serials assessment comes of age - valuing the bundles jewell
TRANSCRIPT
Valuing the Bundles: a UW Libraries Perspective
Tim JewellDirector, Information Resources and
Scholarly Communication
ER&L Conference, Austin TXFeb. 2, 2010
2007: “From Shoeboxes to Mashups:ERMs and Decision Support”
Shoebox “Data Elements”
JournalCall NumberPriority (1, 2 or 3)PriceLocationDuplicated?SelectorFundFaculty consultedOther Selectors Consulted
Collection Development Context• Financial
– Chronic budget pressure– Increased importance of
accountability and evidence• Market
– E-journal “packages”– Licensing issues
• Cancellation limits• Long-term access/archiving
– Publisher consolidations• Organizational
– the end of “rugged individualism?”
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Serials Expenditures (+340%) CPI (+89%)Monograph Expenditures (+87%) Monograph Unit (+46%)Monographs Purchased (+12%)
Perc
ent C
hang
e
CPI (+89%)
“Mashup” Data Elements• “Local” Journal Metrics
– Cost/payment– Usage, Cost per use– ILL use– Faculty data (Publications, Citations, Requests, Priority judgments)
• Global Metrics– Retail/list price– ISI Impact Factor– Emerging metrics (Journal Cost-effectiveness, Eigenfactor, UKSG usage
factor, etc.)• Others
– Fund code, selector– Package information (Publisher, cancellation limits, subscribed vs.
unsubscribed, ongoing access rights, archiving via LOCKSS or Portico, etc.)
What reports and comparisons?• Different for types of resources
– Databases– Journals
• Journal to Journal Comparisons• Package Comparisons
– E-books• Different levels of analysis
– “Selector” or Department– “Fund Group” or Broad Area– Campus– University– Consortium
• Trends?
2009 Financial Crisis and UW Libraries • UW budget cuts– 13.5% reduction (1.5% rescission + 12% cut)– Branch libraries closed, staff reductions, etc.– Materials budget cuts (~20% purch. power loss)
• Complex, 3-campus system serving wide range of research, teaching (biomed to int’l studies)
• UW Resources Budget: 79% Serials/21% Monographs
• Shift to e-access (UW @ ~55%) w/licenses
Complex Serials Review Process• Phase One– Reduction targets set, subscription lists generated– Departments contacted, cancellation lists identified– User input on proposed cancellations via survey
• Phase Two (overlapped with end of Phase One)– Publisher negotiations via consortia– Cancellation implications for “bundles” assessed
• For both, supplemental data made available:– Article downloads, cost per use– ISI Impact Factor, Eigenfactor– UW-authored publications & citations in published work
Phase One: Fund-Level Review
Using Access to Create a Serials Decision Database
Presented at the Charleston Conference, November 6, 2009
Hana LevayInformation Resources Librarian
University of Washington
Project Steps• Gathered data (cost, use, impact factor,
package info, license terms, etc.)• Exported table, added cost per use column,
imported back to Access• Created final table• Generated spreadsheets by fund code– .xls format– .pdf (printable) format
Phase 2: Data for Bundle/Package Value Review
• With and without “unsubscribed” titles• Article downloads– Cost per use– “Adjusted” cost per use
• ISI Impact Factor (Sciences & Social Sciences)• Eigenfactor (ditto,mostly)• UW-authored publications (ditto)• UW citations in published work (ditto)
Major journal publishers and costs
Profit/Non-Profit Journal Publisher Pricing Comparisons
(source: JournalPrices.com)
Non-Profit For-Profit Ratio
Mean Journal Price $ 642.78 $ 1,837.88 2.86
Mean Price per Article $ 7.98 $ 24.20 3.03
Mean Price per Citation$ 12.73 $ 39.55 3.11
E-journal Bundling and Access
Elsevier Springer Wiley/Blackwell Sage0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
UnsubscribedSubscribed
Bundles and Cancellation Limits
Elsevier Wiley Blackwell Springer Sage $-
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
2008 ExpenditureEst. ValueProposed CancellationsCancel Limit
Bundles Being Compared
• American Chemical Soc.• American Inst. Of Physics• Cambridge Univ. Press• Elsevier• Johns Hopkins Univ. Press
(Project Muse)• Nature, Science• Oxford University Press
• Sage• Springer/Kluwer• Taylor & Francis
– No UW “bundle” purchased, so individual titles can be freely cancelled
• University of Chicago Press• Wiley/Blackwell
Estimating E-journal Bundle Values:1• “Cost per use” example:– UW Paid $4.4M for 2,686,489 article downloads– Avg. CPU = $1.64 – Est. value of bundle w/100K downloads = $164K
• % of estimated value paid– If paid $100K, $100K/$164K = 61% (“good”)– If paid $200K, $200K/$164K = 122% (“bad”)
Estimating E-journal Bundle Values: 2• Estimated value as % of $ spent for “totals”
“Eigenfactor” example:– UW Paid $4.4M for 63.9 “Eigenfactors”– Avg. Cost/Eigenfactor = $88,955– Est. value of bundle w/10 “eigenfactors” =
$889.5K• % of estimated value paid– If paid $500K, $500K/$889.5K = 57% (“good”)– If paid $1M, $1M/$889.5K = 113% (“not good”)
Trend Lines for All Metrics
Universi
ty of C
hicago
AIP (Amer.
