seminar teoria relatiilor internationale-05.11.09

8/13/2019 Seminar Teoria Relatiilor Internationale-05.11.09

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5 NOIEMBRIE 2009

TEORIA RELATIILOR INTERNATIONALE-SEMINAR-

Regime Change and Its Limits

By Richard N. Haass

FromForeign Affairs, Juy!Au"us# 2005

Summary$ So %ar, #h& Bush admi'is#ra#io' has sho(' i# (oud i)& #o r&so*& i#s +ro&ms (i#h

Nor#h or&a a'd Ira' #h& sam& (ay i# did (i#h Ira$ #hrou"h r&"im& cha'"&. I# is &asy #o s&&

(hy. Bu# #h& s#ra#&"y is u'i)&y #o (or), a# &as# 'o# uic)y &'ou"h. A much road&r a++roach-- i'*o*i'" #a)s, sa'c#io's, a'd #h& #hr&a# o% %orc& -- is '&&d&d.

Richard N. Haass is President of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was Director of the State

Department's Policy Planning Staff from !!" to !!#. $his article is drawn from his recently

pu%lished %oo& $he (pportunity) America's *oment to Alter History's Course.

ARME/ AN/ /ANERO1S

A#hou"h a #hird o% #h& a3is o% &*i is 'o( occu+i&d y 1.S. %orc&s, #h& o#h&r #(o #hirds --

Nor#h or&a a'd Ira' -- r&mai' c&ar #hr&a#s #o 1.S. i'#&r&s#s. 4o'sid&r Nor#h or&a$ i' F&ruary2005, yo'"ya'" a''ou'c&d #ha# i# had 'uc&ar (&a+o's, a'd i# is 'o( #hou"h# #o ha*& s&*&rao% #h&m, or a# &as# #h& ma#&ria #o uid #h&m. O*&r #im&, i% #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s do&s 'o#hi'", Nor#h

or&a6s ars&'a (i sur&y "ro(, as (i #h& amou'# o% i#s %issi& ma#&ria. 7h& r&su#s o% #his

"ro(#h (i & d&s#aii8i'" a'd +o#&'#iay disas#rous$ a si8a& Nor#h or&a' 'uc&ar ars&'a

mi"h# (& s#imua#& simiar (&a+o's +ro"rams i' o#h Ja+a' a'd Sou#h or&a, dimi'ishi'" #h&r&"io'6s s#aii#y. 7h& r&+&rcussio's coud aso s+r&ad %ar &yo'd Nor#h&as# Asia i% yo'"ya'"

d&cid&s #o s& i#s '&( (&a+o's or 'uc&ar %u& %or hard curr&'cy -- as i# has (i#h dru"s a'd

missi& #&ch'oo"y i' #h& +as#.

Ira', %or i#s +ar#, aso has a 'uc&ar (&a+o's +ro"ram, (hich may 'o# & as ad*a'c&d as Nor#h

or&a6s u# is much %ur#h&r ao'" #ha' amos# a'yo'& r&ai8&d o'y a %&( y&ars a"o. Buidi'" o'&%%or#s #ha# &"a' u'd&r #h& shah, Ira' has ass&m&d ma'y o% #h& &&m&'#s '&&d&d %or a

ura'ium-&'richm&'# +ro"ram (i#h mii#ary +o#&'#ia. Ma"'i%yi'" ashi'"#o'6s co'c&r', Ira' hasa his#ory o% co'c&ai'" i#s 'uc&ar +ro"ram, as (& as su++or#i'" #&rrorism a'd d&*&o+i'"

m&dium-ra'"& missi&s.

7hus %ar, #h& Bush admi'is#ra#io' has co'sis#&'#y sho(' #ha# i# (oud ra#h&r r&so*& a o% #h&s&

cha&'"&s #hrou"h r&"im& cha'"& i' 7&hra' a'd yo'"ya'". I# is 'o# hard #o %a#hom (hy$

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r&"im& cha'"& is &ss dis#as#&%u #ha' di+omacy a'd &ss da'"&rous #ha' i*i'" (i#h '&( 'uc&ar

s#a#&s. 7h&r& is o'y o'& +ro&m$ i# is hi"hy u'i)&y #o ha*& #h& d&sir&d &%%&c# soo' &'ou"h.

RE:O;17ION AN/ E:O;17ION

R&"im& cha'"& ao(s a s#a#& #o so*& i#s +ro&ms (i#h a'o#h&r s#a#& y r&mo*i'" #h& o%%&'si*&r&"im& #h&r& a'd r&+aci'" i# (i#h a &ss o%%&'si*& o'&. I' #h& cas& o% Nor#h or&a or Ira', #his

(oud m&a' i's#ai'" a r&"im& #ha# &i#h&r (oud 'o# +ursu& 'uc&ar (&a+o's or, i% i# did, (oud

& so di%%&r&'# i' charac#&r #ha# #h& +ros+&c# (oud & much &ss (orrisom&.

1si'" r&"im& cha'"& as a +oicy +a'ac&a is 'o#hi'" '&(. Nor ar& #h& cha&'"&s +os&d yr&+r&ssi*& cou'#ri&s +oss&ssi'" #hr&a#&'i'" (&a+o'ry< #h&s& ar& c&r#ai'y 'o# &3cusi*&y +os#-

4od ar or +os#-S&+#&m&r == +h&'om&'a. I'd&&d, #h& 4od ar i#s&% ca' & u'd&rs#ood as a

+roo'"&d co'%ro'#a#io' (i#h a s#a#& o% +r&cis&y #his sor#< #h& So*i 1'io' #hr&a#&'&d #h&1'i#&d S#a#&s y (ha# i# did &yo'd i#s ord&rs a'd o%%&'d&d Am&rica's y (ha# i# did (i#hi'

#h&m. So had Na8i &rma'y a'd im+&ria Ja+a' &%or& i#.

