september 1-5, 2016 exclusive ncaa football over/under ... · betcha didn't know play on any...

VegasInsider.com

Volume 31, Issue 2 September 1-5, 2016

COLLEGE FOOTBALL KICKOFF ISSUE!

Exclusive NCAA Football Over/Under Breakdown!

• ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ Handicapping Article

• Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends

• Incredible Stat of the Week

• Analysis on Every Lined Game

• Best Bets and Key Plays

• Full Schedule with Opening Lines

100% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE!

GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLEGET SMART GET PLAYBOOKCOPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published

without the prior written permission of Playbook.com. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein.

• www.VegasInsider.com

ONE MORE TIME…IMPROVED DEFENSES

A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping

Marc Lawrence's

BETCHADIDN'TKNOW

PLAY ON any college football team in Game One through Four

in a conference game if they improved their defense by

100 or more yards last season from the previous year

Improvement. No matter how it’s measured it still comes out the same. That’s because forward progress

is always preferred. No one ever likes taking a step backward – unless, of course, it’s from a fi ring squad.

One of a handicapper’s main priorities is measuring a team’s value. By discerning whether a team is improving or declining, we can ferret out any remaining benefi ts in making a case for our team. And because statistics don’t lie, the measure is easier to gauge as the season wears on.

The opening month of the season makes it extremely diffi cult to determine whether a team is ascending or descending. Without results or opponents to grade against, we are perilously shooting in the blind as we attempt to formulate any kind of reliable power rating throughout September. What we can do, however, is to look back on last year’s performance and weigh it against the previous year’s effort. Remembering that ‘improvement’ is the operative word, we can attempt

to calculate whether a team actually improved or declined on the season.

Betterment can be determined in numerous manners. It can be measured either from an ATS (Against The Spread) and/or a SU (Straight-Up) aspect, or from a statistical view. When we look at a team statistically, we look to weigh offensive and defensive progress.

To help guide us through the fi rst four games of the season, we will look to concentrate on teams who improved substantially on the defensive front last season. That’s because if we were to –

– we would own a nifty 50-29-2 ATS winning mark since 1990.

“Do that to me one more time… once is never enough…

Pass that by me one more time… once just isn’t enough

Tell it to me one more time… I can never hear enough…”

2016 Associated Press Poll Preseason Top 25:1 ALABAMA2 CLEMSON3 OKLAHOMA4 FLORIDA ST5 LSU6 OHIO ST7 MICHIGAN

8 STANFORD9 TENNESSEE10 NOTRE DAME11 OLE MISS12 MICHIGAN ST13 TCU14 WASHINGTON

15 HOUSTON16 UCLA17 IOWA18 GEORGIA19 LOUISVILLE20 USC21 OKLAHOMA ST

22 N CAROLINA23 BAYLOR24 OREGON25 FLORIDA

By putting our ‘improved defenses’ up against a quality opponent that managed 5 or more wins last season (the bigger they are, the harder they fall), they rachet up to 40-20-1 ATS. That’s a rock-solid 67% winning angle on its own. And if our improved defensive squad managed to win 4 or more games last season, they zoom to 34-14-1 ATS.

This year fi nds only ONE FBS team with a 100-yard improved defense, namely Western Kentucky, who also happens to qualify as a play on this week’s card. Go Hilltoppers!

T R I V I A T E A S E R

This college football coach is 6-0 SU in season-opening contests, winning by a huge average margin of 46 points per game.

In addition, he stands 7-1 SU in games against opponents from today’s conference. Who is this week’s coaching goliath?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 9

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY

T R I V I A T E A S E R

ATS W-L Record Since 1990:

8-0(100%)

RED-FACED BOWLERS

PLAY ON any college team in its season opener provided they are not a double-digit favorite

and they lost SU as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points

the previous season.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

Play ON: FLORIDA STATE (Monday, 9/5)

Thursday, September 1Indiana 5-0 vs CUSA… 10-3 Game One favs… 2-5 away bef BB HGFIU 4-1 Weekdays… 7-3 Game One… 1-6 non-conf HD’s

S Carolina 9-3 Weekdays… 1-5 conf RD’s 7 < pts… 2-5 vs conf revVANDERBILT SERIES: 3-1 L4… 7-3 w/ conf revenge… 3-7 in 1st of BB HG

Oregon St 5-1 non-conf RD’s 13 < pts… 4-1 Game One… 1-3 vs Big 10MINNESOTA 5-1 Weekdays… 4-1 non-conf HF’s < 14 pts… 4-1 Game One

Friday, September 2Colorado St SERIES: Dog 3-0-1… 10-3 Weekdays… 2-8 RD’s 10 < ptsColorado 5-2 favs > 7 pts… 1-4 Game One… 2-5 favs vs revenge

Kansas St 3-0 Game One… 8-1 away bef BB HG… 5-1 L6 as DD dogsSTANFORD 5-0 Weekdays… 5-2 in 1st of BB HG… 0-3 Game One

Saturday, September 3Hawaii 4-0 dogs 37 > pts… 5-1 Game Two… 1-4 vs Big 10MICHIGAN 6-2 in 1st of 3+ HG… 1-5 vs MWC… 1-4 favs 38 > pts

Miami Ohio 4-1 dogs 24 > pts… 1-4 vs Big 10… 1-3 in 1st RGIOWA 10-0 favs 24 > pts… 7-2 Game One… 1-4 vs MAC

Bowl Green 7-2 Game One… 3-1 vs Big 10… 1-3 dogs 21 > ptsOHIO ST 1-9 in 1st of BB HG… 2-5 non-conf favs 24 > pts

UMass 0-4 Game One… 3-8 RD’s > 24 ptsFLORIDA 8-2 favs 31 > pts… 9-4 Game One… 1-4 1st of 3+ HG

Clemson SERIES: 4-1 L5… 8-3 away bef BB HG… 7-3 Game OneAUBURN 7-1 HD’s < 14 pts… 0-7 L7 vs ACC… 1-5 Game One

Ucla 7-0 L7 vs SEC… 7-3-1 Game One… 3-7 RD’s < 6 ptsTEXAS A&M 1-3 1st lined HG… 2-5 non-conf favs < 10 pts

Rutgers 5-0 Game One dogs… 3-1 vs Pac 12… 0-5 dogs > 20 ptsWASHINGTON 0-6 non-conf favs 17 > pts… 2-6 Game One favs

Lsu 0-4 RF’s 7 > pts… 0-3-1 in 1st RG… 3-7 vs non-conf revWisconsin 0-6 w/ non-conf rev… 1-6 Game One… 1-4 dogs > 7 pts

N Carolina 0-2 vs SEC L2Y… 1-6 dogs < 6 pts… 1-3 Game OneGeorgia 6-2 favs < 6 pts… 5-2 vs ACC… 1-3 Game One

Oklahoma 4-1 non conf favs 13 < pts… 2-5 away bef BB HGHOUSTON 5-0 dogs 8 > pts… 3-0 home vs Big 12… 1-6 Game One

Usc 3-0 Game One dogs… 3-0 vs SEC… 1-5 L6 neutral sitesAlabama 5-0 non conf favs 14 < pts… 7-1 Game One

Sunday, September 4Notre Dame 4-1 favs vs Big 12… 3-1 Game One… 6-2 favs 7 < ptsTEXAS 4-1 home w/ non-conf revenge… 2-6-1 L7 as HD’s

Monday, September 5Ole Miss 5-0 Game One… 4-1 non-conf RD’s… 7-2 WeekdaysFlorida St 4-1 Weekdays… 7-3 non conf favs 10 < pts

www.VegasInsider.com • page 3

SMARTBOX

College Football Games

2-MINUTE HANDICAP ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog

F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up

FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

All results are ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property

of PLAYBOOK™, PLAYBOOK.COM™ and PLAYBOOK.CUBE™, and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

The Trojans of Southern Californiaare 18-0 SU in their last eighteen

season-opening games since 1998.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

COME SEPTEMBER

NOTE: Next week’s PLAYBOOK (issue #3) will include a complete slate of NFL writeups and will be available after 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 9/6.

Opening week of a new football season is like the proverbial box of chocolates: you never know what you’re going to get. If you agree, then why not cautiously

wade into battle by backing teams led by head coaches who are proven winners in season-opening contests? Any coach can run up a gaudy SU record playing FCS foes in Game One of a new season. Troy Calhoun of Air Force, for example, has NEVER played a lined game to open the season in NINE years (he’s set to make it ten straight with Abilene Christian on 9/3).

With that mind, we opened our 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide Magazine and listed every head coach who has been with his current program for at least two seasons, plus the team’s ATS win-loss record against lined opponents in Game One. Then we eliminated the coaches who did not have at least two results in such games. Finally, we checked the Week One schedules on each team page to see if there were any valid plays – and here’s what we got (current lines courtesy of SportsOptions.com):

DATE TEAMS AND ATS W-L9/2 (1-0) Kansas State (+15.5) over STANFORD (1-3)9/3 (4-2) Clemson (-7) over AUBURN (1-2)9/3 (2-1) UL-LAFAYETTE (+20) over Boise State (0-2)

Several matchups with only a SLIGHT edge – 9/3 (1-0) Miami Ohio (+27.5) over IOWA (1-2)

And a pair of potential head-knockers – 9/3 (6-2) N’WESTERN (-6) vs. Western Michigan (2-1)9/5 (3-1) Florida State (-4) vs. Ole Miss (2-0)

– This material was taken from the ‘Football Fact Of The Day’ on the Playbook.com website and ‘ATS Fast Facts’ on the all-new Playbook CUBE app.

Marc Lawrence’s award-winning football selections are available all season long at:

VegasINSIDER.com


Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

Jimbo & The ‘Noles Put A Jumbo Hurtin’ On Ole Miss...Huskies Lassoed And Hog-Tied By Laramie Cowboys...

2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE

Thursday, September 1

Indiana over FLORIDA INT’L by 6 The 2016 NCAA football season offi cially started last Friday in Australia with Hawaii’s half-tick (+20.5) back-door cover of Cal, but this fi rst day of September really gets things going on the college gridiron. We begin in FIU Stadium where Mr. Wilson’s visiting Hoosiers arrive with a menacing offense that averaged 36 points and over 500 YPG in 2015. Unfortunately, their stop-unit (510 YPG) resembled more of a sitcom, allowing 40 or more points fi ve times, including 44 in a heartbreaking bowl loss to Duke. The Golden Panthers followed a similar trail, improving by 55 YPG on offense from the previous campaign but declining by 32 YPG on defense. Nine returning starters, including JR QB Alex McGough, should keep the Panthers’ attack prowling but the loss of four all-CUSA performers on an already suspect defense is concerning. As for the numbers, our well-informed database tells us that Indy is 5-0 ATS versus Conference-USA foes and 10-3 ATS as Game One favorites, while the Panthers are 4-1 ATS in weekday affairs but only 1-6 ATS as non-conference home dogs. However, we’re not comfortable laying this kind of wood with a defenseless unit into an avenging host (fell in Bloomington last season, 36-22). Thus, we say take it or leave it – or maybe concentrate on a 61-point total that should be anything but ‘down under.’

