seminar report 3-day seminar on wind power and ......integration of wind and photovoltaic ~pv power...

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Turkish Grid Study Dokument: GIZ-Turkey_GridInt-Report_final_v1.docx Page 1 of 27 15/12/2015 Seminar Report 3-day Seminar on Wind Power and Photovoltaic Integration into Power Systems GIZ PN: 11.9039.6-001.00 Assignment: Development of Methodology for Turkish Grid Study Activity No: 3.1.2.1 To: Dörte Heimann Director Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency GIZ Turkey By: Renewables Academy (RENAC) AG Albrecht Tiedemann Schönhauser Allee 10-11 10119 Berlin Germany E-mail: [email protected] Berlin, December 15, 2015

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Turkish Grid Study

Dokument: GIZ-Turkey_GridInt-Report_final_v1.docx Page 1 of 27 15/12/2015

Seminar Report

3-day Seminar on Wind Power and Photovoltaic Integration into Power Systems

GIZ PN: 11.9039.6-001.00

Assignment: Development of Methodology for Turkish Grid Study

Activity No: 3.1.2.1

To:

Dörte Heimann

Director Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

GIZ Turkey

By:

Renewables Academy (RENAC) AG

Albrecht Tiedemann

Schönhauser Allee 10-11

10119 Berlin

Germany

E-mail: [email protected]

Berlin, December 15, 2015

Turkish Grid Study

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Table of Contents

1 Seminar objectives ............................................................................................................... 3

2 Seminar content ................................................................................................................... 4

3 Seminar evaluation by participants ....................................................................................... 5

4 Seminar results / conclusions ............................................................................................... 8

4.1 Generals aspects and outcome of workshop on “Turkish long-term grid-integration study for wind and photovoltaics” ............................................................................................................... 8

4.2 Conclusions of studying scenarios for a Turkish grid study..................................................... 8

4.2.1 Reference and target years .............................................................................................. 8

4.2.2 Wind energy and photovoltaics development in Turkey ................................................ 8

4.2.3 Raster for feed-in time series .......................................................................................... 9

4.2.4 Time series for raster points ............................................................................................ 9

4.3 Grid analysis ............................................................................................................................ 9

4.4 Energy economic analysis ...................................................................................................... 11

4.5 Research consortium, steering committee and independent review team ......................... 12

5 RENAC’s recommendations ................................................................................................ 13

5.1 Suggested content and milestones for a Turkish grid study ................................................. 13

5.1.1 Leading body and involvement of other institutions via a steering committee ............ 13

5.1.2 Questions to be addressed in a Turkish grid study ........................................................ 14

5.1.3 Research consortium and independent review team ................................................... 16

5.1.4 Costs estimation ............................................................................................................ 16

5.1.5 Time schedule ................................................................................................................ 16

5.2 Future training requirements ................................................................................................ 17

Attachment 1: Photo documentation .......................................................................................... 18

Reliable wind and PV capacity – probabilistic methodology ............................................................ 18

Short-term wind and PV power forecast implementation ............................................................... 20

Seminar participants ......................................................................................................................... 21

Turkish grid study working groups .................................................................................................... 24

Turkish grid study committees .......................................................................................................... 25

Certificates ........................................................................................................................................ 26

Group photo ...................................................................................................................................... 27

Turkish Grid Study

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1 Seminar objectives

GIZ Turkey is working on the project “Promotion of On-Grid Renewable Energies in Turkey”. The

project aims to help build the capacity of Turkish institutions to utilize German and international

experience in the renewable energy sector and to implement targets on a sustainable basis.

As part of this project, GIZ commissioned RENAC to conduct a 3-day seminar on “Wind Power and

Photovoltaic Integration into Power Systems” from 9 to 11 November 2015. The main objective of

the seminar was to train experts from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, from

transmission and distribution grid operators. The training focused on the management aspects of grid

integration of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power (2 days, lectures and exercises) and on how to

develop a roadmap for grid integration (1-day interactive workshop on scope of a Turkish long-term

grid integration study for wind and PV).