7h& Roos&* admi'is#ra#io' u#ima#&y chos& #o d&a (i#h &rma'y a'd Ja+a' #hrou"h a +oicy

o% r&"im& cha'"&, s&&)i'" 'o# sim+y #o d&%&a# #h&m o' #h& a##&%i&d a'd r&*&rs& #h&irco'u&s#s u# #o co'#i'u& (ar u'#i #h& r&"im&s i' B&ri' a'd 7o)yo (&r& ous#&d a'd somhi'"

much #&r (as %irmy &'sco'c&d. I# #oo) y&ars o% arm&d occu+a#io' a'd i'#rusi*& i'*o*&m&'#

i' #h& i'#&r'a +oi#ics o% o#h cou'#ri&s -- (ha# is )'o(' #oday as 'a#io' uidi'" -- #o achi&*ha# a##&r o>&c#i*&.

7h& 1.S. a++roach #o #h& So*i 1'io', ho(&*&r, (as mar)&dy di%%&r&'#. A%#&r ord ar II,

(h&' Mosco( &m&r"&d as ashi'"#o'6s +ri'ci+a "oa ri*a a'd #hr&a#, roac) &cam&

somhi'" o% a +o+uar co'c&+#. ? #h& +o#&'#ia %or a 'uc&ar (ar i' (hich #h&r& (oud & 'o

(i''&rs r&"ard&ss o% (ho s#ruc) %irs# #&m+&r&d 1.S. +oicy. S&&)i'" r&"im& cha'"&, or roac),(as d&&m&d #oo ris)y, &*&' r&c)&ss, "i*&' (ha# coud r&su# i% a d&s+&ra#& So*i &ad&rshi+

ash&d ou# (i#h a #h& %orc& a# i#s dis+osa.

Sim+y acui&sci'" #o So*i &ha*ior a# hom& a'd aroad, ho(&*&r, (as 'o# acc&+#a& #oashi'"#o' &i#h&r. 7h& r&su# (as a +oicy o% co'#ai'm&'#, (hich &or"& &''a' @#h&' a 1.S.

di+oma# i' Mosco( h&+&d %ormua#& i' his o'" #&&"ram, (hich u#ima#&y %ou'd i#s (ay

i'#o #his ma"a8i'& i' =9C. 4o'#ai'm&'# (as '&*&r as mod&s# a +oicy as i#s cri#ics a&"&d.A#hou"h i# +r&scri&d r&sis#i'" Mosco(6s a##&m+#s #o s+r&ad commu'ism a'd &3+a'd So*i

i'%u&'c&, i# aso had a s&co'd, &ss ci#&d dim&'sio'.

I# is &'#ir&y +ossi&, &''a' (ro#&, %or #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s #o i'%u&'c& y i#s ac#io's #h&i'#&r'a d&*&o+m&'#s, o#h (i#hi' Russia a'd #hrou"hou# #h& i'#&r'a#io'a 4ommu'is#mo*&m&'#. ... 7h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s has i# i' i#s +o(&r #o i'cr&as& &'ormousy #h& s#rai's u'd&r

(hich So*i +oicy mus# o+&ra#&, #o %orc& u+o' #h& r&mi' a %ar "r&a#&r d&"r&& o% mod&ra#io'

a'd circums+&c#io' #ha' D#h& r&mi' has had #o os&r*& i' r&c&'# y&ars, a'd i' #his (ay #o+romo#& #&'d&'ci&s (hich mus# &*&'#uay %i'd #h&ir ou# i' &i#h&r #h& r&a)-u+ or #h& "radua

m&o(i'" o% So*i +o(&r.

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I' o#h&r (ords, co'#ai'm&'#6s s&co'd, suordi'a#& "oa (as r&"im& cha'"&. I# &*&'#uay

achi&*&d #his &'d #hrou"h i'cr&m&'#a m&a's. Bu# #his mhod (as so "radua @i# #oo) mor& #ha'

0 y&ars #o succ&&d #ha# i# coud #&r & u'd&rs#ood as r&"im& &*ou#io', a'd i# #oo) a ac)s&a# #o co'#ai'i'" So*i ad*a'c&s. h&r&as r&"im& cha'"& @as #h& Bush admi'is#ra#io' us&s #h&

#&rm #&'ds #o & dir&c# a'd imm&dia#& a'd #o i'*o*& #h& us& o% mii#ary %orc& or co*&r# ac#io',

as (& as a##&m+#s #o isoa#& o#h +oi#icay a'd &co'omicay #h& "o*&r'm&'# i' u&s#io',r&"im& &*ou#io' #&'ds #o & i'dir&c# a'd "radua a'd #o i'*o*& #h& us& o% %or&i"' +oicy #oos

o#h&r #ha' mii#ary %orc&.

Ad*oca#&s o% r&"im& cha'"& "&'&ray r&>&c# mos#, somim&s a'y, d&ai'"s (i#h #h& r&"im& i'

u&s#io', &s# #h& +roc&ss o% i'#&rac#io' or &'"a"&m&'# som&ho( u##r&ss #h& o%%&'di'""o*&r'm&'#. /i+omacy is #h&r&%or& mar"i'ai8&d, as i# has &&' i' 1.S. 4ua +oicy %or 0

y&ars, a'd as i# has &&' mor& r&c&'#y i' 1.S. +oicy #o(ard o#h Nor#h or&a a'd Ira'.

R&"im& &*ou#io', ho(&*&r, acc&+#s #h& '&&d %or "i*&-a'd-#a)&. 7h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s carri&d ou# a'

ac#i*& di+omacy (i#h #h& So*i 1'io' #hrou"hou# #h& 4od ar. I# ma##&r&d 'o# (hh&r #h&

+oicy (as charac#&ri8&d as +&ac&%u co&3is#&'c& or, som&(ha# mor& o+#imis#icay, asd&'#&< &i#h&r (ay, #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s (as +r&+ar&d #o d&a (i#h #h& So*i 1'io' (h&' doi'"

so s&r*&d 1.S. i'#&r&s#s. 4o'#ai'm&'# #oo) +r&c&d&'c& o*&r roac), or r&"im& cha'"&, a'di'%u&'ci'" So*i %or&i"' +oicy #oo) +r&c&d&'c& o*&r i'%u&'ci'" So*i &ha*ior a# hom&.