LOUISVILLE over Charlotte by 30 Both the Cardinals and 49ers appear well-fortifi ed in 2016 with each returning 18 starters but our veteran database delivers a far different picture in regard to the boatload of points being offered up tonight in Papa John’s Stadium. As much as we like Louie’s chances of being a key player in the ACC Atlantic behind dynamic SO QB Lamar Jackson (despite the presence of Clemson and FSU), we can’t ignore the fact that teams with 17 returning starters are just 6-11-1 ATS in lid-lifters since 1990 as favorites of more than 27 points, while squads with 17 returning starters are 20-8-1 ATS in openers over that same span as dogs of 27 or more points. Granted, the Redbirds won’t get off to a 0-3 start as they did last season, nor will not-so-sweet Charlotte snap a nasty losing skid that saw it drop its fi nal 10 games in 2015, but we have to side with our machine on this one and grab the infl ated spot. And if we ‘Hush’, we may even get more (line opened at 38.5 and is up to 40) by kick-off. You know what to do.

WAKE FOREST over Tulane by 13 After two straight 3-9 campaigns, Tulane ‘Waves’ goodbye to Curtis Johnson and will be puttin’ on the Fritz – as in head coach Willie Fritz – hoping to ignite a program that has seen the alleys just once in the past 13 years. And if Fritz’s past stops are any indication, the Green won’t be lean for long. His previous employment saw him transition Georgia Southern into FBS waters, posting a 17-7 SU and 14-8 ATS log in the process. He was also 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog in his two seasons at Statesboro. As for the Demon Deacons, they enter 2016 with a healthy dose of returning starters (17) but fi nd themselves in unfamiliar territory as they’re laying points at home for the fi rst time in four years. That does not bode well for Wake’s sake, especially given HC Dave Clawson’s 1-5 ATS career mark as non-conference chalk. And when you toss around the idea that the Deacons could have their sights set on a conference revenger with Duke on deck, it‘s easy to see why the Wave should pad their 10-6-1 ATS mark as road dogs of 16 or more points here tonight. You know where our ‘Green’ is going. We suggest you do the same.

WESTERN KENTUCKY over Rice 24 Here’s one for Ripley’s: high-scoring WKU was the only squad in the FBS that improved its defense by over 100 YPG last season. No, old Robert has nothing on us as Marc’s BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 points out that these squads, since 1990, own a stellar 50-29-2 ATS record in the fi rst month of the season when playing a conference foe. And that’s simply not fade material – not with the ‘Toppers 32-18 ATS in its last 50 league affairs, including 23-6 ATS in SU wins. And speaking of outright wins – Jeff Brohm’s boys dominated C-USA in 2015 (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 27.1 PPG. Yes, legendary QB Brandon Doughty has left for the next level but the offense (44 PPG each of the past two

seasons) should still be naughty behind an O-line that returns fi ve starters and 125 games of experience. Our database also reminds us that the Owls tend to nod off as large dogs, posting an 8-15-1 ATS record when taking 14 or more points, including 2-7-1 ATS in conference. Add in a 2-17 SU and 10-19 ATS mark as road dogs of more than 3 points in initial road games and you can see why we’re heading for the ‘Hills’ tonight in Bowling Green.

VANDERBILT over South Carolina by 7 We’re not thrilled that this line has shot up 2 points from the opening number – especially with the Commodores having dropped seven straight in this series and taking points in each of the last 16 meetings – but we’ll attribute that to the fact that the betting public got a gander at this year’s Playbook Football Preview Guide magazine and realized that the Commies are one of our top college ATS teams for 2016. Yes, along with the Black Book and Stat & Log Book, the magazine is fl ying off the shelves of Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas. And if you do own the ‘trifecta’ then you probably already know that Vandy is 3-1 ATS in this matchup since 2012 and 7-3 ATS with conference revenge. However, if you’re tackling this one on the blind, then you just may back a Gamecocks’ squad that is 0-4 ATS in road openers of late and 1-5 ATS as conference road dogs of 7 or less points. Our soon to be released Midweek Alert (we may as well get in all of the plugs now) does warn us that the Commodores are turnover prone under 3rd-year head coach Derek Mason’s command, but that’s a sad country tune they won’t be playing tonight in Nashville. Lay the points.

MINNESOTA over Oregon St by 10 In what may be the worst career move since Angus T. Jones insulted ‘Two and Half Men’ producer Chuck Lorre, Gary Andersen left the comfy confi nes of Camp Randall (20-7 SU in two seasons) for some Corvallis Beaver. Unfortunately for Andersen, the only thing that ended up on his face was a lot of egg as OSU posted a 2-10 SU record – its worst since 1995. The Gophers were also in new hands as defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys took over the head coaching job in mid-season after Jerry Kill resigned citing obvious health reasons. Minny performed well under Kill in weekday contests, posting a 5-1 ATS log, but Claeys’ fi rst order of business will be to turn around a winless 0-3 ATS mark as double-digit chalk over the last two years, and a 3-7 ATS log as non-conference performers. Anderson has no such trouble outside of league clashes, notching a 20-7-1 ATS record. His Beavers have also done well in weekday road affairs (4-0 ATS) along with a 4-1 ATS Game One log and 5-1 ATS mark as non-conference road dogs of 13 or less points. Simply put, this number looks too rich for a hungry bunch of Beavers. Thus, we’re damned if we don’t… grab the generous points, that is.

TENNESSEE over Appalachian St by 16 A 45-6 demolishing of Northwestern in the Outback Bowl and a total of four losses by a combined 17 points in 2015 has the Knoxville folk singing Rocky Top this fall. Even the AP Preseason Poll has the Vols pegged at No. 9 to start the year – only behind Alabama and LSU from the SEC. And why not? QB Joshua Dobbs is 14-5 SU in his last 19 starts while a group of underclassmen made 143 starts last season (2nd most in the nation). Yep, Butch’s boys carry a lot of weight heading into this campaign. Now while we don’t think the veteran Jones will have his group overlook an Appalachian State crew that has a win in Michigan on their resume, it’s hard not to look ahead to a matchup with Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway in nine days. That would be a mistake as the Mountaineers are loaded with experience, have won 17 of their last 19 games and have had only ONE losing season since 1994. No, we won’t call for the outright upset (we want no part of that Pat Summit stare – even from the grave site) but it would be no surprise to fi nd Orange backers in the red when this one is over.

Friday, September 2GEORGIA ST over Ball St by 8

The Panthers are still ‘Miles’ away from making noise in FBS play but 4th-year head coach Trent Miles’ Cats aren’t running out of lives on a weekly basis these days. In their fi rst two seasons in the FBS, Georgia State won only one game (and that was against FCS Abilene Christian). However, a season-ending four-game win streak in 2015 – including a 34-7 victory

(continued on next page)


GAME OF THE WEEKUPSETUPSET UPSETUPSET

Colorado St over Colorado by 6 There’s a lot of preseason hype about the Buffaloes returning 18 starters to Boulder but in order for Mike MacIntyre’s men to match last year’s 4-win total, they’re going to have to beat State for a second straight time – as only three foes with losing records dot the 2016 slate. Not so fast. Vegas may be drinking the Kool-Aid but this line tells us that the oddsmakers are not yet in mid-season form. They have the Buffs laying a touchdown to an in-state rival that has been bowling each of the past three seasons while the Bison, themselves, haven’t seen the lanes since 2007. And remember – these returning Buffaloes are the same herd that dropped eight of their fi nal nine games in 2015, and were outstatted by 20 YPG on the season. Even in their 27-24 win over the Rams last year, they lost the stat battle, 500-345. Need more? How about a series history that shows the dog 3-0-1 ATS. Or the Rams’ 10-3 ATS weekday log as opposed to the Buff’s 1-4 ATS Game One record and 2-5 ATS mark as favorites versus a foe with revenge. We must also point out the Colorado is 0-4-1 ATS the last fi ve times they’ve been favored away from Boulder (this game is being played in Denver) and that the Rams have owned the even years – the Buffaloes the odd – in this matchup since 2011. All that and still room for THE CLINCHER: MWC dogs who won four or more games the previous season are 9-1-1 ATS versus Pac-12 foes that won four or less games the previous campaign.

STANFORD over Kansas St by 7 AP College Football Player of the Year and Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey returns to Palo Alto for his junior year but there looks to be some ‘Klinks’ in the Cardinal armor as QB Kevin Hogan (started each of the last four years) and some of his heroes – namely three offensive and three defensive linemen starters – have left the Tree. And with six bowlers to open the season, including Kansas State, HC David Shaw fi nds himself in a spot more precarious than a POW camp. As it is, the Cardinal are 0-3 ATS in Game One while the Wildcats are 3-0 ATS in season openers, as well as 8-1 ATS away before back-to-back home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six as double-digit dogs. Bill Snyder also welcomes back 14 starters, including nine on a stop-unit that has spent all summer preparing for McCaffrey. (Wow, we thought game-planning for a white running back these days is akin to a pair of synchronized swimmers worried about a matchup against identical twins with Aspergers!) Better yet, our SMART BOX – who hears and sees everything – comes to our aid, and that leaves us no choice but to back the effi cient (52 of 55 red-zone conversions) and disciplined (least penalized team in the Big 12 each of the last three seasons) Wildcats – especially after this fi nal word from the well-oiled machine: KSU head coach Bill Snyder is 22-2 SU in season-opening games – with only one loss by more than a fi eld goal!