RENAC conducted the seminar in Ankara for managers and decision-makers from the Turkish

Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, as well as experts from the operators of the Turkish

transmission and distribution grid.

The seminar language was English with simultaneous translation into Turkish. Seminar material

provided by RENAC was in English. GIZ-Turkey translated the material into Turkish and distributed

the material to the seminar participants. 21 persons attended the seminar.

Mr. Albrecht Tiedemann was the seminar lecturer. He has been Project Director at the Renewables

Academy (RENAC) AG since 2009. He is responsible inter alia for trainings on grid integration of

renewables (balancing power and capacity credit calculations, short-term power forecasting for wind

and solar). From 2003 to 2009, Mr. Tiedemann was Project Director at the German Energy Agency

(dena) GmbH and he was executively involved in the integration of renewable energies into the

German energy supply (dena Grid Study I and II).

Learning objectives of the seminar were:

Learn about the fundamentals of grid-connected wind power and photovoltaics (technology,

feed-in characteristics, grid-connection, active and reactive power provision, fault ride

through)

Understand the impacts of grid-connected wind power and grid-connected photovoltaics on

power system flexibility (residual load approach and flexibility options)

Be able to understand and generate wind and PV feed-in time series for a Turkish grid study

Learn about probabilistic balancing power calculation methodologies for wind and

photovoltaics, short-term wind and photovoltaic power forecasting and forecasting errors, as

well as a probabilistic generation adequacy methodologies for wind and photovoltaics (firm

capacity for generation expansion planning)

Discuss the basic aspects a Turkish long-term grid integration study for wind and

photovoltaics (roadmap).

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This Seminar Report includes the evaluation of workshop, the results of group work and the outcome

of the final workshop, including possible milestones / next steps for a Turkish grid study.

2 Seminar content

During Days 1 and 2 participants attended lectures and solved exercises. On Day 3 participants

worked in two working groups on the Turkish grid study.

The seminar covered the following topics (see also Table 1):

Introduction, variable renewable technology, wind and photovoltaics (2 hours)

System impacts of variable wind and photovoltaic power and flexibility of power systems (4

hours)

Short-term power generation forecasting for wind and photovoltaics (2 hours)

Generation adequacy of wind and photovoltaics – capacity credit calculations (4 hours)

Probabilistic balancing power calculations (4 hours)

Turkish long-term grid-integration study for wind and photovoltaics (7 hours, group work and

presentation of results)

Evaluation, certificates and final remarks (1 hour).

In addition to the PowerPoint slide printouts, RENAC distributed Excel files and exercise sheets to the

participants. During the seminar RENAC asked the participants to work in small groups to solve

exercises and to discuss specific topics covered in the lectures. RENAC answered individual questions

from participants and wrote additional explanations on a flip chart (see attachment with photo

documentation).

Module Topics

Introduction, variable renewable technology, wind and photovoltaics (2 hours)

Opening remarks (welcome and introduction of participants)

Wind power generator types

Exercise: Wind turbine power curves

PV inverters and maximum power point trackers

Exercise: Power point tracking of PV inverters

System impacts of variable wind and photovoltaic power and flexibility of power systems (4 hours)

Variability challenge

Residual load (net load),

Exercises: Residual load analysis

Flexibility options

Flexibility of power stations

Wind and photovoltaic long-term feed-in time series for gird studies

Turkish Grid Study

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Module Topics

Short-term power generation forecasting for wind and photovoltaics (2 hours)

Numerical weather models

Wind power forecast (physical and statistical approach)

PV power forecasting

Forecasting errors

Forecast providers (examples)

Costs

Discussion: Forecast implementation

Generation adequacy of wind and photovoltaics – capacity credit calculations (4 hours)

Generation adequacy (firm generation)

Capacity credit calculation algorithm

Exercise: Capacity credit calculation

Case study results

Smoothing effect

Probabilistic balancing power calculations (4 hours)

