September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 1

Forecast VerificationForecast Verification

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 2

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 1-5 June, 2013

P4-lead, IC 16May

P3-lead, IC 21May

P2-lead, IC 26May

P1-lead, IC 31May

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 1-5June

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 3

P4-lead, IC 21May

P3-lead, IC 26May

P2-lead, IC 31May

Actual Anomaly

P1-lead, IC 05 Jun

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Forecast valid for Period 6-10June

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 6-10 June, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 4

P4-lead, IC 26May

P3-lead, IC 31May

P2-lead, IC 05 Jun

P1-lead, IC 10 Jun

Actual Anomaly

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Forecast valid for Period 11-15June

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 11-15 June, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 5

P4-lead, IC 31May

P3-lead, IC 05 Jun

P2-lead, IC 10 Jun

P1-lead, IC 15 Jun

Actual Anomaly

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Forecast valid for Period 16-20June

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 16-20 June, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 6

P4-lead, IC 05 Jun

P3-lead, IC 10 Jun

P2-lead, IC 15 Jun

P1-lead, IC 20 Jun

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 21-25June

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 21-25 June, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 7

Forecast valid for Period 26-30 June

P4-lead, IC 10 Jun

P3-lead, IC 15 Jun

P2-lead, IC 20 Jun

P1-lead, IC 25 Jun

Actual Anomaly

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 26-30 June, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 8

P4-lead, IC 15 Jun

P3-lead, IC 20 Jun

P2-lead, IC 25 Jun

P1-lead, IC 30 Jun

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 1-5 July

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 1-5 July, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 9

P4-lead, IC 20 Jun

P3-lead, IC 25 Jun

P2-lead, IC 30 Jun

P1-lead, IC 5 July

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 6-10 July

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 6-10 July, 2013

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 10

P4-lead, IC 25 Jun

P3-lead, IC 30 Jun

P2-lead, IC 5 July

P1-lead, IC 10 July

Forecast valid for Period 11-15 July

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 11-15 July, 2013

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 11

P4-lead, IC 30 Jun

P3-lead, IC 5 July

P2-lead, IC 10 July

P1-lead, IC 15 July

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 16-20 July, 2013

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 16-20 July

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 12

P4-lead, IC 5 July

P3-lead, IC 10 July

P2-lead, IC 15 July

P1-lead, IC 20 July

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 21-25 July, 2013

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 21-25 July

September 10, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 13

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 26-30July, 2013

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

Actual Anomaly

P4-lead, IC 10 July

P3-lead, IC 15 July

P2-lead, IC 20 July

P1-lead, IC 25 July

Forecast valid for Period 26-30 July

April 18, 2023 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 14

Pentad mean Rainfall (mm/day) for period 31July-4 August, 2013

CFS GFSbc CFS GFSbc

P4-lead, IC 15 July

P3-lead, IC 20 July

P2-lead, IC 25 July

P1-lead, IC 30 July

Actual Anomaly

Forecast valid for Period 31July-4Aug