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Economic rollers Market updates September 6, 2012 Issue 28 Volume III Nishka A FINANCIAL NEWS LETTER FROM CUIM KENGERI Where knowledge relates money RBI column NBFC’S Sector Review Finance buzz Finance quiz

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Economic rollers

Market updates

September 6, 2012 Issue 28

Volume III

Nishka A FINANCIAL NEWS LETTER FROM CUIM KENGERI

Where knowledge relates money

RBI column

NBFC’S Sector Review

Finance buzz

Finance quiz

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2

RBI Column 01

Economic rollers 03

NBFC’S Hit by New Norms 04

RBI and the gold loans: The two way

traffic

05

CAG’S Report on Delhi Airport:

Ill – Formed or Impeccable?

06

Stock analysis – I 07

Campus poll 08

Market updates 09

Finance Buzz 10

Finance Quiz

Photo find

11

12

Crossword

Answers

13

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(NBFC-MFI) Today these companies finance Infrastructure, Auto, Housing, Gold, Mortgage Loan and the major players are HDFC, IDFC, Mahindra Finance, Shriram Transport Finance, Muthoot Finance, SKS Microfinance etc. Many of the companies like Muthoot finance, L&T Finance Holding Shriram Finance had recently issued their IPO but most of them are trading below their issue prices because of high premium charge by the promoters. The Financial results of most of companies were positive Cholamandalam Invest net sales grew by 55% and pat increased by 16.4%, Mahindra Finance Pat went up by 52%, overall the sector performed well in FY13 Q1 top line increased by 29% and bottom line went up by 24%. The number of NBFC’s has decreased from 13,014 in FY06 to 12,409 in FY11 however the sector has grown by 2.6 times between FY06 and FY11 at a CAGR of 21%.This sector is very important for Indian Infrastructure development and for project finance.

1

Non-banking financial companies, or NBFCs, are financial institutions that provide banking services, but do not hold a banking license. These institutions are not allowed to take deposits from the public. Nonetheless, all operations of these institutions are still covered under banking regulations NBFCs have been playing a complementary role to the other financial institutions including banks in meeting the funding needs of the economy. They help fill the gaps in the availability of financial services that otherwise occur in bank-dominated financial systems. The gaps are in regards the product as well customer and geographical segments A booming sector: Currently there are seven categories of NBFC’s registered with RBI that are Asset Finance Companies, Investment Companies, Loan Companies, Infrastructure Finance Companies, Core Investment Companies, Infrastructure Debt fund-Non-banking finance company (IDF-NBFC), Non-banking finance company-Micro finance institution

NBFC SECTOR REVIEW - Ritesh Kejriwal 2 MBA F1

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A boon or a bane: The RBI has allowed MFI’s to charge more than 26% as interest rate on loans given to borrowers. The central bank has also given MFI’s five years to make full provisioning against bad loans. NBFC’s have registered impressive growth in the past decade. They provide valuable service to many productive sectors of the economy for asset

creation and also in conversion of physical assets to financial assets (eg: gold loans). A large part of the growth can be attributed to prudential norms brought in by the regulator. However, the large number of NBFC’s carrying on diverse businesses poses regulatory challenge given their growing size. Regulations have to be suited to diverse aspects of various businesses and strengthened to increase the trust and transparency in the sector.

Supply Plenty to meet personal finance needs but not enough to meet long-

term infrastructure needs.

Demand India is a growing economy, demand for long-term loans,

especially infrastructure and personal finance is high.

Barriers to entry Licensing requirement, investment in technology, skills required for

project finance, distribution reach, minimum capital requirements,

RBI intervention

Bargaining power

of suppliers

Providers of funds could be more demanding. As quality of services

provided with minimum time matters a lot.

Bargaining power

of customers

High, as banks have also forayed into the long-term finance.

Competition High. there are public sector, private sector and foreign banks along

with non-banking finance companies competing in similar markets.

Sources: Ministry of Finance report on the Non Banking Finance Companies, Moneycontrol, RBI

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2

3. It is observed that between March 2009 and March 2012, while total gross advances of the banking system grew at a compound annual growth rate of less than 20%, restructured standard advances grew by over 40%.