7his did 'o# m&a' #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s i"'or&d u&s#io's o% (ha# (as "oi'" o' i'sid& #h& So*i

1'io' -- i# did 'o#, as &*id&'c&d y sus#ai'&d 1.S. su++or# %or radio roadcas#s addr&ss&d #o #h&So*i +&o+&, %or i'di*idua huma' ri"h#s cas&s, a'd %or #h& ri"h# #o &mi"ra#&. Bu# ashi'"#o'

did 'o# accord #h&s& issu&s #h& sam& (&i"h# as So*i %or&i"' +oicy.

7o u'd&rs#a'd ho( #his +roc&ss (or)&d, co'sid&r arms co'#ro, o'& r&am o% i'#&'s& 1.S-So*i

i'*o*&m&'#. 1.S. o%%icias r&"uary '&"o#ia#&d (i#h #h&ir So*i cou'#&r+ar#s a'd &'#&r&d i'#o

a"r&&m&'#s #o imi# (&a+o's, +ar#icuary 'uc&ar o'&s. Such a +oicy may ha*& +roo'"&d #h&So*i r&"im&, si'c& i# accord&d Mosco( a u'iu& a'd +romi'&'# i'#&r'a#io'a s#a'di'" a'd

+ac&d curs o' a cos#y arms rac& #ha# mi"h# ha*& has#&'&d #h& r&"im&6s d&mis& @"i*&' #h&cou'#ry6s (&a) &co'omic as&. S#i, succ&ssi*& 1.S. admi'is#ra#io's +rud&'#y d&&m&d

a*oidi'" (ar a'd r&"ua#i'" 1.S.-So*i arms com+i#io' hi"h&r "oas.

A simiar ra#io'a& mo#i*a#&d #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s6 &co'omic d&ai'"s (i#h #h& So*i 1'io'.

4o'c&r' #ha# ia#&ra #rad& coud u##r&ss #h& So*i "o*&r'm&'# (as o*&rridd&' y #h& *i&(#ha# #rad& d&as (oud aso "i*& #h& So*is a s#a)& i' #&r r&a#io's (i#h #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s a'd

#h& &s# a'd #h&r&y r&i' i' a'y So*i #&m+#a#io' #o cha&'"& *io&'#y #h& s#a#us uo.

I' #h& &'d, #h& So*i r&"im& did cha'"&. His#oria's (i co'#i'u& #o d&a#& ho( much o% #his

(as du& #o i'#&r'a %a(s i' #h& So*i sys#&m a'd ho( much r&su#&d %rom 1.S. a'd &s#&r'+oicy. 7h& &asy a's(&r is #ha# o#h %orc&s (&r& &%%&c#i*&. 7h& im+or#a'# #hi'" is #ha# a' &'d did

com&, a'd i# cam& +&ac&%uy. 7h& #hird "r&a# co'%ic# o% #h& #(&'#ih c&'#ury, i)& #h& %irs# #(o,

&'d&d (i#h #h& r&su# d&sir&d y #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s. 1'i)& #h& ou#com&s o% #h& %irs# #(o co'%ic#s,ho(&*&r, #his o'& (as achi&*&d (i#hou# #o#a (ar.

EASIER SAI/ 7HAN /ONE

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7h& So*i &3+&ri&'c& hods im+or#a'# &sso's %or curr&'# 1.S. %or&i"' +oicy. R&mo*i'" odious

&ad&rs -- r&"im& ous#&r -- is 'o &asy #hi'". 7h& So*i 1'io' sur*i*&d %or '&ary #hr&&-uar#&rs

o% a c&'#ury. 7h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s %ou'd i# di%%icu# #o oca#& a'd arr&s# Ma'u& Nori&"a i' a'amai' =99 a'd im+ossi& #o ous# Moham&d Farah Aid&&d i' Somaia i' =99G. Fid& 4as#ro r&mai's

&'sco'c&d i' Ha*a'a #oday.

R&"im& r&+ac&m&'#, #h& s&co'd s#&+ i' r&"im& cha'"&, is &*&' mor& di%%icu#, ho(&*&r. I' #h&

&'d, #o++i'" Saddam Huss&i' (as &asy com+ar&d (i#h +u##i'" i' +ac& a '&( Irai "o*&r'm&'##ha# coud ru' a s&cur&, *ia& cou'#ry. A#hou"h #h& Ira *&'#ur& (as mad& %ar mor& &3+&'si*&

a'd di%%icu# #ha' '&c&ssary y ashi'"#o'6s +oor +a''i'" a'd u&s#io'a& d&cisio's, i# is

+ossi& i# (oud 'o# ha*& "o'& mor& smoo#hy &*&' had Ira6s occu+a#io' &&' a++roach&ddi%%&r&'#y. A'd occu+a#io's &s&(h&r& (i 'o# & much &asi&r. 7h& ris& o% 'a#io'aism, #o"h&r

(i#h "oai8a#io' @a'd #h& i'cr&as&d a*aiaii#y o% +o(&r%u m&a's o% r&sis#a'c&, may ha*&

doom&d +roo'"&d occu+a#io's o% %or&i"' cou'#ri&s y shar+y i'cr&asi'" #h&ir huma', mii#ary,a'd &co'omic cos#s.

I'd&&d, #h& u'c&r#ai'#i&s surrou'di'" r&"im& cha'"& ma)& i# a' u'r&ia& a++roach %or d&ai'"(i#h s+&ci%ic +ro&ms such as a 'uc&ar (&a+o's +ro"ram i' a' u'%ri&'dy s#a#&. N&i#h&r Nor#h

or&a 'or Ira' a++&ars #o & o' #h& ri') o% drama#ic dom&s#ic cha'"&. A d&cad& a"o, ma'y&i&*&d #ha# Nor#h or&a (as '&ar coa+s&, y #h& r&"im& s#i s#a'ds, a'd i# may +&rsis# %or

y&ars mor&, 'o#(i#hs#a'di'" Nor#h or&a6s im+o*&rishm&'#, i#s cru& a'd &cc&'#ric &ad&rshi+,

a'd i#s u##&r ac) o% %r&&dom. Ira', #oo, is u'i)&y #o #hro( o%% i#s curr&'# c&rica &ad&rs, d&s+i#h&ir u'+o+uari#y. E*&' i% #h&s& ass&ssm&'#s u#ima#&y +ro*& i'corr&c#, r&"im& cha'"& ca''o#

& cou'#&d o' #o com& uic)y &'ou"h #o r&mo*& #h& 'uc&ar #hr&a#s 'o( +os&d y #h&s&

cou'#ri&s.