Types of reserves

Exercise: Power plant outage distribution

Load, wind and PV forecast error

Balancing power calculation with probabilistic approach

Exercise: Combined probability distribution

Balancing power provision and market effects

Grid study strategy exercise / workshop (7 hours)

German Grid Study and development of wind and solar in Germany

Development of basic aspects of a long-term strategy for a Turkish Power System Integration Study with high share of wind power and photovoltaic

Group work: Participants discuss possible solutions in small working groups and present the results in the seminar

Working group presentations and discussion

Evaluation, certificates and final remarks (1 hour)

Seminar evaluation forms

Certificates

Final remarks

Table 1: Seminar content

3 Seminar evaluation by participants

The training was evaluated by the participants. RENAC collected the filled-in evaluation forms (15

evaluation forms).

The seminar participants evaluated the seminar organization by GIZ, the course content, the quality

of translation, the final workshop on the outline of a Turkish grid study and the lectures.

The participants could answer the questions in the evaluation form by allocating a ranking grade,

from grade 1 (very good) through to grade 5 (very poor).

The results of the evaluation were as follows:

All average evaluations were in the range of 1.2 to 2.3.

The lecturer Albrecht Tiedemann got an average ranking grade of 1.4.

Answers to the question “what was the highlight of the course?” were:

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Integration of RES into the Turkish power system

Calculation of balancing power needs with uncertain renewable power generation

It was quite a good course and the lecturer covered the topics well.

Participants proposed the following topics for further seminars (being of the opinion that these

topics were not covered or not adequately covered):

Renewables in the restoration process of a power supply system

Managing solar eclipses

Training aimed at improving transmission and distribution systems and planning procedures

Real system operation

Grid-connection simulations for renewables for electrical engineers who work on system

planning.

The following two tables summarize the outcome of the evaluation. The following tables show details

and written comments by participants.

Table 2: Evaluation - General aspects of the seminar and the final workshop

Communication from GIZ before the course 1.7

Provision of information / material 1.6

Training location 1.4

Training equipment 1.6

Food (lunch) and coffee 1.6

Assistance / friendliness of staff 1.4

Match between the actual course and your personal needs and expectations 2.2

Balance between theory and practice 2.0

Rating of your personal learning progress 2.3

Available time for group work/ exercises / discussions 1.9

Translation of slides and course material 1.2

Simultaneous translation 1.2

Topics of workshop 1.8

Agenda of workshop 1.6

Working atmosphere in working groups 1.3

Time to present results of working groups 1.8

Outcome and result of workshop 1.9

Average 1.7

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Table 3: Evaluation - Lecturer Albrecht Tiedemann

Knowledge of subjects taught 1.5

Teaching skills (understandability of subjects taught) 1.3

Professional appearance 1.3

English language skills 1.3

Responsiveness to your questions 1.4

Use of materials / practical exercises 1.4

Table 4: Evaluation - Seminar organization by GIZ

Very good

Good Average Poor Very poor

Averages

Communication from GIZ before the course 7 4 3

1.7

Provision of information material 5 9 1.6

Training location 8 6 1.4

Training equipment 6 8 1.6

Food (Lunch) & coffee 5 9 1.6

Assistance / friendliness of staff 9 5 1.4

Table 5: Evaluation - Seminar content

Very good

Good Average Poor Very poor

Average

Match between the actual course and your personal needs and expectations 3 6 4 1

2.2

Balance between theory and practice 5 5 3 1 2.0

Rating of your personal learning progress 1 8 5 2.3

Available time for group work / discussion 4 8 2 1.9

Table 6: Quality of translation

Very good

Good Average Poor Very poor

Average

Translation of slides and course material 11 2 1.2

Simultaneous translation 11 2 1.2

Table 7: Evaluation - Final workshop

Very good

Good Average Poor Very poor

Average

Topics of workshop 4 7 2 1.8

Agenda of workshop 5 8 1.6

Working atmosphere in working groups 9 4 1.3

Time to present results of working groups 5 6 2 1.8

Outcome and result of workshop 3 8 2 1.9

GIZ Turkey

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4 Seminar results / conclusions

