Chapter 4

TIME-LAG AND COST OVERRUN OF INVESTMENTS IN KERALA:

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

The sectoral allocation of plan expenditure during

the first to the eighth plan reveals that around 38 per

cent of the total expenditure of the state is spent on

irrigation and power projects. A study on time-lag and

cost overrun of the investment in these two sectors is

expected to represent clearly the nature and trends in

time-lag and cost overrun of Governmental investment.

Hence a census study with reference to time-lag and cost

overrun of governmental investments relating to all the

completed and ongoing HEPs and irrigation projects is

undertaken here. Along with the census study of HEPs and

irrigation projects a sample study of the time-lag and cost

overrun of industries is also worked out.

Time-lag and Cost Overrun of Irrigation Projects

In Kerala there exist 28 irrigation projects - 10

completed and 18 ongoing. The time-lag and cost overrun of

the completed and the ongoing projects are studied here

separately.

116

117

Time-lag and Cost Overrun of Completed Irrigation Projects

There are 10 completed irrigation projects in

Kerala. The details of the extent of time-lag and cost

overrun of these projects are given in Table 4.1.

The original estimated cost of these 10 projects

was Rs.1,849 lakhs. The actual cost of these projects has

increased to Rs.2,353.83 lakhs. The extent of cost overrun

is Rs.505.49 lakhs. The cost overrun comes to about 27.33

per cent over the original estimated cost.

Out of the 10 completed irrigation projects only

two have negative cost overrun and the other two have only

nominal increase in cost over the original estimate. The

other six projects resulted in considerable extent of cost

overrun, ranging from 43.10 per cent to 135.55 per cent

over the original estimated cost.

All the 10 completed irrigation projects resulted

in time-lag (Table 4.1) ranging from three years to 17

years. Time-lag over the original estimated period

fluctuates between 60 per cent to 500 per cent. The total

gestation period of all these 10 projects are 48 years.

But this has increased to 92 years which shows 191.66 per

cent increase over the original estimated period.

41

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Out of the 10 completed irrigation projects four

have a time lag of more than 10 years. Out of the 10

completed irrigation projects nine projects have a time-lag

of more than six years. Table 4.1 clearly brings out the

fact that time lag and cost overrun in the implementation

of commissioned irrigation projects are a common feature of

almost all projects.

Time-lag and Cost Overrun of Ongoing Irrigation Projects

There are 18 ongoing irrigation projects in

Kerala . The time-lag and cost overrun of these 18 projects

are given in Table 4 . 2. The original estimated cost of

these 17 projects ( excluding sl.no . 17) is Rs .17,661 lakh.

The latest estimated cost of (1991) these 17 projects is

(excluding sl.no .17) Rs.1,11,731 lakhs. The cost overrun

of these 17 projects amounts to Rs.94,070 lakhs

(estimated ). Thus there is 671 . 55 per cent increase over

the original estimated cost ( Table 4 . 2). As per 1991

estimate the Kallada project has the highest amount of cost

overrun of Rs.30,021 lakh showing 2 , 260 per cent increase

over the original estimated cost.

Time-lag of the Ongoing Irrigation Projects

The extent of time lag of the ongoing irrigation

project is presented in Table 4.2. The Periyar irrigation

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122

project started in 1956 with a gestation period of 5 years.

It was originally planned to get it commissioned in 1961.

But even today it is not yet commissioned. Todate it has

registered a time-lag of 32 years. There is 620 per cent

increase over the original estimated period of completion.

All the ongoing projects have experienced a terrible extent

of time-lag and cost overrun (Table 4.2). When compared

with the completed irrigation projects the extent of time-

lag and cost overrun is very high in the case of ongoing

irrigation projects.

Since all these 18 irrigation projects are in the

implementing stage, if this trend of time-lag and cost

overrun continues the magnitude of time-lag and cost

overrun will increase further. Thus the extent of time-lag

and cost overrun of the irrigation projects is not only

high but also of an increasing trend.

These 17 ongoing projects have an original

estimated cost of Rs.17,661 lakhs. But a total expenditure

of Rs.65,226.25 lakhs have gone into these 17 projects so

far, but no project is completed yet.

Time-lag and Cost Overrun of Hydro-electric Projects in

Kerala

In Kerala there exist 28 hydro-electric projects

123

of which 12 projects are completed and 16 projects still

Time-lag and Cost Overrun of Completed Hydro-electric

Project

The extent of time-lag and cost overrun of

completed hydro-electric projects is given in Table 4.3.