1'&ss, #ha# is, #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s is +r&+ar&d #o i'*ad& #h&m. Bu# #h& &3+&'s& o% #his a++roach

(oud & &'ormous. yo'"ya'"6s co'*&'#io'a mii#ary +o(&r coud i'%ic# "r&a# oss o% i%& a'd+hysica d&s#ruc#io' o' Sou#h or&a, a'd i#s 'uc&ar (&a+o's coud o*iousy i'cr&as& such

cos#s drama#icay. Ma'y 1.S. mii#ary +&rso''& @i'cudi'" som& o% #h& mor& #ha' G0,000curr&'#y s#a#io'&d i' Sou#h or&a, ao'" (i#h r&i'%orc&m&'#s (ho (oud & s&'# (oud os&

#h&ir i*&s. 7h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s coud a'd (oud (i' such a (ar, u# o'y a# "r&a# cos# #o i#s&%, #h&

r&"io', a'd #h& r&s# o% #h& (ord. 7h& sam& "o&s %or (ar (i#h Ira'. 7ha# cou'#ry is rou"hy #h&

si8& o% Aas)a a'd has C0 miio' +&o+&, rou"hy #hr&& #im&s as ma'y as Ira -- mor& #ha'&'ou"h #o ma)& a'y occu+a#io' cos#y, mis&ra&, a'd %u#i& %or #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s.

1si'" mor& i'dir&c# #oos #o ri'" aou# r&"im& &*ou#io', i's#&ad o% cha'"&, mi"h# (& (or)

u# (oud #a)& y&ars, i% 'o# d&cad&s. Achi&*i'" r&"im& &*ou#io' r&uir&s #h& s#ra#&"ic us& o%

#&&*isio', radio, a'd #h& I'#&r'. Admissio' #o #h& ord 7rad& Or"a'i8a#io' @7O coud &o%%&r&d i' rur' %or %u'dam&'#a &co'omic r&%orms, o'&s #ha# ar&, y #h&ir 'a#ur&, aso +oi#ica.

Rhorica su++or# %or cha'"& ca' aso h&+, as ca' dir&c# assis#a'c& #o 'o'"o*&r'm&'#a

or"a'i8a#io's a'd o#h&r &&m&'#s o% ci*i sociy. Eco'omic a'd +oi#ica i'c&'#i*&s shoud &mad& a*aia& #o #h& #ar" cou'#ry i% i# is (ii'" #o ado+# +oici&s #ha# r&duc& #hr&a#s a'd #ha#

cr&a#& mor& %r&&dom a'd s+ac& %or i'd&+&'d&'# &co'omic a'd +oi#ica ac#i*i#y< i' #h& as&'c& o%

such cha'"&s, #ar"&d sa'c#io's shoud & co'sid&r&d. 7rad& a'd +&rso''& &3cha'"&s ca' o+&'a cos&d sociy #o '&( id&as. O*&r #h& +as# %&( d&cad&s, #h&r& ha*& &&' do8&'s o% cas&s o%

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succ&ss%u r&"im& &*ou#io' i' #h& %orm&r So*i oc, ;a#i' Am&rica, a'd Asia, a'd #h&r& is 'o

r&aso' such +a##&r's coud 'o# & r&+&a#&d &s&(h&r& i% #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s ma)&s #h& i'*&s#m&'#

a'd #a)&s #h& '&c&ssary #im&. Odious or da'"&rous r&"im&s shoud '&*&r & '&"&c#&d, u# #h&sa%&s# a'd &s# (ay #o &'coura"& #h&ir mod&ra#io' or im+osio' is #o smo#h&r #h&m (i#h +oici&s

#ha# %orc& #h&m #o o+&' u+ #o a'd d&a (i#h #h& ou#sid& (ord.

MI;I7AR? MEANS

O'& o#h&r a#&r'a#i*& %or d&ai'" (i#h yo'"ya'"6s a'd 7&hra'6s 'uc&ar +ro"rams is #h& imi#&dus& o% mii#ary %orc&. Such a##ac)s coud #a)& #(o %orms. O'& is a +r&&m+#i*& s#ri)&, a)i' #o (ha#

Isra& did i' =9C (h&', &ar'i'" o% a' immi'&'# E"y+#ia' a##ac), i# hi# #h& E"y+#ia's %irs#. For

such a' a##ac) #o (or), ho(&*&r, #h& i'#&i"&'c& ass&ssm&'# o% #h& #hr&a# mus# & '&ar =00+&rc&'# accura#&, co'%irmi'" #ha# #h& da'"&r is i' %ac# immi'&'# a'd #ha# #h&r& ar& 'o o#h&r

a*aia& m&a's #o s#o+ i#. 1'd&r such rar& circums#a'c&s, i# is (id&y *i&(&d #ha# a s#a#& &'>oys

#h& ri"h# #o s#ri)& &%or& i# is c&r#ai' #o & s#ruc). 7his is +r&&m+#io' i' #h& cassica s&'s& --

somhi'" ui#& di%%&r&'# %rom r&sid&'# &or"& . Bush6s us& o% #h& #&rm, (hich i' %ac# is

#&r u'd&rs#ood as +r&*&'#io'.