4. As on March 2012, the ratio of Restructured Standard Advances to Total Gross Advances is highest for PSBs at 5.73%, while the ratio is significantly lower for private and foreign banks at 1.61% and 0.22%, respectively.

5. The above trends clearly underscore the reasons for the regulatory discomfort with the manner in which the extant restructuring guidelines and the associated regulatory forbearances are being used. The concerns are aggravated by the fact that the restructuring is neither being permitted in a transparent and objective manner by banks nor is it being resorted to in a non-discriminatory manner.

6. It is clearly observed that public sector banks have not been as judicious in the use of restructuring as a credit management tool as the private sector and foreign banks.

Corporate Debt Restructuring Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) or simply restructuring of loans and advances, with all its pros and cons, is an effective financial tool, especially during the time of crisis, for smoothening the adverse effects of economic downturns on the borrowers of credit as well as lenders.

1

Trends in Restructuring 1. Slowdown in the country amidst overall global

slowdown is generally being cited as the reason for the recent increase in restructured accounts. The reason for choosing the data on standard restructured accounts is that possibilities of unviable accounts getting restructured is greater when some kind of regulatory forbearance is available on asset quality and provisioning.

2. When commercial operations are delayed, a host of factors including the uncertainties surrounding the project are cited as the reason. But, when there are uncertainties, these have to be accounted for during the appraisal of the project and a proper cushion needs to be built to take care of these uncertainties. Instead, the effort is to appraise a project keeping in view an aggressive repayment schedule resulting in a very short term focus for borrowers, banks and financial analysts who appraise the project. This short term focus, in many cases, is the reason for the need for successive restructuring.

RBI COLUMN - Nidhi Jaiswal 2 MBA F1

1

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A way forward 1. Restructuring should be considered only under specific conditions. First, the need for restructuring should

arise only due to circumstances beyond the control of the borrowers and not generally for errors/mismanagement by them. Further, the viability of the project should be established and only after that should any restructuring proposal be considered.

2. Important in the context of evaluation the project is the need to examine the effective levels of leveraging in the project.

3. Also, lenders must ascertain the amount of the sacrifice required to be made on their part. Even where the bank has to make some sacrifice by sanctioning the restructuring proposal, there must be some provision for re-compensation when the borrower/borrowing unit comes out of the trouble.

4. The entire approach of restructuring has to be reoriented to show more compassion to the small borrowers. SMEs and priority sector advances are an important segment of the economy and viable accounts facing temporary problems in such situations must not be discriminated against when they request for restructuring. This structure will need to be built in at various levels – at the state, the district, the region and at the bank level.

5. Again, for restructuring proposal to be successful in assisting the borrower to tide over temporary difficulties, it is critical that the assessment of the proposal and its approval are completed within a specific time frame, say 90 days.

Resources of the banking sector are precious and limited and they cannot be allowed to be used in an imprudent way. CDR is a necessity especially when economic upturn and downturn are a way of life and part and parcel of business cycle for individual companies. In order to justify that restructuring is for the larger benefit of the economy and the society, it is imperative that it is available to all classes of borrowers and is made available in a timely and non-discriminate manner. This will be possible only if we develop the necessary structures, systems and processes to adhere to the above objectives.

2

Source: www.rbi.org.in

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ECONOMIC ROLLERS - Dhawal Parmar 2 MBA F1

v Repo Rate: 8.00%

v Reverse Repo Rate: 7.00%

v CRR: 4.75%

v SLR: 23.0%

v CBLO: 7.38% (as on September 5th

2012)

v Inflation (Based on All India

Consumer Price Index as On June

18th 2012): 9.84%

v Forex Reserves (as of Aug 31st 2012): $ 290.17 billion

v IIP (Released On August 9th 2012, for May): -1.8%

v 91 Days T bills (As on Sep 5th 2012): 8.143%

v 10 year G- Sec Yield (As on Sep 5th 2012): 8.21%

v Exports during July 2012: $ 22.43 billion

v Imports during July 2012: $ 37.93 billion

Source: Reserve Bank Of India, Ministry Of Finance, Office of Economic Advisory, Ministry of Commerce, Central statistics Office, The Clearing Corporation Of India Ltd.

