session 42 peter grundevik

YOUR MARITIME SOLUTION PARTNER

Static data used to handle dynamic – real time risksPeter Grundevik

SSPA Sweden

[email protected]

www.sspa.se

TRANSPORTFORUM Linköping, Jan. 13-14, 2010


BaSSy project info• http://www.surship.eu/project/bassy/overview• http://www.sjofartsverket.se/forskningsdb/• Jan 2006 - June 2009• Partners

– SSPA Sweden, Co-ordinator & Research– VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland)– DTU (Technical University of Denmark)– MSI Design (Sweden)– GateHouse (Denmark)– Chalmers Shipping & Marine Technology (Sweden)

• BaSSy advisory group from Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Åland• Financiers: Nordic Council of Ministers, Danish Maritime Fund,

Finnish Ministry, Finnish Maritime Administration, Swedish Maritime Administration, VINNOVA

http://www.surship.eu/project/bassy/overview

http://www.sjofartsverket.se/forskningsdb/

http://www.dtu.dk/english.aspx

http://www.gatehouse.dk/Default.aspx?

http://www.chalmers.se/smt/

http://www.chalmers.se/smt/

http://www.chalmers.se/


Background

• Cope with maritime risks– Rigorous risk analysis to identify most relevant risk reduction

efforts– Proposed efforts have to be assessed in forehand– Commonly used risk analysis methods are complex and time

consuming


BaSSy results

• BaSSy tool, that allows estimation of the risk caused by collision and grounding– efficient & easier risk analysis and assessments– IALA took it as standard (IWRAP IALA Waterway Risk Assessment

Program)– assessment using same theoretical basis– easier to compare and validate risk analyses– gathered experiences into a database


• Case study in the Sea of Åland

- FSA measures study- traffic separation

zones- reporting route plans- blackout notification- modified route layout- traffic control

- Proposal- Traffic separation

scheme- Deep water route

- Accepted by IMO MSC for enforcement

BaSSy results


BaSSy results

• Collision and grounding analysis in the Baltic Sea

• Web database www.vtt.fi/proj/bassy/– guidelines for risk assessment– links for software downloading– Documents and user results

FSA process using BaSSy tool

The objectives of the BaSSy FSA web pagesThe BaSSy FSA web pages are established to provide to the coastal states of the Baltic Sea a portal with an access to the tools and guidelines for performing Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) studies in order to analyse the risks in the Baltic Sea area and to assess the effectiveness of different risk control options to decrease the risks. The tools available on these web pages were mainly developed in the Nordic project BaSSy (Baltic Sea Safety). (Read more information about BaSSy)

http://www.vtt.fi/proj/bassy/

http://www.vtt.fi/proj/bassy/

http://www.surship.eu/project/bassy/overview


BaSSy results

• Human factor analysis – impact on risks– Designing of a S-mode radar interface– Comparison of using north up /

head-up electronic chart presentation

• Man Technology Organisation profiling of a VTS centre– Identify human factors design discrepancies– Operational procedures, organisation– Human system interaction Control centre, Workstation, Monitoring system


BaSSy results

• VTS collision & grounding warning concept– VTS supervise ship traffic with radar and AIS (+ VHF radio)– Operator may call the ship if collision risk / passing fairway

limitations – Interesting coverage area increases– Manual survey & frequent analysis of big areas - heavy

– Automatic tool identifying potential dangerous situations- facilitate the VTS operator work


EfficienSea

• Further development of the dynamical warning concept within EfficienSea

– EfficienSea (Efficient, Safe and Sustainable Traffic at Sea) is an EU Baltic Sea Region project, 2009-2012, DAMSA - Lead Partner

– Work activity: WP 6.3 Dynamic algorithm for analyzing online-situations Partners: SSPA, VTT, Finnish Maritime Administration


Study steps

• Interviews with VTS operators - needs and demands for a decision-making support tool

• Questionnaire• Identification and analysis of typical accident scenarios• AIS data - important source. Quality and limits investigated• C++ code - convert AIS raw data• MATLAB codes - analyse the data• Test case stydy - analyse typical distances to fairway

limitations and passing ships• Dynamical warning system - decision-making concept for

VTS operators - three separate modes; – Grounding– Collision – Identification of drifting vessels


Accident case studies

• 160 different real groundings, contacts, collisions and near-collisions have been analysed