ARKANSAS ST over Toledo by 6 The Red Wolves and Rockets were originally scheduled for Saturday but have been moved up a day to accommodate national television. Arkansas State versus Toledo? Maybe ESPNU is tired of re-airing the CFB Team of the 1990’s or maybe this a marquee non-Power 5 matchup as ASU has been bowling each of the past fi ve seasons while the Rockets have visited the postseason fi ve of the past six years. Either way, it probably doesn’t matter

to the visitors who soared to a 6-0 SUATS record on the road in 2015. However, it remains to be seen if 1st-year head coach Jason Candle can keep the Toledo program lit following the departure of Matt Campbell (35-15 SU) who left for Iowa State. Candle does return eight starters on offense, including former starting QB Logan Woodside (redshirted last year), four offensive linemen and a pair of 900-yard running backs who tallied 19 TDs. His problem could be on defense as only four starters make their way back to the Glass Bowl. As for ASU, there appears to be no more musical chairs in Jonesboro as Blake Anderson (7-3 ATS at home) enters his third year at the helm stopping a carousal that saw fi ve different coaches head the program from 2010-2014. He returns seven to a stop-unit that scored eight defensive touchdowns in last season – tops in the nation. He may need one of those to avenge a 37-7 setback last season in Toledo but with this game moved to the Friday Night Lights, we’ll lean ever so slightly to the hosts.

Saturday, September 3

3� BEST BET

Needless to say the Jackets are on a ‘sting mission’ this year following a 3-win effort in 2015 (their lowest in 21 seasons) that saw them drop nine of their last 10 (go fi gure: the only win was against FSU). Lucky for Tech troops, HC Paul Johnson has always bounced back from poor cam-paigns. In the only two times prior to last year that Johnson suffered a losing season (one with Navy, one with Tech), his teams responded with eight wins. Noted renowned Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White pegged the Wreck as a strong ‘play on’ team this season at the West-gate SuperContest seminar this past weekend and we agree, adding that Johnson is 56-38-1 ATS in games away from home, including 3-1 ATS in season openers. It also doesn’t hurt that tonight’s opponent in Dublin is punchless BC. The Eagles laid a giant egg in ACC play last season, going 0-8 SU and 2-5-1 ATS thanks to an offense that ranked dead last among Power 5 teams. How bad was the BC attack, you ask? Well, besides being unable to score on a double date with Bill Cosby at a Walgreens, the Eagles were the fi rst FBS squad to drop back-to-back games despite allowing less than 10 points in each loss since 1989! That stat came courtesy of the 2016 Playbook Football Preview Guide but the one that won’t have BC’s eyes smiling tonight in Ireland is provided by THE CLINCHER: teams that were winless in conference games the previous season are 1-17 SU and 4-13-1 ATS if not at home in season-opening games the following year, including 0-4 SUATS in conference contests – with every loss by 24 or more points.

Georgia Tech over Boston College by 14

MICHIGAN over Hawaii by 36 From the Outback to the Outhouse. At least that’s what the linesmakers think as this 40-point number suggests the Rainbow Warriors are about to get the crap kicked out of them. Certainly this trip to Ann Arbor, after visiting Australia, is a concern but 40-point home favorites in college football are certainly not our cup of tea, nor should they be yours as evidenced by a 73-89-2 ATS mark dating back to 1981. The Wolverines, themselves, haven’t garnered the cash when laying this kind of wood, posting a 1-4 ATS record as favorites of 38 or more points while the Rainbow Warriors have found the pot of gold in this role, notching a 4-0 ATS log as dogs of 37 or more points. Michigan is also 1-5 ATS versus the Mountain West while Hawaii is 5-1 ATS in Game Two of the season the last six years. The loss of DC D.J. Durkin could hurt early but really the only question here is if Jim Harbaugh wants to make a point as things are looking up in the Big House. Sure his three toughest games are on the road (Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State) but this year’s slate of opponents fi nished a combined 57-86 ATS in 2015. It’s good to be Jim. Maybe just not today if the alum are looking for a payday. Your call.

IOWA over Miami Ohio by 20We realize that the RedHawks are fl ying into a dangerous nest today in Iowa City after the Hawkeyes ended 2015 – one with National Championship aspirations – on a sour note (a last-second loss in the Big Ten title game followed by a no-show in the Rose Bowl). However, we have Miami Ohio groomed as a surprise team in the MAC this season as HC Chuck Martin has inked the best recruiting class in the conference over the past two years, grabbing a total of twenty-nine 3-star athletes. Yes, the RedHawks are 1-21 SU versus winning opposition the last fi ve seasons while the Hawkeyes are 10-0 ATS as chalk of 24 or more points but Martin’s men are a competitive 4-1 ATS as dogs of 24 or more points. Meanwhile, Captain Kirk’s crew is 1-4 ATS versus MAC foes and 2-6 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back home games. In addition, this is also the most wood the conservative hosts have laid since 2005. Like we said earlier, this is a tough spot for the visitors against Jim Thorpe Award winner Desmond King and company, but with 10 starters back on offense and the SMART BOX on our side, we’re seeing ‘Red’ today in Kinnick Stadium.

over at Georgia Southern as 20-point dogs – sent the six-win Panthers to the aptly named Cure Bowl. We look for that momentum to continue tonight in the Georgia Dome as Miles’ men are 5-0 ATS in their last fi ve non-conference affairs while the visiting Redbirds are 2-18 SU in road openers. And do you really want to back a program that may no longer be in ‘Lembo’ put in pure limbo after seeing its head coach take a six-fi gure-per-year pay cut to become an assistant coach at Maryland? Yes, the only time the Panthers were asked to lay more than 3 points was in last year’s home opener against Charlotte where they promptly lost, 23-20, as 7-point chalk. But we still think the value is with the 16-returning starter felines.

TEMPLE over Army by 21 The Cadets are certainly a site for Philadelphia eyes. Following a 6-0 SUATS mashing from 2008-2013, Army has been AWOL from the Owls’ slate the previous two campaigns but return just in time for Matt Rhule and company to build on last season’s 10-win bowl effort. Who wouldn’t welcome a squad that is 1-24 SU and 4-20 ATS in their last 25 true roadies? Please, don’t send this squad to the Middle East to face ISIS. Yes, they have 16 returning starters in 2016 but unless any of them are named Patton or Grant, we’re not interested. In the Black Knights’ defense, they did suffer seven losses last year by a touchdown or less, but with QB P.J. Walker back for his senior season in Temple and the Owls 5-0-1 ATS in lined season openers, we’re not about to shoot ourselves in the foot and fall for the double-digit trap. It’s a lay as the stumbling visitors, once again, hit the Temple of Doom.


NORTHWESTERN over Western Michigan by 13 It looks to be a classic case of offense versus defense in Evanston as the high-fl ying Broncos return eight starters to an attack that accounted for 36 points and 491 YPG in 2015. It begins with the combination of SO QB Zach Terrell (3,500 passing yards / 29 TDs / INTs) and his go-to WR Corey Davis (1,400 receiving yards). Meanwhile, the Wildcats will rely on a stop-unit and its nine returnees that limited foes to 19 PPG and 319 YPG last season. We are big fans of Broncos’ head coach P.J. Fleck and will ride him plenty this season but the problem here is WMU’s feeble 4-31 SU mark in Big Ten battles, including 15 losses in a row – especially after looking at Northwestern’s 11-1 SU record versus MAC opposition, We must point out, though, the ‘Cats have dropped seven straight games to the number versus this conference. Still, Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in season openers the last fi ve years and will be anxious to remove the stain from a 45-6 thrashing by Tennessee in last year’s Outback Bowl. Don’t look for this one to come down to the fi nal play as Pat Fitzgerald’s Cardiac Cats will save a few lives for conference play. An easy lay given the reasonable line.

OHIO ST over Bowling Green by 21 The Buckeyes are anxious to dispel the ‘Urban’ legend that a team with only three starters back on both sides of the ball will struggle early on in the campaign. However, our legendary database reminds us that Meyer and company were only 1-6 ATS as home favorites last season – and that was with an experienced squad! It’s also quick to point out that the hosts are 1-9 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back homers and 2-5 ATS as non-conference chalk of 24 or more points. As for the Falcons, they turn to new head coach Mike Jinks who replaces the departed Dino Babers (Syracuse). Jinks was the assistant head coach at Texas Tech – where scoring was a national pastime – and should fi t right into a program that tallied 42 PPG and 547 YPG last year. He should also like the fact that his BeeGees have won 36 games over the past four seasons and are a mighty respectable 7-9 SU in games versus Big Ten foes since 2001, including 8-4 ATS as a visitor. Now while we can’t expect too many ‘Hi-Jinks’ in the Horseshoe, we can expect the visitors to improve to 8-2 ATS in Game One scenarios. That’s our take.

PENN ST over Kent St by 17 The Lions are fi nally at full strength (85 scholarship players) but only return fi ve starters to a defense that took a step back in 2015 after making huge strides the previous season. However, they probably couldn’t have hand-picked a better opening-day opponent as the Flashes ended last year dead last in scoring offense (13.1 PPG) and are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS against the Big Ten since 2004, having been outscored 396-34. Then why are we leaning towards the overmatched visitors? For openers, Kent is loaded with returning starters (18 overall, including 10 on offense) and that puts them in this nifty angle: double-digit dogs with 17 or more returning starters are a profi table 50-35-1 ATS in season lid-lifters since 1990. In addition, we’re not about to lay this kind of wood with a team that barely averaged today’s posted number (23 PPG) and was held to 21 points or less seven times last season. New OC Joe Moorhead fi gures to add life to the Nits’ feeble attack but in what fi gures to be a close-to-the-vest, grind-it-out affair, the points become the play this afternoon in Happy Valley.

WEST VIRGINIA over Missouri by 16 The Mountaineers obviously have a little John Denver in them considering they went 6-1 SU at home in 2015 and 1-4 SUATS in road games. The Tigers also belong at home as they showed no road rage last season by posting a 1-4 SUATS record in true roadies. Along the way, the Hilllbillies saved HC Dana Holgorsen’s job (victories in fi ve of your last six games, including a bowl win will do that for you) and look to build on nine returning offensive starters. including SR QB Skyler Howard, who tossed for 3,145 yards and 26 TDs. The Tigers, on the other hand, are in transition mode as the Gary Pinkel era comes to a screeching halt. Taking over the reigns is former DC Barry Odom who will turn to Josh Heupel (Heisman runner-up with the Sooners in 2000 and most recently offensive coordinator at Utah State) to instill life in an offense that has gone south in dramatic fashion. In two short years, Mizzou’s attack went from averaging 39 points and 491 YPG to 14 points and 281 YPG. And until they can prove the new blood is not simply a dose of plasma, we’ll have to fade them against high-scoring opponents – especially when the foe is 10-2 ATS in lined openers over the last dozen years. Take us home.