3

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The risk in the system: "If this recommendation is implemented, almost 90% of the number of NBFCs shall have to be de-registered, since they have an asset base of less than 50 crores. This will lead to a situation where there shall be a number of companies who shall be carrying on NBFC activities without RBI registration. This will in our view increase the risk in the system which is not desirable," NBFCs wrote to RBI in a note. Hence, NBFCs intend to depend up on the banks to a very large extent and it also helps the banks because it reduces the risks. NBFCs have the knowledge of their local markets and therefore, they can lend better and the IT sector lending is also done through the NBFCs. In early 1990s there were around 40,000 NBFCs in India, mostly not regulated. Later, a public deposit scam had rocked the NBFC industry in India underscoring the need to regulate them. If the 50 crore benchmark is finally set, we will relegate to that dark era once again. At present there are approximately 12000 NBFCs in India among all the seven categories. What the RBI Act says? The implementation of the recommendation, according to the note, is also in conflict to the government's agenda on financial inclusion as small companies cater to the unbanked segment and provide last mile connectivity. The working group recognizes the need to amend the RBI Act in order to raise the entry level NOF. But by increasing the asset base to minimum of Rs 50 cr along with a capital adequacy ratio of 15%, the minimum NOF required automatically increases to more than 6 crore (i.e. 15% of Rs 50 cr). Thus the working group has indirectly raised the entry level NOF which is not possible without amending The RBI Act. Conclusively speaking, by implementation of this norm, the RBI is raising new barriers for entry of new NBFCs in India as well as making a path for the exit of existing NBFCs. The reach of NBFCs for petty financial needs is very implicit. “After NBFCs, who will take care of those needs?” is the question of the moment.

NBFC’S HIT BY NEW NORMS - Dhara Mehta N 1 MBA C

4

The UshaThorat Committee recently suggested maintaining a minimum asset size for more than Rs 50 crores along with a net owned fund of Rs 2 crore for registering a new NBFC. The industry body of NBFCs - the Finance Industry Development Council (FIDC) recently pleaded to the regulator with this argument. Currently, there is no obligation to have a minimum asset size while the requirement for NOF remains at Rs 2 crore only. India has around 14,000 NBFCs. NOF is the sum total of equity capital and reserve.

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The Problem: The Association of Gold loan companies (ALGOC) is not happy with the measures taken by RBI and the association feels that the government is under misconception about the industry.The ALGOC President and MD, George Alexander Muthoot said in a statement that the RBI feels that we finance in bullion but it’s not the case. Recently, RBI took a number of measures to stiffen norms for NBFCs, particularly those dealing in gold loans like Muthoot Finance, Mannapuram Gold Loans etc. The measures included limiting loan-to-value (LTV) ratio to 60% for gold loans, mandating a minimum tier - 1 capital of 12% by April 1, 2014; and restricting NBFCs to grant any loan against bullion/primary gold and gold

coins. The reason for statement is because the government wants to ensure reduction in the import of yellow metal to check current account deficit. RBI is as well concerned with the phenomenal growth of this sector and has asked Gold NBFC to reduce the LTV ratio to 60 % from 80 % present. Muthoot felt that this industry is helping in monetizing the ideal asset into productive use and currently scattered small organized lenders to organized sector. The Present Scenario: Recently, in early August 2012, leading gold loan NBFCs, including Muthoot Finance and Manappuram slashed interest rates to retain customers. That was in the wake of an RBI stipulation that limits loan-to-value of the pledged jewellery at 60 per cent. Leading gold-loan firms have now capped the interest rates at 24 per cent. The Rs 2,600-crore Manappuram Finance too has cut the interest rates. "Interest rates now range between 15 per cent and 24 per cent," said I.Unnikrishnan, executive director and deputy C.E.O.,MuthootFincorp, already had the maximum interest rate at 24 per cent. Due to prevailing regulatory concerns, investors are not ready to subscribe bonds or CPs issued by any gold loan company. Hence, the gold loan companies need to offer higher rate of interest to attract investors. These moves by the Gold Loan NBFCs because of the RBI stipulations always raise questions as to how RBI, despite a bank regulator can influence the major decisions taken by the NBFCs as well.

Seems like “Gold’s Glitter” is diminishing in the bond market!