• Criteria for sorting out a critical situation from a normal one

• Actual time frames


Typical time to react - groundings

Time to react –Grounding of ships

Route Divergence - minutes before

grounding

Fairway Exceedance -

minutes before grounding

DistanceRoute-Ground -

nm

Distance Fairway-Ground -

Speed - knots

Channels, harbours, archipelagos

AVERAGE 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 10.2

MAX 15.0 6.7 2.4 1.0 38.0

MIN 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0

STDEV 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 7.2

Open water

AVERAGE 19.5 8.9 3.4 1.7 9.7

MAX 110.0 52.0 18.3 9.1 20.0

MIN 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8

STDEV 21.3 11.7 4.3 2.3 3.9

All

AVERAGE 12.0 4.9 2.2 0.7 9.0

MAX 110.0 52.0 18.3 9.1 38.0

MIN 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8

STDEV 17.7 9.4 3.5 1.8 5.6


Typical time to react - collisions

Time to react –Collision of ships

Manoeuvre for collision

avoidance should have

been started - minutes before

colliding

When vessel started collision avoiding actions

- minutes before

colliding

Distance usualmanoeuvrecollision

avoidance should be started,

recognising the other

vessel - nm

Distance to the other

vessel when starting

collision avoiding actions

- nm

Speed - knots

Overtaking

AVERAGE 12.16 1.45 1.47 0.14 10.26

MAX 36.00 3.00 6.00 0.48 22.00

MIN 0.43 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.00

STDEV 13.69 1.31 2.02 0.16 4.71

Non Overtaking

AVERAGE 8.54 1.65 2.66 0.52 10.83

MAX 30.00 7.50 8.75 2.00 18.00

MIN 0.92 0.08 0.10 0.02 3.00

STDEV 6.89 1.70 1.92 0.50 4.47

All

AVERAGE 9.01 1.69 2.27 0.47 10.47

MAX 36.00 7.50 7.50 2.00 22.00

MIN 0.43 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.00

STDEV 8.11 1.66 1.68 0.49 4.56


Conclusions from the accident studies

• Low CPA are common• Overtaking in narrow fairways - small margins• Sometimes small margins even in open sea• Enough time to warn before groundings in

open sea• Sometimes also enough time to warn in

limited fairways• Little time to warn vessels before collision


AIS message 17 protocol – route plan

• Ship waypoints and/or route plan report• Check route divergence of vessels• Could lead to earlier warnings for the VTS

operator• Could also be used for ship collision warnings• Updating crucial

Fairway limits

Leaving route

Exceeding fairway limits

Shipping lane/ intended route

Traffic distribution


Statistical + dynamic/real-time AIS data

• Historical AIS data for the area is used to map the traffic behaviour

• Real-time AIS data is used to determine possible present critical collision and grounding situations


Cell analysis

Speed

Heading

Middle of river

Speed

Heading

At quay


Cell analysis

Heading for

west

east

Middle of fairway Speed distributions for all ships (left)For ships >100m (right)


Cell analysis

Anchored ships

Course

Heading

Speed

COG-Head


Three scenarios investigated - modes designed

• Graphical module for ship collision warning– including critical passages– indicator and active warning system

• Module for ship grounding warning– based on AIS statistics in predefined grid cells in a

fairway area– identifies unusual speeds, courses and positions of

certain vessel classes (ship size and type)

• Module for identification of drifting vessels– special conditions for a drifting ship can be identified by

exceptional speed and course


Ship Collision warning

• Graphical support• Identify passages at

critical points• Simple information -

handled easily• Information only to

involved vessels


Ship grounding warning

• Grid of cells defined - more sensitive if size & form follow fairway

• Real traffic statistics• Saving the data in a

matrix• Flexible handling adjusted

to new traffic scenarios• Small computer resources


Ship grounding warning

• Every time a ship enters a cell, the matrix is called

• Check if ship exceeds typical– course over grounds– headings– speed ranges– fairway areas

• Time span is typically about 12 minutes

• Easier to detect un-normal situations early in wider fairways

Empty parts of the cells

Blue = data points

Grid


Identification of drifting vessels

• Statistically every ship has 2-4 blackouts/ year

• Drifters seldom report to authorities• Important other duties late reporting• Algorithm identifying drifting vessels

– speed drops, divergence of COG and heading

• Not all drifters can be identified


All: collision, grounding, drifting warning modes

• Downloading newest electronic sea chart common

• Also possible to download– common routes for the area– typical traffic distributions and densities– efficient dynamic information about the fairway

• dangerous parts of the planned route• alternative routes• appropriate speeds


Fairway analysis

Halmstad


Cell analysis close to accidents


Conclusions

• Identifying collision and grounding candidates can support VTS operator

• Collision scenarios do not offer a lot of time Simple visualisation of suitable meeting spot to avoid difficult parts

• Only vessels involved need to be informed. Number of warnings - limited

• Grounding scenario might be detected early based on AIS data and statistics

• Algorithm for identification of drifters can be useful


Discussion - Questions

• How much time is needed to alert bridge personnel?• Methods to alert bridge personnel and to be used on

the VTS? • Contact between VTS operator and the ship - VHF

radio?• What is the responsibility of the VTS operator?• What is a safe passage - appropriate CPA?• VTS can get support from a system - relay on it?

• Concepts may be used onboard - not only on VTS • VTS operator and support system, has full focus on

ship traffic, may be used to get complementary eyes• VTS has a strategic view – common time frame: 10 min

range• Bridge crew - operational view down to 1 minute

perspective

session 42 peter grundevik

Technology

bassy results bassy

collision risk

bassy results collision

risk analyses

risk assessment fsa

bassy tool links

bassy results case study

bassy project infohttp