session 4 - the role of efficiency in a residential pv market presented by christian comes

8/7/2019 Session 4 - The Role of Efficiency in a Residential PV Market Presented by Christian Comes

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Christian Comes

The role of efficiency

In a residential PV MarketExperience from Germany

SANYO Component EuropeSolar Division

October 2009


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2 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008

Contents

Introduction to SANYO Solar

PV Model for Energy Independency

German Market since 1995

Potential Market

Sustainability

Market Drivers: System Performance

Market Drivers: System Cost

Market Drivers: Turnover/Profitability

UK Landscape

Market Outlook


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SANYOs History in the Photovoltaic Business

1997 HIT solar cells mass-produced and marketed

2000 The Worlds first double-side PV module, HIT Double, Started on sale

2001 The one of the worlds largest solar monument, Solar Ark completed

2004 The new factory (A Building )at Nishikinohama completed.The brand-new HIT power cell and module produced.

1975 R&D for amorphous silicon (a-Si) solar cells started.

1980 The first successful industrialization of a-Si solar cells in the world.

1990 R&D for HIT solar cellsStarted.

1992 The first installation of the grid -Connected

1994 The Residential PV system started on sale.

2002 HIT PV modules marketed in North America and Europe.

2008 Shiga factory started production.Total HIT Cel Production Capacity becomes 340MW.

Total HIT Cell Production Capacity became 260MW.2007The production of the HIT cells begins in B building at Nishikinohama factory.Total HIT Cells Production Capacity became 160MW.

2005

HIT200W PV Modules released (The Cell efficiency 19.5%)Monterrey Factory started production.2003


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HIT Solar Cells

HIT:

Heterojunction with

Intrinsic Thin-layer

The worlds highestsolar cell conversion efficiency

23%(laboratory)

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Year

Conve

rsionefficiency(%

)

p-Si solar cells,other companies(production, Top level)

19.7%(production)

23%(laboratory)

22%(production)


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SANYO Solar Production Capacity

1000

500

07 20100

FY 2020

2000

1500

3000

2500

4000

3500

08 09

ProductionCapacity(MW/Year)

HIT

Thin-film

HIT Scale of

600MW

Expand sales of SANYO-only HIT Solar Cells

HIT cells to target high end market.Thin Film solar cells to capture lowend commercial market

Scope of business goal by FY 2020 for both

HIT and thin-film is a world share of 10%


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UK oil production has seen two peaks, in the mid 1980s and late1990s, with a decline to around300103 m (1.9 million barrels)per day in the early 1990s. Monthly oil production peaked at13.5106 m (84.9 million barrels)in January 1985 although the highest annual production was seen in1999, with offshore oil production in that year of

407

106

m (2559 million barrels)and had declined to231106 m (1452 million barrels)in 2007. This was the largest decrease of any other oil exporting nationin the world, and has led to Britain becoming a net importer of crudefor the first time in decades, as recognized by the energy policy of the

United Kingdom.

The production is expected to fall to one-third of its peak by 2020


7/227 Copyright SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved 2008


Yearly energy consumption in Germany (TWh)

-Electricity: 600-Gasoline: 67-Diesel: 108-Calefaction oil: 616-Calefaction gas: 900Total 2,291

PV area necessary to cover total Energy consumption:

2,500,000 Ha* = 300m2/inh. (ground) = 100m2/inh. (roof)

Todays area in Germany devoted to energy crops:

1,500,000 Ha

*) Calefaction consumption is reduced by factor 4 with heat pump*) Module efficiency 18%*) PR 85%*) Usage of ground systems: 33% of surface covered with modules

*) Irradiance yearly 1040 kWh/m2

Source: Photon 9/2007




*) Source: Photon 4/2007

PV vs. Bio-fuelsPhotovoltaic pros:

-More efficient energy use (50 to 150 times better)*-Energy harvesting all year round

-Low operating costs-No single-crop related problems-No pesticides

Biofuel pros:

-Lower CAPEX-Use of legacy vehicle technology-Works for traditional branch




*) Source: SCE research

PV: Where does the money go?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

System Cost

breakdown

Installation

Inverter

Materials

Planning

Wholesale

Module

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Module Cost

breakdown

Module

Cell

Wafer

Ingot

Si raw material

Standard cSi module2009 4kWp Rooftop System



German Market since 1995

In Germany, the first use of PV was off-grid

Politically oriented (anti-nuclear) off-grid users were the main customersegment.