Inst.
Of Physi
cs)
Scien
ce
Annual Revi
ews
ACS
BioOne ("O
ne")
Cell Pres
s
Oxford
Universi
ty Pres
s
Nature
Projec
t Muse
Blackw
ell ST
M
Cambrid
ge Unive
rsity
Press
IOP (Insti
tute of P
hysics)
Duke Unive
rsity
Press
Elsevi
er Sci
ence
Direct
Wiley
Blackw
ell HSS
Sprin
ger Sage
Taylor &
Fran
cis0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
700.00%
800.00%
CPU % PaidAdj CPU % PaidIF % PaidEigenfactor % PaidUW Cites % PaidUW Articles % PaidAvg. % Value Paid
Bundle Averages: 2008
Universi
ty of C
hicago
AIP (Amer.
Inst.
Of Physi
cs)
Scien
ce
Annual Revi
ews
ACS
BioOne ("O
ne")
Cell Pres
s
Oxford Unive
rsity
Press
Nature
Projec
t Muse
Blackw
ell ST
M
Cambrid
ge Unive
rsity
Press
IOP (Insti
tute of P
hysics)
Duke Unive
rsity
Press
Elsevi
er Sci
ence
Direct
Wiley
Blackw
ell HSS Sag
e
Sprin
ger
Taylor &
Fran
cis0.00%
50.00%
100.00%
150.00%
200.00%
250.00%
300.00%
350.00%
400.00%
450.00%
% of Value Paid
Cost per Use
Universi
ty of C
hicago
AIP (Amer.
Inst.
Of Physi
cs)
Scien
ce
Annual Revi
ews
ACS
BioOne ("O
ne")
Cell Pres
s
Oxford Unive
rsity
Press
Nature
Projec
t Muse
Blackw
ell ST
M
Cambrid
ge Unive
rsity
Press
IOP (Insti
tute of P
hysics)
Duke Unive
rsity
Press
Elsevi
er Sci
ence
Direct
Wiley
Blackw
ell HSS
Sprin
ger Sage
Taylor &
Fran
cis0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
700.00%
800.00%
CPU % PaidAdj CPU % PaidAvg. % Value Paid
Impact Factor, Eigenfactor & Averages
Universi
ty of C
hicago
AIP (Amer.
Inst.
Of Physi
cs)
Scien
ce
Annual Revi
ews
ACS
BioOne ("O
ne")
Cell Pres
s
Oxford
Universi
ty Pres
s
Nature
Projec
t Muse
Blackw
ell ST
M
Cambrid
ge Unive
rsity
Press
IOP (Insti
tute of P
hysics)
Duke Unive
rsity
Press
Elsevi
er Sci
ence
Direct
Wiley
Blackw
ell HSS
Sprin
ger Sage
Taylor &
Fran
cis0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
700.00%
800.00%
IF % PaidEigenfactor % PaidAvg. % Value Paid
Costs per UW Citation, Article, Avg.
Universi
ty of C
hicago
AIP (Amer.
Inst.
Of Physi
cs)
Scien
ce
Annual Revi
ews
ACS
BioOne ("O
ne")
Cell Pres
s
Oxford
Universi
ty Pres
s
Nature
Projec
t Muse
Blackw
ell ST
M
Cambrid
ge Unive
rsity
Press
IOP (Insti
tute of P
hysics)
Duke Unive
rsity
Press
Elsevi
er Sci
ence
Direct
Wiley
Blackw
ell HSS
Sprin
ger Sage
Taylor &
Fran
cis0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
UW Cites % PaidUW Articles % PaidAvg. % Value Paid
Bundling Comparison ResultsMore Cost-Effective• University Presses
– Chicago– Cambridge – Oxford– Johns Hopkins
• Annual Reviews• Nature, Science• American Chemical Soc.• American Inst. Of Physics
Less Cost-Effective• Elsevier• Wiley/Blackwell• Springer/Kluwer• Sage• Taylor & Francis
– No UW “bundle” purchased, so individual titles can be freely cancelled
Selected Bundle Details
CPU % Paid Adj CPU % Paid IF % Paid Eigenfactor % Paid
UW Cites % Paid
UW Articles % Paid
Avg. % Value Paid
0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
700.00%
800.00%
Elsevier Science DirectWileyBlackwell HSSBlackwell STMSpringerSageTaylor & Francis
Practical Implications?• Confirmed informal assessments– Value of some bundles was high• Retained• Disallowed individual title cancellations
– Value of others was low• Talking points with publishers• One bundle (Springer) dropped• Focus on others for future renegotiation
Another Application:Estimating “Add-on Collection” Value
Factor Additional “Avg. Cost Per” Est. Value
Impact Factor 500 $575 $287,500
Eigenfactor 2 $68,823 $137,646
UW Articles 100 $1,158 $115,800
UW Citations 3,000 $39 $117,000
Further Questions• Disciplinary Differences and Metrics• Metric inter-correlations• Replication/validation• “Local” Eigenfactor?• Variation or Stability over time – use 5 years of data?
• Construct a value index?