4.1 Generals aspects and outcome of workshop on “Turkish long-term grid-integration study for

wind and photovoltaics”

RENAC began the workshop by providing comprehensive information on the development of wind

energy and photovoltaics in Germany, grid-connection agreement procedures in Germany and on

details of the grid studies conducted by the German Energy Agency (dena). Finally, RENAC explained

the questions to be addressed by the two working groups.

The following table lists the names of the working group participants:

Working Group 1

Ali Osman, YILMAZ, Oytum ALICI, Hilal ARSLAN, Sonnur BAYAZITOGLU, Umit Yasar DOLU, Osman KURTUL and Zafer MERTOGLU

Working Group 2

Mustafa ERKEC, Gökhan ATABEY, Murat AKCIN, Alper GUZELER, Muhammed Necip ERIM, Cem SALMA and Can KECELI

Table 8: Working group participants

Each working group discussed the questions for about 3.5 hours and then delivered their opinions in

a 15-minute oral presentation. The following is a summary of the questions and the opinions of the

working groups. (For editorial reasons, RENAC has summarized and/or resorted the order of working

group results and also added statements given in the oral presentations.).

4.2 Conclusions of studying scenarios for a Turkish grid study

4.2.1 Reference and target years

Question:

What could be the reference year and the target years for the Turkish grid study scenario

(e.g. reference year 2014, target years 2023 and 2033)?

Opinion of Working Groups 1 and 2:

2014 should be the reference year

2023 should be the target year.

4.2.2 Wind energy and photovoltaics development in Turkey

Question:

Is detailed information for the following topics already available (who did the study, is

the data available?): CURRENT MARKET ASSESSMENT WITH REGARD TO PERSPECTIVES

FOR WIND POWER EXPANSION IN TURKEY and EXISTING SCENARIOS REGARDING

DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY for WIND POWER and PHOTOVOLTAIC? If not, specify tasks

for a consortium of scientists.

Opinion of Working Groups 1 and 2:

According to the Strategy Paper of Security Supply 2009, the share of renewables in

energy mix should reach at least 30%.

20,000 MW wind power and 6,000 MW solar capacity are targeted for the 2023.

Further information is available at the regulator’s website (EMRA)

GIZ Turkey

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For concentrating solar power (CSP), wind power and photovoltaics, the regional

resource zones should be examined to identify the potential productivity of individual

zones.

4.2.3 Raster for feed-in time series

Question:

How should a raster be created for Turkey in order to develop feed-in time series (fixed

raster 50 km by 50 km, raster according to grid nodes of the transmission grid, or raster

according to other criteria)? What should be the time steps of the feed-in time series (1

hour, 30 minutes, 15 minutes)?

Opinion of Working Group 1:

A raster for Turkey should take the grid nodes of the transmission grid into account.

Fixed quadratic raster km by km does not make sense because the power feed-in to the

transmission grid is of most interest and grid nodes are not equally distributed around

the country.

1-hour feed-in time steps should be used.

Opinion of Working Group 2:

Nevertheless, over time, a 50km by 50km raster may be considered in connection with

an increased use of PV and wind power.

The focus should be on connection points to current transmission network because of

non-uniform distribution of energy generation and consumption in the country.

4.2.4 Time series for raster points

Question:

Is detailed information for the following topics already available (who did the study or

has data available?): for GENERATION OF TIME SERIES FOR THE FEED-IN OF ELECTRICITY

FOR THE REFERENCE AND THE TARGET YEAR FOR RASTER POINTS OF TURKEY (WIND

POWER and PHOTOVOLTAIC)? If not, specify tasks for a consortium of scientists.

Opinion of Working Group 1:

The information on hourly generation data for the renewables could be gathered from

transmission and / or distribution grid operators’ databases.