I

I

The original estimated cost of the 12 commissioned

hydro-electric projects is Rs .17,476.01 lakhs. But the

actual cost of these has increased to Rs .37,730. 54 lakhs

incurring a cost overrun of Rs .20,254.53 lakhs. Thus there

is an increase in cost of 115.89 per cent over the original

estimated amount . These figures reveal that cost overrun

amount is even higher than the original estimated cost of

these 12 projects. This means that the excess expenditure,

in the form of cost overrun on these 12 hydro-electric

projects is even sufficient enough to construct an equal

number of additional projects.

The Idamalayar HEP started in 1973 has an original

estimated cost of Rs.2,340 lakhs. But the cost of the

project has increased to Rs.9,003 lakhs, causing a cost

overun of Rs.6,663 lakhs. This comes to be about 284.74

per cent increase over the original estimated cost.

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126

All the completed hydro-electric projects of the

state resulted in cost overrun and the extent of the same

is very high (Table 4.3).

Out of the nine completed hydro-electric projects

all the projects met with time-lag. The extent of time-lag

veries from 2 years to 10 years (Table 4.3). In the case

of Idukki Stage III, the extent of time-lag is 10 years.

This is 200 per cent increase over the original estimated

period for completion. The total gestation period of these

nine projects are 62.5 years which has increased to 102

years causing a time-lag of 40 years which comes to be

about 61.27 per cent over the original estimated period.

Time-lag and Cost Overrun of the Ongoing HEPs

There are 15 ongoing HEPs in Kerala, started during

the period 1972 to 1989. The latest cost estimates of

these projects show that all these projects resulted in

cost overrun (Table 4.4). The original estimated cost of

these projects is Rs .16,079 lakhs. As per the latest

estimate this has increased to Rs.25,689 lakhs, resulting

in a cost overrun of Rs.13,741 lakhs. This shows an

increase of 85.46 per cent in cost over the original

estimated amount.

127

The extent of cost overrun is very high in the

case of ongoing HEPs . In the case of Lower Periyar Hydro-

Electric Project, the original estimated cost of the

project is Rs.8,843 lakhs. As per 1990 revised estimate

this has increased to Rs.14,500 lakhs. Thus a sum of

Rs.5,657 lakhs in addition has to be spent on the project

to meet the cost overrun (Table 4.4).

Since these are ongoing projects, and if this

trend in cost overrun is maintained , the extent of cost

overrun will increase further.

Even before reaching the commissioning stage, all

the projects resulted in time-lag. The extent of time-lag

varies from 2 to 10 years as per the 1990 revised estimate

(Table 4 . 4). And if this trend of time- lag is maintained,

the extent of time-lag will increase further. The projects

started in 1972 with a gestation period of 9 years remain

incomplete even today after 20 years of project work. The

extent of time-lag of the ongoing projects is very high.

According to the original time schedule the total period

for the completion of these 15 projects is 58 years. As

per the 1990 time schedule it will take 129 years to

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130

complete the work. This shows a time-lag of 71 years which

is 122.41 per cent increase over the original estimate.

The Extent of Time-lag and Cost Overrun

As mentioned earlier there are 10 completed

irrigation projects in Kerala. These 10 projects have an

estimated cost of Rs.1,849 lakhs. But the actual cost of

the project is Rs.2,353.83 lakhs. The cost overrun is

Rs.505 lakhs.

I There are 12 completed HEPs in Kerala. The

estimated cost of these projects is Rs.17,476.01 lakhs.

But as seen earlier (Table 4.3) the actual cost has

increased to Rs.37,730.54 lakhs. The cost overrun is

Rs.20,254.53 lakhs.

PF The total expenditure on completed irrigation

projects and hydro-electric projects is Rs.40,084.37 lakhs.

The total amount of cost overrun is Rs.20,760 lakhs. Out

of the total investment of Rs.40,084 lakhs on completed

irrigation and HEPs, Rs.20,760 lakhs, just about half of the

total, is consumed away by cost overrun. As per the

original estimate, the project could have been commissioned

without this additional amount of investment. As such the

131

amount of Rs.20,760 lakhs brings out zero output. This

shows that cost overrun contributes to capital wastage.

Again the 12 completed hydro-electric projects

have a total time-lag of 37 years. This means that these

12 HEPsof the state could have been completed without this

additional time, had it been completed as per original

schedule. This implies that the employment, output, and

income that could have been generated by these projects in

these 37 year's are lost.

