Ways of asking about the impact of overseas work on Filipino families

Michael Clemens – June 15, 2011

Managing Migration for Development conference, Marseille

with migration

without migration

?

with migration

without migration

income

pass fail

120 115 110 105 100135 130 125

with migration

without migration

barely pass barely fail

income

with (observed)

without with (impact)

Observed difference

Impact

Kids in school +7% +20%

Others work –15% 0%

Others migrate –5% +16%

Impact evaluation is an opportunity: PROGRESA

• influence imitators

• defend from political change

• modify during scale-up

• more (sustainable) funding

• contribute to public knowledge

mclemens@cgdev.org

Benefits of rigor likelyto exceed costs when…

1. cost relatively low

2. policy decision not needed instantly

3. consequences of wrong policy particularly bad

4. impossible to treat everyone

5. strong interests necessitate an objective criterion of “success”

6. evaluated setting is similar to scaled-up intervention