RBI AND THE GOLD LOANS: THE TWO WAY TRAFFIC

- Kumar Narayan 2 MBA F1

In mid of May 2012, the

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on

Friday asked banks to bring

down credit exposure to a single

non-banking finance company

(NBFC), doing business of gold

loans, from existing 10% to

7.5%. The regulator had given

maximum six months to

implement it.

5

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What the report says? DIAL is led by the GMR Group, which has 54 per cent stake, and the state-owned Airports Authority of India. Germany's Fraport AG and Malaysia Airport Holdings are the other minority partners in the consortium that has operated the Delhi airport since 2006. The report says in a key summing-up that "With an equity contribution of Rs 2,450 crore, out of which the private consortium's share was Rs 1,813 crore, DIAL has got a brownfield airport for 60 years and in addition, commercial rights of land valued at Rs 24,000 crore with a potential earning capacity, according to its own estimates, of Rs 1,63,557crore." This calculation ignores the 46 per cent revenue share that the government gets from the project, and ignores also the need to discount future revenue streams to get their net present value (the government says that, at a 12 per cent discount rate, the NPV would be only Rs 13,795 crore). The falling credibility: The CAG damages its credibility by failing to put figures in perspective and context, and to apply proper accounting techniques. The CAG calculation assumes that all the commercial development of land would be operational from the start of the 60-year period, whereas even six years after the project was launched, only one-fifth of the land set aside for commercial development has been so used. In other words, the massive scam suggested by the headline-hitting figure of Rs 1,63,557crore is accounting fiction. It is equally nonsensical to state that the annual lease rent for 5,106 acres was just Rs 100, when the operational fact is the 46 per cent revenue share that comes to the government. The CAG damages its credibility by failing to put figures in perspective and context, and to apply proper accounting techniques. The recent CAG's reports on coal, power and Delhi airport have raised a big question. Yes, one takeaway is the need for transparency in resource disbursal and use, be it minerals or land. But if CAG - whose job is to keep accounts - habitually hypotheses about presumptive revenue loss owing to absence of this or that policy in the past, where will it end?

The question remains unanswered!

CAG’S REPORT ON DELHI AIRPORT: ILL – FORMED OR IMPECCABLE?

- Akhilesh C 2 MBA F1

The CAG recently released a report on Delhi Airport. After the surfacing of the coal scam, the CAG has again hit out on the Government. It asks why land was made available to a private developer at reduced rates to build and run an airport for 60 years, and insinuates that the developer, Hyderabad-based GMR group, had a deal with the present Government. The Comptroller and Auditor General's (CAG) report on the Delhi airport finds that the 1.63 lakh crores were lost because land was leased at a fraction of its market price to the public-private partnership, DIAL (Delhi International Airport Ltd).

6

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Sources: Moneycontrol, Sharekhan

7

Muthoot Finance Buy 123 – 125 Stoploss 115 Target 155 Muthoot Finance is the largest Gold Company of the country, provides personal and business loan secured by gold. Company has showed strong performance in June 2012 Quarter. Company's operating income grew by 41.32% from Rs. 908.55 cr in June 2011 to Rs. 1283.95 cr in June 2012. Profit after Tax in June, 2012 was Rs. 246.11 cr as compared to Rs. 190.45 cr in June, 2011 which is up by 29.23%. The stock made double bottom around 118 in mid July and from it took support and trading above 125-128 range. If markets will remain bullish the stock is expected to rise from this level, otherwise it can correct upto the 52 week low of 115 which is strong support for the stock. The stock will face a strong resistance around 160.This is low beta stock and because of strong it may outperform the market in medium term. The company is trading at 5.41 P/E multiple.Investor can buy the stock around 123-125 level with a stop loss of 115 and target of 155

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RESPONSES NO. OF RESPONSES

YES 52

NO 10

MAY BE 0 TOTAL 62

CAMPUS POLL - Abhishek Roy 2 MBA F1

- Arun P 2 MBA F 2

" It's time someone rated

ratings agencies ":

HDFC chairman Deepak

Parekh.

Do you agree?