Opinion of Working Group 2:

Currently, 1-hour feed-in time series are available.

However, switching to 15-minutes time series is considered to be technically and

economically desirable.

4.3 Grid analysis

Question:

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Discuss the following aspects, whether they are important for a Turkish grid study, and

specify tasks for a consortium of scientists: TECHNICAL OPTIONS FOR THE TRANSMISSION

OF WIND POWER AND PHOTOVOLTAICS FROM CENTRES OF WIND OR PV TO THE LOAD

CENTRES FOR THE REFERENCE AND THE TARGET YEAR; GRID-CONNECTION

REQUIREMENTS FOR WIND FARMS AND PHOTOVOLTAICS (STATIC AND DYNAMIC

STABILITY); LOAD FLOW ANALYSIS FOR THE TRANSMISSION GRID (AND DISTRIBUTION

GRID?) FOR THE REFERENCE AND THE TARGET YEAR; IDENTIFYING NON-TRANSMISSIBLE

POWER OF WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC; DETERMINING THE GRID EXPANSION NEEDS FOR

THE TRANSMISSION GRID (AND THE DISTRIBUTION GRID?); SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR

TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES; SYSTEM SERVICES (REQUIREMENTS AND NEEDS) and

ECONOMIC EVALUATION.

Opinion of Working Group 1:

Technical options for the transmission of power from centres of renewable power

generation to the load centres should be assessed for the years 2014 and 2023.

Grid-connection requirements for wind farms and photovoltaic plants should be taken

into account. For CSPs and some wind farms, grid-connection requirements should be

separately investigated.

Load flow analysis for both the transmission and the distribution grids could be done for

the years 2014 and through to 2023. The change of load flows due to power feed-in from

wind and photovoltaic is important for the grid planning.

The grid expansion needs for the transmission grid and the distribution grid should be

determined.

A sensitivity analysis for transmission technologies could be taken into consideration.

System services should be studied in terms of voltage and frequency support, system

restoration following outages/faults, and islanding capabilities with high penetration of

renewables.

A mathematical model for the transmission system should be developed. This model

should analyze the dynamic transients for the Turkish electricity system.

New transmission technologies should be evaluated, i.e. long distance direct current

lines from centres of generation to load centres.

The cost of integration of renewables into the grid system should be studied.

Opinion of Working Group 2:

Grid planning is important in order to achieve the renewable energy objectives. Regular

load flow analyses are being performed by current distribution centre.

Calculation of how much renewable energy may be connected to the current grid for the

year 2023 targets is required.

Power plants should be planned close to points of consumption; otherwise study should

compare AC and DC transmission technologies and how to integrated DC into the Turkish

power supply system (AC versus DC).

GIZ Turkey

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Development of production estimation data regarding wind power plans (WPP) and

small power producers (SPP).

Shared record keeping for current generation data of power plants and necessity for

establishing statistical data?

How should the coordination between grid planning, investment and operation centres

be established?

Is it possible to control the system through regional load distribution centres?

Which method can be used to determine the capacity of grid-connected renewable

energy?

How should studies on the connection of off-shore power plants to the system be carried

out?

Reactive control mechanism in WPPs and SPPs.

Role of WPPs and SPPs on system recovery, stable operation ranges.

Tasks of National and Regional Distributors and need for staff in WPP and SPP

management (wind and solar power desk?)

4.4 Energy economic analysis

Question:

• Discuss the following aspects, whether they are important for a Turkish grid study, and

specify tasks for a consortium of scientists: BALANCING POWER REQUIREMENTS AND

PROVISION; IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF FORECASTS OF WIND POWER AND

PHOTOVOLTAIC FEED-IN AND IT’S EFFECT ON BALANCING POWER PROVISION;

FLEXIBILITY MEASURES - TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL POTENTIAL OF CONVENTIONAL

POWER PLANTS, DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT and STORAGE APPLICATIONS; MODEL-

BASED ANALYSIS OF THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN TURKEY FOR THE REFERENCE AND THE

TARGET YEAR and ECONOMIC EVALUATION.