7h& +ro&m %or 1.S. +oicyma)&rs #oday is #ha# '&i#h&r si#ua#io' -- '&i#h&r #ha# (i#h Nor#h

or&a 'or #ha# (i#h Ira' -- is i)&y #o sa#is%y #h& co'di#io's #ha# (arra'# a +r&&m+#i*& s#ri)& i'

#h& #radi#io'a s&'s&. I's#&ad, a*aia& i'#&i"&'c& (i +roay & u&s#io'a&, #h& #hr&a#su'c&r#ai' a'd i' 'o (ay c&ary immi'&'#, a'd #h& mii#ary o+#io' u# o'& o% s&*&ra +oici&s

a*aia&. 1'd&r such circums#a'c&s, a'y 1.S. a##ac) (oud & +r&*&'#i*&, 'o# +r&&m+#i*& -- #h&

us& o% %orc& a"ai's# a "a#h&ri'" u# 'o# immi'&'# #hr&a#.

7h&r& ar& som& +r&c&d&'#s %or +r&*&'#i*& s#ri)&s, such as Isra&6s a##ac) o' Ira6s Osira) 'uc&ar

com+&3 i' =9= or #h& 1.S.-&d i'*asio' o% Ira som& #(o d&cad&s a#&r. Bu# +r&*&'#i*& a##ac)s

a(ays +os& s&rious +ro&ms. For o'& #hi'", i# is a u# im+ossi& #o " i'#&r'a#io'a su++or#%or #h&m. For a'o#h&r, #h&y ar& ui#& di%%icu# #o carry ou# succ&ss%uy< i'd&&d, "i*&' #h& s&cr&cysurrou'di'" 'uc&ar +ro"rams, #h& &*& o% i'#&i"&'c& '&&d&d #o &%%&c#i*&y cri++& #h&m

#hrou"h a mii#ary a##ac) ca' & im+ossi& #o a##ai'.

I# is #his as# co'sid&ra#io' -- o% %&asiii#y -- #ha# is i)&y #o d&rmi'& #h& us& o% +r&*&'#i*&

s#ri)&s i' #h& %u#ur&. I# is 'o# >us# a u&s#io' o% (ha# co's#i#u#&s Nor#h or&a6s 'uc&ar (&a+o's+ro"ram or (h&r& i# is. ashi'"#o' coud i' +ri'ci+& s#ri)& o#h&r #ar"s *au&d y yo'"ya'"

#o co&rc& i# i'#o m&i'" 1.S. a'd i'#&r'a#io'a d&ma'ds r&"ardi'" i#s 'uc&ar +ro"rams. I# is 'o#

c&ar, ho(&*&r, (hh&r ashi'"#o' coud " +oi#ica su++or# %or such a##ac)s or #ha# #h&y(oud ha*& #h& d&sir&d &%%&c#. I' %ac#, Sou#h or&a, Ja+a', 4hi'a, a'd Russia ar& i)&y #o

o++os& a'y ac#io' #ha# coud &ad #o a (ar o' #h& or&a' &'i'sua #ha# (oud )i hu'dr&ds o%

#housa'ds a'd d&s#roy #h& &co'omy o% Sou#h or&a a'd o% #h& r&"io' mor& "&'&ray.

1si'" +r&*&'#i*& s#ri)&s #o d&s#roy Ira'6s d&*&o+i'" (&a+o's +ro"ram (oud aso & much&asi&r said #ha' do'&, "i*&' #h& im+&r%&c# 'a#ur& o% #h& i'#&i"&'c& o' Ira'6s +ro"ram a'd #h&

o+&ra#io'a cha&'"&s o% a##ac)i'" i#s dis+&rs&d a'd uri&d 'uc&ar %acii#i&s. 1.S. s#ri)&s mi"h#

succ&&d i' d&s#royi'" +ar# o% Ira'6s (&a+o's +ro"ram a'd s i# ac) y mo'#hs or &*&' y&ars.Bu# &*&' i% #his (&r& #o occur, Ira' (oud sur&y r&co's#i#u#& i#s +ro"ram i' a ma''&r #ha# (oud

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ma)& %u#ur& s#ri)&s &*&' mor& di%%icu#. Mor&o*&r, Ira' has #h& aii#y #o raia#& y u'&ashi'"

#&rrorism @usi'" Hamas a'd H&8oah a"ai's# Isra& a'd #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s or y +romo#i'"

i's#aii#y i' Ira, A%"ha'is#a', a'd Saudi Araia. A 1.S. s#ri)& o' Ira' (oud aso %ur#h&r a'"&r#h& Ara a'd Musim (ords, (h&r& ma'y ar&ady r&s&'# #h& dou& s#a'dard o% 1.S. a'd

i'#&r'a#io'a acc&+#a'c& o% Isra&6s a'd I'dia6s 'uc&ar (&a+o's +ro"rams. Much o% #h& Ira'ia'

+o+ua#io', curr&'#y ai&'a#&d %rom #h& r&"im&, (oud i)&y ray arou'd i# i' #h& cas& o% a%or&i"' a##ac), ma)i'" &3#&r'a &%%or#s #o ri'" aou# r&"im& cha'"& #ha# much mor& u'i)&y #o

succ&&d. A##ac)i'" Ira' (oud aso &ad #o shar+ a'd +ossiy +roo'"&d i'cr&as&s i' #h& +ric& o%

oi, (hich coud #ri""&r a "oa &co'omic crisis. Nor (oud #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s a*oid #h&s& cos#si% Isra& carri&d ou# #h& s#ri)& @a sc&'ario su""&s#&d y :ic& r&sid&'# /ic) 4h&'&y i' Ja'uary

2005, si'c& Isra& (oud & (id&y *i&(&d as doi'" #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s6 iddi'".

7A; FIRS7

A'o#h&r a#&r'a#i*& +oicy %or m&i'" #h& 'uc&ar cha&'"& +os&d y Ira' a'd Nor#h or&a

(oud & #o &m+hasi8& di+omacy. Nor#h or&a a'd Ira' coud & +romis&d a 'um&r o%

&'&%i#s, i'cudi'" &co'omic assis#a'c&, s&curi#y assura'c&s, a'd "r&a#&r +oi#ica s#a'di'", i%#h&y sa#is%i&d 1.S. a'd i'#&r'a#io'a co'c&r's r&"ardi'" #h&ir 'uc&ar +ro"rams. 7h&y coud aso

& +r&s&'#&d (i#h c&ar +&'a#i&s i' cas& #h&y %ai #o coo+&ra#& ad&ua#&y. Such +&'a#i&s coudi'cud& di+oma#ic a'd &co'omic sa'c#io's a'd, i' #h& mos# dir& circums#a'c&s, mii#ary a##ac).