Best Comment 1.The analysis metrics on the basis of strength of currency, level of economy and bench marking cannot be comparable for different countries under same parameters, as every economy tends to be different. Moreover the foreign rating agencies seem to be controlled by big western companies, financial institutions and even governments and thus making the evaluation metrics of these agencies ambiguous and non-transparent for other economies

.- Apurva Pathak(1120157)

Best Comment 2.It would be unwise to blame rating agencies for downgrading corporations due to non performance or sub-standard performance as the problem lies with the corporates and their style of working and not with the way the rating is done by the agencies. Rating the rating agencies will involve addressing more questions like - Who will do it? How will they do it? How valid and reliable will the ratings of rating agencies be and so on and which will only lead to further complications

.- Sharnitha.R(1121044)

8

84%

16%

0%

YES

NO

MAYBE

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MARKET UPDATES

9

v Supreme Court orders Sahara group to refund Rs 17,400 cr to investors with 15% interest per

annum.

v Suzlon inks 332 MW offshore contract with RWE Innogy to deliver 54 offshore turbines,

each with 6.15 MW of rated power.

v SEBI admits to official’s collusion in Pyramid Saimira case.

v Minister of State for Finance Namo Narain Meena withdrew in the Lok Sabha the Securities

and Exchange Board of India (Amendment) Bill, 2009, which provided for raising the

retirement age of the tribunal members from 62 to 65 years.

v SBI slashed retail term deposits rates by 50-100 basis points across tenures.

Calling it a part of rate rationalization, SBI Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri said that lowering

deposit mobilization is due to slowdown.

v India's ranking declined by three places to 59th position in the Global Competitiveness Index

2012-2013 of the World Economic Forum (WEF) owing to "disappointing performance" in

the basic factors underpinning competitiveness.

v Shriram City Union will raise Rs 500 crore through NCDs.

v Bank’s Bad loans to rise in 2013: Fitch

v State-run banks need Rs 90,000 cr to meet Basel-III norms: D Subbarao, RBI governor.

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FINANCE BUZZ - Manisha B 2 MBA F1

NON-BANKING FINANCE COMPANY: The principle business of these companies is that of receiving deposits or that of financial institutions, such as lending, investment in securities, hire purchase finance or equipment leasing. GROSS LOAN PORTFOLIO: All outstanding principal for all outstanding client loans, including current, delinquent and restructured loans, but not loans that have been written off. It does not include interest receivable and employee loans. MUTUAL BENEFIT COMPANY (MBC) –POTENTIAL NIDHI COMPANY A company which is working on the lines of a Nidhi company but has not yet been so declared by Central Government, has minimum net owned fund (NOF) of Rs.10 lakh, has applied to RBI for COR (certificate of registration) and also to Department of company affairs (DCA) for being notified as Nidhi company and has not contravened directions/ regulations of RBI/DCA. STEPPED LENDING: The process by which the borrowers who repay loans on time are eligible for increasingly larger loans, stepped lending keeps initial risk at a minimum while allowing micro entrepreneurs to grow their business and increase their incomes. REMITTANCE: Transfer of funds from people in one place to another place, usually across borders to family and friends. Compared with other sources of money that can fluctuate depending on the political or economic climate, remittances are a relatively steady source of funds. SAVINGS MOBILIZATION: Programs intending to mobilize the capital of the poor and to provide savings accounts , as well as credit services, to micro entrepreneurs and low-income households.

10

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FINANCE QUIZ - Kumaran S 2 MBA F1

1) Recently which norm of NBFC’s did the RBI tighten?

2) How much FDI is allowed in NBFC’s?

3) What are the Funding sources of non-deposit taking NBFCs?

4) Which is the first Agri-based NBFC in India

5) In which year did India join UNO?

6) Which country did not receive financial assistance from the IMF and World Bank during the

Asian contagion crisis of 1997?

7) Which Financial Instrument is widely used for hedging currency positions in INDIA?

8) What is the Name of the Operation that FED came up to prevent from the US economic slow

down?

9) Which Country has the highest National savings Rate?

10) Who is the new CEO of Deutsche Bank India

11

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PHOTO FIND - Jagadish Kumar 2 MBA F2

12

6

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CROSSWORD - Nagarajan 2 MBA F1

Across

3. The soft drink major Coca Cola company is now planning to re-launch this soft drink brand (6) 5. A unit of currency used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. (6) 7. This oil company has strike a deal with CCD to open operations in its outlets. (5) 8. This type of insurance insures vessels for accidental physical damage or destruction caused by certain

perils, such as collision, theft, sinking etc.It covers not only the vessel itself, but also its launches, lifeboats, rafts, furniture, bunkers, stores, supplies, tackle, fittings, equipment, apparatus, machinery, boilers, motor generators and other electrical machinery. (4)

Down

1. An expert on exchange rates, or a foreign currency trader. (7) 2. Jet Airways loses its top position to this airlines service provider in the July results of the aviation sector.