UTEP over New Mexico St by 3 We would be on the the Aggies like Ryan Lochte on a gas station bathroom door in Rio if it were not for the fact that star RB Larry Rose III (1,651 yards and 14 TD’ last season) is likely sitting this one out with a hernia. Still, we’ll lean towards the revenging visitors who outyarded UTEP in a gut-wrenching 50-47 home loss last season. Why, you ask, considering the Miners probably sent a limo to Las Cruces to pick up a New Mexico State squad they have beaten like a drum since 2009. In fact, six of the 17 total wins UTEP has garnered over the last seven seasons have come at the hands of the Aggies. The problem

we have in backing the hosts is simple: they dress up as signifi cant favorites after having worn dog clothing in all but one game last season. In addition, four of UTEP’s last fi ve wins have been by the grace of a fi eld goal. Five new assistants, including coordinators on both sides of the ball, should help in time but for now we have no problem fading a team that allowed 90 YPG more than it gained last season. No lie… it’s a must take.

Smu over NORTH TEXAS by 7After fi ve years under head coach Dan McCarney yielded only one winning season and culminated in a disastrous 1-11 effort in 2015, the North Texas ‘Green’ look to reclaim some of their ‘Mean’ with the arrival of new leader Seth Littrell, former offensive coordinator at North Carolina. Considered one of the brightest offensive minds in college football, the thirty-seven year old Littrell will have his work cut out for him in Denton, inheriting a squad that featured 36 non-scholarship walk-on players last year and a defense that ranked dead last in 3rd down defensive conversion effi ciency (.524). But while the stop-unit may require some major fi ne-tuning, the offense looks to be in good hands under new OC Graham Harrell. A former star QB at Texas Tech, Harrell was praised by his coaching staff as ‘an offensive coordinator on the fi eld’, and word is he’s incorporating a similar ‘Air Raid’ attack with UNT. At fi rst glance, it’s somewhat puzzling to see an SMU team that’s gone just 4-21 SU in its last 25 away games laying more than a touchdown on the road… especially after allowing 502 YPG on defense in 2015 under fi rst-year head coach Chad Morris. However, Morris revitalized a stagnant Ponies’ attack, improving by 17 points and 114 yards per game from the previous season. That same offense returns QB Matt Davis (former 4-Star Texas A&M recruit who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and tossed for more than 2,200), the top two running backs, and the top eight pass targets (fi ve WRs, a tight end, and two RBs). Overall, 16 starters are back for Morris’ second year, and the O-line returns seven players who started at least one game last year. Okay, NOW we see why the Mustangs opened as double-digit chalk in this matchup! Even so, we’re not quite sure which side gets the cabbage call here. Instead, we’ll look for a well-lit scoreboard as these two porous defenses get run ragged on a hot Texas night.

MISSISSIPPI ST over South Alabama by 21When a Sun Belt team invades the home turf of an SEC power on opening weekend, the result usually resembles the aftermath of a U.S. airstrike on an ISIS truck convoy trying to sneak out of town. However, Joey Jones’ Jaguars aren’t exactly smart-bomb fodder. After bowling for the fi rst time in school history in 2014, South Alabama was gutted by graduation and returned only fi ve total starters last season. Despite the loss of talent, though, Jones’ troops ended the year just one win away from being bowl eligible for a second straight campaign. The highlight of the season came in Game Three when the Jags knocked off a solid San Diego State squad at Qualcomm Stadium as whopping 17.5-point underdogs, gaining a season-high 511 yards in the stunning 34-27 upset of the Aztecs. And you can rest assured that Jones and his team still have a 35-3 home loss to these Bulldogs in 2014 fresh on their minds. Who knows what’s going through MSU head coach Dan Mullen’s head? Not only did he lose record-setting QB Dak Prescott (who doubled as the team’s leading rusher last year), his leading tacklers and best interior linemen also moved on to the NFL. To top it off, DC Manny Diaz left after only one season to join Mark Richt at Miami and State’s SEC opener against South Carolina awaits on deck. Laying 30 or more points with a team in transition like this can be hazardous to one’s wealth… especially when Game One double-digit non-conference college home favorites with a conference game on deck are a miserable 3-16-1 ATS if they’re facing an avenging opponent. And don’t look for the Bulldogs to win the turnover battle, not after recovering just ONE fumble last year, worst in the nation. Mullen and MSU will undoubtedly prevail on the scoreboard but we’ll take the big points here with Double-J and his Jags.

OHIO U over Texas St by 20It’s the ‘Battle of the Bobcats’ this afternoon at Peden Stadium. Much like the aforementioned Dan Mullen, Ohio head coach Frank Solich enters the new season after being hammered in the returning starter department. His Bobcats welcome back only six starters, including two linemen, on each side of the ball. Don’t expect Solich to be rattled, though – his Ohio squad has not suffered a losing season since 2006, and Solich is currently the winningest active coach in the MAC. It also helps that the Bobbies are 11-2 SU in their last 13 home openers, including 4-0 SUATS the last four years. The visiting Bobcats from San Marcos, Texas, arrive after bidding farewell to founding father Dennis Franchione and hiring new head coach Everett Withers, who led James Madison to a pair of FCS Playoff appearances in his fi nal two seasons with the Dukes. And while Withers may have honed his craft under the watchful eyes of such coaching luminaries as Urban Meyer, Mack Brown, and Jeff Fisher, our all-knowing database tells us the problem today is this: fi rst-year head coaches who inherit a team that won four or fewer games last year are just 29-49-3 ATS in debut games when facing a foe that recorded six or more wins the previous campaign. As tempting as that stat may be, we’re not going to risk the rent money on an Ohio

(continued on next page)


NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

offense that was completely dominated by the ‘D’ in their spring game, 62-18. Was that result a case of rapid defensive improvement, or a serious lack of offense? We do know this much: with a pair of road games versus Power 5 teams Kansas and Tennessee on deck, it would be no surprise to see Solich sitting his starters on the pines late in the game if the Bobbies own any sort of signifi cant lead. Best to look elsewhere.

KENTUCKY over Southern Miss by 3So is Southern Miss really back? After the program was nearly buried by a mysterious 4-32 SU run over a three-year period (2012-14), the Eagles roared back in dramatic fashion last season to post a 9-5 record, which included a berth in the CUSA Playoff game and a trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl. However, the architect of that comeback, HC Todd Monken, left Hattiesburg to take the offensive coordinator job with Tampa Bay in the NFL. USM may not skip a beat, though, with the hiring of Jay Hopson, a 24-year collegiate coaching veteran (head man at Alcorn State the past four seasons), and twice a former member of the Southern Miss coaching staff. Hopson’s defensive units with the Golden Eagles led Conference-USA in scoring defense each of his three seasons as defensive coordinator, and the offense should be in decent shape with the return of QB Nick Mullens – the CUSA preseason Offensive Player of the Year – and three offensive line starters. Meanwhile, the critical fourth year of the Mark Stoops era in Lexington kicks off with plenty of promise. Behind a defense that’s made solid gains each of the past two seasons and RB Boom Williams, who set a single-season school record by averaging 7.1 yards per carry last year, the Wildcats can bank on a favorable schedule which features seven home games, with no back-to-back road trips. They’ll need to bring their ‘A’ game (if they have one) to this season-opening fray tonight, but we’re not convinced it will happen. For openers, UK is a lousy 8-12 ATS as chalk in games before facing Florida, and we’re not comfortable laying a touchdown here with a much bigger affair against the Gators looming on the horizon. Then there is Kentucky’s feeble 16-28 ATS mark as favorites of less than 8 points, not what we want to see when taking on a USM squad that’s posted a respectable 10-6 ATS record as a single-digit dog in SEC showdowns – while allowing just under 21 PPG in those contests. After closing out 2015 on a dreadful 0-7 SU slide that saw the Mildcats log a sixth consecutive losing season, the clock is ticking for Stoops and his troops. Grab the spot in what looks to be a fi eld-goal game.

ARKANSAS over Louisiana Tech by 17Big news here is the suspension of new Louisiana Tech QB Ryan Higgins, who is not expected to start today due to disciplinary reasons. Both of these teams took major hits during the offseason. Arkansas must replace all-SEC QB Brandon Allen (3,340 yards, 30 TDs and 8 INTs) and all SEC RB Alex Collins (1,577 yards, 20 TDs) on offense while Skip Holtz has to plug in eight new starters on defense, as well as two new assistant coaches. This is a critical season for Hogs HC Bret Bielema. Yes, he’s taken his team to consecutive bowls, winning both, but he’s still two games under .500 after three years in Fayetteville. Razorback fans are hoping new defensive assistant Paul Rhoads (a former defensive coordinator and head coach at Iowa State the past eight seasons) can make the Razorbacks a force on that side of the ball and complement their smash-mouth run game. After stumbling in his fi rst year with Louisiana Tech, a pair of 9-win seasons have followed for Skip Holtz since, including two straight bowl wins for the fi rst time in school history. However, La Tech seniors made 166 combined starts last season, the 4th most in the nation. That’s a lot of lost experience, and Skippy will once again have to rely on his famous ‘dog-log’ in order to help keep this team on a forward path. Holtz is the best in college football when it comes to taking points – 39-19-1 ATS, including 15-4 ATS during the fi rst three games of the season – and we think the current line of Arkansas -26 is a boat load of points for a back-to-back bowl winner and coach that is 5-1 ATS as a puppy of 20 or more points. By comparison, Bielema is just 3-7 ATS as non-conference chalk of 21 or more points, plus his Hogs are facing a much bigger contest next week when they travel to TCU. With Higgins a non-starter last season, we’ll skip to the pay window with Holtz and his Bulldogs.

FLORIDA over UMass by 39It’s a good bet that Massachusetts head coach Mark Whipple would gladly trade places today with Mr. Whipple from the Charmin commercials because the only things that are going to get squeezed at the Swamp today will be those wearing Minutemen uniforms. According to SB Nation, UMass returns less of last year’s production than any team in the FBS – not a good sign for a program transitioning out of the MAC and into the land of Independents. Worse, they’ll be going up against

a Gators defense that looks to be one of the fi ercest in the land, led by Caleb Brantley and a 10-deep defensive line loaded with 5 and 4-star talent. However, it’s the Florida offense that will need to step forward here, one that slipped 7 PPG and 34 YPG last season under new head coach Jim McElwain, and managed just 24 total points in a season-ending 3-game losing streak. Year Two found two new quarterbacks battling for starting honors with redshirt sophomore Luke Del Rio winning out over Purdue transfer Austin Appleby. As for UMass, JUCO QB Andrew Ford, a former 3-star recruit with Virginia Tech, is expected to replace departed signal-caller Blake Frohnapfel. The visitors bring some awful ATS numbers into this mismatch, going 3-8 ATS of late as road dogs of more than 24 points, and 0-18 SU (2-7 ATS) in non-conference road games – with the last nine losses coming by an average of 35.1 PPG. It’s more of a mixed bag for the Gators as they’re 8-2 ATS as chalk of 31 or more points, but just 2-8 ATS in their last ten non-conference home games. The bottom line is Florida has won its season opener in comfortable fashion each of the last two years by scores of 65-0 and 61-13. We’d be shocked if today’s outcome is any different.

