september 2016 lnggc 1 -...

September 2016 LNGgc 1

LNG SPOT TRADE REVIEW

• New LNG for the market: Global and US Exports• Shipping capacity and terms for traders• Spot players review

• Majors (IOCs) – Shell example• Traders - Trafigura example

• Spot trading routes development • Executive Summary


AGENDA


• The LNG industry is going through a major change that may not be reversed.• It would appear that the buyers no longer need or want long term contracts.• There is surplus LNG as US exports come to market and current buyers divert cargoes.• Traders are playing a bigger role where they have a higher risk appetite for the new markets such as Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh.

• Egas has just launched a tender for 120 cargoes in 2017 yet probably have nil demand in 2018 as new gas arrives by pipeline from BP and Eni

• Even if spot market share remains at 30% as global trade increases by about 40+ mtons in next 3 years that will represent a further 10‐15 million tonnes

• And as Shell fully digests BG their ability to control more of the short term market will grow

• Low gas prices will be here for a while but even so the demand has not increased and as sellers are reluctant to lock in term deals at low slopes the short term market will grow especially as new markets cannot take long term deals


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



LNG PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION : TO 2019 START UP



LNG ORDERBOOK: INDEPENDENT OWNERS



LNG FLEET BALANCE



US EXPORTS : SABINE PASS DELIVERIES



MAJORS: SHELL PORTFOLIO



MAJORS: SHIPPING PORTFOLIO



TRADERS: TRAFIGURA


• Over 110 LNG ports today sending or receiving 240 mtons of LNG annually • Number of routes are constantly changing but on average stays over 500 mark• Traders have managed to move over 70mtpa of all LNG volumes• The shift in the Asian trading with Australian volumes heavily dominating Far Easter markets has prompted major traders to seek alternative markets like Middle East, South Eastern Asia and some even in Latin America

• Most of the new markets are short to medium term fluctuating demand


GLOBAL TRADING ROUTES



GLOBAL TRADING ROUTES - GIGGNL



NEW BUYER MARKETS: FSRU PROPOSED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION


• The LNG industry is going through a major change that may not be reversed.• It would appear that the buyers no longer need or want long term contracts.• There is surplus LNG as US exports come to market and current buyers divert cargoes.• Traders are playing a bigger role where they have a higher risk appetite for the new markets such as Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh.

• Egas has just launched a tender for 120 cargoes in 2017 yet probably have nil demand in 2018 as new gas arrives by pipeline from BP and Eni

• Even if spot market share remains at 30% as global trade increases by about 40+ mtons in next 3 years that will represent a further 10‐15 million tonnes

• And as Shell fully digests BG their ability to control more of the short term market will grow

• Low gas prices will be here for a while but even so the demand has not increased and as sellers are reluctant to lock in term deals at low slopes the short term market will grow especially as new markets cannot take long term deals


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

september 2016 lnggc 1 -...

Documents