seminar yade-taondyande-05-06-13
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Food Consumption Dynamics in West Africa, presented by Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé from ReSAKSS-WA at West Africa Hub Seminar, 05 June 2013TRANSCRIPT
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WEST AFRICA HUB SEMINAR 05 JUNE 2013
FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICA
By Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé
ReSAKSS-WA
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INTRODUCTION
ANALYSIS BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPLEMENTED IN 7 COUNTRIES:
• BURKINA FASO (1994 & 2009)• COTE D’IVOIRE (1993 & 2008)• GHANA (1992 & 2006)• MALI (1989 & 2006)• NIGER (2005)• SENEGAL (1994 & 2002)• TOGO (2006)• COUNTRIES FOOD BALANCE SHEETS
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OUTLINEHOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS AND
INEQUALITIESCALORIE INTAKEABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARE TRENDSFOOD CONSUMPTION (QUANTITIES)
TRENDSDETERMINANTS OF FOOD
CONSUMPTION DYNAMICSFOOD CONSUMPTION FORECAST
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INCOME DISTRIBUTION
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HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS
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INEQUALITY TRENDS
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CALORIE INTAKE
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DIET DIVERSIFICATION
CONTRIBUTION OF FOOD PRODUCTS TO CALORIE INTAKE
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES
Share of food expenditure in total expenditure
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES
Food expenditure share according to household income level
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES
Absolute budget shares in 2000s
Item and item groups Burkina
Faso 2009 Mali 2006Senegal
2002Côte d'Ivoire
2008Ghana 2006
Cereals 55.1 44.5 31.4 25.7 22.8
Rice 12.8 19 17 18.6 11.2
Maize 11.9 4 0.5 3.6 5.5
Millet/sorghum 27 17.7 4.2 0.4 0.6
Wheat 2.3 3.5 9.3 3 5.1
Other cereals 1.1 0.4 0.4 0 0.3
Root/tub and plantain 0.6 1.9 2.4 16.8 15
Cassava 6.6 7.1
Yam 6.2 4.8
Other root and tub 0.9 0.4
Plantain 3 2.8
Fruits and vegetables 6.1 9.9 12.6 15.7 13.9
Animal products and fish 10 22.2 25.8 22.6 29.2
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARERice Trends
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESMaize Trends
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESMillet/sorghum Trends
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESWheat Trends
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESRoots and tubers Trends
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESFruits and vegetables Trends
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ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARESAnimals products and fish
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PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS RICE
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GREAT DEPENDENCY ON RICE IMPORTS
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PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDSMILLET/SORGHUM
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PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS WHEAT
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WHAT DRIVED THE CHANGES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION
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ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
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ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
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FOOD CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK IN WEST AFRICA
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TOTAL MARGINAL BUDGET SHARE OF FOOD DEMAND
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MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
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MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
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MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
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MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
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CUMULATED DEMAND FORECAST2010-2020
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CUMULATED DEMAND FORECAST2010-2020
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CUMULATED FOOD BALANCE 2010-2020
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CONCLUSIONS
• CALORIE REQUIREMENTS MET IN AVERAGE IN BURKINA FASO, COTE D’IVOIRE AND SENEGAL; AND NOT IN NIGER AND TOGO
• DIET CHARACTERIZED BY EXCESSIVE CONSUMPTION OF CARBOHYDRATES AND UNDERCONSUMPTION OF FAT AND PROTEIN
• SHARE OF FOOD EXPENDITURE IN TOTAL EXPENDITURE VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 39% TO 60 %
• INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF IMPORTED COMMODITIES (RICE AND WHEAT) AT THE EXPENSE OF LOCAL FOOD
• WITH RESPECT TO ANIMAL PRODUCTS: INCREASE OF FISH IMPORTS AT EXPENSE OF LOCAL MEAT
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CONCLUSIONS
• URBAIZATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE OVERALL TRENDS IN FOOD DEMAND, IN PARTICULAR FOR RICE AND WHEAT
• DECREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF LOCAL FOOD CAN BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE POORS WHILE INCREASE IN RICE AND IMPORTED PRODUCTS TO THE RICHER QUINTILES
• PROJECTED IMPORT NEEDS FOR WHEAT (100% OF DEMAND); RICE AND FISH (50% OF DEMAND); CASSAVA (15% OF DEMAND); YAM (10% OF DEMAND)
• PROJECTED EXPORT POTENTIAL FOR MAIZE, MILLET/SORGHUM AND PLANTAIN
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THANK YOU