Clemson over AUBURN by 12It’s been quite a slide for Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn. After winning numerous Coach of the Year awards in his fi rst season in 2013 – a 12-2 campaign that saw his team lose to Florida State in the BCS Championship game – Malzahn and his Tigers have been headed in the opposite direction. Arguably the most disappointing team in college football last season, the Tigers have put their ‘genius’ head coach squarely on the hot seat entering his fourth year. The only drama playing out in Clemson this season is the Tigers’ quest to wipe away memories of unfi nished business in 2016 when they lost the national title to Alabama. Clemmie landed at No. 2 in the AP preseason Poll – their highest slot ever – and should keep rolling behind Heisman hopeful QB Deshaun Watson and the 5th youngest team in the FBS last season (played 28 freshmen). Tonight’s game, though, is certainly no gimmee: the Tigers are just 9-12 SUATS versus the SEC, including 5-9 SUATS away from home and 3-7 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points. But while Auburn’s 7-1 ATS mark as a home dog of less than 14 points looks promising, the Tigers have lost seven in a row to ACC foes, plus they’re only 1-5 ATS in their last six Game Ones. Malzahn is hoping new DC Kevin Steele (LSU) can patch a defense that’s surrendered 408 YPG under his tenure. We’ll know soon enough after they try to contain Watson – this year’s Playbook Football Preview cover boy and the only quarterback to ever have 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a single season. Yes, it’s in our DNA to side with the home dog Tigers but this week’s SMART BOX says otherwise. Clemson covers its fourth straight in the series and improves to 8-3 ATS in Game One.

Ucla over TEXAS A&M by 3Wow. Not only are a lot of experts on the various preview shows talking up UCLA as a potential spoiler in the Pac-12 race, respected Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White has penciled the Bruins into this season’s College Football Playoffs. Of course, they’ll need to claim the Pac-12 title fi rst, something they haven’t done since 1998. That’s a tall order considering Jim Mora’s squad lost three of its fi nal four games last year, then lost eight players to the NFL Draft (third most behind Ohio State and Clemson). But with nine starters back on defense, and young phenom quarterback Josh “Chosen” Rosen and RB Soso Jamabo (6.1 YPR) leading the charge, UCLA could very well climb back into the double-digit win zone in 2016. The Bruins certainly own most of the ATS edges in this afternoon’s contest. They’re on a 7-0 ATS run versus SEC foes, and also own a 7-3-1 ATS in Game One. Meanwhile, the Aggies are 1-3 ATS in their fi rst lined home game, 2-5 ATS versus the Pac-12, and 2-5 ATS as non-conference favorites of fewer than 10 points. Still, A&M ain’t no pushover. The Aggies landed prized former LSU DC John Chavis to tighten things up defensively in 2015 (improved 71 YPG) and Oklahoma graduate transfer Trevor Knight assumes the quarterback reins in 2016, prompting national college football guru Joe Lisi to pick A&M to boldly win the SEC West this season. They may pull it off in the end, but expect them to have their hands full here against a UCLA squad that’s gone 14-4 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in season openers the last 18 years.

TULSA over San Jose St by 3Spartans have been recruiting their tails off under 4th-year head coach Ron Caragher (Twenty-two 3* recuits) and the results are beginng to show. Back this year is starting QB Kenny Potter, along with his top two WRs, leading RB and four offensive linemen who have made a total of 74 starts. Meanwhile, new DC Ron English, former Eastern Michigan mentor, arrives to shore up a defense that’s allowed more than 5 yards per rush each of the last three seasons. However, SJSU will need to slow down the Hurricane’s high impact aerial game (333 YPG) to have a chance today. As promised, 2nd-year head coach, and former Baylor OC, Phil Montgomery managed to ignite a stalled Tulsa program with a young but experienced roster (went from two wins


to a 6-win bowl campaign), and his ‘full-speed for 60 minutes’ attack led by QB Dane Evans improved by 95 yards and 8 PPG. Evans is back but a word of caution: the Hurricane managed to score 34 or more points in 11 of their 13 contests in 2015 – but allowed 30 or more points in as many games! Toss in the fact that Tulsa is a wallet-depleting 5-13 ATS at home the last three years, and a feeble 2-9-1 ATS in non-conference clashes, and our best advice for getting involved in this lid-lifter is to take it or leave it.

WASHINGTON over Rutgers by 28A lot of eyes have been focused on Washington head coach Chris Petersen the past two seasons. Could a coach that enjoyed such amazing success with Boise State while playing in the Mountain West Conference duplicate the feat while directing a second-tier team in the ultra-competitive Pac-12? Well, yes and no. We doubt that any coach playing in this loop could match Petersen’s 92-12 SU mark that he compiled in eight seasons with the Broncos. But while his 15-12 start with the Huskies doesn’t look so great by comparison, he owns three more wins than former HC Steve Sarkisian could muster in his fi rst two years at U-Dub. Petersen will sure be glad to welcome back QB Jake Browning, who started 12 of 13 games as a freshman in 2015, fi nishing with 2,955 passing yards and 16 TDs. Also back are RB Myles Gaskin (1,302 yards and 14 TDs) and four starting O-linemen. Factor in a defense that improved by 6 points and 59 yards per game in Year Two and suddenly Petersen has the look of a coach we simply don’t want to fade. Not with Rutgers, a Big Ten team in name only: the red-faced Knights were outscored and outyarded by conference foes last season, -20.5 PPG and -167 YPG, worst in the Big Ten. While Tony Soprano’s favorite school has been a reliable 5-0 ATS as a Game One dog, the Knights are a money-burning 0-5 ATS as underdogs of more than 20 points. And like we pointed out in the Texas State vs. Ohio U contest, fi rst-year head coaches with teams that won four or fewer games the previous season – like Rutgers’ Chris Ash – are just 29-49-3 ATS in debut games when facing a foe that recorded six or more wins the year before. With fi ve of the Huskies’ fi rst seven games at home in 2016, color these dogs dangerous.

Lsu over Wisconsin by 3Wisconsin hosts No. 5 LSU at iconic Lambeau Field, which is 137 miles from Madison – considerably more than the 1,119 miles from Baton Rouge to Green Bay. If you make Lambeau a home fi eld (and we do) in this game, then you’ll like knowing the Badgers are 16-7 ATS of late as home underdogs. They are also a jaw-dropping 35-0 SU at home versus non-conference foes since 2003. Once known for its trademark smashmouth run game, Wisky’s defense took center stage under new head coach Paul Chryst in 2015. Behind the top scoring stop-unit in the land, the Badgers allowed the fewest plays per game defensively (60.8) in the nation, and put the offense in position to outyard conference foes by 108 YPG, best in the Big Ten. As for the Bayou Bengals, head coach Les Miles’ threat to leave LSU last year once again never took place. With Miles fi nally halting a trend that had seen his Tigers regress each of the previous three years in the SEC West standings, the return of Heisman frontrunner Leonard Fournette at RB and 17 other starters has the LSU hype machine running at full tilt to start the season. Don’t buy into it here, though. Like Tennessee, the Tigers are carrying a lot of added weight this season and it starts here as double digit chalk against a home lovin’ bunch of Badgers that are 73-9 SU in the state of Wisconsin – with only ONE LOSS by more than 10 points! A trip to the ATS archives tells us the Mad Hatter has gone 0-4 ATS of late as road chalk of 7 or more points, 0-3-1 ATS in LSU’s fi rst road game of the season, and 3-7 ATS vs non-conference revenge (Tigers beat the Badgers, 28-24, to open 2014). We’ll gladly take the big spot with a Wisconsin team that stands 30-10-1 ATS as a dog anywhere when taking 7 or more points, including 14-2-1 ATS when seeking revenge. Bucky Badger may not get to celebrate the outright win but he should pocket the loot before heading back to Madison.

Georgia over North Carolina by 8Our SEC scout, Jaybird The Bulldog, has been looking forward to this day for the last fi ve years. Why? Because former Georgia HC Mark Richt is gone. “We’ve always had the athletes, we’ve always had the talent… but we lost way too many close games because of poor coaching. Mark my words… you will no longer see a complacent Georgia football team.” Yes, a new era begins in the Georgia Dome this afternoon where HC Kirby Smart – a starter at safety for the Bulldogs from 1995-98 and DC at Alabama for the past nine seasons – now walks in Richt’s shoes after the 15-year veteran left for Miami with his 146-51 SU record between the hedges. Smart will be glad to see QB Greyson Lambert, who started 12 of 13 games last season for UGA, and set the NCAA record for completion percentage in a game when he connected on 24-of-25 passes against South Carolina. And powerful running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel should be salivating at the prospect of facing a UNC defense that was decimated for 645 yards rushing (not a misprint) in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl loss to Baylor. On the other side of the ball, the Dawgs led the SEC in pass defense in 2015 and all four starters in the secondary return. That should pose a challenge for new North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky, a former 4-star recruit from Ohio,

who backed up departed Marquise Williams the past two seasons, and completed 40 of 47 passes for 555 yards and six touchdowns. In addition, RB Eliah Hood is one of only fi ve returning Power 5 running backs who rushed for 1,000 yards, scored 10 TDs and averaged 6.0 YPR last season. With high expectations and weapons aplenty for both sides, we asked our all-knowing database for advice. The tale of the tap? UNC is 6-13 SU versus SEC foes, 0-2 SUATS versus the SEC under HC Larry Fedora, and 1-6 ATS as a dog of fewer than 6 points…while Georgia stands 6-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 6 points and 5-2 ATS versus the ACC. Interestingly, this is the fi rst of seven games where North Carolina faces a team with a new head coach and staff. It won’t be one they’ll want to remember.