Opinion of Working Group 1:

Balancing power requirements and provision should be separately studied for both wind

and solar power. How much will be needed in future? What is the best solution for

reduction of balancing power costs?

New approaches related to the quality of forecasts of wind and PV feed-in could be

studied. Integration of existing RITM (Wind Monitoring and Forecast Centre) operations

with the system operation of TSO could be investigated. How could a new PV feed-in

forecasting capacity be built?

In terms of technical and financial potential of conventional power plants, demand-side

management (DSM) and storage applications, and flexibility measures should be

identified. Participation of DSM in the balancing power market and participation of DSM

in the primary and secondary frequency control reserves could be studied. Drafting of

GIZ Turkey

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technical requirements and financial aspects of storage as a provider of system reserves

could be done.

Economic efficiency and cost effectiveness of storage facilities, DSM and high

penetration of renewables could be investigated.

Opinion of Working Group 2:

• Which energy storage systems and features should be consider, from the point of view of

system reliability?

• Should distributed generation, distributed storage and demand-side management be

provided by focusing on smart grid investments?

• Determination and elimination of negative effects and preventive measures.

• Use of WPPs and SPPs at sudden load changes, impact of these load changes on WPPs

and SPPs and balancing mechanism.

• Role of demand response and storage systems on WPP and SPP management.

4.5 Research consortium, steering committee and independent review team

Working Groups 1 and 2 proposed that the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources as the leading

body for the Turkish grid study. MENR, TSOs, DSOs and the Regulator should be involved in the

steering committee. The research consortium should include TUBITAK (Scientific and Technical

Research Centre of Turkey), regional development agencies, universities, institutions and R&D

companies.

An independent review team should assess the scientific quality of intermediate results and reports,

and send recommendations to the steering committee. The Turkish Wind Energy Association

(TÜREB), International Solar Energy Society, Turkey Section (GÜNDER) and academics could be

members of the review team. The following figure shows institutions that could be involved in a

Turkish grid study:

Figure 1: Proposed institutions for involvement in the Turkish grid study

GIZ Turkey

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5 RENAC’s recommendations

5.1 Suggested content and milestones for a Turkish grid study

RENAC recommends that the crucial question of the Turkish grid study is: “How does the power

supply system need to change to be able to integrate high amounts of wind and solar generated

power?”. This question implies already the use of fluctuating renewable energy power plants and

their growing importance for the power supply. Given the political target of a sustainable, reliable

and affordable power supply, this is the right question to ask in a grid study.

A Turkish grid study shall provide decision makers with relevant information on strategic options for

the development of the entire Turkish power supply system with large amounts of wind and solar

power.

The Turkish grid study shall develop plans for Turkey’s entire power supply system for the year 2023

and 2033 with an outlook 25 years ahead because investments in the energy sector generally have a

long-term character. It shall take into account the most probable scenarios for the regional

development of wind power, photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar thermal (CSP) , as well as the

development of the load, the transmission grid, storage and other power stations.

The Turkish grid study shall provide detailed information on how existing and new thermal power

generation capacities, transmission grids, demand-side management, storage and power markets, as

well as variable renewables such as wind and PV, can contribute to the transformation towards a

flexible and climate-friendly power supply system.

The Turkish grid study shall take into account the ability of wind turbines and solar systems to provide

a wide range of system services that are needed to maintain grid stability.

For the roadmap of a Turkish grid study the following milestones are essential:

1. Identification of the leading body and definition of the involvement of other institutions

2. Agreement on questions to be addressed in a Turkish grid study

3. Definition of a time schedule for the Turkish grid study

4. Identification of a research consortium and an independent review team

5. Decision upon financing and costs

RENAC recommends that proposals and questions are taken into account, which were developed by

both working groups of the GIZ-RENAC-workshop “Turkish long-term grid integration study for wind

and photovoltaic”.

