target for specialist wine retailers prepared to work hard to attract them. The prospective change in the law to permit the sale of small servings53 may offer part of the solution, enabling “try before you buy” perhaps through more widespread use of enomatic machines (as used by Bottle Apostle and The Sampler in areas of London where local authorities have permitted their use).

In conclusion

The emergence of a new model is a possibility, albeit with inherent tension remaining at the price-led end of the market. The new picture could look as follows:

Market stable in volume, growing in

£

Supplier negotiation power

increases

Price competition becomes harder to

maintain

Creative approaches to

winning consumer

Static consumer base

Balanced supply and

demand

Growth of alternative

markets

Increased taxation

More restrictive legislation

Figure 2: Potential Future Model for UK Wine Retail Market (Off-Trade)

There are factors here over which UK retailers have little control (supply54, taxation55, legislation56). However, my view is that, in the future, retailers will need to look to build value rather than rely on continuing volume 53 The government announced on 28 September 2009 that it would deregulate wine measures below 75ml (welcomed by Jeremy Beadles in the Wine & Spirit Trade Association’s press release on the day of the announcement - www.wsta.co.uk)54 Oversupply may remain an issue, certainly in particular vintages, given the inherently variable nature of output. However, bodies such as New Zealand Winegrowers have already taken steps to prevent a collapse of the value of their market. On www.decanter.com Rebecca Gibb quotes David Cox of New Zealand Winegrowers “we will be back in supply balance by the 2010 vintage ... we have stopped planting and we have opened new markets.”55 Short-term, VAT is set to increase on 31st December 2009 and the current government seems set on implementing the duty escalator (duty at 2% above inflation) each Spring.56 A general election will be called by May 2010 which may or may not lead to a change of government, resulting in possible changes to alcohol taxation and legislation strategy

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growth. The specialist sector certainly needs to focus on approaches other than just price in order to thrive. However, as their negotiation position potentially weakens, creativity will also need to be used by the supermarkets to find ways to continue offering attractive prices but also to appeal to the consumer in other ways.

Ends.

Report written November 2009.

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Bibliography

Personal interviews

Nick Room, Wine Buyer, Waitrose plc

Dave Thornton, Product Manager, Waitrose Wine Direct

David Lawson, owner/manager of independent wine specialist, Chez Vin in Otley, West Yorkshire

Trade Publications

Grocery Retail 2008 – supplement to The Grocer

The Grocer – various issues

Harpers Wine and Spirit Magazine – various issues

Off Licence News Wine Report 2009

Off Licence News – various issues

Websites

www.harpers.co.uk

www.just-drinks.com

www.decanter.com

www.oiv.int (The International Organisation of Vine and Wine)

www.wsta.co.uk (The Wine and Spirit Trade Association)

www.statistics.gov.uk (The Office for National Statistics)

www.ec.europa.eu (European Commission)

www.tescoplc.com

www.j-sainsbury.co.uk

www.majestic.co.uk

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Bibliography (continued)

Other Sources

WSET Diploma lecture slides

The Wine Intelligence Briefing - November 2008

“The 2015 Wine Consumer Behaviour Model” by Lulie Halstead, Wine Intelligence Ltd, April 2005

“It’s the Consumer, Stupid!” by Tony Walsh, AC Nielsen, June 2009

“Discounter Update” by Gillian Slowly, AC Nielsen, October 2008

Presentation by Steward Blunt of AC Nielsen at the WSTA conference September 2009

Observations made in stores and on retailer websites over the period May – November 2009

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