PV incentive programs (1,000 roofs, 100,000 roofs) opened up a different

market: grid connected systems on private roofs.

EEG law (2000) and its revisions changed the game:

-Investment in PV as main goal-Connected to grid as standard technology

-Price reduction with goal of Grid Parity in a few years

Result was a booming market from year 2004 and system pricereduction.



Potential Market

Munich, residential area



Potential Market

London, residential area



Efficiency and sustainability

An average persons consumption of electricity at home is

1,000 kWh

The offset of this consumption is a system of ~1kWp

Roofspace is the most precious asset for CO2 reduction with PV

Upcoming developments (electric mobility, heat pump wide use)increase the use of electricity in the household.

The ultimate goal is to allow big areas of population to offset theirown emissions without consumption of non-local resources.



Sustainability: 1kWp system size

SANYO: 5.8m2

cSi: 6.9m2

mcSi: 7.9m2

CdTe: 10m2

aSi: 16m2



Market Drivers in Residential Environment

EndCustomer

CostSystemPerformance

Professional

Turnover Profitability



System Performance

The efficiency of grid inverters has improved over the last 20 years

Specially, the inverters without transformer are about 2% more efficient

Bigger inverters usually have higher efficiency

High efficiency modules can avoid shadowed areas keeping system size

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Efficiency of Inverters



Cost (CAPEX)

Efficiency is the key factor for BoS cost:

Mounting SystemCablingInstallation TimeSales EffortAC Equipment

Do not depend on kWp size, but mostly on area (or per system)

In Germany, typical residential systems have changed from 3kWto 5kW from 2005 to 2009

Typical System Cost difference (EUR/W):SANYO vs. cSi: 0.15SANYO vs. CIS: 0.30SANYO vs. aSi: 0.60

BoS cost differencies become more important with lower system

prices, and will be key at grid parity conditions



Turnover/Profitability (Installer)

In most PV situations, the size of the system (kWp) is determined bythe available space.

More efficiency = More turnover for installer

At the same effort (warehouse, sales, administration)

The mounting of flat roof systems can be done with low qualifiedpersonell. This kind of staff can be contracted with flexibility and at lowcost, but usually they come from low-wage areas.

The Process (Germany)

aSi/CIS was installed during periods of undersupplyaSi/CIS was/is installed due to its visual appealCdTe is installed due to low system priceIn 2009, oversupply of cSi destroyed the market for aSi/CIS2HF/2009, undersupply stimulated again Thin Film



Turnover/Profitability

End customers have two KPI:

1- IRR (independent of efficiency)2- Turnover (Financed systems after pay-back)

Focus on IRR drives customers to the cheapest price per kWpFocus on Turnover drives customers to high efficiency

Full financed systems and fully owned systems have usually afocus on turnover unless explained otherwise by advisors

The process (Germany)

During the pioneer years, focus was in autosupply (high efficiency)During module shortage years, this turned to just preferenceCommercially exploited roofs (rented) focus more on IRRPrivate owned roofs mostly try to install more kWp



UK Landscape

What is going to be the UK market like?

Residential roofs ( shift of commercial roofs towards low-efficiency

Flat roofs -> Market for high efficiency modules

Future development towards Grid Parity

@ 2 EUR/Watt system price, Efficiency Delta * 0.7 = Price Delta


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Market Outlook

How will the World Market take shape?

2010 2012: road to end-user Grid parity

Market based on residential, wealthy customers is removing most low-cost, low-quality players from the market

Consolidation will happen at the middle price segment

High efficiency solutions will improve market share

2012 2020: fight for high volume

PV will expand to different shaped markets and new energy supplybusiness models will arise.

System price will decrease further

It is impossible to know how those markets will look in the future


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Christian Comes

SANYO Solar

Technology

SANYO Component EuropeSolar Division

October 2009

session 4 - the role of efficiency in a residential pv market presented by christian comes

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