5.1.1 Leading body and involvement of other institutions via a steering committee

RENAC recommends that the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) takes the lead for the

Turkish grid study. In addition, the following institutions should be involved in a steering committee:

transmission grid operator (TEİAŞ),

GIZ Turkey

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distribution grid operators1 with a large amount of wind power and photovoltaic to be

connected to their systems,

Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA),

Scientific and Technical Research Centre of Turkey (TUBITAK),

Turkish Wind Energy Association (TÜREB) and

International Solar Energy Society, Turkey Section (GÜNDER).

5.1.2 Questions to be addressed in a Turkish grid study

A Turkish grid study shall cover three parts: 1) scenarios 2) grid analysis and 3) flexibility options

analysis:

Part 1 “scenarios”:

The scenario part shall take into account the review of existing scenarios regarding wind

energy and solar power development in Turkey. It shall develop new time series for the feed-

in of electricity from photovoltaic, concentrating solar power and wind power for the years

2023 and 2033 for each raster area in Turkey.

The resolution of the raster area shall take transmission grid nodes and a certain amount of

square kilometre (e.g. 25 km x 25 km) into account. The time resolution for these scenarios

shall be 15 minutes. These time series shall be the input for the second and third part of the

study (grid analysis and flexibility). Special attention has to be paid to “extreme events” such

as annual peak demand and long periods with low power generation from wind and solar.

Part 2 “grid analysis “:

The grid part shall cover a detailed analysis on the static and dynamic stability of the

transmission grid in Turkey for the years 2023 and 2033. The input data for this are the time

series of part 1 “scenarios”.

The load flow analysis shall include alternative technical options to transport power from

centres of wind and solar power generation to centres of load (voltage increase of existing

lines, dynamic line rating, high temperature conductors, very high voltage direct current lines,

gas insulated transmission lines, underground cables).

Current grid code requirements and the need for further grid code development shall be

considered.

The study shall calculate the amount of non-transmissible power due to grid congestion

under the given scenarios and propose detailed grid extension measures for the years 2023

1 Akdeniz EDC, Akedaş Electricity Distribution Corp., Aras EDC, Aydem Electricity Distribution Corp.,

Boğaziçi EDC, Çalık Yeşilırmak EDC, Çamlıbel Electricity Distribution Corp., Çoruh EDC, Dicle EDC,

Enerjisa Başkent EDC, Fırat EDC, Gediz EDC, İstanbul Anadolu Yakası EDC, Kayseri ve Civarı Electricity

Distribution Turk Corp., Meram EDC, Osmangazi EDC, Sakarya EDC, Toroslar EDC, Trakya EDC, Uludağ

EDC and/or Van Gölü EDC (EDC = Electricity Distribution Company)

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and 2033. These grid extension measures shall be based on the comparison of the alternative

technical options.

The study shall analyse the need for ancillary services such as balancing power (probabilistic

balancing power calculation methodology) and voltage control. The voltage control analysis

shall consider the reactive power provision by wind power and photovoltaic too.

Finally, the study shall calculate the investment and operational cost of alternative technical

options, grid extension measures and ancillary services and take sensitivity analyses into

account.

Part 3 “flexibility options analysis”:

The flexibility part shall analyse different options to increase the flexibility of the entire power

supply system and compare their costs. The question to be answered shall be “How can the

system flexibility be increased to operate it cost efficient with large amounts of wind and

solar power”. The prerequisite for this analysis shall be that wind and solar power have

priority access to the system.

The cost analysis shall take into account the investment, the operational and the external

costs (environmental costs / health costs / resource depletion costs). To compare measures it

shall calculate the levelised costs of flexibility2.

This part of the study shall develop and compare flexibility measures for the Turkish power

supply system for the years 2023 and 2033 to

o increase the flexibility of thermal power stations (investments in peak and middle

load power stations instead in base load power stations, upgrading existing power

plants)

o upgrade and extend the grid,

o manage loads (demand side management on spot / reserve markets, flexible tariffs,

household / energy-intensive industrial sector and transport sector) and

o store power for times with low wind and low solar resource availability.