Tables 4.2 and 4.4 reveal the very large extent of

time lag and cost overrun that has led to capital wastage

and capital loss in the ongoing hydro-electric and

irrigation projects of Kerala.

Time-lag and Cost Overrun: A Study of Industries in Kerala

State

In Kerala, the phenomenon of time-lag and cost

overrun is not only confined to projects in the primary and

infrastructural sectors but is also found in the case of

projects in the secondary sector. To analyse and identify

the extent of time-lag and cost overrun in the projects of

secondary sector, a sample study of the time-lag and cost

132

overrun of five public sector industrial undertakings is

carried out. The samples are selected on the basis of the

year of starting. The other criteria of selecting the

samples are spatial consideration and the availability and

accessibility of data. A sample study of time-lag and cost

overrun of two private sector industrial undertakings is

also carried out alongwith the five public sector

industries.

Data relating to time-lag and cost overrun of

seven industries are given in Table 4.5. Kerala Metals and

Minerals Ltd., a public sector industrial project, started

in 1978 with a gestation period of four years resulted in a

time-lag of about 3 years making 72.34 per cent increase

over the original scheduled period. This project with an

original estimated cost, of Rs.6,499.88 lakhs resulted in a

cost overrun of Rs.3,340 lakhs. Here is a 51.38 per cent

increase in cost over the original estimate (Table 4.5).

Out of the five public sector industrial units

studied, four resulted in considerable extent of time-lag

and cost overrun. But only one unit ie., the KSWIL unit

was completed without any time-lag and cost overrun. This

has happened so because its work has the technical and

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133

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134

managerial advice from a private sector unit of similar

nature.

The extent of time-lag is high in the case of

public sector industries. The overall time overrun of the

five projects as percentage increase over the original is

88.1 per cent.

An analysis of the two private sector industries

reveals that one project has no time lag and cost overrun

while the other unit has a negative time-lag and no cost

overrun (Table 4.5). Though one cannot generalise the

findings by studying just two samples, this points to the

fact that time-lag and cost overrun in project

implementation in the private sector is generally very

negligible and sometimes even negative.

The five industrial undertakings of Government of

Kerala have an estimated cost of Rs.12,154.88 lakhs. But

the actual cost has increased to Rs.18,512.62 lakhs. The

cost overrun over the estimated expenditure of Rs.12,154.88

lakhs amounted to Rs.6,357 lakhs making an increase of

52.30 per cent over the original estimated amount (Table

4.5).

135

The cost overrun as percentage increase over the

original estimated cost of all the completed HE1b comes to

115 per cent (Table 4.3), and that of all the completed

irrigation projects to 27.33 per cent,and that of the five

completed public sector industries to 52.30 per cent, and

that of the two completed private sector industries to only

0.428 per cent (Table 4.6).

Table 4.6

Time Lag and Cost Overrun of Completed Projects in

Kerala

(Time lag and cost overrun as percentage increase overthe original estimated amount)

S1. Particulars Time- Cost

No. lag overrun

1. 12 Completed hydroelectricprojects of Kerala

62.71% 115.89%

2. 10 Completed irrigation projects 191.66% 27.33%

3. 5 Industries (Public Sector) 88.1% 52.30

4. 2 Industries ( Private Sector ) 20% 0.428

5. 15 Ongoing hydroelectric projects 127.47 85.46

6. 17 Ongoing irrigation projects 359 532.64

Source: Compiled from Tables 4.1, 4.3 and 4.5.

136

The item-wise split-up of cost overrun of

industries (Table 4.7) reveals that the pre-operative

expenses is the single largest contributor of cost overrun

in most of the industries studied.

Time-lag and Cost Overrun--A Comparative Analysis

Time-lag of the 10 completed irrigation projects

shows 191 . 66 per cent increase over the original schedule

(Table 4.1). Time-lag of the 12 completed hydroelectric

projects amounts to 62.71 per cent increase over the

original scheduled period (Table 4.3). The 15 ongoing

hydroelectric projects resulted in a cost overrun of 127.47

per cent of the original estimate ( Table 4 . 4). The four

industrial units also have an 88.1 per cent increase in

time over the original time schedule.

A comparative study of time-lag of completed HEP

and ongoing HEP shows that time -lag is very high in the

case of ongoing HEP and it increased from 62 .71 per cent to

127.47 per cent ( Table 4.6 ) and is expected to increase

further since the projects are not yet completed. So a

project wise study of time-lag and cost overrun of HEP is

carried out in chapter five.

137

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