I# is %ar %rom c&ar, ho(&*&r, (hh&r a'y such a"r&&m&'# coud ac#uay & '&"o#ia#&d. Nor#h

or&a may (& d&cid& #ha# +oss&ssi'" 'uc&ar (&a+o's is #h& &s# (ay #o d&r a 1.S.-&d

mii#ary i'#&r*&'#io' a'd #o &ar' hard curr&'cy -- a'd #hus r&%us& #o "i*& u+ such (&a+o's. Ira',#oo, may d&cid& #ha# 'uc&ar (&a+o's ar& #oo us&%u as a d&rr&'# a'd a m&a's #o acuir&

r&"io'a i'%u&'c&. E*&' i% #h&s& s#a#&s a"r&&d #o "i*& u+ #h&ir (&a+o's, mor&o*&r, #h&r& is 'o

"uara'#&& #ha# #h&y (oud ho'or #h&ir a"r&&m&'#s. Nor#h or&a has ar&ady r&ach&d a =992

accord (i#h Sou#h or&a #o )&&+ #h& +&'i'sua %r&& o% 'uc&ar (&a+o's a'd *ioa#&d #h& s+iri# @i%'o# '&c&ssariy #h& #&r o% #h& =99 1.S.-Nor#h or&a' A"r&&d Fram&(or). Ira', %or i#s +ar#,

has %ai&d #o %u%i i#s oi"a#io's #o 'o#i%y #h& I'#&r'a#io'a A#omic E'&r"y A"&'cy @IAEA o%i#s ura'ium-&'richm&'# ac#i*i#i&s, as i# is r&uir&d #o u'd&r a sa%&"uards a"r&&m&'# 7&hra' si"'&d

+ursua'# #o #h& No'+roi%&ra#io' 7r&a#y.

i*&' #h&ir r&cords, Nor#h or&a a'd Ira' coud & &3+&c#&d #o &3+oi# #h& #im& a'y '&"o#ia#io'

(oud uy #h&m #o &'ha'c& #h&ir 'uc&ar ca+aii#i&s. E*&' as&'# such ad %ai#h, &ss&'#iayr&(ardi'" a cou'#ry such as Nor#h or&a (i#h a#&r'a#i*& &'&r"y sourc&s a'd *arious +oi#ica

a'd &co'omic &'&%i#s %or i#s ha*i'" o'c& i'*&s#&d i' 'uc&ar (&a+o's coud ha*& #h& +&r*&rs&

&%%&c# o% &'coura"i'" +roi%&ra#io' &s&(h&r&. I# mi"h# "i*& o#h&r cou'#ri&s a' i'c&'#i*& #o %oo(

sui# i' #h& &i&% #ha# #h&y, #oo, (i &*&'#uay & r&(ard&d %or #h&ir ad &ha*ior.

/&s+i#& #h&s& +ro&ms, ho(&*&r, di+omacy r&mai's a' a##rac#i*& o+#io', o#h &caus& i# coud

succ&&d a'd &caus& o'y y %irs# ma)i'" a "ood-%ai#h &%%or# (i #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s ha*& a cha'c&

o% "#i'" #h& '&c&ssary r&"io'a a'd i'#&r'a#io'a ac)i'" %or #h&' +ursui'" a mor&co'%ro'#a#io'a #ac).

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I' %ac#, #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s @(or)i'" (i#h 4hi'a, Ja+a', Russia, a'd Sou#h or&a has ar&ady

i'i#ia#&d a s&ri&s o% discussio's (i#h Nor#h or&a i' ord&r #o co'*i'c& i# #o aa'do' i#s 'uc&ar

(&a+o's +ro"ram. yo'"ya'", ho(&*&r, r&>&c#&d #h& i'c&'#i*&s ashi'"#o' o%%&r&d i# as# y&ar,a'd #h& %aiur& #o i'cud& a'y c&ar +&'a#i&s i' #h& d&a +u# i##& +r&ssur& o' Nor#h or&a #o

com+romis&. N&i#h&r #h& carro# 'or #h& s#ic) (as ad&ua#&. I' addi#io', #h& Bush admi'is#ra#io'

os# *aua& #im& y r&sis#i'" #h& +ros+&c# o% ia#&ra #a)s (i#h Nor#h or&a. 7his (as amis#a)&< i# ma##&rs i##& (hh&r 4hi'a, Ja+a', Sou#h or&a, a'd Russia ar& +hysicay i' #h&

room so o'" as #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s coordi'a#&s i#s +oici&s (i#h #h&m.

7h& &s# +a#h a*aia& 'o( is #o co'#i'u& #o (or) (i#h #h&s& s#a#&s o' a di+oma#ic +ac)a"& #ha#

(oud "i*& Nor#h or&a s&curi#y assura'c&s, &'&r"y assis#a'c&, a'd s+&ci%i&d +oi#ica a'd&co'omic &'&%i#s i' &3cha'"& %or %or"oi'" i#s 'uc&ar +ro"rams @%u& a'd (&a+o's ai)& a'd

a"r&&i'" #o rous# i'#&r'a#io'a i's+&c#io's. S&u&'c& ma##&rs i' a #his< i# is u'r&ais#ic #o

&3+&c# Nor#h or&a #o sa#is%y a 'uc&ar-r&a#&d r&uir&m&'#s &%or& i# r&c&i*&s a'y &'&%i#s.ashi'"#o' a'd i#s +ar#'&rs shoud aso a"r&& o' (ha# &co'omic a'd +oi#ica sa'c#io's (oud

& im+os&d o' yo'"ya'" i% i# %ai&d #o acc&+# such a' a"r&&m&'# y a s+&ci%i&d da#& or i% i#

cross&d a r&d i'&, such as y #&s#i'" a 'uc&ar d&*ic&.