A strategic outlook on the development of the Turkish power supply system for the next 25

years shall be part of the flexibility analysis.

Reports:

Reports by the research consortium:

draft and final report with scenarios and detailed assumptions for the grid / flexibility

part and

draft and final grid / flexibility report.

Reports by the independent review team:

2 Methodology see International Energy Agency „The Power of Transformation“, Paris, 2014, page 197 ff.

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Assessment of the draft scenario/assumption report

Assessment of the final scenario/assumption report

Assessment of the draft grid / flexibility report

Assessment of the final grid / flexibility report

5.1.3 Research consortium and independent review team

The research consortium shall include companies/institutions that have adequate professional

knowledge on:

the development of wind, solar and load scenarios that are temporally and spatially highly

resolved,

static and dynamic grid analysis with large amount of wind and photovoltaic feed-in and

the development and assessment of flexibility options.

The members of the review team shall be independent from the research consortium. They shall

ensure a high quality of the study outcome. The shall report to the steering committee. They shall

have access to the draft reports and to data used by the research consortium, a sufficient budget to

fulfil their tasks and adequate professional knowledge to check and ensure that

methods used to carry out the analysis are scientifically and technically valid,

data are generally appropriate and that the data quality is adequate,

calculation procedures used are adequate, scientifically and technically valid, adequately

documented and justified when necessary and

interpretations are in accordance with the goal of the study and the identified limitations.

5.1.4 Costs estimation

Estimations for the costs of a Turkish grid study covering the suggestions of chapter 5.1.1 to 5.1.3 are

only possible with some uncertainty at this initial stage. Owing to the complexity of the tasks and the

target to achieve reliable results RENAC estimates the costs as follows:

Approximately 1.75 million Euro for the research consortium

The independent review team should have a budget in the range of 5% to 10% of the

research consortium.

5.1.5 Time schedule

A time schedule for a Turkish grid study depends on decisions to be taken locally. The content of the

study could be agreed within some months. The access to data will probably take more time

especially if the study shall take into account realistic transmission and distribution grid data and

whether the independent review team will have access to this data and will get the right to verify the

draft results (further details see chapter 5.1.3). The time needed to complete the study will be

approximately 20 months.

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5.2 Future training requirements

During the GIZ-RENAC seminar participants asked a range questions concerning renewable energy.

Based on these, RENAC recommends to focus on the following three topics for further trainings:

1. Large PV system planning and grid connection (fundamental components of a large grid-

connected PV, spatial planning, yield estimation, PV project development, system planning

and engineering, construction and operation, important technical aspects such as

component selection, grid connection, but also operation and maintenance and cash-flow

analysis methods); target group to be engineers; duration should be 3 days.

2. Technical aspects of grid connected photovoltaic and wind power systems connected to the

transmission and distribution grid (main components, quality standards, certification,

frequency control, voltage control (e.g. reactive power provision, fault ride through), grid

connection equipment, monitoring, controlling, grid codes for low / medium / high-voltage

grids); target group to be engineers; duration should be 3 days.

3. Follow-up workshop on a Turkish grid study (content, outline, questions to be answered,

data to be used, scenarios for the power supply system, grid extension and upgrade,

flexibility options, economic considerations); target groups to be ministries, planning

departments of transmission and distribution grid operators, meteorological institutes, and

wind and PV industry associations; duration should be 2 days.

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Attachment 1: Photo documentation

Reliable wind and PV capacity – probabilistic methodology

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Short-term wind and PV power forecast implementation

Other topics

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Seminar participants

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Summary of Day 1 activities:

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Technician:

GIZ-Turkey:

Translators:

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Turkish grid study working groups

- Working Group 1:

Working Group 2:

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Turkish grid study committees

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Certificates

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Group photo