Oklahoma over Houston by 6All things considered, this could be the most intriguing matchup of Week One. The annual OU love affair begins with the Sooners making their 17th straight preseason poll, occupying the No. 3 spot in the AP Top 25. But this year it’s defi nitely not business as usual for the Cougars, who land at No. 15 – ranked in the AP preseason poll for the fi rst time since 1991, The credit for Houston’s resurgence goes to 2nd-year head coach Tom Herman, who made such a splash in his debut season that the UH brain trust had to immediately pony up the big bucks to make sure Herman didn’t accept one of the many offers that came his way after posting a 13-1 season (Cougars’ sole loss was by a fi eld goal) and a 38-24 bowl win over Florida State. A pair of dynamic quarterbacks should keep both offenses moving today. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfi eld accounted for 4,105 combined passing and rushing yards and 43 TDs, while the electrifying Greg Ward claimed the Earl Campbell award presented to the best player from the state of Texas. The ‘home team’ Cougars (game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston) have gone 5-0 ATS of late as dogs of 8 or more points and they’re 3-0 ATS in home games versus the Big 12. Meanwhile, the Sooners have struggled to a 2-5 ATS effort on the road before back-to-back home games, plus they’re only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Game Ones. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Cougars have forced 108 turnovers, the most in the nation, and of their 11 regular season losses in 38 games since 2012, only ONE has been by more than 8 points. Houston was also one of just two schools to play at least four ranked opponents last season and remain undefeated in the matchups, with three of Houston’s wins over ranked opponents coming by double-digits! Cats change clothes and become dangerous dogs today in this solid take.

NEBRASKA over Fresno St by 24Welcome to the Battle of the Hot Seats! To say that the natives are growing restless in both Lincoln and Fresno is an understatement. Let’s start with the Huskers, whose brain trust decided to evict HC Bo Pelini at the end of the 2015 season despite a 67-27 record in seven seasons (vis-à-vis Ohio State dumping Eldon Miller). Pelini also never won fewer than 9 games in a season (went 9-3 the year he was axed) and he took Nebraska to a bowl every season. Enter new HC Mike Riley from Oregon State. In our 2015 Playbook College Conference Preview, Dave Forbes noted: “This is NOT a good fi t – for him or the school. Nebraska’s niche in college football is a power running game with a heavy dose of option and QBs that can help out on the ground. That ain’t Mike Riley’s bag and never has been.” The new-look Cornhuskers never got above .500 in 2015, winning only three Big Ten games. Riley’s debut saw Nebraska’s skein of 29 straight season-opening victories snapped in a loss to BYU. Even more excruciating, it was the fi rst of FIVE one-possession losses for the hard-luck Huskers. The season concluded with a bizarre bowl invite for 5-7 NU, all because there weren’t enough 6-6 teams to fi ll the schedule. In Fresno, the 19-4 start under head coach Tim DeRuyter has since turned into the 10-19 effort since, and on the heels of a disappointing 3-win effort last season, Fresno has now suffered back-to-back losing campaigns. Riley hasn’t made major changes; he’s got 15 starters back including QB Tommy Armstrong (33 career starts), the fi rst player in NU history with two 3,000-yard total offense seasons. The Bulldogs return 12 starters but they’ll have to work with a new offensive and defensive coordinator. Yikes. The fans at Memorial Stadium (347 consecutive sellouts) are probably so bloodthirsty by now that if the Huskers aren’t covering at the half, we could see a genuine human sacrifi ce at midfi eld. Stay away from this one…

Alabama over Usc by 3At fi rst, this looks like a very tough call. After all, Alabama’s Nick Saban – who is well on his way to Bear Bryant status – currently stands 7-1 ATS in lined season openers, 5-1 ATS at neutral sites, and owns an average win margin in neutral site games of 19 points. But you know what? We have this feeling that sooner or later, Saban and Lane Kiffi n aren’t going to be able to plug in a new quarterback each season without some growing pains… and we think it starts here. And thanks to our ever-reliable database, like the group Boston once sang, it’s more than a feeling. The nearly forgotten Trojans (ranked No. 20) bring along a 3-0 ATS mark as Game One dogs, a 3-0 ATS record against the SEC, and an 11-4 ATS mark as dogs of 9 or more points. Not too shabby! USC is also a highly successful 12-2 SU of late in road openers and, perhaps best of all, the Trojans are the answer to this

Marc Lawrence’s award-winning football selections are available all season long at:

VegasINSIDER.com

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.


week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. Strong-armed QB Max Browne and his 6’ 4” play-making backup Sam Darnold get to line up behind USC’s entire starting offensive line (2 seniors and 3 juniors). Alabama stands 0-2 ATS versus Pac-12 foes, and thanks to winning the national title and being ranked in the Top 5 of the AP preseason poll for the 8th straight season, a huge bulls-eye is painted squarely on the back of Saban’s troops. Don’t shed a tear for the Tide: Alabama freshmen started a combined 57 games last season, meaning the off-season losses they incurred will be fi lled in like magic putty. But tonight on a national stage in The House That Jerry Built, they escape by the skin of their tusks.

Boise St over UL-LAFAYETTE by 11After a run of four consecutive 9-4 seasons, and behind a rash of senior starter losses, the Ragin’ Cajuns ran out of creole last year, suffering their fi rst losing season in the Mark Hudspeth era. With Hudspeth back along with 13 starters, UL-Lafayette becomes a certifi ed ‘mission team’ in 2016 – and we’re not about to argue. Attention, In-game players: Under Hudspeth, ULL is 28-3 SU in games when leading after the 1Q, 31-2 when leading at the half, and 35-1 when leading after the 3Q. For you conventional players, we think eight consecutive SU wins in their last eight home openers make these Cajuns very live dogs for today’s nooner. We have Boise State pegged as a Top 10 ATS team this season but we’re holding off here, primarily because of the Broncos’ bigger battle with Washington State the following week. Besides, 20-point road chalk is on a 0-6 ATS losing skid in season openers the last four years. Don’t forget that this time of year in the deep south of Louisiana, the humidity is downright unbearable, and it could easily weaken some Bronco players’ legs late in the contest. The coup de grace comes from our very own SMART BOX, which calls for a play on the Cajuns. Again, who are we to argue?

ARIZONA over Byu by 4The Cougars take to the road with a new head coach for the fi rst time in 12 years. Enter Kalani Sitake, who takes over for the departed Bronco Mendenhall. The rookie skipper should have a lot to like about his team. BYU will feature a strong, decorated two-headed QB tandem of Taysom Hill and Tanner Magnum, all fi ve starters returning on the offensive line, and 65 returning lettermen to insure plenty of experience. Okay, now all they need to do is win a game on the Pac-12 road where the Cougars stand 5-13 SU since 1986. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez and his Wildcats are anxious to erase memories of a season that went to hell in a hand bag following a 3-0 start last year. A plethora of injuries forced 22 different players to start on defense, while promising QB Anu Solomon and four RBs were hit hard by injuries as well. Solomon, who was whispered in Heisman talk during his freshman year in 2014 before last year’s injury-plagued campaign, joins explosive RB Nick Wilson to form a lethal 1-2 punch. Let’s also not forget Arizona’s 20-4 SU mark in season openers since 1992 – or Rich Rod’s 6-0 SU mark in his last six lid-lifters. However, the single biggest factor in this game could come from the Mother of all Look-Aheads: BYU’s highly anticipated renewal of the Holy War against Utah, where the Cougars look to get even for a humiliating 35-28 loss to the Utes in last year’s Las Vegas bowl (Utah led 35-0 in the fi rst quarter). With that, we say lay it or leave it in tonight’s game from University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale.

4� BEST BET

At fi rst glance, this looks to be a mismatch between a Wyoming team that’s averaged fewer than four wins per year over the previous four seasons and an athletically-superior Northern Illinois squad that’s won a whopping six MAC West titles in a row. Even worse news for the hosts: the Huskies have fought their way to an incredible 24-4 SU and 21-6-1 ATS record in their last 28 road games! However, like Charlotte and Kent State on this week’s opening card, the Cowboys are laden with returning starters. That’s a bit of good news for fans in Laramie as 17 returning starter double-digit dogs have gone 50-35-1 ATS in Game One of the season, including 10-3 ATS at home since 1992 (3-0 ATS since 2009). Third-year Wyoming HC Craig Bohl needs this game like blood after last year’s punishing 2-win effort, and it’s a big plus that 26 freshmen saw signifi cant playing time in 2015, including 15 who started at least one game. Remember, the Cowboys had won 13 consecutive season openers at home until Carson Wentz and powerful North Dakota State pulled the rug out from underneath them last year in a 24-13 setback. Also keep in mind that despite NIU’s impressive record playing away from DeKalb, NONE of those SU or ATS wins were recorded at an altitude comparable to Laramie’s 7,165 feet above sea level (wins over Idaho and UNLV came at sites that didn’t eclipse a half-mile in elevation). Still not convinced? Then take a gander at THE CLINCHER: Northern Illinois is just 1-18 SU away from home in its season-opening game since 1989.

WYOMING over Northern Illinois by 6

Sunday, September 4Notre Dame over TEXAS by 3

So… you think you know ‘hot’? Folks, if there’s a hotter hot-seat in the state of Texas than the one Longhorns head coach Charlie Strong currently resides upon, it would have to be the one attached to the electric chair at the federal pen in Beaumont. That’s what happens when your new school fi res a head coach that went 17-9 in his previous two seasons (Mack Brown), and you can manage only an 11-14 record in your fi rst two years at the helm. It could be getting hotter: Burnt Orange Nation reports that three projected O-line starters – C Zach Shackelford, OT Tristan Nickelson and OG Patrick Vahe – have fallen victim to injuries in practice… although Strong has optimistically stated that he expects the offensive line to be “healthy” for tonight’s matchup. He certainly made a strong move in the offseason to spark the ‘Horns’ offense, hiring Tulsa OC and former Baylor assistant Sterlin Gilbert. However, Strong has yet to resolve his QB dilemma, saying that he won’t name a starter until his team takes the fi eld for tonight’s game, and that freshman Shane Buechele and senior Tyrone Swoopes will both take snaps against the Irish. Perhaps Notre Dame’s best news so far has been at quarterback, as starters Deshone Kizer and Malik Zaire both return. Otherwise, the Irish were dismantled by the NFL draft, losing seven players in the fi rst four rounds – six more than were drafted in 2015. Team depth favors Texas, as freshmen made a total of 77 starts last season, the most in the nation. A look at ATS history and the intangibles surrounding this game also point to the Longhorns. Not only do they have major revenge from last year’s embarrassing 38-3 season-opening loss at South Bend, Bevo’s boys have covered three straight in the series as a host, plus they own a 4-1 ATS mark at The Forty Acres when playing with non-conference revenge. Still, even though we have Texas pegged as an improved ‘play on’ team this season, it’s too early to take a shot with Strong and his ‘Horns… certainly at least until the OL situation clears. In a game where we wouldn’t be surprised to see the outcome fall right on the number, we’ll watch from the sidelines.