4hi'a6s ro& is c&'#ra #o a'y such di+oma#ic u'd&r#a)i'". A#hou"h B&i>i'"6s i'%u&'c& o' Nor#hor&a is imi#&d, i# is "r&a#&r #ha' a'y o#h&r cou'#ry6s. 4hi'a is #h& sourc& o% much o% Nor#h

or&a6s &'&r"y a'd is i#s +ri'ci+a #radi'" +ar#'&r. Bu# B&i>i'", (hi& (ii'" #o a++y som&

+r&ssur&, s&&ms r&uc#a'# #o i'sis#, +ossiy ou# o% %&ar #ha# i% im Jo'" I6s r&"im& &"i's #ocoa+s&, (ar (i r&a) ou# a'd r&%u"&&s (i %ood 4hi'a. As a r&su#, 4hi'a has s&&m&d mor&

i'#&r&s#&d i' +aci'" a id o' #h& Nor#h or&a +ro&m #ha' i' ac#uay r&so*i'" i#.

ashi'"#o' mus# #ry #o +&rsuad& B&i>i'" #o us& a o% i#s i'%u&'c& #o co'*i'c& yo'"ya'" #o

aa'do' i#s 'uc&ar (&a+o's +ro"ram. 7o #his &'d, 4hi'a6s &ad&rs shoud u'd&rs#a'd #ha# #h&

Nor#h or&a +ro&m is a #&s# cas& o% 4hi'a6s (ii'"'&ss #o &com& a #ru& s#ra#&"ic +ar#'&r o%#h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s. I# (oud aso h&+ i% #h& 1.S. "o*&r'm&'# (&r& #o r&assur& 4hi'a6s &ad&rs

aou# i#s o'"-#&rm #hi')i'" o' Nor#h&as# Asia, 'am&y, #ha# #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s is %irmy o++os&d#o #h& &m&r"&'c& o% a'y '&( 'uc&ar (&a+o's s#a#& i' #h& r&"io', & i# Ja+a', a u'i%i&d or&a, or

7ai(a'.

Addr&ssi'" Ira'6s 'uc&ar +ro"ram (i r&uir& a' i'#&r'a#io'a +ro+osa o%%&ri'" 7&hra' #h&

'uc&ar %u& i# says i# r&uir&s %or +o(&r "&'&ra#io', u# 'o# dir&c# acc&ss #o or co'#ro o% #h& %u&i#s&%. Such a' o%%&r coud & mad& #o Ira' ao'&. Bu# #o im+ro*& i#s a##rac#i*&'&ss, #h& d&a

shoud & +u# %or(ard as a '&( "oa +oicy, i' (hich 'o &'#i#y o#h&r #ha' #h& %i*&

ac)'o(&d"&d 'uc&ar (&a+o's s#a#&s a'd #h& IAEA (oud & +&rmi##&d #o co'#ro 'uc&ar %u&.

7o s&cur& Ira'6s a"r&&m&'#, #h& cou'#ry, (hich is curr&'#y su>&c# #o 'um&rous 1.S. &co'omicsa'c#io's, coud & o%%&r&d *arious &co'omic i'duc&m&'#s a'd s&curi#y assura'c&s a)i' #o #hos&

&i'" co'sid&r&d %or Nor#h or&a. I' &3cha'"& %or #h&s& &'&%i#s, Ira' @a"ai' i)& Nor#h or&a

(oud & &3+&c#&d #o co'*i'c& #h& (ord, y ao(i'" i'#rusi*& i's+&c#io's, #ha# i# is 'o#d&*&o+i'" 'uc&ar (&a+o's or +roduci'" #h& %issi& ma#&ria #h&y r&uir&. 1.S. +oicy curr&'#y

s&&ms #o & h&ad&d i' #his dir&c#io', u# ashi'"#o' '&&ds #o o%%&r mor& #ha' sim+y &'di'" i#s

oc)a"& o% Ira'6s admissio' #o #h& 7O or i#s +urchas& o% s+ar& +ar#s %or aircra%#. For #h&ir +ar#,

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Euro+& a'd Russia, as (& as 4hi'a, mus# commi# #o m&a'i'"%u sa'c#io's i' #h& &*&'# Ira'

*ioa#&s #h& a"r&&m&'#. 7his is a mom&'# %or cr&a#i*& s+&ci%ici#y, 'o# ami"ui#y.

E*&' i% such #ac#ics ar& us&d, i# r&mai's +ossi& @som& (oud say i)&y #ha# di+omacy (i#hIra' (i %ai, &i#h&r &caus& o% i'su%%ici&'# i'#&r'a#io'a su++or# or &caus& ma'y i' Ira' (a'# #o

+roc&&d (i#h ura'ium &'richm&'# or d&*&o+ 'uc&ar (&a+o's r&"ard&ss o% #h& cos#. As (i#hNor#h or&a, ho(&*&r, #h& di+oma#ic o+#io' is 'o'h&&ss (or#h +ursui'", "i*&' #h& cos#s o%

&*&ry o#h&r a++roach a'd "i*&' #ha# #h& o'y cha'c& %or uidi'" i'#&r'a#io'a su++or# %or @or&*&' acc&+#a'c& o% a mor& a""r&ssi*& s#ra#&"y is #o %irs# ma)& a "ood-%ai#h &%%or# #o r&so*&

ma##&rs di+oma#icay.