(6) 3. He is the new chief economic advisor. (First name) (8) 4. This company is in the process of signing a deal with the global equity investment firm General Atlantic.

(8) 5. Money which has been collected by a group of people to be used later, such as for an office party (5) 6. The committee which supplies a unique nine-character identification, called a _____________ number, for

each class of security approved for trading in the U.S., to facilitate clearing and settlement. These numbers are used when any buy and sell orders are recorded. (5)

13

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ANSWERS

FINANCE QUIZ

1. Securitization norms (non-banking finance company will have to retain at least 5 per cent of the loan being sold to another entity)

2. 100% 3. Debentures 4. Sustainable Agro-Commercial Finance Ltd

(SAFL) launched by Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd

5. 1945 6. Vietnam 7. SWAPS 8. Operation Twist. 9. Japan 10. Mr. Ravneet Gill

PHOTO FIND

1. George Alexander Muthoot - CEO Muthoot Finance 2. Nanda Kumar – CEO Manapuram Finance 3. Rahul Bajaj- CEO Bajaj Finance 4. Dr.Parekh – Chairman HDFC holdings 5. T. T. Srinivasaraghavan-CEO Sundaram finance

Across

3. RIMZIM—The soft drink major Coca Cola company is now planning to re-launch this soft drink brand 5. KORUNA—A unit of currency used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. 7. ESSAR—This oil company has strike a deal with CCD to open operations in its outlets. 8. HULL—This type of insurance insures vessels for accidental physical damage or destruction caused by

certain perils, such as collision, theft, sinking etc.It covers not only the vessel itself, but also its launches, lifeboats, rafts, furniture, bunkers, stores, supplies, tackle, fittings, equipment, apparatus, machinery, boilers, motor generators and other electrical machinery.

14

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19

Down

1. CAMBIST—An expert on exchange rates, or a foreign currency trader. 2. INDIGO—Jet Airways loses its top position to this airlines service provider in the July results of the

aviation sector. 3. RAGHURAM—He is the new chief economic advisor. (First name) 4. SNAPDEAL—This company is in the process of signing a deal with the global equity investment firm

General Atlantic. 5. KITTY—Money which has been collected by a group of people to be used later, such as for an office

party 6. CUSIP— Committee on Uniform Securities Identification Procedures. The committee which

supplies a unique nine-character identification, called a CUSIP number, for each class of security approved for trading in the U.S., to facilitate clearing and settlement. These numbers are used when any buy and sell orders are recorded.

15

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Faculty Coordinator

Co-ordinators:

Niveda S (MBA F1)

Dr. Anirban Ghatak

Abby Jacob

(MBA F2)

Editors: Creative and Designing:

Sheena Renu

(MBA F1)

Bala Surya Kiran R (MBA F2)

Karthik R (MBA F2)

Stock Analysis:

Articles: Abhishek Jain

(MBA F1)

Akhilesh C (MBA F1)

Ritesh (MBA F1)

Marina Kurian (MBA F1)

Sivakumar (MBA F2)

RBI column:

Crossword: Nidhi Jaiswal (MBA F1)

Nagarajan (MBA F1)

Finance Buzz:

Photo Find Manisha B (MBA F1)

Jagadish Kumar

(MBA F2)

Economic Rollers:

Campus Poll: Dhawal Parmar (MBA F1)

Abhishek Roy

(MBA F1)

Arun P

(MBA F2)

Finance Quiz: Kumaran

(MBA F1)

TEAM NISHKA

Dolor sit amet.

NISHKA 6th September 2012

NISHKA is a monthly finance magazine brought by the students of

the finance club of CHRIST UNIVERSITY Institute of Management

Kengeri Campus. The Idea behind coining the issue of this magazine

is to establish a learning among the students, which helps them to

gain an insight about the world of finance.

- TEAM NISHKA

ABOUT NISHKA

Institute Of Management

Kengeri, Bangalore

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