Monday, September 5

5� BEST BET

In case you’ve yet to pick up a copy of this year’s Playbook Football Preview magazine, be advised that Florida State sits atop Marc’s preseason college football Top 25 list, his pick to win the 2016 National Championship. A quick look at the Seminoles’ roster will tell you why. With 17 starters back, including all 11 on offense, and a defense that improved 60 YPG, it’s safe to say FSU is rolling in it this season. Star RB Dalvin Cook – the only player in the nation to rank in the Top 10 offensively in YPR, Yards Rushing, All Purpose Yards, Rushing TDs and Scoring – is back to lead the charge. Such is not the case for the Rebels, who return only three starters on offense (zero linemen) and fi ve on defense. Fortunately for Mississippi head coach Hugh Freeze, QB Chad Kelly, last year’s SEC Newcomer of the Year, is back. Kelly broke or tied 14 single-season school records while leading the SEC in passing, total offense and TD passes. Meanwhile, Freeze is the fi rst Ole Miss coach to lead his teams to bowl appearances in each of his fi rst four seasons at the helm. But the reality is the Rebs have lost so many players due to graduation and defections to the NFL – the biggest being DT Robert Nkemdiche – that they now become a certifi ed ‘green team’ to start the campaign. As much as we admire Freeze and his money-printing machine (31-16-1 ATS with Ole Miss), we can’t back a team that’s just 2-5 ATS away before playing a 3+ game home stand against a squad that’s gone 7-3 ATS in its last 10 appearances as non-conference chalk of 10 or fewer points. And since Jimbo Fisher is the head coach residing inside this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, it’s all systems go for FSU in tonight’s neutral fi eld matchup from Orlando. Break out the War Chant. THE CLINCHER: See the AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK on page 2.

Florida State over Ole Miss by 16


2016 College Football OVER /UNDER Breakdown

COMPILED BY VICTOR KING OF KING CREOLE SPORTS

Best ‘OVER’ teams:Indiana: 11-2 O/U… Fresno St, Syracuse: 9-2 O/U… New Mexico St: 9-2-1 O/U… Arizona, Arkansas St: 10-3 O/U… E. Michigan, Idaho, Texas Tech, UNLV, Utah St: 9-3 O/U… W. Kentucky: 10-4 O/U… Air Force, Iowa, Oregon: 9-4 O/U… S. Alabama, SMU: 8-4 O/U.

Best ‘UNDER’ teams:Missouri: 1-11 O/U… Vanderbilt: 1-10-1 O/U… Connecticut: 2-10 O/U… Boston Coll: 2-9 O/U… Mississippi, Toledo: 3-9 O/U… Army, Ball St: 3-8 O/U… Georgia St, Marshall, Ohio St, Texas A&M, West Virginia: 4-9 O/U… Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Kent St, Nevada, UTEP: 4-8 O/U… Northwestern: 4-8-1 O/U.

MOST combined PPG (offense + defense):Texas Tech: 88.7 combined ppg!… Tulsa: 77.0… Baylor: 76.4… Indiana: 74.1… New Mexico St: 73.6… Arizona, SMU: 73.3… Idaho: 72.4… Bowling Green: 71.1… Arkansas St, W. Kentucky: 70.2… Oklahoma St: 70.0… TCU: 69.3… California: 68.6… Arizona St: 68.1.

LEAST combined PPG (offense + defense):Missouri: 29.8 combined ppg!… Boston Coll: 32.4… Vanderbilt: 36.2… Connecticut: 36.7… Northwestern: 38.1… Kent St: 39.2… Wisconsin: 40.5… Florida: 41.5… Wake Forest: 42.0… Georgia: 43.2… Penn St: 45.0… Akron: 45.4… Illinois: 45.9)… Minnesota: 47.7.

HIGHEST average OU line:Baylor: 74.6… Texas Tech: 74.3... Tulsa: 69.7… Oregon: 69.2… TCU: 69.9… Bowling Green: 69.1… W. Kentucky: 67.6… California: 66.3… Texas St: 66.1… Memphis: 65.5… SMU: 65.0… Washington St: 64.6… Cincinnati: 64.5… Oklahoma St: 64.1… New Mexico St: 64.0.

With the 2016 College Football season commencing play on September 1st, KING CREOLE has dissected last year’s OU results for all Division 1-A schools.

The teams are listed in alphabetical order. The fi rst column is each team’s 2015 OU results with OVERS listed fi rst and UNDERS listed second (along with any OU ties). All teams that went Over or Under 64% of the time or greater are in BOLD font.

Columns two and three list each team’s average points scored on offense and allowed on defense. Column four lists the total amount of points scored and allowed. Column fi ve lists the average Over/Under line. And the last column lists the average Over/Under MARGIN for each team. Signifi cant Over/Under average margins will also appear in a BOLD font.

NOW, LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT LAST YEAR’S TOP TEAMS IN VARIOUS OU CATEGORIES:

LOWEST average OU line:Boston Coll: 41.2… Missouri: 44.1… Michigan, Northwestern, Penn St: 45.1… Connecticut: 45.8… Florida, Wake Forest: 46.3… Vanderbilt: 46.6… Kent St: 46.7… Minnesota: 48.3… Temple: 48.4… Syracuse: 48.5… San Diego St: 49.0… Utah St (49.1).

HIGHEST average OU MARGIN:Texas Tech: +14.4 ppg!… Indiana: +12.2… UNLV: +10.7… Syracuse: +9.7… Arkansas St: +9.5… New Mexico St: +9.4… Arizona, Idaho: +9.2… SMU: +8.4… Va Tech: +8.0… Virginia: +7.8… Arkansas: +7.7… Tulsa: +7.3… E. Michigan: +6.8.

LOWEST average OU MARGIN:Missouri: -14.3 ppg!… Georgia, Vanderbilt: -10.4… Texas A&M: -9.5… Boston Coll, Wisconsin: -8.8… Colorado: -8.2… Kent St: -7.5… Massachusetts: -7.2… Ohio St: -6.9… Illinois: -6.4… Georgia St: -6.3… Fla Atlantic: -5.6… Washington St: -5.4

Highest ‘UNDER’ (2014) to ‘OVER’ (2015) reversals:Syracuse: 2-10 O/U (2014) to 9-2 O/U (2015)… Ohio U: 2-9-1 O/U to 8-5 O/U… Stanford: 3-9 O/U to 8-6 O/U… Arizona: 5-9 O/U to 10-3 O/U… Indiana: 6-6 O/U to 11-2 O/U… UL-Monroe: 4-8 O/U to 8-5 O/U… S. Alabama: 5-8 O/U to 8-4 O/U.

Highest ‘OVER’ (2014) to ‘UNDER’ (2015) reversals:Ohio St: 12-3 O/U (2014) to 4-9 O/U (2015)… Georgia: 9-4 O/U to 3-10 O/U… Army: 8-4 O/U to 3-8 O/U… Toledo: 8-5 O/U to 3-9 O/U… Marshall: 7-5-1 O/U to 4-9 O/U… Georgia St: 8-3-1 O/U to 4-9 O/U… Michigan St: 10-3 O/U to 6-8 O/U.

2016 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST A $10,000 WINNERS-TAKE-ALL BEST BET CONTEST

2015 WISE GUYS TOP FINISHERS

CONTESTANT W-L/BEST BETS PTSStan Lisowski 25-11 / *14-4 40Steve Merril 24-12 / *13-5 38Brad Powers 23-13 / *12-6 36California Sports 23-13 / *12-6 36Ross Benjamin 22-13 / *13-5 36Brad Diamond 22-13 / *11-6 34Cincinnati Kid 19-16 / *14-4 34Hurricane Bill 21-14 / *11-7 33

1.2.T3.T3.T3.T6.T6.8.

Now in its 31st year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all contest. The TOP THREE fi nishers, the BEST BET champion and the FINAL 4-WEEK winner will take home the money, with each winning pick printed in the PLAYBOOK Newsletter carrying

a value of one point, all winning DOUBLE PLAYS worth two points, and a one-time TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR (noted with an asterisk) worth three points. The designated DOUBLE PLAY BEST BET PICKS can be purchased every Friday at the Playbook Store (www.PLAYBOOK.com) for only $10 a week, or FREE if you’re a PLAYBOOK.COM VIP ALL ACCESS MEMBER! All selections are graded against the lines posted after 1:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page at PLAYBOOK.com. Congratulations to 2015 Champion Stan Lisowski. Remember, you can follow the selections of each week’s Top 20 contestants, along with notable pros like: Billy The Kid, Brad Diamond, Brad Powers, California Sports, Cincinnati Kid, Doc’s Sports, Fairway Jay, Hurricane Bill, James Patrick, JB Sports, JH-Sportsline, Jim Feist, Joe Nelson, Ken Thomson, Marc Lawrence, Mike Muzyka, Mr. East, Norm Hitzges, Okie Sports, Richard Witt, Rob Vinciletti, Robbie Gainous, Robert Ferringo, Rocketman Sports, Ross Benjamin, Scott Landau, Special K Sports, Stan Lisowski, Statfox Dave, Steve Merril, Stormin’ Norman, Victor King, TD Tony and more – every week in the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

Best Bet Champion – 2-Way Tie: Cincinnati Kid and Stan Lisowski (29 pts)

Final 4-Week Champion – 3-Way Tie: Cincinnati Kid, Stan Lisowski, TD Tony (11 pts)

– ALL ATS TIES OMITTED / * W-L RESULT FOR 3� PICK –


AIR FORCEAKRONALABAMAAPPALACHIAN STARIZONAARIZONA STARKANSASARKANSAS STARMYAUBURNBALL STBAYLORBOISE STBOSTON COLLBOWL GREENBUFFALOBYUC FLORIDAC MICHIGANCALIFORNIACINCINNATICLEMSONCOLORADOCOLORADO STCONNECTICUTDUKEE CAROLINAE MICHIGANFLA ATLANTICFLA INT’LFLORIDAFLORIDA STFRESNO STGA SOUTHERNGEORGIAGEORGIA STGEORGIA TECHHAWAIIHOUSTONIDAHOILLINOISINDIANAIOWAIOWA STKANSASKANSAS STKENT STKENTUCKYLA LAFAYETTELA MONROELA TECHLOUISVILLELSUMARSHALLMARYLANDMASSACHUSETTSMEMPHISMIAMI FLMIAMI OHMICHIGANMICHIGAN STMID TENN STMINNESOTA