;I:IN I7H RO;IFERA7ION

7h&r& is a(ays #h& o+#io' o% acc&+#i'" a d& %ac#o 'uc&ar s#a#us %or Nor#h or&a a'd Ira'. 7hisis #h& d&%au# o+#io' i% r&"im& cha'"& yi&ds 'o drama#ic r&su#, #h& mii#ary o+#io' is r&>&c#&d,

a'd di+omacy %ais. A'd i# (oud & simiar #o (ha# has ar&ady &com& #h& 1.S. a'd

i'#&r'a#io'a a++roach #o Isra&, I'dia, a'd a)is#a'. 7h&r& (oud ha*& #o &, ho(&*&r, o'& i"di%%&r&'c&$ "i*&' #h& &icos& his#ory a'd 'a#ur& o% o#h Nor#h or&a a'd Ira', #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s

(oud '&&d #o i'#roduc& a' &3#ra &&m&'# o% d&rr&'c& #o discoura"& &i#h&r "o*&r'm&'# %rom

usi'" a 'uc&ar (&a+o' or #ra's%&rri'" cri#ica #&ch'oo"i&s, %u&, or (&a+o's #o o#h&r s#a#&s or #o

#&rroris# "rou+s. 7o #his &'d, #h& 1'i#&d S#a#&s shoud d&car& +uicy #ha# a'y "o*&r'm&'# #ha#us&s (&a+o's o% mass d&s#ruc#io', #hr&a#&'s #o us& #h&m, or )'o(i'"y #ra's%&rs M/ or )&y

ma#&rias #o #hird +ar#i&s o+&'s i#s&% u+ #o #h& s#ro'"&s# r&+risas, i'cudi'" a##ac) a'd r&mo*a

%rom +o(&r. 7his m&ssa"& shoud & accom+a'i&d y a co'c&r#&d di+oma#ic &%%or# #o " #h&o#h&r ma>or +o(&rs #o si"' o' #o such a +oicy. Such mo*&s (oud add #&h #o S&curi#y 4ou'ci

r&sou#io's a'd i'#&r'a#io'a co'*&'#io's #ha# ar&ady %orid s#a#&s %rom %acii#a#i'" 'uc&ar

#&rrorism i' a'y (ay.

E*&' (i#h such i'#&r'a#io'a s#a#&m&'#s, #his a++roach (oud & i'h&r&'#y ris)y$ acc&+#i'" aNor#h or&a' 'uc&ar ars&'a mi"h# m&a' acc&+#i'" #h& +&r+ua#io' o% a d&s+&ra#&, %aii'"

"o*&r'm&'# #ha# coud (& #ry s&cry #o #ra's%&r 'uc&ar ma#&ria #o #&rroris#s i' &3cha'"& %or

much-'&&d&d mo'&y. Acc&+#i'" #h& &3is#&'c& o% a 'uc&ar-arm&d Ira' im+i&s a simiar ar"ai'.A'd i' o#h cas&s, d&rr&'c& mi"h# 'o# (or).

ha# is mor&, &*&' i% d&rr&'c& did (or), acc&+#i'" a'd &ar'i'" #o i*& (i#h a 'uc&ar-arm&d

Nor#h or&a or Ira' (oud 'o# & cos# %r&&. As su""&s#&d ao*&, i% Nor#h or&a is ao(&d #o

rai' 'uc&ar (&a+o's, #his coud +rom+# Ja+a', Sou#h or&a, or o#h&r s#a#&s #o s&&) #o acuirh&m as (&. &&+i'" #h& +&ac& i' a 'uc&ar Nor#h&as# Asia (oud & 'o &asy %&a# "i*&' #h&

his#orica a'imosi#i&s, #h& a#&'# ri*ari&s, a'd #h& ac) o% i's#i#u#io'a m&cha'isms %or +romo#i'"

r&"io'a co'%id&'c& a'd s#aii#y.

7h& sam& "o&s %or #h& Midd& Eas#. A 'uc&ar Ira' coud (& caus& E"y+#, Saudi Araia, Syria,a'd &*&' Ira #o co'sid&r d&*&o+i'" a simiar ca+aii#y, a#hou"h i# mi"h# #a)& #h&m o'"&r #o

ca#ch u+ du& #o #h&ir ac) o% a' ad*a'c&d i'dus#ria as&. A'd )&&+i'" #h& +&ac& (&&' a ha%

do8&' 'uc&ar-arm&d s#a#&s #ha# ar& sus+icious o%, i% 'o# do('ri"h# hos#i& #o(ard, o'& a'o#h&r(oud & &3#r&m&y di%%icu#. 7h& &m&r"&'c& o% '&( 'uc&ar (&a+o's s#a#&s (oud aso

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drama#icay i'cr&as& #h& ris) #ha# #h&s& (&a+o's or #h&ir com+o'&'#s (oud %a i'#o #h& ha'ds

o% #&rroris#s, (hh&r y accid&'# or d&si"'.

A;; 7OE7HER NO

R&"im& cha'"&, imi#&d mii#ary ac#io', di+omacy, a'd d&rr&'c& ca' a & co'sid&r&d asa#&r'a#i*& +oici&s. 7h&y ar& #&r u'd&rs#ood, ho(&*&r, as com+o'&'#s o% a si'"&

com+r&h&'si*& a++roach #o(ard s#a#&s such as Nor#h or&a a'd Ira'. /&rr&'c& is a (ay #o

ma)& #h& &s# o% a ad si#ua#io'. Mii#ary ac#io' or, mor& +r&cis&y, #h& #hr&a# o% i# ca' u##r&ssdi+oma#ic +ros+&c#s. Bu# di+omacy shoud & #h& h&ar# o% 1.S. +oicy #o(ard o#h cou'#ri&s --

&caus& i# coud succ&&d, &caus& i# mus# & sho(' #o ha*& %ai&d &%or& #h&r& is a'y cha'c& o%

"ar'&ri'" su++or# %or o#h&r +oici&s, a'd &caus& a #h& o#h&r o+#io's ar& so u'a##rac#i*&.

As %or r&"im& cha'"&, i# is &s# *i&(&d as a com+&m&'# #o di+omacy a'd d&rr&'c&. I# is&ss&'#ia #o a++r&cia#& 'o# o'y #h& imi#s o% r&"im& cha'"& u# aso i#s 'a#ur&. A r&%usa #o

&'"a"& #yra''i&s ao(s #h&m #o (ra+ #h&ms&*&s i' 'a#io'aism a'd #o mai'#ai' co'#ro

seminar teoria relatiilor internationale-05.11.09

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