9-45-8

6-8-16-6

10-36-76-7

10-33-8

5-7-13-88-57-62-97-76-57-6

5-6-15-85-86-78-64-97-6

2-106-75-79-34-8

6-5-16-85-89-26-7

3-104-95-67-66-89-34-811-29-45-75-68-54-86-67-58-58-57-6

7-4-14-97-45-76-76-76-5

7-5-16-85-87-6

33.823.935.136.737.434.635.940.022.127.523.148.139.117.242.226.733.713.925.837.933.838.524.629.617.231.527.425.422.525.523.231.722.236.526.326.929.217.640.430.322.736.530.925.015.229.913.124.726.421.037.528.732.831.324.722.240.227.817.931.429.834.022.5

25.521.515.119.135.833.527.430.227.826.035.828.320.215.228.927.622.837.722.030.731.221.727.527.219.525.426.042.128.729.818.317.538.123.516.928.325.735.620.742.123.237.620.432.746.131.526.127.431.836.526.824.124.217.834.431.427.328.232.016.421.726.625.2

59.345.450.255.873.368.163.370.249.953.558.976.459.332.471.154.356.551.647.868.665.060.252.156.836.756.953.467.551.255.341.549.260.360.043.255.254.953.261.172.445.974.151.357.761.361.439.252.158.257.564.352.857.049.159.153.667.556.049.947.851.560.647.7

54.250.149.356.764.161.655.660.749.356.860.074.655.941.269.153.454.249.452.566.364.554.160.356.945.852.357.960.756.852.846.351.953.657.953.661.554.353.861.063.252.361.950.359.162.254.646.753.858.854.759.549.454.854.054.760.865.557.853.545.153.259.848.3

+5.1-4.7+0.9-0.9+9.2+6.5+7.7+9.5+0.6-3.3-1.1+1.8+3.4-8.8+2.0+0.9+2.3+2.2-4.7+2.5+0.5+6.1-8.2+0.1-9.1+4.6-4.5+6.8-5.6+2.5-4.8-2.7+6.7+2.1-10.4-6.3+0.6-0.6+0.1+9.2-6.4

+12.2+1.0-1.4-0.9+6.7-7.5-2.7-0.6+2.8+4.8+3.4+2.2-4.9+4.4-7.2+2.0-1.8-3.6+2.7-1.7+1.8-0.6

AVGMARG

AVGLINE

TOTPPGPAPFO/UTEAM

A TEAM-BY-TEAM LOOK AT LAST SEASON’S COLLEGE O/U STATS

MISSISSIPPIMISSISSIPPI STMISSOURIN CAROLINAN ILLINOISNAVYNC STATENEBRASKANEVADANEW MEXICONEW MEX STNORTH TEXASNORTHWESTERNNOTRE DAMEOHIO STOHIO UOKLAHOMAOKLAHOMA STOLD DOMINIONOREGONOREGON STPENN STPITTSBURGHPURDUERICERUTGERSS ALABAMAS CAROLINAS FLORIDASAN DIEGO STSAN JOSE STSMUSOUTHERN MISSSTANFORDSYRACUSETCUTEMPLETENNESSEETEXASTEXAS A&MTEXAS STTEXAS TECHTOLEDOTROYTULANETULSAUCLAUNLVUSCUTAHUTAH STUTEPUTSAVANDERBILTVIRGINIAVIRGINIA TECHW KENTUCKYW MICHIGANW VIRGINIAWAKE FORESTWASHINGTONWASHINGTON STWISCONSINWYOMING

3-96-71-118-67-7

6-5-17-68-54-86-7

9-2-15-7

4-8-17-64-98-58-58-5

6-5-19-46-55-85-77-56-55-68-4

4-7-17-66-8

6-5-18-46-88-69-26-75-97-65-74-96-69-33-9

6-5-17-5

7-5-15-89-37-77-69-34-87-5

1-10-16-66-7

10-47-5-14-95-65-85-75-84-7

40.834.413.640.731.136.833.232.826.229.928.615.219.534.235.727.543.539.524.243.019.023.228.225.126.127.125.021.933.632.127.927.739.937.827.242.129.835.226.427.826.945.135.027.919.737.232.228.633.930.629.020.722.615.225.731.044.336.034.017.430.631.526.819.0

22.623.216.224.527.621.825.827.826.828.445.041.218.624.115.125.322.030.535.722.037.021.826.136.535.834.935.927.522.916.427.245.725.622.631.027.220.120.030.322.039.243.620.728.236.239.826.033.725.722.326.732.933.721.032.226.325.928.324.624.618.827.713.734.0

63.457.629.865.258.758.659.060.655.058.373.656.438.158.350.852.865.570.059.965.056.045.054.361.661.962.060.949.456.548.555.173.465.560.458.269.349.955.256.749.866.188.755.756.155.977.058.262.359.652.955.753.656.336.257.957.370.264.358.642.049.459.240.553.0

60.558.044.162.659.756.253.556.655.559.164.059.245.153.657.753.362.864.156.369.257.045.150.355.258.557.855.953.353.349.053.965.061.254.848.569.948.455.756.959.366.174.357.857.851.469.760.951.661.452.549.155.255.646.650.149.367.660.661.746.352.364.649.355.7

+2.9-0.4

-14.3+2.6-1.0+2.4+5.5+4.0-0.5-0.8+9.4-2.8-7.0+4.7-6.9-0.5+2.7+5.9+3.6-3.8-1.0-0.1+4.0+6.4+3.4+4.2+5.0-3.8+3.2-0.5+1.2+8.4+4.3+5.6+9.7-0.6+1.5-0.5-0.2-9.5-0-

+14.4-3.1+1.7+4.5+7.3-2.7

+10.7-1.8+0.4+6.6-1.6+0.7-10.4+7.8+8.0+2.6+3.7-3.1-4.3-2.9-5.4-8.8-2.7

AVGMARG

AVGLINE

TOTPPGPAPFO/UTEAM


BALL ST7:00 PM GEORGIA ST

145 146 1’ 8

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

CALIFORNIA10:00 PM @ Sydney, AU HAWAII ESPN

291 292

22 16

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

GA TECH ESPN27:30 AM @ Dublin, Ireland BOSTON COLLEGE

HAWAII12:00 PM MICHIGAN ESPN

MIAMI OHIO3:30 PM TIME CHANGE IOWA ESPNU

W MICHIGAN12:00 PM N’WESTERN ESPNU

BOWLING GREEN12:00 PM OHIO ST BTN

KENT ST3:30 PM TIME CHANGE PENN ST BTN

MISSOURI12:00 PM W VIRGINIA FS1

9’ 10

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONSTHIS WEEK'S BEST BETS

FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY,SEPTEMBER 5, 2016 4� BEST BET3� BEST BET 5� BEST BET

2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: GEORGIA TECH WYOMING FLORIDA STATE

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

NORTH CAROLINA5:30 PM @ Atlanta, GA GEORGIA ESPN OKLAHOMA12:00 PM @ NRG Stadium HOUSTON ABC

FRESNO ST8:00 PM NEBRASKA BTN

USC8:00 PM @ Arlington, TX ALABAMA ABC BOISE ST12:00 PM TIME CHANGE UL-LAFAYETTE

BYU10:30 PM @ Glendale, AZ ARIZONA FS1

NO ILLINOIS10:30 PM WYOMING CBSC

195 196

197 198

199 200

201 202

203 204

205 206

207 208

2016 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE

All times listed are Eastern Standard Time • Games in Offi cial International Rotation sequence • Dates & times subject to change

Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the SportsOptions.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines

are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a play.

OL PB

FRIDAY, AUGUST 26

INDIANA ESPNU 7:30 PM FLORIDA INT’L

CHARLOTTE7:00 PM LOUISVILLE

TULANE7:00 PM WAKE FOREST

RICE8:00 PM W KENTUCKY CBSC

SOUTH CAROLINA8:00 PM VANDERBILT ESPN

OREGON ST9:00 PM TIME CHANGE MINNESOTA BTN

APPALACHIAN ST7:30 PM TENNESSEE SEC

133 134

135 136

137 138

139 140

141 142

143 144

189 190

ARMY7:00 PM TEMPLE CBSC

COLORADO ST8:00 PM @ Denver, CO COLORADO ESPN

KANSAS ST9:00 PM STANFORD FS1

TOLEDO ESPNU9:00 PM TIME CHANGE ARKANSAS ST

147 148

149 150

151 152

179 180

OL PBNEW MEXICO ST8:00 PM TIME CHANGE UTEP

SMU7:00 PM TIME CHANGE NORTH TEXAS

SOUTH ALABAMA12:00 PM TIME CHANGE MISSISSIPPI ST SEC

TEXAS ST 3:30 PM OHIO U CBSC SOUTHERN MISS 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE KENTUCKY ESPNU

LOUISIANA TECH4:00 PM TIME CHANGE ARKANSAS SEC

UMASS 7:30 PM TIME CHANGEFLORIDA SEC

CLEMSON9:00 PMAUBURN ESPN

UCLA3:30 PM TEXAS A&M CBS

SAN JOSE ST7:00 PM TIME CHANGE TULSA CBSC

RUTGERS PAC122:00 PM WASHINGTON

LSU3:30 PM @ Green Bay, WI WISCONSIN ABC

167 168

169 170

171 172

173 174

175 176

177 178

181 182

183 184

185 186

187 188

191 192

193 194

OL PB OL PB

NOTRE DAME 7:30 PM TEXAS ABC

209 210

4

19

6’

26’

20

13

3’

12’

33’

7

20’

36’

8’

1

6

10

29’

4’

6

�

21

13

21

17

16

3

7

21

3

17

39

12

3

3

3

6

24

MISSISSIPPI8:00 PM @ Orlando, FL FLORIDA ST ESPN

211 212 5’ 1622’ 28

38’ 30

10 3

“Your purchase of the information in this publication is intended strictly for the private use of the subscriber and/or purchaser. The redistribution of any por tion of this information, in any form, without the express written consent of Preferred Picks® (or Playbook® or Playbook.com®) is strictly prohibited and is subject to the laws of the jurisdictions involved.”

20 11

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK: COLORADO STATE SUBSCRIBE TO PLAYBOOK TODAY: 1.800.752.9266

17 13

16’ 24

22’ 16

3 8

Pk 4

�

�

�

2’ 7

7

16

6

7

153 154

155 156

157 158

159 160

161 162

163 164

165 166

10’

6

3

42

30

14

36

20

8’ 3

1’ 6 18’ 20

51

31

september 1-5, 2016 exclusive ncaa football over/under ... · betcha didn't know play on any...

Documents